Fast Break Thoughts

Darius Soriano —  June 12, 2013 — 23 Comments

*The Spurs are showing the perfect blend between a team who starts a traditional lineup with two big men and one that has the shooters and versatility to play smaller while spacing the floor. They also run a fantastic system that relies on constant ball and player movement in order to generate good looks on most every possession. The Lakers, who have some of these same ingredients as the Spurs, could do well to take some notes on some of the things that are working for the Spurs on both sides of the ball and adopt them into next year’s team.

*Speaking of next year, Brian Kamenetzky argues that the Lakers should trade Pau Gasol. Several good points are raised and I found myself nodding along in several sections of BK’s piece. That said, I’m still not entirely convinced trading Pau is the right move.

*The NBA could see an all time high in coaching turnover this summer. We’ve already seen 3 coaches who led their teams to franchise records in victories let go or not had their contracts renewed for next season. Today, rumors resurfaced that Doc Rivers may not return to coach the Celtics should they go into full rebuilding mode this summer. With all these coaching changes on the mind, the guys at Silver Screen and Roll discussed whether or not Mike D’Antoni will return to coach the Lakers next season. I, for one, think he will be back.

*Of course, the prevailing wisdom is that if D’Antoni were let go it would be because Dwight Howard made it be known he’d like it to be case should he return to the Lakers next season. I doubt Dwight goes in that direction, however. Dwight may not be known as the most PR savvy individual, but attaching his name to another coach getting fired likely isn’t in his best interest even if there are fans that would praise him for calling for the hit.

*Speaking of Dwight, Shaq is back in the news saying the reason he’s so hard on Dwight is because he thinks it’s his “duty” to held him “become one of the best big men in the league.” Okay, Shaq. Next you’re going to tell me you actually drive a Buick.

*I can’t take full credit for that line, by the way. I got a variation of it from this video compilation of players reading mean tweets they received in a segment for Jimmy Kimmel.

*Shaq’s not the only former legend dishing dirt on Dwight. Today, in conference call in his duties as analyst for the Finals, Magic Johnson said that Howard needs to work on his offense while also mentioning that Mike D’Antoni needs to focus more on defense.

*Not sure if you got the chance to watch the Julius Erving film “The Doctor” on NBA TV when it aired, but if you didn’t you should find the chance to do so. It was a great look at one of the all-timers and true pioneers of the modern game. As a bonus, the film ends with the Doc throwing one down at the ripe old age of 63. Pretty incredible.

*Of course, one of Dr. J’s most famous plays came against the Lakers when he dunked on a leaping then ducking Michael Cooper in the open court. Here’s a neat story of Cooper talking about that play and how he gets a royalty check every time the clip is shown.

In Fast Break Thoughts
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Measuring Consistency in the 2012-13 Lakers

Andre Khatchaturian —  June 11, 2013 — 26 Comments

Consistent play is a concept that is incessantly talked about by broadcasters and pundits in the world of sports. How often do we hear an announcer talk about how a certain player needs to be more consistent for their team to win a game?

Other than “heart”, consistency is the most talked about aspect of basketball that no one has yet to measure. That being said, it’s actually fairly easy to come up with a basic way to look at consistency.

The following metric attempts to measure consistent effectiveness and ineffectiveness in players using John Hollinger’s game score and PER.

Like any stat, it’s not the end all, be all of all numbers, nor is it intended to be. However, it gives fans a gist of which players are consistently reliable (or unreliable). This can prove to be a valuable tool in terms of player evaluation.

METHODOLOGY

John Hollinger’s game score is essentially the PER of a player’s single game performance. It has its critics, but it’s one of few statistics that measures a player’s single game performance.

By taking the standard deviation of a given player’s game scores for the entire season, one gets a number that tells us how much variation there was in the game scores. The more consistent a player was, the closer to zero the standard deviation of his game scores become.

However, simply doing this to measure a player’s consistent effectiveness is flawed. For instance, let’s take Kobe Bryant and Robert Sacre. Bryant’s standard deviation of game scores was 7.83 in 2012-13. Sacre’s was 1.83. Sacre’s standard deviation is closer to zero, so this means that his game score values had less variation than Kobe’s. This may be true, but it does not tell us which player was consistently effective.

So how do we separate the consistently effective players from the consistently ineffective ones?

We simply divide the standard deviation by the season PER. This gives us (in mathematical diction) the coefficient of variation. It tells us how consistent a player is RELATIVE to his own average.

After doing this operation, it becomes clear and obvious that Bryant is far more consistently effective than Sacre. Bryant’s coefficient of variation is 0.34, while Sacre’s is 0.54.

Here are the consistency ratings for the Los Angeles Lakers from this past season.

2012-13 CONSISTENCY RATINGS (LA LAKERS):

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Key Observations

  • Once again, the higher the coefficient of variation is, the more variable a player will perform relative to his average.
  • Jordan Hill is the most consistently effective player on the Lakers. He has the lowest coefficient of variation. Again, this does not mean he is the most EFFECTIVE player on the team. It only means that one can expect Hill to play at a level near his 18.5 PER on a consistent basis.
  • Steve Blake, Jodie Meeks, and Metta World Peace are great examples of players who would put in an amazing performance one night, then follow it up with a horrible game. We never knew what to expect from these guys. All of their coefficients of variation exceed 0.44.
  • Another interesting observation is Dwight Howard’s coefficient of variation. He was fourth on the team this year with a 0.377 coefficient of variation. That’s great, but it’s a huge rise from his final year with Orlando, when his coefficient of variation was 0.322.
  • To add more perspective to all of this, though, LeBron James’ coefficient of variation this season was a miniscule 0.19. Kevin Durant’s was even better at 0.18. Both of these guys weren’t consistently effective – they were consistently dominant.
  • The fact that the Lakers didn’t have a single player below 0.30 shows that the team was plagued with inconsistencies this season, which was obvious for anyone who watched the team this year. However, now it’s quantifiable.
  • This metric works well for lesser quality players who don’t see much floor time, too. Because the denominator (PER) is small for these types of players, the coefficient of variation often turns out to be large for guys like Sacre and Devin Ebanks. This tells us that they’re consistently ineffective when they play. If they DID play well, their denominator would be larger causing their coefficient of correlation to decrease.

LIMITATIONS

Taking the standard deviation of game scores for guys like Earl Clark who sat in the back of the bench and rarely played early on but then became a regular can be a bit convoluted. Clark rarely played early in the season and as a result, received low game scores. In the second half he played well and became an integral component for the Lakers. As a result, up went his game scores. The variety of numbers can inflate his standard deviation and make him look like an inconsistent player when really he just wasn’t playing much in the beginning of the season. It may be more effective to only include games where a player plays at least 12 minutes. But then we ignore performances from guys who played less than a quarter and made an impact on the game. Although rare, it’s unfair to ignore this. Therefore, we include the garbage time games for Clark early in the season and penalize him for not being a regular. Again, no stat is perfect, especially in this analytics era.

CONCLUSION

This metric helps us break down players into four different groups:

  • High PER, High Standard Deviation: This is Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant. They have high PERs, but can be inconsistent at times.
  • High PER, Low Standard Deviation: This is Kevin Durant and LeBron James. This is where everyone wants to be. These are guys who are consistently dominant.
  • Low PER, High Standard Deviation: This is Jodie Meeks and Metta World Peace. They can put up big games, but more often than not they’re going to be average or below average.
  • Low PER, Low Standard Deviation: This is Robert Sacre and Devin Ebanks. They are consistently ineffective.

The following table illustrates this notion:

Untitled2

This season, the Lakers had a lot of guys who had a PER below 15 (which is the league average) and a game score standard deviation greater than five. They were an inconsistent ball club.

Now while Durant, LeBron, and Kobe all had game score standard deviations greater than five, they made up for it because of their efficiency on the court. In other words, a standard deviation of five or six is not bad for super stars like LeBron or Kobe. Unfortunately for Kobe and Howard, their game score standard deviations hovered over seven. They would like theirs to be below six.

It’s all relative. That’s why it’s important to look at the coefficient of variation at the end of the day to see who consistently plays up to their own level and as previously mentioned, the Lakers didn’t have a single guy who had a coefficient of variation below 0.30.

In Laker Analysis
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Around The World (Wide Web): D’Antoni, Kobe-Dwight, Kobe’s Future, Laker Fans

Ryan Cole —  June 11, 2013 — 3 Comments

From Mark Heisler, Lakers Nation: For Kobe Bryant’s sins when he was young and impetuous, the gods sent him Dwight Howard. Once Bryant was the prodigy who wanted what he wanted when he wanted it and O’Neal, seven years older, the one who knew which end was up. Now Howard is the prodigy who wants what he wants when he wants it, and Bryant, seven years older, knows which end is up. Not that anyone was ever like Shaq & Kobe, the superstar teammates who weren’t content to feud in private, trading haymakers in the press, as in 2003 when Shaq announced Karl Malone and Gary Payton had come for him, not Kobe… whereupon Kobe had Jim Gray go on TV to call Shaq a fat malingerer who wasn’t really a leader or a friend, much less his surrogate older brother, having failed to call Kobe after that summer’s arrest (other than to leave a message on his machine).

From TheGreatMambino, Silver Screen & Roll: As hot as the criticism got last season on Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash, former head coach Mike Brown and VP of Player Personnel Jim Buss, no man was under more scrutiny than Mike D’Antoni. The mustachioed skipper had one of the most polarizing years in LA history, being blamed for a weak defense and ineffective rotations, but simultaneously being given a pass because of the rampant roster injuries. Even armed with 2 years and $8 million left on his contract, there’s still questions as to whether or not MDA would be leading the Lakers in November. Will Mike D’Antoni be the head coach for the beginning for the 2013-2014 season?

From Kurt Helin, Pro Basketball Talk: Kobe Bryant certainly hinted more than once he might hang it up after next season. However did you really think a guy that competitive would walk away? Now his Achilles tendon injury oddly makes it more likely he will return. Kobe does not want his final image on the court to be him slowed because of an injury. So he may come back for a season or two after his current contract expires next summer. That’s what he hinted at with Stephen A. Smith on ESPN Radio (as transcribed by Eric Pincus at the Los Angeles Times). The question was about Tim Duncan possibly getting a fifth ring.

From Michael C. Jones, Yahoo Sports: Los Angeles Lakers fans are easy for the rest of the country to hate. It’s not their fault — they are blessed with many enviable circumstances such as living great weather, rooting for a legendary team, watching superstars come and go every year and all of the ancillary things that come with living in the shadow of Hollywood. But in addition to their team consistently competing for titles, they are known for being notoriously late for games, lacking knowledge of the game’s nuances, sitting courtside at games expressionless for the sole purpose of being seen and chanting for two-dollar tacos during close, meaningful games. Why do some behave this way? It’s a question that deserves further exploration, and one prominent TV personality did just that for us all.

From Eric Pincus, LA Times: The offseason for the Lakers will hinge on a single choice by one free agent. Can the Lakers navigate through Dwight Howard’s free agency? “It’s the one decision we have to wait on,” said General Manager Mitch Kupchak. Whatever decision Howard makes will require a leap of faith. The Atlanta Hawks are one of the teams hoping to lure Chris Paul and Howard and the Clippers’ Chris Paul, although a letter to season ticket holders may be considered tampering. Kobe Bryant has been experiencing a taste of retirement as he slowly works his way back from a torn Achilles. On Friday, Bryant suggested he might play another year beyond his current contract.

In Morning Links
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Around The World (Wide Web): Dwight, Chuck-Kobe, Free Agency, Kobe’s Parents

Ryan Cole —  June 10, 2013 — 26 Comments

From Drew Garrison, Silver Screen & Roll: Who you got – Kobe Bryant or Tim Duncan? Hakeem Olajuwon or Dwight Howard? Robert Horry gave his opinion on both (spoiler: he also took into consideration if Duncan won his fifth championship, something we discussed here just a week ago) in an interview with HoopsHype.When asked who had a better career between Bryant and Duncan, Horry’s selection would be Kobe. From a general manager perspective Horry gives Bryant the nod because he’s going to “sell tickets”" and “put people in the arena”:

From Darren Rovell, ESPN: The Kobe Bryant memorabilia saga has ended with an apology from the Los Angeles Lakers guard’s parents and a settlement that allows less than 10 percent of the items originally intended for sale to be auctioned. Bryant and a company that was auctioning off the memorabilia reached a deal one week before the two sides were due to go to trial in New Jersey. The agreement allows the sale of six items, which Goldin Auctions president Ken Goldin told ESPN.com on Monday morning he is confident still can sell for more than $500,000 combined.Bryant’s parents, who had contracted with Goldin to sell the items, apologized in a written statement.

From Suki Thind, Lakers Nation: We all love/hate Charles Barkley for the same reason: he speaks his mind. I personally like Barkley and how he says what’s on his mind, whether he’s right or wrong. Most recently, Barkley had this to say with regards to Kobe Bryant and his injury on the Dan Patrick Show: “I think he can be a good player. That’s it. Is he going to be an All-Star? He’ll probably be an All-Star because the fans will vote him in. But as far as being a dominant player, that’s not going to happen.” With this, I have to strongly disagree. Barkley actually makes it very easy for me to disagree with him for a few reasons.

From Eric Pincus, LA Times: The Lakers have four potential restricted free agents this summer: Darius Morris, Robert Sacre, Andrew Goudelock and Devin Ebanks. Once the NBA Finals  between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat wrap up, the Lakers have until June 30 to tender qualifying offers to make any of the four restricted. The team is not likely to give an offer of $1.3 million to Ebanks, who underperformed in his third year with the Lakers. To restrict Morris, who progressed in his second season, the Lakers need to make an offer of $1.2 million. Goudelock, who was signed for the last couple of regular-season games after Kobe Bryant’s Achilles injury, would need a qualifying offer of $1.1 million. Center Robert Sacre’s offer would fall just under $1 million.

From Michael C. Jones, Yahoo Sports: The Dwight Howard saga wears on. As the July free agent frenzy that’s slated to take place when NBA free agency nears, the Houston Rockets are emerging as viable suitors to land the polarizing big man. Whether or not the Lakers are better off without him is a topic for another story (they’re not, by the way), but the fact is they have mortgaged their pride and their future on the fact that he will re-sign with them this summer and try to become the next great center in Laker-land.

 

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Friday Forum

Dave Murphy —  June 7, 2013 — 50 Comments

Change is a constant, we all know that. Athletes and eras exit stage left and new ones emerge. Jason Kidd recently announced his retirement as did Grant Hill. Members of the NBA class of ’94, their careers were intertwined. It’s a transitional time in many ways – the NBA finals have finally begun with the Tony Parker-led Spurs taking Game 1 in Miami. The draft comes next and then the long hot summer. Coaches are coming and going including the current COY. Another legend refuses to go quietly into the good night, using a book blitz to provoke copy from those who chronicle the sport, ranging from place mat sketches to a San Antonio Spurs prediction. Sports writing has been going through its own metamorphosis for quite some time and will no doubt continue.

There wasn’t always the internet. There was a time when ink-stained hands and visors were common catch-phrases. The term catch-phrase in of itself is just another definition of meme. Some of today’s readers and citizen journalists might not necessarily equate link-fueled breaking news with seminal influences but the connecting dots do exist in the ether. How far back to you want to go? Grantland Rice was known for his elegant prose and Four Horseman mythology while Jim Murray combined heart and biting humor in a career than began during World War II and lasted through the Michael Jordan era. Ring Lardner melded jazz age sensibilities with baseball bush league stories and Red Smith summed up the role of beat writer as succinctly as any when he famously opined that you simply sit down at a typewriter, open up your veins and bleed. If you’re still unsure of how the past connects the present, just ask David Halberstam.

The ‘Page 2′ school of sports journalism has always served as a way to bridge hard reporting and colorful commentary. Simply turn from the front banner headlines and enjoy a respite. T.J. Simers worked a variety of west coast beats before landing at the L.A. Times in 1990. His style often causes blowback from readers looking for more metric truths but there’s something to be said for using a shooting contest between your daughter and Dwight Howard as a framing device. Besides, it translates nicely to ancillary pieces. Perhaps no writer mixed things up as much as gonzo trailblazer Hunter S. Thompson. Late in life he wrote a rambling series of Hey Rube pieces for ESPN that are beyond facile description. Bill Simmons took over ESPN’s Page 2 a decade ago, bringing an accessible Sports Guy take to what had previously been some pretty wooly waters. Simmons’ career has continued to flourish and morph, including his current role as one of ESPN’s talking heads. Are there really six degrees of separation between Grantland Rice and Dwight Howard? I don’t know but it’s an easy segue back to a Lakers-centric topic of conversation.

It’s not just players and writers of course. There’s always the conflict of league-mandated interviews between sideline reporters and coaches and none so treacherous as those involving Coach Pop. Continuing the circular trend is a carousel of coaching updates spinning out from the George Karl ouster. On the odd-couple front comes this story about Jerry Sloan and the Birdman. Indeed, old versus new school debates seem to be anywhere and everywhere these days. Witness the analytics-driven conflict between Lionel Hollins and Memphis vice president of operations John Hollinger. The information highway is long and ever-winding, a morning’s search can lead from a superstar’s continued path back from a devastating injury to the connection between athletes, celebrities and money management.

You can continuing with colliding worlds and emerging stories as long as your index finger has the strength to click but at some point you have to pull yourself away from the luminescent screen. What did Marshall McLuhan used to say, the medium is the message? No, I’m not hyperlinking it. Go, have some lunch, take a walk. Something.

 

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