Archives For Game Preview

Lakers v. Spurs Game 4: It’s Been A Rough Year

Phillip Barnett —  April 28, 2013

Imagine this: Vegas had a prop bet on the Lakers facing a first round sweep after squeaking into the post season. The Lakers would be playing without 55 percent of their scoring on the season, the starting power forward would be playing with a torn ligament and the starting off guard would be the D-League MVP. This team, which would have a starting five that has played a grand total of two minutes together all season, would have to try to slow down the San Antonio Spurs with a three-man core that has been playing together for almost a decade. How much would you have put down on the odds of this scenario happening?

As I write these words, the Boston Celtics are holding a 12-point lead, and seem to be holding off a 1st round season sweep of their own against the New York Knicks. After three games, it didn’t seem like the Celtics had a glimmer of hope of winning a game this series, yet J.R. Smith was suspended for a game and Carmelo Anthony just hasn’t been able to find a rhythm. I’m sitting here trying to convince myself that this Lakers team — as depleted as they are — can find a way to be competitive in this Game 4 at Staples Center in front of their fans. Unfortunately, that seems as unlikely as the scenario mentioned above.

There were such high hopes and expectations coming into this season. Mitch Kupchak put together one of the most incredible rosters we had ever seen on paper. He did the impossible by bringing in Steve Nash. Then did the even more impossible by trading away a center who would not log a single minute in 2013 for this generations best. Even the minor move for Jodie Meeks was a great signing… on paper.

Problems would ensue, however.

The Lakers failed to win a preseason game. Red flags were ignored. Steve Nash broke his leg. Mike Brown was fired. Phil Jackson was (allegedly) snubbed from the coaching position. Mike D’Antoni was hired. The Lakers lost a whole lot more games than they won, and in the midst of losing (and the probably cause for a lot of those losses) more core guys missed time due to injuries. Pau had knee problems. Jordan Hill had back spasms, Chris Duhon did as well. After the spasms, Hill tore his labrum. Pau had a concussion. Dwight had a partially torn labrum. Steve Blake had a stomach thing. Pau then had Plantar fascists. Kobe sprained his ankle. Ron tore his meniscus. Nash pulled his hammy. Kobe ruptured his Achilles and then the season was over.

There were 14 injuries during the regular season with a total of 175 games missed from everyone who went down. As bewildering as the regular season was, the Lakers bad luck continued into the post season with Meeks, Blake, Nash, and Artest all down with an injury going into Game 4 — and Gasol will be playing with a torn ligament in one of his fingers.

How do you preview a game that is notionally a foregone conclusion?

The Lakers will start Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock, Earl Clark, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard in what is likely the last game of the season for a Lakers team that suffered through setback after setback. The Morris-Goudelock backcourt wasn’t as bad as many would have expected in their first stint together as back court mates, but there was a lot left to be desired as the Lakers suffered their largest home playoff defeat in Game 3 after a 31-point loss. While the two combined for 44 points, neither could keep Tony Parker out of the paint, where has lived for the whole series.

Tim Duncan has had a great series, the interior defense of both Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard have been questioned, but they’ve largely been left out to dry by the poor perimeter defenders allowing penetration, freeing up Duncan and other bigs after rotations. The case was most evident in Game 3, once again, with Morris and Goudelock struggling to stay in front of Parker and Co. The Spurs had 30 team assists, and will be looking to move the ball in similar fashion tonight to close out the series.

For the Lakers, a steady diet of Gasol and Howard aren’t going to win it. The Spurs had packed the paint with more fervor as the series has progressed and the consistency of perimeter shooting has decreased. The Lakers have shot just over 25 percent from three in this series (15-for-57) and will need to see the three-ball fall and a much higher rate should the Lakers make this one competitive. There really hasn’t been an opportunity for either Howard or Gasol to get into a real groove with the Spurs having four guys at any given time with one foot in the paint.

On the defensive end, it’s all about keeping Tony Parker on the perimeter and out of the lane where he has been dangerous, creating scoring opportunities for himself and others. The Lakers defenders have worked hard in this series, but the hard work hasn’t exactly been within the realm of the Lakers scheme, which is understandable considering the fact that at least three rotation players have been out in each game this series, and five will be out in the finale.

We can’t go into this one expecting a Lakers win, but we can go into this one expecting this team to work hard on each end of the floor and to go down fighting for one more game. No Lakers team has ever been swept in the first round of the playoffs, and if you’re suiting up tonight, you don’t want to be a part of the cast that is the first to end the season in that fashion. While I would love to see the Lakers come away with a victory in this one (I’ll actually be in attendance tonight), just seeing them going down fighting until the very last possession will be good enough for me.

D’Antoni can only ask these guys to play tough, play smart and to play hard. This season has been a disaster, but what is potentially the last game of the season doesn’t have to be.

In Game Preview
permalink

Game 3 Preview and Chat: The San Antonio Spurs

Darius Soriano —  April 26, 2013

The Lakers are in an onerous position heading into game three. They trail two games to none, losing both games by double figures as the Spurs took control of both games in the 2nd half. Further, their depth is severely compromised. Steve Blake has already been ruled out due to a strained hamstring that leaves him out indefinitely. Jodie Meeks’ MRI revealed a partially torn ligament in his ankle and he remains doubtful to play. Steve Nash is also doubtful with his various lower body ailments.

These players represent the top three guards in the Lakers’ back court rotation. With Kobe already on the shelf, they’re every guard you’d want to be able to rely on to play meaningful minutes at this time of the year. All of them being out spells trouble of the worst kind, especially for a team already having issues generating offense from the perimeter in a way that’s respected by the Spurs.

This game, then, represents the type of challenge that can’t realistically be expected to produce a positive result. This isn’t optimism versus pessimism, it’s simply a matter of health. Take away Parker, Ginobili, Neal, and Joseph against a fully healthy Lakers’ team and I’d venture to say the Spurs’ outlook would be exactly what the Lakers face today.

All that’s left is hope. Hope that Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard can find a bit more efficiency in their games to score well and create good looks for others (especially Pau). Hope that Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock, and Chris Duhon play some of the best ball of their lives. Hope that Earl Clark, Jamison, and Ron hit their open jumpers and find slashing and post opportunities behind a Spurs’ D that is heavily committing to stopping Pau and Dwight. Hope that the Lakers find some home court magic that provides them a level of energy and effectiveness that translates to a winning formula.

Because, without those things, it’s safe to say the Lakers are severely outmatched in this game. We can talk beating the fronting defense of the Spurs via high-post flashes and lobs over the top to Dwight Howard. We can talk shading Parker to the baseline on every single touch to funnel him to where the help is. We can talk trapping Ginobili aggressively to make him a passer rather than a scorer. We can even talk pressuring full court to change the tempo and feel of the game. These are all tactical moves that make sense in a vacuum; moves that can improve the Lakers’ chances if executed well and if the Spurs aren’t fully prepared for them.

But the fact is that unless some of the Lakers’ available players can play above their heads in this game, there’s simply too much a disparity in talent on the floor for the tactical adjustments to really make a huge difference. On many levels that’s discouraging. But it’s also how this series is evolved. Even if Nash and Meeks both play, it was really Blake and Kobe who carried the Lakers’ perimeter offense down the stretch of the season and both those guys will be in suits on the sideline. If Nash and Meeks don’t play (which, at this point, seems most likely), the Lakers will be turning to their fifth, sixth, and seventh guards on the roster and players who would not be in the rotation otherwise. That’s no insult to them, it’s simply what they are.

So, hope for the best tonight folks. If nothing else I expect the Lakers’ to play hard and try their best to get what is a very important game within the context of this series. It’s just that they’re so undermanned it’s difficult to see a realistic path where the outcome is different than what’s expected. Maybe at 10:30 tonight, we can all celebrate the improbable. I sure hope so.

In Game Preview, NBA Playoffs
permalink

Game 2 Preview and Chat: The San Antonio Spurs

Darius Soriano —  April 24, 2013

The Lakers enter game two with some key issues to work out. First is how they can score enough points to hang with the Spurs. That will involve shot making from multiple players and a refinement of how they work the ball into the post. Ball and player movement before an entry pass are key. As will be offering the type of release valves flashing to the middle of the floor to help beat a fronting defense. We’ll see what the Lakers have in store in this regard, but at least they seem to understand where some of their issues lie.

On the injury front, there is some good news to report. Jordan Hill has been cleared to play only 3 months after having hip surgery that was supposed to end his season. How (or if) Hill is integrated into the lineup remains to be seen, but it’s always good to have serviceable depth available to play, even if it’s at a position where many of the minutes are already accounted for. The other good news is that Steve Nash didn’t suffer any setbacks after game one and is slated to start tonight. Nash is still not 100%, but if he can find some of the rhythm he clearly lacked in game one it will be a boost to the Lakers’ offense. Jodie Meeks will also play tonight, though he too is not 100% as of yet. The swelling in his ankle has gone down, however, and that’s good enough for him to give it a go.

For the rest of our preview, we offer a 3 on 3 with myself, Ryan Cole, Rey Moralde and J.M. Poulard. (Yes, I know that’s 4 people. Work with me here.) Let’s get to it…

1. Are you more or less optimistic about the Lakers heading into game 2 than you were heading into game 1? 3on3 truehoopnetwork

J.M. Poulard: Less. Mike D’Antoni got next to nothing from his second unit in Game 1 and barely trusted them to give the Lakers any form of contribution. The Spurs on the other hand got terrific play out of Manu Ginobili and Matt Bonner. The scariest proposition in all this is that Tony Parker struggled a bit and the same holds true for Gary Neal. Playing at home, one has to think they bounce back with good performances.

Rey Moralde: More. The Lakers just seem to continue to go cold from the midrange and the outside. At some point, those shots are going to go in. Pau Gasol usually makes those midrangers. And Dwight will get more touches in the post. I think they’re in for a big evening.

Ryan Cole: Less. The Spurs are seemingly healthier than what we all thought, and I don’t think that they are going to shoot as bad a percentage in this game as they did in the previous one. I’d also expect some adjustments from Coach Popovich, which is a definitely something the Lakers should be concerned about in my opinion.

Darius Soriano: Neither, really. Game one went about as expected with both teams playing well in some areas, not so well in others, and the difference being one of the X-factors stepping up for the Spurs. I still think the Lakers have a shot in this series should they continue to play the type of defense they have over the last few weeks while also finding some efficient scoring from someone not named Dwight Howard or Pau Gasol. These will still be challenges and there will surely be others as the series evolves, but I don’t think the gap between these teams has widened after how both teams played in the first game.

2. Which player has to step up the most to help the Lakers get a win tonight?

J.M.: Metta World Peace. With the bench giving the Lakers next to nothing in Game 1, the onus is on MWP to help out Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol by spacing the floor with his shooting. Even if his shots aren’t falling, he must aggressive and look to put the ball on the floor for drives. A few post ups wouldn’t hurt either.

Rey: Where was Antawn Jamison in the first game? Basically invisible. Jamison is capable of putting up 20 points in a game, even off the bench; I would like to see him put up more shots than just three in a game.
Ryan: Steve Nash. I think Nash’s ability to create for others was not highlighted enough in game 1, so in tonights matchup the Lakers are going to have to feature his play-making ability if they are going to come close to stealing one on the road.

Darius: Steve Nash. The Spurs’ treated Nash as if he was just another guy in game 1, sagging off him in the P&R and in standard post up sets. And while Nash isn’t fully healthy, he has to do more to exploit the Spurs’ approach against him specifically (and the Lakers’ perimeter attack in general). Of all the Lakers’ wing players, Nash is the most skilled and the best shooter. If anyone is going to be able to make them pay for laying off the wings, it will be Nash and his ability to hit shots and/or get into the teeth of the defense and be a threat as a scorer or passer. Whether he has it in him physically to be that guy is questionable, but he’s the player who it needs to come from. 

3. Who wins tonight and why?

J.M.: The Spurs can survive for stretches without optimal production from their big guns. The Lakers cannot. Howard and Gasol were effective in the first game but coughed up the ball 10 times. If the Lakers are going to win, they need huge games from their Hall of Fame big man tandem and good performances from everybody else. The odds of this happening on the road are not impossible but they are quite slim.

Rey: With all that said, I still think the Spurs win this by a hair. At some point, Tony Parker is going to go nuts. Tim Duncan will do better than 6/15. And the Spurs will shoot better than 32 percent from three. We thought the Lakers blew a golden opportunity in the first game? This one will be even more frustrating in my view.
Ryan: Gut feeling has the Lakers losing a close one tonight. I think the Spurs will counter with some adjustments that will make the task of getting a road victory to difficult to overcome for the Lakers. Tony Parker didn’t have a terrific first game so I’d expect a better performance from him en route to leading the Spurs to a win.

Darius: I’ve been higher on the Lakers’ prospects than most analysts out there, so I think the Lakers steal this game. While I expect the Spurs to play better than they did in game one, I expect the same out of the Lakers. I think they take better care of the ball, hit a few more jumpers, and find a few cracks in the defense to get Dwight and Pau a few more cleaner looks than they got in game 1. Add it all up and I think this game is close at the end with the Lakers stealing it to tie the series heading back to Los Angeles.

In 3-on-3, Game Preview
permalink

Game 1 Preview and Chat: The San Antonio Spurs

Darius Soriano —  April 21, 2013

We’ve covered a fair amount of ground in the lead up to game one, from the regular season trends to what to look for on offense and defense to some potential X-factors to look for over the course of the series. The analysis we can provide before the games begin is done, now it’s about what happens on the floor moving forward.

What we know is that Steve Nash will try to influence that as he plans to play in game one. How long Nash can go and how effective he can be are open questions. His presence should aid the team’s offense, but it remains to be seen how much and if there are negatives we haven’t yet accounted for. How Nash performs on defense will also be key, the Spurs will surely test him on that end of the floor to see how he holds up physically. They don’t have to do anything out of the ordinary to do so, they simply must run him off some screens and attack him in isolation a few times to see how he performs.

Beyond Nash, however, there aren’t many new wrinkles to explore — though the Lakers certainly have the potential to mix things up more due to missing Kobe and how that affects style of play and rotations. These teams are what they are heading in to this contest and much of what we see today will be about execution and energy. The team that does the former better and brings more of the latter will be the one that has a better chance of claiming the all important first game. The Spurs are favored to win this contest and the series, and with good reason. They’re the better team by any metric we have available to us to measure such things.

In a way, however, that underdog status can be used to fuel the Lakers. For the first time in what seems like an eternity, the Lakers can truly adopt the “us against the world” mindset and use that as an extra bit of motivation. Many expect the Lakers to compete, but few (if anyone) expects them to win. This shouldn’t matter to a team who has confidence that they can win anyway (as the Lakers claim they are), but it would be silly to think it won’t play a part in their approach to the series. When no one believes in you, there can be hardening of your core that can help move you forward. We’ll see if this holds true for the Lakers.

Lastly, and I say this every year, for the fans, it’s time to sit back and try to enjoy this ride the best we can. The regular season offered many ups and downs. The playoffs will offer more of them. But now that the team has made the post-season, they have the opportunity to do something special. Whether they do or not will depend on a myriad of factors, none of which we can control. So, enjoy this extended journey for as long as it lasts. We may just be surprised when it’s all over.

In Game Preview, NBA Playoffs
permalink

Preview and Chat: The Houston Rockets

Darius Soriano —  April 17, 2013

Records: Lakers 44-37 (8th in the West), Rockets 45-36 (7th in the West)
Offensive ratings: Lakers 105.7 (8th in the NBA), Rockets 106.9 (6th in the NBA)
Defensive ratings: Lakers 103.7 (T 18th in the NBA), Rockets 103.6 (T 16th in the NBA)
Projected Starting Lineups: Lakers: Steve Blake, Jodie Meeks, Metta World Peace, Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard
Rockets: Jeremy Lin, James Harden, Chandler Parsons, Greg Smith, Omer Asik
Injuries: Lakers: Kobe Bryant (out for the season), Steve Nash (out), Jordan Hill (out); Rockets: none

Rockets Blogs: Red 94 is a very good site dedicated to covering this team. Check them out.

Talking Points: This is it. The Lakers’ season has come down to a single game. Win, and they’re into the playoffs — and at the 7th seed. Lose, and, well, let’s not even discuss that. This is the Lakers’ chance to achieve what they’ve seeking for what seems like months. They want into the playoffs and this game is their boarding pass. They simply must grab it.

However, the Rockets offer all sorts of problems for the Lakers’ team. First, they’re fast and athletic. They play the league’s quickest pace and thrive on creating a tempo that teams who aren’t used to playing that way have trouble managing. Second, they’re a high volume three point shooting team that loves to create shots out of dribble penetration. Third, they’re one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league. Considering the Lakers have issues with defending in transition and against dribble penetration, the Rockets offer a pretty good foil.

For the Lakers to win this game, then, the goal is to slow the tempo of the game down and focus on the things the Rockets don’t do well. Like the Lakers, Houston struggles to defend. And, in trading away two-thirds of their power forward rotation away at the trade deadline, one of their bigger weaknesses comes inside. Yes, they have defensive stalwart Omer Asik manning the middle. He’s an ox inside and is very good at pushing defenders off their spot and using a combination of angles, smarts, and strength to limit their effectiveness. That said, he’s only one guy. After him the Rockets will rely on a combination of Craig Smith, Cole Aldrich, Terrence Jones and Dontas Motiejunas inside. Not to discredit those guys, but they’re not as good on defense as Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard are on offense. The plan should be to attack inside and make the Rockets defend  inside.

Straight post ups will do fine, but some creativity will be needed as well. Big to big actions both in the form of high-lows and block to block exchanges are both good strategies. Get Pau and Dwight on the move into the post and let them attack against a defender that isn’t fully set. That will force perimeter defenders to help down and should open up shots for the Lakers’ wing players. Shots that will need to be knocked down.

This is where Blake, Meeks, Ron, Clark, and Jamison will be needed. All are capable of hitting the long ball and will need to keep the defense honest by doing so. Ron, Clark, and Jamison will also be needed in slipping into the cracks of the defense via cuts and dives to work the interior when Dwight and Pau post up. The Rockets’ defenders will be extra attentive to what happens on the block and that’s when smart cuts will be needed to take advantage. If the Lakers’ forwards can get some easy baskets inside to complement what their big men are doing, the Lakers can further control the tempo and keep the game at a reasonable pace. Also look for Blake to try and create out of the P&R, if not just shots for himself, but for his teammates by getting deep into the paint and drawing enough attention that opportunities are created for others.

As mentioned above, slowing the Rockets will be difficult and even if the Lakers are good at keeping them out of the open court (which is by no means easy), they’ll still need to defend well in the half court to have any chance of winning this game. Against the Spurs the Lakers did a much better job of being disciplined in the half court, making sharp rotations and funneling penetration to their big men. Against the Rockets that same effort will be needed as they are primarily a P&R and drive and kick team  that relies on over helping and then attacking of sloppy closeouts. This is especially true of Harden and Lin who are not just crafty with the ball but very good finishers from all over the floor.

Keeping those two out of the paint isn’t going to be easy. In fact, it will be nearly impossible. So, what I’d prefer to see is for their defenders to simply keep them to one side and shade them into help. Harden is going to get left, but the goal should be to keep him left and not let him Euro-step his way across the defender’s body where he can create contact and still finish. Slide with him on his hip and force him to finish over the top of the contest from the helping big. If he gets fully by his man, the defense is toast. The same is true of Lin, only he’s going to go to his right hand rather than his left. Once the ball is penetrated the other big man must be in position to help on the glass and to challenge any shot that comes should the ball handler dump the ball off. If the Lakers’ help is sharp, they can limit the damage. If it’s not, well…it will be a long night.

The goal tonight is to win regardless of what any of the other teams are doing around the league. The Jazz face the Grizzlies in Memphis and should the home team win, the Lakers are into the post season no matter what happens at Staples Center. That said, a win tonight represents a move up from eighth into seventh and a date with the Spurs. No disrespect meant to them, but facing them rather than the Thunder is the best case scenario for the Lakers. Not because the Spurs aren’t a great team, but because the Thunder are the best team in the bracket. But that’s getting ahead of ourselves.

Tonight is about one thing only — beating the Rockets. Do that and everything else takes care of itself. It won’t be easy, but what in this season has been? This is the last battle of the regular season, the Lakers need all hands on deck to grind it out for one more game.

Where you can watch: 7:30pm start time on TWC Sportsnet and ESPN. Also listen on ESPN Radio 710AM.

In Game Preview
permalink