If you are just a basketball fan, root for Join the Dance, owned by Rashard Lewis of the Orlando Magic.

And no, Pioneer of the Nile is not in the mix for me. I don’t think he will make the synthetic to dirt transition well, although the slop could help him some. I really liked I Want Revenge, that scratch was sad to see.

1) Friesan Fire. He would be up there anyway and the conditions make him my favorite.

2) Dunkirk. I think he is going to struggle coming from way off the pace in this one, with a crowded field, but he is simply too talented to leave out of an exotic.

3) Desert Party. Like his stalking running style for this race, and he has ran bullets in training.

The big question handicapping this year is Big Brown — is he a freak who is by far the best of a slow group? Or is he a gifted but inexperienced horse in a terrible post position who will fall flat (ala Curlin)?

This is a really tough year to handicap because every horse has plenty of flaws to pick apart and then there is the whole synthetic to dirt track issue. This is a year a longshot may pull through and the exacta may pay big. All that said, here are my picks.

1. Colonel John. Churchill Downs has long favored horses coming from off the pace, and with plenty of speed out front coming off the pace is the place to be in this race. This horse has a very long stride, well suited for this track, and he had a bullet work over the dirt. My only concern is he gets lost in traffic.

2. Denis of Cork. Steve Haskins of BloodHorse talked me into this with his glowing reports on this horse this week. Another horse charging from off the pace with a world of talent.

3. Big Brown. I think the post position hurts him and his inexperience means he can’t overcome it. That said, I can’t leave him off because…. What if he really is that good? He had the outside post and got pushed three wide through the first turn at the Florida Derby and he won by 12 lengths.

In the exotics I’m throwing in Z Fortune and Pyro. I wouldn’t shocked if Pyro wins the thing. Despite the picks, I’ll be rooting for Visionaire as I know some people in the ownership syndicate.

Enjoy the race, tomorrow we talk hoops again (and in the previous post’s comments).