Erez Buki is a long time reader and commenter under the handle P. Ami. Heading to live in the Bay Area this summer, Erez has had the pleasure of following the Lakers while growing up during the Showtime era in LA, seeing first hand what great team basketball looks like when played by the greatest players. Having lived around the world he learned the game playing street ball all over Manhattan and Brooklyn, the university courts of Beijing, the indoor games of Portland, Oregon and plenty of stops in between. It turns out you can make out the words Lakers, Kobe, Shaq and Magic in all the language groups on this planet. He is currently working on a his degree in Medical Anthropology waiting for the iconic Laker his young kids will grow up loving. This is his inaugural post on FB&G, but there will be more to come.

At least half of you had your feet off the ground at the same moment I did in June of 2010. We were up in the air feeling love when Lamar “hail maryed” the ball to the other side of the court and Kobe caught up to it. Up we went with him. The other half of you where in the air at the moment I landed. That is the love we all share. Since that time, our team has landed and landed hard. In five years, we’ve seen a lot of landing, some falling and often some clutching.

We don’t know if Kobe will be healthy next season. Don’t know if the Lakers will sign an impact free agent. Until recently we suffered the uncertainty over whether we’re getting one of those top-five picks. We are not used to feeling this kind of uncertainty in late April, but here we are. I don’t want to develop this bad habit. So lets focus on exploring the most imaginative part of the front office’s job, what available players in the draft may contribute to long playoff runs in the future.

It is impossible to know for certain who the Lakers will draft with the 27th and 34th picks in this up coming draft. It is also impossible to know if these players will ever have any impact, but I’m going to talk with you about the players that could be available to us in the late 1st and early 2nd rounds, the team’s more traditional draft position.

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Renato Afonso is a long time reader, commenter, and friend of FB&G.. He is based in Portugal, played semi-pro hoops, and after that coached his alma mater for two years. He now passes his time in a veteran’s league while waiting the arrival of his first born. This is his inaugural post at FB&G. Welcome, Renato!

In today’s NBA there’s a lot of talking about spacing, ball sharing, efficiency and advanced statistics. Teams like the Rockets assume that feeding a big man in the low post is nonsense and the long two is absolutely forbidden, maximizing the number of shots at the rim, three pointers and free throws.

But this new way of thinking can only be applied when you have good three point shooters, guys that are able to get to the rim and good free throw shooters. Obviously, a free throw is always uncontested but one can argue that an open midrange jump shot may be the most effective shot an offense can get at any given moment. Sometimes the defense doesn’t allow you to finish at the rim or simply denies open three point shots and all you’re left with is what the defense gives you. When such thing happens there’s an obligation to convert those midrange jumpshots. With this, the best shot isn’t necessarily a three pointer but actually the available open shot. It goes without saying that long contested twos are obviously worse than long contested threes. This is also assuming average players and not statistical outliers like our own Kobe Bryant.

In the midst of these thoughts, I found myself completely absorbed by the Grizzlies-Warriors series that proved that there are different ways to run an offense, there are different ways to play proper defense and talent can be presented in several ways.

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Is it just me or is the sun a bit brighter today?

Even if it’s not, it sure feels like it after the Lakers not only held on to their top-5 protected draft pick, but moved up to the 2nd slot overall by leapfrogging the Knicks (sorry, Phil) and the 76ers (more on them in a minute) at Tuesday’s NBA Draft Lottery. No, the Lakers didn’t get all the way to #1, but getting to #2 is a fantastic turn of events for an organization which hasn’t had many things go right in the last two plus seasons.

So, in the wake of all this happiness, below are 10 thoughts in the aftermath of the Lakers lucky lottery:

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Yes, the lead up to this was brutal. Sitting there watching the theatrics and built-in drama of the event was, well, not how I wanted to spend my time. I’d have honestly preferred to have been able to fast-forward this entire day with someone telling me the results just now.

Yet, there I was watching it all unfold. Like a kid reading one of those choose you own adventure novels, I was wondering if when I “turned to page X” it was going to be some unmitigated disaster or if some better, glorious fate awaited.

Turns out, the wait was well worth it. The Lakers not only keep their lottery pick, but they move up to the 2nd spot overall, sitting behind the Timberwolves and leapfrogging the Knicks and the 76ers in the process.

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

So, now we know. The Lakers will not only keep their pick, but be able to choose from all but one prospect come next month’s draft. Now, the question is, what will the Lakers do with that opportunity? Thrilled to say we get to find out.

Will today be the day that a little bit of luck interjects into the lives of Lakers’ fans? We can only hope.

Really, hope is all we can do. This isn’t like a big game where actual performance of professional athletes will determine the outcome. I remember the lead up to game 7 in the 2010 Finals and being a wreck, wondering if any one of a thousand variables would shift the game towards the Celtics. This is not that.

Tonight’s outcome will be determined by a machine spitting out numbered lottery balls to create a number sequence that determines the winner. That’s it.

No adjustments or pep talks or random role player performance will tilt the result. This doesn’t make it less stressful, but it does make it different. We’d all feel somewhat better if the Lakers’ pick would be theirs for sure, but, alas, we all know that is not the case.

For now, though, let’s detach ourselves from the anxiousness and review some of the key numbers and the odds of where the Lakers’ pick will land:

  • The Lakers have an 82.8% chance of retaining their pick
  • Odds the Lakers stay at #4: 9.9%
  • Odds the Lakers drop to #5: 35.1%
  • Odds the Lakers move up to #3: 13.3%
  • Odds the Lakers move up to #2: 12.6%
  • Odds the Lakers move up to #1: 11.9

Of course, if the Lakers have an 82.8% chance of keeping their pick, they have a 17.2% chance of losing it to the 76ers. Those odds break down like this:

  • Odds the Lakers fall to #6: 16.0%
  • Odds the Lakers fall to #7: 1.2%

Of note from all these numbers: The single most likely individual result is that the Lakers fall to #5. The next likely is that the Lakers fall to #6 (WELP). After that, however, there is a better chance that the Lakers move up to #’s 3, 2, or 1 (YES, PLEASE) than stay at #4.

So, based on the above, if you take comfort in numbers, you are still stressing the hell out. Yeah, I actually think I liked the feeling before the 2010 Game 7 better than this.

We’ll be back later with the results. ‘Til then, don’t mind me, I’ll just be sitting over there in the corner sweating this thing out.