D’Angelo Russell practiced in full on Saturday and the team is hopeful he will return to game action on Tuesday when the Lakers return to the court for the first time in 5 days. Russell’s been dealing with a mild MCL sprain and a strained calf, but considering the original prognosis was 1-2 weeks he is right on schedule.
Russell’s return is much needed. We have discussed it plenty this year, but the Lakers need Russell. Even more specifically, the Lakers’ starting 5 needs him. When Russell plays, the starting group of him, Nick Young, Luol Deng, Julius Randle, and Timofey Mozgov post an offensive rating of 110.9 and a defensive rating of 103.3. When Russell is replaced with Jose Calderon, the team’s offensive rating falls to 88.9 and the defensive rating jumps to 117.0. Replace Russell with Brandon Ingram and those numbers are 71.3 and 108.2 respectively.
The sample sizes of the Calderon/Ingram lineups are much smaller, but the eye test reflects what those numbers spell out. Neither of Russell’s replacements do as good a job of him at…well, everything on offense. And while Calderon works hard on defense, he’s bad. Ingram is, of course, a better defender but asking him to chase PG’s has not worked out well at all. So, yeah, Russell is important. He makes the starting group go.
If you’re looking for a reason why Russell has played 403 of his 894 total minutes this season with the starters, those numbers above would probably be the #1 reason.
And, if you’re looking for reasons why the starting lineup might remain the same, those numbers would also be the driver. Especially when you consider Larry Nance is again healthy and it would allow Luke Walton to go back to the all-bench unit of Lou Williams, Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram, Nance, and Tarik Black. Though their overall effectiveness has dipped from their blistering start to the season, they still boast a very good +7.8 net rating on the season. Getting that unit more burn would make sense.
Or at least you think it would. But it’s funny how a season evolves (or, you know, not so funny when it’s evolved like the Lakers’ has). The team’s 10-10 start seems like an eternity ago and there has since been the type of tumble, record wise, which should shape priorities for the 2nd half of the season (and beyond).
We have already started to see some of this unfold, of course. Ivica Zubac has wedged his way into the center rotation, flashing all the tools which had him ranked by some as a top 20 prospect in his draft. Zubac has already had more games with double digit rebounds this season in 15 games (three) than Mozgov has had in 49 games (two). When you add his ability to set massive screens and then make the various different plays as a roll man in the P&R, you can understand why his teammates might be high on him.
https://twitter.com/Dloading/status/825818160121065473
Russell showing the love here dovetails nicely into the next point: I want to see more of Russell and Zubac. Just as I want to see more Russell with Ingram. Just as I want to see more Russell with Nance and more Russell with Clarkson. As noted above, Russell has spent nearly half his minutes this season playing next to the starting lineup. This means he’s only played with Ingram for 269 minutes. For Clarkson and Nance, those numbers are 218 and 74 minutes respectively. Those numbers are affected by injury (at least Nance’s are), but at some point the Lakers need to find out whether some of their young players can develop the chemistry the starting and all-bench units have been able to through game reps.
The argument against this is pretty clear: when Luke Walton has played lineups which are a mix of starters and reserves the results have been mostly poor. Yes, there are lineups where replacing one starter with a sub (or vice versa) works well, but over the course of the season this team simply hasn’t found a way to mix these lineups effectively for long stretches. After all, if the starting group has a net rating of +7.6 on the year and the key all-bench unit is +7.8, the math tells us is all the other lineups the team throws out which are (mostly) struggling to play well.
For the long term success of the team, that needs to change. The players must find ways to work better together and the only way to do that is to up the sample size and give them an opportunity to succeed (or fail) with a longer leash. This is especially true for the young players. And, with Russell returning soon and Nance already back, there is no better time to start than now.
Vasheed says
When the Lakers went 10-10, I thought it remarkable the synergies Walton found in his rotations. I found it hard to believe and injury here and there could throw things so far off course but, that seems to be what this article articulates.
_Craig W says
Vasheed Since Luke started the year with these units, the conclusion would be that he observed how players worked together during preseason and used that knowledge to start the season. That those units work so well and others work so poorly would indicate that Luke also observed that fact in preseason.
We have quite a number of young players and Luke seemed to be able to fit them together quite well. Of course, injury and player development changes all that quickly on a young team. That is what we are seeing now.
It is the player development angle that Darius is talking about. Zubac is the player who has shown the most development over the season. Ingram has shown he is able to play in the NBA, but his performance is developing within the team context and hasn’t shown his individual scoring skills as well as Zubac. Since Black is also a young player, this makes the Mozgov/Zubac/Black conundrum more difficult to manage.
That is what I take away from the article. Mozgov would appear to be playing himself into a bench role – with Zubac on the team – and that may mean he gets fewer and fewer minutes after the trade deadline.
_Craig W says
Vasheed Since Luke started the year with these units, the conclusion would be that he observed how players worked together during preseason and used that knowledge to start the season. That those units work so well and others work so poorly would indicate that Luke also observed that fact in preseason.
We have quite a number of young players and Luke seemed to be able to fit them together quite well. Of course, injury and player development changes all that quickly on a young team. That is what we are seeing now.
It is the player development angle that Darius is talking about. Zubac is the player who has shown the most development over the season. Ingram has shown he is able to play in the NBA, but his performance is developing within the team context and hasn’t shown his individual scoring skills as well as Zubac. Since Black is also a young player, this makes the Mozgov/Zubac/Black conundrum more difficult to manage.
That is what I take away from the article. Mozgov would appear to be playing himself into a bench role – with Zubac on the team – and that may mean he gets fewer and fewer minutes after the trade deadline.
_ Robert _ says
Larger sample size and longer leash will only be acheived if Lou (and lesser extent) Nick do not dominate the ball. Rotations do not fully fix that unless their minutes and shots are reduced.
Right now – Lou eats first
BigCitySid10552 says
While disappointed that our guys aren’t playing better (didn’t think they would even have a shot of keeping their “top 3 protected pick”), at least this year the organization is playing with an eye to the future instead of the past like last year. At this point I’ll admit I want to keep the pick.
new rr says
Miami has won seven in a row, and Dallas, which has been playing better, is up 15 on Cleveland with three minutes to play. Dallas beat SA in their last game.
So, the Lakers have the second-most losses in the NBA. They are 16-34. Phoenix is 15-32. Assuming that Dallas holds on and wins, the Lakers will be three full games behind them–and Dallas has the fourth-worst record.
IOW, the Lakers are at the moment somewhat “comfortably” on track for one of the three worst records in the NBA. Here is Jim Buss, just before Christmas:
“It’s hard to comment on something that hasn’t even happened yet,” he said. “We’re assuming that the Lakers will not be in a position for me to stay confident about me staying in that position. You’re trying to predict where we’re going to be. If we end up being the worst bottom three teams, I can say you’re right. But I don’t think we are.”
Still R says
new rr What was the question that prompted Jimmy’s garbled response?
new rr says
Still R new rr
The above is one of the money quotes from the Bill Oram article in the OC Register, the one in which Jim said that the Lakers would be making a “big mistake” if they replace him:
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/buss-739453-lakers-jeanie.html
The article is very pro-Jeanie.
_ Robert _ says
rr: Does this mean we have not
“turned a corner”
new rr says
_ Robert _
Well, in all seriousness, I think I am where most fans are. I said several weeks ago that the Lakers were at the tipping point where they needed to simply focus on playing the young guys, and they are well past that point now. I am cool with the team having a little bounce and decreasing the odds of getting the pick, if that bounce is based on Randle, Ingram, Russell and Zubac achieving some observable performance spikes and working together on-floor. But I am not down with a little surge based on Lou Williams and Nick Young having some big games, or on the occasional nice game from Deng and/or Mozgov.
That is not a knock on Williams; I have actually been impressed by his ability to keep getting his numbers no matter what the circumstances, and Williams, Young and Walton all deserve some credit for their very good offensive performances.
But the organizational utility of those performances at this point is in the past IMO. The team is 29th in D with a 112.6/100 and has fallen to 23rd in O. I don’t see the point in posting numbers like that by playing veterans extensively. So, I hope the FO can find a playoff team that will give up a draft pick for LW, and soon.
_ Robert _ says
new rr We are of same mindset on Lou. I never wanted him, said so the day he was signed, and spent all last summer saying he and NY should be jettisoned. So here we are. And if history repeats – we will finish the year with them, and I will have to listen to the statements from some about how there was no deal to be had. And there wont be a deal if we hold out for a high pick and it will do us no good if we wait until someone needs him just for a playoff push. We should get whatever we can get for him now as you state. If that is a 2nd rounder – so be it.
Kareemez says
new rr Still R Any conversation about Jim Buss is necessarily “pro-Jeanie” at this point.
Travis Y says
The reality is even if we end up with the second worst record, our fate will be determined by the 55.8% chance that we keep our pick.
If we do keep the pick, then we have to give our 2018 1st round pick to PHI as well as two 2nd round picks to Orlando in 2018 and 2019.
https://theringer.com/the-lakers-should-follow-the-sixers-rebuilding-blueprint-87309ea65a06
The sad part is, the team was constructed to improve from last year and not to bottom out.
For this reason alone, it shows the ineptitude of our front office.
All this being said, I still believe in Kupchak and agree with others that we go for a Troy Weaver and retain Kupchak.
Clay Bertrand says
new rr _ Robert _
Very well put. I agree bro. ESPECIALLY with these two statements:
“I am cool with the team having a little bounce and decreasing the odds of getting the pick, if that bounce is based on Randle, Ingram, Russell and Zubac achieving some observable performance spikes and working together on-floor. But I am not down with a little surge based on Lou Williams and Nick Young having some big games, or on the occasional nice game from Deng and/or Mozgov. ”
and
“…I have actually been impressed by his ability to keep getting his numbers no matter what the circumstances, and Williams, Young and Walton all deserve some credit for their very good offensive performances.”
HELL YES and YES respectively……..
Clay Bertrand says
OT but these games against Denver have the under the radar sort of rivalry with Russell and Mudiay usually playing a little game within the game against each other. Last game, was Mudiay getting Russell benched as I recall and shooting the lights out. Denver was shooting outta their minds that game at least in the first half.
Tough to have a return from injury and have a huge performance but lets see if Russell musters some extra heart and drive tonight vs. Mudiay. Even before his injury his confidence seemed to be waning and his non chalant efforts were somewhat worrisome IMO.
Might be a good night to start Deng (YEP, our Superstar FA signing!!!) at the 4 with Randle out instead of Black and start Ingram at the 3. He can shut down Gallinari and keep him from getting going outside. Of course, starting Black opens up some real nice back up minutes for Zubac so maybe that’s the direction Luke will go in order to get Black and Zubac both decent minutes in Randle’s absence.
ALSO, Zubac vs. Jokic WOULD HAVE been a goodie to watch with Zubac likely getting increased minutes. But Jokic is OUT tonight so the SERB ON SERB match up will have to wait til the March 13 game.
DieTryin says
Good post Clay. Agree on starting Deng at the 4 & BI at the 3. But even if Jokic was available the matchup against Zu would not be Serb vs Serb but Serbian vs Croatian. The stuff of real honest to goodness wars.
Clay Bertrand says
DieTryin
I misspoke re Zubac and you are partially accurate. He is BOSNIAN by birth not Serbian. He IS however a naturalized Croatian. My understanding is that Bosnia is not as advanced as Croatia, Serbia and some other former Yugo “States” when it comes to professional basketball. You don’t come across too many Bosnian players. I think B&H; is also a poorer country in the region.
As well, I believe that the Croatian league (the A-1 league) is considered the strongest in the region. This is where Zubac played for part of the last season but due to league gripes about his transfer and then some apparent payment issues, his agent got him into the Adriatic League on a team the agent sort of controls or has ownership interests in. IOW if you are going to be a professional basketball player of any quality in the area, you go to Croatia if possible.
All I can say is if Yugoslavia was all one country again, they’d be among the best basketball nations around hands down.