Regular readers of this site know Xavier, a professional basketball coach living in Barcelona (who recently earned a well-deserved promotion). He has a very good blog although the updates have been slow because he’s been working. The guy knows his stuff, and he has seen most of the world’s basketball teams much more than we have, so he was kind enough to do a little scouting report for this blog. Enjoy.
Teams to beat
While sorting the teams and ranking them, there were only 2 with more than 8 players other teams should take pretty serious and those teams were Spain and USA.
On paper, this team is the greatest ever since 92’ Dream Team. You don’t need me to tell you about these guys but I can help with how they fit into FIBA ball.
You guys have been discussing how pick&roll killed the US team other years. That’s true, but it’s mostly because US team doesn’t know how to play team defense. What Celtics did to the Lakers was team defense, and that’s what USA should play in order to compete.
American fans belief the team is thin at the frontcourt. It would be thin for the NBA but not FIBA. Melo should be one of the main weapons of the team (he has the perfect combination of skill-set, size and athletism for a 4 in FIBA ball) playing the PF backed up by Prince or Boozer depending on the situation while Howard and Bosh hold the C. For me it’s perfect.
One thing I have some concerns is team mentality. Lebron and Wade promising the gold medal after all those years of disappointment? Twelve alpha dogs in the same team…How many balls do this team need to have all players happy? Having 3 great PG it’s not enough, you need guys who can play without the ball to get the right mood to be great. Will they be able to do that?
If this can be solved, damn we’ll have fun watching this team.
Their names may sound familiar to you. Four NBA players (Gasol brothers, Rudy Fernandez and Jose Calderon) three former NBA (JC Navarro, Raul Lopez and Garbajosa) and one soon to be NBA (Ricky Rubio).
Jose Calderon would be a starter in 25 of the 30 NBA teams, Navarro and Rudy Fernandez are one of the best 1-2 punches at the wings and the Gasol brothers are sick at the frontcourt. Marc Gasol quick improvement might send Felipe Reyes to the bench while shifting Pau to the 4, anyway this 3 headed monster is a pretty good one to have. Throw in Garbajosa playing some 3 and 4 if you wish to be more pleasant with it. Carlos Jimenez, team captain and one of the best European glue guys, may start at the 3 but I expect to see Navarro and Rudy in crunch time.
But this is not just about names. These guys have something other teams don’t have. They are all FRIENDS. Gasol, Calderon, Reyes, Lopez and Navarro have been together in the national team since they were 15. Their team chemistry could not be better and that give them a plus over any other team.
One guy you’ll probably want to see is the 17 years old sensation Ricky Rubio. He’s smarter than any other player his age. Led the ACB in steals last year (second was his team mate and now blazers rookie Fernandez) while just playing 25 min per game. He might not have many minutes because he’s the third PG behind Calderon and Lopez.
Coach Garcia-Reneses loves defense and use it to confuse rivals. For the years I’ve seen him coaching, his trademark has always been “don’t let them think on the offense, make them run on defense”. An NBA scout told me that it’s a shame NBA teams doesn’t look for coaches overseas because Garcia-Reneses would be a great steal.
The team will be playing with a high tempo but not rushing, creating the game not from quick steals but from exhausting defense.
I understand why Ginobili and Oberto play in San Antonio — because Argentina is the closest team to the Spurs. They might look old, and they can play dirty basketball, but they win. Argentina is that team that’s always there playing for the top spot.
They are built from the inside-out. Scola is a monster inside the paint and Oberto will be his sidekick in the frontcourt. Nocioni, Ginobili and Delfino handle the outside scoring while Pablo Prigioni takes the ball to the best chance to score the ball.
I don’t know how Ginobili will be when the tournament starts but what I’ve seen in a couple pre-olympics games is that he’s not 100%. With Ginobili in killer-mode they are a team to beat, without they are a step behind USA and Spain.
Linas Kleiza might be it’s only NBA but Lithuania’s heart and soul is Sarunas Jasikevicius. His NBA career wasn’t as dreamt but in Europe is a basketball god. I’ve seen Saras with the team around him, listening, and then leave the huddle 100% motivated. Saras is the consummate leader.
Two guys I like a lot are the Lavrinovic twins. Darius and Ksystof are the pair of interior players of the team. They are comfortable leaving the paint so defenses might be aware of that while defending the low post.
The twins, Kleiza and Jasikevicius will be on the starting 5 along with Ramunas Siskauskas key member of CSKA Moscow Euroleague title.
Jasaitis(SG-SF), Javtokas (C), Kaukenas and Maciulis (SG) will play a big roll from the bench.
I’ve heard many times I’ve heard that the Greek pick&roll killed US 2 summers ago. Guys, by then the USA was too confident and inexperienced in FBIBA play — and that’s when they had to face the best pick&roll PG in the world, Theo Papaloukas. It’s incredible how he read the game. His favourite play is a right handed pick anywhere the court (pretty often from the top of the key and even from half court) and get to the paint to see what happens. Once he’s there he takes his time. Look right, look left, walks thru the bigman forest, fake it with his head and while he’s heading out dish it from nowhere or take it out to start it over again.
Dimitris Diamantidis, a superb defender and good playmaker, is the other PG of the team, and will probably see lots of minutes at the SG as he’s also one of the stars of the team. Both PGs are over 6-5 feet tall.
There’s just 1 player shorter, team’s first scoring option SG Vassilis Spanoulis. You might remember him for his one-year tenure in Houston leaving the next year saying he was homesick. The truth is that he reminds me a lot to former Grizzlie JC Navarro but Spanoulis didn’t have a coach who gave him a chance to show his game.
The guy Greece will be missing a lot is Lazaros Papadopulous, one of the top 5 bigman in Europe, who said he would not be playing for national team anymore. Without him they’ve lost their core interior weapon.
I want to see to see Clippers draftee Sofoklis Schortsanitis, nicknamed Baby Shaq because his strength… and because he weigh the same as Shaq at 6-9. I heard a story of him that Olimpiakos sent him to a weigh losing center and came home with some pounds more than how he entered. Concerned, the team looked the bill of the hotel and saw that the room service bill was quite expensive…
Winning Spain in last year’s Eurobasket finals makes me give them some respect, and that’s why I consider them contenders.
JR Holden has been playing great lately making CSKA Moscow consider trading European superstar PG Papaloukas (finally traded to Olimpiakos). He is never tired, could play 44 min per game and be able to hit the big three in crunch time. That said, he’s not the best playmaker.
The playmaking of the team relies in Jazz forward Andrei Kirilenko. I don’t know what goes thru AK mind when playing FIBA ball that changes his offensive arsenal lately hidden in Salt Lake City.
This team relies a lot in three pointers. Holden, Khryapa, Monya, Pashutin can shoot out the lights and even AK jacks some long range bombs. Alexey Savrasenko will be an important player in the paint helping AK.
Big bodies closing the lines in defense while playing the drive and kick in offense.
You can never count off a team that features Dirk Nowitzki but for me this team has more questions than answers.
Kaman asking for the German nationality was as a gift from above for Germany as the C position was held by the old Patrick Femerling. He and Dirk may lead the team or head early back home.
Other bigmans of the team, Tim Ohlbrecht and Jan-Hendrik Jagla are two of the most inconsistent contributors in Europe. Ohlbrecht is still young at just 20 but skinny for the five spot. Time ago he was projected as a top 20 draft pick but his lack of presence could not get him even an important contract in Europe. I’ve seen Jagla scoring 5-6 3’s one game and the next shoot 2-12. I like this guy, he got game, but at 27 years old you are supposed to be more consistent and offer a solid contribution every time you hit the court.
Outside the frontcourt, this team is pretty thin. Pascal Roller (PG) and Robert Garrett (SG) are the two vets who can deliver it more constantly but I would not bet my money on them.
I was thinking of handling China the ALL-ENIGMA TEAM award. Outside of Yao no one here is proven.
Jianlian Yi, newly acquired by the Nets, has potential, coached when young as a wing player he grow late and became a face to basket 7 footer.
There are two other interesting prospects in the squad. Lakers draftee Sun Yue and Chen Jianghua.
Sun’s case its pretty similar to Jianlian’s. When he was young he was short and played the PG since then one day started to grow quick — really quick — and now is a 23 years old 6-9 PG. Talent is there but he doesn’t really knows how to use it. More over, he’s been out of Chinese team for political reasons (Beijing Aoshen, his pro team, didn’t want its players play for the national team years before and they were excluded from Chinese league, since then the team plays in ABA league) so his spot in rotation may not be clear at all right now. Might see also minutes at the 2 and the 3
Chen Jianghua is a 19 years old speedy PG from Guangdong. He is considered one of the best talents in China where few short players have become worth watching. The squad is pretty loaded at the guard but he’s got a chance to take the starting spot.
Balcanic teams always inspire my fear. Croatia is a group of talented hard workers. They started a youth movement a couple years ago in the national team — Davor Kus (29) and Nikola Prkacin (33) are the 2 vets and are surrounded by the likes of new Raptor PG Roko Ukic (24), Popovic (26), Marko Tomas (23), Planinic (26), Banic (24) and Stanco Barac (22).
The PG duties are well distributed with Ukic and Planinic with both able to play the SG. At the wings will be Popovic, Tomas and Kus while Banic and Barac are two young frontcourt players with great work ethic and growing into pretty solid basketball players in Spanish ACB league.
Be careful with Croatia because is the kind of team that could beat bigger teams who are too confident.
Lucky to be there
Australia, Iran and Angola are 3 teams that got their passport to the Olympics because of regional distribution of invitations to keep the competition the more international as possible. I could start saying many teams that deserve this berth much more than them, starting with France, Italy, Slovenia or Puerto Rico.