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Renato Afonso is a long time reader, commenter, and friend of FB&G.. He is based in Portugal, played semi-pro hoops, and after that coached his alma mater for two years. He now passes his time in a veteran’s league while waiting the arrival of his first born. This is his inaugural post at FB&G. Welcome, Renato!

In today’s NBA there’s a lot of talking about spacing, ball sharing, efficiency and advanced statistics. Teams like the Rockets assume that feeding a big man in the low post is nonsense and the long two is absolutely forbidden, maximizing the number of shots at the rim, three pointers and free throws.

But this new way of thinking can only be applied when you have good three point shooters, guys that are able to get to the rim and good free throw shooters. Obviously, a free throw is always uncontested but one can argue that an open midrange jump shot may be the most effective shot an offense can get at any given moment. Sometimes the defense doesn’t allow you to finish at the rim or simply denies open three point shots and all you’re left with is what the defense gives you. When such thing happens there’s an obligation to convert those midrange jumpshots. With this, the best shot isn’t necessarily a three pointer but actually the available open shot. It goes without saying that long contested twos are obviously worse than long contested threes. This is also assuming average players and not statistical outliers like our own Kobe Bryant.

In the midst of these thoughts, I found myself completely absorbed by the Grizzlies-Warriors series that proved that there are different ways to run an offense, there are different ways to play proper defense and talent can be presented in several ways.

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Is it just me or is the sun a bit brighter today?

Even if it’s not, it sure feels like it after the Lakers not only held on to their top-5 protected draft pick, but moved up to the 2nd slot overall by leapfrogging the Knicks (sorry, Phil) and the 76ers (more on them in a minute) at Tuesday’s NBA Draft Lottery. No, the Lakers didn’t get all the way to #1, but getting to #2 is a fantastic turn of events for an organization which hasn’t had many things go right in the last two plus seasons.

So, in the wake of all this happiness, below are 10 thoughts in the aftermath of the Lakers lucky lottery:

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Yes, the lead up to this was brutal. Sitting there watching the theatrics and built-in drama of the event was, well, not how I wanted to spend my time. I’d have honestly preferred to have been able to fast-forward this entire day with someone telling me the results just now.

Yet, there I was watching it all unfold. Like a kid reading one of those choose you own adventure novels, I was wondering if when I “turned to page X” it was going to be some unmitigated disaster or if some better, glorious fate awaited.

Turns out, the wait was well worth it. The Lakers not only keep their lottery pick, but they move up to the 2nd spot overall, sitting behind the Timberwolves and leapfrogging the Knicks and the 76ers in the process.

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

So, now we know. The Lakers will not only keep their pick, but be able to choose from all but one prospect come next month’s draft. Now, the question is, what will the Lakers do with that opportunity? Thrilled to say we get to find out.

Will today be the day that a little bit of luck interjects into the lives of Lakers’ fans? We can only hope.

Really, hope is all we can do. This isn’t like a big game where actual performance of professional athletes will determine the outcome. I remember the lead up to game 7 in the 2010 Finals and being a wreck, wondering if any one of a thousand variables would shift the game towards the Celtics. This is not that.

Tonight’s outcome will be determined by a machine spitting out numbered lottery balls to create a number sequence that determines the winner. That’s it.

No adjustments or pep talks or random role player performance will tilt the result. This doesn’t make it less stressful, but it does make it different. We’d all feel somewhat better if the Lakers’ pick would be theirs for sure, but, alas, we all know that is not the case.

For now, though, let’s detach ourselves from the anxiousness and review some of the key numbers and the odds of where the Lakers’ pick will land:

  • The Lakers have an 82.8% chance of retaining their pick
  • Odds the Lakers stay at #4: 9.9%
  • Odds the Lakers drop to #5: 35.1%
  • Odds the Lakers move up to #3: 13.3%
  • Odds the Lakers move up to #2: 12.6%
  • Odds the Lakers move up to #1: 11.9

Of course, if the Lakers have an 82.8% chance of keeping their pick, they have a 17.2% chance of losing it to the 76ers. Those odds break down like this:

  • Odds the Lakers fall to #6: 16.0%
  • Odds the Lakers fall to #7: 1.2%

Of note from all these numbers: The single most likely individual result is that the Lakers fall to #5. The next likely is that the Lakers fall to #6 (WELP). After that, however, there is a better chance that the Lakers move up to #’s 3, 2, or 1 (YES, PLEASE) than stay at #4.

So, based on the above, if you take comfort in numbers, you are still stressing the hell out. Yeah, I actually think I liked the feeling before the 2010 Game 7 better than this.

We’ll be back later with the results. ‘Til then, don’t mind me, I’ll just be sitting over there in the corner sweating this thing out.

Jordan Clarkson came on strong in the 2nd half of the season when he was inserted into the starting lineup in the 45th game of his rookie campaign. That first start came against the Spurs where Clarkson scored 11 points on 5-9 shooting while chipping in three rebounds and four assists. It wasn’t an eye popping performance and his statline doesn’t necessarily stand out, but that game showed glimmers of a rookie who could play in this league.

Fast forward over the rest of the season and Clarkson did more than show glimmers – he proved to be one of the better players on the team. Post All-Star break, Clarkson started 28 of the team’s 29 games (missing the last game of the year due to injury) and averaged 16.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists while shooting 47.9% from the floor and 84.3% from the FT line.

It was on the strength of those numbers that Clarkson was named to the NBA’s All-Rookie 1st Team. He is joined by Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins, Nerlens Noel, Nikola Mirotic, and Elfrid Payton. Clarkson earned 74 1st team votes and 52 2nd team votes, for a total of 200 points. That was 58 points better than Marcus Smart who headlines the 2nd Team.

It is interesting Clarkson edged out Smart since the latter was a player the Lakers were linked to heavily in the lead up to last June’s draft. The Lakers, of course, ended up selecting Julius Randle with their #7 pick with Smart going one pick earlier to the Celtics at #6. Time will tell who will end up the better player between Randle and Smart, but the fact that Clarkson, the 46th pick in the draft, ended up making the 1st team speaks volumes to his growth and play as the year progressed and the Lakers’ ability to find a gem later in the draft.

Hopefully, Clarkson can build on his success from the second half of last season and carry that over into this Summer and next season. Considering his work ethic and ability to take in what he learns off the court and apply it to game situations, I know we are all thinking he can. So, here’s to more plays like the ones below next season and beyond.