I agree with you that the Spurs could drain themselves if their stars are playing major minutes all year long. They are a relatively old team across the front line (not their spark plug TP though). The question is really how many minutes are their starters + Ginobli averaging a game?

Suns–this team has trouble with opponents who have height and skill down on the block. The Lakers certainly fit the profile with Bynum/Odom on the offensive end and Brown (and now Bynum) on the defensive end. The Lakers also have a new defensive stopper on the wing (Ariza) who may also be pressed into duty guarding quick point guards on occasion.

Mavericks–Golden State/Nellie tactically exposed them last year, and the past two postseasons have traumatically affected their confidence. We have seen the way to contain Nowitzki (he’s bothered by tough and quick defenders), and the addition of Ariza should help in guarding both Dirk and Josh Howard. On the offensive end, Kobe absolutely kills the Mavs.

Jazz–This team does scare me more than the first two. Boozer and Milsap (and even Harpring) are tough, physical players down low. The health of Kwame is important vs the Jazz. Kirilenko is also very tough, but IMO he is a bigger threat when he is more of a focal point in the offense (which was apparent in our first two games with them). With a healthy Boozer and/or Okur, Utah’s primary play is the pick-and-roll with Williams and Boozer/Okur, relegating Kirilenko to a spot-up shooter, which is his weakest link. Interestingly enough, the Lakers match up well with a Utah team at its full strength. Kwame can guard Boozer, and Odom can guard Okur, with Bynum coming off the bench against Utah’s second string to devastating effect.

Hornets–Chris Paul. Chris Paul…spot-up shooters…Laker defense that collapses to guard Paul after penetration….not a good combination. However, this tendency can be rubbed out over a seven-game series. Stay home on the shooters, force Paul to beat you with jumpers. Lakers in five.

Nuggets–A healthy Laker team will beat a healthy Denver team in a seven-game series, although it’s possible that George Karl realizes how much better Denver is when Anthony Carter plays more minutes at the expense of JR Smith. Even so, I think the Lakers would take them in a series, even with Nene returning (I fear Klieza more than Nene).

Rockets–There’s a reason Houston hasn’t been winning any series recently. McGrady does fade somewhat in the playoffs, and Yao’s endurance would be affected against the Lakers, who can both run well and play well in half court. In addition, Kwame’s post defense really bothers Yao, and Kobe will destroy McGrady over a seven-game series.

Warriors–It’s well documented already that Phil won’t fall into Nellie’s small ball trap.

Spurs–In our favor, Kwame usually does a pretty good job on Duncan. The key is slowing the penetration of Parker and Ginobli, and staying with Spur spot-up shooters. Kobe should guard Finley and not Bowen. Luke should guard Bowen, and Ariza/Kobe should guard Ginobli and/or Parker. The addition of Ariza really helps us against the Spurs. Bynum should dominate their second unit on both ends. On defense, his recognition of penetration has taken a quantum leap over the past two weeks. If the Lakers stay healthy and continue to improve, this will be an extremely competitive series.