While I am firm believer the Lakers cannot be fixed in a single off-season, they are in position to make some important signings in free agency starting late Tuesday night when the 2015-16 NBA season officially opens for business. Should Jordan Hill’s option not be picked up (which it, reportedly, will not be), the Lakers look to have roughly $24 million in cap space. This is a healthy amount of money which can be divided in any number of ways to upgrade a roster that, while on the ascension, could sorely use more talent.
The purpose of this post, though, isn’t to look at who the Lakers should chase, but rather what approach they might take in spending their cap space. Before we get into those paths, however, a few points worth mentioning:
- The $24 million mentioned above is only an estimate, due to a few reasons:
- Jordan Hill’s $9 million option must be decided on before Tuesday.
- The Lakers have several players on non-guaranteed contracts for next year — Jordan Clarkson, Tarik Black, Robert Sacre, and Jabari Brown.
- The Lakers two 1st round picks carry cap holds tied to their guaranteed contracts as first rounders
- Players of different years of service have different “max” salary amounts. Players who have 0-6 years of service have a maximum salary of 25% of the salary cap. Players who have 7-9 years of service have a maximum of 30% of the salary cap. Players with 10+ years of service have a maximum salary of 35% of the salary cap. Of course, there are ways around these numbers, but for the purpose of the Lakers’ free agency pursuits, these are the percentages that matter.
- There are unrestricted and restricted free agents. The former are free to sign with whoever they want. The latter are still tied to their current team via an ability to match any offer made to the restricted player. The team who has the right to match has three days to make their decision. During this waiting period, the cap space offered to the restricted free agent by the team making the offer is tied up in the offer and not available for an offer to any other free agent.
- The longest deal the Lakers can offer a free agent from another team is 4 years.
- Because the Lakers will once again fall under the cap, they will not have the “mid level” or “bi-annual” exceptions available to them. Instead, they will only have the “room” exception — roughly a $3 million salary slot to chase a mid-level type of player.
With all that information out of the way, below are the three general approaches the Lakers can take in free agency. For the purposes of this post we are going off the $24 million cap space estimate. Let’s start the slideshow. (Just kidding.)
Chase the 7-9 year Max Player
The Lakers have already been said to be looking at several of the top free agents, most of whom are players who have been in the league for 7-9 years. This makes them eligible for a 30% max salary. The numbers of what that deal would look like are not set in stone, but the general thought is that a four year maximum contract for this player would be for a value of $80 million. Players who are likely to command this type of contract are LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love, DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic, and Marc Gasol.
The Lakers are said to be after these players, so just expect the offers to happen. Based on the numbers above, though, if they were to actually sign one, they would only have about $6.3* million in salary cap space and their “room exception” remaining to sign any additional priority free agents. After that space and the exception was spent, they would need to fill out the roster with minimum salaried players.
If the Lakers could actually lure a max level, top tiered player, this off-season would be a home run and everyone should celebrate. The Lakers remain a powerful brand, but they are not a great team. Getting a great player to sign on with a team who was as bad as the Lakers were last season would be a coup.
Chase the 0-6 year Max Player/Dabble in Restricted Free Agency
As implied above, restricted free agency is tricky. The players’ are typically hard to pry away from their current teams and while waiting for the other team to (more than likely) match the contract, the money you want to spend is tied up and unavailable to offer to someone you may actually want/be able to sign. It’s this reason teams often don’t even try to sign away RFA’s and instead focus their energy on unrestricted guys.
Unfortunately for the Lakers, most of the players who are eligible for the 0-6 year max are still RFA’s. The most desirable guys from this group include Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green. So, even though these guys will cost less they are almost all likely to be retained by their current team.
There are a couple of notable players who don’t fall into this category, however. The first is Tobias Harris of the Magic. Harris is a RFA, but the Magic just drafted Mario Hezonja with the #5 overall pick, who just so happens to be a SF (the same position Harris plays). Reports are the Magic are hesitant to match a max offer for Harris. Of course, those are just reports. The second player is Greg Monroe, who is an unrestricted free agent after signing his qualifying offer last summer (bypassing RFA in the process). I won’t get into the merits of Monroe’s game here (we’ll cover that before free agency opens), but chasing him comes without any strings of RFA attached.
Should the Lakers go this route, they will have about $9.3 million left in cap space as well as their room exception. Clearly this path leaves the Lakers with a fair amount of space to continue to round out the roster, maybe even signing another upper-mid level guy who could potentially start or be a key contributor off the bench.
Avoid Max guys, Chase Role Players, & Roll Over some Cap Space
The least flashy of any of the approaches, the Lakers are unlikely to pursue this path unless it is a last resort. If they end up going after a few mid-level guys (and signing them to deals in the $6 to $8 million range) it is likely because they struck out on getting any of the max level guys (UFA or RFA) to come on board.
This would leave them to fill out the roster with useful players who help improve the talent base for this upcoming season and for the following ones. Having these players on board likely makes the roster, even if only slightly, more desirable to “win now” free agents who do not want to come to a team with a bare cupboard or with only young players who are not quite ready to contend without additional contributing veterans who have at least some playoff experience.
Safe to say, if this is the direction the team goes they will not spend all their cap space, but instead will hold some back in order to combine with the massive space they expect to have in the summer of 2016 when Kobe’s contract comes off the books and the cap is expected to rise as high as $90 million. This wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but it would be a bit disappointing considering the fact many other teams will also have hoards of cap space to chase the same players the Lakers will want to sign.
It is hard to know how much appeal the Lakers will actually have when free agency opens on July 1st. They do have money to spend, however, and combined with D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson, and Kobe returning there is an interesting mix of young talent and a veteran legend to team up with. Whether that is enough to get any one (or more) of them to come on board remains to be seen, but it is clear the Lakers would like to make a push now and then a big splash next summer to leap back into the contention. We’ll see if they have the tools to get it done, but however it plays out it will be one of the paths above they travel down.
Danny says
What happens if the Lakers trade for players? Can they go over the cap after getting the traded players and then use the biannual and mid-level?
grumpy says
While I haven’t looked into the free agent market too much, it seems like we have three choices for young (i.e. 27 or younger) big men: Greg Monroe, DeAndre Jordan, and Robin Lopez.
I saw some thoughts on Monroe and I think everyone knows what we’re getting with DJ, but what do you guys think of Robin Lopez? I haven’t seen much of him, but he seems like an affordable and decent center who doesn’t require a ton of touches. Looks to be a good free throw shooter (77%). Thoughts?
Warren Lim says
Danny, before the Lakers have any form of cap room, they would first need to renounce those 2 exceptions.
Michael says
I am all for Robin Lopez. He doesn’t have the offensive capabilities of his brother although he doesn’t have knee issues and has one heck of a motor. Demare Carroll is another one on my wish list. I followed his numbers for the last two months of the season and noticed he didn’t seem to require having the ball in his hands. He took the shots when necessary. I didn’t watch Jimmy Butler much yet I believe he needs the ball in his mits. Since the Lakers have a few ball dominant players: Clarkson, Russell, Bryant – why add another player of that mold to the mix?
14:1 says
I don’t think we should chase any max guys, mostly because I don’t think any of those max center FAs will fit the teams needs and/or fit the team’s current timeline. It makes much more sense to me for the Lakers to chase a max impact player next year or the year after when the team is more developed and ready.
I think that our biggest need in free agency is a good defensive center. It would be nice if it’s a real center and not a tweener C/PF. DJ, Gasol, and Chandler fit the mold of a defensive, shot blocking guys, who doesn’t need too many touches, who hustles for rebounds and gets his points that way, and who can finish above the rim.
Gasol is probably not leaving Memphis. Also at 30, he doesn’t quite fit the teams time frame for contention, which is probably 3 yrs out. His price tag is probably not worth it on a team that’s going to be fighting just to get into the playoffs.
DJ is younger, but again I don’t know that his price tag is worth it right now since the next 3 yrs will be more about developing the young talents on the team, building chemistry, gaining experience, building the team through trades/signings to get to a point of contention. Also, it sounds like he’ll most likely resign with the Clips or ends up in Dallas. Also his free throw shooting is horrible.
This is where Chandler comes in. True, he is on the downside and will be 33 next October. Even at this age, I think he will still prove to be an effective hustle guy, rebounding, finishing lobs, and getting put backs. If the Mavs do sign DJ, then Chandler will be available. I don’t think he’ll command the same money as Gasol or DJ on the market making him perfect for the current Lakers team during this transition phase. He can be the anchor on defense that allows the rest of the team to focus on developing their game, team chemistry, and grow while trying to get above .500 and break into the playoffs. If Chandler can stay healthy, I think he will be a good serviceable center at a much more affordable contract. This will allow the team to sign another FA at SF to help shore up the perimeter defense and maybe another backup center. Sacre shouldn’t be the first center off the bench. I think of him as a third stringer and hope that I don’t have to see him much next year, except during blowouts.
bluehill says
This post highlights the predicament facing the FO. You have promising young talent but don’t know what you really have yet. A max FA probably wants to go somewhere where they can win and get paid, which I don’t think the Lakers offer. Of course, Aldridge and Jordan will speak with us, but it’s just a negotiation tactic. And, there doesn’t seem to be a possibility of creating a super team this year like the year when LeBron and Bosh were available. Perhaps Mitch can create something like that by trading for Cousins and signing one of the max FAs.
With the RFAs, the good ones will be matched. Maybe we can get one with a few warts from a cap-constrained team, but they would need to be a piece of a bigger-picture puzzle, which the FO is waiting to see what develops.
I favor the last option. Find some additional role players and keep our options open for next year. I doubt we’re going from worst to first next year with the FAs available this year and trying to do so might extend the road to the finals. Cash is a position too.
J C says
Jimmy Butler is ferocious defensively and on offense. He’s top tier in my book as an RFA.
It’s my opinion that the Lakers already felt like the last two seasons were so bad they are chomping at the bit to leap back into contention ASAP.
I think the Lakers still feel a bit entitled and that long-term rebuilds are beneath them. So if they can score a major FA and make a trade for another veteran, they’ll do it and compete sooner rather than later.
LeRoy Bankroll says
Tyson Chandler
Kevin Cardenas says
Robin lopez and Tobias Harris. Good off season imo.
Craig W. says
In the last thread we pretty much exhausted the Monroe option. How about someone starting a summary of strengths and weaknesses for Robin Lopez. From where I stand he is not much of a scorer and he is more of a constant threat on defense, rather than having any kind of defensive dominance. He should be able to play an open court game, while still being a good off-ball shot blocker.
Craig W. says
The benefit of the 0-6 Max guys is that we may be able to sign two of them. If they are players we see being #2 – #4 on our team going forward, it might be advantages to get them signed this year. Having Monroe and Harris wouldn’t be a bad result for this summer.
After that, we just might want to resign some of our own guys, i.e Ellington and perhaps Davis – if he isn’t too expensive.
J C says
Chandler seems better than Lopez to me.
Lopez may be a pretty good get but will he want max $?
Some of the east coast players are unfamiliar to me since it feels like I watch mostly west coast games.
Renato Afonso says
My wish list is quite simple:
Wings
– Kawhi is worth the max. We should offer him the max but he’s not leaving the Spurs…
– DeMarre Carroll. He is a great complimentary player and a great defender. If we have to overpay for him, so be it (assuming Randle can handle the other forward slot).
– Jimmy Butler. He is great but I’m not sure we’ll try getting him due to the Russell, Clarkson, Kobe trifecta we have. If Clarkson is traded for a big, then he’s a must sign if possible type of player.
Centers
– DeAndre Jordan. Give him the max. Put up a banner. We had our shot at a center in the draft and went the other way, so this is our biggest hole right now. But sadly, I think our chances of signing him are less than 1%…
– Robin Lopez. A very nice consolation prize who won’t be getting the max from anyone. After missing out on Jordan, we should definitely overpay for him. He plays solid defense, doesn’t complain about touches, is healthy and plays hard.
– Greg Monroe. We need at least some post offense outside Kobe, right? I like him a lot but I’m not sure he’s worth the max. We would obviously have to overpay to get him.
Ideally we would sign Kawhi and Jordan. Realistically, I think we have a good shot a signing Carroll and Lopez if we move early and focus on them. Neither one is a max player but they are without a doubt starter-caliber players on a championship team.
An 8 player rotation consisting of Russell, Clarkson, Kobe, Young, Carroll, Randle, Black and Lopez is good enough to be competitive against everyone. They wouldn’t be going for the championship but they could make a run at the 8th seed.
jei Shun says
guys? i have some options, why not try acquiring Koufus, i heard his cheap and a decent center lurking for a starting role/ off the bench. why not try, ? hehe
he can block some shots decntly right?
Warren Wee Lim says
I change my mind as to what kind of team I want every 5 minutes or so. Because of this I was able to come up with more than one scenario in which the Lakers can improve on this summer.
Examine your depth chart first and identify your biggest needs. Assumptions:
1. Jordan Hill option is declined, bird rights renounced.
2. Free Agent rights to Boozer, Nash, Lin and the rest of the gang (Blue, Ellington, Johnson and Sacre) are declined.
3. Pick Up options for: Clarkson, Black, Jabari Brown.
1: D. Russell – J. Brown
2: J. Clarkson – N. Young
3: K. Bryant – A. Brown
4: J. Randle – R. Kelly – L. Nance
5: T. Black –
The most glaring weakness of the team is rebounding, interior scoring, interior defense and rim protection and overall size.
A. Ajinca – rebounding
B. Biyombo – rebounding, interior defense
O. Asik – rebounding, interior defense
J. Hill – rebounding
E. Davis – rebounding, interior defense, rim protection
D. Jordan – rebounding, interior defense, rim protection
L. Aldridge – interior scoring, rebounding
K. Love – interior scoring, rebounding
M. Gasol – interior scoring, interior defense
B. Lopez – interior scoring
R. Lopez – rebounding, interior defense, rim protection
K. Koufos – interior defense
G. Monroe – interior scoring, rebounding
A. Johnson – rebounding, interior defense
not included in the list:
A. Bargnani – wrong big.
T. Chandler – too old, would prefer win-now destinations.
P. Millsap – Julius Randle skillset
D. West – too old, not interested in skillset.
D. Green – restricted, auto re-sign GSW
E. Kanter – restricted, auto re-sign OKC
T. Thompson – restricted, auto re-sign CLE
T. Duncan – c’mon now
There are a few more free agents that are less significant. Having 23 million to spend means you can shop at 5th avenue, question is, who do you choose?
Warren Wee Lim says
Craig, the proposal to sign Harris and Monroe is very good, however, in order to pry one or both, you would need something like atleast 32 million in space to do so. Otherwise, their owning teams would match. In our case, its one or the other and you have to shop at the 7-8M range for the 2nd guy you sign. That may not be such a bad idea.
As for me, I’d choose 2 centers that are cheap-ish and still have room to grow. Our team isn’t ready-made in and would require atleast 2 more seasons to complete in terms of contention. They’d have to be young enough to be with the team when we start to contend and due to the current makeup of the team, we need them to protect the rim as their prime skill.
That gives me: Ed Davis and Robin Lopez.
I’d offer Robin Lopez first something like 38/4. It would be a good bump from his previous salary of 11/2. By utilizing only 9M from my 23, I’d have 14M to spend on Davis (21/3) and use the remaining 21/3 to convince a player in the mold of Al Farouq Aminu to join in.
Ideally though, I’d give Aldridge or Monroe the max and still have enough to sign Robin Lopez.
Shaun says
http://nypost.com/2015/06/28/bad-news-for-knicks-monroe-wants-a-team-ready-to-win/
Not to bring up monroe again but more for what he is looking for as a contract – he only wants a 2yr deal with a 1 yr opt out … plus to play for a contender …..we might see a lot of this in FA this year that might make it super wonky …. i was hoping for him to become part of the team longterm but if he is looking for a 30mil per max in the future hes crazy …. i think the new super max will actually only be used for guys like durant and lbj ….. lower ties guys like mo roe who are good but not super good will need to calm down …. but someone will overpay … im sure the owners will try amd cap max salaries in the next round of negotiations
BigCitySid says
– Thanks Darius, great piece. Nicely informative.
– Personally I wonder about great players who are in a great position on a serious contender who leave to join a team going nowhere for a few more $$’s.
– For those, such as myself who would like to see an upgrade at the five spot, Greg Monroe (25 years old, 6′ 11″, 253 lbs) & Robin Lopez (27, 7′ 0″, 255 lbs) are interesting options. This is how they compare to each other: http://bkref.com/tiny/n3en0
Shelton says
I would be ok using the money on Greg Monroe who is young and still developing, then re-signing Ed Davis and going after Patrick Beverly. That projected team may will 40 something games but its a good starting point especially with all the young talent. My only concern is that Greg Monroe seems like a bigger version of Boozer. Good scoring and rebounding but lacking on the toughness and defense. He’s 6-11 with a 7-2 wingspan so there’s maybe room for improvement. I also wouldn’t mind Brook Lopez. Good scorer and shot blocker but not much of a rebounder. But very good player and borderline all star.
Anonymous says
The lakers at this point need depth at the wing and the center position. They could possible have that in Nance Jr., Brown, and Upshaw. Then, in my opinion I think they need to look getting as much versatility as possible at the wing(look at somebody who can play/guard at least 2 positions), THEN go for the big free agent.
bluehill says
This Grantland article provides an interesting look at the declining value of Roy Hibbert and the kind of center we should be looking for.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/continuity-errors-why-the-blazers-and-pacers-may-have-to-start-over/
Craig W. says
While I would like to make a really big signing this year, the fact that players near the top will likely want to join contending teams makes our job harder. Those are also the players who will demand the max this year, with a one year opt-out – because the max will change so much next year, teams will be more willing to do this. Perhaps – like Warren did for us – we should also publish the projected cap space for the top 16 teams. The bottom teams we can compete with solely based on our location and reputation – IMO. If someone doesn’t do that I will get to it later today.
If there are too many teams with $20M+ cap space at the top, then that makes Anon’s concept of targeting mid-level needs before going for a big signing more attractive.
Valentina Noel says
L.A. Lakers projected depth chart 2015-16
Point guards: Russell, FA
Guards: Clarkson, Young, J. Brown
Small Forwards: Bryant, FA, A. Brown
Power Forwards: Randle, Nance, Kelly
Centers: FA, Black, Upshaw
If all the rookies perform at the expected level we might not have a bad team at all. Although I agree it’s going to be tough to fix it all in just one off-season, the right moves might make this team entertaining and fun to watch to say the least.
Aldridge: nice addition based on talent but 80M for a 30 yo who doesn’t really want to play center or is any kind of rim protector?
DJ: Perfect match as a defensive anchor sorely needed but not really a difference maker star. Is he worth it? maybe, but I have serious doubts he would leave the clippers, the real competitor for them seem to be the Mavs.
Monroe: nice get because of age, polished play and adequate production, even with a 7’2” wingspan not much of a rim protector.
Chandler: would be great defensively but at 32 way too old for a 12M plus investment.
Brook Lopez: Huge and talented, with a 7’5.5” monstrous wingspan but too injury prone and weak rebounder to invest max money.
Robin Lopez: Plan C but a role player, averaged 1.4 blocks per game in 27 minutes, who might be had relatively cheap.
Marc Gasol: arguably the best center in the league right now, maybe the most
complete center but won’t leave Memphis.
Tobias Harris: Would be a perfect fit at SF, might be worth a try while going the cheaper way at center with a Robin Lopez type.
Jimmy Butler: great 2-way all star, it would be awesome to pair with our young core, the Bulls will match.
DeMarre Carroll: great 3 and D specialist, would be a nice addition but not in the 12M per year range.
And what if Upshaw does become an effective defensive anchor and shot blocker at the NBA level?
Tough decisions coming for Mitch and Co. What is available doesn’t get me overly excited since it’s evident we won’t be contenders even in the best case scenario. It’s important to improve the team though if you want to have any chance of luring KD or the other FAs in the summer of 2016.
George says
I would sign Monroe and Harris and call it a day. I’m not interested in any of the 30 year old FAs – it’s been said by many on this site and I agree – if you sign one of those guys you instantly become a win now team which we are not. Why would the FO put that much pressure on themselves? The risk of making subsequent bad personnel decisions would go up significantly and poof all of your flexibility(which you paid for by having consecutive historic bad seasons) would be gone.
No, the FO would be misreading the tea leaves if they changed course a went for a quicker path to competitiveness due to perceived fan pressure. I believe true fans want to see a young talented core that can grow and attract elite FAs in the future. Step one has to be to get to .500,, step two is the playoffs and step three is actually having a realistic shot at the Western Conference title/winning it all. Ask any team without Lebron on it and they’ll tell you that journey takes a few years.
Do this right and the answer to where elite player X will go if he wants to win will be: The Los Angeles Lakers.
PurpleBlood says
Tough call for our FO, but I believe they´ll surprise us again.
As to Darius´ fine piece,
It seems to me that distributing what $ we do have available this year as `proportionally´ as possible while still attempting to cover our major needs is common sense – though J C did have this to say, & I not only see where he´s coming from, but also feel it´s quite plausible:
I think the Lakers still feel a bit entitled and that long-term rebuilds are beneath them. So if they can score a major FA and make a trade for another veteran, they’ll do it and compete sooner rather than later.
___
bluehill, thanks for the link, good article
Kevin says
@ Valentina Noel: If the Lakers are fortunate enough to get Tobias Harris, he will be the starting Three. That will push Kobe back to the Two (until he gets injured). However, as long as Kobe starts Clarkson will be the third guard. That is the role many had for JC when he began to get minutes last season: the 1st guard off the bench on a good team.
LKK says
Really like the idea of Harris and Lopez. Hoping that Upshaw pans out and that the team can keep Ed Davis. Combined with Black, that would give the Show some oomph up front. A good backup small forward (Wes Johnson?) is a must. At this stage of his career, I don’t like Kobe playing the 3. He just doesn’t have the defensive chops anymore.
Wayne Ellington is on my wish list as well. I would welcome anything the team could do to upgrade and part ways with Swaggy and Sacre. Ryan Kelly may have some value as a stretch 4, but he just doesn’t float my boat.
Busboys4me says
Signing Tobias Harris and Lamarcus Aldridge will do for me. Keep J. Hill if possible. If not, Thanks for the memories (see Earl Clark). Sign Upshaw, Ellington and Price, wish the best to Lin, Boozer and Sacre. We then wait for Butler to finish his one year deal and we then have a much better year in 2016.
mark says
Or Harris could move to the four and Randle could come off the bench. Lots of possibilities for this team currently. By the end of the week hopefully we have a much better idea though.
Tony says
Building on what George said above: Any free agent that signs with the Lakers is likely going to have to face the strong possibility of not making the playoffs next year, their 1st with the team. The odds are that in year two, with additional help, the team should make the top eight in the West. It’s in year three that the maturity of the young players pays off with a higher seed and the confidence to go far in the playoffs.
If that is an optimistic path – what current FAs would honestly sign up for that? I think the only ones that would consider that course are those that have a personal timeline that can allow for at least two disappointing (non contending) seasons. I think that ‘set’ of free agents is rather small — especially when overlaid by whom the Lakers would find attractive.
I think this is why so many have mentioned Monroe and Harris because these two fit the intersection of players who have a longer personal timeline and players the Lakers want/need.
Dencio says
Robin Lopez and DeMarre Carroll……….get err done!!
Valentina Noel says
@ Kevin: that’s exactly what I’m hoping for… the roster would be better suited with harris at the 3 and JC coming off the bench.
I don’t think it’s possible to sign both harris and aldridge or monroe! 24 M are not going to be enough barring any significant trade for cap space… but even without young’s 5M that’s not realistic to get it done.
Valentina Noel says
If we strike out on the main targets I wouldn’t regret going the Harris + Robin Lopez route, hoping the Magic don’t match!
Nick says
DeMarre Carroll epitomizes mediocrity at the SF, don’t understand the obsession with him. Not worth the money.
Especially when it seems like Jimmy Butler could be the guy we sign next offseason.
smokedaddy says
I’m with 14:1 and Valentina. With exception of Jordan, the unrestricted max guys don’t really fit the team’s needs or allow for other signings. I say make Harris a max offer and see what happens. If Orlando matches then I can live with Bryant/Young/Randle/Brown at SF. Don’t see anyone realistically available at SF besides Harris who is worth paying for including Carroll. But Harris is really good at both ends and underappreciated. http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/
What we want to do in large part depends on what we do with some of the current roster and their projected performance and positions. The wildcards here are Kobe, Randle, Nance & Brown. Clearly tho, we must have a solid, rim protecting center. We’ve actually got plenty of offense so Monroe doesn’t really compute, esp with his expectations. I’d love to have Chandler or 2nd choice R Lopez along with Ed Davis. Chandler, true, is kind of a poor man’s Jordan, but he’s a great teamate/leader and would come a lot cheaper. Good centers can play until almost 40 in this league. Ideally we could squeeze these 2 into the 24M along with Harris if Swaggy P could be traded? If not then I’d be really happy with one of those guys to go with Harris. If Orlando matches and no Harris then go with Darius’ plan C.
George says
@ Nick: Agree that DeMarre Carroll is just a guy. He’s 28 has likely peaked from what statistically is an average (at best) career. Plus he wants $10 mil a year!
Great teams minimize the number of wasteful contracts on their books. We’ve already got one with Nick Young and DeMarre Carroll would be another. I’d resign Wes Johnson at $1 mil before I signed Carroll.
Vasheed says
There are a couple of matters to address. First the Lakers should first pursue non restricted free agents. Free agents can be signed as of July 1st and restricted free agents not until July 10 and the previous teams gets 3 days to match. This mean that if the Lakers are to pursue a restricted free agent it is because of a failure to sign a non restricted free agent. So at this point only non restricted free agents should be pursued.
On the small side thanks to positional flexibility achieved by drafting Russell it is conceivable to address the hole at SF by moving Bryant there while the back court is manned by the tandem of Clarkson and Russell. Note Bryant has played significant minutes at SF during his career at a high level.
So the clear choice to address is a big. Now what kind of big? The Lakers definitely need another Center. I think Upshaw has the chance to be a game changer for the Lakers defense but, I oconsider hit future filled with too many doubts to be relied upon. Black has performed admirably as a back up big filling in where needed at PF or Center.
My first thoughts went to D. Jordan. Basically the rim protector that I hope Upshaw will be but with a lot less uncertainty. I would be very happy with this signing but, I have had some second thoughts. Small ball some times makes a traditional Center ineffective. Or foul shooting issues make it impossible to keep a guy like Jordan on the court. A guy who is paid max money you want to be able keep on the floor.
The guy at the top of my list is Aldridge. He is a PF with great touch around the rim and a proven commodity He can defensively play PF or slide down to Center to play small ball. With Aldridge you don’t need quite as great a rim defender as when Randle is starting at PF. Randle moves into a 6th man role where I think he would be a great asset,
With Aldridge at the PF I believe there are 1 too many PFs. I like Kelly a lot but I think he is the odd man out. Lance coming in has many of Kelly’s strengths but not as many weaknesses. Lance is a great athlete. Young as mistepped a few too many times with Scott. So I would look to send Young and Kelly’s salaries away. This would allow room to sign a mid tier Center. I would head line this group with guys like Koufos, Asik and R. Lopez.
So thats the way I would approach this. July 1st, first guy I would call is Aldridge.
Aaron says
but it is clear the Lakers would like to make a push now and then a big splash next summer to leap back into the contention
——————————————–
I don’t think it’s clear. There have been no specific/credible reports that the Lakers have targeted any free agents. The only specific report has been discussions about a certain package In a Cousins trade. That the lakers won’t give up players the Kings want. Up until this point it’s the only specific and detailed rumor surrounding the Lakers. What we know is that Mitch has said multiple times he isn’t interested in veteran players to win now. He said he wants younger players on the Lakers timetable. So that takes everyone off the table aside for Monroe.
Shaun says
Now an official FA – Luol Deng … could be someone we could get in the 7-10mil range on a multiyear contract … he turned down money from chicago as an FA then found no market for him and signed a cheapish deal in Miami … he would probably want more years to get as much guaranteed money as he can since this will likely be his last major contract and with Miami getting Winslow and looking at need space for whiteside next year while resigning dragic and wade this year … Luol is likely the guy that they will let walk … Miami will get hit with the repeater tax this year in a big way so resigning Luol for 10mil is really like 15-25mil for them
Averaged 15 and 5 last year while shooting 35% from 3 … but more importantly is good on the defensive side of the ball and is 6’9 as an SF … would give us length at the SF position and allow us to play super small if we wanted randle at the 5 in certain situations
If we were to somehow get both Monroe and Luol I’d be pretty happy
R says
Who would want Swaggy P? Other than the nickname, it’s not clear (to me) what value he brings, so it’s hard to believe he’d be desirable to another team in a trade, other than to make the numbers work somehow.
Same question in my mind about Kelly – but without a cool nickname.
Boss Hogg says
Go all in on DeAndre Jordan. Start the rookie Brown at the stretch 4. Let Clarkson and Jordan pick and roll teams to death with Russell and Kobe running off ball screens mixed with Russell and Brown spot up 3’s. Jordan puts this team in contention if used right.
Shaun says
NM Deng changed his mind and has now opted in …. gonna be a big taxday for the heat next year
Ed says
I still think we`re better of with Chandler or R Lopez on a shorter term deal. Gives more flexibility in both cap space and years. I`ll be surprised if Nick and Kelly are still on the roster in Oct/. But,Nick might have one more chance left in LA,certainly won`t be easy to find takers. All the LMA talk should be resolved quickly,one way or another.
Vasheed says
Young has value as a volume scorer. His contract might look slightly onerous but with the years attached by next summer his contract may actually look like a bargain by then. Really the only question is what can you expect in return? My answer would be not that much other than cap relief maybe a 2nd round pick.
Kelly fits the mold of the modern stretch four. He can shoot from three and put the ball on the floor if closed on too hard. He earns slightly more then a vet minimum which makes his contract appealing. Getting him off the books I think gets the Lakers about $700,00 more they can offer to a free agent. It seems small in the entirety of a team salary but while negotiating a 7-10 million contract it is significant. Kelly was much maligned last year since he was asked to play out of position as SF. He can’t play SF.
rr says
lls forward Jimmy Butler, who is a restricted free agent, is interested in signing a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Lakers, according to the Los Angeles Daily News’ Mark Medina. Unfortunately for Butler, the league’s salary cap rules won’t allow him to do so.
Theoretically, signing a one-year deal would be a good decision for the 24-year-old Butler to make. He’d be able to re-enter the free agency market in a year and take advantage of all that new TV money set to enter the league. Butler’s wariness of the Bulls has been reported; Yahoo Sports! Adrian Wojnarowski noted that Butler was interested in pursuing a short-term deal with the Bulls so he could become an unrestricted free agent.
—
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/6/29/8861249/Jimmy-butler-rumors-los-angeles-lakers-chicago-bulls
Justin says
I am not sure why so many people are big on Harris. He is a good young player, but still a role player. He scorers well, but does not defend and at PF is only an average rebounder. I don’t want to give near max to a player of that level. Plus I think Randle will play more SF than people think. His strengths are driving, passing, scoring around the basket and toughness. He will play both forward spots, same as Harris. But they aren’t playing together so you are limiting Randle to just get a player further along in development. Seems like a waste of resources to me.
And yes the Lakers should go all in for the LA, DeAndre, Gasol, Love group. You can not be picky. You go get the first one that will sign with you. People make it sound like you go down a list, but you need to offer them all a max contract and just take the first one to say yes. You then build around that. So then a guy like Robin Lopez may look good if you sign LA. And if you get one and are either an 8 seed or just outside the playoffs you can sell that to the 2016 FA. You are not getting the Durants of the world until you are a playoff team or really close.
Plus the Lakers will have a better shot at the 8th seed than people realize. If LA leaves Portland that team is out of the playoffs. Dallas if it gets DeAndre or stays with Chandler is still only fighting for a spot not a lock plus even a minor injury could be enough to take them out of their spot (Monta is likely gone from reports further weakening them). Twolves and Kings will both be fighting but extremely young. GS, Clippers (even if they lose DeAndre), Memphis, Rockets are locked in to spots (unless a major injury). Spurs are an unknown because we don’t know who will retire. Thunder will likely be healthy and also another lock. Suns will still be a 7-10th level team while the Jazz are the one team I could see most likely moving into the playoffs. NO should get in just because of AD. If the Lakers get LA or another top FA they should be a playofff team or really close to it. In that case Lakers will be a rising team and have a real shot are the 2016 FA.
Declining Teams: Dallas, Memphis, Spurs, Portland, Clippers (if they lose DeAndre)
Stuck in the Middle: Suns, Kings
Rising Teams: Lakers, Twolves, Jazz, NO
Still Top teams: GS, Thunder, Clippers (if they keep DeAndre), Houston
Ed says
Once Nance was selected, Kelly`s spot on the roster was taken by a more athletic,defensive, 4,with less shooting. As for Nick,I think it will come down to whether his salary is a fit in any deal the Lakers might want to make.
rr says
BTW, Butler is 25 going on 26, not 24.
Craig W. says
Ok, teams I am concerned about with more cap space than the Lakers $36M in salary for 2015/16:
Knicks: $31M in salary
Portland: $21M in salary
Teams within $10M of the Lakers:
Mavs: $44M in salary
Raptors: $42M in salary
Suns: $42M in salary
Celtics: $42M in salary
Jazz: $46M in salary
Hawks: $41M in salary
The remainder of low salary teams have to sign their own unrestricted free agents (RFAs), like the Cavs have to sign Lebron and Love.
How many of these teams are in ‘Win Now’ mode? I contend neither the Nicks or the Blazers. Of the others only the Hawks and Mavs qualify and I worry about LA to the Mavs, but they then couldn’t sign DeAndre Jordan.
Maybe, while we are making an offer to LA, we also make a contingent offer to Monroe and/or R. Lopez. Hold off on any offer to Harris until we know about our UFA deals.
Shaun says
Craig – would you be able to repost but with the actual space as opposed to current salary
Craig W. says
If Chicago offers Butler a Max deal it limits all other bidders to minimum 2 years without any options – a poison pill for all suitors but the Bulls – see link above to read about this. This would really make Butler mad, but he could only go the Monroe route and be a UFA next year or negotiate with the Bulls. Do not plan on Butler to the Lakers this year.
rr says
Do not plan on Butler to the Lakers this year.
—
I’m not. I only quoted it because so many people have brought him up. Butler is not getting out of Chicago this year. But if he wants out badly enough, he can sign the QO and hit UFA at age 26 next year with a greatly expanded cap.
Shaun says
66 million cap in 2015/2016
Ok, teams I am concerned about with more cap space than the Lakers $36M … only 24Mil after holds in salary for 2015/16:
Knicks: $31M in salary – 35M in Cap Space … likely closer to 29mil actual after holds … looking to fill 3 starter spots
Portland: $21M in salary- 45M in cap space … could be 40mil … but looking to fill 4 starting spots
Teams within $10M of the Lakers:
Mavs: $44M in salary – 22Mil in cap space
Raptors: $42M in salary – 24Mil in cap space
Suns: $42M in salary – 24Mil in cap space –
Celtics: $42M in salary – 24Mil in cap space
Jazz: $46M in salary – 20 Mil in cap space
Hawks: $41M in salary – 25 Mil in cap space
This is a simplification as I think a lot of cap space for each team is tied up into cap holds and roster holds
In terms of being the missing piece … we would have 4/5 starters possibly in place and only missing that 1 starter to round out the team plus bench players … in that way we are a bit better off than some of these team as they all have multiple holes to fill … all in all I think most teams will actually get weaker or more diluted outside of GS and the CAVS … the have nots will all be spending this year to bridge the gap … next year will be a more competitive NBA
If NY signs west, affalo, Lin and possibly Monroe they would for sure be better off than where they were these past few years … I see them as the main competition for us in FA since they have a legitimate superstar in his prime that can push the team towards contention with their additions plus Phil
Anonymous says
I’m surprised no one is interested in Draymond Green and his intangibles. He can play the 3-5 position, great defender, and can hit the three. My preference though is Jimmy Butler but it seems he’s out of reach. I also believe if the Lakers give upshaw a chance Lopez or chandler on the team would be beneficial to his developement
rr says
I think most people would like to have Green, but there is probably pretty much no chance that he will leave the champs for a 60-loss team.
DieTryin says
Given the amount of cash we have available some of the combinations mentioned above are not viable:
Busboys4me- Aldrigdge will be $20 mil/yr and Harris is not signing for $3 million
George – Monroe will get a near-max to max deal which again will not allow nearly enough for Harris.
Vasheed- completely agree our focus should be on unrestricted free agents. RFA’s are likely to be matched and meanwhile we have sit and wait potentially missing out on the bird in the hand. Hopefully jimmy butler signs a 1yr deal and we can make a run at him next year when he’s an UFA.
Biggest hole is true center. DJ would be coup but very very unlikely to happen. But the good news is that based on a statement he made recently he indicated that he would make decision within 5 days of free agency opening on July 1st. So at least we won’t be held hostage time wise.
I alsodon’t think we have much of a shot at Aldridge but would happily take him regardless of age and positional fit issues.
Our Plan B should be Davis or Chandler with R Lopez. And who knows maybe Uoshaw can shed his demons. For both our but mostly his sake I hope that happens
Just announced – Laker’s are NOT picking up Hill’s option. The right move
Darius Soriano says
Yeah, I don’t think Draymond is leaving the Warriors for *any* team.
Patrick Lanigan says
If we land DeAndre Jordan, I would expect the team to be able to land one of Butler or Durant next summer as the Lakers would be the best combination of money, location and talent in the league. Russell, Clarkson, Butler/Durant, Randle, and Jordan would be a very compelling team, so my preference is to go all in on DeAndre Jordan and if he isn’t coming, then focus on a cheap option like Lopez and some short term filler to load up again in the 2016 FA market.
DieTryin says
The only players less likely to leave their current team than Draymond Green:
1) LeBron James
2) Tim Duncan
Next topic
Reggie says
Well it seems like we are gonna be pretty fun to watch offensively next year and pretty bad defensively. Oh well, at least it’s better than the other way around. I won’t mind losing a bunch of games; just entertain me!
Craig W. says
Shaun,
The reason I put up the salary requirements is that they are the only truly know quantities at this time. I will try to compute the open space, based on assumptions today, but it will change. There are also rules that modify what clubs can do, regarding renouncing contracts, etc. Nothing in the NBA world is completely static, so we are not going to know the amount we can spend to the penny.
Justin says
I love the idea of Upshaw signing, but it would be hard to give him a long term contract and if you don’t the big benefit of signing him so young and cheap goes away. Still if he can help as a back center for the year (and lets face it he is a rookie so no way he helps as much as people pretend he can). Lakers just need one piece that they are moving forward with because next summer is when they will really go after people. Don’t worry about fit just get one and figure out in the future.
I also see us having a decent chance at DJ. If he doesn’t want to stay why do people assume Dallas is a lock for him. Dallas was better last year than us by a long shot but they got a year older and once you take away Chandler they aren’t much of an upgrade over the Lakers and may be worse if Monta also leaves. So I see it closer to being even than most people.
Craig W. says
So…
#1 is LA, but he would also use up most of our cap space
#2 is D. Jordan: he is more likely to go to Texas, unless they get LA.
#3 is Monroe: he would use less, because of years in league, but more likely go to Knicks, unless he likes our young pieces. Remember NYC has a history of bad, just like Detroit recently.
#4 is R. Lopez
#3 & #4 allow us to try for Harris and retain Davis
Ok, now we have decided the Laker’s marching orders. Next!!!
Shaun: sorry about the above comment – I asked that it be removed, but Darius has so much going on that I am not surprised. Thanks for your info.
Anonymous says
DieTryin : As a less than 6 year player Monroe’s max is about $15 – 16 Mil/yr. Which leaves $8 – 9 mi/yr for Harris. Note as much as I like Harris, I’m not sure he’s worth that much. But hey, if we offer it I’m sure the Magic will let him go.
Nick says
Justin,
Not sure how you can say that Randle and Harris are unable to play with eachother? Tobias is a tall & polished 3, Julius is an athletic & undersized 4 that MAYBE could translate into a fluid 3 guard. But let’s not kid ourselves, Julius is comfortable as a 4 and will have the most success there. If anything an oversized 3 that will help on the boards will help Julius.
Tobias has a great handle, range, speed, and is long enough to be a great perimeter 3 defender. Your claim that he “can’t defend is simply unwarranted. In the right system I have no doubt he will defend, and be a huge help on the boards.
Chibi says
If we are looking for a backup pg, what about Marcelo Huertas?
Justin says
@ Nick First I don’t buy the Randle is undersized. People say that and then talk about how the league is going smaller. Randle has the exact same standing reach as Draymond Green whom no one had a problem playing center in the finals and PF throughout the playoffs. Randle undersized is just people believing weirdly in an old NBA, but even then it isn’t true. at 6’9 and strong he is roughly the same size as a number of good NBA PF throughout history. That’s why I believe he can play both forward spots no problem. And those that think he is some kind of power post player have not seen him play much other than in college where Cal forced him to play. Go re-watch summer league and pre-season. The guy likes being on the wing and slashing to the basket. He has a great handle, good passing ability, and is strong enough that when he drives he goes where he wants (his strength also allows him to create space for his shot). Trust me this year people will get on board with him on the wing either as a stretch 4 or small forward.
The reason I don’t like Harris paired up with him is there fit. Harris plays both forward spots for the Magic. He is a good shooter and scorer. Harris is not a defender. Maybe it is the system but considering that the Magic won’t match any offer tells you what they think of him as a player. Over paying for a guy that does very similar things as the player you already have, but is not elite is how you get slotted in the never getting better. That’s why it makes sense for the Lakers to go after the Gasols, LA, Loves of the world. The Lakers would rather pay people one year deals and shot for superstars than overpay the Harris, Bledsoe (from last year) of the world.
It may or may not be the best strategy (although in the NBA I agree with it), but it has always been the Lakers one. Lakers are thinking long term. Anyways Nick we simply disagree and there is nothing wrong with that. We may both be right or both be wrong.
Baylor Fan says
I would not worry about the max free agents available this year. Instead I would like to see offers made to Danny Green and/or Kosta Koufos. I do not see San Antonio matching a fair market offer for Green and that would give the Lakers a very defensive minded wing who can kill 3’s. Koufos was an above average center for Denver and would give the Lakers the defense they need from that position. Given that Memphis needs to resign Gasol, they may pass on giving Koufos much of a raise.
George says
@ Craig W: I don’t think LA and the Lakers are a good fit. Why would he leave a franchise that is further along than the Lakers if his stated goal is to play for a championship? So, a 30 year old All Star who has a window of maybe 4 years would give up at least two of those years betting that a 60 loss team can develop its youth and add enough talent/depth to compete for a championship?
Acquiring LA is a move the Clippers make because they are on a similar time horizon (due to Chris Paul’s age) not the Lakers. If the Lakers sign him they are a Randle broken foot or a season ending Kobe injury away from selling Aldridge at the trading deadline.
If this is coming from the FO, then its just Jim worried about missing his self imposed deadline. Talk about putting personal priorities above the team. Face it – signing LA is just too risky for both sides.
Justin says
By the way, why do people think Tobias could be obtained with 8-9 million deal. If it is a fair deal the Magic will match. Tobias will get $12 million plus this year. Heck if you can get him under $10 million definitely do it, but he will get close to his max. That is part of why I am against signing him.
George says
Craig: Be careful what you wish for. The Knicks signed a 30 year old Melo to a five year max deal last season. One year later Melo is 31 and has four years left on his deal. Melo is unhappy about the state of the Knicks. The Knicks couldn’t rid themselves of Melo if they gave him away for free.
I don’t want to be stuck with a 32 year old Aldridge, with two years left on a max deal, who is unhappy because the Lakers rebuild is taking too long. Only the Lakers can’t move him because age has finally caught up with the ‘ adverse to going inside’ jump shooting forward.
It makes no sense for the FO to put themselves in that situation when the odds are we are more than two years away from competing. You sign a 30 year old when they are the missing piece of a championship team. Not when you’re haven’t sniffed .500 in two years.
Justin says
@George I think LA is a good chance of signing. If LA signs it is because he believes the Lakers will get someone in 2016 (like Durant. And there are a number of top tier players as FA in 2016 if you think Durant is a long shot). LA just wants to win one in the next 3-4 years because that’s his prime and people are split on whether the Lakers can attract the players within that time. If you do you sign now and get rewarded next year. If you don’t you go elsewhere (And remember the Lakers truly believe they will be back within that time frame because that is what Buss gave himself). Also remember the top two teams on LA’s list are Spurs one and Lakers two.
But Spurs would need to clear out space. Are the Spurs as much as a pull if they have to let Green, Splitter and someone else go? What if Duncan retires or Ginobili looks completely done. Spurs are reaching the phase where things can suddenly drop off at any moment. It was the same thing that happened to the Lakers in 2011. The next year they dropped off the map. Only Kwahi is definitely going to be a top player. Parker is also a lot less effective and maybe further declining than people realize. If you add in playoffs minutes he is one of the most played players left in the NBA and minutes count more than age.Plus the Spurs have to get rid of enough to get the max which is easier said than done when teams are all trying to get cap space.
And the Lakers would not need to worry about LA leaving. He is signing a 4 year contract. Even if he begs to be out of whatever team he signs with he has no means to leave. Much different than the Dwight or Kevin Love leverage. Lastly why is it that you think Randle or Kobe injury kills the Lakers but don’t account for a Kwahi or Duncan, Parker injury? No team is good when stars get injured. Look at the Thunder last year. Without Durant they went from the favorite to missing the playoffs. The Lakers have had two years of bad luck in injuries. That is the definition of fluke though. Odds say that the Lakers will be healthy this year. Remember how Steph Curry and Bogut were hurt two years in a row. Seemed pretty healthy this year. You only pay attention to Laker games so you ignore that a few years ago Portland had a string of bad injury years or Twolves this last year.
CHearn says
Please pass on Aldridge, he was a central cog on a Portland team replete with young players at every position, a decent center, and a sexy point guard. Year-after-year his teams failed to advance in the playoffs. Why would he be better in Los Angeles with a young unproven team than he was in Portland with a young seasoned team and a rising point guard? No to Aldridge.
Sooner rather than later I wish the Lakers would recruit players that over-achieve and not players that merely meet expectations. Basketball players with mental frameworks like Draymond Green, Dwayne Wade, Steve Nash, LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, Kobe Bryant, et.al.
Please, no to Deng. He does not play the game the way he did earlier in his career with Chicago.
Roy Jones says
There’s another option I don’t think he brought up. The Lakers can wait to sign their draft picks until they acquire free agents. This would give them additional cap space, while allowing them to still be able to sign their rookies.
Nick says
Justin,
Ya no big deal, I agree “undersized” isn’t the right word for Julius, he just isn’t a very big power-forward. When I say that it’s not a knock on him, but he isn’t the “Tim Duncan/ lamarcus Aldridge” type 4. Which I actually prefer.
I just don’t see how Julius being a stretch 4, diminishes Tobias Harris being able to play with him at all? That makes no sense. If anything having two long and interchangeable versatile forwards should be a plus.
And as for Tobias not being a “defender.” I get so sick of people trying to place players in buckets when it doesn’t apply. For example, I wouldn’t say Trevor Ariza is simply a “defender” because he is best known for playing good D. He has other aspects to his game.
Just because Tobias’ greatest attribute involves his scoring versatility doesn’t disqualify him from playing good defense – that logic is flawed. He has great size, length, and good quickness at the 3, in the right defensive SYSTEM, there is no question he can guard. Just because players get steals, or blocks doesn’t make them great defenders. I believe the system, and everyone playing their role in that system makes a good defense.
And dude, this guy is 22 (3 months older than our rookie Anthony Brown). Tobias is only going to get better.
As for the Magic not offering him a max…. They’re the magic, historically poor judges of talent.
I agree no big deal having different opinions, it’s what makes this fun haha
CHearn says
@George, agreed.
Please pass on Aldridge, he was a central cog on a Portland team replete with young players at every position, a decent center, and a sexy point guard. Year-after-year his teams failed to advance in the playoffs. Why would he be better in Los Angeles with a young unproven team than he was in Portland with a young seasoned team and a rising point guard? No to Aldridge.
Sooner rather than later I wish the Lakers would recruit players that over-achieve and not players that merely meet expectations. Basketball players with mental frameworks like Draymond Green, Dwayne Wade, Steve Nash, LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, Kobe Bryant, et.al.
Please, no to Deng. He does not play the game the way he did earlier in his career with Chicago.
R says
the Lakers have had a lot of injuries the past two years true but this doesn’t mean the odds favor them having fewer injuries this upcoming season. Evan if injuries are a random event – like coin flips – past coin flips don’t determine the results of the next coin flip. The coin doesn’t “know” it’s past history. I don’t think injuries are random, however. Player age, playing style, mileage, innate durability (whatever THAT means), and past injury history all play a role and interact in mysterious ways. The Lakers are getting younger however and that should give us hope.
Aaron says
Justin,
I think Randle can play the four in spots. But I think he will be more successful on both sides of the ball at the SF position. Green is an undersized PF and outweighs Randle by 30 LBS at least. Randle is basically 6-7. Look at him next to Kobe this season.
Patrick Lanigan says
For those making the analogy of Randle to Draymond Green, there are two significant differences between the two: Green is an elite defender AND a knock down shooter from behind the 3 point line. Randle is, at this point, neither.
kareem says
Justin, Harris is the perfect candidate for offering a 4 year max. 15 mil will be a bargain in 2 years when the cap increases dramatically. His salary as an ascending young talent will be a paltry 17%. Chandler Parsons, Nicolas Batum, and Paul George are 3 SFs with similar contracts now. Harris has the highest PER of the three from last year (George was injured), he’s a great positional rebounder, and has a true shooting percentage comparable to Parsons. Plus we get his contract at a 30% discount compared to the next year. I think that we need to pitch DJ+ Aminu or Danny Green. If we don’t get DJ, go for Robin Lopez who is a below average starting center, a great backup if we upgrade through trade or free agency, and highly tradeable. If those pitches don’t go through, go for Harris or some of the other RFAs mentioned here.
Keno says
Word is LA will sign with Mavs. Best option for Lakers could be Chandler who is free agent and is rim protecter they could use. They still could have $10 million to add a small forward like Harris.
Darius Soriano says
Roy Jones,
The rookies have cap holds which basically do not translate to real savings in the way you describe. Their cap holds are for 100% of their 1st year rookie salary. The only difference in savings is that many times rookies get up to 120% of their contract amounts, since that is the most above the range teams can sign their rookies for.
Patrick Lanigan,
Draymond shot 33.7% from behind the arc during the regular season and 26.4% from behind the arc in the playoffs. Draymond is certainly a threat from behind the arc, but “knock down shooter” is being generous when describing how good he his from 3 point territory.
George says
My point about Randle is that we don’t know if he’s brittle or not. Since he’s a large part of the Lakers’ attraction it seems premature for Aldridge to assume Randle will be his running mate for four years.
I’m just not a fan of signing older players – you end up getting one great season and one so/so season with two forgetful ones to finish out the contract. He’s got 23,000 minutes on his legs. He took more 3 pt shots last season than in his entire career before – now is that because 3 pt shots are in vogue or because as he ages he prefers to be away from contact? His assists were the lowest they have been in 7 years (he played in 71 games last season – for comparison he set a career high for assists in 55 games in ’11/12).
When I look at his stats I see a player that has peaked. So the question is does the FO want to pay full price for the downside of Aldridge’s career? I personally would not, unless I was one player away from winning it all. The Lakers are not close so the investment in Aldridge makes little sense to me.
Monroe does make sense as his stats have a very good chance of improving over the life of a four year contract. Its not that I’m pro Monroe either. I would select a 25 year old Aldridge over a 25 year old Monroe, but I can’t pick a 30 year old Aldridge over a 25 year old Monroe – just can’t do it.
I could even envision signing Jordan since his defensive prowess will still be substantial four years from now. However, I have reservations about Jordan. He is a black hole offensively – if you pass it into him he will shoot it. He’s not a good passer so he’s not part of the offensive flow – he’s the end point of the offensive flow. Plus the fact remains that he can’t shoot free throws. This makes for those weird offensive/defensive switches at the end of close games that usually end up with the wrong personnel being on the floor at a critical juncture.
DieTryin says
@CHearn @George Very solid arguments re:Aldridge. My bias towards being ok with a LA signing is probably more about my desire to avoid another year of free agency whiffs. But of course some of these have been a blessing in disguise. eg No Carmelo.
And as I mentioned earlier it is v unlikely that either LA or DJ come here. As to Cousins the “deal” proposed, obviously by the Kings, was so deliberately noxious (#2 pick, Clarkson, Randle + picks) that there was never any chance we would agree. At least Ranadive could say “well, we tried” lol
As good as Cousins is he does not warrant emptying the cupboards and evicerating the team.
Chibi says
Randle and Green are both 230 pounders now.
Justin says
@Aaron I agree with you. Randle can play both well and I think in three years the 3 is his best position. But Randle is not 6’7. Every player is measured in shoes. So the additional 1.25 inches is standard across the board. Blake Griffin by the way without shoes is almost exactly Randles size and no one has trouble calling him a true four. By the way look back at the Dwight, Kobe Gasol pictues of them for promos and on the court. Kobe and Dwight look the same size and Gasol is not that much taller (Dwight’s true size is supposedly 6’9). My point is you can not tell the difference between players standing next to each other in pictures unless the are back to back. And for the record Randle was measured at exactly 6’7.75. Which makes him 6’9 with shoes. Draymond Green without shoes was measured at 6’5.75. Draymond has a longer reach which gives them the exact same standing reach of 8’9 inches.
@Kareem and @Nick you have convinced me to your side. I am now thinking they could play similar to Atlanta and just switch everything. Thanks for helping go deeper into thinking about defense. Still not sure if he is a good deal at $15 million, but I don’t think it would be crippling either. I would be far more comfortable if he was closer to $10-12.
George says
As stated, Deng is staying in Miami. My point here is that Tom Thibodeau rode him so hard as the coach in Chicago that Deng truly is a shell of himself at the age of 30. Deng averaged 27 to 39 minutes a game under Thibodeau. I cringe whenever someone suggests that Thibodeau should be the coach of the Lakers – he simply works his better players too hard. Minutes matter.
I noted that Aldridge has 23,000 career regular season minutes. Interesting comparison: James Worthy also had 23,000 minutes after his age 29 season. James’ age 30 season was injury shortened although his per game numbers were not much of a drop from his previous career highs. James never had another injury free year and retired from the game at the age of 32.
Minutes matter.
I know that many of you will compare Alridge’s total with Lebron’s, who through his age 30 season has racked up 35,769 regular season and 7,561 playoff minutes for a total of 43,330 minutes. Now James clearly is a freakish athlete but there’s a chance that he simply hits the proverbial wall (like Kobe) and does not achieve the all time records that many project for him.
Another side note: Greg Monroe has played 11,818 minutes in his career.
Minutes matter.
Patrick Lanigan says
Darius, point taken. My point is that today Green is analogous to Randle only in terms of their body type. At this point, Green is the radically better player than Randle and, in my view, much better suited to the stretch 4 role. He’s also 6 years older, so this is in no way a knock on Randle who, I think, has potential to be the same kind of player.
DieTryin says
Keno- Doubt greatly that Harris can be signed for $10m/yr.
But I”d be more than good with Chandler/Harris. Plus Chandler vet presence would be a plus
Sean.is says
I think people have to realise, Lakers will not be able to address EVERYthing in this one offseason. Even with $20M+ cap space, IF they were lucky enough to successfully sign any of the max money players (including those who are RFAs like Jmmy Butler), they will not have enough money to sign any other significant piece like Danny Green or Demarre Carroll who may or may not warrant a max but will at least command 8 figure salaries. There will be players available who are a notch below the likes of Green or Carroll but at this point, these players may not be noteworthy.
Lakers will likely have to choose between going with one max player and going with two impact players. For what it’s worth, it does sound like the former is the Lakers’s plan A.
I do hope that the Lakers will be able to pry away one max player – Deandre Jordan, Tobias Harris, LA, Gasol, or Monroe – and then fill out the roster as they see fit. Lakers do not have to build the entire team in the offseason either, they can always try to look for opportunities during the season
Buster Jones says
Good to see more people boarding the Tyson Chandler train.
He’s from Compton, so he’s a local boy. His skills should age pretty well and he’s only played 1000 or so games in his career, post season inclusive. His PER last season was over 20, and he played 75 games.
He’s a terrific team defender, good rim protector and fantastic mentor for the younger players. He stays out of trouble and plays hard AND smart.
If we could sign him to a three year / $30 million, that’d be a great upgrade from our current center situation. Plus we would have another $10 million or so this year to play around with (and more next year).
Mansa says
I’m all aboard the Tyson Chandler Train. I could see us signing Chandler and Tobias Harris. Could you imagine a line up of Russel, Kobe, Harris, Randle, and Chandler with Clarckson as our 6th man? Sadly, I think we are going the max route. And I can’t get mad if we get Aldridge, I understand the Lakers are setting up more for next year than this year. But getting Chandler and Harris builds a better team now while still keeping our flexibility. But we’ll see, we don’t know what’s gonna happen. I pray the Lakers go this round, but they will go for the big name.
J C says
Chandler and Harris sounds like a good combined solution to meet our two positional needs, while adding a veteran (champion) presence at a reasonable cost in Chandler.
Chandler
Randle
Harris
Kobe
Clarkson/Russell
This starting five is so much better than last year’s it won’t even be like watching the same team.
Justin says
@patrick I see Randle as a bigger high potential Draymond Green. No question Green is better now. But when Randle is 25 he should be much better than Green. People call Randle undersized when they don’t realize there are only a few big post up power forwards left in the game. Size only matters for things like posting up or shooting over the top of a player. In 5 years LA is on the decline, ZBo is a shell of himself, Etc. the two PFs Randle will have trouble with are Anthony Davis and KAT. So size is no longer an issue. You can keep guys like ED Davis for that
Mansa says
@Justin, I’ve been saying the same thing about Randle. I don’t think people realize how good this kid can be, like second best player on the team good.
George says
I’m hoping that Russell ends up being our best player, a #1. If a pass first PG is the best player by definition it makes all of your other players better. Think of Magic in the ’80s. Not saying that Russell is Earvin but you get the idea. Randle, Clarkson etc all become more effective team oriented– just creates a positive synergy that makes champions.
I’m not a big fan of Jeanie and Jim but they have landed on their feet –talk of the Lakers demise is greatly exaggerated.
Ed says
If DJ leaves the Clipps, both LA teams might be in play for both Lopez and Chandler. The Lakers have given no hint as to which affordable SF`s they favor.It might be Oct before Randle has his body and game back to 100%.
Robert Fisher says
After reading all the comments I would like to set a general direction for the 2015-16 season. Play the kids to develop them. Win more games but don’t make the playoffs, and hope the bouncing balls put the Lakers in the top 3 so Mitch can get that 2016 pick.
Pick up Sacre’s option, waive the Vander Blue qualifying offer, keep the non-guarantees of Clarkson (duh), Black, and Jabari Brown, and with the salaries of Russell and Nance, plus 3 roster spot cap holds, the Lakers salary is then 45,206,763 with a projected cap of $67.1 mil as of last April. Cap space is then $21,893,237, however each time they sign a free agent, then $525,093 roster spot cap up to 13 count becomes available. Meaning if you sign LA DJ, for the second tier max of 18.9 mil then only 18.4 mil reduces the $21,893,237 to $3,493,237, or offer the first tier max to Tobias Harris at $15.8 and it leaves 6.1 mil cap space. these are examples and don’t count the actual max relative to the number of years the player have been in the league, just the first and second tier maximums.
Now let’s look at the youth movement.
Guards
Russell, Clarkson, Jabari Brown
SF – both not guaranteed to make team
Anthony Brown
Branson Ashley
SF/PF
Randle, Nance
PR – Kelly
C – Sacre, Upshaw who is not guaranteed to make the team
Looking at lineups, if you have Russell, Clarkson, Kobe, Randle, and Center, then there is no backup PG, so bring in a vet to run the second unit.
If Butler signs his “regular” QO and becomes UFA in 2016, and Kobe plays SF this year, then the emphasis goes on the Center rim protector, rebounder, scorer, and passer. With more shooters this year, perimeter offense isn’t as important.
Best option is of course Gasol, but that won’t happen. And I have to ask, how will a LA & Randle defense be? Maybe better to add role player vets like PG, C, and take the year to develop the youth including Kelly and give Young the year to straighten up, miss the playoffs, and hope for the miracle Ping-Pong ball bouncing the Lakers into top 3.
Teams have to spend at least 90% of cap, so if cap roll over is an option, then that is 6.7 mil added to the 2016 projected cap of 89 mil. Keep in mind the 2016-2017 Maximum tiers are 21.0, 25.3, 29.5 mil each, and LA can sign a 1+1TO and move to the top tier in 2016. However, with Kobe’s 25 mill coming off, and the cap increase plus the 6.7 mil rollover, the cap space would be approximately 53 mil not counting salary increases for signed players, at which point you could sign Durant 25.3 & LA 29.5 with some clearing off the books of Kelly, Sacre, as examples. You can be sure Mitch and the front office staff are looking further down the road.
Here is the link to the tiers to think with.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/projecting-2015-2016-max-salary-tiers/
Assuming that Upshaw is the shot blocking rim protector who develops some good offense to draw double teams and can pass out, you don’t get LA or DJ, Butler signs his regular QO and comes to Lakers in 2016, and you give the kids a year to develop, with Kobe gone, the lineup could be Russell, Clarkson, Butler, Randle, Upshaw, and you could have a second unit of PG?, Jabari Brown, Anthony Brown, Larry Nance, and Tarik Black.
Another thing I haven’t see anyone mention is that it looks like there will be a lot of very good players signing 1+1PO contracts, which means the 2016 summer will have lots and lots of top players, not just Kevin Durant.