Archives For Draft

The 2012 Draft Expresso

Dave Murphy —  June 27, 2012

Instead of the usual Wednesday Storylines, presented for your reading pleasure is the Forum Blue and Gold “draft preview” by Dave & Emile plus the staff’s lucky longshots: Shout out to Draft Express by the way. There’s a lot of data and draft sites out there but Jonathan Givony goes way above and beyond. He’s on it all year long.

Dave Murphy - By a confluence of events including overall record, trade-aways, give-aways, and sheer dumb luck, the Los Angeles Lakers possess the worst possible draft scenario in the entire league. One pick only and it’s #60 – butting right up against nothing. The Lakers are trying to improve their lot of course, but at this point we don’t know if they’ll find any givers or takers and we probably won’t know until either Stern or Silver steps up to the mic.

That said, we thought we’d toss some names against the wall. The last slot’s pretty much a crap shoot – it’s most definitively getting somebody that nobody else wanted. Still, Isaiah Thomas fell to #60 last year and there’s always the story of Manu Ginobili who was taken at #58. And of course, Jeremy Linn, who wasn’t drafted at all. So, never say never. We’re due for a miracle.

Emile Avanessian – Not gonna lie, at first blush, the idea of handicapping the final pick in the NBA draft struck me as slightly nuts. That is, however, until one remembers that last June’s second best player slotted in at #60. That same evening, the Lakers cashed in four second-rounders of their own, with Darius Morris (hope springs eternal, but man…), Andrew Goudelock (presumably deported in March – wait, he was still there?), Chukwudiebere Maduabum (take it away, Dave), and Ater Majok (I got nothin’).

It’s hardly reasonable to look ahead to a draft in which a team is not slated to belly up to the bar before last call with legitimate expectations. More reasonable, however, is the assertion that at least one player – and probably two or three – whose name is not among the first fifty called on Thursday night will not only succeed in earning a place on an NBA roster, but will carve out a career as a professional rotation player.

Why not us? Let the brilliance begin.

Dave – my first inclination is to look for backcourt help, somebody who is rabidly dedicated to at least one thing – passing, shooting, or defending. It’s either that or pick someone who’s halfway competent across the board which will mean a seat on the bench or a ticket out of town. Tu Holloway seems to be a guy that everyone’s keying on as being right on the bubble. Atlantic-10 player of the year for Xavier last season, barely six feet, led the conference in assists.

Somewhere up the ladder is Scott Machado, a four-year point guard from Iona College who led the nation in assists at 9.9. Again, on the small side and I can’t image he’ll be available when it comes our turn. Certainly a possibility if we can leapfrog up about 15 slots or so. Machado was a finalist for the Cousy Award and the Wooden Award his senior year, and was named MAAC (Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference) Player of the year. He’s got good three-point range and has worked out for a lot of teams, including the Knicks, Celtics, 76ers, Nets, and Spurs.

I’m intrigued by Tomas Satoransky from the Cech Republic. He’s still only 21 and has been playing in Spain for the past few years, most recently with Banco Civica Sevilla. He’s a 6’7” combo guard and has been described as one of the best euro prospects in this year’s draft. Video shows that he has great passing skills. He’s skinny at about 200 lbs, and doesn’t have consistent shot mechanics. Tomas has been making the rounds for workouts, was in L.A. very recently and then was headed back to Spain where there’s an offer on the table from Turismo de Merida. Hus plan was to come back for more workouts and the draft – he’s projected around the middle of the second round.

I’ve been living in Austin the past few years and J’Covan Brown is well-known around here as a member of the UT Longhorns (hook ‘em horns!). He’s a pick and roll combo guard, 6’3”, played mostly off-ball in college but doesn’t have the size for that in the NBA. Mostly a pull-up jump shooter, fairly decent from beyond the arc but gets a bit wild sometimes. Definitely likes to score the ball, passes well off the dribble-drive. A lot of the boards have him right around the upper 50’s.

Given the latest Mo Williams rumors, I should probably back up my guard selections with a few bigs. Leon Radosevic, 6’10”, playing PF/C for Milano by way of Croatia, has some nice paint moves but isn’t particularly strong. Dusan Cantekin, a Serbian who’s playing for Mega Vizura, is extremely tall, 7’4” and 245, and mobile, with a nice shooting touch. He doesn’t appear to have any backdown moves whatsoever though. Getting away from the euro bigs, Miles Plumlee out of Duke could easily be available at the tail end of the draft. Good size at 7’0” and 247 lbs, has a knack for offensive boards and putbacks and probably wouldn’t be a huge gamble. He’s my sleeper pick.

Emile - This feels like a pretty good time to point out that when it comes to the draft, I am far more “ideas man” than “problem solver.” Like any consultant worth his salt, vague solutions to difficult problems with little in the way of personal risk are my stock in trade. So, what the hell, right?

Many will look at the Lakers’ roster and conclude that Jimmy Buss and his mixologist must look to (again) address issues at the point (especially should Ramon Sessions opt to move on this summer) and with size off the bench (ditto for Jordan Hill). And they would be right.

In response, Texas’ J’Covan Brown, a 6’1” combo guard probably best suited to the point at the pro level – is worth a look if he is on the board when the Lakers step to the podium. A bit reliant on the jump shot (per Draft Express, 68% of his shots in 2011-12 were jumpers) despite not being the most accurate shooter (41.5% FG), Brown is by all accounts supremely confident at the offensive end. He stepped up admirably (20.1 points per game, 86.3% FT) for a Longhorn team that had lost Tristan Thompson, Avery Bradley, Jordan Hamilton and Corey Joseph to the last two NBA drafts. He’s got NBA range and is an effective ball-handler in the pick-and-roll. The more I learn about J’Covan Brown, the more visions of Nick Van Exel dance in my head.

Should Brown be off the board as the draft winds down, another possible option for the Lakers is Georgetown big man Henry Sims. Though he is raw offensively and is still learning to rebound, Sims is an intelligent player, has an extremely live body, is an able and willing passer and possesses a 7’4” wingspan. These will qualities will make him an asset at the defensive end of the floor and allow him to quickly carve out a niche for himself coming off the bench.

Should the aforementioned duo no longer be available come pick #60, I will toss my support behind Tomas Satoransky, Furkan Aldemir (Turkey), Leon Radosevic (Italy), Tornike Shengelia (Republic of Georgia) or Josep Franch (Spain). Not because I know anything about any of these guys or their games, but because I feel like it’d be fun to be “stash a guy overseas.” Y’know, all slick, Bufordy.

As much as I hate the idea of surrendering even more assets (remember the first round pick it cost to land Sessions) to maybe address the point guard situation, if the persistent (though unsubstantiated and wildly speculative) rumors of the Lakers moving into the first round prove accurate, I would love to see either UNC’s Kendall Marshall or Kentucky freshman Marquis Teague draped in purple and gold.

In their absence, Michigan State senior Draymond Green. At 6’7’”-235, Green has an NBA-ready body to go with his solid ball-handling skills and high basketball IQ. This dude can score (16.2 per game on 44.9% FG), board (10.6 per game), pass (3.8 assists per) and shoot from distance (38.8% on 3-pointers). The greatest flaw in his all-around skill set is the lack of a single, elite skill.

On a related note, my greatest fear heading into the draft is that the Lakers will in fact trade into the first round to draft Perry Jones, III. Not that he wouldn’t be the perfect modern day Laker – talent to spare but iffy on the effort.

Rounding the clubhouse turn, we’ve got our crack staff handicappers’ picks.

Darius’s Double-Down Doozy: Darius Johnson-Odom (with a name like that, how could he fail?) 6’3” SG, Marquette.

Phillip’s Lucky Lefty Long Range pick: Hollis Thompson, 6’8” SG, Georgetown (because my nickname is Lefty and this guy can really shoot).

JM’s Just Money (trademarked) Longshot Bet: Alex Young. 6’6” SG, IUPUI. Boom!

RR’s Railbird Special: Kostas Papanikolaou (because he has a long name – remember last year’s Chukwaiarjeaijiaiaj teaitjaeiot io jaji?!) 6’9” SF, Olympiacos, Greece.

Jeffrey’s Stop Watcher: Mike Scott, 6’9” PF, Virginia (good motor, rebounds hard, plays D – sounds like Josh Powell 2.0 to me).

Emile’s Trade-Up Trifecta: Draymond Green (sans the one elite skill) 6’7”, PF, Michigan State.

Dave’s Daily Dime: Tomas Satoransky (because he reminds me of Kiovanic Atomik), 6’7”, PG/SG Sevilla, Spain.

Now it’s your turn. The FB&G commenters have been bringing it home all season and we appreciate you! Tell us who and why you’d draft – for talent, for position, or for any particular skill. And more than anything, give us names!

 

Friday Forum

Dave Murphy —  June 8, 2012

Basketball continues along its duel tracks, with the playoffs marching toward the final round and the rest of the teams proceeding into their seasons of change. It’s as evident here as anywhere. With Kobe heading toward his 17th season, management can ill afford to tinker and wait. Darius recently wrote about team building and the need for youth. The playoffs have been a fascinating mix of young and old, and the clock stops for no one. Here’s some links, and food for thought:

Brian Kamenetzky at the Land O’Lakers, compares the team’s needs this season, to their needs last season, and finds a lot of similarities.

Ben Bolch at the L.A. Times writes about Derek Fisher, hoping for another ring.

Kurt Helin at ProBasketballTalk reports that Kobe will revisit Germany this summer for more therapy on his knee. Andrew Bynum may have the same experimental procedure.

Mike Trudell at Lakers Reporter goes into a little more depth about training matters, during an interview with Gary Vitti.

R.R. Magellan at The No-Look Pass examines how the Oklahoma City Thunder got to where they did.

C.A. Clark at Silver Screen and Roll also looks at OKC, and the clearest paradigm shift in NBA history.

Right before last night’s Eastern Conference Game 6, Emile Avanessian, at Hardwood Hype issued a challenge to LeBron. LBJ was clearly listening.

I enjoyed a cyber dinner with Emile the night before, and we discussed the conference finals, plus matters more centric to the Lakers.

Most of the recent talk of a possible Lamar return to the Lakers, has been tempered by the new one-year moratorium rule. David Lord & Mike Fisher from Dallasbasketball.com, have a possible way around that.

Elizabeth Benson at Lakers Nation, examines the need to get younger and faster.

In the wake of last night’s remarkable LeBron performance, a ton of writers sallied forth to opine. Jared Dublin at Hardwood Paroxysm,  gives us a table of contents.

***

This year’s strike-shortened season was more than a little strange. The playoffs however, have been engaging, highly competitive, and fully entertaining. This summer will not be like last summer. The gym doors won’t be locked. Coaches won’t be prohibited from talking to their players. The new draft picks won’t be sitting, wondering, and waiting. The summer league and full training camps will be back in force. And between now and then, there will be a lot to talk about. As the Chambers brothers famously sang, “time has come today.”

– Dave Murphy

Even though it’s standard operating procedure for nearly every national site, I’ve never been a fan of grading drafts right after they occur. While it’s nice to think we know how a player’s college game will translate to the pros, there are too many factors and variable to be able to truly determine what type of pro these kids will be.  Will injuries strike? Will the player improve on weaknesses? Will a teams’ system match what a player does well? Answers to these questions (and many more) can shape a career just as much as how often their jumper falls or how well they play defense.

However, if you go around the web, there’s also a different take on grading the draft; a take where the writer is asking “who won and who lost in this draft”? And while the answers to most of these questions are big name players or franchises that made especially questionable (or great) decisions on their draft picks, there’s also another type of “loser” that is consistently showing up on these lists.

Namely, the college player that left early that should have stayed in school.

And if you dig around the web a little, you’ll find that the Lakers’ selection at pick #41, Darius Morris, is one of the players appearing as a loser in this draft.

From Andy Katz at TrueHoop:

Darius Morris could have led Michigan toward a possible Big Ten title. Now he’ll have a hard time sticking with the Lakers.

Meanwhile, over at Yahoo!, Marc Spears includes Morris on his list of players that left school too early hoping for a first round selection, only to slip to the 2nd round where contracts aren’t guaranteed.

What no one is saying, however, is that Morris isn’t talented.

Furthermore, from my line of thinking, these critiques only further my belief that the Lakers potentially stole a real talent in this draft with the 41st pick. I mean, if many thought another year in college would have boosted Morris’ draft stock to the point that he would have landed in the 1st round next year (in what’s considered a much stronger draft by every expert), then I’m more than happy that the Lakers acquired such a talent when and where they did this year.

Obviously, there are no guarantees that Morris will develop. And Katz’ may prove to be right in his assessment that Morris doesn’t stick with the Lakers. However, the talent base is there and by all accounts so is the work ethic. If he progresses as naturally with the Lakers as he would have with the Wolverines, the Lakers may have found a keeper. And if that turns out to be the case, no one will be talking about how Morris was a loser in this draft but rather how the Lakers were winners.

And now, for your viewing pleasure, some of the skills that surely prompted the Lakers to draft Morris in the first place. Enjoy.

Draft Day Thoughts

Darius Soriano —  June 24, 2011

Coming into the draft, armed with four 2nd round picks, the Lakers had a clear strategy. They wanted to draft guards that could help their back court depth and they wanted to draft one or two players that could be stashed in Europe for future consideration of a roster spot. Plus, besides those two rather generic goals, the Lakers also sought to improve on and add skills lacking on the current roster. The hope was to nab playmaking and shooting and hope those skills were advanced enough that the player (or players) possessing them could earn a roster spot.

And while it’s much too early to say whether that last point will actually prove positive, the other goals all have a check mark next to them the day after the draft. And for those reasons, beyond anything else, the Lakers had a successful Thursday evening phoning in their picks from Los Angeles to Newark.

With pick number 41, the Lakers nabbed Darius Morris from Michigan. His strengths include size, natural point guard ability, and the ability to get into the paint to create for others and himself. His profile at Draft Express includes several positive morsels about his college career, including the fact that he boasted a greater than 2-1 assist to turnover ratio while also shooting 53% on two point baskets last season. We also learn that he improved by leaps and bounds over his two seasons at Michigan by flashing a well rounded game, including the ability to rebound well and defend at an above average level. Draft Express ranked him as the 22nd best prospect in this draft and Chad Ford states that he may be the best pure point guard in his draft. 

However, his game is not without flaws. He’s shown literally no ability to make the college three point shot, knocking down only 25% of his long balls last year. He can be an over dribbler that probes too much rather than making the simple play.  His size is very good for the position but his athleticism is only average. He’ll be tested at the NBA level both physically and in terms of the deficiencies in his game, needing to make both improvements and adjustments to his style of play that will be harder than the ones he had to make during his time at Michigan.

With the 46th pick, the Lakers selected Andrew Goudelock from the College of Charleston. He’s also listed as a point guard, but where Morris is of the playmaking variety, Goudelock is a scoring machine. He ranked 5th in the nation this past year, dropping nearly 24 points a game (right below Kemba Walker). He’s used to operating with the ball in his hands and creating shots from everywhere on the floor. He shows incredible range on his jumper and is literally a threat to hit shots once he’s over the half court line. Really, he is. He also shows great moxie on the court and is a confident player, letting media know after the draft that he’ll compete with anyone of any size and that his shooting ability will be with him until the day he dies.

Goudelock too, though, has his flaws. While confident in his playmaking ability, he committed nearly as many turnovers as assists this past season. Finishing inside is not a strong suit. And while he made 40% of his three pointers (a great number) he also shot nearly 9 shots from distance a game last year, which instantly has me questioning his shot selection. There’s a real question about whether he can be a true point guard or if he’s destined to be an undersized shooting guard in this league.

With the remaining two picks, the Lakers selected Chukwudiebere Maduabum (#56) and Ater Majok (#58). Chu-Chu (as he’s known) was ultimately traded to the Nuggets for a future 2nd round pick and Majok is a player that has little information on him anywhere. After the pick, Chad Ford tweeted that “He wasn’t awful at EuroCamp.” And that he “Shoots it OK for a big man”, but I wouldn’t call that a ringing endorsement on my friendliest and most optimistic of days. Odds are this pick never sees the floor for the Lakers.

In the end though, with both Morris and Goudelock at least, these are the types of players you draft in the 40’s. They’re flawed players but ones that have good skill level and a foundational attribute (or more) that can keep them in this league. For Morris, that’s a combo of playmaking, size, and floor generalship. For Goudelock it’s shooting and confidence. Considering the Lakers have a real need for both of those skill sets on this current roster, I think the team did quite well for themselves in acquiring these two players. We won’t know until training camp what type of progress or improvements they’ve made in their games (Summer league has been officially cancelled and with a lock out on the horizon, who knows when camp will even start) but I do believe that both of these players can stick and make the team.

And if that turns out to be the case, that’s a great result from this draft and all any reasonable observer could ask for. There’s little chance a pick in the 40’s will come in and impact a team. Those chances go down exponentially when you’re talking about a team that many believe to be one of the handful of title contenders in the league. If the Lakers are lucky, both Morris and Goudelock will come in, compete hard, improve as the year progresses, and get some spot minutes where they can test their development in real game action. If they contribute positively in those minutes and earn more time, that’s a homerun. If they don’t, I’m not judging. I look at Ebanks and Caracter and see two guys that rarely played and I still think they can be players on this team.

Hopefully, with both Morris and Goudelock, I’ll be thinking the same thing a year from now.

Update: With the 41st pick the Lakers selected Darius Morris, point guard from Michigan. From everything I know of him, his best attribute is his size (he’s 6’5″) and the fact that he offers true PG skills. His jumper is relatively weak, but he’s good in the P&R and off the bounce getting into the lane. We’ll have more on this pick later, but as of now I’m pretty happy with this pick. The Lakers could use some youth in their pipeline of back court players and Morris provides that (he came out after his sophomore season at Michigan).

Update #2: With the 46th pick the Lakers selected Andrew Goudelock, point guard from the College of Charleston. Chad Ford calls him the 2nd best shooter in the draft behind Jimmer Fredette and that he boasts tremendous range. Overall, I’m pleased that the Lakers nabbed a good shooter with this pick as that’s a portable skill that can immediately help this team.

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We’re inching closer to the start of the draft and that excitement is starting to build up in me. Even though the Lakers don’t pick until the 2nd round, I’ll be dialed in to all the action.

Since our post this morning, some revalations have come to light:

  • Reports are that the Odom/Iguodala deal is essentially dead. Which, honestly, is no surprise. The Lakers typically run a tight ship with word of potential deals rarely getting out. That’s not to say this is always the case, but it’s so rare that the details of any Laker deal gets out that it’s tough to put too much stock into reports that actually see the light of day that don’t include the words “confirmed” or “nearly done”. That said, if you’d like some spot on analysis of the Lakers, Odom, and trades, you should go read this.
  • Just because the Lakers aren’t trading, it doesn’t mean no deals are getting done. It’s been widely reported that the Bobcats, Kings, and Bucks have agreed to a three way trade. Details state that Beno Udrih, Stephen Jackson, Shawn Livingston, and the #19 pick go to Milwaukee, Corey Maggette and the #7 pick go to Charlotte, while John Salmons and the #10 pick go to Sacramento. My first impressions are that the ‘Cats win this trade by getting a 2nd lottery pick (they’re already picking 9th) with the Bucks also doing well. Meanwhile, Sacramento fans should be pulling their hair out. As the great Tom Ziller (SB Nation, Sactown Royalty) noted “Kings got older, worse, more expensive AND downgraded their draft pick in one trade. Impressive.”
  • Reports have also started to surface linking Brian Shaw to the Pacers. Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star tweeted that Shaw will join the Pacers as their Associate Head Coach (otherwise known as the top assistant). Good for Shaw as I wish him nothing but the best. He was a very good coach for the Lakers and I’ll never forget the big shots he hit for the team during the Shaq/Kobe era (hello Portland!). I’m very happy that he’s landed on his feet and hope that this opportunity will springboard him back into contention for a head coaching job in the coming years.

That’s all the news we have before the draft, but I’m sure there will be plenty more as the night unfolds. We’ll update this post if any Lakers news breaks and surely when they make their picks. Enjoy the night, ya’ll.