Welcome to FB&G’s first attempt at a mailbag. Thanks to all of you that submitted questions. If you’d like to submit a question for future installments just send me an email and put “mailbag question” in the subject line. Here we go…
Do you see a possibility of Phil sliding into a Tex Winter type role after next year? Come in during training camp and a couple times during the season to help out and tweak things. Or is the personality going to be so strong and Shaw still trying to establish himself that it would be a bad idea? Or at least not the first year of Shaw being the head man. But the second year. Phil had no problem acknowledging that Tex mentored him right from the get go. It’d be an interesting proposition.
While I think Phil will have some sort of role with the Lakers after he’s finished coaching, I don’t think he’ll be a “Tex Winter” type of advisor to Brian Shaw. Remember, Tex was very visible in practices and behind the bench and his voice was heard consistently while his health permitted him to be part of the team. I hope that Phil would make himself available as a resource to Shaw (assuming Brian is the man chosen to replace Phil), but I think those communications would happen behind the scenes, not in practices or in training camp. In the end, I think Phil taking too active a role after his retirement from coaching would be a bit of a conflict for the players and could potentially undermine Shaw’s role as the head man. Remember too that by the end of next season, Shaw will have just completed his 6th season as an assistant to Jackson. He’ll likely have learned as much as possible from Phil in terms of schemes and tactics and it will then be up to Shaw to take what he’s learned and incorporate that into his own coaching style. From everything I’ve read, Shaw has the respect and ear of the players so his message should be well received. It’s just a matter of his message and guidance then producing results. And while I have confidence in Shaw as a head man, we’ll see how he does when that day comes.
If Ron Artest plays at more or less the same level as he did in Game 7, is any team going to be able to beat the Lakers if they stay healthy?
If Ron plays at his game 7 level, no, the Lakers can’t be beaten with an otherwise healthy roster. That said, I don’t think the Lakers are going to get that type of performance consistently from Ron. In that game, Ron not only played excellent defense (which is a given) but his jumper was falling (for the most part) and he was making the type of instinctive basketball plays – at least on offense - that he hadn’t for most of the year. Playing at that level consistently is difficult when the opportunities are packaged to fit a role player. What I mean by that is, in game 7 Ron took 18 shots which was his high FGA for the season and in the future, I think he’ll still be slotted behind Kobe, Pau, and Bynum and will have to continue to try and do more with less. However, I do believe that Ron will improve in future seasons and we’ll see better efficiency in his shooting numbers and a greater understanding of how to play within the Triangle. That may not equate to a “game 7 level performance” all the time, but I think we’ll see less extremes in performance where Artest gains consistency. Which, in the end, will mean an even stronger Lakers team.
There has been a movement throughout the NBA to look past traditional statistics and look deeper into what the numbers mean. Many teams are adopting ABPRMetrics, such as the Rockets, Mavs, Nuggetsand Trailblazers, even going as far as to employ a statistician on staff. Then there are teams that are “old school” and rely almost solely on the word of scouts. Which camp do the Lakers fall into, or is it somewhere in between?
From everything I’ve read, the Lakers have yet to fully embrace the “Moneyball” movement in Basketball. But, this shouldn’t be surprising considering the philosophy of Phil Jackson’s coaching style. Phil teaches a specific system that isn’t about statistical value but rather how pieces fit to form a team. From an outsiders perspective, Phil’s approach is one where the team is a living, breathing organism that must find a way to function together in a way where stat driven lineups don’t matter as much as the decision making as a group being on the same page with the results produced being dependent on the team seeing the same picture while on the court together. And while I think there is merit to looking at advanced stats or adjusted plus/minus to seek out trends and what helps or hurts a team, I also think there is value in things that can’t be measured by stats. A great example of this would be the debate about whether Fisher or Farmar should have been the starting PG this season. All the advanced stats showed Farmar to be the more effective player on both offense and defense and that the team performed just as well, if not better when Farmar played with the player combinations that Fisher played the majority of his minutes with. However, what the stats didn’t measure was Fisher’s propensity to hit the big shots, organize the offense in a way where the best players got more touches, or how his leadership helped stabilize the team in moments where it was needed most. I do think as advanced stats become more common place in the NBA, more teams will embrace them as a tool, but I think there will always be a place for making coaching decisions without the influence of numbers and by following a “gut feeling” or by judging a situation based off how the pieces “fit” from a chemistry standpoint rather than a pure production one.
How long will Bynum be out at the start of the season? How long does a full recovery take? Since Kobe’s taking time off from playing for the first time in years, will all his various ailments be 100% come the start of the season? I know it’s for developmental players, but the triangle is so hard to learn and fit into for most players, would it make sense for Blake to get some burn in the summer league? Thanks, love the site.
We’ll take these in order. First, I think Bynum will be fully recovered by the time that the season starts. Estimates on recovery time are from anywhere from 2-4 weeks (Brandon Roy came back in less than two weeks these past playoffs), so I think if Bynum has his surgery by the end of this month, he’ll be ready to go by the time training camp in underway in late September/early October. Second, I think Kobe’s ailments will be as good to go as possible by the time the season starts. However, understand that Kobe’s ailments aren’t the type that will magically go away. His finger is arthritic and it may never be the same again. He also has tendinitis in his knee and that is something he’ll have to deal with for the rest of his career. All that said, Kobe’s shown a dedication to his body and physical conditioning that few others have and he’s consistently finding ways to be effective as his athleticism/physical peak decreases. So, I’m confident that Kobe will be good to go and that he’ll definitely benefit from the time off. As for Blake and Summer League, I just don’t see it happening. Blake is a smart player and I trust that he’ll pick up the schemes rather quickly. He’s known to be a student of the game and as a traditional Point Guard, a player that prides himself on being an extension of the coach on the floor. So, while the nuance of playing in the Triangle can be something that takes time to learn, I think Blake will adapt well and be able to contribute rather quickly without much hesitation in where he needs to be within the confines of the Lakers’ sets.
Would you please provide a primer on seeing Summer League games in person? I think I – and perhaps many others – are ready to take this next step to basketball geekdom.
When looking at a team like the Lakers, I think the best way is to focus on the players that the Lakers have an investment in first (Ebanks, Carracter) and then see if anyone else stands out in any meaningful way. I know that I’ll be focusing on the two Lakers rookies, but then I’ll also be paying special attention to Green and Kurz, just because of their past NBA experience and the fact that they have skill sets that the Lakers could use on their team. All that said, when you have a championship roster (like the Lakers do) there’s little chance that any player from Summer League team is going to make any sort of meaningful impact during the regular season. And while some of these guys may get a camp invite, most are likely using their time on the Lakers’ roster as an audition for other teams. Remember, there are scouts and talent evaluators from every team at the Summer League’s and they’re all looking for that potential player that can come in and compete for a roster spot. And while the Lakers may not be the team that takes a flyer on a player, another team may.
Did the lakers not try to sell the Bynum for Bosh deal? Bynum is not going to last and we would be smart trying to deal him while he is young and has value. The lakers are in their last 3 year run starting now so a Bosh or top talent would make sense. You go for the gold now.
With Bosh seemingly about to sign with the Heat, I thought this would be a good chance to put this Bosh/Bynum thing to rest for a while. I’m unsure of how “real” these Bosh for Bynum rumors ever were. From a media and fan standpoint, this was a deal that made sense and I know there was speculation about both sides being “open” to the deal. However, from the standpoint of what we know about the Lakers I’m not sure this information being out there actually makes sense. Just consider this one point – How often, in the past several seasons, have we heard about a Lakers trade from the media before it actually happened? There weren’t any indications of the Gasol trade or the Shannon/Ammo trade. So, I have a hard time believing that the Lakers were actually the ones making waves about acquiring Bosh as they’ve proven that these types of leaks don’t happen when they’re serious about making a deal.
As for the assumption that Bynum is not built to last, as cliche as this sounds – only time will tell. The early results don’t look extremely promising as Bynum has endured several injuries that have limited him over the last three seasons. However, the flip side of that coin is that most of these injuries have been fluke-ish and I’m not convinced there’s a trend of injuries as much as there’s been a trend of bad luck. I’d feel different is this were a Sam Bowie situation where the same foot problem cropped up year after year, but that’s not been the case with ‘Drew. His knee injuries haven’t been of the same variety and both happened in ways where you could easily say he just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Granted, this doesn’t erase the fact that he’s been injured and his future is cloudy in this regard. But, I do think he’s a player worth holding onto based off his (still promising) upside and the role that he fills on this team as a defender/rebounder and a guy that also allows Gasol to play PF for the majority of his minutes. Within the context of this team, I think the Lakers mix of big men is the perfect blend and Bynum is – figuratively and literally - a big part of that.
James and Wade seem to be players that operate best when they have the ball, and are clearly double-alpha guys. Does it really make sense to have them on the same team, or does that dilute their individual value? Will they be at odds over control of the team?
Another question that is relevant with the Lebron about make his decision tomorrow. I’m honestly a bit on the fence with this one. I think there will be times that one of either Lebron or Wade would be frozen out of the offense as the other player tries to create in a way that’s most comfortable to him. However, I’m a firm believer in great players finding ways to figure things out and there aren’t too many players better than James and Wade. Also, I think both players understand the game and play with a level of unselfishness that would aid in any potential partnership. Remember too, these guys have played together on All-Star teams and on Team USA for the past several years. They understand each other’s games and would find ways to compliment each other. I also think that both players would be able to add on to and improve their respective games so that they’d find an even better way to mesh as their careers advanced. In the end, there could possibly be issues of “control” or “who takes the last shot”, but I think a lot of those issues could be worked out if the team is winning and if there are people in coaching/management strong enough to corral their egos and have them focus on the ultimate prize. And again, I think with great players that’s easier than with ones who “think” they’re great but really aren’t that caliber of player. Wade and Lebron are the goods. I think they’d work it out.