First, a confession: I am an NBA Trade Machine addict. I fiddle around on ESPN’s tool more than I should, always trying to find a way to make the Lakers’ roster better without giving up players I like. Considering my fondness for roster construction and the concept of team building, maybe this isn’t a big surprise. Or, maybe because we still outlaw outright trade speculation in the comments of this site, it is.
Anyways, as someone who likes thinking up trades and someone who is invested in the Lakers’ success has often meant whatever ideas I have wither on the vine. I mean, the Lakers rarely make deals in general and, less frequent, make them in-season. There was that flurry of action on 2012 that saw the team trade Derek Fisher and Luke Walton in separate deals which brought back Ramon Sessions and Jordan Hill, but after that I have trouble remembering a deal the team made before the February deadline.
I say all of this as a reminder that it’s pretty unlikely the Lakers make a trade before the February 23rd deadline. History tells us they won’t for whatever reason. Maybe they value their young players too highly. Maybe the offers teams will make for their expendable veterans either don’t include enough value or are hampered with too much excess the team doesn’t want to take one. Or maybe nothing materializes with enough time left to actually work out the details. As I said on the most recent Laker Film Room podcast, it takes two teams to make a trade and that often complicates things.
Now that I’ve listed all those caveats, I think the Lakers need to make a deal (or more) in the next couple of weeks. Or, maybe better said, I’d like them to.
To get more specific, I’d say that I’m not especially interested in dealing any of the team’s young players. If the right deal came along, I’d consider it but I wouldn’t be actively shopping any of them just for the sake of it. I think, long term, there are ones I’d consider dealing in the right scenario (again, listen the pod — it’s near the end), but those are far fetched, involve a lot of moving parts, and, if we’re being honest, would likely be trumped by offers a team like the Celtics (or even the Nuggets) could offer.
Which brings us to the veterans. If I was ranking which ones I would be actively looking to trade, it would look something like this:
1. Lou Williams. Pete jokes with me on the podcast that trading Lou is one of my favorite pastimes and maybe he’s right. Lou is a very useful player who, if the Lakers were further along in their development towards being competitive, would have more value. And, to be fair, I think in a (somewhat) reduced role, he still has value to this specific Lakers’ roster. But, let’s be real here: he currently lead the team in usage rate and, even though he is capable of getting a handful of assists on any given night, isn’t a “ball mover” in the traditional sense. When he has it going his game can be fun to watch. I enjoy it too! But his flaws (defense, ball domination) are real and this version of the Lakers only exacerbates them. I’d be open to move him for a player still on his rookie contract, preferably one who can either capably run an offense or defend at a plus level (even if that is just projecting forward). It doesn’t matter what position he plays if he can do either of those things.
2. Timofey Mozgov. This is mostly about the combination of his contract and because there are players behind him in the rotation who I think are better fits for this roster. I like Timo, too. He plays hard, is of good character, and by all accounts is good in the locker room and with the young guys. But Zubac needs more minutes. And Black should be playing C, not moonlighting at PF. Now, I don’t think the Lakers could actually trade Mozzie without attaching an asset to grease the tracks. Which, you know, is bad considering he essentially became their top target in free agency. So, the odds he’s dealt are remarkably thin. But this isn’t an exercise on how likely a trade is, but ranking of who I would deal. So he’s #2. Sorry Timo.
3. Jose Calderon. I like the idea of what Calderon provides on the court better than he actually provides it. His shooting has value, but because the Lakers don’t create a lot of spot up options in the half court, that skill mostly goes unused. His ball protection is nice, but when he’s not turning the ball over it’s mostly because he plays such a risk averse game that it’s nearly impossible to cough the ball up. When he does try to do more, he can get turnover prone. On top of that, he’s basically an emergency option at PG and only plays if Russell is hurt and even then it’s not a guarantee. If the Lakers could find a taker for his expiring deal and only got back a late 2nd round pick, I’d call that a major win (especially since he already brought in two future 2nd rounders when the team acquired him from the Bulls).
That’s it. That’s the list.
I’m guessing some thought Deng would be here, but he’s not. I like Deng more than most. If I was making this list a year from now when Ingram is more developed, Deng probably makes the cut. But for now, I see him having utility as a small-ball PF and a real veteran presence in the locker room. Those things mean something to me, both in terms of lineup flexibility and in helping the growth of the young players in ways which (hopefully) will show in coming seasons.
I also almost included Tarik Black here and maybe he should be #4. Black’s deal next year is non-guaranteed and if the Lakers want to create max cap space, Black is likely gone. But I feel…yucky, for lack of a better word, about advocating trading Black when I think he’s a better fit (and, I guess, player) than Mozgov is. Black’s deal is also a bit tricky to trade in a 1-for-1 deal since he makes more than MLE guys and players on rookie deals, but less than guys who are better than him who could help the team. So, he’d be more of a guy you include in larger deals which would likely include a young guy. Maybe none of that should matter when crafting a list of guys to trade, but it’s my list so I make the rules. If you want to trade him, make your own list at your own site.
As for Young, Huertas, Metta, and Robinson, it’s pretty simple for all 4 guys. The latter three would be better buy-out/cut candidates than trades. They all make either the minimum or slightly above it which means they have zero trade value. Young, meanwhile, is a low usage, high volume 3-point shooter/maker. He can get a little too shot happy, but he tries on defense (even if he’s not always successful) and his role as a “finisher” is, to me at least, quite different than Lou’s as “initiator/creator/finisher”.
So, if you’re scoring at home, I just found a long winded way to say the Lakers should be actively looking to trade Lou Williams. I think there’d be a market for him and, if the team is serious about it, they could make a deal. Again, I think they should (even though they probably won’t).
new rr says
“First, a confession: I am an NBA Trade Machine addict.”
Somebody needs to tell Darius that his site has been hacked by a trade machine junkie with a similar writing style.
fern16 says
So your aunty makes all that money and only could afford a piece of crap Eclipse? She needs a fulltime.
_ Robert _ says
Williams: Been saying he needs to go since the day he was signed. Let’s get a high 2nd rounder for him and be done with it. If we get a low first that is even better.
Mosgov: We never should have signed this guy and now dealing him would be very difficult. Nobody wants his contract unless we give them value or if we take back their unwanted contract.
Deng: I assume he is not on the list because trading him would be impossible. Why was he signed again? However – this logic means that including Mosgov on the list is wishful thinking.
We should not do any deals which send picks out or where we take long term boat anchor contracts – we have enough of those already.
_ Robert _ says
Bairon: If anyone will take either one of those guys – then by all means. With the conditions that we do not ship out picks or take back bad deals. Actually in Deng’s case – we can ship the 2nd round pick and Deng. Chances are – nothing will get done. This is our recent history.
BigCitySid10552 says
Truly believe Sweet Lou Williams will be on a contender by the trade deadline. Cavs appear to be the most logical, hoping for a late 1st rounder in return. Young guys need more minutes on court at this stage of season. Moving Nick Young & a big also very viable. W/b surprised if Mozgov is that big. Agree on not moving any young blood at this stage.
TempleOfJamesWorthy says
I long thought the reason the Lakers picked up Nick Young and Lou Williams was simply to replenish their asset stock. I don’t think management was under any illusions they were part of the long-term development plan.
Unfortunately, I don’t think the FO fully appreciated how much the league evolved and how much the space-and-pace 3-pointer-centric offensive revolution would diminish the value of high-volume ball-stopping scorers like Young and L-Will.
Since Young and L-Will cost the Lakers nothing except cap space (and some public embarrassment in the case of Young…:-P…), both of those acquisitions are defensible, even if the Lakers are unable to get much for them in the trade market.
The acquisitions of Mozgov and Deng are also somewhat defensible, given the confluence of market conditions the Lakers faced including:
–The massive explosion in the salary cap (and salary floor)
–The Lakers being a bad team. Bad teams are forced to overpay to attract FAs
–The desire of the front office to be seen as “doing something” and doing something early in the free agent signing period. Yes, the FO ***shouldn’t*** feel compelled to do something for the sake of doing something, but that’s where they found themselves last summer.
The indefensible part was the 4-year contract lengths. I think they could have snagged Mozzy/Deng with 2-years + player option 3rd-year or 3-years + team option 4th-year contracts.
Both players DO have value. If the Lakers waived Mozgov tomorrow, the Cavs would pick him up in a heartbeat. Meanwhile, the recent Lakers-Celtics game showed the disadvantage of having a SF platoon of Young (6’7′ – 210 lbs) and Ingram (6’9″ 98 lbs soaking wet). Jae Crowder (listed 6’6′ 225, probably more like 235-240) absolutely pummeled both of them. Deng as a “heavy” SF and/or “small” PF is a useful addition to the roster. Just not at 4 years/$72 million.
BigCitySid10552 says
Recent update on Lou Williams incredible value:
NBA PER Last 5 Games:1. Curry: 38.1
2. I. Thomas: 34.1
3. L. Williams: 33.0
4. Westbrook: 32.1
5. Cousins: 32.0
https://t.co/nR2bWPNAmv
LT Mitchell says
If the Hawks can get a first rounder for an aging 35 year old Korver who hasn’t been the same since his elbow surgery in 2015….. I would imagine Lou, who is currently top 30 in PER this season, could also fetch a first rounder…… or package Deng and Lou for a second rounder and expiring contracts. Getting rid of Deng’s contract may be more important for the future of the Lakers than acquiring a first round pick.
TempleOfJamesWorthy says
LT Mitchell
The difference is Korver fits into the Cavs scheme of surrounding their “Big 3” with perimeter shooters, and Cleveland is in Win Now mode (as evidenced by LeBron’s recent complaints about needing more help). I’m not sure which team sees Lou-Will as the puzzle piece which vaults them a notch up the contention ladder.
There may be one, but I can’t think of one right now.
Clay Bertrand says
LT Mitchell
“Getting rid of Deng’s contract may be more important for the future of the Lakers than acquiring a first round pick.”
___________________________________________________________________________
EXACTLY.
I don’t disagree with Darius on the value Deng brings, its THE PRICE TAG AND LENGTH OF CONTRACT that make me urgently want to ditch his deal if at all possible.
I am of the belief that if you think its hard to move him TODAY, think about when he starts to REALLY DECLINE and is still being paid $18 Mil per. Its like there MAY be a slight opening in the window where he still has some value to someone NOW but that window will close very quickly and permanently by next year.
I don’t hate Deng. I hate his contract.
I think Mozgov COULD potentially get moved to a team like Orlando or someone else who may want to swap out their own BUYERS REMORSE signing.
Deng is borderline UNMOVABLE now and will only be more unmovable with each passing day.
Clay Bertrand says
TempleOfJamesWorthy
Both players DO have value—–BUT not at the prices they are being paid over 4 years. I agree your contract terms would make them much more easy to stomach.
cyborgspider says
If previous seasons are any indication, the FO is standing pat. The last trade deadline move of any consequence was Steve Blake to the Warriors (this was after DFish was sent packing, right?) for Kent Bazemore and Brooks. Even though Kent moved on to Atlanta, people could see his potential (same for Brooks, although it worked against his favor. He was a dud). But at least we GOT A LOOK.
Jordan Hill, Pau Gasol, Jeremy Lin, and I’m pretty sure even if Carlos Boozer WERE trade-eligible, the Lakers wouldn’t try to move him either, even for a couple of low second-rounders. The appearance of “not tanking”, or keeping continuity, or admitting that certain offseason acquisitions weren’t in the best interests of the team, was too much to swallow for the FO and they did nothing. (Or maybe the rest of the league didn’t want to cooperate so they offered nothing in return or demanded the Lakers themselves attach more picks. I can buy that somewhat)
But no good offers for Lou are available? I’m looking at teams desperate to make the playoffs like Orlando and Sacramento, or teams that are trying to reach the 2nd round of the playoffs (let’s be honest, the only title-worthy teams are GS, SA and CLE.) That puts Atlanta, Washington, Rockets, and a few others into the Lou picture. But not a peep…
Obviously, time will tell, but I’ll bet the house that Lou will be a Laker come season’s end.
Clay Bertrand says
_ Robert _
I think you’d have to attach ALOT more to Deng than a second rounder to sweeten a deal. His money would have to be matched coming back as well which is problematic in and of itself.
I think the most likely trade partners are others tems with guys they wish they hadn’t signed or via some kind of 3 way deal.
FredP says
It makes sense to move Williams if it means that Clarkson plays PG. The Lakers need to find out if Clarkson can regain the form he showed his rookie season. For the time being, Williams is so much better than Clarkson on offense that deferring to him is the right basketball play. Pair Clarkson with a SG who needs help getting shots and see what he can do.
Clay Bertrand says
cyborgspider
I think Lou has value around the league as well. The asking price must be realistic to get him moved though. I have thought about Washington and Houston as well. A lot of teams could use his scoring off the bench and be very improved with his addition in that area.
cyborgspider says
Clay Bertrand what’s your bare minimum to make deal for Lou? Mine is either
A) a first round pick (no later than 20th, anything higher should come with a 2nd rounder)
B) no asset returned but they take Moz or Deng (bwuahahaha)
C) a couple of young benchwarmers with 3&D; potential (Bazemore & Shannon Brown redux)
D) Straight-up for a veteran making about the same amount of cash, but fits the mold of the team better. Like a Trevor Ariza, or defensive-minded PG
_Chris J says
BigCitySid10552 The Cavs can’t trade the Lakers a first-round pick for Williams, at least not one before the 2021 draft. NBA rules forbid teams from dealing their first-round picks in consecutive years — The Stepien Rule, remember?
Cleveland just dealt its 2017 first-rounder to the Blazers and its 2019 No. 1 was dealt to the Hawks, both as part of the process of landing Korver.
samla says
i think we should trade williams or young or both — of course mozgov or deng if anyone would take their contracts — of course only 2 of 4 of them — shouldnt okc want a shooter to help russ out
new rr says
Clay Bertrand TempleOfJamesWorthy
Deng’s PER is 10.9. Mozgov’s is 12.2. Average in that metric is about 15; replacement-level is about 10.
However, of course, PER, while useful, says very little/nothing about defense. As noted many times lately, the Lakers are at the bottom of the NBA in team D, 29th as per Bask Ref, allowing 112.7 points/100 possessions. This is one point worse than last year, and even adjusting for the fact that scoring is up around the league, the defense has not improved in any meaningful way. The Lakers’ team rim-protection numbers are terrible, and that was one of Mozgov’s selling points.
One of Deng’s, supposedly, was mentoring Ingram. The fact that Ingram is playing at a sub-replacement level on O (7.3 PER) and has negative numbers on D (although they are not bad at all for a 19-year-old) is not surprising. I like Ingram, but he does not appear to be on a notably good development arc so far, even taking his age into account.
Zubac, of course, has been excellent, and Walton, positive guy that he is, publicly credited Mozgov for being a big help to Zubac, and maybe Mozgov is a big help. But that just takes us back to preseason discussions: 136M is a lot to pay for mentoring, and it is hard to see much other tangible value that Deng and Mozgov are bringing to the team right now. That is not to say that some value of some kind isn’t there, but it isn’t showing up in the team’s offensive or defensive performance at this point.
wwlofficial says
The pressure of Randle’s next big contract scares me. His game, though incomplete and inconclusive at this point, is too far along for my liking. Physically, he’s a beast. But mentally, he simply isn’t a top dawg player. He can be a junkyard kinda guy for us, but is that really what we would be paying him come the time? Trading Randle for good return is questionable, but he should atleast be on the block.
wwlofficial says
hovobif LMAO if you think anyone would.
Clay Bertrand says
cyborgspider Clay Bertrand
I think I’d agree with your priority list here for Lou. I may be willing to take a lower 1st rounder than 20 but not much lower.
The Mozzy/Deng option I would jump at!! Lol
The Banchwarmer Option player(s) would have to have more upside than OUR CURRENT Benchwarmers (I.E. Metta, Huertas, Jose, TRob) but as you suggest taking a flyer on a Bazemore/SBrown type that COULD be doable.
The VET with a better fit is a good option perhaps as well depending on the player.
IF, and that is a VERY BIG IF, we could pry away a disappointing player with upside still on a rookie deal or a young guy stashed overseas by a team, I would really favor that kind of move it we are not getting a 1st Rounder……..
Alas as they say, if Wishes were Horses, then Beggers would Ride!!!!!
Clay Bertrand says
new rr Clay Bertrand TempleOfJamesWorthy
Jesus!!!! Those PER stats are nauseating……..SMH……..
Stats don’t tell the WHOLE story as you allude to, but these PER stats along with the KNOWN contract details of these players and the Lakers LOW defensive rankings across the board are a damning indictment on the TM and LD signings IMO.
I’m not worried about Ingram at this point because I think his development has been so wide open. I mean to say that he has so much to learn, he has been exposed to so many different usages as a player that I’m sort of giving him a pass.
To me with Ingram, its as if he is being developed as an ALL AROUND player with an abstractly defined role encompassing many aspects of the game but not tied to any one position on the floor. They have him dabbling in so many facets of the game and I DO feel like he is learning and growing. Its just that he is being exposed to SO MUCH, I don’t think he is ready to start gaining traction in any one part of the game yet.
A hazy view of a point forward type of player is there perhaps but its hard to say at this point. I think once his role comes better into focus, we will see him start to improve statistically. That is my HOPE at least.
Clay Bertrand says
wwlofficial
Tougher is that he could not play his rookie year meaning we only get two years to see him before having to make a decision on goving him his extension. In a perfect world, we’d have a better sample size to evaluate.
cyborgspider says
wwlofficial He’s eligible for a contract extension this offseason but he’s not a restricted free agent until the 2018 season… so 30 games more and another 82 next year to make that call. Even then, since they have Bird Rights, they can sign other free agents first and then go over the cap to give him a big deal.
I’m hoping for a Clarkson-type bargain deal, maybe 18m per, if he stays at his current level? As opposed to a Damian Lillard (24m per year average)/McCollum (26.5m per average) max-level contract for a four-year player.
If he becomes Draymond 2 next season, then yes, max him out, but if he’s a 10-8-5 guy with flashes of rebounding or defensive dominance, I hope he and his agent understand the position the Lakers are in. I also hope he doesn’t get pissed if the Lakers don’t extend him this offseason, they need as much money heading into 2018 Free Agency as they can get.
BuckFoston says
This might be a little specific, but hopefully the Lakers have asked the Magic about Nick Young for Mario Hezonja. The Magic are in win-now mode, they just maxed Fournier this summer at his position, and he’s getting DNP’s and slumping. I read on ESPN at some point, that the Magic aren’t down for waiting for him to develop, and could use Renaissance Nick Young right now. Trade machine says a Swaggy swap gets them 4 more wins: http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=hkxmf4p Is this a terrible idea for the Magic, or not enough value for Nick?
Clay Bertrand says
BuckFoston
IMO, there is blood in the water in Orlando and that is one of the places moves are bound to be taking place over the next 6 months. That roster is badly built.
I would LOVE to take a flyer on a guy still on a rookie contract. Super Mario would qualify as that for sure. BUT, I don’t think Orlando has any interest or need for Swaggy at this point. They are NOT in win-now mode IMO. Rather, they are in “HOLY CRAP WHY DO WE HAVE 3 STARTING CENTERS!?!?!?!” Mode from what I can see.
BuckFoston says
Clay Bertrand BuckFoston I forgot to include that the Magic might not be thinking entirely rationally right now due to a nervous front office, kind of like the Mozzy Deng summer of love the Lakers just had. How about, Sweet Lou, Swaggy & Huertas for Mario & Green. It adds 14 wins on the trade machine, so they can’t not do it. http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=gr7f6vh 🙂