The Lakers lost again on Sunday, this time to the Knicks, their 5th defeat in six games. The game was close throughout and the Lakers, down the stretch, fell into the trap of looking for specific types of plays — namely Kobe wing isolations – which bogged down their ball movement and, ultimately, did not produce good shots.
It wasn’t even that Kobe got a lot of shots down the stretch, but rather that process of trying to even get him these shots led to the failures. If the Lakers had simply relied on different play types and, in the process, initiated their offense in a different manner they might have gotten the needed baskets (or trips to the foul line) to stop the bleeding.
Instead, they scored exactly one basket between the 7:18 mark and the :05 mark of the 4th quarter. Those two points — on a Roy Hibbert offensive rebound and putback — were only bolstered by four free throws to in the last 7-plus minutes. In case you were wondering, that’s very bad.
I would like to get back to the point above about seeking out different options offensively, however. Because, for the season, the Lakers have been making similar errors in judgement and it has been hampering their offensive output.
What do I mean? I am glad you asked!
The Lakers currently rank 20th in offensive efficiency on the season. For most of the year they have hovered around this mark, typically landing between 16th and where they are now. The make up of the possessions which contribute to that number, though, is what is interesting to me. From NBA.com/Stats and Synergy:
- The Lakers rank 2nd in the league in the number of possessions which end in an isolation (14.7% of their possessions), but rank 27th in points per play at 0.64.
- The Lakers rank 3rd in the league in possessions which end in the pick and roll ball-handler shooting (22%), and rank 2nd in points per play at 0.97.
- The Lakers are 30th in the league in the number of possessions which end in a spot up shot attempt (14.7%), but rank 1st in points per play at 1.16.
- The Lakers rank 13th in the number of possessions which end in a player shooting when coming off a screen (5.3%), but rank 30th in points per play 0.44.
- The Lakers rank 25th in the number of possessions which end in a post-up shot attempt, but rank 7th in points per play at 0.95.
First, the good news. For all the handwringing about wanting the Lakers to run more pick and roll, they are actually doing it a fair amount. Recent work against the Nuggets, Nets, and Knicks (half their six games) has seen them commit to this action more and it is reflected in the numbers. Considering the Lakers have several players — primarily Clarkson, Lou Williams, and D’Angelo Russell — who have a lot of comfort level in this play, it’s good to see they are running it as much as they are.
Second, The Lakers are actually doing some things very well. Their points per play produced are high in several areas. Ranking 2nd in the P&R and 1st in spot ups is fantastic. Ranking 1st in spot up shooting is, frankly, unbelievable even though the team has some very good spot up options. (Jordan Clarkson is killing in this area, by the way). Ranking 7th in points per play on post-ups isn’t so surprising, but it is great to see the guys executing well on a play that isn’t known for its efficiency league wide.
Now, the bad news. The fact that the Lakers are running as many isolations as they are is concerning. The fact that they’re producing so few points per play is, well, beyond troubling. While the team isn’t in the top 10 of number of possessions for shooting coming off screens, the fact that they’re only producing 0.44 points per play is, frankly, awful. I would hope this number would progress to the mean, but if the main guys taking these shots are Kobe and Nick Young coming off pin-downs that get them top of the key three pointers, it may not happen.
Further, some of the play types the Lakers are actually good at are not being utilized enough. Spot up jumpers are typically generated out of drive and kicks or out of ball movement against a rotating defense. The Lakers simply do not do enough of either and, it seems, their offense suffers from it. Regarding post-ups, you do not think of the Lakers as having great post options, but Randle and Kobe are both producing at over 1.0 points per play. Kobe, specifically, could benefit from getting more possessions in the post, especially when the defense switches a smaller player onto him out of PG/SF pick and rolls.
While there is noise in these numbers (it’s only been six games caveat goes here), it is clear to me the Lakers would be better off offensively if they leveraged some of their playmakers to turn isolations for shots into isolations which lead to kick outs. These types of actions would lead to more spot up jumpers either off the initial catch or via ball movement against a rotating defense. The Lakers are currently 27th in assists per game (17.8), so more passing in general is a good thing.
Further, I believe generating more ball movement out of the P&R is also needed. Clarkson, Williams, and even Russell are pretty shot happy out of the P&R’s the team does run and the entire team would benefit if some of those shots turned into passes. Either to the roll man (hello Tarik Black) or to wings spotting up on either side of the floor.
Ultimately, these are things that could grow organically as time goes on. We must remember the Lakers roster has been turned over by half and the head coach is still searching for lineups which work well together. Familiarity will, hopefully, breed better results and smarter shot selection. Hopefully.
(h/t to @slayinmaven for some of the numbers used in this post)
JeffT says
It is clear that we have not been passing well out of the P&R, actually we are not passing at all. I would like to see Kobe initiate more of these, as he has an excellent ability to hit the player rolling to the basket. Russell’s jump shot looks the sweetest when he dribbles around a pick, but I would like to see him pass as well just to keep the defense on their toes and to keep Hibbert engaged.
Andres Garcia says
Nice breakdown man.
Kev The Bold says
Thanks Darius, the stats are interesting giving us both hope and some clarity.
I found myself during the game, especially in the 4th, yelling “Don’t pass it to Kobe!”
When, he inevitably got the ball, ” Don’t shoot it Kobe, pass it!”
Post game however upon consideration, with coach designed plays, combined with the kids respect and awe of Kobe, I don’t see how it could have worked out any other way.
In my humble opinion however, the game was lost, by passing the ball to a reflection of a legend, who is no longer with us.
T. Rogers says
I’d like to see more PNR’s with Randle coming off the pick and Clarkson coming off the pick. Both are great at getting into the paint off the dribble. Let Russell initiate the action by feeding Randle in the high post. Then Russell can move to the corner to spot up. Julius coming off a pick from Black with Black rolling on one side and D’Angelo spotting up on the other side could produce some nice results.
Archon says
I’ve always been a believer in “Kobe misses”, the idea that the attention he draws from the defense along with his mostly mid-post offense leads to a disproportionate amount of offensive rebounds. Even last year when he was inefficient the Lakers got a lot of those misses back. I’ve always considered that when trying to critique or evaluate Kobe, even in his “hero ball” moments.
I’ve never liked Kobe as a 3 point shooter though, even in his prime (although he’s had his share of sublime games from 3). Right now his 3 point shooting is killing the offense because it’s not putting any pressure on the defense, he’s missing a ton of them, it’s not leading to offensive rebounds, and it’s leading to alot of run-outs by the opposition. His offensive game, in short has been a disaster.
Right now we are seeing the worst case scenario when thinking about Kobe’s on court play to end his amazing career. If his shooting doesn’t dramatically improve or he doesn’t take ALOT less shots, Byron Scott along with the front office are gonna be in a very tough spot because they can’t let a player hijack a team like this for a whole season, not even Kobe Byrant.
frank says
Simple, use Kobe off the bench as a role player and fire Byron Scott and his no use of analytics
Joe Houston says
Kobe is not the problem. Byron is not using Kobe properly. Kobe is taking a lot of 3s because that’s the shot this offense presents him. How about working him in the post? As for DAR, there is no need to start him, kid is not ready and as I have said several times, he looks like a taller Kendall Marshall. Play Kobe at the 2 and start Brown. As for Clarkson, he is a poor defender and all this talk about his upside makes me laugh; at his age Kobe was already best player in the world. Randall is the only among the 3 highly regarded youngsters with an all-star future.
Joe Houston says
Lastly after Randall the next best young Laker is Larry Nance.
Kev The Bold says
Gotta disagree Joe, the player who is not being empowered and utilized properly is D’Angelo.
As a result people such as yourself have the wrong opinion about him.
Let’s not forget that our priority is to develop our youth core.
Kobe’s time is over.
KevTheBold says
Could be Joe, however at this early stage, and with our coach, we, nor you know the answer to make such proclamations.
matt says
The problem with Russell is he’s a scoring point guard starting on a team with three other scoring players starting clarkson another guard is a pure scorer, kobe is a pure scorer but at times will move the ball, and randle is only trying to score, the only starter Russell plays well with is hibbert who is not a scorer, to make matters worse the premier bench player williams is also a pure scorer, so is young, none of these players who i mentioned as scorers really moves the ball around, when Russell was in college he adveraged 19 points i think 6 assist, he was a scoring threat, and with all that attention on him that’s how he was able to get assists, this can never happen on this lakers team. Maybe a lineup of russell, kobe or a more mature clarkson , a.brown , nance, and hibbert.
TempleOfJamesWorthy says
One problem I noticed especially the first few games was the young players (esp. Russell) would try to force the ball into Kobe, to the point that defenders would sag off and play the entry angle. This led to many turnovers and otherwise awkward possessions. It’s been a bit better the past few games, but sometimes the offense still stalls as the team looks to isolate Kobe for a shot (particularly late and when the score is close).
The large number of shots by the ball-handler on P&R action is a side effect of defenses sagging and going under the pick. At present, most Lakers lack the deadeye shooting touch (a la Steph Curry), the explosive athleticism (a la Russell Westbrook), or the experience (a la Andre Miller, PhD) to exploit the defensive sagging. If/when they figure out how to take advantage of the soft defense, it will open up more opportunities for spot-up shooters as defensive players are forced to help contain the P&R. But it’s going to take time.
tankyou says
@matt, Righ! Spot on, we have a roster full of wings who are scorers/gunners. Basically volume shooter types.
So we have DAR who thus far really hasn’t looked like much of a passer, but who I thought would be our most willing passer. Clarkson, Swaggy, Kobe, and Lou Williams all guys who are score and shoot first or “I eat first” type guys at least in their mentality. So although some of them can pass fairly well its just not their natural instinct to do so. Of Course we basically have little defense out of our crew of gunners as well. IF DAR is more of a score first type of guy that just makes the mix even more strange and challenging.
Like many here I want to see Randle get a lot of looks, since I see him as our most legit chance at a star player. Sure Clarkson looks like he can be a starter level guy(on offense but his d looks blah despite his athleticism and length), but I’m definitely not sold on him becoming a “star” on a good team.
What’s really messed up is that Hibbert looks like the most willing passer most of the time. The roster set-up is just a mess, and having Coach Scott just skews it for the worst. Putting Kobe on the bench as our 6th man could be a good benefit to the team. Kobe could theoretically score easier and get better shots vs. 2nd units, its easier to keep his minutes in the 20mpg range. Kobe would take far less shots away from the trio of youngins. Kobe and Lou could fight over shots and you could start Brown/Nance. Give the youth movement a real shot to try and grow, regardless of some saying they are not ready–that’s true, but with a crappy team they may as well learn from playing rather then riding the bench watching the team lose horribly anyway.
Vasheed says
I didn’t have the numbers to back it up but, I had noticed how well things seemed to go when they ran PNR. Russell looked much better when they ran it.
This also points to that if the team ran another system they would perform much better. It is still early but, BS needs to address that his system is not working. I think it is even worse on the defensive side of the ball.
Fern says
I find funny people calling DAR a “Kendall Marshall” and even a bust 6 games in. I remember when Steph Curry and Harden were called busts on their rookie years, not saying that he will reach their level, but it shows how much we know, DAR needs the ball on his hands and run the offense not giving it up to Kobe behind the 3 point line like he does almost every single time, excellent article Darius, encouraging and disturbing, such extremes…
Joe Houston says
Guys go and look at DAR in college. Against NBA level talent he struggled. The system isn’t the problem, the player is the issue.
Joe Houston says
Fern, Steph Curry and Harden were way better college players than DAR. No one called Steph or Harden busts. Please share with us the articles where they were called busts.
Vasheed says
Finding Articles for this is a bit hard. Most of them have been buried. Finding old message boards discussing them as busts is not as hard. But yes early on Harden and Curry were often discussed as busts.
http://dailythunder.com/2010/11/diagnosing-what-ails-james-harden/
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/110649-is-stephen-curry-a-future-nba-bust
tankyou says
@Fern, I said that DAR looks more like a better shooting Kendall Marshall as well. But that WAS NOT a rip on him. Kendall Marshall when he was healthy was a really good passer and distributor. The year he played for us he averaged nearly 9 assists a game.
But I agree with JoeHouston, I think they messed up on the pick but only time will tell. I just hope DAR becomes decent, but he better become a big time passer b/c he doesn’t look like nearly the passer K. Marshall was yet. At this point Hibbert looks like the better assist guy.. Lou Williams is our BEST APG guy currently at 2.8, that’s pretty bad.
Craig W. says
If you are going to use analytics to look at the last three games, then go over to SS&R and look at their analysis of Laker possessions the last 7 minutes of the Knick game.
What you will see is that this isn’t primarily a Kobe problem. Yes, he needs to pass the ball quickly – instead of trying to beat his man 1-on-1 – but the Lakers are not running a variety of plays and the players (Randle and Hibbert) they do use on the pick-n-roll don’t have to be guarded out high.
Darius – I do really love your analysis, even if I don’t agree that Kobe is the cause of all our problems.
Darius Soriano says
Craig,
I do not think Kobe is the root of all the problems, but his presence complicates things a fair amount. I don’t want to get into that here in the comments, but I don’t think I am being unfair by stating that.
KevTheBold says
How much have we seen of DAR’s NBA play?
A few Scott orchestrated scenes, which like a puppeteer pulls DAR’s strings high above the fray, as if to hide, or protect him, or to give the documentary cameras that are following Kobe’s farewell tour.
Those brief snatches, are more than enough to give the self proclaimed GMs that were embarrassed when their picks of Okafor, Mudiay, or Portzingas didn’t pan out.
So now, every chance they get, to punish the front office, D’Angelo, the one standing between us all, and continued damnation, gets torn apart.
Though there is adequate information to support the DAR pick for OUR team, The Los Angeles Lakers, from game one of summer league, they were chomping at the bit, to make their displeasure known.
Look, if you don’t believe in the front office, though their draft pick record is stellar, you should at least muster up enough quiet pause, to listen to Kobe.
Kobe, and the team know what goes on in practice, and he is telling Scott to turn the offense over to D’Angelo.
If you know anything about Bryant, you know his tough, uncompromising standards, and love for the purple & gold.
If he trusts D’Angelo, what logical reason do you have, not to do likewise?
Calvin says
Just want to add to TankYou’s comment that comparing DAR to Kendall is not an insult or saying he’s a bust. Kendall Marshall’s passing is elite, and he proved it again and again averaging almost 9 assists per game. It not only showed in stats. You can see it during the game – the way Kendall finds cutters running their routes, backdoor cutters, lobs, kickouts – he put the ball right where the receiver needed it, adding spin and english to his passes to get through tight angles. So DAR should be happy if his passing is as accurate as Kendall’s.
Kimberly says
Darius-
I noticed your Twitter exchange with Eric pincus and went on to read more of his responses about Russell, Byron’s system, and his overall coaching…
He seems very defensive of Byron, providing rather strangely simplistic and at times, off point, responses to reasonably criticism about Byron.
At one point, Pincus called someone’s criticism of Byron being “not intelligent” disrespectful or offensive, and that pincus found him otherwise.
But I consider that “not intelligent” point fair in respect to hearing all of Byron’s comments…let alone his in game decisions.
Now I know there is always a bias, and Byron’s comments, for all we kno, could have been presented out of context… But that seems far fetched…considering how damning his words can be on its face.
I want to ask- do you think it’s possible that Pincus can be right about Byron? He seems to have such full support from the FO as well.
It seems to be either there is a subversive anti-Byron thing going on in the media to present him as simple, or… I heard he is very charming and personable in person… Don’t know what to make of it.