Archives For Laker Analysis

The off-season is here for the Lakers and that means a slow-down of news around our forum blue and gold clad basketball team. Fear not, though, faithful FB&Ger’s as there is still plenty of good reading and listening around the web to consume you until the next piece of breaking information comes out of El Segundo or Staples Center.

With that, below are some things I have been checking out around the web, along with a few thoughts of my own. Enjoy and have a good weekend…

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Basketball is one sport where having that one singular difference maker can matter most. With only 10 players on the floor at one time and each team’s 5 man unit responsible for offense and defense simultaneously, having the guy who is the best player matters a great deal. This is one reason why trades are often viewed through the prism of the team who won the trade is often the one who got the best player. The value of that guy is simply too high to be adequately replaced my multiple, lesser talents or a cadre of draft picks.

I have been thinking about the idea of the best player more and more in recent days after we got through our first weekend of playoff basketball (and, in some cases, into game 2’s). At the time I am writing this this is where each playoff series stands:

  • Warriors 1, Blazers 0
  • Spurs 2, Grizzlies 0
  • Rockets 1, Thunder 0
  • Clippers 1, Jazz 1
  • Celtics 0, Bulls 2
  • Cavs 2, Pacers 0
  • Raptors 1, Bucks 1
  • Wizards 1, Hawks 0

Looking at those results, I’d argue the best player theory is well on its way to holding true. Here’s who I’d label the best guy from each series (in some cases, I’ll name two guys if I think it’s close):

  • Kevin Durant, Steph Curry (both Warriors)
  • Kawhi Leonard (Spurs)
  • James Harden (Rockets), Russell Westbrook (Thunder)
  • Chris Paul (Clippers)
  • Jimmy Butler (Bulls)
  • LeBron James (Cavs)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
  • John Wall (Wizards)

Of course basketball remains a team sport and there will be cases where even if a team has the best player, an accumulation of really good (to legitimately great) players on the other team will make the difference in a playoff series. After all, playoff preparation, with its hyper-focused game-plans can mean that even the best player in a series can be neutralized or simply overcome by a more complete roster on the other side. We’ve seen this throughout history and this year will be no different.

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A common theme from the final two-plus months of the season was this idea that all of the players were now “on notice” regarding their future with the team. With Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka taking over for the dispatched Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak, the narrative (for lack of a better word) became one of the players needing to “impress their new bosses” and “show that they belong on the team” for the future.

It got to the point where an uptick in play by some of the young players (ahem, D’Angelo Russell) was, at times, attributed to Magic and Pelinka coming on board and inspiring guys to play better/harder. And I’m sure there’s some truth to that. In my experience, whenever a new boss comes on board, you want to reinforce your value by working hard and putting out your best effort. I would imagine this concept is even more relevant in professional sports.

How much this idea was real and how much of it was projecting by media, fans, etc doesn’t really matter, honestly. What does matter, though, is that the tables are now turning away from the players and back onto Magic and Pelinka who, in their first off-season running the team, are themselves about to be on notice.

While Pelinka noted in his media session following the team’s exit interviews that the players were going to be held to a certain standard of excellence, he also noted that the message of living up that standard applied to him, Magic, and their staff too. And while that’s a nice soundbite, the fact is, now is really their time to turn the vision they want for the team into an executable plan which can start to bear fruit.

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The Lakers concluded their season on Wednesday with a loss to the Warriors to snap their 5 game win streak, then had a marathon session of exit interviews on Thursday to officially close the books on the 2016-17 campaign. We’ll have more thoughts on the this year over the course of a long break from actual games during the off-season, but it was nice to hear the players, coach, and General Manager reflect on the year that was and offer some insights into the next steps.

After listening to most all of the full sessions, a few themes arose.

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The day I can’t be excited about the Lakers winning a game on a buzzer beater is the day I no longer want to be fan.

There’s been a lot of debate about the Lakers winning games lately. D’Angelo Russell’s shot in the clip above gave the Lakers their 4th straight win in this final stretch of the season. That’s not just the team’s longest win streak this year, it’s their longest winning streak in 4 years. Think about that. This team has been so bad they haven’t been able to win this many games in a row since the season Kobe tore his achilles. Now they’re winning and I’m supposed to…be mad? Nah.

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To many of their fans’ dismay, the Lakers have won 3 straight games. The most recent came on Friday night, pulling out a close game on the stellar play of Julius Randle and key shot making by D’Angelo Russell. Randle’s 25 points paced the team and while his 6 rebounds were below his regular output, 5 of those came on the offensive glass where he created second chance points which were key to the win.

As for Russell, he only shot 4-10 from the field for his 14 points, but he hit both of his 4th quarter shots and scored 7 points in the final period. Both shots were big ones, the first a three pointer with the team trailing by 1 with under three minutes to go. In a back and forth affair that was ready to be taken by whichever team clamped down or hit the key shots, Russell’s 3 was a key basket.

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So, the Lakers won again. They beat the Spurs. On the road. On another one of those 1-game road trips to the mid-west that we all love. Hooray! Hooray? Ugh.

This is the collective response across the internet this morning, with more and more Lakers’ fans moving past the conflicted about wins stage to the why the hell are you winning games stage completely. You’ll also very easily find people taking glee in the Lakers’ misfortunes by actually winning games — and not just Suns fans.

Anyway, I’m not here to tell you how to feel. You’re mad? I get it. You’re mad online? Okay, I’d advise against that, but to each their own.

Again, I do understand why fans are upset. I don’t need to spell it out completely, but losing close to 60 games and then losing your (high) draft pick is bad. Losing that draft pick and having that trigger losing your pick two years later is pouring salt on the wound and then rinsing it off with some hydrogen peroxide. This is the situation the Lakers face with their 2017 and 2019 picks. None of that is lost on me.

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If you’re not reading Nylon Calculus, you’re making a mistake. The site consistently provides high level analysis which bridges ideas between analytics and what we’re seeing with our eyes to offer insight to us fans. Today they posted a great graphical look at the “style” NBA offenses exhibit that is worth your time. Seriously, go read it. We’ll be here when you get back.

Okay, now that you’re back, I’ll let Ian Levy explain the approach he took for determining each trait which made up the graph:

Ball movement is measured with the average touch time for each team, from the NBA’s player tracking statistics. A lower average touch time means the ball is moving from player to player more quickly.

Player movement is measured with a combination different NBA.com tracking statistics, and works out to average distance traveled per 24 seconds of offensive possession.

Pace is measured with the average length of an offensive possession from Inpredictable, a more accurate representation for how quickly a team is working than traditional pace.

Shot selection continues to be the trickiest measure. In the past I had used Seth Partnow’s XeFG% which estimates what a team’s effective field goal percentage should be given the location of their shots, the mix of catch-and-shoot and pull-ups, and how close the nearest defender was. However, those stats were built on the player tracking shot logs which stopped being publicly available on Jan. 25 of last season. This year I went with a more simplistic measure and used MoreyBall percentage — in this case the percentage of a team’s true shooting opportunities that came at the rim, from the free throw line, or on a 3-pointer. It’s a generalized measure but captures something about how much each team hews to the shots that are, on average, the most efficient.

All pretty straight forward, right? Good. Now see below for the Lakers distribution in graphical form:

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