Archives For Basketball Strategy

Matt Scribbins provides insight and analysis throughout ESPN’s TrueHoop Network, including at HoopData and Magic Basketball. He graduated with distinction from Iowa State University last spring, where he was also a member of the Cyclone football team. In the fall, Matt is part of Football Outsiders’ Game Charting Project. You can also find him on twitter: @mattscribbins

Last week, I broke down the Lakers’ tendency since the All-Star break to entice opponents into low percentage shots. With the playoffs magnificently close, here is a look at how the Lakers’ main intra-conference foes shoot from various locations. 

Your Attention Please

Some offenses intentionally shoot long jumpers to help their transition defense.

Some defenses intentionally leave players open from long range (e.g., Rajon Rondo). On the other hand, Kevin Durant may have a hand in his face at all times, and research has shown shooting percentage decreases with tight defense.

Red cells in the charts indicate a player shoots below league average in the specified zone. Players who only attempt shots near the rim are not included in this piece. Also, please remember some players may attempt six shots per game in a specific zone while another player may attempt only three from the same distance.

The number after each team name indicates NBA shooting rank using effective field goal percentage as the barometer. The number below each zone indicates the team’s rank in the specified zone, according to shooting percentage. Effective field goal percentage is used for three point shots.

The following designations will be used: Zone 1 (within two feet of rim), Zone 2 (3-9 feet), Zone 3 (10-15 feet), Zone 4 (16-23 feet), Zone 5 (three point shots).

All statistics were updated the final week of March and are courtesy of hoopdata.com.

San Antonio Spurs #3

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A playoff matchup between the Spurs and Lakers would pit strength against strength and break the record for “live by three, die by three” remarks. The Lakers defend three-point shots better than anyone in the West, and the Spurs’ shooting percentage in Zone 5 is the best in the NBA.

As noted last week, the Lakers have coaxed opponents into more long jumpers since the All-Star break. San Antonio is great all over the court but struggles mightily in Zone 4. It should be noted only the Magic and Clippers attempt fewer shots in Zone 4 than the Spurs.

The Spurs’ offense is led by Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Lakers can make the Spurs’ offense feckless if they force these guards to pull up in Zone 4. The duo can wreak havoc with penetration, but Rajon Rondo actually shoots better on long jumpers than Ginobili or Parker.

The Lakers second half defensive surge has been led by great defense in Zone 2 and San Antonio is the second best shooting team in the NBA in Zone 2. The defensive dominance from Lakers in Zones 2 and 5, combined with the Spurs offensive success in these zones, sets the stage for a classic series.

Dallas Mavericks #1

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This isn’t breaking any news, but Los Angeles will end a series versus Dallas post-haste if they pry the ball from Dirk Nowitzki’s hands. Dirk’s 2011 shootings percentages have skyrocketed from his 2010 marks everywhere besides on three-point shots.

Most notably, his current shooting percentage on long jumpers is the best on his Hoop Data profile, which dates back to his MVP season. In 2010, Dirk made 46% of his shots in Zone 4. This season, he has improved his mark by over 17%. Furthermore, Dirk’s shooting performance in nearly every zone is his best over the last five seasons. His only declines are in Zone 2 (46% in 2008), and Zone 5 (63.2% in 2010), hardly a setback in either category.

Jason Terry is also an elite shooter. Zone 2 is the only spot Terry shoots below average. Over 60% of Terry’s attempts come beyond 16 feet from the hoop.

Jason Kidd is a below average shooter everywhere, but he basically only attempts three-pointers.

The second-tier players for Dallas are decent near the rim, and shaky beyond the arc. If the Lakers can force Barea and Beaubois to hoist it from deep, the footage may make Mark Cuban wish there was no such thing as HDTV.

The most notable difference between the teams sandwiching the Lakers in the standings are their offensive ranks in Zone 4. Dallas is the best shooting team in the NBA between 16 and 23 feet, and the Spurs rank 24th.

Oklahoma City Thunder #14

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A playoff matchup between Los Angeles and Oklahoma City may turn into the cutest series ever. The Thunder is the epitome of a team the Lakers revamped defense is designed to stop.  Oklahoma City is a young team who can shoot all over, but shooting is different than making. The Thunder is a below average shooting team from every area on the floor excluding shots in Zone 1. They are elite within two feet of the rim, but the NBA’s worst shooting team in Zone 2.

Kevin Durant is the league’s leading scorer, and his shooting ability receives great accolades. Maybe, though, his shooting isn’t as great as advertised. Durantula actually shoots below average from 16 feet and beyond. Two small forwards on contending teams in the East (Paul Pierce and Hedo Turkoglu) shoot significantly better in Zones 4 and 5. Even The King Without a Ring has a better percentage than Durant in Zone 4. 

Unfortunately for Scott Brooks, Russell Westbrook’s shooting percentages resemble Jason Kidd’s. Even worse, Westbrook shoots a dozen more shots per game than Kidd does. He attempts 6.9 shots per game in Zone 1, only trailing Carmelo Anthony and dunk heroes Dwight Howard and Blake Griffin.  On the plus side, Oklahoma City’s point guard can slice defenses, and his turnover rate is better than other great players at his position.

James Harden is the team’s sniper, but he doesn’t make Ray Allen blush. He merely hits league average beyond the arc, and his skills don’t travel inside Zone 4.

Percentages point to a simple strategy against the Thunder’s offense: make Durant shoot outside, make Harden shoot inside, and convince Westbrook to shoot everywhere.

Portland Trailblazers #22

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Only masochistic Portland fans should watch this team shoot. Below average percentages in every zone cannot excited the Rose Garden faithful.

One would surmise the Blazers must lock it down on defense, but they actually allow the eighth highest effective field goal percentage in the NBA. Portland makes their money by owning the best turnover rate differential in in the Association.

All-Star snub LaMarcus Aldridge is a monster inside, and he deserves credit for shooting better in Zone 4 than Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Manu Ginoboli, and Tony Parker. Making the feat even more impressive is the fact Aldridge attempts more than four long jumpers per game.

Gerald Wallace’s numbers are from his 2011 campaign in Charlotte. He appeared in more games for the Bobcats, and his numbers from Charlotte are more consistent with his career averages.

Memphis Grizzlies #21

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This is quick – Memphis is decent inside, and a disaster outside. If it is any consolation, fans in Memphis can smile knowing Marc Gasol shoots better inside nine feet than his All-Star brother does.

The Grizzles lost a great shooter when Rudy Gay went out for the season. Mike Conley is currently the best outside threat in Memphis, and he attempts over five shots per game in Zones 4 and 5.

Final Horn

The Lakers are rolling and it may not matter who they take on in the playoffs. Nonetheless, they could face the best shooting team in the NBA and also the third best shooting team during their Western Conference run. If Denver pulls off two upsets, the Lakers could also face the second best shooting team in the NBA.

All of the listed teams are at least close to average near the rim and below average in Zone 4, with Dallas being the only exception. The Lakers will be in great shape if they continue to limit attempts near the hoop and coax their opponents to launch long jumpers.

-Matt Scribbins

During the Lakers opening night game, Darius and I noticed the Houston Rockets using the Lakers’ perimeter aggressiveness to their advantage. Guys like Ron Artest, Matt Barnes and Kobe Bryant, who are very aggressive defenders, become susceptible to back door cuts. There were a few occasions where one of the Lakers’ wing defenders were over playing on the perimeter and the offensive player was able to cut backdoor for an easy bucket. Giving up easy buckets isn’t ever good, but the Artest-Barnes-Bryant trio playing aggressively on the perimeter is going to pay dividends for this team as the season progresses. In this post, we’re interested in how the Lakers were able to make slight adjustments to their defensive philosophy to stop Houston’s Princeton offense — something that I think this team is going to be able to do throughout the season against all teams. Phil Jackson has the right personnel to make in game adjustments and see those adjustments applied on the floor. Before I get into how the Lakers were able to adjust, I’ll let Darius break down how Houston ran their offense:

In the diagrams below, you can see exactly what Houston is trying to do in order to set up their standard screen/cut sequence that is a staple of their Princeton sets.  What the Rockets want to accomplish is to get the Lakers’ defense moving from side to side in order to loosen up the defense to make their (eventual) entry pass into the high post easier.  They accomplish this by running a dribble hand off sequence.  Brooks starts out going to his right off a Scola screen and then handing off to Battier.  Battier then circles towards the top of the key again using a Scola pick.  After coming off that pick, Battier initiates the set by passing the ball to Brad Miller at the FT line extended.  Miller then holds then waits for Kevin Martin to make his read where Martin either comes to the wing to receive a pass or cut back door if the Laker defender overplays the cut to the top.  In this instance, Kobe gets caught cheating to the topside and gets beat on Martin’s back cut.

fast draw

Here is the sequence in real time:

In this next play, the Rockets again look to initiate their offense through Miller at the high post.  After Brooks brings the ball across half court, he passes to Miller and then proceeds to set a down screen for Chase Budinger who waits on the wing.  In this sequence there are a couple of different options, but much like the Triangle offense, the Princeton offense requires the players to make reads in the moment and play off what the defenders are doing.  In this case, rather than come off Brooks’ screen to receive the pass from Miller, Budinger notices that Barnes starts to cheat topside to fight over the screen and quickly cuts back door.  Miller then executes a beautiful drop pass to Chase and the 2nd year wing flushes the ball on a late challenging Barnes.  Again, the Lakers over aggressiveness is beat with a back cut.

fast draw 2

Here is the play in real time:

One of the reasons both of those plays looked so good was because of their ability to execute. They were able to accomplish exactly what was diagramed. When teams execute that well, one of two things are happening: 1) The offense is completely dominating the defense, no matter what the defense throws at them or 2) The defense isn’t doing anything to disrupt execution. If you go back and watch those clips, there isn’t anything disrupting the Rockets’ offense. Both of the above clips began with getting the ball to Brad Miller at the pinch post; there was no disruption in getting him the ball, and when he had the ball, there was no ball pressure on his passes to the cutting man. Now look at the way the Lakers defended these same sets in these next two clips.

When watching this first clip, there are a few things you should pay attention to. One of them is the fact that the Lakers were switching on screens. Instead of allowing either Aaron Brooks or Kevin Martin to penetrate, the Lakers either switched, or “showed” very well on all screens. This keeps the whole defense between the ball and the basket, as more defenders between ball and basket allows for more help if an offensive player cuts backdoor.

1-001

This second picture shows, again, the Lakers switching on screens. If LO doesn’t slide over and help Kobe, Brooks turns the corner and gets an easy bucket. The Lakers don’t get enough credit for their ability to work as a unified group. When they’re committed to stopping a team, they communicate well and move well together. This stopped penetration and Brooks was eventually forced to pick up his dribble.

1-002

In this last picture, it shows that the Lakers are starting to pick up on what the Rockets are trying to accomplish. Look at Brad Miller at the top of the key. He’s being watched by two Lakers as Brooks looks to get it to him. Chase Budinger was in the corner waiting for Miller to receive the ball to cut back door. Because Shannon Brown and Theo Ratliff had the presence of mind to step in front of Miller, the possession ended with Budinger forcing up a three pointer with the shot clock running down.

1-003

This final clip is a great example of disrupting execution. When a team is getting what they want against your defense, your defense has to become annoying to a degree. On this play, Lakers’ defenders entered the Rockets personal space. Again, it’s about changing angles on passing lanes and disrupting the offense to a point where execution becomes difficult. We’re talking about simple ideologies, but it’s the simple and little things that make good teams great. Here, the Lakers do the little things and end up forcing a turnover.

This first picture shows Derek Fisher with his hand up, trying to disrupt the entry pass to Brad Miller. Not only was he trying to make the entry pass harder, but it was a text book closeout. In some of the earliest levels of basketball, they teach you to close out with your left hand up on right hand shooters. Brooks isn’t shooting the ball, but since he’s right handed, Fisher’s left hand is the closest to where the ball is being released from. Granted, Fish is a lefty, so that may have something to do with it, but it’s as fundamental as you can get in getting in the way of an entry pass. What is harder to see here is Pau Gasol defending Miller. Instead of simply allowing the pass to come in, Gasol was draped over Miller, trying to get around or go through him to get to the pass. Miller gets the ball, but it wasn’t an easy entry pass by any means, and definitely much harder than either of the two from the first two clips.

1-004

In this final picture, we see Shane Battier cutting and appears to be open. However, Gasol still hasn’t given up on the play, getting his hand in the passing lane, making Miller’s pass as tough as possible. Instead of getting the pass to Battier when he wants to, Gasol is able to delay him long enough to give Kobe time to recover and time for Lamar Odom to slide over to the help side. The Lakers force the turnover which leads to a Kobe jumper on the other end.

1-005

In the Preview and Chat for the Warriors game, commenter Andres expressed some concern about the Lakers defense. As I said during those comments, the Lakers are going to be just fine. This is a veteran group of guys being led by the greatest coach in NBA history. This Lakers team is an intelligent bunch who can make adjustments as needed. We may not always like how long it takes them to figure out the offense or their effort, but this is a team that can stop anyone when they’re doing the little things that make them so good.

What Would Tex Say?

Bill Bridges —  May 27, 2010

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All basketball fans have been heartened over the news over the last 6 months or so that Tex Winter is doing so much better. Since he is doing better and presumeably watching Phil Jackson’s team, we can guess that Phil and Tex have spoken recently about the problems Phoenix’s zone defense has posed to Tex’s beloved triple post offense.
Phil: Tex, I’m returning your call. I presume you want to talk about our execution – or lack thereof against Phoenix’s girly zone defense.
Tex: Phil, actually I think the triangle is being run well. Guys are getting some penetration via post passes, splitting the top of the zone on occasion and the shots we are getting are usually wide-open.
Phil: Yeah, our shots are wide open…
Tex: But the shots we are getting are exactly what Phoenix wants to give us.
Phil: Your triangle teaches the players to take the first open shot available. In fact, we criticize our players when they pass up wide open shots.
Tex: Hey, don’t call it my offense, by now, Mr. Hall of Fame, the offense is as much a part of your legacy as it is mine.
Phil: Hmmm
Tex: Phoenix isn’t really playing a traditional zone trying to cover all attack zones on the court. I mean, a priority of most zone defenses is to stop the corner 3, the most devastatingly effective shot in the NBA. The girly zone actually is begging for our guys to take the corner 3.
Phil: Not all our guys, just Artest and Odom
Tex: And Farmar, Brown, even Kobe and Fisher. They don’t want to give up layups to Pau.
Phil: And because in the triangle, we have taught our guys to take the open shot…
Tex: Artest shoots the open 3 whether early in the shot clock or late.
Phil: The other problem Tex, is that we are just not drawing any fouls.
Tex: Yeah, foul shots would slow the game, stop their transition offense, give Kobe a rest, and…
Phil: Instead, the long 3’s are creating long rebounds and fueling their transition game. I’m not sure what to do ….
Tex: You have to disregard the zone.
Phil: What do you mean?
Tex: You look at the Phoenix’s zone and see a 2-3 zone with defenders at each attack zone.
Phil: Yeah, that is a zone… I don’t know what you are getting at.
Tex: Instead, just look at the tape.
Phil: OK
Tex: After the first triangle set-up pass and the ball is in Fisher’s hands on the right wing, what do you see?
Phil: (Stops the tape). I see the zone setting up…
Tex: No , what do you SEE?
Phil: What do you mean?
Tex: WHO do you see
Phil: I see Nash…
Tex: Stop, who is behind Nash.
Phil: Stoudemire…
Tex: Who is in front of Nash?… Forget this. I’m faxing over a diagram for you to look at…. Did you get it?
Phil: Kobe… aha…. I get it.
Tex: It is obvious isn’t it?
Phil: Crystal
Tex: Swing the ball quickly to Kobe. Now you have Kobe Bryant one-on-one against the most defensively challenged guard in the league. Kobe will get past Nash easily or draw a foul. After he gets past Nash…
Phil: Amare has to cover..
Tex: The most defensively challenged PF in the game…Kobe scores or draws a foul.
Phil: If Lopez comes over to help..
Tex: Dunk for Pau.
Phil: You know if they were playing man and put Nash on Kobe, I’d go to him every single possession and why am I not exploiting this match up just because they are playing zone.
Tex: This strategy also solves your other problem.
Phil: What is that?
Tex: Other than Kobe and Pau, your players are dumb
Phil: Hey, they are your players too.
Tex: All the players that can drive to the basket, Odom and Artest, should drive on Nash and Stoudemire.
Phil: They will get some charging calls against them, Nash is a world-class flopper.
Tex: So what, a few charging calls. But at least you’ll be initiating the contact and knocking Nash over a few times will wear him out and will help your defense by the 4th quarter. Tell your guys…
Phil: Attack Nash
Tex: Or Dragic or Barbosa
Phil: And Stoudemire to get penetration. Which will result in layups, dunks or fouls.
Tex: And if, and only if, all else fails take the open 3 late in the shot clock. And never early in the shot clock because that open corner 3 will always be there.

All basketball fans have been heartened over the news over the last 6 months or so that Tex Winter is doing so much better. Since he is doing better and presumeably watching Phil Jackson’s team, we can guess that Phil and Tex have spoken recently about the problems Phoenix’s zone defense has posed to Tex’s beloved triple post offense.

Phil: Tex, I’m returning your call. I presume you want to talk about our execution – or lack thereof against Phoenix’s girly zone defense.

Tex: Phil, actually I think the triangle is being run well. Guys are getting some penetration via post passes, splitting the top of the zone on occasion and the shots we are getting are usually wide-open.

Phil: Yeah, our shots are wide open…

Tex: But the shots we are getting are exactly what Phoenix wants to give us.

Phil: Your triangle teaches the players to take the first open shot available. In fact, we criticize our players when they pass up wide open shots.

Tex: Hey, don’t call it my offense! By now, Mr. Hall of Fame, the offense is as much a part of your legacy as it is mine.

Phil: Hmmm

Tex: Anyway, Phoenix isn’t really playing a traditional zone trying to cover all attack zones on the court. I mean, a priority of most zone defenses is to stop the corner 3, the most devastatingly effective shot in the NBA. The girly zone actually is begging for our guys to take the corner 3.

Phil: Not all our guys, just Artest and Odom

Tex: And Farmar, Brown, even Kobe and Fisher. They are desperate not  to give up layups to Pau.  Yeah, that Phoenix defense is like a siren, a temptress that lets you nuzzle her navel all night long but…

Phil: But won’t let you go any lower…  And because in the triangle, we have taught our guys to take the open shot…

Tex: Artest shoots the open 3 whether early in the shot clock or late.

Phil: The other problem Tex, is that we are just not drawing any fouls.

Tex: Yeah, foul shots would slow the game, stop their transition offense, give Kobe a rest, and…

Phil: Instead, the long 3’s are creating long rebounds and fueling their transition game. I’m not sure what to do ….

Tex: You have to disregard the zone.

Phil: What do you mean?

Tex: And forget about the triangle

Phil: What? What are you saying, forget the triangle and forget the zone. Tex, I thought you were feeling better.

Tex: You look at the Phoenix’s zone and see a 2-3 zone with defenders at each attack zone.

Phil: Yeah, that is a zone… I don’t know what you are getting at.

Tex: Instead, just look at the tape.

Phil: OK

Tex: After the first triangle set-up pass and the ball is in Fisher’s hands on the right wing, what do you see?

Phil: (Stops the tape). I see the zone setting up…

Tex: No , what do you SEE?

Phil: What do you mean?

Tex: WHO do you see

Phil: I see Nash…

Tex: Stop, who is behind Nash.

Phil: Stoudemire…

Tex: Who is in front of Nash?… Forget this. I’m faxing over a diagram for you to look at…. Did you get it?

Suns Zone

Phil: Kobe… aha…. I get it.

Tex: It is obvious isn’t it?

Phil: Crystal

Tex: In a situation with 10 equal players, the triangle gives the offense the advantage.

Phil: (a delighted glee escapes from his lips)

Tex: But you don’t have 10 equal players. Swing the ball quickly to Kobe. Now you have Kobe Bryant, the best one-on-one player in the world against the worst one-on-one defender in the league. Kobe will get past Nash easily or draw a foul. After he gets past Nash…

Phil: Amare has to cover..

Tex: The most defensively challenged PF in the game…Kobe scores or draws a foul.

Phil: If Lopez comes over to help..

Tex: Dunk for Pau.

Phil: You know if they were playing man and put Nash on Kobe, I’d go to him every single possession and why am I not exploiting this match up just because they are playing zone.

Tex: This strategy also solves your other problem.

Phil: What is that?

Tex: Other than Kobe and Pau, your players are dumb

Phil: Hey, they are your players too.

Tex: Maybe I’m not being kind. What I mean is, instead of trying to be smart, run the triangle and take open shots…

Phil: As you taught them to…

Tex: All the players that can drive to the basket, Odom and Artest, should just drive on Nash and Stoudemire. or Dragic, Barbosa… with aggression. And not try to over think how the triangle functions against the zone.

Phil: They will get some charging calls against them, Nash is a world-class flopper.

Tex: So what, a few charging calls. But at least you’ll be initiating the contact and knocking Nash over a few times will wear him out and will help your defense by the 4th quarter. Tell your guys…

Phil: Attack Nash

Tex: Or Dragic or Barbosa

Phil: And Stoudemire to get penetration. Which will result in layups, dunks or fouls.

Tex: And if, and only if, all else fails take the open 3 late in the shot clock. And never early in the shot clock because that open corner 3 will always be there.

Phil: I knew I should have adopted the Princeton offense…

Tex: (Hangs up)

What the Stats Show Us

Bill Bridges —  November 26, 2009

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Since the days of Show Time (and even from the West/Baylor/Chamberlain era), the Lakers have been known as an offensive team. Despite the mantras of “Defensive wins championships” and “No rebounds, no rings”, most fans and all of the press basically ignored these aphorisms as it applies to the Lakers. No, the Laker s are about scoring, and scoring in spectacular ways.
Well if the 2009/2010 Lakers continue at current pace, they are about to shatter  this perception. With basically the same personnel*, they have transformed from an outstanding offensive team that played very good defense to a mediocre offensive team that plays outstanding defense.
In 08/09, LAL was ranked 3rd at offensive efficiency at 112.8 and 6th at defensive efficiency at 104.7. The league average was 108.3. This year the Lakers are 19th on offensive at 105.5 and 3rd on defense at 100. The league average is 106.0. Had the bench been able to maintain large 4th quarter leads, undoubtedly both the offensive and defensive ratings would be better. However, this marginal increase might have pushed the Lakers to 15 – 17th on offense whereas on defense the Lakers would be 1st.
Even with the spotty bench play, the Lakers would be #1 on defense if they had a higher Defensive Rebounding Rate because of their excellent defensive EFG% and . Although recently improved, the Lakers’ Defensive rebounding rate is  .712 which is 24th in the league. Offensive rebounds create shots at the rim or shots while the defense is in scramble mode (remember Tim Thomas’s back breaking 3 in game 6 when the Lakers couldn’t handle the defensive rebound?) and increases the defensive team’s Ortg.
So the questions that come to mind are:
1. Why is the defense so good
2. Why are they so poor at defensive rebounding
3. Why has the offense slowed (and why is the Ortg so much lower)
The answers to all three points are related.  It is no secret that the Lakers have thrived in the paint this year.  Using the NBA hotspots designations, last year the 42% of the Lakers’ FGA was at the rim (for a FG% of 58%). This year whilst shooting a slightly lower FG% of 55%(no doubt due to Kobe’s dominance and Pau’s absence), 44% of their shots are at the rim. No doubt this increases with Pau’s return.
Shots in the paint slows and disrupts the opponent’s offense. Short shots do not create long rebounds. Long rebounds fuels fast breaks. Made baskets is the best catalyst of good defense as the offense begins by taking the ball out of the rim. This is where EFG% is misleading. I’d much rather have a team shoot 60% from 2 exclusively than 40% from 3 even though the EFG% is the same because there are 20% less missed shots that could possibly create transition offense for the opposition.
So shots in the paint improves the Lakers’ ability to get back and get their defense set. Bynum, especially has been hustling back. In addition, the team seems to have a coherent scheme on defending the screenroll. They do not stick to one scheme. Sometimes the defender goes under the screen, other times he fights over. When he fights over, the big consistently shows aggressively and gets back to his man. The Lakers have been very good this year at reducing penetration. Reducing penetration and the resulting kick out for a wide-open 3, results in a defensive 3FG% of .297, best in the league. Their overall FG% defensive isn’t too shabby either at .421, second in the league. Fisher’s perimeter defense has been outstanding – not coincidentally aided by Bynum’s improvement on the show and recovery phases of screenroll defense. Farmar has been surprisingly good also, especially at fighting over screens – a skill I thought he would never ever get.
So nearly 71% of the opponent’s 3 point shots result in misses. Missed 3 point shots create long rebounds.  Long rebounds’ trajectories are more volatile than short shots.  Remember your high school physics? E = ½ mv^2. A long shot by definition has higher kinetic energy and the bounce is both longer and more erratic. Long erratic bounces create more opportunities for the offensive team to rebound the ball. Also, when teammates expect a miss they crash the boards more. Whereas when every shot is going in teammates begin to jog back on defense. Of course, here Bynum’s eagerness the run down on offense to establish the “seal” on offense does not help him in working harder for a tough rebound.  He has improved markedly in this arena though in the last few games and this has helped as has the guards’ aggressiveness in rebounding long misses (in the Knicks game,  Fisher collected 5 defensive rebounds which must be a season high). So as long as the Laker’s deter post offense, reduce dribble penetration, and rotate out to shooter, opponent’s 3FG% will be low. Pau’s return, better guard rebounding, and more focus from Bynum will help, but the Lakers will not lead the league in Defensive Rebounding Rate.
What about on offense. Surprisingly this year’s Lakers have a higher pace than last year’s,  96 versus 94.3 for 6th fastest in the league.  So why is the Lakers’ offensive so much worse this year than last.:
1. Pau’s absense. An obvious factor as he is such an excellent facilitator.
2. Abysmal shooting by the bench
3. LO has not been posting up. He is very effective posting up on the right block but can’t remember more than a few instances when the Lakers used him in this way. It is as if he expected the spate of 3 point shooting in the finals to carry over. It hasn’t LO has reverted back to the mean. And it hurts.
Now that he is in the second unit, LO should be the go to guy in the post. This will increase his FG% give better  floor balance, and create open perimeter looks. LO will pass out of double teams whereas Bynum has trouble doing so. I look for PJ to set up LO down low more often with the second unit. This will dramatically improve the  offense rather than having him floating around on the perimeter taking  jump shots.  Improved offense,  especially low post offense, means better defense. This will help to improve point #2.
I could write an entire post detailing how good Artest has been on defense but anyone who watched him shut down Joe Johnson and Kevin Durant can’t wonder whether the Artest/Ariza trade was an upgrade or not – at least on defense. He is finishing 50% at the rim which is a worry but not surprising.

Since the days of Show Time (and even from the West/Baylor/Chamberlain era), the Lakers have been known as an offensive team. Despite the mantras of “Defensive wins championships” and “No rebounds, no rings”, most fans and all of the press basically ignored these aphorisms as it applies to the Lakers. No, the Laker s are about scoring, and scoring in spectacular ways.

Well if the 2009/2010 Lakers continue at current pace, they are about to shatter  this perception. With basically the same personnel*, they have transformed from an outstanding offensive team that played very good defense to a mediocre offensive team that plays outstanding defense.

In 08/09, LAL was ranked 3rd at offensive efficiency at 112.8 and 6th at defensive efficiency at 104.7. The league average was 108.3. This year the Lakers are 19th on offense at 105.5 and 3rd on defense at 100. The league average is 106.0. Had the bench been able to maintain large 4th quarter leads, undoubtedly both the offensive and defensive ratings would be better. However, this marginal increase might have pushed the Lakers to 15 – 17th on offense whereas on defense the Lakers would be 1st.

Even with the spotty bench play, the Lakers would be #1 on defense if they had a higher Defensive Rebounding Rate because of their excellent defensive EFG% . And lthough recently improved, the Lakers’ Defensive rebounding rate is  .712 which is 24th in the league. Offensive rebounds create shots at the rim or shots while the defense is in scramble mode (remember Tim Thomas’s back breaking 3 in game 6 when the Lakers couldn’t handle the defensive rebound?) and increases the defensive team’s Ortg.

So the questions that come to mind are:

  1. Why is the defense so good
  2. Why are they so poor at defensive rebounding
  3. Why is the offense so mediocre

The answers to all three points are related.  It is no secret that the Lakers have thrived in the paint this year.  Using the NBA hotspots designations, last year the 42% of the Lakers’ FGA was at the rim (for a FG% of 58%). This year whilst shooting a slightly lower FG% of 55%(no doubt due to Kobe’s dominance and Pau’s absence), 44% of their shots are at the rim. Both the rate and FG% should increases with Pau’s return.

Shots in the paint act to reduce the opponent’s offensive efficiency. Short shots do not create long rebounds. Long rebounds fuels fast breaks. Transition offense is the easiest and most efficient offense. Reducing this improves defensive efficiency. A made baskets is the best catalyst of good defense as the offense begins by taking the ball out of the rim and the defense can get set. This is where EFG% is misleading. I’d much rather have a team shoot 60% from 2 exclusively than 40% from 3 even though the EFG% is the same because there are 20% less missed shots that could possibly create transition offense for the opposition.

So shots in the paint improves the Lakers’ ability to get back and get their defense set. Bynum, especially has been hustling back – for the first time in his career. In addition, the team seems to have a strategy on defending the screenroll. They do not stick to one scheme. Sometimes the defender goes under the screen, other times he fights over. When he fights over, the big consistently shows aggressively and gets back to his man. The Lakers have been very good this year at reducing penetration. Reducing penetration and the resulting kick out for a wide-open 3, shows in their defensive 3FG% of .297, best in the league. Their overall FG% defensive isn’t too shabby either at .421, second in the league. Fisher’s perimeter defense has been outstanding – not coincidentally aided by Bynum’s improvement on the show and recovery phases of screenroll defense. Farmar has been surprisingly good also, especially at fighting over screens – a skill I thought he would never ever get.

So nearly 71% of the opponent’s 3 point shots result in misses. Missed 3 point shots create long rebounds.  Long rebounds’ trajectories are more volatile than short shots and harder to gage.  Remember your high school physics? E = ½ mv^2. A long shot by definition has higher kinetic energy and the bounce is both longer and more erratic. Long erratic bounces create more opportunities for the offensive team to rebound the ball. Also, when teammates expect a miss they crash the boards more. Whereas when every shot is going in teammates begin to jog back on defense. Of course, here Bynum’s eagerness the run down on offense to establish the “seal” on offense does not help him in working harder for a tough rebound.  He has improved markedly in this arena though in the last few games and this has helped as has the guards’ recent aggressiveness in rebounding long misses (in the Knicks game,  Fisher collected 5 defensive rebounds which must be a season high). So as long as the Laker’s deter post offense, reduce dribble penetration, and rotate out to shooter, opponent’s 3FG% will be low. Pau’s return, better guard rebounding, and more focus from Bynum will help, but the Lakers will not lead the league in Defensive Rebounding Rate.

What about on offense. Surprisingly this year’s Lakers have a higher pace than last year’s,  96 versus 94.3 for 6th fastest in the league.  So why is the Lakers’ offense so much worse this year than last. Some possible reasons:

1. Pau’s absense. An obvious factor as he is such an excellent facilitator.

2. Abysmal shooting by the bench. (As well as the selfish play, turnovers etc. etc.  let’s not go on …)

3. LO has not been posting up. He is very effective posting up on the right block but can’t remember more than a few instances when the Lakers used him in this way. It is as if he expected the spate of 3 point shooting in the finals to carry over. It hasn’t and LO has reverted back to the mean. And it hurts.

Now that he is in the second unit, LO should be the go to guy in the post. This will increase his FG%, creat better  floor balance, and generate open perimeter looks. LO will pass out of double teams whereas Bynum has trouble doing so. I look for PJ to set up LO down low more often with the second unit. This will dramatically improve the  offense rather than having him floating around on the perimeter taking  jump shots.  Improved offense,  especially low post offense, means better defense. This will help to improve point #2.

4. The lack of free throws. The Lakers have been poor at drawing fouls and going to the line. They are 28th in the league averaging .185 FT attempts per FGA. Free throws are the best quality shots, of course. Free throws also help the defense, for reasons already mentioned. What is odd is that given that the Lakers are the most low-post oriented team and get the most points in the paint in the League, you would think that it would also draw a lot more free throws. Indeed the other teams with low FT/FGA ratios are all perimeter teams; the Knicks, Bucks, Wolves, and Bulls. This is hard to understand.  Perhaps the fact that post play is officiated as a wrestling match whereas the perimeter is a dance hall hurts the Lakers. Pau, Bynum, and Kobe can be pounded inside without a call whereas the slightest incidental contact to Chris Paul draws a whistle. Other factors include that the Lakers do not have a single player who aggressively drive to the rim and finish with the exception of Kobe. And even Kobe drives less than he did before. Contrast the Lakers with Denver. Anthony, Billups, Lawson, and even Smith will aggressively drive to the hole and look for contact. When the Lakers drive, they seem to shy away from contact (other than Kobe – and Fish but then he never gets any calls). The Lakers were poor last year too, ranking 21st in the league. However, this year’s disparity with the highest foul-drawing teams is ridiculous. The difference of the FT/FGA rate of the best team (Denver at .29) to LA was .06  (.29 -.23) in 08/09. This means that last year, for every 100 FGA, Denver shot 6 more free throws than the Lakers. A significant disparity but not overly so. This year that difference is .144 (.329 – .185). That means that for 100FGA, Denver (yes it is Denver again) shoots 14.4 more free throws than the Lakers. This difference is outrageous and I think explains more than any other of the reasons above why the offensive efficiency is so low.

*I could write an entire post detailing how good Artest has been on defense but anyone who watched him shut down Joe Johnson and Kevin Durant can’t wonder whether the Artest/Ariza trade was an upgrade or not – at least on defense. On offense he is finishing 50% at the rim which is a worry but not surprising and has not been a over-dribbling ball-hog at all this year as many feared.

“The 6’8″ Jackson’s wingspan was so prodigious that Bill Fitch (Jackson’s coach at the University of North Dakota) would often have him show off to NBA scouts with something called “The Car Trick,” in which Jackson would sit in middle of the back seat of a 1950s Buick and open both doors simultaneously.”

-Phil Jackson’s official Bio

Length… Sometimes referred to as a player’s wingspan or simply stating, “he’s long.” The famous poster of Jordan’s life size image with reaching “wings” while palming a ball comes to mind.

It’s the distance from the tip of the right middle finger, across and over the barrel of the chest, to the tip of the digits on the left.

Like Leonardo’s Vitruvian Man, most of us are square, symmetrical. Our wings comparatively clipped and matching the distance from the bottom of our feet to the top of our head. Embodying the architect Vitruvius’ idea that we were a walking 1 to 1 ratio.

“We found the proportion of Height to Wingspan to be 1.023 which is within 2.3% error of the established value of 1. The one-sample T-test concluded that there is not enough evidence to say the proportion is not 1.”

-Size of a Human: Body Proportions, The Physics Hypertext book

In his own lanky form, it seems Jackson would start to create a prototype of a defensive player. Of course coaches have always coveted length in players, but for Phil and consequently the Lakers, it now seems firmly ensconced as an organizational philosophy.

A philosophy that would begin with Phil himself and solidify in the 7 foot long outstretched arms of Scottie Pippen. The Bulls’ defense would be predicated on his quickness coupled with length.

The commitment to fielding a front court founded on length would be undeniable after the 2004 Finals, when one Kobe Bryant was single covered by Pterodactylean ridiculousness.

“Kobe had a hard time shooting over Prince,” Lakers Coach Phil Jackson said afterward. “I’ve never played against somebody that long before,” Bryant said.

Felix Gillette, Slate magazine, discussing the 2004 Finals and praising of the “lanky brilliance” of Tayshaun Prince.

(Gilette would also invoke Leonardo and Vitruvius and quote a study in the Journal Biometrika,“Only 9 percent of adult males have wingspans that exceed their heights by more than about 2 inches.”)

So when we see… Good close outs on three point shooters…rebounds kept alive by tips leading to second chance points…passing lanes being filled properly in the strong side zone preventing the skip pass…fronting the post effectively…altered or blocked shots…fundamental stay on the floor go straight up defense…say it along with Joel Myers…“The Lakers length is once again a factor .”

“The team is neither soft, nor scared of physicality, it’s just a little light in the pants. This is why our speed and length will be so important. What we lack in girth (not physicality) will be made up in speed and length, allowing us to choke off angles and get into passing lanes.”

Kwame a.

“The ball is just calling my name…I just go after it.”

Trevor Ariza

“He’s a legitimate, 7-1, long-wing-span, natural shot blocker, so add Andrew, it takes us to another level defensively.”

Phil Jackson on the Pau Gasol trade

You can’t teach length, but you can draft and trade for it.

-Scott Thompson aka Gatinho

Lakerology

Gatinho —  September 12, 2008

In these days where the lobe of our brain that is all things Lakers is like a forlorn castaway on a desert island longing for a sip of fresh water, we can look back on some vids and articles that can fill in the time and simultaneously slake and whet our thirst for even a simple pre-season tilt

Hit the links and enjoy some Lakerology

Speaking of pre-season, this may be one of the more interesting in recent memory. The Return, The Prelude, starring Young Andrew Bynum

What are the effects of a Phil Jackson training camp on Pau Gasol?

Phil Jackson explains the Triangle… “In His Own Words”:

“If your holding the ball longer than 2 seconds, your holding up your team…” Phil Jackson breaks down the offense for the fans.

Tex explains what to do if the defense is sagging in the post, aka the “Two Pass” or “Pinch Post”… where we should see Pau and Kobe a lot this season…

“The Moment of Truth” in the offense… when a players gets within 3 feet of his defender, the rest of the offense needs to move. This is something the regular fan actually can look for in a game. If Kobe’s jab stepping at the top of the key and there are no cutters…there should be a “pressure release” aka “The Blind Pig”…

Creating a triangle in a way that is inconspicuous to the defense… and another triangle axiom, “The player with the ball hits the first open man. It is an offense predicated on player and ball movement with a purpose

“The first principle is penetration.” Another point the layman can look for…How fast do they get into the triangle?… and they are not called “plays”, they are called “a series of options”. And why don’t the coaches huddle with the players at the beginning of time outs?

Jordan Farmar:

A Peace Player, in Israel making a change in the world with a hoop, a ball, and some Woodenesque ideas on teamwork…

…and if you don’t know who the Fanhouse’s Elie Seckback is… you should check him out

From the SI.com vault… where they have archived and allowed access to some of the greatest sports writing and sports writers…

The young, exciting, and surging 1995 Lakers…

What did the Lakers know that nobody else did?…That 6’6″ rookie guard Eddie Jones , out of Temple , the NBA ‘s 10th draft choice overall, would outplay other lottery picks with contracts $50 million richer than his six-year, $13.5 million deal? That Cedric Ceballos , a career backup with the Phoenix Suns , would make the Laker faithful forget recently retired James Worthy? That point guard Nick Van Exel would help them forget Magic Johnson? That through Sunday they would be 21-11, on a 54-victory pace and in third place in the rugged Pacific Division?

Kermit Washington’s infamous punch…

For all his reputation as one of …the strongest, most dangerous customers in the game, off the court Washington is a gentle, sensitive, family man who is popular with both teammates and opponents…

The Immortal Chick Hearn…

…From high above the western sideline of the Los Angeles Forum, the world’s most beautiful sports theater, hello again, everybody, this is Chick Hearn.”

The voice was steady and sure of itself, and it caught the ear. The voice was made for radio, painting pictures in the dark. “Wow, what a tempo! Magic back and forth like a windshield wiper with the dribble drive, he throws up a prayer…air ball. Rebound left side taken by McAdoo, he goes right back up—a frozen rope that time, no arch, but it melted right in the hole…

The announcement that caused the Lakers to trade Vlade Divac to the Charlotte Hornets for the 13th pick in the draft…

…Bryant , a 6’6″ shuffler—except on a basketball court, where he moves like lightning—ambled up to the podium in a vent-less sport coat and fine dress trousers bought at the last minute and in need of a tailor, his sunglasses positioned on the top of his shiny shaved head. His coat had puffy shoulders, masking his frame, which at 190 pounds is as skinny and malleable as a strand of cooked spaghetti. He leaned his goofy kid’s mouth toward the microphone, mockingly brought his fingers to his unblemished chin as if he were still pondering his decision, and delivered the news that insiders had been expecting for a week.

“I’ve decided to skip college and take my talent to the NBA ,” Bryant said.

And finally…

…for what it’s worth. I don’t get out to many shows these days. But Beck in Reno was the highlight of my summer

-Gatinho

The Dark Lord

Gatinho —  June 9, 2008

Previously unheralded outside of hardcore hoops circles, Tom Thibodeau is now being feted as a defensive genius and the architect behind the resurgence of the Boston Celtics. As Karl Rove was to GWB, TT is to Doc Rivers. How else do you explain it? A bottom rung defensive team, populated with defensive sieves like Paul Pierce, supplemented by the likes of Ray Allen transformed into the basketball equivalent of the Steel Curtain. Sure KG had been a fine defensive player and Posey certainly helps. But it takes talent, tactics, and time to become a great defensive team. How can any coach take a brand new group of guys and implement a defensive system in one training camp that is more effective than the vaunted Spurs defense who’ve played together for years?

You have to cheat.

Michael Johnson had supreme talent, and dedicated a decade of hard work to become the best sprinter of our age. In a few short years Trevor Graham juiced up an undersized sprinter in Tim Mongomery, deficient in raw talent, into a world record holder. Much like Trevor Graham, Thibodeau weighed his options. “I don’t have years to turn this team into a defensive juggernaut, their window is too short. I need a short-cut”.

But of course in Thibodeau’s case, he didn’t really cheat. He gamed the system. We’ve been there before. A new tax code comes out. It is clear what the spirit of the code is, the intent. Still, only a fool doesn’t try to find the inevitable loophole to defeat the law’s intentions. Tom Thibodeau is no fool.

Imagine, as the statistician-turned GM Daryl Morey has done, that you digitized every possession of every game. Tagged every sequence and ran it through a massively parallel computing environment. You could search for the most effective plays versus certain defensive schemes, the most efficient player combinations, or other helpful metrics. But this would still require long-term, painful work to improve personnel incrementally. You need a faster solution.

What if you could run the following query through Morey’s machine – as Thibodeau had ample opportunity to do while at Houston. Which fouls are optimum? In other words, which fouls are the refs most likely to call and which fouls are they least likely to call. Even more subtle, which actions that are not really fouls draw fouls and which actions that are really fouls not draw foul calls?

Can such a query be performed on Morey’s server farm? Undoubtedly. What would the results be and would a team trained on fouling without being called have an advantage on defense?

The results might show that statistically speaking the refs tend to call fouls (whether actual contact was made or not) where a defensive player makes an obvious swipe at the ball. Our hunter/carnivore past has blessed humans with a cerebral motor control areas and an occipital lobe designed to focus on motion – much like cats. A wide swipe at the ball whether for steals or blocks (read, Ronny) draws attention and fouls – contact or not. Thus the Celtics rarely swipe at the ball. What they do is grab arms, wrists, jerseys with the minimum of motion – much like a master jujitsu artist. Kobe gets by Pierce on his way to the hoop. Pierce doesn’t swipe, he grabs Kobe’s right wrist. That Kobe twists in air and shoots and scores with his Left hand is a testament to Kobe. That Pierce almost stopped Kobe’s score and didn’t pick up a foul is a testament to Thibodeau.

Contact with the hands, however incidental on a player with the ball draws a foul. Swiveling your hip into the player to throw off him off stride rarely gets called. In fact, on the play, you can clearly see Paul Pierce swiveling his haps ala Shakira into Kobe’s torso as Kobe rises for the running jumper. Maybe Karma rewarded this display by depositing Perkin’s heft onto the back of Pierce’s knee. The Celtics don’t hand check. They hip check.

Morely’s computers might show that off-the ball moving screens are rarely called. In fact, if Ray Allen and Pierce are running around screens. Don’t just set a stationary screen. Like a pulling guard, jut hips, elbows, and shoulders to pick off the defender. If you lay him out great. If he has to fight extra hard or take a more circumnavigatory route, acceptable. Now on this play every once in awhile you’ll be called for a foul. Do it every single play and the percentage of calls drops to a basis point.

These are only the obvious differences between the Celtic’s defensive tactics than others. Undoubtedly Master Thibodeau is employing many more subtle tricks. Of course, while not being illegal (going by the dictum that if the refs don’t call it, it is not a foul – unless Derek Fisher is landing on Brent Barry) this gaming of the system is insidious and ugly. San Antonio actually played great defense against Kobe without fouling him. What if you could play great defense AND foul him without being called. Wouldn’t the Spurs have won a few more games then?

Maybe it is the sign of the times. Belicheck coaches the best football team of the decade but still feels the need to cheat. Yeah, you can play great zone defense (disguised but still zone) with great late help. But isn’t it nice to be able to hip check or hold if all else fails?

Phil Jackson alluded to this in his post game press conference. The Celtics defense is “illusory”. A foul doesn’t appear like a foul and isn’t called one. Just because you didn’t see the ninja doesn’t mean a dagger isn’t in your belly.

So where do you go from here? The NBA is full of copy cats. In the zenith of 7 Seconds or Less, a dozen teams were busy remaking their teams to emulate the Suns. If the Celtics win the title, how many teams will study the tape and incorporate the off-the ball moving screen, the wrist hold, and the hip check into their defensive repertoire?

Much like the success of the Detroit Bad Boys heralded an era of ugly, brutal defensive ball – exemplified by Riley’s Knicks, Thibodeau’s success might lead the league, unexpectedly, into an period of low percentage shooting. The hope is that the server farm is a force for good and light as it has been a force of darkness, that the league office will notice the blatant subterfuge and instruct the officials with video tutorials for next season. A little too late for the Lakers this season. They just have to be twice as good.

-Bill Bridges

I must apologize in advance for this post. Normally, Forum Blue And Gold is a great source of basketball analysis. Today you shall have none. The few posts I have written here tend to have a lot of statistics. Today my spreadsheet is empty. No, with the playoffs only seven games away I have found my mind drifting to the psychological. Or to put it bluntly: the mind games.

“You, my friend, are a victim of disorganized thinking. You are under the unfortunate impression that just because you run away you have no courage; you’re confusing courage with wisdom. ” -The Wizard of Oz

Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza have not arrived back on court. They have gone beyond the initial diagnosis time line. A lot of fans assume either: A. the injuries were more severe than the Lakers initially let on or B. Gary Vitti doesn’t have the same magic pixie dust they have in Detroit. One of those scenarios is fairly plausible, but those are not the only options. It is possible the Lakers have held back Andrew and Trevor after they fully recovered. There are two very good reasons to do this. Once the Gasol trade happens and clicks, the need to rush Andrew and Trevor back to make the playoffs recedes. This sets the stage for the first very good reason to sit on their return: Bynum’s the franchise when Kobe retires. While his knee subluxation seemed like bad luck, in a way it was very, very good luck. Just ask any Clippers fan. Dr. Buss was not going to risk bringing Andrew back too soon. Remember, he wanted Kobe to have finger surgery (or did he?) which would have most likely killed the Lakers’ playoff chances for this season. Trevor could be around for awhile too; so why damage two players in your potential post-Kobe nucleus?

Of course, this doesn’t really explain why you’d keep them out this freaking long. And I did promise you two very good reasons.

“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable…” -Sun Tzu

Humor me and count the number of times you’ve read an article about a treadmill before this season. Please, take your time. (No, that piece in Men’s Health doesn’t count.) Now count how many times you’ve heard about that miracle/monster/timemachine/torturedevice. Sure, some of that is PR for the fan base. “Look, we’ve bought a treadmill that’s worth three years of the average fan’s salary! We mean business!” But come on. It’s almost like some coach with a reputation for Mind Games was writing a movie for Gene Hackman to star in: Bynum’s so messed up only anti-gravity can save him! Trevor’s still in a humidity controlled boot! Kobe’s finger is going to fall off!

So yes, the second very good reason to hold them back is to play opossum. Though not necessarily in the strictest sense of the term. If those cats have been good to go for awhile, I’m sure the other NBA teams know. But the one thing nobody knows, which coincidentally has Lakers fans tied up in knots, is how will Bynum and Gasol play together. This is the key. Not a single team has faced that Lakers squad. No one knows what that looks like. That is what they call the element of surprise.

“It was all very well to say ‘Drink me,’ but the wise little Alice was not going to do that in a hurry: ‘no, I’ll, look first,’ she said, ‘and see whether it’s marked ‘poison’ or not…” -Lewis Carroll

But that makes no sense. Even the Lakers don’t know what will happen with Andrew and Pau on the floor. That’s just playing Russian roulette. The thing is, the Lakers do have a good idea of what those two will do together. First, Andrew knows the triangle. He passes well within the system, blocks shots and can put the ball in the basket from the post. Second, Pau has had a crash course in the triangle from the center position. He has been at the end of the line of deployment, getting dished to. Now, all he will have to do is think from the other end of the line of deployment he’s been playing on. (The line of deployment runs from the center to the forward on the wing.) In a way, having Pau start the triangle from the center then move to forward has probably quickened his learning curve. It has given him time to absorb the motion while still contributing to the team in a meaningful way. There is no reason to think that, at this point, Pau and Bynum can’t click on first team like Pau did with the rest of the team. If that happens you’re talking about a massive win streak until teams can figure out the weakness. And if you can see that possibility and could choose the timing of it…well, who wants to be the NBA version of the Colorado Rockies?

“East, West, just points of the compass, each as stupid as the other.” -Dr. No

Which brings me to the diabolical genius that is Biz Markie Phil Jackson. My entire line of thinking may be delusional, probably is. But at the very least Phil has taken actual uncertainty about the team’s health and played with it in the press. Given Phil’s history this creates doubt in the opposing team’s minds. “Maybe he is up to something?” He has taken a perceived weakness and used it as a weapon. Not many coaches bother to even try doing stuff like that.

This whole post is so speculative, I almost didn’t put it up. I fully realize it’s the pop psychology version of the trade machine.

But I’ve got this feeling we should pay attention to that man behind the curtain, because in this version of the story, I think his hot air balloon can take all of us home.

-Rob L.