Comments on: Tale of the Tape

By: Guanaquito

Guanaquito — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 01:57:45 +0000

lakers will win this series and here are the reasons why I think they will do it. Lakers have the best player on the planet,people may argue about Lebron but who is playing in the finals? Kobe..Second the magig dont have anybody that can match with Pau Gasol .Another reason is that Lakers have bodies to ban with howard they have Bynun and MBenga as the last resortLakers have experience these players have been there before the magic dont have anybody ..The Finals are a different story than playooffs games and Finally lakers defense . The defense has been terrific and people have not give them any credit yet. Reality is overlakers will win it

By: Kurt

Kurt — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 16:23:02 +0000

New post up

By: Gabriel R.

Gabriel R. — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 16:03:21 +0000

55: It was possible that Kobe didn’t act very sportsmanlike in that series back in 2006. But that was 3 years, people *grow* up in a sense. Kobe needed that time to know he wasn’t going to win being a one-man show especially with his help on the team. But I think I remember CLEARLY Kobe getting blasted by the media for a lot of things cause of the blowout ending of that game. Conduct might have been another thing they were piling on him.

That’s in the past. I think so far since, Kobe has proven he take it with the best of them, not to mention last year was probably the worst to take for losing.

Bye.

By: Craig W.

Craig W. — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 15:47:56 +0000

As an old-timer I want to say something about the athletes of the 60s (Russell, Chamberlain, West, Baylor, Oscar). These people weren’t worse athletes – heck Wilt was also a track and field guy and anybody remember Jim Brown – but they did play in a different time. There was a lot less money and there was no free agency. For Bill Russell, that meant he got to play with the same, top tier, athletes every year. Wilt went for the money (similar to Shaq), so he almost always was surrounded by lesser athletes. I can’t say too much about the others, except they kept running up against the Celtics and the Celtics didn’t give away any of their players until they couldn’t play any more.

By: Mohan

Mohan — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 15:24:17 +0000

Bill, you’re right on about the definition of probability. The fact is that there is real concept of “due” or “probability”, it’s more a matter of adjustment. Shots aren’t “bound to go in” unless you explicitly do something that guarantees the outcome. The same argument applies to the ideas of energy and experience in this series. The Lakers aren’t more probable to play better because of experience and the Magic aren’t more probable to play better because of the energy of the Finals (or getting Jameer Nelson back). It all comes down to putting those concepts to work.

On a separate note, props to Kurt for leading the Truehoop Stat Geek Smackdown. I’m looking forward to a Lakers guy taking home the crown.

By: Bill Bridges

Bill Bridges — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 15:08:37 +0000

#49, #51

Not exactly. The action in dice and cards are independent probability events. Shooting the ball is not. If Pau shoots his first 2 free throws short. He is likely to adjust by bending deeper and/or stronger follow-through. Pau’s actions governing his third and fourth shots are influenced by the results of his first and second foul shots.

Sometimes when Kobe shoots poorly for the game he goes back to the gym that night to put in extra practice. Craig Hodges might be there to coach Kobe and work on mechanics. This has an impact on Kobe’s shooting the next game. Kobe’s results in game2 are dependent on the actions he takes as a result of game 1.

This phenomena where there is an immediate feed-back to action and where the actor can influence the results is more like “Conditional Probability” statistically speaking; the past does influence the future, and not at all like flipping a coin.

By: luubi

luubi — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 15:02:55 +0000

Emma: I’m as apprehensive as you are. Worse, I think the “experience” and “you must lose before you can win one” thing are total b.s. Last year’s Celts did not need to lose first before winning (though they had a lot of veterans experienced with losing). Experience is a double edged sword and can work against you just as much as for you: you are saddled both with higher expectations and the traumatizing memory of wrenching losses.

What’s scary about the Magic is not only are they the toughest match-ups for us this post season but mentally they’ve been arguably the more resilient and consistent team. Until the last 2 games vs Denver, the Lakers had been as Kobe said bipolar. You never know what you’re going to get from the Lakers as a team and they seem to be susceptible to fear and self doubt. The Magic OTOH, are not scared of anybody. They don’t get fazed by anything. Game 7 at Boston? Feh. MVP and best home record? We’ll take game 1 and (almost) game 2, thank you. Blowing 10 pts lead late in the 4th? Losing last second buzzer beater? They just bounce right back. Their coach may or may not be the master of panic, but the Magic are sort of Zen, not by training but by natural inclination. They’re sort of the idiot savants of zendom.

And I don’t think they’ll be just happy to be there, either. They weren’t just happy to make it to the ECF, even though most people thought they’d done well to get there. No, sometimes teams win despite not really expecting or wanting it, and sometimes they lose expecting and wanting too much (Giants vs Patriots).

I think the 2 things we have in our favor: HCA and the K factor. We have a guy capable of playing on a different level than everyone else on court. We need him not so much to score a ton of points but to make everyone play better (although the two aren’t mutually exclusive). We need WCF game 5 and 6 Kobe. do it 4 more times, Black Mamba!

By: lakergirl

lakergirl — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:42:56 +0000

85. Was that interview by Phil prophecy or what. If you listen carefully he talks about luck (trevors 2 steals), he talks about playing as a team one time and getting inspired to do it again (Games 5 and 6 of the denver series) and so on. He started coaching from the playoffs in the regular season, thats what i love about Phil. Its always about the bigger picture. Thursday cant come any sooner.

By: Mohan

Mohan — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:34:47 +0000

Mimsy, I with you on both counts. Every morning for the past few days has been agonizing for me because I’ve realized how far away Thursday is.

By: Mimsy

Mimsy — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:13:51 +0000

Also, is it just me or is everyone all of a sudden rooting for this “charming” Magic team to beat the Lakers? Meh, I guess if I weren’t a Lakers fan, I’d probably root for them, too.

It’s not just you. The Lakers are a polarizing team like that. There’s probably a lot of people here who would root for any other team in the league if they face the Celtics. Though technically we would not be rooting for the Spurs or whoever, we would be rooting against the Celtics, and that’s probably what all the newcomers on the Magic bandwagon are doing. They’re rooting against the Lakers.

Personally, I’ll root for the team that knocked mine out, if that had happened. If we’re going to lose to anyone, it better be the Champions. Or, as is the case this year, we’ll hopefully become the champions.

Tomorrow nights seems so far, far away.