We told you heading into free agency be ready for some sticker shock. We then told you in their search for a big man, the Lakers were likely going to have to spend a lot of money. And even though we said all that, when news of the Lakers’ inking Timofey Mozgov to a 4 year, $64 million deal hit, it still came as a surprise.
Welcome to the new world of NBA spending.
I don’t think many would have been upset of this contract was handed out to a sexier “name” player — Whiteside, Biyombo — who was thought to have a higher upside and room to still grow in this league. But Mozgov is a veteran big man who turns 30 this month. It’s doubtful he will improve in any tangible way, though the hope would be he continues to sharpen his strengths to become a more effective version of the player he has been.
In any event, Mozgov is the Lakers’ new starting big man. And, while it will be impossible to ignore the price tag, it’s how good of a player he is and how his skill-set can be used by the team which also matters here.
Up front, it’s important to know that Mozgov was not healthy this past season for Cleveland. He had off-season knee surgery after the 2015 campaign and then developed a cyst on the same knee during recovery. From ESPN Cleveland:
“Mozgov had a bad knee and he shouldn’t have started the season when he did,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said during his weekly radio show ‘Hey Windy’ on ESPN 1540 KNR2 in Cleveland. “He should have been more worried about rehabbing his knee.
“The surgery that they performed last summer was not a success but he felt pressure to play really well because he saw a massive paycheck coming his way. It was the combination of worrying about the contract and an unhealthy knee and a changing role on the team that all contributed to him having a down year.”
And more:
“He had a cyst in his knee that they removed,” Windhorst added in detail to the summer surgery. “The removing of the cyst didn’t completely heal the issue and there’s the possibility that he may need another surgery.”
It is unclear if Mozgov actually needs another surgery at this point. He played sparingly in the playoffs this year and looked okay physically, but I’m no doctor. Rest may indeed be the best medicine here.
Many, including me, have pointed to his lack of playing time this past season and judged Mozgov harshly. Maybe too harshly.
If his recovery from knee surgery did not go well and, as Windhorst explained later in the linked to article, instead of resting he tried to push through and play while never being back to his best physically, that would explain some of his drop off. It should also be noted, however, that Tristan Thompson is also a better player than Mozgov and not earning his starting role or a rotation spot back was like a combination of factors which went beyond health.
This makes Mozgov’s final year in Cleveland a bit difficult to judge him fully on. He played 1132 minutes last season, but many of those were spot opportunities or when games were already decided. This doesn’t mean there aren’t takeaways and conclusions, but they must be put into the proper context. There are some positives to note, however.
Per synergy sports and NBA.com’s stats tool, Mozgov is a good finisher in the pick and roll, scoring 1.22 points per play (PPP) and shooting 66% on shots out of the P&R. Nearly 17% of his baskets came from this action, with his conversion rate putting him in the 87th percentile in the league. Mozgov also produced good results as a cutter (1.31 PPP, 69th percentile) and in transition (1.21 PPP, 73rd percentile). Combined, these actions made up about 56% of his total offense, but the hope is that with the Lakers that number will increase while reducing his number of post ups and other lower efficiency actions.
In season’s past and on the Russian National team, Mozgov has shown to be a capable mid-range shooter as well. Though the samples are small, he shot 41% from 15-19 feet in 2013 through 2015. Last season these numbers fell off dramatically, but he has a history of at least showing some comfort in being able to knock down a mid-range jumper.
Defensively, Mozgov’s impact is somewhat of a mixed bag. In the past two seasons opponents have shot 55.1% and 54.4% in the restricted area when Mozgov is on the floor, per NBA Savant. His size and length allow him to contest and bother interior shots and his career 1.8 blocks per 36 minutes suggest he can be a presence.
However, his team’s defense hasn’t always been better with him on the floor vs. when he’s been on the bench. For example, in his last full season in Denver (2013-14), the Nuggets were 3.4 points/100 possessions better with Mozgov in the game. After being traded to Cleveland the following season, the Cavs were 4.3 points/100 possessions better with him in the game. But in the half season in Denver before the Cavs trade, in limited minutes in Denver in 2012-13, and last season in Cleveland, the defense improved when he was on the bench.
All of the numbers above, on both ends of the floor, give us some background into who Mozgov is a player. But, again, what’s most important is how he projects to help the Lakers. And, ultimately, I see his addition as a delicate balance between need vs. fit.
On the need side, the things he does well are severely lacking on this Lakers team. The size, P&R finishing ability, and defensive potential in the paint are all missing from the Lakers. The Lakers need a big man who can reliably contest opponents’ shots inside and convert his own paint touches on the other end. Roy Hibbert was not that guy. No one on the team really was.
Further, the Lakers sorely needed a viable pick and roll partner for their young guards. And I don’t just mean someone who can finish inside off a hard roll, but someone who can set good, wide screens to free up the ball handler in a significant way. Last year the Lakers didn’t have a single player who did both of these things at a plus level (Roy set good screens, but could not finish; Black could finish, but did not set the best screens).
I can see lineups which feature Mozgov and any combination of Russell, Clarkson, and Ingram working well as he ably provides ball and off-ball screens to free these players up to get into positions where they can be successful. I can even see him pairing well with Randle or Nance, especially in high low or “elbow get” sets where he’s either ducking in or setting a screen for them at the foul line to try and free them up or to force a switch. It will be on the coaches to figure out more ways to integrate him into the lineup and maximize his strengths in combination with who he is paired with.
This is easier said than done, however. As I noted after the signing was reported, Mozgov has not shown he’s a great passer, isn’t so nimble that he changes ends as well as is needed in today’s NBA, and his lack of quickness will need to be schemed around defensively vs. opponents’ P&R’s or when they go small. His post game isn’t so advanced he can be a go-to scorer and his mid-range jumper isn’t a proven, high-volume weapon. How this type of profile fits into what Luke Walton wants to do on both sides of the floor isn’t yet clear to me. Bits and pieces make sense, but the entire body of work in the big picture creates a muddled, at best, fit.
In the end, I do see the logic in this deal. Mozgov is a veteran who plays hard, brings toughness, and will not complain about his role. His presence helps stabilize the team’s biggest position of need and does so with a low usage player who has specific key skills which should help some of the young players continue their development. While the price is high and, more importantly, for too many years, an overpay was likely always necessary for the team to land that first free agent.
It’s the optics of the contract combined with his fit which has befuddled fans, but it’s the filling of a need and the potential for solidifying a key rotation hole which I am sure the Lakers’ brass will point to as the key reasons he was brought on board. Personally, the potential drawbacks of this deal concern me more than the potential upsides excite me. Maybe I and the majority of the internet echo-chamber who see it similarly will be wrong. Time will tell.
Kennychenny says
Great article. What about mozgov helping zubac develop? No one talks about that .
Shaunis007 says
the turner contract ia dumber than mozgovs by a mile, even parsons contract is dumb given his injury history
Lou2 says
Its hard not feel disappointed by this signing. The iffy knee, while helping to explain the low playing time and output last yr, is far from reassuring. The only good sign I can see is that the Lakers had a plan that they accomplished it quickly.
Let’s see what happens next.
Drew Gordon says
I give the FO full credit for their drafting expertise. But other than that, they have not shown a sense of long-term planning—trying to max Carmelo ring a bell? It’s these questionable (being kind) free agent strategies that make me think a change needs to take place in the front office. Look, if there is a team option, this will be much more palatable—I have yet to see confirmation. If not, this is fireable. Mozgov is not good. We just paid him gobs of money. He will almost certainly provide only a fraction of the value of this contract. And, he offers us nothing from a long-term perspective.
It would have been preferable to punt the money forward, as, assuming our youth takes a leap at some point, that cap space would be very valuable. Eventually, someone would have taken it. Instead, we just blew it on a non-entity who will not be a part of our long-term core. Again, this changes somewhat if there is a team option.
It’s the lack of consistent long-term vision that concerns me with the FO. They kind of magooed their way into a strong long-term position and instead of going all in on that lucky hand, we just pushed a significant amount of chips into the middle of the table prematurely on a losing one.
_ Robert _ says
“Defensively, Mozgov’s impact is somewhat of a mixed bag.” Yes – and this is supposed to be our top priority.
“an overpay was likely always necessary for the team to land that first free agent.” However when the acquisition is almost universally mocked everywhere, does it even count as your first FA? There are quotes on ESPN like “What were they thinking?” This is not helping our reputation in the near term, without regard to how Mosgov may turn out longer term (for which I have great concern).
And I know many are going to mock the Noah deal (if it happens) and the Howard deal (wherever he goes). None of that matters. We are not trying to one up Phil and/or Dwight. We are trying to get back into contention.
barry_g says
no real problem w/ mozgov from an on-court perspective; just question if the $$ and yrs were truly necessary to land him. maybe they were, but having a hard time believing that that was the case.
Drew Gordon says
A couple other notes. Mozgov does not have good hands, which will affect his ability in the P&R. Also, his Synergy stats are almost certainly inflated due to small sample size and due to the fact that he was playing against favorable second unit match ups. He is certainly more mobile than Hibbert, but he’s still a fairly old, plodding big coming off of a botched knee surgery. I just don’t see how this fits with our team, especially for 16 mil over 4 freaking years. His VORP of 0.8 in 2015 (0.3 in 2016) is the highest of his career. If we are lucky, we are paying 16 per year for that. That is extremely poor value.
Drew Gordon says
_ Robert _ Yeah, I didn’t even get into the optics of this. As you mentioned, we are now the laughingstock of the league. I would have maxed Biyombo before making this deal.
_ Robert _ says
To further support your point. When ranking 2016 centers with regard to real plus/minus, Mosgov ranked 75th out of 76. Hard to do when you play for the Cavs. The guys in 74th and 76th played for the Lakers and Sixers respectively.
Drew Gordon says
_ Robert _ Yeah, scroll down and click the WAPO article I linked earlier in this thread. It touches on that with some other advanced stats. I dare you not to vomit. Seriously, why wouldn’t we have maxed Biyombo or even made a big offer to RFA Meyers Leonard over this? I need Lagavulin.
Shaunis007 says
how would everyone feel if we went after tyreke evans? … turner is off the board and pels signed solomon hill … cam guard 2/3 … shooting not great but rebounds and passes better than turner ….. id be ok with him
HaroldSeokohYun says
I am still bitter about the Chris Paul trade; ever since then, none of our gambles worked – Nash, Howard, Hibbert, D’Antoni, Brown… and what we had we lost – healthy Kobe, Gasol, Odom… The new CBA and the new environment has really changed the game and we basically have gone the way of the dinosaurs.
I am guilty of looking for that magic bullet that will fix all problems at once, but we’re basically doing what middling-bottom teams do – overspend on low return or high risk or both without a real system that fosters internal growth and development. I really hope Walton focuses on the growth of our rookies because that’s the only way I can see us ever re-attracting big time FAs and competing.
smokedaddy says
To me, the difference between this being an OK upgrade vs being an unmitigated disaster is Mozgov’s medicals. Which makes me wonder how much access to the medicals our team doctors had or will have in the interim before inking this deal. Are there provisions for backing out if the knee doesn’t check out? Also, his injury could be a positive if in fact he’s recovered by start of season. Likely his down year was in large part due to the injury. So, a healthy Mozgov actually brings a fair amount to the table, ie decent athleticism, big strong body, plays hard and is team oriented, finishes, hits FTs, protects rim, hits boards, knows how to play. Now, no, we’re not getting a Kareem or a Shaq or a Horford or even a Steven Adams here. Again, if healthy, we’re getting an average NBA center who does the things an average center should do, with exception of P&R defense. Would I prefer Whiteside or Horford at the max? Yes. Would I prefer Biyombo at the max? Only if Mozgov’s not healthy. Otherwise, Mozgov does a few things Biyombo or Mayinmi do not
KevTheBold says
This looks to me like desperation to make a move, any move.
I would not be surprised if Jim is feeling the pressure from the fans, the networks and his family, and is forcing Kupchak and Walton into making fast and bad moves on the board.
I could be wrong but I don’t see him as our answer to what ails us.
I would rather pull up a player from any D league team, than see Mozgov gobble up 16 million a year while struggling to push back the hands of time, like Hibbert, and fail like Hibbert.
At least Hibbert’s contract was not an anchor around our necks for 4 years.
I just hope that coming from a championship team, he has value to some other team and we can trade him.
Mid Wilshire says
Kennychenny
Kenny,
See my note in the tread before the last one. I talked extensively about this deal being all about the development of Zubac.
I really think that that could be the hidden gem buried in the soil of this transaction. If Zubac develops and Mozgov tutors him and holds down the fort for 2 years, then the Lakers will look like geniuses. If that doesn’t happen, then the FO detractors can continue to pile on.
But things like this take time to unwind. Zubac could be the key to this whole thing. We won’t be able to evaluate the true merits of this deal, possibly, for another 2 years. If Zubac develops into a solid NBA big, then all will be good.
Let’s compare notes in 2 years. It will take that long to determine whether this has been a good move or not.
CHearn says
Two Steps Forward, and Three Steps Back!!! Additionally, he looks to be the new Steve Nash, but I hope I’m wrong.
JeffFulton says
This is what happens when the first 14 free agent centers decide to not return your call. This IS the Lakers now. The 29th best team in the NBA. They got a relatively old, maybe broken, but some what upgrade over their last two starting centers. Win 17 games, have no player on the roster who is a guaranteed (yet) 20-10 performer and this is what you get. No one needs a new training facility to entice them to come. Everyone has a second home out here anyway. The process is slow. It was from 91-96 also. Even with Buss and West, the Lakers didn’t have a 20-10 player that entire time. They had good players (Jones, Ceballos, Divac, Nick the Quick, the Thief), and finally started to win a little and that’s when Shaq decided he would come. (Divac left to get Kobe in trade that shook the world) =)
Patience. No one really thinks Mosgov is the answer, be might just be the start of even more $$ spent on mediocre free agents (Why can’t we get Bass back?). It’s ugly, but hey, it’s still fun., right? Right? =)
CHearn says
Mid Wilshire Kennychenny
Zubac may very well be the answer to this puzzling transaction. However, why chose a second-rate banana to instruct a player that the organization deems worthy of a future on the team? I’d rather have Kareem return as a trainer for the youngster. Given his obsession with the Lakers and their history, I’m certain Zubac would absorb every word out of The Captain’s mouth, and far more reliable and deserving of his knowledge and experience than Andrew Bynum.
John Citizen says
I hated this deal like everyone else. Once i slept on it i found out that Mozgov was the only C that is really available for the Lakers who has some skills. The price will eventually look cheaper, in a week or so, than those who are picked above and below him.
I was about to make a table of all Cs available this round to prove my point, but i couldn’t be bothered. I believe people here will see the logic of this move eventually.
Drew Gordon says
People need to understand that the vulnerabilities in the current CBA are in regards to top end talent and cost controlled rookie contracts. That is where you glean far more value than the cost. Paying market rates for middling talent is the worst thing you can do. Being the Lakers, someone would eventually take our money, assuming the kiddos develop as we hope. You punt until that happens. Along the way, you use the cap space to acquire assets (ala the Lin deal) and you don’t sign long-term deals unless it’s for a player that has the potential to be a core piece moving forward. We just Mozgoved ourselves on this one.
Mid Wilshire says
CHearn Mid Wilshire Kennychenny
CHearn,
Good point. But who knows? Kareem may end up tutoring Zubac after all. Could happen. And meanwhile, Zubac gets to bang against Mozgov every day in practice, learning what it takes to go against an NBA starting center.
It’s a process, as they say. We’ll know more in a couple of years. But really, there’s no other way. It just takes time.
Mozgov, in his own way, plays a role in all of this.
KevTheBold says
As for Mozgov tutoring Zubac as a reason for this deal, the price tag of 64 million puts that idea to rest.
Walton, and the whole coaching staff wouldn’t put a dent in that salary.
No, they believe they had to snag a free agent, like the rich but homely girl for the school prom.
matt24 says
Remember the link posted back in February, sbnation.com ranked the top 100 nba free agents, mosgov was ranked #22 overall, and they even predicted that he would make over 14 million per year.
The knee issue is a red flag though
new rr says
Howard has reportedly signed with Atlanta for 3/70.5.
new rr says
Mid Wilshire CHearn Kennychenny
Mid,
Those arguments are long reaches.
1. Even if Zubac develops and gives Mozgov credit for it, there is no way to know for sure that Zubac would not have been OK on his own.
2. Even in this market, a guy getting 4/64 needs to have on-floor value on his own merits–not primarily as a mentor/platoon mate/role model.
3. Mozgov will be 30 in two weeks, and Kupchak stated multiple times that he wanted more veterans. Mozgov needs to help the Lakers on the floor from Game 1, quarter 1.
HaroldSeokohYun says
Well, after seeing Conley’s 153 for 5 years (30.6/year), Mozgov signing seems “reasonable” under the new normal.
MikeLowrey504 says
Yea when pau was open to a return. When you could’ve reached out to a Al Jefferson Dwight just to see where his head is wise so many answers. Patience is not the answer now. If you would’ve traded picks to get sure talent(jimmy butler) you wouldn’t have a problem signing any free agents. My thing is we all know this roster won’t get past the 1st rd. So get ready for lottery next year. Mortgaging your future is what brought championships. I hate Jim buss his ability to make moves is horrible.
MikeLowrey504 says
Jim was bitter Phil was smashing his sister smh lol but we could’ve made it with the trio if Phil was there to manage the egos.
KevTheBold says
new rr
There he goes to another city, beat up bags in hand.
Good to know that the problem was Howard, and not Kobe.
Joe Kerr says
It’s difficult for me to have faith in the Mozgov deal because we know what the F.O has done in the past. These are the same guys who thought it was a good idea to give Nick Young a 4 yrs/21.3 million dollar deal. Same guys who gave Lou Williams 3 years/ 21 million. In light of all this, how can anyone have confidence they know what they are doing?
4 years/64 mil is far too much for a mediocre center with knee issues. This really makes no sense even with the increase in cap space. These are the type of moves that make you wonder if they learned anything from their mistakes. Or maybe they don’t even realize they were mistakes..?
Shaunis007 says
mozgov is a lot better tham both of them or else they would have been signed by now
rumdood says
Drew Gordon _ Robert _
iam_MR713 says
I understand Center was a need but of all the options, why call Mozgov first & then sign him to a $65M deal paying him $16M per year? AND WHY FOUR YEARS? What did he do this past season to make the front office even come up with those #s? If you were going to give that contract out, why not give it to a 23 year old athletic Biyombo or give it to a athletic 26 year old Festus who your Head Coach just coached for the past 2 seasons. You thought it was smart to give a 30 year old Center, coming off a season where he couldn’t even get 5 mins off the bench $16M a year? Lolololol Front Office is losing it’s mind. Moz going from $4.9M to $16M off of doing NOTHING the past season.
Clay Bertrand says
KevTheBold His Home Town too.
Clay Bertrand says
new rr Mid Wilshire CHearn Kennychenny
Hey Guys, any additional reporting to point to addressing the possible 4th year Team Option in this deal??? No one is saying much on this.
Also, any Zubac development that results from the presence of Mozgov would be development that would have come from ANY NBA experience IMO. Not like Mozgov is gonna show him the tricks that made himself such a successful player.
You don’t generally sign $16 Mil a year 3rd tier centers to mentor Second Round draft picks. If some good comes of it though, we could surely need it.
Clay Bertrand says
Shaunis007
I think so too……I just got in from work and WOW!
Drew Gordon says
Welp, 538 quantifies the point I was trying to make previously in this thread. The link to the article is below. You might grab a drink or two or eight first. The real value of Mozgov’s contract is projected to be 6 million total. We paid him 64. So much for using analytics in the FO.
Ok, that was actually far worse than even I expected, and I was pretty cynical. I’m going to cry now.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/russell-westbrook-is-really-worth-344-million-and-other-tales-of-the-nbas-new-salary-cap/
Msway says
Welcome to LA Young Mr Mozgov It looks like this might be the most silent news conference to introduce a player in the history of the lakers or the equivilant of magic johnson becoming ill and retiring, I cried that day. But I got something to say-EVERY current laker player should be at that press conference,out in front to stand up for thei,r new brother and team mate, and I personally am going to be the first lifetime laker fan to buy his jersey, cheer for him and root for our team to grow together and kick all asses that laughed at usYa See its not that critisism isn’t good,Its that he’s coming here,He’s one of us now,I want him to like it here,Our town,Our Fans,Our City,His Team,Our Team.This is one fan that is really pulling for Timofy Mozgov to exceed all our expectations
Mid Wilshire says
Here are some highlights of Mozgov’s performances against Orlando, Detroit, and Minnesota from this last season:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG99u-Wwlvs
Mid Wilshire says
Below is a link to a good discussion on Timofey Mozgov with Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times. Very level-headed. No hysteria. Well-balanced. A discussion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcSLqvPPGys
Lakers118 says
Prior to the offseason the media hyped up Lakers interest in free agents that they literally had no chance at getting. People lack to understand that this isnt the nba of a few years ago where one team dominates financially. The cba allows everyone to be on a leveled playing field financially. Todays nba offers players (high tier players) the ability to compete AND get paid. Lakers have money but lack the ability to show they can be competitive. Everyone wants to be like oh lakers had 2 max slots but the current free agents and most people know that 2 free agents wont cut it. Oh lakers couldve gutted their young core for perhaps an extra star to go with the possible free agents, but we all know that is not how a competitive team works they wouldnt be able to afford any decent role players…im leading to the conclusion of an unbalanced roster that wont get them far. Yes they would be more competitive but by a slim margin also most players want to go to competitive and established teams like spurs, gsw, okc, celtics, etc. Teams that have shown they can compete with their current roster but looking for that extra gear in a top free agent. Lakers were once realistic in their target and everyone gives them crap for not going after guys they had no chance with. As for the money yes i do agree it is pricey but understand how the market works. If lakers give him basic market level pay to free agents why would anyone sign when they could get the same to be on a more competitive team? Sometimes over paying is the only option. Also this year EVERYONE is getting “overpaid”
HumanLakers says
I dont know why everybody is getting crazy about Mozgov. He is not a world-beater, but lets not forget what the Lakers need. A CENTER, who can play a bit(Sorry Roy Hibbert). People are suggesting to bring in Festus or even Mahimi. Did anyone watch the Finals this year? Festus did nothing. And i think Walton knows best about the real upside and potential. Btw. Shaw worked with Mozgov in Denver and watched his development first hand. So they have intel about the guys we dont have and they decided that Mozgov is a better fit.
Someone has to get paid this year, and why not get creative e.g. make the contract front loaded or team/player for the last year etc. And btw. who else is gonna play center for the Lakers and for how much?
So lets all relax and have a bit of trust.
barath_s says
Next year, the Lakers pick is only top 3 protected, which means that almost certainly the Lakers are going to be sitting out the draft 1st rd, not getting ready for the lottery
JerryArthurNewcomb says
Joe Kerr Lou Williams was a very good signing. 😉
Insteade of crying about Mozgov… wait and see and get behind our team…
WOW, what a novel idea
JerryArthurNewcomb says
Drew Gordon We got Larry Namce Jr, because of the Lin deal so the FO is doing pretty good. I am excited about what we have. Can’t wait to see how things play out…
GO LAKERS!!!
JerryArthurNewcomb says
All these CRY-BABIES will be suprized this year….
GO LAKERS!!!