Preview and Chat: the Dallas Mavericks

Reed —  April 4, 2008

(I’m tied up at work today, so this will be brief. Fill in thoughts in the comments. –Reed)

Records: Lakers 51-24 (3 seed); Mavs 47-28 (7 seed)
Offensive Ratings: 114.2 (3rd); 112.8 (8th)
Defensive Ratings: 107.2 (6th); 106.9 (5th)
Projected Lineups: Lakers: Fisher, Kobe, Radmanovic, Odom, Gasol; Dallas: Kidd, Terry, Howard, Dirk, Dampier

Dallas Coming In: Dallas posted their win of the season last game, with a decisive, critical win over Golden State. The victory was huge on several fronts: the unexpected return of Dirk, gaining a game and the tiebreaker over Golden State, and — perhaps most importantly — the first victory over a winning team since the Kidd trade (they had previously gone 0-10). The Mavs now have a 2 game edge on the Warriors with the tiebreak, so their playoff standing looks much more secure than a few days ago. Dirk is still limited with the ankle and knee sprains, admitting that he’s mostly relegated to being a spot up shooter on offense and unable to run in transition.

This means more reliance on Josh Howard, who is on a tear, averaging 30.2 points over the last 5 games. Howard is probably the key matchup for the game, as he seriously exposed Radmanovic and Walton in the last matchup, constantly burning them with penetration in the first half. The Lakers might be wise to go to the Fisher/Sasha/Kobe lineup to better defend Kidd/Terry/Howard on the perimeter.

Most consider the Kidd deal a disaster, but the numbers only show them being mildly worse with him than Harris. With Kidd on the court, the Mavs offensive rating is 112.4 and the defense rating is 105.3. With Harris on the court, the Mavs had a 117.3 offensive rating and a 106.5 defensive rating. Surprisingly, Kidd has hurt the offense and helped the defense, but this actually makes sense given his inability to contribute in an isolation rich offense and the team’s inability to defend big guards with Terry and Harris out there together. The real problem with the trade lies in the other pieces lost in the deal — 2 draft picks and Diop, who was probably their best defensive player (the Mavs had a team leading 102.9 defensive rating with Diop on the court).

The local media has been all over the Mavs lately — questioning the Kidd deal, blasting Avery’s coaching, and constantly recalling the past two playoff collapses. Avery in particular is under serious scrutiny, with almost everyone calling for his head for refusing to stop micromanaging and just turn the offense over to Kidd. While this is probably heat of the moment overreaction, there is a clear tension between Avery’s desire to call plays and run isolation sets and Kidd’s increased effectiveness in transition and while freelancing. Something has to give, and I’m guessing it will ultimately not be the new $20 million point guard.

Lakers Coming In: Gasol came back and his ankle seems to have responded well. The second half of the Portland game was the first time in a while that the defense has looked sharp, it being only the third in fifteen games that they have held the opponent under 100 points. The Lakers are in a heated battle for the division and playoff seeding, so it is critical they win games like this at home, especially with Dirk hobbling. No one wants to drop to the 5 seed and face Utah in the first round. My keys to the game:

(1) Odom needs to attack Dirk on offense, as he has no chance staying with Lamar’s speed with his leg injuries;

(2) Defend the perimeter. Make Howard and Dirk take contested jump shots. Force the ball to Kidd late in the shot clock — make him score. This might mean less Radmanovic and more Sasha.

(3) Rebound. Two games ago, Dampier looked like Dwight Howard, going for 17 and 16 before fouling out. Gasol is still rusty, but he needs to do a better job of keeping a body on Damp and holding Dallas to one shot.

Your Thoughts:

Two great comments I saw recently:

Drrayeye on putting all our pieces together as they return from injuries:

The Zenmeister has fifteen “pieces,” but two of his biggest pieces, Pau and ‘Drew, have never played together at all. Two of his most dependable pieces, Kobe and Derek, have nagging injuries that will not go away during the playoffs. At least one of his pieces, Trevor, will not be making his return debut until the playoffs. We’ll have to make due with Ira, a wiley veteran stand-in. There may even be minor stand-in roles for Mbenga and the other Kobe. Only time will tell.

The Zenmeister needs to put Humpty back together again when Humpty was never together in the first place–and Phil does not have all the kings horses or men (though his backup support is pretty good). Zenman better understand the Japanese “just in time” approach to product delivery perfectly!

Nomuskles with a running recap of the Portland game.

Seeding Thoughts:

Open questions for the forum: Are we better off as the 3 seed playing Houston in the first round, but then facing San Antonio or New Orleans on the road in the second? Would a healthy Dallas be the scariest 7 or 8 seed in playoff history? Who is the one team you would absolutely want to see on the other side of the bracket?

–Reed

Reed

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