Renato Afonso is a long time reader, commenter, and friend of FB&G.. He is based in Portugal, played semi-pro hoops, and after that coached his alma mater for two years. He now passes his time in a veteran’s league while waiting the arrival of his first born. This is his inaugural post at FB&G. Welcome, Renato!
In today’s NBA there’s a lot of talking about spacing, ball sharing, efficiency and advanced statistics. Teams like the Rockets assume that feeding a big man in the low post is nonsense and the long two is absolutely forbidden, maximizing the number of shots at the rim, three pointers and free throws.
But this new way of thinking can only be applied when you have good three point shooters, guys that are able to get to the rim and good free throw shooters. Obviously, a free throw is always uncontested but one can argue that an open midrange jump shot may be the most effective shot an offense can get at any given moment. Sometimes the defense doesn’t allow you to finish at the rim or simply denies open three point shots and all you’re left with is what the defense gives you. When such thing happens there’s an obligation to convert those midrange jumpshots. With this, the best shot isn’t necessarily a three pointer but actually the available open shot. It goes without saying that long contested twos are obviously worse than long contested threes. This is also assuming average players and not statistical outliers like our own Kobe Bryant.
In the midst of these thoughts, I found myself completely absorbed by the Grizzlies-Warriors series that proved that there are different ways to run an offense, there are different ways to play proper defense and talent can be presented in several ways.
When looking at that series, we are reminded the Warriors are a known entity: a regular season juggernaut that likes to push the pace, get open threes in transition and can play small or big while running mostly a 4-1 offense. When you have shooters like they do and roster versatility you want to shoot as often as possible in transition and increase the number of possessions. It’s a matter of percentages. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have Mike Conley and Courtney Lee as their only respectable outside threats, so they’re obviously not trying to get that many three point shots in transition and try to slow the pace down. Fewer possessions meant fewer opportunities for the Warriors to do their thing, forcing them to play a more physical half-court game.
So, here’s the trick: slowing the game down isn’t achieved by taking 8 seconds the cross midcourt or just draining the shot clock every single possession. Any team can slow the game down by simply improving their transition defense and half-court defense. The Grizzlies superb transition defense can be explained not only by the defensive awareness of their players but also by what they call smash-mouth basketball.
First, you reduce the amount of turnovers by focusing on more post play even if it comes at cost of less dribble penetration and perimeter players finishing at the rim in half-court offense. By doing this, you would be ensuring field goal attempts that will result in short rebounds, if said shots are missed, and improve the team’s positioning to start the transition defense (which is perhaps the most important thing in basketball from a tactical standpoint). After a successful transition defense, comes the hardest part to any basketball player: half-court defense against elite athletes. Half-court defense is easier when you have a rim protector to cover up the mistakes of the perimeter players but that doesn’t mean that you can’t do it without one. If the wing players are lockdown defenders all you need from your big is solid post play defense and rebounding ability. Force the opponent into contested shots away from the rim and your defense will be effective enough.
But this is still only one side of the ball. After a superb transition defense, even better half-court defense and fighting for the loose ball, you still need to score points. Some say that you can’t score in today’s NBA with two bigs (or without the spacing provided by a stretch four as they call it). But I don’t agree with that. Here’s how you can do it while making Daryl Morey’s head explode…
Notice how the ball is fed to Gasol who can choose to shoot to the left or to the right. At that place, a skilled center is almost unstoppable if no help comes. The Warriors crash on Gasol and he gets the free throws but this simple motion is as effective as it can be. Conley is a threat, so his player can’t sag off him. Randolph is outside but he can hit the midrange shot so Bogut can’t just ignore him and prevent the entry pass to Gasol. Lee is probably the least dangerous man (most difficult pass due to the positioning of Randolph) but he’s still the best three point shooter and is on his favorite spot. Allen is on the baseline 8 feet from the basket, making his man the primary help defender. The Warriors, wisely, opt to foul Gasol. Even if they allowed a shot and it was missed, the Warriors would still have to fight for the defensive rebound with Gasol and wouldn’t be able to go on the fast break. Conley, Randolph and Lee are in great position to recover and Tony Allen can start harassing the ball handler. Could we do this with a Clarkson, Kobe, lockdown winger to be designated, Randle and Okafor?
These were three examples of a slightly less usual transition offense. Most teams tend to use the pick and roll the same way Mike D’Antoni likes it: on the strong side, from the wing to the middle with a rolling big man and with shooters in the corners and one at 45 degrees. The Grizzlies actually push the floor and Mike Conley uses the screen to go to towards the baseline. In the first clip Conley goes to the baseline and when the trap comes, he assists Koufos between the defenders. In the second one, the trap doesn’t come as hard, due to the previous play and Conley finishes on the other side. In the third clip, the trap is better but because all other Grizzlies players are above the three point line, the help comes late and Gasol finishes without opposition. What’s important here is that even if the rotation was on time, because Randolph is in the middle of the court, it should be a wing player trying to stop the center (Green’s decision to follow Gasol is a terrible one because Randolph is wide open and is the easiest passing lane). In this situation he could simply establish position in the low post and use his size and skill to get two easy points. Wouldn’t Kobe and Clarkson do this easily with Okafor or Ed Davis or any backup big?
And this is another simple play that leaves both Randolph and Gasol on the weak side with the ball. Randolph’s shot must be respected and Bogut can’t simply sag off him and deny the pass to Gasol. Gasol was immediately fouled but the result was the same. A skilled big man with an opportunity to do something from the low post because the best and most dangerous help defense is already neutralized (Bogut is above the free throw line and Gasol can see him clearly). Again, this possession would hardly result in a turnover or a long rebound, giving the attacking team time to get back on defense. Randle and Okafor could do this over and over…
You’re now saying to yourselves: Jahlil Okafor is not Marc Gasol, Julius Randle is not Zach Randolph, and Jordan Clarkson is not Mike Conley. Well, you’re right. They’re not. But you can emulate their style of play easily. Okafor is skilled in the low post, is only 19 and there’s a lot of room to improve. Just compare the stat lines of Okafor and Gasol this season:
The main difference is obviously the assist percentage but that’s one of the few things that centers actually become better at as they get older. And you should also note that rebounding is one of the few skills that translates well to the NBA. Okafor and Randle could be even more devastating than Randolph and Gasol due to the simple fact that Randle is quicker and probably has a better shooting motion than Randolph, allowing Okafor to have even more room to operate in the post. I would also like to note that Jordan Clarkson’s main problem is his ability to properly organize half-court sets. By pairing him with two skilled bigs, that responsibility will be shared allowing him to focus more on scoring. This is the first glimmer of hope for this team in more than two years and I’m genuinely excited with the idea of Kobe mentoring these three young men (if Okafor falls onto our lap). Aren’t you?
Tej says
Okafor doesn’t even run back. Fat and lazy. Only gonna get fatter. Pass on Towns at your own risk.
Calvin Chang says
Jahlil = rings. But Jahlil isn’t a rim-protector though. Not sure if he can become one with good coaching. Possible. I really hope you’re right – that Randle is groomed to become a PF, like a more agile and athletic Zach Randolph. And not for him to become a tweener SF like Anthony Randolph. Very good and informative article Renato. Love the detailed breakdown of plays. Plus video – excellent work.
the other Stephen says
Excellent post. Thanks, Renato. Also, congratulations on little bebe Afonso!
Wassupdun says
Brilliant write-up. I have been saying this since the Lakers got the pick, there is more than one way to run an offense! A two Bigs style can work and work well
Reader says
Great analysis of a modern NBA offense working without a 3pt shooting PF! This is heavily predicated on Randolph’s midrange game and his screening ability. I have seen videos of Randle working on his jumper and face-up game. Do you have any numbers on Randle’s midrange efficiency from his freshman year at Kentucky? While Randle might not make the offensive impact of Randolph for a few years, I see a lot of promise in his speed and agility (a big deficiency for Randolph that was targeted by the Warriors with 1/4 PnRs) for some much-needed transitional impact along with Clarkson. With the way the draft is lining up, it certainly seems that the 3&D winger is our greatest priority. Anyways, thank you for inspiring some fun thoughts on the Lakers after the dark season.
Todd says
I’m baffled by all the talk on the previous thread about tanking. The Lakers won’t tank next season. They’ll have too much talent to do that. Keeping the pick and actually being in a position to get either of the two elite bigs in the draft is a trajectory changing event for the franchise. ‘Hope’ has replaced ‘Confusion’ as the guideword for the Lakers.
Do I expect the Lakers to make the playoffs – no far from it. I don’t see how we improve more than 10 games in the standings. However, the difference from last year will be far greater than those few additioanl wins. Last season we played with a roster that carried very few future building blocks. This roster will have Clarkson/Randle/#2 Pick/#27 Pick and possibly a free agent signing.
The team will start its journey back to competition this season. And if we play the kids and we only win 30 games, but the kids show they belong, there won’t be many complaints from fans.
The last test for the Lakers is who they pursue in free agency. If they target 30 year olds with lots of mileage and small windows I’ll know we aren’t out of the woods. However, if they pursue young restricted or unrestricted free agents then I’ll know we are on the right path.
Everyone knows that I am not a fan of Jim, so I am relieved to see Mitch out in front of the media. I feel so much more confident about the future when he’s representing the team. Mitch is the one who needs to be seen by rival execs and player agents as running the show. Mitch needs to lead the way.
Mikey K. says
Calvin: Respectfully, PLEASE STOP with the Julius Randle – Anthony Randolph comparisons. They are NOTHING alike. NOTHING. Put it this way, Zach Randolph is a terrible comparison because he is a long armed, big bottomed, powerhouse in the post, whereas Julius is a super-fleet footer, upper body dominant, ball handling, quick power wing… with short arms. So, all of the negative focus on Randle’s length is misplaced because his game is primarily a driving vs. mid-range penetration game (with some rebounding hustle), and Zach could never play that game, and doesn’t need to do so.
But the inaccuracy of the Julius-Zach comparison PALES in comparison to Anthony Randolph who is MUCH TALLER AND LONGER THAN EITHER Julius or Zach (7’3″ wingspan), MUCH skinnier and weaker, and much more of a versatile jack of all trades, master of none guy. I was a fan of Anthony for years, but he just couldn’t put together a consistent and reliable game with all of that talent. So, comparing Julius to Zach makes no sense unless Julius grows an inch an a half, his arms grow about 3 inches each, he loses 25 pounds while growing, he loses his focus and aggression and wing-based attacking game, and becomes a surprising, though inconsistent post and face up defender.
Randle is the homeless man’s LeBron, meaning a big, powerful, quick, attacking wing, but worse in every way. But that’s not all bad, because you can be a homeless man’s LeBron, and still bully weaker wing defenders with constant drives, offset by a face up J, and put up 15-18 ppg, 6 boards and 3 assists. Or even more.
Please don’t compare him to Anthony Randolph. It is a wildly baseless comparison.
Mikey K. says
TEJ: Thanks for your conclusory statements about Okafor and Towns. Now for a reality check. Okafor is only going to get fatter ? He already lost 20 pounds. Guess you didn’t see him at the draft or read about it. Lazy ? While he was more focused on the offensive end, he wasn’t lazy on that end. Thirdly, pass of Towns at your own risk ? This is a LAKERS blog. There is NO chance that Towns falls to # 2 and the Lakers pass on him. None.
Other than that, you were spot on with the assessment.
rr says
Great post…but ISTM that most concerns about Okafor center on his D, not his O.
Calvin Chang says
Mikey: I compare Randle to ZBo and Anthony Randolph mainly because they’re lefties and have similar shooting forms. I’m not comparing their physical attributes, but more their style of play on a broad level. ZBo being a lefty power 4 who can back opponents down or hit outside set shots. Anthony Randolph being an agile jack-of-all-trades, master of none player. At this point, we have no idea what Randle’s game is going to be like in the pros. What style is he going to play to be effective?
Corey says
Great post, first off. I like the idea of running a high low offense with Randle and Okafor quite a bit. If Randle continues to develop his handle I think it may be possible to run a 4-5 pnr a few times a game depending on the shooters the lakers can acquire. I also think, if coached up right, that Okafor could become a Roy Hibbert type defender. Laying back on pnr’s and simply using intelligence and verticality to protect the rim. I mean, Okafor cant possibly be less athletic than Hibbert.
Calvin Chang says
True – Randle’s style in the last summer league was the “homeless Lebron” that you described – rampaging power wing who attacks the basket and draws fouls. But is that the style that he’s going to settle into? How does that translate to a regular NBA game where you have Kobe, Clarkson, and maybe Okafor in Byron’s Princeton offense? Is Randle going to have the most usage rate? Will he be effective quarterbacking the team? If he lost 20 lbs and is being groomed to play SF, doesn’t he lose some of that power and size advantage that he had playing homeless Lebron style? In that case, then his game may become nebulous – jack of all trades, similar to Anthony Randolph. To succeed in the NBA, a player has to develop an identity – a consistent style. Anthony Randolph never developed that. That’s why I don’t want Randle to become an Anthony Randolph where he becomes a jack of all trades, master of none.
Calvin Chang says
Final note about Anthony Randolph – he’s only 25! If he can develop an identity for his game, get some mental focus and be consistent, it’s not too late for him to be an effective player in the NBA. He certainly has the tools, length and agility. I’d give him a shot on a cheap contract.
Aaron says
rr,
I think I’m the only one who doesn’t think he can be a very good low post scorer in the NBA.
drew says
I just think that we can analyze this all we want, but the facts remain.
-Randel is a 4, not a 3 (odom and Josh Smith are the cautionary takes to this)
-The Lakers are best suited going after the remaining big (oakafor or towns)
-tanking is just not an option. (pick is protected top 3 only)
-Marc Gasol, who is the worlds most underrated first teamer, needs to be top priority for the lakers this offseason in free agency.
bryan S. says
Renato: Interesting and thoughtful post. Honestly, I’m not a big fan of what you are suggesting, even though it is a way to win. Just not sure it brings championships in today’s game. The four teams still standing are the top four in 3 point attempts across the league. What I take from your post is that a skilled offensive center can still be the fulcrum of a winning offense. To that point, if you are going to play inside out, it is imperative to have great shooting from the wings. Too bad for Memphis that they do not. It killed them against the Warriors.
What I like to think about in terms of Okafor’s potential, is to consider the development of Marc Gasol’s defensive game. Far from an elite athlete, Gasol uses his length, anticipation,timing and angles to disrupt/block shots. Brains and skills can go a long way towards minimizing weaknesses. Okafor has both, plus great length. If Towns is taken first, I think the Lakers envision playing Okafor (or any center) with a stretch four. Byron Scott likes the floor spacing it brings. They’ve invested in developing Ryan Kelly and in improving Randle’s shooting range. This can work if the Lakers are able to develop Okafor defensively, using the Marc Gasol blueprint.
KenOak says
Welcome Renato and congratulations on the incoming baby!
If Towns falls to second, then I believe the Lakers will snatch him up with zero hesitation. If Okafor falls to second, then they may think about someone else. Just a hunch.
Mikey K. says
Calvin: WOW ! Still only 25.. that blows my mind. But I think he is what he is after 7-8 years of pro-play.
Randle wasn’t just a big attacking wing in summer league, that’s what he was great at in college and before. If you look at HOW he plays, it’s usually left handed drives, with an awesome spin move to the left, offset by an occasional decent face up jumper, and really active shuffle-feet when scrumming for boards.
Can’t see someone of his size and limited lengths and mediocre hops become a post-scorer, and he’s not a super playmaking oriented guard type, so that really doesn’t leave much other direction for Randle to go.
His PRIMARY need is to develop his right hand on his drives and dribbling. If he does that alone, he’ll be a successful scorer in the league, given what he already has. If his face up J gets stronger, then even more power to him. Can he be a decent defender ? He’s strong and has quick, quick feet… Can he be a playmaking wing ? A bit. But he’s a wing attacker, I think. And I can’t see that changing. Which, again, isn’t a bad thing at all.
Calvin Chang says
Mikey: How do you envision Randle’s game in Byron’s offense? From what I’ve seen of Julius’ game at UK, he likes to get the ball, face up, shoot the mid-range if given space, or attack and overpower opponents. Will he be doing the same thing in the pros? We know he likes to go coast-to-coast when he gets a rebound. But in a slow-down half-court set, will he get the space he needs? One thing I’d like to see him improve is his passing. Opponents will scout him and anticipate him going left when he attacks. It will be good if he learns to read the defense when they collapse on him and find an open teammate. My concern is: If he plays SF, he’ll have to guard quicker slashers like Batum, Ariza, KD, Parsons, Hayward. On offense, if he operates from 18-ft and in as the SF, how will that work in terms of spacing? You’ll need to have a stretch 4 or 5, otherwise the lane gets too congested. Kobe himself like to play in the mid-post.
bryan S. says
rr: URKM with the acronyms. (I just made that one up.)
“Homeless LeBron”–sign of the times. In the good old days it was enough to be a “poor man’s Lebron.” But since “poor” is about a third of the population now, you have to hit the bottom rung to make the point.
Mikey K: Good posts. FACT CHECK THO: Julius Randle max vert at combine 35.5 in (jumped higher in his Lakers workout), wingspan: 7 ft. , both per NBA.com. HARDLY “mediocre.”
Craig W. says
Thanks Renato,
Once your original impression is taken it would seem it is hard to change anything. That is what I read into some of the comments about 1) the offense described and 2) Julius Randle.
If we ran an offense like this it would only be part of our offense – and probably only when certain combinations of players were on the floor. We all recognize that the NBA is a copy-cat league, but it is also true that really good teams are versatile and don’t limit themselves to only one way to play.
Julius Randle is only 19 and played only one year at Kentucky. This is important to note because that coach doesn’t allow his players to vary much outside his system. He takes what works, focuses you, and asks you to remain within that focus. One-year players don’t get a chance to show a lot of versatility. Randle may or may not be able to expand his game, but that is not something that we can know yet. Since he is a Laker, how about we let him show us how he works on his game and improves his physical condition? After that we can make our judgments.
Patrick says
If you can get a rim protector in the draft and not FA than that’s the best case scenario. Deandre Jordan is athletic, can rebound, block shots and he’ll demand $100 m next year. If you can get KAT than sign Kevin Love and a SF like Carroll or Danny Green than you have a good lineup. Clarkson, Kobe, Danny Green, Love, KAT. When Kobes contract go off the books, then go after Kevin Durant. Championship team.
Chibi says
Demarre Carroll’s hair looks like a damn lobster.
minorthreatt says
Wait until Royce Webb and the rest of the folks at Truehoop find out about The Veto. They’re going to be so excited! http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/73132/how-the-nba-distributes-talent-and-stokes-desire
Don Ford says
Love seeing Renato post generally, plus the post itself is interesting. Nice to see FB&G talking x & o about our Lakers with some dash of optimism.
J C says
Nice work Renato.
My take – it’s a bit premature to compare Randle to anyone – he played one year of college and then one NBA game before falling apart. Let’s see is he can shed his “Mr. Glass” impersonation and start building a resume. Then decide if he’s a 3 or a 4, etc.
For me, the lottery was one of those “where were you” moments – I was driving in freeway traffic listening on the radio and feeling giddy when we made it into the top 5, and like, overjoyed when we snuck into the #2 spot.
I couldn’t help feeling like the sun had just burst through the clouds. How funny is it to react so emotionally to a ping pong ball? Ha! I’m such a nerd.
I’m pretty sure the Lakers will nail this pick – they’ll get Towns – or Okafor will perform well – or they’ll trade him for Cousins.
In FA, I would write the biggest Poison Pill contract (heavy first year $) that I could for Jimmy Butler and see if Chicago matches.
Kobe, Butler, Clarkson, Randle, our #2/or Cousins. That’s a solid squad (if salary cap compliant).
Ko says
Forget about Cousins. Not happening. Says my wife’s Serbian cousin. And to think my wife tried to name our son 10 years ago Vlade.
Sac offering him max.
Slappy says
“This is the first glimmer of hope for this team in more than two years and I’m genuinely excited with the idea of Kobe mentoring these three young men (if Okafor falls onto our lap).”
Works either way. To borrow from Mitch, clearly, one of two bigs. Don’t otherwise understand the Okafor and Randle concern on the O end. As I’ve said before, one can always do the double low post thing. And with those two it works better, as Randle is left-hand dominant, so he’s on the right side, while the right-hand dominant Okafor is on the left side. Can do the same with Towns. Also puts the 2 bigs into better O rebounding position). One of the ways one prevents transition in the first instance. And, Julius, please see Kareem re the hook.
Oh, and for how effective bigs were and are, simply recall the 3 second rule and the lane widening to 12 feet. Didn’t always have those. But since bigs dominated down low….
Then add 3 souls who can bury the 3 ball, with 1 also able to crash the boards. And so Renato’s ecstatic, make the 3 also 1 who can stop the PG penetration and the other 2 lock-down wing defenders.
And as Fish showed with Shaq and then Pau/Bynum, you don’t really need to be all that as a PG if you have a big. Since the big(s) help initiate the offense. And the good thing about both bigs available is that neither is afraid to pass the ball out when need be.
So while I want Towns, I won’t shed any tears if its Okafor.
Now well and truly lastly, since some posit lineups:
C – Upshaw, Towns
PF – Towns, Randle
SF – Randle, Young
SG – Kobe, Young
PF – Clarkson, whoever
The long term would be:
C – Upshaw/Towns
PF – Towns/Randle
SF – Durant/Randle
SG – Whoever/Clarkson
PG – Westbrook, Clarkson
Wouldn’t exactly have that 1st and 2nd unit thing, as Randle sucks up all the minutes at PF/SF that Towns and Durant don’t. A man can dream, right? And so someone here is happy, perhaps, maybe turns out the 2nd rounder is that Vaughn fellow from UNLV and maybe he becomes all that. So pencil him in at SG. In other words, if all goes well, this draft could go incredibly well.
J C says
Hello Ko,
No wonder your son’s name is Kobe!
Good choice 🙂
Whom do you prefer?
Okafor or Towns?
R says
I don’t understand why people keep “pencilling” Kobe into the lineup like he’s going to be able to contribute in some meaningful way.
George Best says
If you can’t get Towns, take Russell. Okafor is not elite.
minorthreatt says
Surprised there’s not more speculation about Mitch’s statement on Kobe’s behalf. You would have to assume it was fully vetted, but viewed in a certain context, it reads a lot like, “Thanks for the memories, but we’re probably moving on. If you wanna hang around on a midlevelish deal as a mentor/contributor after this year, then maybe we can talk next summer.” None of which, I would add, is wrong or indefensible. But the tea leaves would suggest it casts doubt on, say, chasing a Kobe fave like Rondo.
Baylor Fan says
Great write up and analysis Renato. Thanks for taking the time to contribute. It sounds like either of the two bigs would be solid foundation for the next competitive Lakers team. Heisler who has covered the Lakers for years thinks they will also give Mudiay a close look. He could give the Lakers a dynamic guard who is strong on both ends of the court.
grumpy says
George Best, I actually find that Russell and Okafor have similar attributes. Both are not hugely athletic, but have great offensive games. Both are not good defenders, but have the tools to become solid ones (they both have great size and wingspan for their respective positions).
I like Russell a lot, but it’s a lot easier to find good guards than big men.
Chris J says
minorthreatt — I ripped that TrueHoop article in the last string. In terms of his take on the Lakers and Knicks and the process being unfair, that clown who wrote that puts an argument together as well as a common 3-year-old.
Easily the most stupid column I’ve seen there in years, and surprisingly it didn’t even have the Henry Abbott byline, which is even more amazing. A new tool there has lowered the TrueHoop bar.
the other Stephen says
All I really need to know about Okafor is right here: http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/5/23/8648587/watch-jahlil-okafor-cross-up-his-puppy-over-and-over
Anonymous says
BTW, in the headline Okafor’s name is a typo–spelled “Jahil.” Not a big deal, but given that a lot of people read this site, maybe something to fix if it easy to do so
J C says
R
Kobe is still a projected starter.
Of course one knows how long he’ll remain healthy.
But until further notice, he’s in the lineup as our 2 guard, and there still aren’t many better.
In a perfect world, he has a good year and is part of a resurging franchise.
rr says
1137 am is me.
it’s instead of it at 1137
minorthreatt says
Chris J: Agreed! He didn’t bother to develop his argument, which is probably a good thing, as it could only have gotten more ludicrous. But he seems to be arguing that if a big-market team is bad enough to be in the lottery, they should be penalized by having fewer ping-pong balls, or something? Just the worst kind of sports socialism.
KBJ says
Lakers should go with Towns, if they can. He is far more athletic and better at defense than Okafor. His versatility is key as Lakers could pair him up with Marc Gasol or Kevin Love as Towns can play both pf and center. He only played 21 minutes at Kentucky. Give him more minutes and he will blossom.
Robert says
Todd: I am with you on much of your post. It is great that we moved up in the lottery (my man Byron); It is hard to imagine us being bad enough to keep the pick next year, so the tanking discussion is overblown; and we will probably win 10-15 more games next year, but not make the playoffs (it is early + pending what we do in free agency, but that is baking in an average result). Of course I also agree on Mitch making the decisions rather than Jim. All of that said, let’s not get giddy until we see some of those decisions (big ones and difficult ones – pay off). The pick is not one of those. Everyone knows the deal there. Take whichever one of the bigs is available. I am not going to call Mitch a genius for that. Now if he parlays it into some amazing deal (a positive one) or if he does something amazing with our other pick, then he will get big credit. Conversely, if we trade the picks or sign people in FA who are old and overpaid, then that could work the other way. I do not think you are one who is giving the Lakers credit for a “stealth tank”. Kobe has this right – we stank this year – hence we get the pick. At this point, the only feather in the cap for the last several years is Clarkson. Hitting the lottery is a good break, just like the VETO was a very bad break. Neither were under the full control of the FO. It is based on the moves they are in control of upon which we need to evaluate them.
Craig W: I am going to give you credit for sticking to your guns. You have said the Lakers were not going to tank, and you are now saying they fell into the tank due to injuries and other circumstance – which I agree with. We all know we tanked in the end with some of our rotations, but this was not some ingenious plan from the beginning as others are claiming.
Aaron: While I disagree that the tank was planned, you and I have always agreed that a multi year tank is a valid strategy. And you have also been very consistent – obviously : )
Others: Some of you predicted great things for the Lakers last summer (playoffs, better than expected, etc), and now have switched over to saying it was all a stealth tank. Not sure what I can say to that.
Tra says
I like Russell a lot, but it’s a lot easier to find good guards than big men.
—
Exactly ..
And that’s why whether it’s KAT or Okafor, the organization and fanbase should be ecstatic in regards to the position that we’ve found ourselves in. Nowadays, it seems as if there’s a good PG – or two – on every team. Also, although not the purest of PG’s by any stretch of the imagination – being that it’s a position that he’s still learning – Clarkson is a solid starting/beginning point. Which is something that I definitely can’t say when looking at our bigs from last season.
While I would prefer KAT because he looks to be, at this point, the better rim protector – which is probably the most important attribute that a big can bring to the table in today’s NBA – if the *consolation* prize is Okafor, I wouldn’t be upset at all.
barry_g says
Thx, Renato! Very much appreciate your insight; looking forward to hopefully seeing more FB&G posts from you in the future.
Seems like many are responding to the question of Okafor vs. Towns, but the real question appears to be Okafor vs. Russell/Porzingis/Mudiay. I’m encouraged by Okafor’s weight drop; reflects positively on his maturity and work ethic. An actual interesting comp that came to my mind for Okafor was Harden – not position-wise, but from the perspective of offensive potential possibly being so great as to more than offset the poor defensive potential (not saying either are necessarily true – very curious to see how everyone’s workouts go – but that’s all the insight we have to work with for the time being). A great two-way player would be nice to draft, but the total package/potential needs to be considered.
minorthreatt says
Sounds like KAT is saying all the right things about the Wolves, cold weather, etc. Can’t put much stock in it yet, but for Minny, that’s better than the alternative. I’d prefer him, like most folks here, but the one thing I don’t think the Lakers do is flip the pick, for Boogie or whomever.
A potential franchise player AND immediate contributor on a rookie deal is such a rare thing that it’s almost impossible to get equal value for a pick that could provide it — mostly because you have to add other assets with the pick. Cleveland could afford to do that for Love. I don’t think we can.
Aaron says
Renato,
Just read your bio. From Portugal? Then I’m guessing the only thing we can agree on in sport is… Ronaldo is better than Messi. Messi is a system player that has never played week in and week out in a top league and has always struggled while playing with Argentina out of the Barcelona system. And what about defense!!?? Messi is too small to be even an adequate defender. But I will say after a few years that he looked like he lost a step Messi seems to have gotten his speed and quickness back.
Joel says
Aaron:
Please stick to basketball, thanks. 🙂
Ko says
Jc
Feel like Towns is more versatile offensively. Feel like team will need scoring addition from him. Lot depends on who else they sign. I could see a front line of Randel, Towns and Love being darn good. Word is his agents are letting Minn know not to draft him. Either way though the team will be much better next year.
Aaron says
Joel,
That’s just too easy for me 😉 I need to try somethig where I can be wrong sometimes. I felt like Jordan after his first three peat. I just couldn’t find any challenges with basketball. He tried baseball and I’m trying “football”. It’s very humbling.
Baylor Fan says
“it’s a lot easier to find good guards than big men”
That statement cuts both ways. The real question is which is more important in today’s NBA? Right now, the Lakers have neither. Clarkson would have to improve his defense by leaps and bounds to be an average PG. Kobe’s days of domination have been over and now the question has become how long will he last? Kupchak et al. are going to have to determine if one of the guards is going to become one of the best in the NBA. If you really think big men are that important then why is Golden State up 2-0 over Houston? Howard has been the best center in the playoffs and is way better than Bogut. Harden and Curry just about cancel each other out in terms of offense and Harden’s defense has improved from non-existent. Golden State compensates the lack of a star big man with quality players at the other positions. If either Russel or Mudiay is a transcendent player, then maybe the Lakers would be better taking a guard. The tryouts will be interesting since I would not be surprised if Kobe helps test their defensive chops.
R says
The Warriors success doesn’t prove big men are irrelevant. And sure, if a Micheal Jordan level wing is available he should go first in this or nearly any draft in league history. I’m pretty sure Russell nor Mudiay ain’t even close.
Aaron says
Let me just quickly say why I love teams who have good defensive players at all five spots. Yes the Cavs are the Cavs because of LeBron but they are also so good right now without Irving and Love because they are without Irving and Love. On defense they have no weaknesses anywhere on the floor which is big against teams like the Hawks and Warriors who use all five guys and do so to a large extent because most teams don’t have five good defenders on the floor. So you can attack the weak link or weak links. You can’t attack the Cavs anywhere right now.
arliepro says
So when do the predraft workouts begin? Hope Kobe has recovered enough to be involved in some way.
Craig W. says
Not sure why Kobe couldn’t attend the pre-draft workouts if the front office desired he be there.
Craig W. says
I think the question of Curry vs Harden was pretty conclusively settled tonight. Sure, Golden State has a better defense, but Houston is supposed to be fairly good in that area. You can defend Harden, but how do you defend Curry? – on both ends?
Fern says
Can’t watch games but i catched Steph Curry boxing out and getting an offensive rebound from Dwight, im so glad he decided to go to Houston in hindsight lol, soft as charming as Kobe would say lol, if he stayed we would be a middle of the road team cap strapped and going nowhere, i cant believe im saying this but i think the Dubs are going to win it all, the Cavs are going to the Finals with the East being what it is, bit i think the Warriors are on a mission and i would love for Lebron to lose his 4 Finals in 6 tries.Weird seeing the dubs heading there
Fern says
@Craig, i think is safe to say that Houston defense is vastly overrated. The entire team is overrated, im glad they are getting exposed.
grumpy says
Baylor Fan, I have to agree with R here. We can’t dismiss the importance of big men because of one series.
But the point is that good big men are scarce, not more impactful than guards. With the excess of good to great guards in the league, the cost of getting one via free agency, I would argue, is easier and less costly than trying to fill a position where there is a scarcity of talent to begin with. That’s why 9/10 times, if the talent is about equal, it’s better to go big over small.
Of course if the front office believes Russell or Mudiay clearly have more talent, then they should pick one of them. However, based on the scouting reports and the videos I’ve seen, I don’t believe this to be the case.
Joel says
I don’t like Houston at all, but I will say in their defence that Patrick Beverley is a HUGE loss for them in this series. Asking a pair of senior citizens to guard Steph Curry is just unfair.
On the other hand, their effort and focus has been far too erratic in these playoffs. They got away with it against Dallas (who were imploding) and the Clippers (who were the Clippers) but this Warriors team is a different animal.
Renato Afonso says
Thank you all for your words. I think Barry said it best when he stated that this isn’t KAT vs. Okafor. It’s Okafor vs. everyone else because he’s perceived as a liability on defense and people actually consider that we should pick someone else. This post tries to show that a good offense can translate into good transition defense and that there are no sure ways to win. Okafor fits a need (who doesn’t) and he’s already so polished at a young age that he can become key cog in a very good team if he works hard for it. KAT is also a safe bet, but easier to see what is strengths are…
BigCitySid says
– @ R, “I don’t understand why people keep “pencilling” Kobe into the lineup like he’s going to be able to contribute in some meaningful way.” I’m w/ you.
– Darius, I was listening to The Gerald and Howie C show on NBA Radio yesterday morning. Their producer, Eddie Murphy (not the Eddie Murphy), spoke about a reported trade being planned between the Knicks and the Lakers that I would absolutely HATE…but some here would love. Won’t go into details because I don’t want my post to be erased. My questions:
* Do you listen to NBA radio?
* Do you consider them (overall) a reliable source?
* Have you heard ANYTHING about this crazy trade?
BigCitySid says
– I’ve been watching ball for a long time, since ’65. I don’t ever recall seeing a backcourt with the overall skill set, one thru five, of this years Warriors. Curry, Thompson, Livingston, Iggy, & Barbosa. They complement each other so well. Hats off to them, their coach, and their GM. Simply the most effective five man backcourt rotation I’ve ever seen.
Craig W. says
Lebron can guard anyone, 1 through 5, but how do you guard the #4 backcourt player who comes in and dominates? At 6’7″ yet?
pat oslon says
Great read, thanks for the insight Ren.
Warren Wee Lim says
Love the post Renato. I do have something to apologize to your for, its that I’ve always read your last name Alfonso.
Onto the topic…
The argument of Towns vs Okafor will be one of Ewing and Olajuwon proportions. That’s how I feel. And although Ewing never beat Hakeem he was a pretty good player on his own right. I mean c’mon if Okafor became half of Ewing this team is headed the right way.
As early as this, we do have four probable starters: Clarkson, Bryant, Randle and Okafor. From that alone its obvious what the team needs and its a lock-down defender at the 3. Corey Brewer fit the bill? Demarre Carroll? DmC is still my top choice since we don’t have to hit a homerun with the 3, and we need to make atleast 2 teams with cap space.
Like I mentioned in the last post, we could also make use of the 27th pick and 34th pick. These two picks can give us specialists or crap-shoots.
If you guys think that Julius Randle is Zach Randolph, you’d be disappointed. I would give you a cross between Lamar Odom and Draymond Green less the 3pt shot. But that will come.
Aaron says
Guards v Big Men:
The basket is ten feet high. Big men are always more important. Especially on defense. Three of the four teams playing right now have good to very good defensive Centers. If Dwight didn’t have back surgery instead of just being a good defender he would still be a great defender and Houston would be going to the finals. Although that’s also because you would be able to throw him the ball in the low post again.
Don’t mistake the lack of good big men for the lack of need for good big men.
J C says
Curry boxing out Dwight and snaring that rebound — and then seeing Dwight flail idiotically at him — was the quintessential moment of the series.
It highlighted plainly the stark contrast between heart and IQ vs size, strength and even sheer athleticism.
Curry simply captures the things I love about hoops. Howard just makes me groan.
rr says
. The entire team is overrated, im glad they are getting exposed.
—
They are losing in the WCF to a team that was 1st in ORTG, 2nd in DRTG, won 67 games and is the only injury-free team left in the playoffs. In the previous round, they became the 9th team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 deficit. So…while Howard and Harden have their faults, this isn’t really the best time to be calling them out as being soft or as getting exposed.
Neither team that has lost Dwight Howard has been close to being competitive since his departure, which fits in with the historical pattern that I detailed when Howard walked: lose/trade an All-Star big in mid-career, and you are probably headed for a whole lot of losses in the short-term.
Will the Lakers come out ahead long-term? Sure, it’s possible. Maybe Randle/Clarkson/#2 pick are all going to be really good and that will lead to a FA bonanza. But the reality is that Lakers fans–even Lakers fans who are senior citizens and have rooted for the team since the time of West and Baylor–have never really rooted for a team in the position that this one is in and IMO many don’t realize to an extent that getting back to relevance, especially with 2 #1 picks still ticketed out of town from the Nash/Howard deals, is going to be very tough.
Sald0gg says
I believe there are 3 paths for the Lakers this summer and they depend on who falls into our lap at #2.
Path 1: The dream scenario
Minny takes Okafor allowing Towns to drop to us at #2 in which case we throw every recruiting pitch we can at Marc Gasol & Demarre Carroll to form probably the best defensive front-line in the NBA. Re-sign Ed Davis, have either Justin Anderson or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson fall to us at 27 and Rashad Vaughn at 34. Sign a veteran PG to mentor Clarkson and play 15 MPG. Finally do EVERYTHING we can to move Nick Young. What a terrible signing I knew he’d be.
Lineup:
Marc/Towns/Davis
Towns/Randle/Davis
Carroll/Rondae (or Anderson)
Kobe/Vaughn
Clarkson/Vet
Emergency guys: Kelly, Sacre, maybe sign a Harrison twin if undrafted.
Path 2: the fallback
Minny takes Towns. We draft Okafor and try to sign Love to make a KILLER inside-outside forward duo. No Carroll because Randle would have to play some minutes at SF. Draft Upshaw at 27 and Vaughn at 34. Vet PG etc.
lineup:
Okafor/Upshaw/Ed
Love/Randle/Ed
Randle/FA signing (Gerald Green?)
Kobe/Vaughn
Clarkson/Vet
Plan 3: The wildcard
Minny takes Towns. We take a guard. Gun hard for Marc & Carroll, grab Upshaw and hope Vaughn falls. Bring back Ed, maybe grab Gerald Green.
Marc/Upshaw/Ed
Randle/Ed
Carroll/Green
Kobe/Clarkson/Vaughn
Mudiay or Russell/Clarkson
I actually prefer plan 3 to plan 2 but would be intrigued by the inside-outside potential of Okafor and Love (who’s getting KILLED this summer mostly undeservedly so) but that defense would be BAD. I don’t believe Okafor and Marc would work.
Baylor Fan says
Curry was on fire last night and looked to make amends for his sloppy play in game 2. He did make an amazing play to strip the ball from Harden to close out the game but he could easily have been a goat for turning the ball over on lazy passes. Last night’s rebound against Howard was a signature play for the hustle but was very reckless. Curry pinned Howard’s right arm and Dwight elected to let the referee call it and not do anything. He could have dislocated Curry’s shoulder by lifting up his pinned arm. Howard was rightfully stunned that nothing was called. I am sure McHale has had a chat with Howard about letting a guard front him like that. I will be very surprised if Curry does not get accidentally knocked down in the first half of the next game.
Baylor Fan says
“Kent Bazemore replaces Kyle Korver in Hawks’ Game 3 starting lineup”. The Hawks are desperate but this is the type of headline that the Lakers FO does not want to see. Bazemore was a solid defender last year, could drive to the basket, and occasionally hit the corner 3. He seemed like a prime player to develop. It is good to see him get a chance with Atlanta but it does look like an opportunity lost.
rr says
Actually GS was 1st in D and second in O. My bad.
Aaron says
rr,
Dwight Howard was not selected to the All Star team this year and the voting was done by the coaches and fans before he went down with his knee injury.
Aaron says
…so did the Lakers lose an All Star big man? It doesn’t look like it going forward.
Robert says
Aaron: Yes they did. DH made the All Star Team in 2014. Pau was named as an All Star and a 2nd Team All NBA in 2015.
rr says
…so did the Lakers lose an All Star big man?
—
He was all-NBA second team in 2014. Didn’t make it this year since he missed some time. Has played well in post-season.
But, it doesn’t matter how you spin it. Howard’s team is in the WCF, and the Lakers have gone 48-116 since he left. The counterarguments about the team being better off long-term come back to Stealth Tank and Lakers Exceptionalism, which are pretty much Bigfoot and the Great Pumpkin, until we see Anthony Davis holding up the jersey at Staples.
rr says
And, yes, you can add in Pau to the earlier point about Howard although the point is not as strong/direct.
Craig W. says
Are the Lakers better off without Dwight Howard? IMO – probably, but they certainly will not win as many games as they would have if he were here. Howard is a key element of the Houston team, but he is not a leader. He would have been required to be a leader with the Lakers and that is the nub of the problem with his staying here.
However you want to spin it, Dwight Howard was not a fit with the Los Angeles Lakers. Having said that, criticisms can be leveled that we didn’t simply ‘dump’ him for draft picks, regardless that we wouldn’t have gotten nearly equal value. The things we can’t know is what offers the Lakers fielded for both Dwight and Pau in their last year’s here. It is quite possible the front office would have taken the same amount of ‘flack’ if they had been able to trade them. It is also possible the offers were complete jokes and couldn’t have been accepted, as they would have reduced the club to a simple laughing-stock – something the ESPN boys would like you to believe anyway, with all the ‘play with Kobe’ talk.
Robert says
BCS/R: The issue here is that if Kobe stays reasonably healthy – he will be our leading scorer and will dominate the ball. If not – someone else will need to be. Not a good way to go into the year – planning wise. With regard to your Kobe pessimism: Who is going to significantly contribute? Clarkson will, but after that, your next two names are two guys who have a combined 5 minutes in the NBA.
rr says
However you want to spin it, Dwight Howard was not a fit with the Los Angeles Lakers.
—
I am not spinning a thing. I am simply stating the facts:
1. Most teams that lose a premiere big mid-career crater on the floor, at least short-term.
2. The 2014 and 2015 Lakers are another data point in that pattern.
3. Howard’s current team is successful, having won 110 games in two years and having advanced to a conference finals with him at center.
4. Since he left, the Lakers have fielded the two worst teams in the history of the franchise.
5. There is no guarantee that his departure will create a scenario in which the Lakers get someone who is better than he is in the near-term, which is, essentially, what your argument comes down to.
Obviously, there are many reasons for the Lakers’ collapse. Howard’s departure is clearly one one of the big ones.
Also, speaking of spin, you should note that I neither mentioned, nor blamed, the FO, nor did I mention ESPN. Howard made it very clear himself that he didn’t want to play either with Kobe or for Mike D’Antoni, but I think, as I have said, Howard mostly wanted to play on a team with another star on his timeline that could compete. That is where he fits. The Lakers didn’t have those things.
Mid-Wilshire says
Renato,
Excellent article. Fine insights all the way around. I look forward to reading more from you.
The main take-away from Renato’s piece is that there is more than one way to play basketball, more than one way to win. In today’s NBA there is a huge enfatuation with shooting 3s and spacing the floor. Can teams be successful doing this? Obviously. Just look at the results.
But the philosophy of spacing the floor and shooting from long-range is not sacred. There are other ways to be successful. The Lakers’ last two championships were won by a very different kind of team. These things, then, are trends. They tend to go in cycles.
At one point the NBA was, remarkably, a center’s league. These are the players that once dominated the basketball landscape: Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russel, Walt Bellamy, Bob Lanier, the almost forgotten but great defender (one of the best of all time), Nate Thurmond. And the next generation was equally splendid: Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Moses Malone, the young Bill Walton, David Robinson, Hakeem Olajowan, Patrick Ewing, and then eventually Shaquile O’Neal.
Then the NBA became a power forward league: Karl Malone, Tim Duncan, Maurice Lucas, Chris Webber, Horace Grant, Charles Oakley, Shawn Kemp (in his prime), et. al.
Today, point guards and shooters dominate the scene. My point is that talent dictates the philosophy that you adopt. You never lead with philosophy. You get the best players that you can get. And you build your philosophy around them. I assure you that if we had a 24-year old Bill Walton and a 25-year old Maurice Lucas, we would be pounding the ball down low and working inside-out.
So…if we are fortunate enough to acquire a Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor, then it would be perfectly permissable to adopt an inside-out philosophy. Your players determine your approach. No philosophy is sacred. Trends come and go. In 5 years there will be another prevailing trend. One final note: the Lakers WILL choose a big. Talented athletic 7-footers are too difficult to find. The next ones may not come along for 7-8 years for all we know. The Lakers chance is now.
rr says
as they would have reduced the club to a simple laughing-stock
—
I have a lengthy reply hung up in cyberspace, but the Lakers are a laughing-stock now.
Craig W. says
rr,
You are entirely too sensitive. My comments were not primarily aimed at you.
R says
Robert, would love to see Kobe tear up the league at 38, coming off not one, not two, but three consecutive season-ending injuries. However, for him to return to any sort of effective status for any meaningful period of time would be, I think, unprecedented. Again, given his age and the type of injuries he has suffered. Even replicants have their limits.
As to the question, if Kobe can’t, who will? Well, that’s a separate question entirely. Civilizations have collapsed over these types of questions. ????
R says
Not sure why the previous post ended with. Series of these: “?”
Anyway, unless the Lakers land a significant FA this off season and/or a crazy good trade happens, the 2015-2016 Lakers are again going to have a kinda horrible record. At the same time, they will be on – perhaps! – the path ending in a return to relevancy.
AusPhil says
BigCiySid – Having also heard/read that rumour, I for one would be APPALLED if that happened.
Robert says
R: Fair enough. I think KB will play more than 50 games and will lead the team in PPG. Of course I will be going to some games “early” in the year – in case I am wrong : ) With regard to the injury/unprecedented comment: Indeed, and he was given the contract “after” the worst injury and to the best of my knowledge, his birthday has not changed : ) He needs to have the productivity I am expecting or this will rival the Nash trade in terms of poor ROI.
rr says
My comments were not primarily aimed at you.
—
Perhaps not, but they addressed the same topic, were the next post to appear on the screen, used one of the same key words, and showed up 15 minutes after my post did.
Craig W. says
rr,
You are still too sensitive.
rr says
You are still too sensitive.
—
Well, I think you are too focused on being a FO apologist, so we can call it even. If you want to address the actual content of the post, go for it.
Baylor Fan says
Shouldn’t they be interviewing LeBron between quarters instead of Blatt?
Vasheed says
There are 4 centers whom I believe could be great. Towns, Okafor, Cauley-Stein, and Upshaw. My personal preferred choice is WCS. WCS is basically D. Jordan with rocket boosters. He is a 7 foot athlete with the speed to chase most point guards. That sort of defensive ability and athleticism is fairly easy to predict into success at he NBA level. Okafor and even Towns are not in the same league of athleticism as WCS. WCS is a defensive minded player. Offense tends to grab the head lines but I would say WCS’s defense is probably greater then Okafor’s offense. WCS’s offense is not the sort you can run a system through. He is not going to be the focus of an offense but he is highly efficient on offense as well.
I believe WCS is perhaps the most underated player in the draft at the moment. I am in agreement with Larry Bird that this guy is a likely ma deal type guy in the future.
Upshaw is probably the best pure shot blocker in the draft. He isn’t as polished and he has had the off court issues which has sunk his draft value. I think it is a possibility he is available at the Lakers 2nd pick and I would think he is a worthwhile gamble. The other guy I would be interested later in the draft is Justin Anderson who is another freak athlete like WCS who specializes as a 3 and D SF.
Fern says
@rr they have won a lot of games good for them yipee, but how many championships and about to get swept out of the playoffs, you want to defend them? Go right ahead.Let me repeat it again, im glad that Howard is gone, the Lakers would be better if he stayed win more games but they be in the playoffs losing in the second round and no way to improve. You let a 6’0 pg box you out and take an offensive rebound you are soft. They have injuries blah blah blah, Want to make excuses for Dwight? Here is the world’ s smallest violin…
Darius Soriano says
RR makes several good points about the fallout of Dwight leaving, but there’s some context that was left out, in my opinion.
Mostly, yes, the Rockets are in much better shape than the Lakers, but a major part of that is also Harden. Dwight missed 41 games this season and the Rockets were still the 2nd seed in the West, mostly on the back of an MVP caliber season from James Harden. Morey has also built a very good roster in general, with several other contributing players who are in or approaching their prime and did a very good job of retooling the roster in-season with scrap-heap pick ups including Josh Smith and the Corey Brewer trade. Of course Dwight is still a major piece and he’s looked very good these playoffs.
I’d add that part of the reason the Lakers are very bad is all the other stuff that happened besides Dwight leaving. Kobe and Nash proving, basically, nothing in the past two seasons due to health issues. The fact that those two also made a ton of money hurts too. I’d argue, though, that they might very well be in this same situation even if they never traded for Dwight. I mean, Bynum is out of the league and while we can point to the picks the Lakers gave up to get Dwight and Nash, none of those that would have impacted the team a great deal have actually been conveyed yet.
Basically, if the Lakers never trade for Dwight, they might still have a hurt Nash, a Kobe who is breaking down physically while making a lot of money, and Mike Brown coaching the team with a hurt Bynum who would also be taking up a lot of salary cap space. Of course, that’s speculation, but that could easily be the reality right now.
In other words, things were trending down for the Lakers for a while now. Trading for Dwight and having him leave helped accelerate the decline, but so did the veto and the general fact that their roster was aging and not particularly well coached after Phil Jackson left.
Manuel says
After watching film and reading up on the prospects, I have to say my top 4 looks like this:
1. Towns
2. Winslow
3. Okafor
4. Russell
If Towns is gone at the second pick, I think the Lakers should strongly consider J. Winslow. The dude is strong as an ox, has a high bball IQ, lives in the gym and plays his heart out. Kobe would have a lot of fun developing this young cat. If you look at the numbers and through the footage, you can see that Winslow was the key to the improved play of Duke during the second half of the season. To me, he is a much surer thing than Okafor.
Aaron says
rr,
The Lakers are a laughing stock? Ummm no. They are just in a normal rebuilding process after winning five championships in eleven years because their superstar snapped his Achilles and is now old and washed up. The NBA obviously doesn’t think LA is a laughing stock…. Here is Zack Lowe on Kevin Loves upcoming free agency
“I hear the same thing from everybody,” said Lowe. “From everyone that is two or three or four steps removed. I don’t quite believe all of that … Part of what’s going on there is the Lakers’ boogeyman. They don’t just say he’s out of there, they say ‘He’s going to the Lakers.’ That has much to do with the fear people have of the Lakers as it does with Kevin Love.”
Robert says
Aaron: So – are you officially in favor of signing Love? I certainly agree that we are being mentioned as a possible destination, as we are with all major FA. DH was mentioned as “coming to LA” for 2 years before he came here. Then again, LBJ, Carmelo, and others were also mentioned as “coming to LA”. You are correct that LA has an innate advantage, in that we have the Pacific, the celebrities, the history, and just the general aura of being a Laker. That has been true throughout the history of the NBA. Forget the 11 year run, in 62 years, we went to the Finals 31 times and won 16 times. For those 62 years, we avoided a period like that which we are in now. As abysmal as they were, the 90’s were nothing like this. If anyone of us ran the FO, the Pacific Ocean would still be there and we would have all the advantages that we have now. We would still have the second pick, and we would most likely pick one of the two available bigs. Some things would be different however if you, me, or rr ran the FO. We would not be paying $24 million for KB next year, and we would not have signed Nick Young to a multi year deal. Let me know where you stand on Love, especially since he is coming off an injury.
Oldtimer says
First of all, congratulations Renato for your maiden post, hope there will be more.
Well, some posters have insights too, maybe an openly aggressive stand but an honest insight. Too bad it doesn’t jibe with Darius Moderation rules. I guess we speak our mind in a laissez-faire fashion so my posts stay in purgatory of moderation.
Reading several posts, we give too much emphasis on one draft pick yet there is not much choice being in No. 2. Whatever Minny takes, we get the left over Center. Aren’t we happy to get the No. 2 pick? As I said several times, these are freshmen in NBA who excelled in amateur league but have to be tested in professional league. This involves Randle too since he got injured on his first game. The teams that go for playoffs have at least two or three superstars plus a deep bench up to the 9th player. Look at the Hawks, they were the best team during the season now they are banged-up about to be eliminated. It’s 100 games folks, invest on composition of the roster who have the fortitude to play consistently, willing to engage in defense and have the necessary skills to go against competition. Forget the historical stats in NCAA nor their style of play, focus more on the character of the player plus the much needed F/A’s who could contribute immediately and role players who can fill the position if a Superstar becomes disabled. Cap rules, who cares if Lakers are well known in charging exorbitant fees to fans to watch ballgames. Give them what is due to them. If they are paying for Rolex or Apple watch, going for Mercedes based on Lakers products analogy then give them a quality team even if the Lakers exceed the cap. The Buss Family cannot afford to be a 2nd fiddle in LA nor carry an image of being a cellar dweller for three consecutive years. Enough with this tanking objective, we have to value our time for entertainment.
bryan S. says
Aaron @ 4:43am: Saved me the reply to rr–I was going to make the same points. But you killed it by quoting Zach Lowe; whom rr idolizes.
The Clarkson draft steal, Randel’s rumored rise to nascent stud, landing the 2nd pick, and looming epic cap space, has the league back to their usual feelings about the Lakers: envy and fear. I love it. That’s not to suggest the Lakers are back; the feeling however, it that they are on the way.
Robert says
Oldtimer: I share your frustration in multiple ways, however do not get carried away with the Hawks. They are the epitome of being mediocre for decades by having a balanced roster. The two teams headed the Finals are led by MVPs, which is the norm throughout the history the NBA.
bryan S: So your list of Laker accomplishments includes the bounce of a ping pong ball, the “hope” that Randal turn out, and Clarkson. So as I said before, at this point, Clarkson is really the only victory to point to. Randal might be fine, but you speak about him as if that is a for sure thing. Your prediction that we are headed in the right direction is relatively safe. We have only two options: up and sideways. Down is not possible.
KenOak says
Great quote from Julius Randle that I read over on SS&R.
“Since last summer, I have spent countless hours watching and talking about basketball with Kobe. Not many people get that kind of opportunity, but it’s allowed me to study the game in a way I never could when I was actively playing it, and think about the path to development in more nuanced ways.” -Julius Randle
I still have incredibly high hopes for Randle. This kid wants to be great and he seems to be doing everything possible to get there. Love it.
Aaron says
Im officially worried the Lakers are going to sign Kevin Love to the max. The reason I am worried is because the advanced stats show him to be a very good player. Unfortunately he isn’t. Furthermore he is the exact opposite player you want in regular season fourth quarters and playoff all quarters as he is to slow for the speed of play in those environments. I hope the Lakers will be looking at the advanced metrics of the last five minutes of close games his entire career. This illustrates his severe championship limitations. hopefully the Lakers closeness to Jerry West helps them here and they pass on Love at anything more than 13 million per season. The Lakers main goal is to sign Anthony Davis (obviously that’s everyone’s main goal and should be). I would love to have Love come off the bench and back up Davis at 12-13 million a year.
Aaron says
Robert,
The bounce of the ping pong ball is how the Spurs got Duncan, the clippers got Blake, the Pelicans got Davis, the heat got Wade, the Warriors got Clay and Steph, the Cavs got LBJ, Irving etc. It sucks but it’s how everyone enters the NBA. Luck, losing, and good scouting.
AusPhil says
KenOak – But how is this possible? Kobe’s a horrible teammate and nobody wants to play with him…….
Anonymous says
But you killed it by quoting Zach Lowe; whom rr idolizes.
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It would be cool if this site had an ignore user feature. You would be my #1 guy on that list for sure.
And, you are, of course, dead wrong all the way. I have actually been called out at another site I hang out at for calling out Lowe. The guy is a very good writer, but I trust him to be objective about the Lakers about as much as I trust you to be. Lowe is a lifelong Boston Celtics fan, and it shows sometimes. The Lakers bogeyman stuff that he reports on like it is news is another example. This is the third or fourth time he has written something like that. I will believe it when I see it–after all, bogeymen, like Bigfoot , aren’t real.
Also, Lowe has, actually, been making fun of the Lakers all year–he is exactly the kind of guy who laughs at them. Like all sabermetric media guys, he has contempt for Scott, and Lowe called the Lakers a “vaudeville freak show” at the time that Kobe put up the 8/30 against Sacto back in December. I could provide other examples.
I also find it amusing that you and Aaron are using the idea that the Lakers might get Kevin Love, of all people, as a reason that the Lakers are on the way up. As to the general content, if the best you have is Zach Lowe is hearing that people two or three steps removed are afraid the Lakers are bogeyman who will sign FAs, then you and Aaron should stick to scouting reports.
Darius,
I 100% supported the Howard trade and still do, and there are obviously many reasons why it went down as it did that were not the fault of the FO. I just think it is silly for people to trash Howard and mock him for his team losing in the WCF when the Lakers have lost 116 games in two years since he left. And the Lakers’ FO offered Howard a five-year max deal.
bryan S. says
Robert: Please read Aaron @ 3:24 pm. It amazes how little is seen from a water glass half-empty. The one’s who really believe in Laker Exceptionalism, as Darius brilliantly pointed out, are the one’s who believe and expect the Lakers to be great all the time, and are mad as hell when they are not.
p.s. You forgot to include the carefully hoarded looming cap room as another reason for optimism going forward.
Aaron says
rr,
You’re joking right? I have a post stuck in moderation about how I’m afraid the Lakers will sign Kevin Love. Giving Love 20 million a season will scare the heck out of me cause it will make me think twice about their talent evaluation.
Re Howard Trade:
As you know I was famously against it because of his back surgery. I wanted to trade Bynum at the time for Westbrook. The reason the Lakers are better off without Howard is the same reason they would be better off without any 30 year old star. They needed to tank and get younger. The losing we have done the last two years is the exact reason we are better off without him. Being a 10th seed the last two years and the next four years with Howard would have killed the franchise for another decade.
R says
Anonymous: “I also find it amusing that you and Aaron are using the idea that the Lakers might get Kevin Love, of all people, as a reason that the Lakers are on the way up.”
Right, let’s “hope” the Lakers offer K Love a max deal before they have any idea if his shoulder is sound. Know what I mean?
bryan S. says
rr/anon: What you may or may not do at another site is an empty assertion. What you have done here is point to Lowe’s defense of Kevin Love as a great player on numerous occasions when posters like myself were loathing the idea of him becoming a Laker. The fact that Lowe has been making fun of the Lakers all year is right in line with your belief that the Lakers are a “laughing stock” right? Yeah.
But here’s the thing, take issue with what I say, but don’t make something up to discredit me, or anyone else. Please show me where I *ever* pointed to the possible signing of Love by the Lakers as a sign of things getting better. You cannot. Because it’s absolutely false. You made it up. That’s pretty sorry.
rr says
Aaron/bryan:
You guys both missed the point of the post.
Lowe’s post mentions Love possibly coming here; Aaron quoted it as a sign that the Lakers are heading for big FA scores, that the league is scared of the Lakers, etc. And, given that you both have trashed Love incessantly all year, and bragged about doing so, repeatedly, it was, I thought, quite amusing that a quote involving a possible Love-to-the-Lakers scenario was your big gotcha quote.
As to Love’s performance in Cleveland, I have acknowledged that both of you read the situation better than I did. I have no problem owning that. We will see what happens with Love in the future and where he goes.
As to the rest, old news: Aaron’s long-term Lakers Exceptionalism scenario is no secret to anyone here. I hope he is right, but there is no specific reason to think that he will be. And bryan s is just being bryan s. I don’t idolize any basketball writers, nor have I ever said that I did, so the guy making stuff up is you.
Baylor Fan says
The NBA concussion protocol is quite the joke. Curry clearly had a high fall onto his shoulder, neck, and head and is seen several minutes later running sprints in a hallway. His injury cannot be assessed properly for at least a day. In the meantime it should be treated as one would a sprain only without the heat. That means ice packs to the neck to help cool the blood to the brain and sitting upright and minimal stimulation. His brain needs to be given a chance to recover from any fluid buildup. Playing like he did only exacerbated any possible injury and will delay his recovery. That was an incredibly stupid move by both the team physician and coach.
rr says
the Lakers would be better if he stayed win more games but they be in the playoffs losing in the second round and no way to improve.
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Two problems:
1. Houston is in the 3rd round.
2. You have no way of knowing that they would have no way to improve.
You just don’t like him, which is fine. I don’t either. But that is a separate issue.
bryan S. says
rr: Nice spin to cover your dishonesty. What is this “you guys” excrement? You know I never said anything of the kind. So lumping me in with Aaron’s comment somehow makes your lie tenable? Please. Ban yourself for awhile. You need it.
Aaron says
Bryan,
Chill out. Don’t make things personal.
rr,
Screw you! Jk 😉 I like Dwight Howard. I’ve defended him over and over. It’s not his fault he had back surgery and has never regained his old form/athleticism. I quoted Lowe to show that even “Laker haters” admit that not only to people around the league not think of the lakers as a joke but as something to be feared. And again… What do you think laker exceptionalism is? I’m not the one who is trashing them because they aren’t competing for a championship every year. I don’t except that and I am surprised even a exceptionalist like yourself does. You have to play the hand you’re dealt. The Lakers were put in a spot where they needed to lose to get better. That’s what they did. I’m sorry the FO and myself agreed on that. The FO and Aaron don’t agree all the time. I was against the Nash and Howard deals. I was against the Young contract. I was famously anti Derek Fisher as a starting PG. I don’t however pretend we live in a perfect world where every team and city is created equal. The Lakers in Los Angeles have built in advantages that no other franchise in the NBA enjoys. Ita just the way it is. I don’t know why that upsets you so. There really isn’t anyone who doesn’t realize this. Except I guess you. For that I am impressed. Anyone who thinks differently peaks my curiosity.
rr says
bryan,
You still don’t get it. You suggested that the Lowe quote, which includes the Love-to-the-Lakers stuff, is indicative of a wide-ranging developing scenario that has the league is returning to a state of “envy and fear” when it comes to the Lakers. Given your extremely low opinion of Love’s abilities, I think that is pretty funny. I never said that you want the team to sign Kevin Love. If I had wanted to say that, then I would have done so, directly and clearly. If you think I implied as much, then that was not my intent. I am well aware of what you think of Love,as is anyone here who has read your posts about him.
As to the interpersonal friction, I suggested to you awhile back that it would be better if we ignored each other. You declined. Since you are now saying that I need to ban myself from the site because of an issue that you have with me, I trust that you have wised up about it and see that I was right.
Ko says
Basketball in LA better start soon before a 3 city war breaks out amount bickering posters. Geez relax guys, no one knows what going to happen including Mitch, Jimmy, Jeannie, Joey and anyone else with the letter J.
Peace!
rr says
Peace!
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This from the guy who calls certain members of the FO names during games? Heh.
I am totally relaxed, Ko.
Also, as to actual basketball, I expect that if Love actually hits FA and wants to come here, then the Lakers will offer him a max deal. I am not saying that it would be a good idea–but I think they would do it.
R says
rr – sadly I think you are correct that the Lakers would offer love a max deal.
I suspect Jimmy is a slow learner and hope I’m wrong.
rr says
Aaron,
I think that the Lakers have some advantages, but I don’t see those as likely to
a) Pay off with the big FAs likely to be on the market the next 2-3 years, including Durant, and Davis, if he hits the market.
b) Help that much unless the team is good–not better than now but good–when they are recruiting.
c) Be as pronounced in the internet/state tax era as they might have been in previous ones.
Like I have said, I hope it works out like you are saying it can. I would much rather be saying, “Man, Aaron was right again!” and rooting for an awesome team in 2018 than the opposite. But I am not seeing it going down that way from where we are now.
grumpy says
In the words of Ron Burgundy: Well…that escalated quickly!
In my mind, there are two kinds of Lakers exceptionalism:
The first is thinking that players will come to LA just because it’s LA. What we saw with Dwight leaving is that location is not everything and good to great players place a premium on places where they can win. While the Lakers might be an attractive place to be, location and name alone are not going to draw in top tier free agents.
The second is the expectation that the Lakers should not have any down years because they are the Lakers. This is not realistic due to the cap rule changes. Draft picks are much more valuable now than they ever were and that makes being bad a viable strategy. For this reason, I can’t call the Lakers the laughing stock of the league. All teams will have down years and the league almost gives incentives to tank.
The Lakers do have some things going for them, but the front office needs to nail the 2015 draft picks and get some key role players on our team before quality super stars consider signing here.
Todd says
@ Grumpy: The second is the expectation that the Lakers should not have any down years because they are the Lakers. This is not realistic due to the cap rule changes. Draft picks are much more valuable now than they ever were and that makes being bad a viable strategy. For this reason, I can’t call the Lakers the laughing stock of the league. All teams will have down years and the league almost gives incentives to tank.
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Yes, down years are natural. However, what the Lakers’ have experienced was escalated, deepened and prolonged by the many poor decisions of our FO — specifically Jim Buss.
And, note, we aren’t out of the woods yet…far from it.
Todd says
As the Lakers contemplate taking Okafor and his ‘back to the basket game’, there’s an interesting read on Grantland by (dare I say it?) Zach Lowe on the possibility of the ‘post up’ making a comeback.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/we-interrupt-this-eulogy-for-the-nba-post-up-game-to-bring-you-its-rebirth/
Aaron says
rr,
The internet/social media era has only made the Lakers more popular. And state taxes are nothing new.
Craig W. says
Whew!!! I think we need a new post.
State taxes – again – the players pay taxes in the specific states they play in. This does give Florida, etc, an advantage, but only for 41 home games, not 82. Therefore, for a player to make a decision to play somewhere solely based on state taxes is incredibly foolish – and their financial advisor/manager would tell them so. It is sort of like the ‘icing on the cake’ part of the deal.
the other Stephen says
#LakerPrivilege #Bussplaining
minorthreatt says
Love Lowe or hate him, that’s a great piece, if somewhat predictably counterintuitive. The nature of things — not just basketball — means that people are ALWAYS looking for undervalued skills to exploit. I’d still prefer Towns, but you can imagine a good post passer like Okafor changing teams’ game plans, and maybe starting a new trend, IF you surround him with a couple of dependable outside scorers.
rr says
Digital media: I think it is undeniable that media are more nationalized and internationalized today. Just as an example–Dave McMenamin left the Lakers beat to go cover…the Cavs, because LeBron is there. I can’t picture that happening 15 or 20 years ago.
So, I think big markets probably mean less than they once did and not everybody is going to care about China as much as Kobe does.
State taxes: I am aware of how it is set up. But Howard’s people mentioned it, people connected to Marc Gasol have supposedly talked to him about it and he is very aware of it. It may be a small thing, but it is a thing.
Exceptionalism: Todd and grumpy summarized it pretty well. I would also respectfully remind Aaron that he said that signing Anthony Davis will be “the easy part” if the Lakers nail the picks. That, to me, is Lakers Exceptionalism in a nutshell. Aaron has also said that he believes based on stuff that he has heard, that Durant will be picking between OKC and the Lakers, and that Washington has no chance. I will be very surprised if that is how Durant’s FA plays out.
And, you always have to look at the guy himself. There were specific reasons, related to who they were as people and players, that Kareem wanted to be here, that Shaq wanted to be here. I don’t see that with either Durant or Davis. Most of the Lakers’ big acquisitions that have anchored the team over the last 50 years have been either drafted or acquired by trade.
The guys who do have LA connections who will be hitting FA over the next four years are Love, Westbrook, and Paul George. But those guys, obviously, are not Anthony Davis, and the Clippers play here, too.
Finally, as noted: winning. Guys who are going to get $ and playing time anywhere will look to win immediately–as we have just seen with Howard and James.
R says
Craig W – agree it would be quite odd to base a where to live/work decision solely on state taxes. As you mention, though, it’s worth considering as a part of the overall situation.
rubenowski says
Im higher on Okafor because it looks like Towns’ game relies too heavily on his athleticism. The questions then become: how long can he play at an elite level? And, what happens if he gets injured?
Not to mention the fact that he only played 20 minutes a game in college and was therefore able to spend all his energy in those 20 minutes. Can he play 36 minutes a game in the nba without getting tired? Thats what Im wondering.
Darius Soriano says
RR,
I pretty much agree that what we are seeing more and more is that FA is an individual decision that will mostly be about winning. I think this is true for all players, too, not just the star players. Yes, some players will always be about maximizing their money, but that won’t always be the case – especially since some off-set in salary can be off-set by what it means to an individual to win. One thing the Lakers have almost always had going for them is being very competitive. They have not been lately and that has at least partially contributed to them not getting big name players in FA.
As an aside, however, it has been strongly implied to me that McMenamin did not “choose” to go cover the Cavs. He works for ESPN and they wanted him to cover the Cavs w/ LeBron’s return. Much like they started the “Heat Index” when LeBron and Bosh went to Miami and had people move there to cover the team full time. As employees, these guys don’t always make their own decisions about where they work.
rr says
Darius,
Interesting about McMenamin. Thx.
Darius Soriano says
RR,
I’d add that Dave is one of the best team/beat reporters around. It makes sense to move him off the Lakers’ beat and onto the Cavs’ beat considering the state of both teams. And it’s not like they totally de-invested in the Lakers since they hired Baxter Holmes from Boston to be on the Lakers’ beat for ESPN LA. Also still have Shelburne and Markazi (who mostly does Clippers’ stuff, but will write on the Lakers every once and a while) who are local. Adande also still is a local guy even though he’s definitely more of a “National” guy.
rr says
Darius,
I agree with your opinion of McMenamin and I see the point. I’d add, though, that BITD pre-net I don’t think that would have happened. Those kind of platforms have changed the media game, so I would suggest that LA and NY don’t mean quite what they did in the newspapers/cable TV eras in terms of endorsements, etc. But I may be incorrect.
Aaron says
rr,
The media will always follow the best player in the game. Even Kareem with the Bucks. There is a reason the two most valuable franchises in the league according to Forbes are the Knicks and the Lakers. There is a reason the Lakers have by far the most expensive TV deal and more Twitter followers than the actual NBA. TV/Media and the Internet have only strengthend the Lakers grasp over basketball. The Lakers market is no longer just Los Angeles… It’s the entire globe. I will say luck played a big part. The Lakers won five championships that coincided with the explosion of the Internet.
rr says
TV/Media and the Internet have only strengthend the Lakers grasp over basketball.
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And yet, Howard went to Houston, and James never considered coming here. Each guy is different, but any player’s day-to-day experience is going to revolve around the team the organization, and games on the floor–not how many people in Beijing or Barcelona follow the team’s Twitter account. Would LeBron James be even MORE famous and worth even MORE money if he played for the Lakers? Probably, but he would also have millions of basketball fans hating on him for coming here and he would probably not be in the conference finals. And he wouldn’t be near his home.
Like I said, I think you tend to project how you see things on to the FO, agents, and players, and tend to presume that all those people share those perceptions and priorities. They don’t.
Aaron says
rr,
I feel like you are having a conversation with yourself. As I have said the most important thing is winning/roster. The lakers had an old washed up roster. For 30 year old players who need a win now roster that’s a non starter. I don’t get why you aren’t understanding this.
rr says
I don’t get why you aren’t understanding this.
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I understand it fine. I don’t get why you don’t understand that
a) Some guys might not want to play in Los Angeles or Miami.
b) Playing with Julius Randle might not be a draw for a 28-year-old All-Star
c) Getting 2-3 high-level guys to sign together might be pretty complicated.
Aaron says
rr,
I never said everyone wans to play in LA or Miami.
It’s not Randle that draws in a 28 year old star. It’s the fact he and players like him would be good young role players at worst on cheap deal allowing for that 28 year old to pick three other max players to join him and the lakers cost controlled young players.
Getting 3-4 max players to sign is much easier than getting one max player to sign. Because as you said… Players want to win and great players want to play together.
24hRx. says
Oakafor is the new Godzilla, and the NBA is Tokyo. The Lakers should hire Jeff Van Gundy now, and his lead assistent Thibs, with big money for both.
CoachSass says
Great article. Really enjoyed it.
While I agree that Okafor will be a terrific NBA player, I think passing on D’Angelo Russell would be an enormous mistake. Russell is version 2.0 of James Harden, the player we just wanted take an average Rockets team to Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals.
How Russell scores like Harden: http://coachsass.com/2015/05/30/dangelo-russell-is-james-harden-2-0/
How Russell creates like Harden: http://coachsass.com/2015/05/31/how-dangelo-russell-creates-for-others-just-like-james-harden//