Since Buss is an expert poker player - an apt anology.

However, other teams play the game also. If the Lakers match Turiaf, others might think they are less likely to match Sasha - the luxury tax is beginning to bind. The real question is going to be Bynum next year, in conjunction with Ariza. That will set the tone for Farmar the following year and then Kobe and Gasol.

This year the Lakers are in a peculiar spot - salarywise - because of the Gasol trade and Lamar’s large, expiring contract.

Comment by Craig W. — July 15, 2008 @ 10:47 am

Sort of off topic, but a Sasha note. AK over at the LA Times blog notes that Sasha has switched agents again, going back to Rob Pelinka. That has slowed his signing with the Lakers or anyone.

http://lakersblog.latimes.com/lakersblog/2008/07/that-explains-a.html

Comment by Kurt — July 15, 2008 @ 10:50 am

Nice write-up … offers a convincing explaination of why the Clips get punked on a regular basis.

Comment by Rick — July 15, 2008 @ 10:50 am

Another off-topic, inside baseball (blogging) post, but I found this interesting:

http://thebiglead.com/?p=6686

Comment by Kurt — July 15, 2008 @ 11:11 am

I’ll go all in and say that the Lakers DO NOT match!

Comment by Bingo T. Klown — July 15, 2008 @ 11:29 am

See, this is where 2009 is a tricky year. In ‘09, I believe Bynum will obviously be matched, Ariza will likely be re-signed as an up-and-comer (and a UCLA alum) and Odom is someone I definitely hope is re-signed. That’s why the Lakers a) can’t match Turiaf and b) can’t be too aggressive this year. Kurt Thomas, Garbo, and Mo Evans are all I request

I wonder… I don’t put any weight into it, but is it possible Buss might say screw the luxury tax and let’s go for a potential dynasty? I only say that since he’s 74 and this will likely be the last series of great Laker teams he sees in his lifetime.

Comment by Troy — July 15, 2008 @ 11:40 am

I agree with 1, as in, matching Ronny sends a clear signal that the Lakers are in a weakened state to match Sasha. Not matching Ronny probably signals to the league that the Lakers are “all in” on Sasha.

Comment by beyondblue — July 15, 2008 @ 11:40 am

Both Bill and several posters have talked about “matching” an offer on Bynum. I think there is a qualitative difference in how you treat a potential star like Bynum and a role player ala Sahsa or Ronny.

In the case of Bynum, you need to keep him happy and wanting to stay with the team. That means that this summer you start negotiations with him and his agent about the extention and you reach some sort of deal. This is what was done with LeBron and Wade, for example, they did not become restricted free agents that tested the market because the teams wanted to show those players how much they mattered to the franchise. It is a slap in the face to try to lowball him with a qualifying offer and let other teams set the market (which will be low if they are sure you will match).

Ronny and Sasha are role players and there are other players that can fill their shoes. You make a qualifying offer, try to get a good deal, but worry a little less about keeping them happy. There are other Sashas, there are few Bynums.

Comment by Kurt — July 15, 2008 @ 12:06 pm

Kurt,
I agree with you about Bynum. All you have to do is look across town to see how not to do things. I do expect the front office is talking to Bynum and his agent, however, I doubt we will ever hear of this. I also doubt Dr Buss/Mitch is starting off by low-balling the young player. I do feel they are probably trying to get a look at him before any final offer is made - meaning nothing will be finalized before the end of training camp, at the earliest. I suspect this will not insult anyone in Bynum’s camp.

Comment by Craig W. — July 15, 2008 @ 12:12 pm

No limit hold em’ and the Lakers. I love it. But what about reading your opponents hands? In poker, it means studying your opponents mannerisms. In basketball, that means taking into account how close a team is to the luxury tax. The Lakers could match every offer that an opposing team made for it’s players and venture way above the luxury tax. I could call every bet in a poker game. Both the Lakers and myself would be feared, but we’d also be dumb.

Comment by Brandon Hoffman — July 15, 2008 @ 12:13 pm

If I had access to Jerry Buss’ financial data I could make this and every other financial decision in a heartbeat. As presently constructed, I would be confident that the Lakers could advance to the second in the foreseeable future. Meaning the Lakers will profit from at least two playoff series in addition to the revenue I estimate during the regular season. In my opinion, Ronny would be instrumental in that confidence. My only concern at that point would be that I make more than my highest paid employee. Which means as long as I profit more than Kobe, I agree to exceed the luxury tax.

Comment by Brandon Hoffman — July 15, 2008 @ 12:18 pm

9. Craig, you and I are on the same page, I assume this has started but will go through the start of camp, there is no rush. I just wanted to point out the difference in methodology.

Comment by Kurt — July 15, 2008 @ 12:20 pm

Kurt (#8) that’s a great point and it also feeds into Bill’s point about the Clippers.

The Clippers *spent* money, but only after Brand and Maggette had signed offersheets with other teams as RFA’s. Brand signed with the Heat and Maggette with the Jazz…Sterling found those deals palpable, and signed those guys by matching those offers (so as Bill pointed out, Sterling was viewed as cheap, so teams went after his guys. When he matched those offers, that view of him changed some, but the players that had those offers matched may not have liked that). And look what happened in the end: both Brand and Maggette left in their UFA year to sign with other teams…coincidence? Maybe, but don’t think that showing a half commitment by letting other teams establish the value for your player doesn’t impact player/team relations.

I think the Lakers need to attack a contract offer for Bynum in a range that is fair. 12-14 mil per may seem a little steep, but it may take that to get it done (especially with Bogut’s extension setting the market). They don’t have to do this now, but ultimately, they need to let him and his agent know that they value him and set the market for him themselves in their own negotiations.

Also, great post Bill Bridges.

Comment by Darius — July 15, 2008 @ 12:22 pm

Rob Pelinka is Kobe’s agent. hmmmm….good sign?

Comment by wondahbap — July 15, 2008 @ 12:23 pm

Here is text of a radio interview Dunleavy held after David Falk and Elton Brand interviews lambasting the Clippers. I heard the interview and came away feeling the Clippers did about everything they could do, under the circumstances. The circumstances being…
1) The Clippers do have a rep around the league, even if they have been trying to modify it for the last few years.
2) Elton Brand probably did prefer to play closer to home.
3) David Falk really does dislike the Clippers and his ego just could not abide with the Dunleavy talking directly to his client; even if his client initiated the conversation.

Comment by Craig W. — July 15, 2008 @ 1:25 pm

Sorry - here is the link.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=9437

Comment by Craig W. — July 15, 2008 @ 1:25 pm

I have one question Kurt, What Lakers are going to do in 09-10 season when Bryant will get as much as 24 mill and Gasol 16 and with Bynums big contract, are they still going to sign Odom or we can expect a big trade in that season?

Comment by Mani — July 15, 2008 @ 1:31 pm

17. Good question. I don’t know that we can answer that question right now, we need to see how the Bynum/Gasol/Odom unit performs together. We need to see if Mitch can shed any of the more challenging long-term deals the Lakers have to save cap space. If this team does win a title, how much more of a financial hit is Buss willing to take?

There are a lot of questions still to be answered.

Comment by Kurt — July 15, 2008 @ 2:02 pm

#17 & #18:

This has been mentioned in another thread, but it is a possibility that Kobe takes less money after opting out. It may not save against the cap, but it would save against the Luxury Tax. Kobe could easily opt out after next season or the season after that (he has ETO’s after both seasons) and then re-sign for a max(ish) deal but still leave some money on the table. Duncan does this and look how well it’s worked for the Spurs. In those seasons, Kobe will be set to earn 24+ mil. Am I out of my mind to think he would sign back on for 19-20 mil? At the end of next season he’ll be, what, 31 years old? Couldn’t he sign a 5 yr. 100mil extension? It’s not like he’d be doing the team *that* big a favor, but that 4 mil per year could really mean 8 mil in salary + taxes for Dr. Buss.

Comment by Darius — July 15, 2008 @ 3:03 pm

Sorry for the double-post, but right after that I went to Ball Don’t Lie and found this in their 10-man rotation:

http://ballerblogger.com/2008/07/14/the-tim-duncan-rule/

Basically, this says Kobe needs to opt-out and take less if he’s serious about his commitment to winning a title in LA. Pretty good read and the comments are good as well.

Comment by Darius — July 15, 2008 @ 3:10 pm

Craig,

When the time comes for us to sign Farmar, doesn’t Fisher’s contract expire at the same time (thus, we can effectively replacing Fisher’s contract with Farmar’s)?

Comment by aB — July 15, 2008 @ 3:32 pm

Thats a gud Article Darius, hope so kobe opt out after this season.

Comment by Mani — July 15, 2008 @ 3:33 pm

here u can look at lakers contract for up coming seasons
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=9168

Comment by Mani — July 15, 2008 @ 3:35 pm

For those who haven’t read the Charley Rosen article on Artest:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/8333122/Artest-to-Lakers?-Crazy-enough-to-work

Comment by Sal — July 15, 2008 @ 4:24 pm

I’m definitely in the camp that favors matching for Ronny. I honestly don’t see much risk involved for the future. Ronny is tradeable.

To me, it’s about keeping as many players from last year as possible for strategic reasons I outline below (taken from previous writeup). This, in my opinion makes it difficult for the Lakers to know what to do.

Through trading last year, the Lakers have, in effect, made decisions for this year that relate strongly to the roles of Andrew and Trevor.

Here’s the dilemma. The Lakers came close to a championship with Lamar, Pau, Vladimir, Derek, and Kobe, but the salary based transitioning strategy dictates Pau, Andrew, Trevor, Derek, and Kobe by next year, with Jordan for Derek the year after.

Of course, all these things can change.

Do we go with “what brung us” (at least another year), do we transition slowly, or do we go for the future right away?

Last season, we went with the future AND with “what brung us” (and mortgaged our future with Pau in the process) and, by golly, BOTH seemed to work!

Houston, we’ve got a problem.

Whatever it was, we obviously want to bottle that chemistry from last year, age it, and meet/defeat the Leprechauns with our aged brew. That is not exactly what will happen. Considering our commitment to Andrew and hope for Trevor, our new brew for the coming season may be a little raw, but it will be strong and have plenty of hops.

Given all the contradictory elements leading to the Lakers 08-09, I think that the Lakers are likely to give us a mix of last year and the future.

It really all comes down to Andrew, doesn’t it?

If it were me, knowing nothing about Andrew’s health or readiness, I’d go slow. I’d go back to the start of last year. If we use that rule of thumb, we open with a version of “what brung us” and bring in Andrew with “The bench mob.”

My only change with the starting unit from last year would be to alternate Vladimir with Trevor from game to game. My “bench crew” would feature Andrew, Pau, Luke, Sasha, and Jordan–with Ronny (or Garby?) subbing in for Pau part way through.

If Andrew appeared comfortable as part of the bench crew, I’d consider starting him–switching Pau to forward and Lamar to the “bench crew.”

Given the complexities and uncertainties of bringing both Trevor and Andrew into the mix for 2008-2009, it would be best if the Lakers kept as many players as possible from the last few years together.

If the Lakers feel that they have to trade for “toughness,” we’re talking about a trade/signing before training camp or a last minute “add a vet” at the end of the season. Mid season trades are not a Laker hallmark

Comment by drrayeye — July 15, 2008 @ 4:25 pm

one stupid question, is there any chance that lakers are going to target L. James in 09-10 season

Comment by Mani — July 15, 2008 @ 4:43 pm

11. Talking to some Lakers front office staff the guy told me that Dr. Buss pocket is not that deep as it seems. Do I have to finish the post?

I don’t really care about poker theories. I care about basketball and money, and I am still regreting not letting Radmanovic walk without a penny after the snowboarding “afair”. Do you think you could trade Radmanovic to anyone for an expiring contract or a 2nd round pick? no. Not because he’s not good, but because of his contract.

Comment by Xavier — July 15, 2008 @ 4:48 pm

I remember Kobe’s exit interview pretty clearly and one thing that struck me was his, “I’m not the richest guy in this building” comment. Dude views Buss as having more money to spend then he has and I think that is an attitude he brings to the negotiations table. The key issue is can the Lakers convince Kobe that they will only be able to spend what is “necessary” if part of the equation they consider is that Kobe is necessary.

To be honest, I would be prefer to have LBJ on the team rather then Kobe. If that Brooklyn Nets weren’t so clearly his preferred team I might take my chances and angle the team for a run at him.

Comment by P. Ami — July 15, 2008 @ 5:06 pm

Darius,

Thanks for thay link. I’ve been saying this for the past week now, and it HAS to be an obvious fact to Kobe. His legacy is on the line, Championship or not. Dr. Buss put up, now the ball is in Kobe’s court.

Comment by wondahbap — July 15, 2008 @ 5:35 pm

The Lakers are making a ton of money,all they care about is making the team better. Letting Turiaf go won’t do that.

Comment by magiclover — July 15, 2008 @ 5:52 pm

drrayeye,
You make a good pitch. The problem is that by signing Ronny, the Lakers commit to that addition to the payroll for the duration of the contract - trades must bring equal value. Adding this to the question of “How deep are Dr Buss’s pockets?” and we can get to crunch time very quickly.

If we think Kobe will demand totally max money, then I say go for it now, as we probably won’t have much of a tomorrow unless Bynum is a superstar. If we think Kobe will work with the organization to remain in championship form for decent run, then we must start tinkering now. Waiting will shorten our future window.

Comment by Craig W. — July 15, 2008 @ 5:55 pm

26. Mani, no way the Lakers get or go after LBJ.

Comment by Kurt — July 15, 2008 @ 6:07 pm

Craig,

You need to remember that Golden State gave Ronny a frontloaded contract–which I think actually helps the Lakers. If the Lakers go to trade Ronny, his salary could be discounted, making him easier to trade each year–even next year.

I’m having so much trouble thinking clearly about this year, I’m not ready to speculate two years down the road.

Comment by drrayeye — July 15, 2008 @ 6:44 pm

Camby to the Clippers?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3491156

Regards

Comment by Pato — July 15, 2008 @ 6:47 pm

Kamen and Camby are both true centers. Can they get one to play an effective PF? At least they can both run and this should help the Clippers running game next year.

Comment by Craig W. — July 15, 2008 @ 7:01 pm

drrayeye,
I agree the front loaded nature of the contract should help, after next year - which would be a real b*** if they also sign Sasha. The problem is what we have all been talking about - Vlade, Walton, Turiaf, Sasha all have those in-between contracts that just kill all flexibility without adding a starter. Clubs that are going to compete over 5-10 years need fewer midlevel contracts and more cheap contracts - vets at the end of their career or youngsters coming up.

Comment by Craig W. — July 15, 2008 @ 7:04 pm

I’ve pretty much convinced myself that Turiaf is leaving. It’s tough for me to envision the Lakers taking all this time to just match the offer. I could understand if they are working on some sort of S&T (the way that Phoenix did with Joe Johnson) or if they were working on some separate deal to clear some salary in order to keep Ronnie, but since there’s absolutely no evidence to back that up, I leads me to believe that we’re going to let him walk.

And, on a separate note, I really agree with drrayeye in that it really is about Andrew and Trevor. As fans, we have a lot invested in these players and the FO has a lot as well (though at different levels). Ariza is young and athletic enough, has shown he’s smart, and seemingly has the potential to be our starter at SF within the next season or two. And Andrew is obviously a player that the FO thinks is the next great Laker Big Man. They held onto him when trading him could’ve meant getting some really quality and also *name* players. So the Lakers and their fans really think that Ariza and Bynum can be major parts of championship teams in the years to come. I mean, whenever we were having trouble in the playoffs, we all said it’d be nice to have Ariza/Bynum.

My point is that we’ll see how this upcoming season plays out and we’ll need to monitor several players (not just a certain lefty who will remain nameless). How these guys progress (or in Bynum’s case, recover) will give us a much better idea of what the team will look like for seasons to come. I happen to think that Bynum is going to recover fine and provide the same type of game he was playing when he got injured. As for Ariza, I’m still in a wait and see mode. He showed me a lot last season, but if we’re going to commit to him after next season (and ultimately, long term) I still want to see more. Unless he’s an improved shooter and ball handler, he’s a specialist. He’s a defender/slasher. I know we like him, but that’s what Reuben Patterson is. That’s what Desmond Mason is. That’s what Mo’ Evans is. Now, I like all those players, but those guys are role players (we’ve got a couple of those already at SF if you haven’t noticed). I want and hope Ariza is more than that, but he’s going to have to show me first. And if he doesn’t, him being here beyond next season is not something that is set in stone either. That might sound harsh, but based off the financials (and the performance of other players, of course) re-signing any of our players in their walk years in the next couple of years is going to be those types of decisions. Our core guys (especially true if Bynum gets a big extension) make too much money. Forget about Odom for a second….Kobe and Gasol make the maximum money available to them. In the ‘09-’10 season Kobe/Gasol are owed 39.48 mil. In ‘10-’11 they’re owed 42.62 mil. That’s a lot of money for 2 guys. This is just all stuff to consider when talking about Kobe, salary, payroll flexibility, Dr. Buss’ wallet, and the future make-up of the team.

Comment by Darius — July 15, 2008 @ 7:13 pm

34. Camby may not be at a position they need, but to get him for a second round pick is a steal. That gives the Clips a potential trading chit that other teams will want. Need or not you really have to make that deal.

Comment by Kurt — July 15, 2008 @ 7:25 pm

That really makes sense for the Clips. Not only for the reason Kurt just stated, but his game really does compliment Kaman’s. Camby is great at the high-post and on the extended baseline, making it so that Kaman can still operate down in the post. Plus, Kaman can guard primary post scorers with his size and Camby can roam on the weakside and block shots like he’d prefer.

Comment by Darius — July 15, 2008 @ 7:31 pm

Good move by the Clips. Still don’t know if they are a playoff team, but it makes them formidable, Camby will work the high on the high-low with Kaman, but I think he will have a tough time sticking with PF’s on defense, and it will take him away from the hoop.

Comment by kwame a. — July 15, 2008 @ 7:34 pm

One thing this does for the Clips (assuming he isn’t a trade chip) is allow Kaman to stay nearer the basket on both offense and defense. That means he doesn’t use as much energy and can play more minutes at peak efficiency. It means he can run half speed down the court and be the 5th man down the lane, because Camby can run out for dunks.

Comment by Craig W. — July 15, 2008 @ 7:46 pm

by the way, camby makes the same amount of money as kenny thomas.

did the clippers get a salary exemption when brand walked? how is trading a second round pick worth marcus camby?

Comment by busterjonez — July 15, 2008 @ 7:50 pm

42. Because the Clippers are under the salary cap they do not have to match salaries. That is only for teams over the cap, such as the Lakers.

Comment by Kurt — July 15, 2008 @ 7:54 pm

Does anyone know what Elgin Baylor does for the Clips?I mean, Dunleavy was the guy out in front on this whole Brand thing, just seemed kinda weird, he even said “I” offered Elton everything he wanteed. Also, I saw he was the one eating with prospective free agents, isn’t this all stuff Elgin is supposed to do?

Comment by kwame a. — July 15, 2008 @ 8:00 pm

Interesting post Bill, I just don’t think the logic flies. If other teams see us overpaying for bad players without hesitation they can happily burn our cap into the ground by bidding on our players and not having to worry they may get stuck with them if they overpay.

Kurt, you said something along the same lines as Bill, mentioning that if the other teams think we will match they will put in low offers. That logic doesn’t work at all, if anything they will put in high offers to either sign the player, or make us overpay. Any weakening of our team by overpaying is a gain for them.

Comment by JR — July 15, 2008 @ 8:46 pm

If you participated in an informal auction with your friends, you know that there’s always one or two guys out there who jack up the price knowing you will match, forcing you to spend more than you absolutely need.

It’s not necessarily a good startegy in the NBA where such a move will effect the overall salary level, but if you are sure that the other team will match it and thus be bound financially, it may be worth a week. Of course you’re doing the other 28 teams a favor just to screw over one team, however.

But yeah, such signalling could indeed be effective if 1) you also have the reputation to overspend and be able to afford it 2) you actually want the other team to think that you’ll match, when in actuality you wish them to take the guy off your hands.

Honestly, i think all of the GMs and owners are ‘friends’ above all the hostility they ‘pretend’ to have, and they’re more likely to collaborate against players than they are to conspire against each other.

Comment by harold — July 15, 2008 @ 9:05 pm

To not match Ronny @ $4mm will make paying Walton $5.5mm all the more painful.

Practice up Luke. I’m gonna be sittin’ low and lettin’ ya know.

Comment by sharky — July 15, 2008 @ 10:06 pm

I totally disagree with the assessment of the Clippers being better. That team looks really unbalanced and lacks style chemistry.

Baron, Thornton and Gordon like to run. Camby runs occasionally (but it’s getting harder with all that ganja in his lungs) and Kaman is stiff as a board. Something has to give. I don’t see either Camby or Kaman comfortable as a power forward, even if Camby likes to play the high post. I think the worry there is him thinking he’s Reggie Miller and jacking up too many 3’s.

I think Kaman goes while his stock is up.

And like I said before let Ronny walk - you can get any number of guys to do what he does for cheaper, though I like him a ton. Just too many so-so mid-level deals with the likes of Luke, Vlad and probably Sahsa. I have seen some decent looking bench bigs in the Summer League, even if Toronto hasn’t given Rod Benson any run.

Comment by Bingo T. Klown — July 15, 2008 @ 10:31 pm

(37) Darius,

Great post! I agree with your analysis about the future and especially Trevor at the 3. Anything is possible.

Just one detail. We’ll have to wait at least a bit longer to find out about Ronny. If the Lakers decide to match, they will still wait to the end to punish the Warriors for making the offer. It ties up their money.

If they’re not going to match, they want to try to at least sign Sasha first, so they don’t lose him. So the delay doesn’t tell us anything yet.

Comment by drrayeye — July 15, 2008 @ 10:38 pm

#45. I don’t espouse consistantly over paying. And also, in this post I’m exclusively talking about keeping current players not signng other team’s free agents.

The concept discussed is signalling and game theory. In context, a GM that consistently overpaid would be a poor player.

A poker player who goes all in every hand would be a loser! I am talking about adopting strategies to win.

In Game Theory, a player’s actions form an information set. This information set influences the behaviour of other players.

Kupchak (whether he knows it or not) is playing a sophisticated game involving expensive assets, small community of rivals, intense media scrutiny, huge financial stakes, and rigid rules. My point is that skillful players can play this game to reduce competition and cost of resources.

And drrayeye is absolutely right, the right play if challenged is to wait until the 11th hour to match even if this is the intent all along.

Comment by Bill Bridges — July 16, 2008 @ 1:42 am

Another very interesting post, Bill Bridges, I remember your post about the Boston defense, from the finals when Kurt was off for a week, and your comment using economic ecology methology (say that 3 times fast). Where do you come up with these ideas. They are ingenious indeed, I would have to say. I have to agree with JR (#45) opinion though, on this one.

Yea, Camby to the Clip’s for basically nothing, not bad for them. Well I am, one third of the way through my book, Basketball On Paper and I will never watch a game the same way again (thats a good thing).

Comment by sT — July 16, 2008 @ 2:23 am

45) “think we will match they will put in low offers. That logic doesn’t work at all, if anything they will put in high offers to either sign the player, or make us overpay.”

JR, the implication in Kurt’s logic is that the other teams don’t want to overpay, but also don’t want the Lakers to underpay. If they put in a high offer, they will get stuck with a contract for more than the player is worth.

Comment by exhelodrvr — July 16, 2008 @ 5:42 am

the Clippers should have about 53 million on the payroll for this year with Baron and Marcus, with plenty of space to add on some free agents. Sterling surprised us when he loosed his pockets a little to sign Elton and Corey. he could very reasonably continue to construct a powerful team and still leave flexibility for the summer of Lebron.

but is it really overpaying? does ronny turiaf have innate characteristics and a distinct relationship with the team in addition to his bare skill set and potential that may help us win a championship? basically, will Buss be paying for the intangibles? cause if there is a valuation for such a thing, you can hardly call it overpaying. ordinarily, we could call it imperfect information and a set of preferences resulting in loss. but is there really a supply of players who can replace ronny? if you can say that the unique qualities that our ronny brings don’t necessarily translate to a championship, then sure. that’s the bare question. but until then, there is a scare supply of ronny-like players, and no–it is not overpaying.

also, while imperfect information permeates every level of decision-making, it is significantly reduced by the infinite and sequential nature of the game, meaning we see what players do and gain a reasonably good picture of what they still can do at every point. ronny has been on the big stage for several years now. there is probably little that the coaching staff, management, and even fans don’t know about him. scouts, too, limit what teams don’t know about other teams’ players, and incoming rookie players. so really, it comes down to not what we know about players’ skill-sets, but rather decision-makers’ preference for certain traits, that they in their wisdom know will contribute to profit, whether through winning or just basic marketability.

darius is right too. it depends won whether the rest of the league is largely composed of hawks or doves, wussy misers or generous spenders.

Comment by the other Stephen — July 16, 2008 @ 6:07 am

i am interested in who you think could possibly immediately replace Ronny?

i also wanted to add that just as in poker and the stock market, really any other market, instances in which you significantly outperform the rest of the market are both rare and short-lived. when you play the stock market, poker, or any other game involving gambling, it’s a general rule that you will only break-even in the long run. the few who make a killing will likely lose it if they don’t cease to be greedy or reckless, and either become more conservative or pull out altogether (think game shows). lightning rarely comes around twice. even in the NBA, dynasties are relatively uncommon.

but because the game is sequential, and information is neither completely perfect nor imperfect, there will still always be implausible equilibria, or in other words, no optimal strategy for a player to consistently pursue. if you really wanted to come out ahead of the pack, you would not play optimally. you would have to recognize how and when other players are not playing optimally (if they are bluffing more than normal, you start calling more than normal), and capitalize upon that knowledge. you might even have to become vulnerable to induce them to not play optimally.

the game is inextricably complex. when does a franchise truly win? after all, winning the championship is correlated with profits, but only to a certain extent. what it comes down to is that franchises are just rational actors, firms who are trying to turn a profit in the long run by making good business decisions. they will more likely than not act out of normal. but to give humans credit, they will shake it up once in a while, changing their beliefs or strategies, perhaps in the form of mortgaging away salary flexibility or overpaying, when they feel that it’s time to win it all to continue to make a profit.

i don’t know. tell me what you think, cause i’m tired of typing.

Comment by the other Stephen — July 16, 2008 @ 6:55 am

I agree with Kurt that from a strategic point of view, we should match Ronnie’s salary. However, I question whether we need to do that at all at this point since Sasha doesn’t seem to be getting many takers at his requested price. Seems to me that Shasha will get the best deal from the Lakers anyway. I guess the question to me is whether we can sign a free agent at this point that will provide similar numbers as Ronnie.

Comment by MannyP — July 16, 2008 @ 7:46 am

MANNYp,
“that will provide similar numbers as Ronnie”

If the Lakers have reasonable health this season, Turiaf would get minimal time. That is the biggest issue with re-signing him. Do they want to gamble on Bynum, Gasol, Odom, and Mihm staying healthy?

Comment by exhelodrvr — July 16, 2008 @ 8:04 am

48 - I don’t know if you watch Clippers games, but from what I’ve seen, Kaman can run the floor, and he can play as a PF. He just doesn’t look pretty while doing it.

Comment by robz — July 16, 2008 @ 8:11 am

56. yeah, he can run the floor..faster than brad miller..

(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuzAbnr_4bY)

hahaha i like to think that Kaman is better at the 4 as well. he has a nice jumper. but i think Camby is lankier and more mobile? i’m not really sure.

Comment by the other Stephen — July 16, 2008 @ 8:41 am

Slight off-topic Kurt to lay my premise…

You guys should all start playing in SIM leagues. While its usually a trade frenzy there, you also get to learn the mechanics of keeping a team in contention while staying under the “hard cap” or the lux tax as we call it.

I for one built a team of Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Shawn Marion, Tyrus Thomas and Al Jefferson with how ironic, the CLippers. My starters earn approx 57m with our cap set at 58.7m. Tyrus is on the final year of his rookie scale salary, Arenas is on the final year of the contract he signed years ago. Monta signed with me for the MAX and Al Jefferson is riding his extension already.

I conveniently have a bench of: Josh Childress, Brook Lopez, Luke Ridnour, Sean Williams and Stephen Curry.

Brook was taken as the 12th pick last season, Stephen Curry as 10th this year. Ridnour is earning the minimum, Chill signed for a single year MLE and Sean Will chose to resign for 3m per year for 3 yrs after I acquired him last season.

http://bdsl-retro.com/rosters/roster24.htm

The POINT I am trying to raise is that a team cannot continue to operate filled with 4 stars and 8 more rotation players. At some point, we have to concede some talent - and some salaries. Unless Lamar Odom decides to take a pay cut - happens in sim leagues only not in real life - there is no way we can keep him - as presently constructed.

Kurt, I hope you let this through. It will be a nice illustration of how things work in real life - though its just in SIM. Again, all that crap of nonsense just to prove a point.

Comment by Warren Addendum — July 16, 2008 @ 8:42 am

I hope nobody takes this the wrong way but I am a little sick & tired of all the speculation talk. I read this blog mainly to find out how the Lakers are doing and during the offseason to see if they make any moves. I guess since Mitch is taking his time about any signings my frustration level is out of control. I love all the great posters here I just wish we could get some news.

Comment by azzemoto — July 16, 2008 @ 8:52 am

azzemoto, other laker sites usually give out the rumor/news, we discuss/diss it here.

Comment by Warren Addendum — July 16, 2008 @ 8:57 am

Haven’t seen this mentioned here, but Walton is having surgery to remove bone spurs from his ankle:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3488627

Comment by 33 — July 16, 2008 @ 8:59 am

busterjonez,

the nuggets will be saving around $40 million over 2 years ( i think) including luxury tax by moving camby. the clippers are under the cap, so that’s why.

Comment by wondahbap — July 16, 2008 @ 9:35 am

azzemoto, we all wish there was some news. I watched the All Star game last night, which lasted so long I never got around to the tivo’d Summer League game from the Lakers. I guess I’ll try to get to that tonight.

Comment by Kurt — July 16, 2008 @ 9:37 am

Also, I hope that Kobe is paying attention to this Brett Favre saga. If Favre can have Packers fans tired of his act, or the FO, and be willing to have him leave, then the same thing could happen here. This isn’t bashing Kobe, because I’m a huge Kobe supporter, but my point is after last summer, if he isn’t willing to concede something, then the same thing could happen,

Comment by wondahbap — July 16, 2008 @ 9:43 am

I know this has been mentioned before, but certain circumtances mellow the effect of the power play in signing Ronnie. Jerry Buss has never made an indication that he will go Cuban or Dolan in trying to win a championship. The man tries to play it as efficently as he can (see: pass on signing Shaq to a long term deal) Thus, if a team wants to give Sasha an offer sheet, they will, and may front load the contract as well since they would still percieve that we do not want to go too much over the luxury tax.

I believe your post would work if the team was like the Clippers, that is, they had a history of being cheapskates. Then, if they repetedly matched offers when they say they would, the perception may start to change, as their policies would need to be radicaly changed. But for the Lakers the perception is already there, and I doubt this would do anything to change it.

As for Bynum, as others have noted, we would prefer to sign him before to keep him happy. (Also, I hate to damper on the joy, but I’d like to note that we are all assuming that ‘Drew will be back to his All Starish form)

Comment by TCO — July 16, 2008 @ 9:43 am

#54. Yet the Celtics have 17 championships and the Lakers, 15. A total of 32 championships in 62 years. This indicates that the NBA is not efficient nor governed by chance (and I don’t mean game fixing by the league!)

Warren Buffet and in his day, George Soros, out performed the market for decades.

The fact is that the godfather of efficient market theory, Eugene Fama, recanted. Admitting that the markets are NOT efficient and that outsized gains are possible.

In game theory, the Nash equilibrium may not result in strategies with the greatest aggregate payoff for the players. (In fact, collusion may produce the greatest payoff) This discrepency can increase as the number of actors decrease in a closed system (like the NBA).

Anyway by the end of play Thursday, we will all know the answer. My point is that to “play GM” is not just being facile with the ESPN trade machine but a sophisticated game trying to maximize the payoff with multiple, uncertain variables. The Lakers have proven over time that they can play this game well. Let’s hope this continues.

Comment by Bill Bridges — July 16, 2008 @ 9:46 am

Post #1 hits the spot. Bill Bridges, your Game Theory is too general for specific teams and players. If we match Warriors’ offer to Turiaf, teams will more likely go after Sasha due to our increased salary, not less likely.

Comment by lol — July 16, 2008 @ 10:42 am

When thinking about Ronny a little history is in order…

First: Ronny has attributes that draw fans to him, thus his skills are not as important as other Laker players.

Second: The Lakers recently signed a player the team considered valuable, because of his ability to fit in. Now the fans are all over the FO to trade him, but complain because his contract is too high (Luke Walton).

Third: One of the main reasons Luke’s playing time decreased is because of the development of other players.

When evaluating Ronny we have to remember these 3 things. Our players are young enough to have a good deal of development left in them and this makes acquiring more veteran and expensive talent less necessary. We don’t always see these developments because we are blinded by 1) the now and 2) Ronny’s energy and likability.

Next year Lamar’s salary goes off the books and Bynum and Ariza increase. We still may be able to sign a PF to play backup at that time. Meanwhile, we surely have Lamar - who may vacillate between the 3 & 4.

Comment by Craig W. — July 16, 2008 @ 11:26 am

P.S. Next year’s free agents are a fairly good crop…leading to extra money being siphoned out of the system pretty quickly. This means there will be some fairly good buys later next summer.

Comment by Craig W. — July 16, 2008 @ 11:30 am

I hope we don’t overspend for Ronny OR Turiaf. Neither of those guys is worth what they’ll be asking for. I’d much rather have a better rebounder at PF and a better defender at SG. Thinking about Ray Ray walking right past Sasha for the game winning bucket makes me sick.

Comment by kneejerkNBA — July 16, 2008 @ 11:40 am

Kneejerk,

Yes, Ray Allen walked by him, and that was inexcusable, but I think you’re being over-reactive. While I don’t want to see them over spend for Ronny, due to their current sitation. It would not be over spending for Sasha. His role is and will be bigger than Ronny’s could be. He is tall, active, a decent defender, good ball handler, a great shooter (he needs to work on finishing), and young. You cannot find that in FA cheap.

Comment by wondahbap — July 16, 2008 @ 12:17 pm

Shedding Walton and Radmanovich’s contract would be key. But are there any saps, er i mean takers??

Comment by darin — July 16, 2008 @ 12:37 pm

Walton’s contract has 5 yrs to run and essentially we are stuck with it for 3-4 yrs. Vlade’s contract has 3 yrs to run and we might have a shot at trading him at the end of next year, but probably two years down the road.

Remember these when talking about signing Ronny.

Comment by Craig W. — July 16, 2008 @ 12:42 pm

is tomorrow the Lakers’ deadline to match Turiaf’s offer sheet from GSW?

Comment by Paydawg — July 16, 2008 @ 12:48 pm

Charley Rosen’s Artest article made me think about a couple of things.

He assumes Artest will behave because Rodman behaved with the Bulls. But Rodman had established, during his time with the Pistons (and before any influence from Phil), that he was capable of sacrificing for the good of a team. There is nothing in Artest’s past that indicates he can do the same.

It can be argued that the presence of strong authority figures (Isiah and Chuck Daly in Detroit, MJ and Phil in Chicago) kept Rodman in line. But regardless of the reasons, Rodman maintained his composure when he had a legitimate chance to win a championship. Artest has not done that either.

Also, it’s ironic that many people in favor of trading Odom for Artest reason that Odom is incapable of changing to a more physical and aggressive mentality. Yet those same people think it’s a given that Artest can change his mentality to be less crazy (for lack of a better term). That’s irrational.

Also, this is the first offseason in a couple of years that Odom hasn’t been injured, so he has a better opportunity to work on his game than he’s had in the past. He may not be able to improve, but it’s something to consider.

Lastly, has anyone ever worn a Sasha jersey to a game? I did a couple of times and it seemed like the only other guy wearing one was Sasha himself. For the sake of my jersey’s relevance, I hope they’re able to resign him (but for a reasonable amount).

Comment by Lane — July 16, 2008 @ 12:53 pm

Posey to the Hornets, 4 yr 25Million. Great pick up: championship experience, versatile defender and most importantly (playing with CP3) he can hit the open 3.

Comment by Matt M. — July 16, 2008 @ 1:05 pm

That’s a great get for the Hornets. Bad for us, they just got better.

Comment by Kurt — July 16, 2008 @ 1:18 pm

Bill Bridges Bayesian approach to thinking about decision making is not only reasonable, but it helps us in these situations. We have a priori thinking (our evaluation of Ronny and Sasha) and a posteriori thinking (what the market says). They may not agree. The one thing that is critical in these situations from a decision maker’s perspective is flexible thinking.

A good decision maker should always beat chance. The Lakers clearly have. In game theory, people seldom perform as well as the model because they get stuck in their assumptions. Business decision experts sometimes call this “anchoring.”

Before free agent time, the Laker fans and front office attributed much more value to Sasha than Ronny, only to find Ronny return with a written offer in the range we might have expected from Sasha–and Sasha having no offer and changing agents.

An “anchorer” would say that the Warriors presented a high offer. A Bayesian would say that we now have objective information about Ronny that contradicts our a priori attributions. Even though Sasha might still get the offer we expected to see, we know that a number of teams have made offers that now exclude them from the Sasha sweepstakes. His prospects have clearly declined since the start of free agency. His a posteriori status clearly hasn’t matched our a priori thinking.

We need to be flexible enough thinkers to intuitively take these factors into account and adjust our expectations. Anchorers tend to go down with the ship.

Comment by drrayeye — July 16, 2008 @ 1:23 pm

Kurt,

Do you think the Hornets are good enough defensively, overall, to use Posey correctly? He’s a defender who works best, when he has good help defense behind him, because he can focus on closing out and preventing jumpers. I think it’l help them, but not enoigh for them to overcome their problems against the Lakers. they still have no one to check our bigs. Not Lamar, not Drew, nor Pau, and NOH team D isn;t good enough to allow Posey to limit Kobe. Just glad Boston lost him.

Comment by wondahbap — July 16, 2008 @ 1:29 pm

drrayeye,

re:”Before free agent time, the Laker fans and front office attributed much more value to Sasha than Ronny, only to find Ronny return with a written offer in the range we might have expected from Sasha–and Sasha having no offer and changing agents.”

I think Sasha not seeming to garner interest is due to the fact that teams are sure the the Lakers WILL match, and would’ve chosen Sasha over Ronny if they had to choose. Taking Ronny away was realistic, and I don’t think stealing Sasha is. Nothing to do with Ronny’s value. No one else offered him a contract nor all of these game theory, business models or whatever.

Comment by wondahbap — July 16, 2008 @ 1:37 pm

****No one else offered him a contract besides GS. Nothing to do with all of these game theory, business models or whatever.

Comment by wondahbap — July 16, 2008 @ 1:38 pm

This may be of interest to those who are concerned about cap limits. Before the Hornets signed Posey, they were at $74,789,590 according to ESPN trade machine. With Posey, they are very close to $81 million–and pretty well locked in. When they have signed all their players, they may be at about $85 million.

I do not think that the Hornets can be accused of being over conservative.

Comment by drrayeye — July 16, 2008 @ 1:43 pm

I can’t say I’d hate life if the Hornets win a championship. I love CP3 and of course Byron Scott.

Go Lakers though.

Comment by Paydawg — July 16, 2008 @ 1:46 pm

(80) (81) wondahbap,

I can see that you are clearly not a Bayesian thinker and have internally established your own intuitive subjective expected utility values for Sasha and Ronny.

Comment by drrayeye — July 16, 2008 @ 1:50 pm

54. thanks for the response, bill! i was wondering if you have a website?

Comment by the other Stephen — July 16, 2008 @ 2:05 pm

80. Posey would have Tyson Chandler behind him, which is some pretty good help defense.

I think it is too early to predict next year’s playoffs. I would say I expected a healthy Hornets team to be a top-four seed, and this kind of depth and veteran leadership makes that more likely. They are well positioned and should mature from last season. I don’t think, if everyone is healthy on both sides, they can beat the Lakers in a best of seven, at least on paper. But we are 10 months from the second round of the playoffs next year, so any predictions are not worth much.

Comment by Kurt — July 16, 2008 @ 2:13 pm

81) wondahbap,
The other issue is that value is relative. With the roster as it is currently, Turiaf is expendable (assuming reasonable health) and does not need to be replaced if he leaves. The same is not true of Sasha.

Comment by exhelodrvr — July 16, 2008 @ 2:16 pm

I’m sorry to say this, but the Hornets are stacked. They have scorers at almost every position, they have interior and perimeter defenders, they have post offense, and they have Chris Paul and that deadly high P&R. Can you imagine a crunch time line up of Paul, Posey, Peja, West, and Chandler? Who do you leave to stop penetration? I understand that Peja and Paul aren’t the best defenders (understatement, I know) but West is decent and Posey/Chandler are pretty strong for their positions. I’m not shaking in my boots or anything, but those guys are (mostly) young, hungry players that just got a ton of experience in a brutal conference and have a lot of confidence based off of last season.

Comment by Darius — July 16, 2008 @ 2:29 pm

82- We don’t know that GS was the only team interested in Turiaf, just that that was the best offer out there. (”Best” might be relative, if Ronny wanted to stay on the west coast or something, but it seems pretty likely that he had other options to choose from.) There may have been other offers forthcoming that were dropped once the Warriors offer was known.

I suspect there may be teams interested in Sasha, but they’re probably sitting on their offers at the moment to see if the Lakers are going to commit to Turiaf. (This is another reason that I think committing to Turiaf somewhat increases the chance that the Lakers lose Vujacic; it seems unlikely they can keep both at $4MM per.)

The apparent improvement of Coby Karl might also lessen Sasha’s value to the Lakers, though of course it’s only summer league.

I’m wonder whether Vujacic switching to Kobe’s agent is a “keep Sasha = keep Kobe happy” message or whether it’s just a random move. (Seems like Kobe and Sasha are competing for the same money in some sense, but you never know what goes on behind the scenes.)

Comment by alex v. — July 16, 2008 @ 2:51 pm

Drrayeye,
No, I have estimated the Lakers expected value of Ronny.

Exhelodrvr,
I agree. That was my point.

Darius,
Yes, they will be very good. again.

Kurt,
I think Chandler is a good help defender, but I just think overall, Boston’s D helped Posey be that much better. that being said, that’s not knocking Posey or the Hornets in anyway. It’smore of compliment to Boston’s great overall D.

Alex V,
Good point.

Of course, I don’t feel the Lakers should re-sgin Ronny IF they are intent on staying at the current salary level. Like Kurt said in a post before, it’s not our money being spent, but if they don’t mind paying the money, then I’m all for it. $4 million for Ronny seems very fair. But due to the current situation, ssming like it’s one or the other, then I would have to pick Sasha……

Comment by wondahbap — July 16, 2008 @ 3:36 pm

The Lakers may be first thinking this through, then talking to Sasha.

The first point: The Lakers are at 75,847,313

They choose to be no more than $82, 000,000 after signing the two free agents.

Perhaps they can sign Ronny and Mo Evans for $6,000,000

How much more would they pay extra over $82,000,000 for Sasha?

If Sasha accepts the qualifying offer to become a free agent the next year, both Ronny and Sasha together would cost $7,000,000. That’s still in range. A multiyear offer of $3,200,000 in the range of Trevor Ariza’s $3,100,000 would be about $7,500,000. Is Sasha worth the extra $1,500,000? Maybe.

Let’s suppose the Lakers sign Garbo(?) instead? Would the Lakers lose anything with Garbo at $3,000,000 compared to Ronny? Even if they lost something, would it be better with Garbo at only $2,000,000. That would leave up to $5,000,000 to sign Sasha.

What if they could get Garbo at $2,000,000 and Evans at $2,000,000 for a total of $4,000,000–or even both for about $3,000,000. That would beat their possible cap goal of $5,000,000 for two free agents. It would be in range of the qualifying offers total to Sasha and Ronny.

Once the Lakers decide, they might come to Sasha with a multiyear offer starting at as much as $3,500,000. If he takes it, they might then not match Ronny. If he takes a one year qualifying offer, they might sign Ronny.

If Sasha asks for more time, the Lakers may take Ronny and sign Mo Evans.

I’m just speculating, but this is my outsider “flexible” read of current negotiations that may be underway.

Best,

Ray

Comment by drrayeye — July 16, 2008 @ 4:17 pm

Wait wait wait, Garbajosa duplicates Radmanovic with little more help defense. Nice buddy, hard worker, good player, but not what Lakers need.

Comment by Xavier — July 16, 2008 @ 4:58 pm

Kurt-have you caught Bobby Brown in the summer league yet, according to truehoop he has been doin well. You always liked that guy.

Comment by kwame a. — July 16, 2008 @ 5:10 pm

Posey seems to make the Hornets much better in the short term - they now have a guy to match up with the swingmen in the West. The Hornets were a top contender this year, and he adds a lot of depth.

However, it seems to be a lot of money long term for a 31 year old. Especially one who is not a full-time 2 in the league, and definitely won’t start over Peja.

Hollinger said it best:

“And, as I mentioned, he’s a 31-year-old who will be handsomely paid ’til age 35. Nobody wanted to pay him this kind of dough when he was 30, and his production wasn’t any different last year — just the result in June.”

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Posey_Hornets-080716

Comment by beyondblue — July 16, 2008 @ 5:25 pm

RE: Posey

Explain how he fills a need exactly? They have guys at the three for offensive and defensive purposes (Peja and Wright) and need more depth at the 4 and 5, but they decide to sign another 3? Julian Wright sees his playing time go down most likely, unless Posey can play the 2, and they still need more bigs. I just don’t know. I like Posey but I’d have thought maybe something like Kurt Thomas, Craig Smith, or someone would have been better. And they gave him 25 over 4 years…

As for the Lakers, I’d rather have Sasha than Ronny. They need someone who can back up Kobe and also play the 2 when we go small with Kobe at the 3. Plus, with Bynum, Mihm, Odom, and Pau, assuming reasonably health, how many minutes does Ronny see? And Vlade/Luke can both play the 4 at times, so I don’t really see the need with Drew coming back. Would I like the have him? Sure, but I’d make sure to lock Sasha up first.

Comment by Chise — July 16, 2008 @ 5:45 pm

(93) Xavier,

I really don’t know anything about Garbojosa and if he fits in.

I’m just trying to illustrate how the decision/negotiation process might work from a business point of view–considering every alternative, weighing cost/benefits, being flexible, always having a plan B. I’m looking at the salary cap and supposing they have some money over the qualifying offer to negotiate–but not much. Just for illustration purposes, I chose the mid-level exception range. Mitch goes to the team for guidance, but ultimately he’s on his own.

Remember the stated goal from the team side is to sign both Ronny and Sasha. I’m supposing that from the head office, the goal is to spend below a certain amount. Mitch then does the best he can.

We’ll never know what really happened in every detail-but it’s probably happening now.

Comment by drrayeye — July 16, 2008 @ 6:05 pm

No matter how you slice it, LA-Portland-NO have the best young talent in the league and will be fighting hard for WCF honors for several of the next years to come. Jersey has done some nice things, Cleveland and Wash and O-Town can have a laugh, Boston is now old and they have their rings coming to them, but nothing spectacular elsewhere. Spurs are done. Don’t talk to me about Rose in Chicago or Beast in MIA until they play a few…

I only hope the East doesn’t (1) get younger and better quickly; (2) these guys don’t beat each other up too much in the West to matter in the end; and (3) Jordan-Pippen-Rodman don’t come out of retirement to play with Del Negro. Otherwise it’s a 3-4 horse race with at least 3 of those teams in the big W. Hey, at least we’re relevant. This talk about the Spurs, Suns, Rockets, Jazz, etc…they’re regular season fodder when the big games come on. Denver just put a shotgun in their mouths and pulled the trigger for the Clips. Worst D in the tourney just got worse. Fun. And funny.

The contract talk is compelling, but the pros will work it out and leave us to pick up the comments from their trail of pieces. Maybe we hate the moves, hopefully we love it, but not all of us will be cool with anything that happens in the long run. Part of being a fan. Good core, good extended family, good progress. The faces will change, the design of the rings will change, but the team trophy is the same. Let’s put another banner up in Staples next year and a few more before we again learn to expect it.

Oh yeah, and I’ve been shooting with LO every day as I put a broom in his face…he’s nailing the jumpers and 3’s. Go Lakers!

Comment by The Fanalyst — July 16, 2008 @ 7:04 pm

you know it;s not the first time Mo Evans name has been brought up. Is there any information to suggest that the Lakers are interested in bringing him back?

Not a big fan, since he seemed to get shot happy without the desired results. Not sure why we why should want him and why he would take a contract for less than Sasha.

Comment by Bingo T. Klown — July 16, 2008 @ 7:26 pm

Fanalyst-make sure you make him finish 50-100 right-hand lay-ups too.

Comment by kwame a. — July 16, 2008 @ 7:43 pm

Artest/Gasol/Bynum/Kobe another eight if healthy equals championship. Artest bashers beware he is about as talented a small forward as there is on both ends. We have seen the absolute best Lamar is capable it was the first half of game four of the finals, that was the absolute best he has played in his entire career and he no showed in the second half, even worse he helped give away that game. I think it would be a championship caliber team as it is now, but people that hate on Artest forget how great he was when he was last surrounded by talent. If Artest is facing the defense that Vladmir, or Lamar faces he will shoot over fifty percent from the field and give you great defense and hustle. Laker fans you really want this guy, even though I dont think we will get him, he is the perfect addition to any team that wants to contend.

Comment by Greg — July 16, 2008 @ 7:52 pm

I’m very concerned about the Hornets. Given LO and Gasol’s struggles against Perkins and KG — and the fact that New Orleans had Chandler and West — I don’t know if we would have beaten the Hornets. Not to mention the struggles we had keeping Rondo out of the paint. If we couldn’t contain Rondo, how would we have fared against Chris Paul? And now they picked up Posey…

Comment by Brandon Hoffman — July 16, 2008 @ 8:18 pm

New Orleans doesn’t have the personnel to bother Kobe as much as Boston did, has no answer for Odom, or Gasol for that matter. And their depth isn’t that great. I woulda been surprised if we needed more than 5 games to beat them actually. David West played about average to below average against the Lakers all year as well. Lest we forget the two blowouts we had against them (and I know one we almost gave the whole lead back but still). Not too impressed with NO actually. They’re good, but I don’t consider them title contenders.

Comment by Chise — July 16, 2008 @ 8:30 pm

Did anyone catch the summer league game? I read the boxscore and read that Crawford hit a game winner but I’d love to know some details if anyone has them. And, at this point isn’t Karl a lock? He seems to be playing well (like how a 2nd year player who has gotten better should), and with his knowledge of the system, I would think he’s definitely has a leg up on everyone else.

Comment by Darius — July 16, 2008 @ 9:13 pm

fanalyst, are you really training with lamar?

Comment by the other Stephen — July 16, 2008 @ 9:26 pm

Sorry for two in a row, but this really made me upset…

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/med/okc.gif

It was on the NBA page on ESPN on the transactions page.

Comment by Darius — July 16, 2008 @ 9:33 pm

54. “when you play the stock market, poker, or any other game involving gambling, it’s a general rule that you will only break-even in the long run.”

I don’t know about the stock market, but in poker that is absolutely not true. The top players in the world consistently make significant amounts of money, both in cash games and in tournaments.

In blackjack, craps, roulette and other games where you bet against the house, the longer you play the more likely you are to lose. But in poker, where you’re playing against other players, the longer you play the more likely it is that the skilled players will rise to the top.

Go back and look at WSOP results over a 10-year period. Not just wins, but final tables, cashes, player of the year standings and career earnings. I guarantee you’ll see the same names over and over and over again.

83. I don’t know where ESPN got that $74,789,590 figure, but it doesn’t sound right. If you add up all the salaries listed on the Trade Machine page, they add up to a figure in the mid 50’s, not including cap holds for free agents.

That number also isn’t consistent with the figures for the Hornets’ salaries listed on HoopsHype, DraftExpress and Storyteller. With Posey they’re closer to $64m, before deciding on their own free agents.

90. Sasha’s agent used to be Rob Pelinka several years ago before he switched to Bill Duffy. Now he’s switching back. I’m not sure if the fact that Pelinka also represents Kobe has any significance or not. Since he has represented Sasha in the past, it could just be a coincidence.

Comment by matt. — July 16, 2008 @ 11:26 pm

For guys who wanted some news on Garbajosa, i found this nice compilation of his plays in FIBA. The guy can definitely hit trey pretty damn well, knows how to put the ball on the floor, can finish at the rim, decent passer and plays hard not afraid to take a charge. He will play really well along side Pau. There’s another clip where he got two charges against Paul Pierce when he was playing for raptors. He will definitely be a good addition to our club at SF/PF if we could somehow nail him cheap. I heard rumor on hoopshype about him “Former Raptor Jorge Garbajosa has an offer from Khimki Moscow”. Seems like we need to move fast on him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhhbKYUvxow&feature=related
http://youtube.com/watch?v=hAFehjkQurI

Comment by Sushant — July 17, 2008 @ 12:10 am

For everyone who says Kobe NEEDS to take less to contend, I think you are all wrong. If there was a salary cap in the Michael Jordan era, would he have taken less? The answer is NO and neither will Kobe. He is the best player in the world and deserves to be paid like it.

Odom is the one who will need to take a serious pay cut if he wants to stay on a championship caliber team.

I just don’t think Kobe taking $4M less a year is going to determine this team’s future as an elite team. What will determine the Lakers future success is Mitch and Jerry’s decision making and willingness to sign the best players that complement Kobe, Drew and Pau; a pretty formidable nucleus whether Lamar resigns after 2009 or not.

I hope Buss just opens up the check book, matches Turiaf, matches Sasha’s future offer, gives Bynum his raise and works on Odom’s pay cut. Keep this team intact and go back to the finals with home court!

Great move by the Clippers and solid signing for New Orleans. The West gets tougher and the East…..waits for 2010 sweepstakes.

Mr. Bridges, not to argue for or against your points, but you mentioned that the Lakers have won 15 titles, when in fact it has been 14 (5 in Minneapolis, 1 with West/Chamberlain, 5 with Magic/Kareem, 3 with Kobe/Shaq)…..Hopefully number 15 is coming in 2009!

Comment by S.Nicholson — July 17, 2008 @ 5:02 am

S.Nicholson,

Michael didn’t back himself in a corner, so to speak, from a PR standpoint. Kobe did that last summer. The Lakers put up, so Kobe will have to, and it’s so obvious, that the Lakers probably will not need to even play that card publicly (it may even decide if they match Ronny, and they may be making Kobe aware of that). Everyone will be watching to see what Kobe does, and Kobe has come too far repairing his image to take 10 steps back seeming selfish. Now, remember, I feel this way because of the situation that was made. Should he be paid like the best? Of course. But Kobe made this an issue about contendin