Of the Lakers’ three draft picks from this past June, none was more surprising than Larry Nance Jr. Sure, D’Angelo Russell ahead of Jahlil Okafor turned heads, but Russell was pretty much a consensus top 3 pick. Nance was projected by most mock drafts to last until the late 2nd round, if he was drafted at all. When the Lakers pulled the trigger on him in the first round, a lot of fans were skeptical. Most had never even heard of him.
While Nance Jr. is far from a household name, I’m pretty sure every Lakers’ fan knows who he is now. The recognition started with some highlight plays – a block here, a dunk there – but has now come from being a guy who has found his way into the regular rotation and looking like he won’t give it up anytime soon. I’m not sure anyone saw this coming only eight games into the season. I know I didn’t.
Before the season started, though, Zach Lowe said something in a podcast that hinted Nance might be a player who surprised. He mentioned Nance in passing in a sit-down with ESPN’s Baxter Holmes (around the 24 minute mark):
Enough talent evaluators who i respect have told me “just keep an eye on Larry Nance Jr.” And specifically, “he has a little Draymond Green like switch-ability, versatility, just a little whiff of that.” So let’s see if it pans out.
Nance, of course, has a long way to go until he reaches Draymond levels. And, to be fair, I don’t think Lowe (or the talent evaluators he was citing) were really saying Nance would be a comparable player. But Nance does bring a variety of skills to the floor every time he checks in and it’s that ability to do enough things at a high enough level which likely got his number called in the first place.
And while Nance’s combination of size, athleticism, and defense is what sets him apart from the other backup power forward options (Nance is far superior to Kelly defensively and has superior size and length to Bass), I would argue that it is actually his offense which has kept him on the floor after Byron Scott first turned to him. Take a look at his shot chart:
Obviously the percentage jumps out right away, but let’s ignore that since Nance Jr. surely won’t shoot 70% from the floor this season. Instead, then, let’s just focus on the fact that he has shown the ability to hit shots from the spots on the floor a power forward in today’s NBA will need to if he wants to be a viable offensive player — especially if he’s not a shot creator.
Against the Nets Nance hit two baseline jumpers, both from around 18 feet. This is the spot on the floor where, when your team is running a pick and roll, the weak side big will almost always camp out (if he’s not a three point shooter) to act as a release valve when his man helps in the paint. And then there is the top of the key and elbow area, which are the key spots on the floor where big men float to in pick and pop actions after setting a screen.
Even more important, though, is that corner three pointer he hit against the Magic.
This is a shot Nance has been working on and one, dating back to college, he has in his arsenal. While the college line is shorter, Nance’s increasing comfort level stretching out beyond the mid-range and to the NBA line is something worth watching for. I do not think he’s totally there yet, but he’s flashed enough potential to have me thoroughly intrigued at that shot becoming a more lasting part of his game.
Again, I do not expect Nance to shoot this well all season. His jumper will stop falling at the rate it is and he’ll have more frustrating moments trying to create off the dribble and when facing length and size inside as a finisher. But the good thing about his game is that it is well rounded enough to compensate. He sets good screens, is a smart and good enough passer to recognize when and where to move the ball within the offense, and of course, has fantastic defensive potential.
The most important thing, however, is these skills translate to helping the team. I mean, getting his individual numbers like he did against the Magic are nice, but how the group performs while he’s on the floor is more of a tribute to what kind of impact he, as a glue-guy type, can have. And, while it is very early and a small sample, the numbers are telling a nice story:
Larry Nance Jr. has only played 73 minutes this season. But when he's on the floor, the Lakers have an OEff of 102.3 & a DEff of 94.3.
— Darius Soriano (@forumbluegold) November 12, 2015
That net rating of +8.0 when Nance is on the floor is the highest of any Laker who has played 70+ minutes. Black up next at +4.2.
— Darius Soriano (@forumbluegold) November 12, 2015
Not all of that is attributable to Nance Jr., of course. But he is playing a key part in that success. If you would have told me, in the moments after the 27th pick was announced this past June, that would have been the case I would not have believed you.
Rod says
Darius, I find it interesting that you and so many other basketball observers doubted Larry Nance Jr’s ability to be a somewhat impactful player this soon. It’s almost laughable to me. Do you not know who his father was? Lol. Folks who saw his old man play, remembered that it took a few years into his career when he felt comfortable enough to consistently shoot and knock down the 18 to 20-foot jump shot. Guess what? Like father, like son. Nance Jr also has a very high basketball iq just like his father did. Don’t get it twisted, this young man can flat-out ball. Nance Jr comes from an elite bloodline and will only continue to get better and better.
pacclerouge says
I’m asking you a question I formulated on another site. What if Nance confirms his start and proves to be the athletic versatile (both defensively and offensively) phenomenon we envision right now ?
You don’t want to limit such a player at 18 minutes behind Randle, so what happens ? Could you see him grab extra minutes as an oversized SF or an undersized C ?
Marlon Brando says
For all the negative FO talk thrown around, one thing I believe can be said is they’ve drafted quite well these last two years. Randle has the potential to be a real difference maker, and Clarkson was out right theft. Nance reminds me of Aaron Gordon in some ways, who was a top 10 pick last year, and Russell has shown flashes of the creativity we’ve been begging for from the point guard position for years. With Russell, I believe once his body catches up to his game his effectiveness and confidence will sky rocket. Good nutrition and hit the weights young man.
All in all, I’m more hopeful then I was to start the season, which is something I cherish when positives are hard to come by.
Anonymous says
I would like to see him as an undersized center for a few minutes a game next to Julius. Most teams play small so I think it would be fun!
Renato Afonso says
I had prepared a long post about Byron Scott, tactics and player development but I’ll leave my comments about the PF situation instead.
While I agree that Larry Nance Jr. is a pleasant surprise let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Is shooting form is unorthodox and the release is very slow, sohis FG% is bound to drop once defenses get used to him. He also entered the league as a senior, so there’s less room for improvement than in other draftees, even if I do think that the amount of time that players are drafted due to their “upside potential” is ridiculous. So, while we can all agree that Randle is and should be the starter at PF, the truth is that neither Randle nor Nance are boxing out properly, helping properly in rotations or showing signs of being great one on one defenders. Nance can provide the first help but when he needs to help the first helper (think of Hibbert contesting the layup from an opponent wing and check how many Lakers run to cover Hibbert’s assignment) he’s simply not there.
I reviewed both Florida games and what amazed me the most was that Brandon Bass was the only one actively boxing out his man and trying to rotate properly. So, our problem so far is that with the notable exception of Nick Young, our current roster has too many capable PF’s. Both Nance and Bass provide more to the team than the remaining bench and none of them is suited to play either SF or C. Maybe against extreme small ball opponents they can but it’s not sustainable. So, would you rather give the minutes to Nance or to Bass? I don’t think that Nance will be nothing more than a hustle type PF that comes off the bench to give energy in short stints. I can obviously be wrong and I’m not saying we should trade him or anything. I’m just saying that if there are 48 minutes to allocate at PF, at least 30 of those should be to Randle and 18 to his backup.
So, to me, the best way to develop a youngster is to have a veteran player to fight him for the starting spot. Somebody that knows the nuances of the game and how a professional should act. Someone that will kick his butt during practice fighting for a loose ball. Somebody that will make him look over his shoulder if he’s not producing. I don’t think that Nance will be that guy for Randle and Randle’s improvement is far more important than Nance’s. So, while I’m happy that we drafted well at PF (I remember that I was ecstatic that we landed Randle) for consecutive years, maybe we shouldn’t be overlooking Bass yet.
PS: I really need to dissect Scott’s (lack of) offensive system and Russell’s role in it…
JeffT says
Nance looks like this generation’s Robert Horry. I would not feel bad he takes away most of the minutes that were supposed to go to Bass and/or Kelly.
KevTheBold says
Marlon Brando, I’m with you bro;
People can say what they want about FO decisions in any area but draft
picks.
A stellar record they have in that area: From Jerry West, to Magic and Worthy, to Kobe.
Now Randle and Clarkson are showing the Laker eye is still sharp as an eagle.
I trust that soon, these new 3 will show the same.
I could see Nance’s gifts from his first summer league game. He reminds me of Blake Griffin.
Brown has defensive skills as well plus a 3 point shot.
As for D’Angelo, his potential is boundless and imo, the only player in this year’s draft that’s worthy of taking the Laker baton from Kobe.
Now if they could only turn that bird eye on the coaching pool, in time, we would be championship bound, versus lottery bound.
Though one I wouldn’t mind one more dip in the lottery pool 😉
Mid-Wilshire says
Renato,
I’m looking forward to your comments on Byron Scott’s offensive system (or lack thereof).
Martin Kember says
I would like to experiment with Nance starting at 3. Randall 4, Hibbs 5, and experiment with Clarkson Kobe and Russell in the back court. Clarkson is your scoring guard, Randall is the focus in the post. Defense is guaranteed to improve, which will create offensive opportunities.
Andres Garcia says
I saw a couple of Nance’s games in college. He shot those mid range shots with confidence. Obviously, he’s not going to keep shooting 70% but I think the midrange J (and maybe short corner 3) will be part of his game. I love his length on defense. With some reps, he could turn into a guy that ends possessions via steals, blocks, defensive rebounds. Also, have to remember because of his medical issues (crohn’s as a child/ACL in college), he’s a very late bloomer. Further skill development not out of the question.
George Best says
Love Nance. That was a great pick. Still need a better coach.
R says
I’d like to take a moment to cry over spilt milk: After 8 games Jah is averaging 20.6 pts, and 6.9 boards per game. His FG percentage 50.7 and his FT percentage is 59%.
Based on draft nigh visuals and commentst, he hated the fact he was picked by Philly.
Chris J says
“He also entered the league as a senior, so there’s less room for improvement than in other draftees”
—–
I respectfully disagree on this point. It wasn’t too long ago that four-year college players were the norm coming into the NBA, and the undergraduate draftees were only allowed to declare due to proclaimed economic hardship cases. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Patrick Ewing, Steve Nash, Reggie Miller, Tim Duncan… just a few examples of Hall-of-Fame caliber players who were four-year college stars whose talent levels continued to improve as they developed experience in the NBA.
Nowadays we see guys like Russell drafted 18 months after they attended their senior prom and still some fans expect them to show signs of becoming first-team All-NBA stars right out of the gate. The ones who can do that — KG, Kobe, Moses Malone — those are exceptions. It was 20 years ago that the “hardship” exception was tossed aside and so many high school kids began to declare, and GMs began to take chances hoping to find the next Kobe or Tracy McGrady. (More wound up with the likes of a Darius Miles, or if really unlucky, a Korleone Young.)
I actually believe a guy like Nance may show faster growth at the pro level than a Russel or Randle because Nance is older, more developed and more experienced. Does that mean his upside is higher than his two younger teammates? Not necessarily, but I don’t believe it’s unreasonable that he’ll improve, and do so at a faster pace, than Randle or Russel might. Each has upside, but don’t rule out Nance hitting his peak earlier on — and let’s not assume he’s near his peak just yet.
A Horse With No Name says
Renato: Agree that Randle is the far more important player to the Lakers’ future than Lance. That said, Lance has more potential than I think you are giving him credit for. Great athleticism (although he’s curiously a bit awkward) with length and IQ portend elite defensive potential. His slow shooting motion doesn’t concern me. He can find space with movement (see Blake Griffin).
Martin Kember: Randle and Lance as interchangeable parts paired together has real potential at both ends. Will Byron give this a chance? Not holding my breath . . .
Robert says
Youngsters: I understand why everyone wants to be over-the-top optimists. I used to be that way with the Lakers prior to the last few years. However without regard to whether you are optimistic, we need consistency (again). We have played 8 games in the case of Russell, Nance, and Randle. If 8 games is not enough to judge Russell, then it is not enough to judge Nance and Randle either. What I am reading is that Nance (can we at least agree that it is premature for a Robert Horry comparison?) and Randle (premature for the Charles Barkley comparisons) are already definitely phenomenal picks. Meanwhile even though Russell has not done much but we are going to project a huge upside because that is what we were promised. Isn’t this taking both sides of the same coin? It is too soon to judge both on the upside and the downside. Same is true of the age thing. If you want to say that Russell is just a baby and has not developed molars yet – hence the sky is the limit – OK. However you can’t have it both ways on Nance as he does have his molars. Consistency. Or not. But man without consistency, we might believe that we have Magic Johnson (Russell), Charles Barkley (Randle), Larry Nance (Robert Horry), and shall I say Norm Nixon (Clarkson) on our roster. Go back and look at what those guys accomplished is their first three years in the league (all 4 won titles as key contributors, and received a number of honors), and you will see that our 4 youngsters are going to fall well short of that (and Barkley and Magic both came out early).
Draft Evaluation: Way too early to judge this year’s rooks, but I will certainly give the FO credit for Clarkson. With regard to this year’s rooks, they are a #2, a #7 and a high 2nd rounder. Evaluating the performance so far (very early) hardly makes me feel like we got bargains. It is about where it should be (maybe), and I say that reluctantly until I see something from Russell.
matt says
Before the draft i watched prospect videos eager for who the lakers would pick with their late first rounder, when they picked nance i was like who, i actually had a list of 5 guys i thought they would draft, the only videos on nance were from wyoming students, great pick
Renato Afonso says
Will try to, Mid.
Regarding Nance, I’m not saying he won’t develop fast. Maybe he will. The problem is that I don’t think he’ll ever be a starter in this league and, if that is the case, we should consider having a veteran PF to fight with Randle for minutes (like Bass is) instead of a fellow rookie. It still seems to be a good pick, considering that he is a late 1st round pick.
Clay Bertrand says
The party’s over……..Kobe is playing tonight……..
Fern says
Despite Kobe being a shadow of himself and most likely playing his last season (his 20th btw) with the Lakers, i find the level of contempt and ingratitude here astonishing, I criticize his shot selection and lament the black hole he has become on the offense, but guess what, he is Kobe freaking Bryant, last of his breed, and he deserve more respect than being treated like Kwame Brown, Luke Walton or Smush Parker, and people can bitch and moan all they want but he is going to start every single game and he is going to shot away, i hope this is his last season i truly do, but i want him to go out guns blazing, instead of bitching about him apreciate his last go around, every player, GM, even rival fans and every NBA court are giving him the respect as one of the all time greats which he undoubtedly is, is a shame that he is getting “hatorade from the Lakers fanbase, and about him taking too many shots, Clarkson, Randle and Rusell are getting “theirs” so him hindering the youngsters are utter BS. Apreciate the man while he is still here, he deserves criticism but he deserves respect too. Just saying…
Fern says
About Nance? Impressive so far but now the other teams defenses are going to be wise to him, of course he is not going to hit 70% from the field but he has looked good so far, the real test will be when teams pay attention starting tonight, Rick Carlise is no fool, how he respond to the attention he is going to get it’s the real measuring stick of how good he is/could be, i read people comparing him to Horry but he looks to me like a more athletic Rick Fox, we will see, he could be another building block, the Lakers have done really really good on the Draft despite everything else…
LKK says
Thanks Fern… Well said.
Anonymous says
The Lakers are awful for the 3rd consecutive year. I think the fans are justified with their angst. Yes Clarkson was a find but Randle, Russell and Nance were paid for with 116 losses. Time for the team to show progress.