The start of Lakers’ raining camp is less than two weeks away. During the seven days or so the Lakers will spend in Hawaii, the players will start to get used to Byron Scott, each other, and begin the process of becoming the team which will begin the regular season one month later.
During the 29 days between camp starting and opening night against the T’Wolves, there will be training camp battles, philosophies to refine and install, and hard questions to begin to address. The most difficult of those questions, though, may just be who ends up being the final group of players on opening night. As we’ve discussed very often, the Lakers have some tough decisions to make regarding who makes the team and who gets cut. Training camp and preseason will influence those determinations, but so will other variables (contract status, off-court risks, etc).
But rather than wait for all this play out, why not try to determine who makes the final cut? With that, then, here are three (wat too early) roster projections for the opening night Lakers. (Note, I am only including players who have been signed to a contract as of September 16th. Sorry Metta.)
Go With the Chalk
PG: D’Angelo Russell, Marcelo Huertas
SG: Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams, Jabari Brown
SF: Kobe Bryant, Nick Young, Anthony Brown
PF: Julius Randle, Brandon Bass, Ryan Kelly, Larry Nance Jr.
C: Roy Hibbert, Tarik Black, Robert Sacre
This version of the team is, essentially, last year’s group with every new addition which the team has any sort of viable investment making the cut. Huertas may not have any guarantees in his contract, but he stays over Michael Frazier and Jonathan Holmes (who do have small guarantees), due to depth needs at point guard.
Jabari Brown and Tarik Black, also on non-guaranteed deals, make the team because the Lakers have already invested a year into their development and still like their upside as role players. Sacre and Kelly stay due to their guaranteed contracts and, despite some fans’ feelings, their value as an end of the bench big (Sacre) and a stretch forward (Kelly) — both positions which represent a need on every NBA roster.
Lastly, even though this roster has 15 players, keeping both Black and Brown gives the Lakers some flexibility since either can be waived in January should a player they want to add shakes free via waivers or if they need to make a cut to accommodate a trade. Further, since the Lakers can assign up to four players as affiliates to the D-Fenders, cutting Holmes, Frazier, and Upshaw while still being able to keep them in the pipeline is a viable route.
Part Upside, Part Playing it Safe
PG: D’Angelo Russell, Marcelo Huertas
SG: Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams
SF: Kobe Bryant, Nick Young, Anthony Brown, Jonathan Holmes
PF: Julius Randle, Brandon Bass, Ryan Kelly, Larry Nance Jr.
C: Roy Hibbert, Tarik Black, Robert Sacre
The only difference between this roster and the one above it is I have swapped out Jabari Brown for Jonathan Holmes. While Brown offers depth at shooting guard and the potential for scoring pop off the bench, he’s also redundant with Lou Williams (and Nick Young) as a gunner off the bench. Considering the Lakers could always slide Kobe or Young down to SG, the extra depth there is isn’t really necessary. Also, cutting Brown costs you nothing while cutting Holmes costs you 100K. I don’t think the money matters (not that small amount, anyway), but it’s worth mentioning.
As for Holmes, in summer league he flashed real three point shooting ability. Combined with his good size as a tweener forward who will fight on the glass and work hard in trying to guard both forward spots, you can see the upside he poses as a stretch four who at least will battle beyond his measurements defensively. A player like him offers real competition for Kelly and Nance Jr. in practices and, should a deal become available, insurance should one of them depart. Gambling he can develop into a viable role player seems no different than gambling on Jabari Brown, only Holmes offers more size and plays a more premium position in today’s NBA. So he sticks.
Eat the Money, Take the Risks
PG: D’Angelo Russell, Marcelo Huertas
SG: Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams
SF: Kobe Bryant, Nick Young, Anthony Brown, Jonathan Holmes
PF: Julius Randle, Brandon Bass, Larry Nance Jr.
C: Roy Hibbert, Tarik Black, Robert Sacre, Robert Upshaw
Are the Lakers’ willing to dump some money and gamble on bringing on two additional rookies to the three they already drafted? My gut says they won’t, but if they do the roster above is their most likely path to do so.
For this version, Jabari Brown is still replaced by Jonathan Holmes whose inclusion as a (potentially) versatile forward also means Ryan Kelly is shown the door. The Lakers have invested time, money, and resources into Kelly’s development and still see talent in him. But the oft injured stretch four showed last season he could not effectively moonlight as a small forward and that lack of versatility dooms him here. Bringing on Holmes and drafting Nance means Kelly is free to go, though the Lakers eat his $1.7 million in salary for this upcoming season. I truly believe if the Lakers could trade him without bringing back an asset they would, but, for the purposes of this discussion, they simply let him go. (As an aside, I do not think he would be unemployed very long should this happen.)
Taking Kelly’s place on the roster is Robert Upshaw. The once (but hopefully not still) troubled big man could easily end up cut and an affiliate player on the D-Fenders, but the Lakers gamble on him maturing enough that his physical and athletic qualities manifest enough to tap into his tremendous upside. With a minimal guarantee in his contract, Upshaw could always be waived in January with no future cost, balancing the upfront risk they take by keeping him on the roster.
Some might question why I have Kelly getting cut instead of Robert Sacre, especially since the latter plays the same position as Upshaw and makes less money than Kelly. The answer is insurance. If Upshaw does get cut, has issues that affect his availability, or just ends up in the D-League for the season (with the Lakers still controlling his rights), the team would only have two centers on the roster in Hibbert and Black. Keeping Sacre in the fold alleviates any depth concerns at that spot and does so with a guy the organization and coaches know and believe in.
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There are other ways to manipulate the 18 players invited to camp to create a final roster not discussed above. Some might want Kelly and Sacre out of the mix while keeping J. Brown, Holmes, and Upshaw. Finding a spot for Metta World Peace might end up being a necessity if discussions progress down that path any further.
Of the options above, however, I’d argue the first is the most likely and the third is the least likely. The Lakers have added enough young players and balanced the roster with a nice group of veterans. The guys under guaranteed deals have those contracts because the front office believes in them (even if some fans don’t). Of course, this will all play out in camp anyway, but it’s interesting to think about where the chips might fall.
Xavier says
I would question more Huertas capacity to make the team. He’s a 32 year old bench player from Barca.
If it’s down to the 15th men: I’d rather have Jabari who I think will be a great career 4.
Trading away Young, Kelly and Sacre would be ideal. One of the rookies might also be traded away due to their large number. A 5 or 3 in return would be ideal. As we have plenty of 4’s and 2’s – whatever that still means on a team “going small”. Future picks would also be nice as we wasted pretty much the next few years on Nash & co…
Frazier-Upshaw-Holmes provide defender candidates and outsiders with a chance for a spot.
I also think Bass and Black will play a lot at the 4. Hibbert might not play huge minutes, he never did. So having Upshaw with upside instead of Sacre with very little, at this point I think it’s better to gamble, we’re not close to contending for a ring (remember one thing: Mitch can trade).
I see Randle as a 3 – he can develop his game, but without range or defence, as the season starts it might only be good as a Kobe back-up with better upside than Young at 3 duties. Playing Randle at the 4 on defence might be too risky, so hearing Kobe might do that, can only reinforce the notion that the coaching staff is already seeing who can represent regular minutes and who represents major upsides to build slowly without burning them on one each end of the floor.
Williams and Young provide the offensive thrills in case of a resting Kobe. He played a combined 41 games in the last 2 seasons and his going to martyr his body, whilst well-payed, to a 20th season of NBA. Respect. I was following each year.
Then how long will it be possible to keep the same coach without too much media pressure if we fall too deep, whilst the less astute fans will scream for ridiculous trades? A lot of unknown…
The kids have to grow. We still got Mitch and analytics coming-up; and a crazy bunch of gunners – that’s entertainment right there.
The Lakers need to attract top tear players again – you cannot do that without building a strong base of young players. Look at the warriors, thunders, clippers, spurs…
How NBA-ready Randle & Russell, both 20, will determine a lot in terms of wins. Defence needs a lot of work.
We’ll anyway enjoy the resumed explosion of Clarkson 😉
Thomas Rickard says
I think Lakers should probably try and trade/dump Kelly, he’s had leg problems both years and didn’t really so any significant improvement from his rookie year, if he’d showen that he could consistently shoot the 3 instead of giving that fake maybe he’d be worth watching another year but it looks like there won’t be a lot of playing time for him
Rico Tico says
Marcelo Huertas, Jabari Brown, Tarik Black will make the team.
Adding Robert Upshaw or Johnathan Holmes would depend on us letting go of Ryan Kelly or Robert Sacre. They will probably go to the D-League.
If I was running things , I would welcome Holmes and Upshaw and trade / drop Kelley and Sacre.
Angel P says
I’ll love to have MWP already to put Kobe on his natural position just because D’Angelo doesn’t run. Let’s say this one.
PG) D’Angelo Rusell, Clarkson, Huertas
SG) Kobe Bryant, Lou Williams
SF) Metta World Peace, Nick Young, Anthony Brown
PF) Julius Randle, Brandon Bass, Ryan Kelly, Larry Nance Jr.
C) Roy Hibbert, Tarik Black, Upshaw
Starting 5:
D’Angelo Rusell
Kobe Bryant
Metta World Peace
Julius Randle
Roy Hibbert
Off The Bench: Straight out of Compton
Jordan Clarkson
Lou Williams
Nick Young
Brandon Bass
Tarik Black
Then you have: The Insurance Bench
Marcelo Huertas
Anthony Brown
Ryan Kelly
Larry Nance Jr.
Robert Upshaw
With that second unit you’ll have 125 points per game, I bet. And with the Starting 5 you will control the tempo and have a very good defense as coach Scott preach.
I can’t wait for the season to start, Go Lakers!!!
Moho says
PG Russell, Huertos
SG Clarkson Lou Williams Jabari
SF Kobe, Swaggy A.Brown
PF Randle, Bass, Nance, Holmes
C Hibby, Black, Upshaw
with Fraizer on the D-fenders
Assuming we can’t trade Swaggy that is my perfect team for the year
Prob says
Still think Bass starts over Randle the first couple games of the season. Randle will eventually become the starting PF the rest of the season if he plays well. I also think Russell comes off the bench first couple games too.
So the line would be:
Clarkson, Russell, Huertas
Kobe, Williams,
Metta World Peace, N.Young, A.Brown
Bass, Randle, Kelly, Larry Nance
Hibbert, Black, Upshaw/Sacre
Remember Byron likes playing his vets over his rooks.
Vic Rufes says
Roster:
Pg
Russell, Huertas,
Sg
Clarkson
Lou
JBrown
Sf
Kobe
Young
ABrown
Pf
Randell
Bass
Nance Jr
C
Hibbert
Black
Upshaw
We need decent defenders and shooters!
Qwuor says
I don’t see why everyone in laker world is fascinating with kobe being a sf. He is one of the worse 3s in recent years, and that’s even when healthy. Just check out his defensive Per on 82games.Com. I will post it below
2015: 11.4 offnsv Per. 15.4 defnsv
2014: 7.5 offnsv Per 13.6 defnsv
2013. 24.5 offense Per. 16.8 defnsv
2011. 25.6 offense Per. 13.6 defnsv
http://www.82games.com/1415/14LAL7.HTM
Even nick young has been better than kobe defending the 3 last couple of yrs. 10.9 defensive Per is great. We all know nick can score
2015. 13.8 offsv. 10.9 defsv.
2014. 17.3 offsv. 13.2 defsv
http://www.82games.com/1415/14LAL10.HTM
Qwuor says
Add to the fact that kobe doesn’t have the footspeed to get past the 3s in this league anymore. They are taller and will contest his shot way better than a defensive sg would.
He can’t post them up all sf all season long because they’re bigger than him. It will lead to more inefficient nights for kobe.
Kobe is still more effective against sgs than sfs.
Not to mention he’d probably be easier on his body defending a sg instead of a sf.
I mean who is easier for kobe to guard James harden or lebron?
Klay Thompson or kd/melo
No brainer.
Nick young should be our starting 3. He spreads the floor better for kobe and rusell.
Clarkson should go for most improved or 6th man of the yr..controlling the bench..and pushing the pacenter like Jordan farmar..did
Qwuor says
Nick Young led the Los Angeles Lakers in net per the last 2 season. I know take a breath and let that sink in.
2015
13.9 Offsnv per 10.9 defsnv. +2
2014
17.8 offsnv per. 13.6 defsnv. + 4
http://www.82games.com/1415/1415LAL.HTM
Breaking News: Nick young is not our problem.
OK now let’s move on.
Give nick young the comfort to start alongside 2 other shot creators in kobe bryant and
D’Angelo (who’s is going to be a great pick and roll expert in a few yrs, book it).
Nick young will absolutely fry as a floor spacer and I’m betting my paycheck, as focused as he is this yr..u will see a renewed enthusiasm for defense.
Can’t u imagine the beauty of kobe posting up sgs.. and having D’Angelo Russell and nick young absolutely opening up a 3pt blood bath on the league as floor spacers ..
Or
Russell pick and rolling with Brandon bass and having nick young and the great kobe bryant spacing the floor.
I’m too excited
Now imagine if that was Metta spacing the floor building bricks all game.
Nick young should start because he has the best plus minus at the 3spot. Rest of the sgs we have don’t have enough experience to warrant the starting spot just yet
Robert Fisher says
First, I didn’t know about the ability to assign up to four players beyond the 15 to the D-Fenders and keep their rights. In that case, number 1 is it. Upshaw, Holmes, and Frazier can get playing time with the D-Fenders, while we have until Jan to see how Black, Brown, Huertas, and Kelly do.
Leaving out potential trades and whatever extraordinary things that may happen in training camp, I see the following.
Jabari Brown came in late last season and proved himself. He should stay to see if he can keep going with his good play. Kelly has had injury issues and hasn’t had the chance to shine as a stretch 4, so since this is a development year, then let’s see what he can do, last chance though. I totally understand that Sacre has to stay until we find out about Upshaw. Black is not going anywhere.
Of course this leaves out Metta. I had a funny thought of him going down to the D-Fenders though.
Robert Fisher says
Now about the starting 5 – I am sorry, but I don’t see Russell starting until later in the season, and he may follow Clarkson’s path that worked so well last season – some time in the D-League, time watching and learning and subbing, and then into the fire.
So what does that do to the starting five? Who starts at point? My guess would be Clarkson.
Now do we really expect Randle to start early on? Doubt that too. So then what?
Clarkson at point, with Kobe and Young to cover the wing – who cares who is SG or SF – Hibbert at Center, and if Randle doesn’t start , then who at PF? That would be Bass.
Then for the second unit you put in Russell along with the veteran Williams, Black at Center, and a combination of Randle and Nance or Randle and Anthony Brown. What might be interesting about a Randle/Nance combo is they should be able to cover both the 3 & 4 interchangeably, as can any combination of current PG/SGs can do.
Harold Thompson says
Lakers. Keep Metra world peace,Kobe, Roy, robert upshaw and Michael, and handle,Anthony Brown, Nance,Williams, Clarkson,huertas ,bass,and black ,Holmes and Russel. That my picks for lakers from lakers fan Harold. Thompson. Long time lakers fan all the way back 1987.
Rick in Seattle says
Team Strengths: Lakers have three young players who are their core for the future: Russell, Clarkson & Randle
Team uncertainty: Hibbert was acquired at a bargain-basement price. He is on a unique one-year tryout. If he has a successful year, he likely resigns. Otherwise Lakers keep looking. Upshaw and Black have potential but development takes time.
Team Weakness: Small Forward position is arguably the weakest position. Its Kobe’s last year & Young is not a long term solution. It’s possible that one of the rookies: (Holmes, Brown or Nance) show potential to develop into a starting-quality SF. But development takes time, and for this season, the future is uncertain.