Records: Lakers 39-36 Grizzlies 51-24
Offensive ratings: Lakers 107.7 Grizzlies 105.2
Defensive ratings: Lakers 106.6 Grizzlies 100.8
Projected Starting Lineups: Lakers: Steve Blake, Jodie Meeks, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard
Grizzlies: Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Tayshaun Prince, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol
Injuries: Lakers: Steve Nash, Metta World Peace, Jordan Hill
Grizzlies: Tony Wroten
The Lakers Coming in: The Lakers are coming off one of their best and complete wins of the season over the Dallas Mavericks. The Shot distribution between their three main guys — Kobe, Dwight and Pau — was about where you’d like it to be. Kobe had 18, Dwight 13 and Pau 12, and they recorded 23, 24 and 14 points respectively. Instead of increasing his shot volume, Kobe did other things, and he did them very well. Kobe finished with 11 assists and 11 rebounds. Furthermore, other guys stepped up huge on a night where they were down to pretty much a seven-man rotation. Steve Blake had a solid night hitting his spot up jump shots as they became available and Earl Clark had a great night off the bench with 17 points and 12 rebounds. He was much more aggressive than he had been in recent weeks, and after seeing a few shots fall, seemed more confident in the game against the Mavericks than he had looked in the whole month of March.
The Grizzlies Coming in: The Grizzlies come in playing some good, but not their best basketball of the season. They’re coming into tonight’s game in Los Angeles with a four game winning streak with some decent wins. Their last game was in the Rose Garden where they won by 18 over the Trailblazers. Before that, they defeated the Spurs (minus Ginobili) at home, the Timberwolves on the road and the Rockets at home. In those four games, the Grizzlies were awfully stingy on the defensive end of the floor, only allowing 86.5 points per game during their four-game winning streak. On the offensive end of the floor, they’ve been playing a very calculated game and doing a great job of taking care of the ball, turning the ball over fewer than 12 times per game.
Grizzlies Blogs: Make sure you check out 3 Shades of Blue for all of your Grizzlies news and analysis. They do a great job over there.
Keys to game: For tonight’s game, the Lakers are really going to have to focus on rebounding the ball. The Lakers are third in the league in rebounds per game at 44.8 per game as a team, but the Grizzlies rebound much better at a much higher rate. The Grizzlies have the second highest rebound percentage (percentage of all rebounds grabbed per game) and have the league’s second highest rebound differential. So the Lakers may grab more per game, but there are more opportunities to grab rebounds in games that Lakers play in. In the two previous games that the Lakers and Grizzlies faced off in, the Grizzlies won the rebound battle by an average margin of 10 boards a contest — so crashing the boards against the likes of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol is going to be crucial.
Offensively, ball movement and player movement is going to be crucial as the Lakers don’t have a legitimate advantage in any one-on-one situation. Marc and Randolph match up with the Lakers front court of Pau and Howard as any team in the league, as they’re big, physical guys who aren’t afraid of contact and are disciplined within the scheme of the team defensive principles. On the perimeter, the Grizzlies now have two guys who they can rotate on Kobe — and they have to be two of the guys who have been the most successful on Bean over the years. The Grizzlies got rid of Rudy Gay and brought in Prince, whose length has bothered Kobe’s ability to get off his jumper for years. Tony Allen is one of the league’s best on ball defenders, mainly due to his physical nature, strength and lateral quickness. With every great defender, Kobe has had some great games against both of these guys, but the Lakers can’t game plan hoping that Kobe goes off. Guys like Antawn Jamison and Earl Clark are going to have to have big games by their standards for the Lakers to be successful as they’re the two best moving off the ball.
Defensively, keeping Mike Conley out of the paint is going to be crucial. Without Nash starting, the Lakers might be able to do a better job tonight as Blake is a slightly better on ball defender — and definitely more tenacious than Nash ever has been. And if they can’t keep Conley out of the paint, Kobe (and the rest of the perimeter defenders) is going to have to have another good night staying disciplined off the ball. Darius wrote about Kobe’s off the ball defense in Dallas, and the Lakers are going to need a repeat performance from Bean — who has been a good defender when he’s wanted to be. Outside of Conley and staying home on shooters, both Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph can hurt the Lakers anywhere from the rim to 15 feet out, so both Pau and Dwight will have to work hard and will have their hands full all night.
Where you can watch: 7:30 pm start time on TWC Sportsnet. Also listen on ESPN Radio 710AM.