For all the talk on this site about building the right way, getting players that fit your system and the like, the hardest part of building a championship team is getting at least one transcendent player.
You need The Man. MJ. Shaq. Detroit was the exception, but for the most part you need the unstoppable force and team leader. And those guys don’t grow on trees. Duncan. LeBron. Garnett.
And Kobe. Last night was one of a few games recently where he put the team on his back and won a game. When he had to do that for 82 games the last couple of years, the burden was too much. But this year, when he can pick those spots, you see how amazing he is.
Here are some thoughts from commenter 81Wittness, who was at the game in ARCO:
Some notes from the game, but first, what did I say yesterday?
“About the Kings: The Lakers can dominate if they take the ball to the cup early and consistently. While the Kings perimeter defense is good, their interior defense is terrible. I do not give much credit to Miller and Moore. They also get into foul trouble easily. I know Kobe has recently tried to get his teammates involved, but it would be nice for him to get to the rack early and often.”
Lakers won tonight because Kobe et al. took the ball to the rack with a serious mission in the 4th. Had they done it the hole game instead of these namby, pamby, passes, maybe they would have blown them out. More:
“Sometimes Artest will bring the ball up. Luke, Sasha, and Kobe need to give up space and let him shoot. This was how he destroyed the Kings under Musselman. However, do not let him take you to the interior as he will out-muscle most of the Lakers and draw a foul. Same thing goes for Salmons. He has been struggling from outside lately.”
Saw Artest thrown some clunkers down the stretch. As soon as he dribbled down the court and put them up, everyone knew it was a brick. Salmons played well, but did it on mostly interior plays. Terrible job by the machine, Kobe, and anybody else guarding him.
About the crowd:
It was 3:2 Kings vs. Lakers. Lots of Lakers fans in the crowd. I loved hearing the echo of Luke in the first. Also, when Martin shot up the airball, lots of airball from the crowd. Lots of chants of MVP down the stretch. This #24 might be an okay player.
My two cents on the game: The Lakers in the second half of the fourth quarter got back to doing what made them so impressive at the start of the year. They played aggressive pressure defense. Then they grabbed the rebound and ran, getting transition buckets or getting shots off before the defense really got set.
Here’s a little breakdown to show you what I mean — with just more than six minutes left the Lakers started their run. (And if Lawler’s Law were actually a law, the Lakers have just lost.)
6:14, 100-93 Kings. Kobe isolated on the wing against Salmons, and Salmons is having a nice season that is asking too much. Kobe blows past him, there is no rotation help and Salmons fouls. Kobe hits both.
5:56, 100-95 Kings. Beno does his best Curly Neal and never gives up the dribble — he takes the inbounds, comes up the court, watches the other Kings go through the offense for 10 seconds, decides he should just take Fisher and drives past him into the lane. Both Gasol and Odom collapse, forcing Beno to alter his shot then Gasol grabs the rebound on the miss.
This is the one time the Lakers don’t run off a miss, and look at the result. After going through a little two-man game between Kobe and Gasol that nets nothing promising, Kobe gets his isolation and goes to one of his standard moves — he swings the ball through and tries to draw the foul on a reaching opponent. Except this time he loses the handle out of bounds. Ah, but Kobe can sell it —- he says Artest touched it and the refs agree. Come on, it’s not like Kobe has a bum finger on one hand and would just lose control of the ball. On the inbounds the Lakers have little time so it’s a quick long three by Kobe that misses.
There are times the King’s offense just seems to have no focal point or direction. Like this possession, where the Kings run through some isolations and half-hearted picks until they just clear out for Artest (with Odom on him) and we get the 18-foot contested jumper that misses.
Kobe gets the rebound and the best way to run a break is to have the rebounder bring it up, so that’s what Kobe does. He blows by everyone except Artest, who fouls in the act. Kobe hits both free throws.
4:53, 100-97 Kings. Salmons gets the ball in the high post with Luke on him, thinks to himself “if I can’t get by Luke I shouldn’t be in the league,†then proceeds to blow by Luke. Gasol rotates over and forces him to alter his layup, and the result is a miss.
Quick outlet pass and Kobe brings the ball up in transition but doesn’t have numbers so he stops on the wing. Gasol, running down the court, looks like he is going to set the “drag†high pick early in the clock, but slips it as Miller and Artest try to trap Kobe. What have we said about how well these Lakers can pass? Kobe splits the double with a pass to a wide-open Gasol who goes in for a little runner hook shot. Good.
4:28, 100-99 Kings. Sacramento wastes no time trying to isolate Artest with Odom on him. Artest starts on the wing, drives baseline, draws a nice little crowd of defenders, decides to shoot anyway and misses.
In the rush down court Kevin Martin (not Artest) picks up Kobe. He can’t cover Kobe in isolation. The result is a foul, two free throws and more points.
Time out Kings.
4:06 101-100 Lakers. The Kings again go through their set where Miller gets the ball out sort of high, tries to back in on Gasol and eventually picks up his dribble, looking to hand off to Martin. Except that Kobe plays good denial defense and has Martin blanketed. Miller decides to go with the up-and-under on Gasol from 8 feet out. Let’s just say that’s not Miller’s game.
Kobe with the rebound, and what did we say about rebounding and leading the break? Kobe goes down, puts on the crazy spin move at the free throw line, gets the layup. Damn he makes that look easy.
3:28, 103-100 Lakers. Beno has the ball and Artest has to come out past the three-point line to get it. Odom wisely plays a step back daring Artest to shoot the three. Artest like a dare, he takes the shot. No good.
It’s the Kobe show, he brings the ball up and the rest of the guys might as well go get something to drink because Kobe is not passing. He drives into the heart of the Kings defense. He is fouled in the act. Two shots. The crowd shots M-V-P while Kobe is at the line. Ziller throws up a little in his mouth.
3:13, 105-100 Lakers. The Kings want to get Artest the ball in a good spot, but Odom’s length is bothering Artest. So the ball swings out top and they try to get it to Martin off a screen, but Kobe is everywhere denying the pass. Ultimately Mikki Moore has to create his own shot, and he can’t do it before the shot clock expires.
The Lakers bring the ball up but just over half court, before the defense is set, Fisher sees Odom wide open in the corner. Odom drives but Moore makes a nice rotation to pick up the charge.
Kevin Martin gets a down-screen from Brad Miller and curls around at the free throw line where Beno feds him the ball. But Fisher slides down and knocks the ball out of Martin’s hands.
Fisher launches the long bounce outlet to Kobe, who grabs it for the 360-spinning dunk.
Time out Kings but the game is done. And it was pressure defense and running that get the Lakers the win.
UPDATE: Check out Sactown Royalty, where Ziller bribed ESPN’s David Thorpe with a free dinner (I’m guessing) to comment on the fourth quarter from last night.
Martin had 16 shots in 3 quarters, with just one in the 4th. Only 2 touches overall. I wonder if the Kings would have scored just 18 fourth quarter points if Martin was just as central to their attack as Kobe was to the Lakers. And I also wonder if Kobe would have been so effective as a scorer in the 4th if he had to chase Martin around screens and hand-offs and backdoor cuts the entire quarter. We don’t know if Martin can carry this team over the Lakers in crunch time. I’d like to find out. I’m sure Miller would love lots of 4th quarter touches.
Kobe was on Martin for a reason – Phil Jackson wanted the Kings to go to Artest. Had Artest started making shots, I’d guess Kobe would have switched onto him. The Kings did exactly what the Lakers’ hoped they would do.
Remer says
Great analysis! It was also nice to see Radman back in action.
ian says
Hey Kurt. In the 3:28 segment you say “the rest of the guys might as go get something to drink…” You forgot the “well.”
Kurt says
2. Change made. Thanks.
the other Stephen says
i hope no one gets into a fight with the lakers or anything else retarded that would prevent us from preserving a nice, full roster.
paul says
the game changed when the lakers started playing defense, especially kobe. remember those easy layups by salmons and martin in the first half? that was kobe’s man. then watch the last 6 minutes. kobe races across the court on martin’s shoulder, plows through double screens and basically takes martin out of the game.
such an obvious lack of effort for an entire half by the team leader is frustrating, especially when the effort comes back later and is really effective. this off/on defense won’t work in the playoffs. the spurs don’t do that.
the last 6 min of the game were heroic, mvp type stuff. i think most fans would say that the team needs stiff doses of that from time to time. but we need good intense defense consistently.
newbie says
Should we be encouraged by the way the lakers are winning despite not playing their best, or discouraged since the last couple of games have been real sloppy?
Eric says
Signature Kobe performance last night telling us why he is the MVP. I’m just concerned about our mental lapses. We have to get our team defense to play 48 minutes.
J.D. Hastings says
I don’t think Garnett fits this mold. I love him as a player and as a person but The Man doesn’t miss the playoffs two years like he did. The only time he’s gotten out of the first round he had Sam Cassell and Sprewell to take that burden off his shoulders, just like he has Pierce and, to a lesser extent, Ray Allen now. Garnett is not a take over in the 4th and dominate as much as he has to to win kind of guy. He may be the best player on his team but he needs someone else to find the next gear when it matters.
Kurt says
5. Paul, the Spurs don’t take games off? Did you see the first half of the season?
I’d like to see the defense improve as well, but don’t confuse the effort of a mid-season game in Sacramento with the playoffs.
TC says
That was the sweetest MVP chant I’ve heard for Kobe. How times have changed in Cow-uh, Sac-town. What a performance by #24. Still an’ all, I don’t know about you guys, but when Stu and Joel mentioned (on KCAL 9) that Kobe only had such and such a number of points during the third, I I wasn’t the slightest bit worried. We know Kobe’s mindset shifts during the 4th. It’s been so for a long time. Boy that was fun to watch. And is that one of the quietest 31 points anyone’s ever scored which Pau had last night? Oh man it’s wonderful being a Laker fan at the moment.
Dave Fallon says
5 – I agree. The 4th quarter heroics by kobe were awesome, but he was a large chunk of what put them in that situation with poor defense on martin/salmons/etc. He seemed to get fustrated with the screens, and just give up too many times. Play that way from the beginning and you’re up by 20 going into the fourth.
The kings offense was interesting – it was surprisingly shallow. They had 5? 6? nice set plays, but other than that (and when the set play didn’t develop) they had nothing. I wonder if that’s because it’s Theus’s first season and he hasn’t had the time to get them up to speed play-wise, or he’s just not very good and doesn’t have anything more than that. As a lakers fan, it reminded me how nice it is to have the triangle to run, so you never (heh) have the problem of the broken play, you’re just moving on to the next opportunity.
kwame a. says
9-I loved that MVP chant, but my favorite was last year in BOSTON.
tony starks says
I was going to spend most of this post complaining about how we gave up so many layups, or how the Machine is slumping at the moment, or how much we could use a big man-enforcer like Brad Miller on our team, or how enjoyable it was to watch our defense kind of lock down in the 4th (highlighted with the Kings possession at the 3:13 mark Kurt mentioned where Phil STOOD UP the entire time and actually applauded the effort after the shot clock expired), bu really though….
I gotta give it up to Black Mamba. I couldn’t see myself saying this at the beginning of the season, but I couldn’t be happier for the guy. Seeing him smile like that in the post-game interview with chants of “MVP” in the background – put a smile on my face. He is the MVP of the lig. It doesn’t even matter anymore if he wins the real award, those who watch the man know. And one thing in my mind that stands out about him – the reason I know he is the MVP – is cuz I know that if he does get robbed for the award, it’ll only serve to light a stronger fire under him, with a stronger chip on his shoulder.
I applaud the man, and his last 2 virtuoso performances especially.
Kurt says
Over at Sactown Royalty, Ziller got ESPN’s David Thorpe to talk about that fourth quarter. Must read:
http://www.sactownroyalty.com/story/2008/3/5/15259/85570
81 Witness says
Kurt,
Good analyis of the defense and the transition. I completely missed it, but I think the Kings just got tired in comparison to a “shutdown” defense. The Kings offense looked life-less. Do not know if it was a conditioning issue or what.
Also, outstanding game from the son of Bill. Luke does a lot of those small things so correctly. He boxed out Miller and stopped him from dominating in the paint down the stretch. Luuuukkkkeeeeee!!!
kwame a. says
Kurt-I liked that piece by Thorpe, but my question to him would be in regards to the lack of touches by Martin. I think Kobe was denying him the ball and chasing him through some screens, I don’t think he was resting at all. If anything, the only reason Martin was scoring earlier in the game was because Kobe was resting then. Last 5 minutes it was tight d and great o. Martin shrunk, many wilt in similar fashion to KB.
Nate Jones-People at my school are using your article as evidence for why Kobe should win MVP, I’m lovin it.
carter blanchard says
Came here basically to say the same thing that kwame a just said: I think Martin’s lack of touches had plenty to do with Kobe’s denial. I love Thorpe’s insight into his players, but I feel like he and the commentors over there are underestimating how frustrating it is to have Kobe decide, “this guy’s just flat out not going to get the ball.” Could they have ran more curls, screens, etc? Probably. Would Kobe have made all that extra work feel worthless by being there to muscle him regardless? I think so.
Also really enjoyed Nate Jones’ piece. Despite my mancrush for KD, the argument that LeBron’s stats > Kobe’s stats doesn’t work for me at all. If Kobe had to average 35 to win he could (which he’s proven). The fact that he has teammates now to help bear the load shouldn’t be held against him when for the past two years the fact that he didn’t. If he had gotten MVP in 05-06 I’d have little issue with LeBron holding it up this year.
anoni says
I thing that set the Pistons apart was that their players provide what those ‘big pieces’ contribute. Leadership, clutch, toughness, defense.
Gatinho says
Wanting to feature Martin is easier said than done in this game. That being said, I realize that Thorpe and Ziller are trying to shine light on the trend of Theus to go away from Martin in the 4th quarter.
carter blanchard says
Ya, maybe this is a recurring trend I wouldn’t know about (because who watches the Kings unless you absolutely have to), but in this particular game I feel Kobe deserves at least as much credit as Theus for Kmart’s 4th quarter dissapearance.
Also, upon reading KD’s defense of his LeBron’s piece, feel the need to admit that I oversimplified it unfairly in my comment. The bottom line is there’s plenty of good reasons to go with either player (and Paul too for that matter), so no matter what someone’s getting snubbed. LeBron’s plenty deserving, and saying he shoudlnt be punished for Kobe’s snub in 05-06 is completely valid. But this Laker fan does think the same rules that kept Kobe from winning then should allow him to win now. (I sorta can’t believe I’m engaging in this debate; who really cares)
Travis Y. says
Kobe-have was the name of my fantasy team this year and because of the media’s man-crush on Lebron it’s going to unleash Furious Kobe. If writers and other NBA MVP voters neglect to award Kobe, you are going to have to redo Bill Simmons’ vengeance scale and add “black mamba” to the 9’s for sure. I hope he doesn’t get the MVP b/c that’ll just ensure that we get to the Finals. So keep it up, and rally the other writers while you’re at it.
I guarentee Kobe unleashes something special against the Spurs (Western CF, b/c of the late announcement of the regular season MVP).
on another note…
I hope we don’t exert too much energy on this playoff run to the extent that we don’t have enough to endure a tough 7 game matchup with the Spurs.
things we need…
1. Bynum healthy and effective defensively
2. Lamar to step up and be able to be clutch (has lacked that his entire career, check simmon’s latest mailbag for proof)
3. Role players to make some contributions
4. Gasol to get at least 20 ppg and make teams play Kobe honest.
5. Kobe to be healthy, b/c he’ll do the rest.
j. d. hastings says
I love reading Thorpe’s work. I learn something new everytime I read it. Late in the game I remember watching Kobe chasing Martin around but if Thorpe says that he didn’t for most of the quarter, I’ll trust that was the case for the many possessions I wasn’t aware of that matchup.
HOWEVER. From a journalistic perspective it bothers me a little that he writes about his own clients so often. He doesn’t hide the fact thet they’re his clients, nor is he trying to sell me stock in Kevin Martin, but it still seems problematic to me. By writing positive articles on his clents, the line between analysis and advocacy is blurred. Presenting an article as analysis when it is advocacy is unethical.
I don’t think Thorpe is cynically using emails to bloggers or his own column as a PR adjunct to his training business. Even if somebody was doing something that sleazy I doubt I would be victimized in any real way. But it’s a bad precedent to set journalistically.
This is probably an issue best brought up with the espn ombudsman I guess. And it probably brings up a lot of questions as to how much sports journalism has to do with journalism as to most other things…
But it was on my mind.
harold says
I think I read it here somewhere but why was the MVP thing given to writers?
They should be able to determine who gets on the ballot, not determine who wins. It would mean much more if they let the players and maybe coaches vote, while not allowing them to vote for their own teammate.
The fact that the writers come up with the candidates will prevent this from being a total popularity contest, and even if it does turn into one, that would be a MUCH better role model (getting along with your colleagues) than some iffy nebulous sorry excuse writers come up with to support whichever star they’ve vested interested in.
harold says
oh, and while i’m at it… read this from espn (i think it’s the ap feed)
“James banged his right pinkie on the rim on a dunk attempt midway through the first quarter and had it examined during the ensuing timeout, but it barely slowed him.”
actually, i guess it’s the media’s job to make the race seem more interesting, but the feed after the Knicks game really is funny if you look at it from the Kobe vs. LeBron contest. They’re really working hard to make it as such, and probably to sell the NBA. Can’t find the next MJ, so let’s look for the next rivalry…
Daniel Sagal says
In case it hasn’t been stressed enough already, DEFENSE WINS!!!
chocomm says
man, LBJ with 50pts, 10asts, 8 rebs tonight at the MSG.
He’s surely not gonna go quietly in the two-horse race for the MVP, for sure.
I think given that Bynum and Ariza come back, we still would have a tough time beating the Spurs in a 7-game series. We are relatively inexperienced, while the core trio of Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili have 3 rings won together. That experience will mean something.
Also, the move to sign Kurt Thomas was brilliant b/c he is a very very good defender who can guard either Pau or Bynum. It would be a great series no doubt, but I’m guessing our year will be next year.
1331 says
well…it’s really becoming a media hype
lebron vs kobe
for me, what really matter is the world championship.
maybe i am being utterly negligence by saying, horry is a “better” player than kobe, because he has won more championships (with three different teams – multiple times for each)
so MVP is just an award…the number of rings you have is what matter the most
justmy2cents
DMo says
Off subject a bit, but…
Man, the Suns are really in trouble. They gave up 126 points to Denver tonight and lost by a bunch. It’s hard to imagine that the Suns could lose a game against a struggling team in which they shot well over 50% and Shaq gave them 18 boards, but they managed it. Their defense has gone from sub-par to pathetic without Marion. They will be lucky to earn the 7th seed at this rate. Personally, i would love it if the Lakers met them in the first round. It would be better than drawing a team like Dallas, and only marginally more difficult than facing Golden State. Plus, it would be the ultimate payback to see D’Antoni and his gang “busted” in the first round (to borrow his term for what they have done to L.A. the last two years).
Warren Wee Lim says
Kurt, from the last post you talked about Petrie and the Maloofs…
I fully agree with you that Geoff Petrie is one heck of a GM that could not fully stretch his wings because of not one but two owners who are actively participating in the deals that are being made. I still remember that rumors that swired around middle of last year when Petrie reportedly wanted to send Bibby to the Lakers but the Magoofs (no typo error) nixed the deal. So is any deal regarding Artest… he is going away for nothing before he will be traded to LA.
That said, from the start of last season, the collective unconscious of Laker fans have secretly murdered Mitch Kupchak saying he cannot broker a deal even if it was offered to him on a silver platter. Much like that funny kid from American Pie who could not make the most out of a “happy” chic in his room all naked.
This year, when the errors have become clearly evident and glaring, Mitch did the impossible by transforming the crappiest Laker team in recent history into a contender with the wave of his hand. Makes you wonder if Buss himself made these deals but that Ariza deal was simply magic IMO.
In light of this, I would like to cite some “other” goods that the Ariza deal brings to the Lakers aside from his perimeter defense that we sorely miss nowadays:
1. The Lakers acquired a DPE (disabled player exception) from the Magic who was willing to use it to add another big warm body who can shoot list. Before you know it, the Lakers complaining about Brian Freakin Cook is over. I tell you, his 3.5m over 3 yrs won’t be missed by a beat.
2. Mo Evans expiring contract and sometimes cold threes was translated into an athletic and very young Trevor Ariza who was the 3rd three in the Orlando roster anyway. Mo was gonna be hunting for his contract but we all knew he was gonna take full time at the 2 this year. For starters, Stu Lantz won’t be able to conceptualize “the machine”. Ha! Then, you replace 2 redundancies in Cook and Evans by adding someone you currently do not have – yes that perimeter defender that was quick and tall enough whom you could ask to cover Nash.
3. LA cuts salary. From Mo’s 1.7 exp + Cookie’s 3.5 3yrs, Mitch got Trevor’s 2.7 2yrs. This one is bigger than we all realize. From being roughly 3m above the lux tax line, LA cut some 2m form the payroll (5m if you count the taxes) to be a step closer to getting down the tax line.
By being this low, its now time to explore the Pau-ssibilities…
drrayeye says
Let’s consider MVP-ISM as a degenerative basketball disease. It starts with a massive dose of ego and desire and some unique talent. The non statistical skills, like setting picks, team defense, choosing position over steals, selectively taking fouls, limiting minutes to remain consistent, deflections, getting back on defense, plays leading to turnovers, and others are deemphasized, so that the “statistical skills” (points, rebounds, and assists) can be cultivated. TEAM is a four letter word–’nuff said?
As years go by, selfishness sets in to further stunt growth. The player loafs on defense to “rest,”and demands the ball. Unselfish players set him up, others switch to cover up for him–especially to cover his man when his showboating doesn’t make that steal, get rebounds for him, set picks for him, set him up with passes, give him dunks. He actually begins to believe that he is doing all of this by himself! He earns more money than most of his teammates all taken together. He’s the only guy recognized in public.
This strategy must pay off early in a player’s career with an actual MVP, or the MVP-ISM disease will eventually take the player out of basketball altogether. If the player ends up on a team that has enough quality players and organization to win or contend for a championship, he may win the MVP in the process. Contending for and winning a championship is the antidote for MVP-ISM, and ultimately can lead to actual MVP awards to truly great team basketball players.
However, a truly great player sees how much MVP-ISM harms the sport of basketball, and leads away from the right kind of championship. He turns his back on such individualist hype, gains the deep love and respect of his teammates, and will remembered long after MVP awards are given out–whether he got one or not. He’s immune to the disease. Sometimes the sports writers notice him and give him the MVP that he deserves–often, they hardly knew that he plays basketball at all–unless he had the disease at one time or another earlier in his career.
MVP-ISM is a cancer on the sport of basketball.
kwame a. says
Another game, another 125 points given up by the Suns. I’m telling you, what was Kerr thinking by fielding a lineup with 3 of the worst defenders in the NBA at their respective positions (Center-Shaq, Guard-Nash and Forward-Amare). I’m not quite sure why there is confusion over why they are losing, they give up an astronomical amount of points every game.
81 Witness says
According to Sac Town royalty, Martin fell out of bounds at the end of the third quarter and landed on his wrist against the Lakers. This stopped him in the fourth quarter. This stopped him from playing against the clippers last night. It may have stopped a King victory on Tuesday night…
Kurt says
31. But remember how Shaq was going to help their interior defense?
So far, that move has turned out worse than I thought it would, and I didn’t think it would be good. Something that wasn’t discussed much at the time — the trade exposed the Suns lack of depth. They always had a short bench, but now no Banks to spell Nash for a few, and Shaq can’t play more than 30 per game. They used to count on the starters to blow teams out of the water and the bench just not to lose it. Now, the starters play such bad defense they don’t pull away, and last night the Nuggets took over against the subs of the Suns and never let up.
They really might not make the playoffs, and I never thought that would happen.
Tim says
Can’t expect Kobe to play lockdown defense for 40+ minutes and also be the offensive leader all game. He has to pick his spots and get help. The Lakers have their second best defensive wing and their shot blocker/ best rebounder on the IL.
When Ariza and Bynum return the Laker defense will be much improved. Until then the Lakers will have matchup problems outside and be vulnerable in the paint. Their ability to outscore most opponents minimizes the defensive flaws, but when their outside shooters aren’t on, and Kobe has an off-night they can have a tough time against anybody .
As for the Queens at home this year, they have wins against most of the top teams in the NBA. While the Laker win in cow town might have looked ugly, there are only numbers, no pictures, in the won/ lost standings, and this one goes in there as a ‘W’.
kwame a. says
33-Another fun thing about this trade. It exposes Nash in the worst way. Nash is not effective in a half-court set, one of the reasons Cuban was more than willing to let him walk. Marion covered for him on D and also helped cover for Amare. I would’ve traded Amare and Barbosa for KG when they allegedly had the chance. KG/Hill/Marion/Bell/Nash woulda been a helluva lot better.
jaaason says
Everyone…
Would this team be better today had LeBron switched places with Kobe 2 years ago? (I say 2 years ago to assume the team had time to grow together and get to the point where Kobe and the Lakers are now.)
Craig W. says
If Shaq’s last stop would be one where he destroyed the franchise that will also build into his legacy. Tie that together with the decline and fall of the Heat and you have to give Jerry Buss/Mitch Kupchak kudos for trading Shaq when they did.
reed says
Detroit is an exception to the “superstar rule,” but they also tend to prove it. The last 2 years, they lost to clearly inferior teams in the conference finals (miami, cleveland) because they could not counter the dominance and will of a superstar (wade, lebron). Teams without true superstars almost always come apart at some point in the playoffs because they have no one to turn to and believe in when things get tense – the other team takes you out of your offense and you need crunch time baskets, on the road and the crowd needs to be quieted, the other team’s star needs to be shut down, etc. There is always a point where a title team has to or is forced to scrap everything and ride the talents and will of their leader during a critical stretch – a duncan, shaq, wade, kobe, jordan, bird, isiah, magic, olajuwon, lebron. Dirk’s inability to match wade and be that guy in that moment cost dallas a title when they were the much better team. The same has happened to detroit repeatedly. I wonder if the same will happen to portland in the future. Or boston this year when lebron starts to excert his will – can kg counter? Boston and detroit are terrified of cleveland, and rightly so, despite the relative garbage lebron is surrounded with.
As much as we love the team aspects of the game, it is still the one sport driven by dominant individuals – where one can and often does beat five. That is the biggest, and perhaps sole, reason I have hope if we face the spurs, pistons, or celtics in the playoffs. They match our talent and trump our experience and chemistry – but can they counter the will of kobe?
kwame a. says
Reed-Great point about Boston. My main problem with KG is that in 4th quarter, close game, what is his move. His only consistent weapon is that mid-range shot of his. It’s a good shot, but in the 4th, you want high percentage shots. That’s why I even like Pau over KG offensivley at least, he can get layups and close shots. So can LBJ, he’s the only guy in the leauge that gets buzzer-beater layups/dunks.
chocomm says
kwame a. –
I respect nearly everything you’ve contributed to this site, but to say that you like Pau over KG in the clutch is just ridiculous. KG is not in the same level as LBJ or Kobe in the clutch, but he’s much better than Pau.
Kurt says
Totally off topic, but I have to link to this. Kevin at Clippersblog does the best breakdowns of plays on the Web. I envy his skill.
http://clipperblog.com/index.php?itemid=526
Kurt says
40. In clutch time (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left,
neither team ahead by more than 5 points) here are the stats for this season:
Kobe shooting 49.3% (eFG%), scoring 53 points per 48 minutes average.
KG shooting 50% scoring 23.5 per 48.
LeBron shooting 53.4% scoring 59.3 per 48.
Travis Y. says
37- Craig W.
I agree with you to an extent, b/c if you think about it Miami still won a championship by using Shaq as the Big Decoy. There are so many teams that have never won a championship and would sacrifice 10 yrs of irrelevance to get it.
I think we gave Shaq up a year or two too soon. Why didn’t Buss not give it another one or two year window and tell Shaq and Kobe to shut up? I guess the rift just had to be resolved kind of like the one in Phoenix…
So yes, it was a smart look into the future to know firsthand that with Shaq’s conditioning and drive that he was beginning his decline. We’d have been lucky to win one more championship with him possibly two and that’s only if the alpha dog issue was settled. Purely speculatative, but it’s been proven that Shaq is declining so point to Buss and Kupchak.
reed says
42. Does 82games list true shooting % in “clutch time”? It seems like Kobe gets an awful lot of his points on free throws, so I wonder if that would push him to being a more efficient crunch time scorer than Lebron. Both Kobe and Lebron scoring more than a point per minute with efficient %’s when the whole defense is focused on them is incredible.
Kurt says
43. No, they don’t use that stat (for whatever reason). But, to help you out:
Kobe draws fouls on 14.8%his shots in clutch time, averaging out to 19.8 free throws per 48. He shoots 81.1% on those FTAs.
LeBron draws fouls on 15.2% of his shots, working out to 19.3 per 48. He shoots 79.3% on those FTAs.
So they both get to the line an insane amount with the game on the line.
reed says
Lebron has become a true closer — on par with Kobe.
It will be frightening when he is surrounded by the right teammates. Still, given the defense of his supporting cast now, I think Detroit or Boston only have a 50/50 shot of beating him in a series.
J.D. Hastings says
Interesting that Kobe’s FT% goes down in clutch time while LBJ’s goes up. I love Kobe, but you can’t slight LBJ. The two shouldn’t even be compared because James is so much bigger and stronger. He doesn’t need Kobe’s footwork to get to the rim. Imagine what he’ll become if he shows Kobe’s knack to study and grow as a player. We should be excited to watch, but MVP homerism makes people dislike other players just because other people think they’re good.
The MVP race is a lot like the democratic primaries. Except with nothing but superdelegates.
Craig W. says
Travis Y.,
The problem with keeping Shaq was that Kobe would have left. Besides, the two salaries and the decreasing quality of the role players pointed to declining team performance and no additional titles – even if the two had remained.
Craig W. says
One aspect of the Lebron – Kobe debate is that Lebron is so much younger and is just developing. I think there is really no question that Lebron could pass Kobe all-time if he has the dedication Kobe does to his craft. The one caveat is what Lebron does with his success. Will he follow Kobe’s path and work hard to improve at least one aspect of his game each year or will he follow Shaq’s path and continue to rely on only his natural physical abilities and personality. His game is so physical that injury becomes an increasing problem with age and I would hate to see him follow Dwayne Wade’s path.
kwame a. says
Chocomm-ha, I probably overstated my point, but I guess I was just trying to say KG isn’t the guy I want to go to in the 4th quarter of a close game. I like KG, but I just think he needs someone else to close for him.
Goo says
The only reason I want Kobe to win MVP is because of all the reasons the media has said he didn’t deserve it year after year…
In 2002-03 (I think this was the year) when Shaq went down and Kobe had all those 40 point games in a month, the reasoning was “Yeah, but you have Shaq so you can’t win MVP”.
In 2005-06 when scored 81 points, avg’d 35.4 ppg and carried a team that had Smush Parker, Kwame Brown, and Luke Walton into the playoffs and a rebound away from the second round when most columnists said they were destined for the lottery, it became “Yeah, but your team didn’t win enough, so you can’t win MVP”.
And now this year, top seed in the west (when again, people thought they could miss the playoffs), and probably playing the best team ball he ever has as a player, the reasoning is “Yeah, but your stats aren’t as good as Lebron’s”
Laker Glory says
Wow….kinda quiet today…..
Lebron and Kobe are just animals. Lebron is more of a physical specimen, Kobe a more complete player skill wise. I think the NBA is just dying for these two to meet in the Finals…..or for the Lakers to meet the Celtics. To agree with old Colin Cowherd, the NBA just matters more when the Lakers are competing for championships.
Question. I’m just throwing this out there to see what you guys think.::::: Lets say Kobe plays for about 7 more seasons, wins 3 more titles, 2 MVP’s and 2 more scoring titles (very optimistic i know, but not impossible by any means). Where does he rank among the all time greats? Top 10 to ever lace em up? Top 5 maybe?
just curious on this day of boredom…..
Craig W. says
With each successive generation it gets harder to pick out the greatest, or even the 5/10 greatest. I have seen several generations of players and I find it extremely difficult to pick the best. I can name the most dominant, the best scorer, the best playmaker, the best defender, but to combine all the specialties into one amalgamated player is impossible to me. For someone who hasn’t seen the 60’s or 70’s or 80’s players I just don’t know how they can evaluate.
Statistics seem to be a beat all-end all solution for some, but you really have to see these people play over a period of time to recognize their contribution to 1) their team and 2) their sport.
alex v. says
Bill Simmons has an all-NBA article up on ESPN. He only talks about Boston to rag on Doc Rivers, so it’s pretty readable.
In the opening paragraphs, he makes the point that Bynum may come back, but might not be as effective as people expect. His thinking is that Bynum’s injury rehab mostly requires rest, which means he’ll be out of shape. (He doesn’t say it, but I think we all remember that tired Drew = fouling Drew.) He also makes some other observations about the Lakers which make it clear he’s been watching the Lakers a lot (not that you can blame him).
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080305
JONESONTHENBA says
Kwame A: The Celtics have Paul Pierce, so they will be fine closing out games. Remember how good he was doing this the last time the Celtics were a good team in 2002? He absolutely killed in the playoffs that year.
jack says
“In clutch time (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left,
neither team ahead by more than 5 points) here are the stats for this season:
Kobe shooting 49.3% (eFG%), scoring 53 points per 48 minutes average.
KG shooting 50% scoring 23.5 per 48.
LeBron shooting 53.4% scoring 59.3 per 48”
Pretty interesting stuff. Really shows how much of a killer instinct LeBron’s developed.
The one thing I kinda don’t like about this stat is that clutch time isn’t just the last few minutes of a game.
Say you’re down 6 points in the 3rd quarter and you make a rally to even the score or take the lead. That’s pretty clutch to me. Or if you have a double digit lead, but the other team goes on a run and you need that one dagger basket to kill their momentum. I’d say that’s clutch as well. And what about other stats, like steals/TOs/rebounds, etc.?
Be interesting to see if all that stuff could be factored in. Although, the effort involved would probably make it impossible.
Bandwagon L.A. says
56.
“And what about other stats, like steals/TOs/rebounds, etc.?”
I think that’s an important observation that clutch shouldn’t necessarily mean scoring.
Like Kobe’s rebound on Lamar’s missed FT toward the end of the Dallas game?
Or, remember last year, that block Kobe had against Utah. Deron WIlliams had a breakaway late in the game that would have put the game away and Kobe came streaking down the court to block it.
I embedded the video of it in my blog at the time:
http://bandwagonla.blogspot.com/2007/01/very-close.html
(at the bottom of the post)
kwame a. says
55-I like Paul Pierce (even though he shoulda went to SC or UCLA) but i think he will have a tough time against either Lebron or Prince. I do think that Pierce, combined with Allen, is enough offense late in the game because Boston plays such great defense.
harold says
clutch can be many things, and defense (anyone remember that steal by Jordan on Malone?) is definately part of it.
but above all, clutch is not a defined time period – it has to lead to a W. 2 seconds to go, 4 points down, your guy hits a buzzer beating 3 to make it a 1 pt game but loses… clutch? think not.
so clutch begins from the moment the team is down and lasts until they come out on top. if the team does not come up on top, no clutch.
jack says
Pretty good way of putting it Harold.
I think being able to keep a lead is pretty clutch too. Like say you’re up 3, but they score 2 and then you respond with a 2 of your own to keep it a 1/2 possession game.
Warren Wee Lim says
As much as we love the team aspects of the game, it is still the one sport driven by dominant individuals – where one can and often does beat five. That is the biggest, and perhaps sole, reason I have hope if we face the spurs, pistons, or celtics in the playoffs. They match our talent and trump our experience and chemistry – but can they counter the will of kobe?
Reed, I like the part where you mention Kobe’s will wielding over the opponents. This is why I am fearing the Spurs more than any other team in the NBA more than Boston, Detroit or Cleveland. I think San Antone has the 3 basic requirements to win the chip: a) Superstar complex and clutch play in Duncan b) Team-oriented offense all throughout 48 mins c) Contagious Naughty Defense. And they have tons of experience in their belts.
To some extent, Utah does these things as well. Their true superstar is Deron Williams and that alone is one aspect where we need someone like Trevor Ariza to come back. Even Trevor will have his hands full and Kobe would have to cover.
So cheer for Utah to climb to 3 while root for San Antone to keep winning and stay at #2. New Orleans would probably hold on to #4 on this scenario and that would be the perfect scenario for the Lakers.
1 LA vs 8 Golden State or Denver
4 New Orleans vs 5 Phoenix (seriously)
2 San Antonio vs 7 Dallas
3 Utah vs 6 Houston
LA has Golden State’s number and we swept the Nuggets 3-0 in our season series. No upsets expected here and we cruise into round 2.
NOH can beat Phoenix as evidenced by a 4-0 season sweep this year. Sprinkle in a little homecourt advantage and the Suns are toast. NOH in 5.
San Antonio and Dallas will be the most interesting matchup. I think San Antonio beats them in 6 or 7 but it will be a hard-fought one and I won’t be too surprised if Dallas themselves pulled an upset. They match up well against the Spurs.
Utah is simply the better team against Houston. With or without Yao, Utah wins in 5 or 6.
Round 2
1 Lakers vs 4 New Orleans
2 San Antonio / 7 Dallas vs 3 Utah
I think the Hornets and Lakers will be an interesting matchup but Kobe will see blood on this one. I don’t think his pride allows New Orleans to beat them in the semis and here is where you could see Kobe explode for 40 a game.
IF San Antonio gets through Dallas, I see them beating Utah in 6 or 7. But like the same scenario, coming from a rather long series, Utah has an equal chance to beat them in 6 or 7.
IF Dallas wins it, expect another toss-up in terms of chances against Uath.
Therefore, if my predictions hold out, the Lakers can cruise to the WCF with relative ease and expect Utah, San Antone or Dallas to be there. But we will be the one waiting for them and it will be ours to lose. Rather optimistic but really possible.
Stephen says
Reed,you are right about the undefineable value of a superstar. But he has to be part of a talented team. Otherwise…Detroit a few yrs ago triumphed over Kobe’s will,and San Antonio last yr triumphed over LeBron’s.
Craig W. says
At the beginning of the year I thought next year would be our year. Our improvement surpassed my expectations, but (with our injuries) we still will have a tough road with San Antonio in particular and I wouldn’t be too disappointed if we lost. Practice playing under playoff pressure and officiating is our biggest need and this WC race is helping us with that. I think NO is in much the same place as we are and Paul is a potential superstar. Our advantage there is that our superstar has been there.
I think we are getting ahead of ourselves in talking about the NBA finals just yet.
Reed says
San Antonio is especially difficult in a playoff series because they not only have the talent, chemistry, coaching, etc., but two players with superstar talent and willpower. Despite his relaxed demeanor, Duncan is one of the top 10 players ever and as big a big game player as I’ve ever seen. He’s not necessarily the game winning shot type of superstar, but he takes over every aspect of big games. In addition to him, I really consider Ginobili a superstar when Popovich unleashes him in full force — as he does in the playoffs. I would take him over any wing but Kobe or Lebron in a playoff series or critical 4th quarter — over Pierce, McGrady, Melo, etc. He is fearless and can impose his will on a game almost to the same degree as Kobe. He often takes over decisive games with Kobe-like scoring binges. With two superstars focused on dominating games in different ways, and Parker doing all the great things he does, the Spurs are a flawless team. I don’t think we’re to the point yet where Andrew or Pau can combine their incredible talents with that kind of focused will and impact a game to the degree of Duncan or Ginobili (Odom certainly can’t). Hopefully they learn how to raise their game to new levels in a few tough playoff series this year and Kobe’s leadership is enough to drive us through.
Stephen says
How wild is the West? The Lakers are on a 13-2 run and they’re not even the second hottest team in the West. The Spurs are on a 11-0 run and they’re not even the hottest.
This is shaping up to be a season basketball fans will be talking about for years to come. We’re looking at epic collapses,stirring runs,huge trades w/major impacts,some team stumbling into Playoffs just might regroup and the possibility of great First and Second Rd matchups.
Darius says
Reed,
Amen on Ginobili. That guy is a monster. Not only does he have the game, but he also is one of those guys that seems to bother the other players. Just the way he plays tight defense and then takes a cheap charge (that’s not a knock, either. Fisher does pulls the same stuff) and his herky jerky style…it really seems to get under some guys’ skin. And he just keeps attacking…he really is a rare talent.
You also touched on what I think is our biggest question mark…the seasoning of our big men. They have to believe that they are on par with Duncan. Can they do it? I think they can, but even Kobe is saying that the team needs to believe right now. If we can get to the point where we face the Spurs, it would probably be in the WCF and by that point I think the team will have the confidence and poise to deal with the pressures of that type of environment and be effective in “the moment”, so to speak. We all know Kobe will be there, we need the other guys to join him.
Warren Wee Lim says
Craig, it won’t be a cakewalk but the WCF is no pipe dream. At least when your Laker team was not expected to rack up 50 wins but is now on pace to win 60.
The Lakers are a young team. That helps during the season but that is a minor drawback come playoff time when the youngs need their share of mistakes to “grow” and “learn” the ways of the world. However, in the scenario I presented, I could not see us losing to an unstable Golden State team and an even younger (with ZERO playoff experience ‘cept for Peja) New Orleans.
If you come to think of it, the Lakers have 21 games left, with 10 of them coming from teams “expected” to be in the playoffs, with 11 of them as very winnable. I tried to give them an 85% chance of winning the remaining home games and some 65% chance of winning the remaining roads. This is a very conservative estimate and therefore it leads me to conclude they will win 16 more games and losing some 5 more before the playoffs kick in. That’s a total of 59-23 in my book and I certainly hope they prove me wrong by winning 1 more to hit 60.
The Spurs have a tougher schedule ahead. After beating Indy tonight, they have 22 games left with 12 of them against teams “expected” to be in the playoffs with 2 more from Denver. They play 10 home games and 12 road games. Of the home games, they need to face against Denver, Boston, Houston, Golden State and Utah. Of the remaining road games, Denver, Phoenix, New Orleans, Detroit, Dallas, Orlando, Utah and LA.
I suggest you do the math but I think my calculations will have LA at #1 and SA at #2. The questionable part is how Utah climbs to #3 and NOH drops to #4.
harold says
we throw the word inexperienced around as if it’s given, but like Warren mentioned, 10 of the games down the road are against possible PO bound teams.
that, given the state of the Mavs game we were in, will give them enough experience.
now will that be enough for Bynum and Ariza? or will they even be back before the PO? that will be the main question.
but you know what? the attitude Kobe is carrying this season, it makes me believe. or rather, dream. he seems to genuinely believe (which i guess he always did to a certain extent), and it shows.
Laker Glory says
Wow…..Dallas got dismantled in the second half at home last night. Dallas is fading in my eyes along with Phoenix. And Houston, they are really playing a good brand of basketball….running at times, excellent passing and allot of hustle. & T-Mac…..that guy is a tad underated. Barkley kept insisting that Dallas would win that game even at half time, and had some negative comments about T-Mac and his supposed lack of leadership and ability to make other players better. I totally disagree…i think T-Mac is very underated as a leader and is capable of making other players better or carrying a team on his shoulders when he’s not injured. T-Mac is not getting the love he deserves right now for playing some good basketball.
Houston is playing like an injured animal……dangerous!!!
exhelodrvr says
Craig W,
The only way to compare players of different generations is to look at how they did compared to their peers, and then look at who had the greatest “peer differentlal”.
Craig W. says
exhelodrvr,
By your measure (statistically good, but still hard to compare between generations because of relative talent and rules) I think Bill Russell comes out the biggest winner – all time – and Wilt Chamberlain the most dominant player – all time. It is hard to imagine two individuals who have distanced themselves from their competition by a greater distance.
Bill Bridges says
I love the podcast of Bill Simmons when he had Bill Walton on. If you haven’t heard it, it is a classic. They were arguing about which era had the best players. Walton was arguing that the 70’s players could play with the best of the 80’s. Simmons was incredulous. How could the unathletic 70’s players hang with Magic, MJ, Bird, Hakeem, etc…. Walton says. “Well, for one thing, they’d be like 8 years old!”
Classic
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2864045
scroll down to november…
Bill Bridges says
oh also. if you haven’t seen this piece by Mike Sager on Phil Jackson…
http://men.msn.com/articlees.aspx?cp-documentid=6273615
“What I Learned”
kwame a. says
71-although the peer group russell faced is nothing like the peer groups of future era’s, where year-round training, speciality coaches and more people are playing than ever before factor in to make it much more competitive.
I didn’t see Russell play, but I get the (probably wrong)impression that his only other 7’0 peer was Wilt, whereas for instance Shaq had Olajuawon, Robinson, Ewing and even Smits, Vlade, Alonzo, etc. I just think the competition and skill levels have kept increasing that has resulted in a much deeper pool of talent.
Gatinho says
If you haven’t seen the excerpt from Ross Siler on true Hoop this AM, it’s a big reason why I can’t pay attention to the MVP award:
“The one thing that gives me pause would be voting for somebody who made as vocal a trade demand as Bryant did last summer, one that threatened to destroy his team. There’s no disputing what Bryant has done this season, but as recently as training camp there were questions about whether he cleaned out his locker in protest. I’m leaning toward James right now, especially given the two games he had against the Jazz.”
Why doesn’t the NBA give these guys a more clearly defined set of criteria? I know, it causes more discussion and passion among fans, but does it devalue the award?
Gatinho says
Kwame and ex,
I remember reading this, but have never been able to find the source again. In Russell and Wilt’s era the average height of players was around 6′ 2″. Today the average is closer to 6′ 6″. Not to scoff at the achievements of those guys, but they truly were men among boys. They dominated a game that at that point was still mostly set shooters and speedy floor bound players. I think that those things definitely have to be considered but can’t really be quantified.
Craig W. says
Let’s see now – Nate Thurmond – he could bang with anyone, even Shaq today; Bob Lanier – another pretty tough dude, of course Wilt literally picked him up (265lbs) and moved him physically off the floor once. Players were not at tall (6’2″ is a bit short though) and not as agile, but they sure were a lot tougher – Rodman would really have taken as much as he gave out. However, the point of the comment was measurement of great players via vie the peer group they played with. As I have said before, if you didn’t see these people actually play in a number of games you really can’t properly judge their effectiveness. Sure Baylor was only 6’5″, but Barkley was only 6’4″ so don’t judge the effectiveness of a player only by his height. Bill Russell was 6’9″.
Craig W. says
P.S. Wilt Chamberlain was never really measured, but is estimated to be around 7’4″, not the 7’2 and 1/2″ noted in the record books. As he said, nobody roots for Golaith, so why try to be taller.
J.D. Hastings says
This is a complete nonsequiter (I think 65% of my posts in here are), but looking at Defensive efficiency, it occurs to me that you have to consider that number right along side defensive rebound rate and turnover rate in order for it to be meaningful.
I was thinking about this because I keep hearing Denver is terrible defensively, though people like Kelly Dwyer have been pointing out they have a very good defensive efficiency rating. They argue that Denver’s pace hides their defensive prowess. That’s wrong though.
“Pace Factor is the number of possessions a team uses per game.” The number of possessions Denver uses isn’t the issue. The issue is how many possessions their opponents use. Because possessions are equalized at 100 in defensive efficiency, having a possession differential could make all the difference. If Denver gives their opponents a lot more possessions, their defense would give up more points.
How a team rebounds and how it takes care of the ball determines possessions. Sure enough, while denver is average in giving up turnovers and offesnive rebounding, they are 25th in defensive rebounding. Therefore they give up more points than their defensive efficiency would suggest. I think Hollinger should create a defensive pace rate to include alongside his normal offensive Pace rate. That will avoid confusion of this sort.
kwame a. says
Craig-I agree, I don’t want to sound like I’m marginalizing what Wilt and Russell achieved, all I’m saying is that the talent pool today is deeper, so like you said, it’s hard to compare players from different eras/
Kurt says
79. Denver’s defensive stats are a little odd because they can play good team defense, but only do it in spots. Much like the offense on this team, lots of individual but very little team. The up and down defense ends up looking better in the stats than reality.
carter blanchard says
Just wanted to come by these parts to gripe a little about Lawrence Hill’s incredibly clean block last night. I know your philosophy Kurt that games aren’t won or lost on the final shot alone, but that doesn’t make me any less bitter about the fact that Stanford was seconds away from a huge road win, a share of the Pac10 title, and clinching a 2-seed, only to see it all fall apart (in large part) thanks to a phantom call. It was a great game all around, and UCLA was certainly terrific in the second half (especially Collison), but this one hurts more than normal, particularly after Stanford did such a good job responding to each of UCLA’s many second half runs and coming up with big stops when needed (including on what should have been the final play)
Kurt says
82. That was a tough call.
And man, I like Brook Lopez even more after that game.
Craig W. says
The thing about Russell and Wilt is that they were so far out front of their era in defense (Russell) and offense & rebounding (Wilt) that when you measure them within their era they were far more outstanding than any of the modern players. Perhaps only Magic comes close to these two in rising above the crowd. We can argue about the quality of the crowd till the cows come home, but these are the real standouts.
J.D. Hastings says
Denver is maybe the best current example, but I was thinking in general that by removing possessions from the equation, the efficency stats miss an important dimension. If your Offensive and Defensive ratings are both 100, but you use 99 possessions and give 101 possessions, you’re going to average a -2 point differential overall. I’m just interested to see these numbers spelled out.
Ultimately the efficiency ratings are more important (since most of the leaders in those categories are the best teams), but possession differential is also important as a way to help quantify whether a team is regularly losing because of how often they turn the ball over (versus forcing turnovers) or give up offensive rebounds (versus getting their own ORebs).
Anyways, ultimately the specifics you bring up are probably more important, but this would be just one more thing to spend time analyzing during slow days at the office…
Kurt says
Clippers preview finally up. Sorry it’s late and short. Day job kicking my ass.
Kurt says
J.D., I remember somebody writing (at APBR, I think) about trying to put together sort of a “standard deviation” type number for each time off of their O/D rating. That kind of thing would be interesting, Not sure if it has been done.
But I think your point about, basically, taking care of the ball is a very good one.