The Lakers beat the Blazers for their third preseason win, though their first in a full length game against an NBA team. Funny how the exhibition season works, sometimes. This game was meaningful, but not because it led to a win. As we wrote before the game, this was likely the last chance for the bubble players to make an impression before cuts were made. With the game in the books, then, the coaches and front office have to make the tough decisions on who to release and who to keep on the final roster.
As with any roster decision, more variables than “can he play?” will be considered. The Lakers are balancing short term goals of winning as many games as possible versus long term goals of having the best roster they can in two to three years. There are also financial considerations — even if only small ones — on whether a player has any guaranteed salary or not. There’s also positional balance and depth considerations.
With that said, and before we get to who I think will make the final roster, a couple of notes about positional battles and my general thoughts on how the factors above might be weighed against each other…
*The toughest decision will likely end up being whether the team can keep 4 centers and at what expense that comes from. Hibbert is a guarantee, but none of the Sacre/Black/Upshaw trio has played particularly poorly and all have had enough moments to make their case for belonging on the final roster.
*Untangling the wing depth will be difficult — especially with Kobe being such a major part of the roster while still posing questions about his availability due to health concerns. If Kobe was 100% reliable, I’d imagine cutting any/all of the Jabari Brown/Metta World Peace/Michael Frazier trio becomes easier. But, since that’s not the case, you have to wonder if keeping one or more becomes a priority. If the answer to that question is yes, then you have to decide which one and why one over the other. Each has their strengths and weaknesses and a case can be made for any over the others.
*I feel bad for Jonathan Holmes. The guy didn’t get his chance to run in the 4th quarter of the game against the Warriors due to the game being called early because of the slippery floor. So he ends up getting burn during the 2nd quarter of Monday’s game, dives for a loose ball, and promptly separates his shoulder. He’s now out indefinitely and, in my opinion, likely to be cut. Yes he has a $100K guarantee on his salary and it may have been he would have gotten cut anyway, with the hope he clears waivers and could be assigned to the D-Fenders. But to get hurt the way he did after not seeing as many minutes in the preseason as he’d surely hoped, it’s just a bummer.
With all that out of the way, here is my final roster projection before cuts are announced:
PG: D’Angelo Russell, Marcelo Huertas
SG: Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams
SF: Kobe Bryant, Nick Young, Anthony Brown
PF: Julius Randle, Brandon Bass, Ryan Kelly, Larry Nance Jr.
C: Roy Hibbert, Tarik Black, Robert Sacre, Robert Upshaw
A few notes on this projection:
*The toughest call is whether or not Sacre, Upshaw, or both make this team. In this projection, both make it and that comes at the expense of any additional wing the team could keep. I have my doubts it plays out the way I have it above, but in balancing the needs of the team today versus long term projections, I have a hard time seeing Upshaw getting cut loose. And as much as people rail on Sacre, I don’t see the team cutting a 7-footer who helps defensively, is a good practice player, and a great teammate. He also provides insurance against anything going awry with Upshaw. So, while it seems strange to keep both, hedging a bet on Upshaw with the safer Sacre is a strong possibility from my seat.
*I don’t know if the Lakers would really sign Metta to a deal only to waive him, but that’s how I have it above. Do I think he’s a great practice player and mentor for the young guys? Yes. Do I think the team would rather keep him? Yes. So, I do think it’s entirely possible any of the non-Hibbert centers gets cut to make room for Metta. That’s just not how I have it going. We’ll see.
*I’ve been hard on Jabari Brown this preseason, but cutting him is still a bit hard. He’s a scoring threat who can create his own shot and work off the ball. He’s developing into a somewhat reliable three point shooter. Still, though, he’s overlap with Clarkson, Williams, Kobe, and Young. That’s just too many guys to hurdle for minutes.
*For me, cutting Frazier is much harder than cutting Brown. Frazier has more two way potential, has a better long term outlook as a three point shooter, and is already a better defensive player. Making room for him would be great, but if he clears waivers and is willing, he will go to the D-Fenders where the team can still keep an eye on him.
*Ryan Kelly played his way onto this team. He shot well, played better defense, and just came into camp playing a smarter and more mistake free game. I don’t yet know how he fits into the rotation, but he’s shown enough to be one of the final 15.
Basquiatball says
I was going to tweet my prediction for this today but you basically have the same team. The amount they’ve been playing Kelly and how he’s responded gets him on the roster (though I’m not sure when/how they use him in the regular season). I could see cutting Sacre, but as you’ve said he’s a good 3rd C. They can keep him on doing what he’s done and send Upshaw to the D-League as a longer term project. Jabari and Frazier are more expendable and if they go to the D-Fenders may still be there if the need arises. Sadly, I love Metta, but I’m not sure he fills a need other than as a mentor (he shot 6-21 his last 5 games). I’d hope they could find a role to keep him around in some capacity if he doesn’t look to play elsewhere.
The Holmes thing was really sad, to see him knocked out on a play he was trying was hard (he even made the right pass after injuring himself). I hope the team pays for his recovery and he’s able to find a spot somewhere.
Omar says
Make room for Metta! Can we send Anthony Brown down to D-league? I think Metta & Hibbert will be the guys who on physical nights will be the best mentors for Upshaw & Randle, along with Tarik. I am excited to see Marcelo, poor man’s Steve Ash.
Nik Kannan says
The balance between upside & current value is very tough decision. Considering we are not in the title hunt – persay,we must give credence to potential over current production.
Wow, Clarkson has been playing well.. against very good competition (curry & lillard) albeit preseason – I wasn’t sure how much better he was going to get this season from last, I can definitively say now – he has all star potential – but I think a lot of you already were on that train. It is hard to tell sometimes if a player’s value numbers wise is increased playing on a bad team – I now know sky is the limit with him.
Julius – has a pretty good touch from the free throw line – but still is hesitant to take the 17-20 footer. If he can really start getting consistent from the elbow extend & nail jumpers on the pick & pop – he will be impossible to defend, but the key for him, is getting consistent in mid-range. When the season starts I think teams will play him so he will have the mid-range shot every time down the floor until he proves he can be consistent from that range.
I like what Marcelo is bringing to our club – When the guys are running with him, it seems like they are enjoying the game more – presumably cause they know he will find them to score.
I think he will help DAR too – as he is able to be effective playing basketball using his intelligence & angles, which with D’Angelo’s skill set is what can make him a top 5 pg. DAR certainly looks good in the mid range coming off screens going to his right – I don’t think he has develop the consistency shooting the 3 – I think he will get there.
One thing is for sure tho Marcelo is not a very good defender – I think if we look at the defensive end of the floor – it is certainly not his strong suit.
We know that both Julius & Russel will hit the proverbial rookie wall around game 35 to 40. This is inevitable, so we do need extra depth at both of those positions. Nance may not get enough run to hit the wall & given he his 22 turning 23 I have more confidence he will manage the season better then the two youngest guys in our rotation. Wow has it been nice to have a high energy presence who is athletic & apparently has a shooting touch – with some range. Like most everyone else – I didn’t see this pick – hoping we would draft Looney instead – I was wrong, this looks like a great pick / role player for us for years – though preseason I don’t want to draw too many conclusions – But I have really like what I see.
As far as the Upshaw v. Sacre battle – I’ve really wanted Upshaw to be the guy – like so many of us have, but through summer league & the preseason it has been so hit or miss. I am not expecting him to dominate around the rim yet against Lillard or Curry – but I was hoping to see him play better in one on one defensive roles. I like that he has shown some range & a couple of back to the basket moves – I think we have to keep him to see where he goes from here. For me Upshaw gets the nod ahead of Sacre based on upside & Sacre not being too much more of a provider in our rotation. I think 4 centers is out of question given the climate of the NBA today – we need extra wing defenders, which yields.
Sacre v Artest (MWP) – U Keep Metta – first game he plays in preason he is diving out of bounds – he is a bull in the post to get to the line & some easy buckets, a great mentor, & it still looks like he can play on ball defense.
So my only amendment from Darius final roster cut is Ron Metta World Peace Artest over Sacre – just because the NBA has more 6’8 PF, in which we can get 15-20 mins from Tru Warrior – not to mention he is a fan favorite & really entertaining. We are the Lakers after all.
Sacre v Black – I think black on this one given his activity level & explosiveness – he is a better offensive re-bounder. I just don’t think Sacre has a long term future in the NBA – he has already maxed out his potential – Black gives us more this season & in future season.
1 more week & we Play ball for real!!
Archon says
I tend to agree with your projections. My only hesitation is with MWP. He’s still a train wreck on offense but there is a noticeable increase in defensive intensity from the team when he’s on the court.
I’m just not sure there is enough room at the 3/4 spot for him, especially considering that Nance and Anthony Brown have probably played well enough to get rotational minutes.
Jordan says
Hopefully the final 15 roster spots end up like this:
PG: D’Angelo Russell, Marcelo Huertas
SG: Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams
SF: Kobe Bryant, Nick Young, Anthony Brown, Metta World Peace
PF: Julius Randle, Brandon Bass, Ryan Kelly, Larry Nance Jr.
C: Roy Hibbert, Tarik Black, Robert Upshaw
I think we end up keeping Metta for his D and veteran presence, have him rotated at the 3/4 spot.
Vasheed says
Lakers waived Frazier and Upshaw. Waiving Upshaw I consider an Epic Fail.
Hale says
Though I’d dump Kelly and Sacre for eroded can of lima beans, I’ll have to admit presently Upshaw has the footwork of a newborn deer. He’s 1-2 years away from where Sacre is now. However Sacre has maxed himself out as a 3rd big and Upshaw’s basement is well above Sacre’s ceiling. Upshaw’ll be rejecting Clarkson and Randle shots in a different jersey in a couple of years. I didn’t get to see Frazier much but I did get to see J Brown commit the same offensive foul every time he played.
I don’t have the energy to get into the pyrite that Kelly represents. The end of the roster on a team like this should mainly be about potential and vision.