If the Lakers win tomorrow, I don’t see how they let this one slip away.

In fact, poor health played a huge role in some of the playoff series losses of the Magic era.

In 1983, Nixon played poorly after breaking his finger in the West playoffs, Worthy was out for the season with a broken leg, and McAdoo was also out of the Finals. Tough to win without two Hall of Famers and one All-Star.

In 1984, ummm….1984 never happened. Same as 1986. But we all remember that the Lakers went 11-0 in the West playoffs in 1989, then they had 10 or 12 days off after the WCF. So Riley took the team to Hawaii for two-a-day practices against the wishes of the players, who were getting older and needed rest, and Byron and Magic tore their hamstrings, probably as a direct result of fatigue (Byron before Game 1, Magic during Game 1). It took Byron almost one full year to recover from his injury and regain his stroke, and the rest of the team never forgave Riley for 1989 and basically told Buss and West that he had to go.

game 1 was a must-win for the Lakers, b/c to blow HCA right off the bat puts enormous pressure on them for game 2. If Magic had won game 1, game 2 would be a “freebie”: if they get game 2 also then they’re golden; if not, they will have gotten the split they wanted.

game 2 is a must-win for both teams. A 2-0 lead is a very commanding lead in the 2-3-2 format, esp given how the Lakers haven’t lost 3 consecutive games in the Gasol era. A split and we have a series on our hands.

game 3 is a must win for the Magic, more so than for the Lakers. If Magic are down 0-2, obviously they must have game 3 or it’s all over but the crying. If the series is even at 1-1, game 3 is still more of a must-win for the Magic for the same reason game 1 is more a must-win for the Lakers: giving back HCA right off the bat will be disastrous as it will put huge pressure on the Magic to win their next two home games, while the Lakers essentially get 2 free shots to drive the nail in the coffin.

and so on. I don’t think you can say at the start which is the most crucial game. Much depends on where the series stands and which teams are playing. Generally speaking, though, you don’t want to lose the first game to a) a PJ-coached team; b) the Lakers; and especially c) a PJ-coached Lakers team.

(egads, I hope I didn’t go and jinx them.)

Adjustments. I think ORL actually played Kobe okay tactically to give him that midrange jumper — he was just laser-like in the 2nd and 3rd, and could easily shoot a lower percentage. The problem is strategic… they really need to double Kobe and give Fish and Ariza the open 3s. Even if this leads to the same number of points, this will give them *higher-quality misses*… it will lead to some long rebounds with guards running out past the shooter, leading to running game and transition 3s. If Kobe takes the midrange jumpers with our bigs diving, or if he passes out to the Gasol high post-low post passing game, these lead to misses rebounding near the basket which we can contest, leading to few fast break points.

I really think that if the Lakers continue to shut off the Magic transition game, then the Magic will have a very hard time winning. They cannot beat the Lakers in a series using solely the half-court game… they would have to hope for monster penetration from the guards or terrible foul trouble for our bigs leading to Dwight going off.