Lakers New Year’s Resolutions

Kurt —  January 1, 2007

I posted the full list over at LAist, and while some of it is aimed at a mass audience (hence the simplistic explanation of the pick-and-roll) they are all things we can hope for. Here are a couple resolutions for the team.

Get healthy. It’s one of your resolutions — to eat better, to drop a few pounds, to actually use the gym membership. For the Lakers, they need to get their best players off the training table and on to the court. Kobe Bryant missed the first few games of the season recovering from off-season knee surgery and just recently has he started to get his explosiveness back. Lamar Odom sprained a knee a few weeks ago and will not be back for a few more weeks. And just in time for 2007, Kwame Brown has sprained an ankle, meaning a few weeks sitting and watching (leaving the team thin at center). There have been precious few games where the entire group has been healthy.

Raise ticket prices. Well, there should be at least one resolution on this list they will follow through on.

to Lakers New Year’s Resolutions

  1. Just so everyone knows, I had plans for a very interesting, first time ever here kind of post today, but it seems to be delayed. It happens, but by later tonight I’ll try to at least put up some thoughts on life without Kwame.


  2. Life Without Kwame. That’s a Talking Heads song, right?


  3. I think we should rename the 2006-07 season, the season of getting to know all your teammates at crunch time.

    At least we should have a complete handle on the entire squad by the All-Star break. Here’s hoping we can use the information and skills learned after the break.


  4. As much as the injuries do put a damper on things some I’m fully expecting us to be a contender come next year. There’s a bond being developed and improvement coming that certainly gives life to a bright future.

    Not to look too far ahead, but seeing what our pieces (all of them) have done so far what does everyone see happening in the post season?


  5. CTD, the problem with the playoffs this year is that there are just brutal first-round matchups in the West. If the playoffs started today the Lakers would get Utah in the first round, which is better than getting Phoenix/Dallas/San Antonio, but not by much. Health will matter a lot that time of year, and for the Lakers to do anything they need to have everyone back and ready to go.


  6. New Year’s thoughts about Laker (and NBA) forecasting and speculation:

    If NBA teams were equally likely to win or lose each game, their likelihoods of winning or losing can be predicted by the binomial distribution. The most frequent outcome for the season would be 42-42, but other outcomes would be possible by chance alone.

    To get a proportion of wins to losses that are unlikely according to the binomial distribution may require at least a W/L percentage range of 60-40 (or 40-60). Such teams can be said to be truly good (or bad) by definition.

    Based on their current won/lost record, the Lakers are clearly one of those truly good teams–currently projecting a season’s won/loss record better than 60/40 or about 52-32.

    I don’t have the data at my fingertips, but I suspect that a similar calculation last year at this time would not have separated the Lakers from the binomial average.

    Last year, both Kobe and Lamar were healthy. This year, health has limited one or the other at different times. Despite having less of the big two, the Lakers have more wins!

    If the Lakers achieve the same end of season “bump” they had last year, it is possible that the Lakers will climb above .667 to .700 or higher, placing them near the top W/L for the entire league and a W/L of 59-25.

    The Lakers could crash without Lamar and Kwame–and not recover enough to do as well as last year. Other “big time” teams, like San Antonio, Dallas, or Phoenix, could crash as well with injuries or team dissension. We don’t really know–and all of our statistical comparisons are from the past, not the future.

    This is all we know for sure: the Lakers have separated themselves from the pack this year. Is that about all we can expect even when everyone is healthy?

    I don’t believe that the Laker team expects to wait until next year to be a championship team–even if we are pleased with obvious progress and downstream opportunities. The only REAL numbers that we can analyze, W/L, put their prospects in play.