This game was terrible and the Lakers offense was really bad, but the defense yet again was strong for LA and helped us earn the win. The Lakers have moved up from playing like a 31 win team to 33 after the ugly win against Phoenix. If you haven’t seen the following win projections before:
The Lakers played their worst game of the season in their rematch against Washington according to the Forum Blue & Gold Points Over Expectation (POE) NBA and Lakers data. By a lot. They rebounded somewhat against Milwaukee to only post their fifth worst POE performance on the year.
The worst game LA had played before Thursday was -13 combined points over expectation between offense and defense (POE = CPOE – DPOE). Their POE Thursday was -32.1, almost 20 points worse than their -13 vs the Jazz.
The Lakers showed great resilience in Wednesday’s game vs. Boston but ultimately didn’t come out of the game with a win. The team dropped from 15th in Points Over Expectation (POE) to 19th after an extremely poor offensive performance, sliding them down a win in the projected standings.
As Pete and Darius brought up on the latest LakerFilmRoom podcast, the Lakers’ team has been quite the inverse of what we’ve expected to see thus far. The defense has really carried the team while the offense is much lower ranked. This comes as a surprise to us all, but is it something we should believe in? Is the team’s defense legit, or should we expect it to regress a substantial degree negatively moving forward?
Let’s break down where the Lakers are conceding shots and learn more about those attempts to see just how far the Lakers defense might regress moving forward based on how they’ve played so far.
I can’t predict what the Lakers defense will look like in a month, but we can look at what has happened so far and see if statistically if the results have not lined up with the process.
The Lakers are 0.500! And that’s no sham, because the Lakers data shows the team, based on their points over expectation and remaining schedule are projected to win 40 games this season! It’s incredibly impressive that as the season has gone on the team has continued to take steps forward and improve their overall POE game after game.
We’ll start this Lakers data report with a quick projected standings update. These win projections are based off of how teams are playing right now and their odds to win each remaining game based on team POE, team rest days before each game, and whether the game is home or away.
The Lakers have jumped up to the ninth projected best record in the West and are projected to win 39 games. Not too long ago this projection was in the 20s, so the steady upwards trajectory (even in a loss to Portland) is a positive sign moving forward. Continue Reading…
Several new additions have been made to the NBA and Lakers data spreadsheet that I’ve created and am updating daily.
Rookie Draft Tab
Want to quickly check and see how each draft pick has performed so far this season? Look no further than the “Rookie Draft” tab on the spreadsheet. You can sort by any of the columns, filter by team, and see just how elite Kyle Kuzma has been compared to the other rookies so far this season.
It’s never a good feeling losing a game, but it’s especially bitter losing such a close game that the Lakers led for a while in the fourth quarter. We’re left with another loss, but we’re also left with some encouraging Lakers data in a couple areas.
In fact, despite losing to Portland, the team’s Points Over Expectation (POE) slightly improved, and the team is playing through eight games like it’s a 35 win team.