Archives For Laker Analysis

One hundred eighty nine.

189.

One. Eight. Nine.

That’s the number of minutes the lineup of Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Metta World Peace, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard have played together. It’s the Lakers’ 3rd most used lineup on the season. A season ravaged with injuries. A season that has a pre-season favorite to reach the conference finals (at least), battling for their playoff lives on the last game of the season.

339.

That’s the number of minutes the most frequent used lineup the Lakers have used have played together. Earl Clark is in that group (joining the Nash, Kobe, Metta, and Dwight foursome in place of Pau Gasol). If you want to compare that to minutes played together from other teams around the league, it’s the 28th most used lineup in the NBA this season.

It trails the most used lineup (the Thunder’s starting five) by nearly a thousand minutes. It trails the Grizzlies starting lineup by nearly 300 minutes — no, not the current Grizzlies lineup, the one featuring Rudy Gay at small forward; the same Rudy Gay who was traded in February. Four teams (Thunder — 2, Grizzlies — 2, 76ers — 2, Warriors — 3) have multiple lineups with more minutes played than the aforementioned Lakers’ one.

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The Los Angeles Lakers have won five of their past six games to solidify their hold on the final spot in the Western Conference playoff picture.

Their victory over the Golden State Warriors last night despite Stephen Curry’s 47-point eruption should have been cause for celebration. Although some of us had some trepidation about stating Pau Gasol was back to his 2010 form, his triple double last night certainly erased some of the doubts many had about the Spaniard’s ability to rise to the occasion.

And then all of Los Angeles fell as their very own incarnation of James Bond was victimized in the Lakers’ version of Skyfall.

Kobe Bryant has an Achilles tear and thus will miss the remainder of the 2012-13 regular season as well as a part of the 2013-14 campaign.

No matter how many tributes are painted about the Laker soldier, there just isn’t any way to truly illustrate how painful this setback is for both the franchise and the league as a whole.

In today’s NBA, Kobe Bryant is the Los Angeles Lakers.

But starting tomorrow, it no longer is the case. This isn’t meant in any way, shape or form as a means of minimizing Bryant’s value or importance.

But the saddest thing about his absence is just that: he is no longer a player that can help the team on the hardwood this season.

Although it’s tough to predict if this is even possible, Mike D’Antoni must get the players to regroup for two regular season games. These contests aren’t just about the immediate future, they have a bearing on the franchise’s next steps.

The Purple and Gold must figure things out and band together. It’s an incredibly difficult proposition to ask the guys to “suck it” and go out and win two more games, but make no mistake that’s exactly how Kobe would approach the situation if say Dwight Howard had been the one who had been injured.

As odd as this may sound, the future is now.  The Hollinger Playoff Odds give the Lakers a 79.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Utah Jazz who trail the Lake Show have a 20.9 percent probability of overtaking the final Western Conference playoff spot.

The schedule breakdown for the Lakers:

  • Sunday April 14: San Antonio Spurs
  • Wednesday April 17: Houston Rockets

Both games will be played at home.

This might be a little scary but there’s no way around it. In the 19 minutes the Lakers played this season without Kobe Bryant against the Spurs, the Lakers scored 80.2 points per 100 possessions according to NBA.com’s advanced stats tool. Projected over a full season, that’s easily the worst figure in the league.

As it pertains to the Rockets, in 32 minutes without Bryant, NBA.com’s advanced stats tool tells us the Lakers scored 91.9 points per 100 possessions. It’s an improvement in comparison to the numbers against the Spurs, but still worthy of last place in the Association.

The sample sizes are incredibly small obviously.

The Lakers will now have to mix and match and then figure out which lineups work best. It stands to reason D’Antoni will always have either Gasol or Howard on the floor if the team will remain successful.

The sky has officially fallen in Los Angeles. Now it’s time for damage control.

Statistical support provided by NBA.com.

It’s been about 12 hours since word hit that Kobe Bryant suffered what looks to be a torn achilles tendon. And, to be completely honest, I’m still struggling to form fully developed thoughts on the idea of him suffering this type of injury.

I’ve seen Kobe hurt before. The list of injuries he’s suffered and played through is endless — a torn labrum, severely sprained ankles, mangled fingers, a torn ligament in his wrist, a fractured nose, and on and on it goes. He’s been something different than human in his ability to battle and fight through. It’s part of what’s made him Kobe; one of the reasons that he has universal respect even from those who openly root against him.

This is different, though. Seeing him clutching at his lower leg, that look on his face — not of determination to battle through, but of knowing something was really wrong — was something unseen to my eyes before. He’s really hurt this time and the impact it will have on what’s left of his career is unknown. Will he play again? If so, when? How well? Have we seen the last of the Kobe Bryant we know?

Where he goes from here remains to be seen. On his Facebook page he spoke openly about the doubts he has about coming back strong and the fire that burns to do just that. Kobe, more than any other athlete of our time is complicated that way. He’s been the ultimate yin and yang player. He’s the guy with the genius level basketball IQ who sometimes makes the plays that make you scratch your head. He’s the ultimate solo artist who will throttle an opponent with fantastic team play. He’s the guy who offers the most biting critique only to later put his arm around a teammate and offer sage words of wisdom. It seems the players he is most frustrated with are the ones he respects the most; the ones who physically challenge him are the ones he wants by his side in the trenches.

In the past few months Kobe has talked about the mental drain of continuing to compete at the level he has been while wondering if he could continue to do it. The next day he’d remark how he could play for 5 more years if he wanted. This injury will challenge him in new ways and only he will be able to know how much he has left to give to try and get back to the court.

What this means for the Lakers is clear. They’ll still function as a team because they still have several very good players. Losing Kobe hurts in many tangible (and intangible) ways, but they can and will adjust. They’re professionals, after all. But Kobe was their best wing player and, for pretty much this entire season, their best player overall.

He carried their offense in a variety of ways and replacing his production will be nearly impossible. Replacing it from the wing, will be impossible. The Lakers simply don’t have the players to do so. Whether they make the playoffs or not — and I bet that they do — they’re worse off and whatever hope they had of challenging a top seed is now nearly gone. I expect they’ll compete hard and still challenge, but you don’t lose your 5-star general and become a better army. The team will close ranks and try their best and that will lead to some wins but it won’t be the same. It just won’t be.

I think Dwight Howard will try to fill the void of production, that Pau Gasol will take up the mantle of leadership, that Steve Nash will return and play his brains out (that guys is competitive too, you know). I think that team will still be entertaining and fun and a lot of things that we’ve wanted them to be all season. But they’ll be it without Kobe and that, for me at least, will be hard. And strange.

The quest for blame is on and I understand the sentiment. When things go wrong we want to know why. We ask and answer the question ourselves and then react accordingly.

Mike D’Antoni’s name will ring out as the culprit here and while I can relate to throwing blame in his direction, I don’t do so myself. Yes, one of his chief jobs is to manage a player’s minutes and to protect them from themselves. This is especially true of the super-competitive players who, if left to their own decision making, will play through whatever their bodies will tolerate. Kobe’s body can tolerate more than others and I do believe that D’Antoni could have been better at managing the situation to try and keep Kobe from playing to the level of fatigue he reached this year.

But Kobe wanted to play and the Lakers needed him to play. That much is not arguable. There wasn’t the luxury of rest when every game mattered so much. Do you rest Kobe now when there’s no guarantee the rest will even be applicable towards your ultimate goal? If the Lakers don’t the games they do with Kobe in the game for so many minutes, they don’t qualify to play the games where that rest matters. What then?

This is why the situation was lose-lose. The hole was too deep and the team had to fight too hard just to get in a position to qualify for the chance to reach their goals. It wasn’t supposed to be that way, but it was. Fault for that lies with everyone. With the players for playing poorly enough to lose all those games. With the front office for building a roster so dependent on a select few, aged players. With the injury bug who feasted on the Lakers all season. And, yes, with the coach who was too stubborn and sacrificed long term thinking for the types of short term returns that were needed to try and, ironically enough, get back to where the long term view could be taken.

It’s been a sick season that way and there is no remedy for it. So blame who you want, just know that whoever you blame isn’t alone, as there’s plenty to go around.

After all these words, I still don’t really know what to think about it all. Kobe and I are close in age. In a way, I’ve always related to him simply because we come from the same time and have been influenced by the same things when it comes to the game we both love. He’s one of the best to ever play the game and I’m just a guy observing it all from a distance, but that distance between us has been closed through my television, the internet, and a press pass or two.

His career likely isn’t over, but it feels like an era is. The era where I could depend on seeing number 24 (and before it number 8) take the floor under every conceivable circumstance certainly is. For that I’m incredibly sad, but also tremendously appreciative. I got the chance to see one of the very best ever do what he does best. I also saw him go down swinging, competing his hardest, performing at the some of the highest highs he ever has.

And in a way it’s fitting. Cruel and undeserved, but fitting nonetheless.

Dwight Howard is the Lakers’ defensive anchor. Since the all-star break, he’s been flashing the dominance on that side of the ball that he’s built his reputation on. With this version of Dwight Howard, the Lakers’ defensive ceiling is raised several notches simply because of his ability to move in space, contest shots, and still recover to the paint to rebound. A player that big and that active can make up for a lot of the short comings of his teammates.

But Dwight Howard can’t do it alone. In fact, that’s been one of the main downfalls of the Lakers’ defense this year. Even when Dwight wasn’t playing as well as he is now on defense, he was more often than not in a position that approximated where he needed to be within the team’s scheme. The problem was, his teammates were not. So while Dwight tried to slide around the floor and contest shots with his normal enthusiasm (sometimes more effectively than others), his mates often left him on an island on the back side to guard multiple players and work the defensive glass. This is too much to ask of a fully healthy Howard, much less the diminished version we saw for the better part of the season.

For the Lakers to tighten up their defense, then, they need the players who surround Dwight to do their jobs more consistently.

Due to the issues of the roster, the Lakers will never be a team who’s great at denying dribble penetration. They simply employ too many players who lack the lateral quickness and athleticism to slow players who attack them in isolation or when coming off screens. Though they work hard, Steve Nash, Steve Blake, Antawn Jamison, Pau Gasol are four players who are often targeted in isolation and attacked off the dribble. Further, Kobe, Earl Clark and Jodie Meeks can lack awareness when guarding in space and can give up lanes to the rim. That’s every player (not named Dwight Howard) in the Lakers’ rotation and all are prone to giving up dribble penetration to their man.

Understanding this fact means that what’s most important to the Lakers’ team defense are the rotations that happen once guys get into the paint. As mentioned, Dwight has mostly done his job this year (as has Gasol, though he’s nowhere near the deterrent that Dwight is) at stepping up and challenging shots. But it’s the guys who play behind Dwight (the wings and the other big man) who need to better be in position as helpers to challenge plays near the rim and rebound defensively.

This is where Kobe Bryant matters a great deal.

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UPDATE: The Lakers released more information about Ron’s injury and recovery timetable and it’s not good:

This, of course, was always a possibility but now that it’s official it is dispiriting. Barring what would right now look to be an unlikely run in the playoffs, Ron’s season is over.

The hits keep on coming. This time, it’s the player I still affectionately call Ron who has been bit by the injury bug. As we mentioned in our game recap, Ron sat out the 2nd half of Monday’s game against the Warriors with what was being called a strained knee. Today he received and MRI in Minnesota and the news was not good:

Another in a long line of injuries this season. This one, just like the others, poses a real problem for the Lakers in both the short an the long term.

As we’ve discussed several times before, the Lakers are already thin on the wing. While the Lakers have several guards who can play on the wing (Kobe, Meeks, Blake), Ron is the only true small forward who has played any substantial role this season. He’s a vital rotation player if only because of the position he plays and the minutes he soaks up as a viable two way player. For a team that’s as top heavy and as shallow at certain positions as the Lakers, these middle tier role players who’ve earned minutes are nearly as indispensable as the big four.

Beyond the minutes, though, Ron’s also been an underrated performer in terms of how his on court performance has translated to team success. When Ron is on the floor, the Lakers’ offensive efficiency is 5.1 points better than when he’s on the bench. On defense, he has a similar impact as the team’s defensive efficiency is 4.8 points better when he’s on the floor than when he’s on the bench. These splits — especially on defense — are some of the best on the team and represent a player who clearly impacts team performance even if he’s had his ups and downs as an individual performer.

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