After an exciting but disappointing weekend (outside of getting to spend time with Mom) it seems like a good day to take a step back from the analysis and just talk about a couple of interesting issues around the Association.
One came in an email from Mike, a regular reader of this site, but he’s not the only person asking this question: Why is the home court advantage in these NBA playoffs so stark?
I think of the scene in Hoosiers when the little town team walks into the big-city gym and the first thing coach Norman Dale does is pull out a tape measure and show that the rim is still 10-feet high and the free-throw line is still 15 feet away. However, what we have in the NBA are not small-town kids, but rather seasoned players who (regardless of their NBA role and status) have played in front of big crowds for years, have been team stars and have played on big stages.
So, why do the Celtics fall apart on the road? The home team has won all the Western Conference semi-final games. In the Spurs/Hornets series, the home team has been blowing out the opponent. Why the big switch?
I really don’t have an answer, but a couple things may play into it. First, teams are more comfortable in their own gym with their own fans, and that leads to a more aggressive style of play (by that I mean going to the rim more, playing tougher defense). Also, I think for many years NBA referees have been influenced by loud crowds.
But to me, that does not explain all of the disparity. What are your thoughts on that?
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Second, Mike D’Antoni is now the head coach of the New York Knicks. I totally understand why he took the job — the $24 million helps, plus he really can’t do worse than the previous coach and could be heralded as a savior in the nation’s biggest market — but I wonder how this will play out for the Knicks.
The current Knicks stars are horribly suited for what D’Antoni likes to do. (Well, they are terribly suited for any style of play.) There are some young guns (Lee, Chandler) who can start to form a nucleus of young running players, but there needs to be a big weeding out process.
What should happen is a three-year plan to totally rebuild that roster into something that can compete, but will he be allowed to do that in NY? Are he and the new GM on the same page in terms of the style and type of team they are trying to build?
Plus, it will be interesting to see what happens with the Suns. Bring in a new coach with a slightly more rigid offense that puts the clamps on Nash? Try to win running with Shaq? I think that whole thing implodes within two years, and the shrapnel falls at the feet of the owner.
What are your thoughts?
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Finally, one suggested read — the ESPN expose of OJ Mayo and how he got funneled to an agent. As Henry said at True Hoop, to me this is interesting not because of Mayo or USC but because this is one of the first real journalistic breakdowns of a system we all know has existed for years for big-time college players.
And I don’t think there is an easy fix.
RHYbread says
I wonder if it’ll be OJ Mayo that will be castigated for accepting money (if he did), or will there be an examination of the system, and institutions, that tacitly allow it.
PJ says
Re: Home Court Adv
A ray of hope for us…despite losing the two games in Utah, the Lakers were not blown out like the teams in the other series.
But then again an L is an L.
My money is on Lakers in 6
inwit says
Role players are more aggressive and shoot better at home (see Cleveland and Alanta). The referees make it somewhat easier for the home team to be the aggressor. Still, with teams like the Lakers, New Orleans and Boston, it is somewhat suprising.
D’Antoni gives Knick fans something to get excited about for awhile, after the depressing disaster of the last few years. Clearly, Walsh must have given D’Antoni something to hope for in the realm of personnel, what I can’t imagine.
The Suns are interesting. I don’t buy the story that D’Antoni pushed for the Shaq. I think he saw the handwriting on the wall (and felt the internal ctiticism from Kerr) and knew that because they would not pay Marion long term there was no choice but to agree to the trade. Also because of Bynum, Oden, Yao and Chandler in the Western Conference, they needed more size. But D’Antoni said before the season that they came very close against the Spurs last year and major changes were not needed, and he loved their style of play. (And not only him …)
My opinion was, when the Shaq trade was made, that the Suns were aiming for next year and not this year. Why? Because, first, the team would need time to gell, and second, they would need to tinker with the role players as they need more 3 point shooting, amongst other things. So was D’Antoni getting blamed because Kerr and Sarver refused to take responsibility for their own actions, or was D’Antoni upset because his team was taken from him and the Big Albatross was put around his neck?
True, as you mention, what about Nash? His best years were under offensive-minded coaches (Nelson and D’Antoni). More defense and more Shaq means less Nash. I think next year is their last chance with this team. Can they strengthen it? Time will tell.
81 Witness says
1) It’s the real season (aka playoffs). Fans are a little more excited about these elimination games. Possibly why we are seeing so many home wins. Think of it as an NFL season: Limited games, the crowd making it hard for the offense to hear calls from the QB, plus the crowd cheers really loud too (don’t tell the Giants though).
2) Fortunately for Isiah (gulp), the team will have large, expiring contracts in the near future. Those should be used to get players who fit D’Antoni’s offense.
I think the new Suns GM will try and pull a Doc Rivers and focus on Defense first. With the make-up of that team, I am surprised they don’t run more zone with Amare and Shaq as the bookends. That could very well be a possibility. The Suns do not have problems on offense, so a zone D would be to their benefit.
3) This’ll be more like spygate. They will penalize Mayo and USC quickly, but not harshly and try and sweep this issue under the rug.
Chris J says
I’d love to write off the Suns, and for the short-term, I think they’ve missed their window.
The Shaq trade wasn’t smart not only for what it did to the team this season, but because the $40 million he’s owed over the next two seasons will be a huge albatross. Nash isn’t getting any younger, and their last good shot at a title went up in smoke when Horry took out Nash and the league offices took out Phoenix’s key players in the following suspension.
Looking beyond the next couple of seasons, I suspect the Suns will reload largely for the same reasons that franchise has always been able to stay in the mix: basketball aside, NBA players have demonstrated they love playing in certain markets, be it for the weather (Phoenix, Miami, Orlando); prestige (Lakers, Knicks, Bulls); or tax advantages (Florida = good, Toronto = bad). Phoenix has a lot to offer, lifestylewise, and it will always be a prominent location for free agents. Try golfing on a January off-day in Minnesota or Portland.
The Suns will rebuild, just as they did post-Barkley. But for the next three or four years, I don’t think they’ll be a threat to the Lakers in the same manner that Utah, New Orleans or Portland will challenge the purple and gold.
For exactly this reason, I scoffed at those reports that recently suggested D’Antoni would head to Toronto to reunite with Lil’ Collangelo. He’s too smart to think he could lure the players he’d need to Toronto, where the waether, cultural difference and taxes often drive off top U.S. players. No knock on Toronto; it’s just the reaction we hear too often from players is they’d rather not be there.
But in Chicago, or New York… those franchises made sense for Mike D. The weather’s not like Phoenix, but players typically want to play for the Knicks of Bulls, given the history, loyal fan bases, money opportunities and overall nature of those cities. I think he’ll turn the Knicks around before the Suns are relevant again, so long as Dolan doesn’t interfere too much.
Chris J says
Pardon my typos… weather and Knicks OR Bulls….
Karl says
I really think the Lakers don’t have much of a home court advantage since the Staples Center crowd is one of the least energetic compared to the rest of the league. The players might be more comfortable at home, but the crowd doesn’t really strike fear into or distract the opponents or referees.
lamont jackson says
I envy Jordan Farmar. That dude has some amazing seats to the game. And sometimes he even gets to wander onto the court to watch the action. Though, it was strange that the teams and the officials let him touch the ball during some possessions. You wouldn’t think they’d let spectators do that. And, speaking as a fan watching from home, I found it kind of distracting. He must have paid a lot of money for those tickets.
eyeGore says
Homecourt advantage is purely mental. But we are all human, and we can’t help but be affected by such aspects of life. More seasoned veterans will not be affected as much as young players. This year, match-ups are also playing a large part in the series’ developments (youth & athleticism of the Hawks took Celtics to 7 games, physical and home-court-loving Jazz coming back to even the series)
If anyone sees Farmar, please let him know the team could use him on the court?
Manny P says
I am deeply dissapointed in Farmar’s play. I can’t understand why he is the type of player that fades when the Lakers really need him to step up. It seems to me that when the Lakers are dominating, he does fine, but the moment you put him in a clutch spot he fades away. Not good for a guy who is looking to resign in the off-season.
Goo says
I know it’s taboo to say so but it honestly really comes down to refereeing when it comes to home/away disparity…I’ve watched almost every playoff game and the away teams, especially teams like the Celtics whose success is predicated on being physical, simply aren’t allowed to play physical defense on the road and end up consistently getting called for ticky tack fouls, where as the home team gets some ridiculous calls in their favor
It’s one thing for home court advantage to be manifested in the style of play the referee’s allow, I’m totally okay with a game at Staples being called much more tightly and a game at Utah to allow much more physicality..but this year it’s at the point where there is such a wide discrepancy of what constitutes a foul call from the home team to the away team (especially in the first 3 quarters, game tends to open up a bit in the 4th) that I’m not sure how any road team has won a game
Kurt says
Come on people, Farmar is in his second year in the NBA, next year he’d be a college senior. His game improved dramatically last year to this year. I agree that right now the Lakers need Sasha in more, but ease up on the guy. He’ll be fine over time.
Why is it Lakers fans need a whipping boy when things don’t go perfectly?
nomuskles says
“thanks jordy, those FB&G commenters were starting to hurt my feelings” ~luke walton
lakerade says
The NBA has never looked so much like the WWF (or WWE or whatever) than it has during these conference semifinals. Yes, it comes down to the players executing and all that, but when key players are benched because of quick foul trouble (Boozer in games 1 & 2, Fish in 3 & 4) on top of the suspect calls being made to control the game (as referenced by Goo in #11), what can you do besides just be happy that the Lakers are at least the Hulk Hogan (or whoever is the hero nowadays in that farce of a spectacle) in David Stern’s mind… then again, we have gotten Pistons-Spurs in the Finals before… fugly. It’ll be interesting to see how the type of fouls being called are changed once the Lakers are back home again. Further down the road, this trend makes Boston look fine again since they have homecourt throughout the playoffs and THAT knowledge of being allowed to play one’s “style” at home is seemingly the difference maker in too many games this postseason. All that being said, the Bling Dynasty Lakers were good enough to play 5 on 8, something that the current team needs to aspire to. They did have their chances, as simply as making FTs or more intricately, making some plays down the stretch. Still, it must be so frustrating for the players to sense all this scripting and be forced to play through it. Get ready, Jazz, all that pushing and grabbing is suddenly gonna be a foul again come Wednesday!
Kurt says
The days of the frozen lottery envelope may be gone, but what about this scenario: The Knicks and their new coach win the lottery (7.6% chance) then draft Rose first overall to run the show. That would be interesting.
Exick says
I wish people would lay off Farmar as well. It’s not a secret that he hasn’t been playing well but the scapegoating and talk of cutting or trading a 2nd year player because he has trouble playing against arguably the best point guard in the league is ridiculous. I said the same thing 2 years ago when Sasha was figuring out how to play in the NBA. Exercise some patience.
Incidentally, Farmar isn’t up for a contract this summer. The Lakers picked up his 3rd year option before the season started.
I don’t find myself too worried at this point. Losing two close ones in Utah is no fun, but considering how good the Jazz have been at home (38 regular season wins by an average of 17 points) fighting them down to the wire in both games instills a nice level of confidence in me.
carter blanchrd says
The home court thing has long fascinated me, but it seems more prominent than ever these playoffs. I understand all the possible reasons, but none of them seem like they should adequately account for just how big the discrepancy is. I buy that role players and youngins need the crowd behind them to get amped. Also, shooting is so much about rhythms that I could see how your typical routine and familiarity with the home court could help a few shots roll the right way (who doesn’t have an irrationally preferred rim at the park). All that said though, your defense shouldn’t fall to pieces just because you’re in a different town like it has been for Boston. That just doesn’t make sense to me. I’m partially convinced that to some extent this year’s ‘offs just has to be a freak coincidence.
dan reines says
re: farmer.
am i the only one who remembers that choker kobe bryant heaving up four straight airballs against the jazz? whatever became of him?
come on. give the kid some slack.
Craig W. says
To address D’Antoni’s prospects you have to go back to his coaching in Italy – There isn’t enough variety in his NBA background. He can coach a different style; he just prefers the run-an-gun. I suspect he will coach to his talent and spend his time evaluating who won’t fit into anything he does and lobby for trading out those parts.
Players really seem to like playing for him so I expect he will do better than the “talking heads” predict.
Phoenix has been taking the cheap route and falling apart ever since Sarvar bought the club. I doubt things are going to change now. Too bad for Steve Kerr.
Craig W. says
I am curious how people expect players to develop. Most of the time players do not go into completely new situations (deep into the playoffs) and succeed spectacularly. Most of the time they fail before they learn just how to succeed.
Farmar is only a 21yr old, 2nd year player. The reference to Sasha was fairly appropriate.
How about Pau, Lamar, Turiaf? None of these guys has ever played this type of team, under this type of pressure, and this type of officiating (it’s called playoff basketball).
Now that they have some good experience and also are back home, perhaps we may see some improvement. Let’s cheer for that instead of complaining about how they failed.
UCSBShaw says
18. I still remember that game vividly.
We do need to give Jordan some slack. He will keep getting better with time.
Quick thoughts on the game: Free throws? 14-25 56%, damn good from three, good from the field, but from the line?
The defining play for me was the Luke lay up attempt, that was swatted away. So lackadaisical, I couldn’t believe how weak he went up. I really want Airza back. He gives us things Radman and Luke don’t, athleticism, a slasher to the basket and defense. I would like to see more of Fish, Sasha and Kobe.
I like D’Antoni in New York it will give them something exciting to watch even if they end up losing 40 games next year. At least Curry and Randolph won’t worry about having to play defense. Is it me or does anyone else find it odd that Marbury got traded to NY then years later D’Antoni was forced out of Phoenix and ended up in NY.
81 Witness says
I think people have a right to be upset with Farmar.
One of the main reasons Sasha has success this year is because of his pesky defense. On defense he hustles and gets into his opponent’s head. On defense, the opposing player is already frustrated and chases the penetrator. This leaves “the machine” wide open on the perimeter. His peskiness plays into his game.
Jordan on defense, awful. So why are Williams’ numbers down against him? Jordan does not play the pick ‘n roll at all. Doesn’t switch defenders and whoever rolls out on Williams is forced to guard two players: Williams and the screener. This is how Turiaf gets into foul trouble quickly. I don’t see him communicating either. I’ve seen LO give him the evil eye on several occasions.
He needs to play more physical. He should learn from Sasha.
Farmar also refuses to block out against bigger players and relies solely on his leaping ability. Not met with much success in the NBA. At least try and back your opponent underneath the basket (you can’t get rebounds if you are boxed under the basket). Don’t know why more pros don’t do this as often.
Even on offense. He doesn’t hustle. Anybody else think he just goes through the motions without purpose? Just discouraging.
I think PJ had every right to call him out. As a UCLA and Laker fan, and an owner of his jersey, i am disappointed.
End rant…
Darius says
I was too disappointed to post about Sunday’s game, but I wanted to touch on some of Kurt’s thoughts….
*RE Home Court: I think it’s a combination off a bunch of little things that have already been mentioned. I think the home team is usually seen as more aggressive and *to the aggressor, go the calls*. I think your 3-10 players play much better at home (assuming your top 2 players are star types who really don’t care where a game is). I also think that in the playoffs, the better team usually has home court, so they win the first two, and then those next two games become *must win* for the other team, and they come out to a fired up crowd and play inspired ball in order to get wins. At least that’s how it’s seemingly worked out this year…
*RE D’Antoni: Now we’ll see what he’s got as a coach. That is a bad team. But, the cupboard is not bare. I know these pieces may not fit together perfectly, but there is some good talent there. I have a feeling that we’re gonna see a lot of Crawford/Randolph P&R while Lee plays the Marion role and Richardson slides right back into the role he had while he was in Phoenix. I expect to see Marbury dumped for a serviceable player and the draft pick to either be another guard who can run this system (like Rose) or a really good shooter to help stretch the defense.
*And I agree 100% with Kurt on us Lakers’ fans and our whipping boys. This year alone we had Odom, Luke, and now Farmar. Farmar is playing poorly, but he has been a key part of this team all season. He’s ran the 2nd unit as well as any of us could have hoped and he’s just having a tough time against Utah. I think it’s good that Phil is showing some confidence in him by using him in his normal way; I think Farmar is going to turn it around. Also, I think it’s a little unfair to compare Farmar to Sasha. Sasha is in his 4th year, Jordan is in his 2nd. Where was Sasha in his 2nd season? How much was he contributing? On the bench, that’s where. Nothing, is how much. Now, I do think that Sasha should get more burn in this series, if only because he matches up with Utah’s bigger guards better. He can chase Korver and has the size/length to give Deron something to think about on offense. But can’t we just stop trashing Farmar? We all know that he could be playing better, but we can’t change anything about that, and it’s not like he’s an awful player. Smush Parker was awful….Farmar is a professional having a bad series.
The Fanalyst says
It would seem a lot of us experienced some premature glory over the past few months, even as early as the first months of the season (though much more hesitant back then). After the way the last 3-4 years ended, I think most of us truly believed we were in for a long championship run and those feelings were cemented with clinching the top seed and KB MVP. Not another heartbreaking playoff exit, no, surely not this year. Well, we got our championship run (at least ongoing) and I hope we can avoid the latter.
I think it’s natural for people to have an internal backlash now. I think it’s OK for fans to feel a little discouraged and critical that the team, and some singled out characters, aren’t playing up to par when they should be at their best. That horrible feeling is caring. Right down to the bone. As long as the actual team isn’t discouraged, I think it’s healthy. Individual player bashing sucks, especially when way over the line, but the impulse is honest.
I watched the last few games like I had no idea who this team was. Remember the guys that had swagger, moved the ball so efficiently and tore up the net from all over the floor, all while Turiaf danced nearby? I sure as hell hope those guys find themselves again or I’m afraid this dire doomsday speak that’s being passed around might have to last until November.
That said, I believe this one is going seven. I’ll stick to that faith even if the Lakers drop Wednesday night. I think with their backs to the wall, these guys will find a way to win out. They’re just too good to let us down that way this year, right?
Danny says
RE: home court advantage.
three reasons: food, airports, and hotel beds
I think home court advantage has more to do with the rigors of travel than with anything having to do with playing in front of the other team’s crowd, per se. I remember once reading a quote by Steve Nash where he talked about flying into Oakland to play the warriors. They landed at midnight or something, and all they could find to eat was food from a 7-11. If you think about the placement of most arenas and the travel time that takes teams out after they finish night games, then much of the food that gets consumed on the road is junk. When you think about all the players (Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom alerts) who start out their careers with mom living at home, or who are married, you can imagine the different.
Ditto beds. Luke Walton is on the radio advertising some custom bed emporium, and it gets me to wondering. If you travel for work, you know that hotel beds (and pillows) are hit and miss. So this leads to a low grade fatigue, perhaps not so noticeable, but one that adds up to a lot of jumpers that bang off the front of the rim.
Finally, you have the stress of trying to get your weed through airport security. Even flying on charter planes doesn’t remove this issue.
If you think about it, the road should be an easier place to play. Fewer distractions (wives, agents, other business interests). But then, if you think about it, everybody should shoot 90% from the free throw line Much of playing at that level is concentration, and the thing that precludes concentration is fatigue. So I think part of the answer is to be found there.
That, and the refs.
J.D. Hastings says
My take on the D’Antoni hiring was that it’s a multi-year deal and neither side expects the moon next year. They’ll get some draft picks and Walsh will work to give D’antoni what he needs. All the second guessing of that deal seems to assume that all parties will commit sepuku if the Knicks continue to struggle next year. But the reality is, the new administration can blame Isiah for a long time.
LA BALL TALK says
The home court disparity has been ridiculous. I can discus this for hours but for now we just got to get back to staples and take care of business.
J.D. Hastings says
About Farmar: I’ve been harsh on him during games on here also, but I haven’t meant to use him as a whipping boy. I’ve just noticed he’s been awful. I in no way think he should be jettisoned from the team or berated for his play though. I just wonder what’s going on. He’s usually a very confident kid. In some ways I almost want him to get more time so he can play through this. He needs to learn how to react to frustration on both ends of the floor. React to adversity by playing more under control than by trying to make up for everything in a single play.
And yeah, Williams is killing him. Williams kills Chris Paul too. Farmar is still learning defense and even if he was an old pro at it, he might just be overmatched. He’s just got to learn to deal with that.
harold says
I think once a player said something to the effect of, “I know everyone that come to see the game at home.” Courtside seats, season ticket holders… for a vet, at least, it must feel like family attending to cheer you on.
Also, in pro sports, players have all sorts of little rituals they go through to get themselves relaxed and in rhythm. Haven’t heard as many unreally dirty stories like those in baseball, but i’m sure basketball players have their share of those things, some things that may just work far better at home.
On top of that is that this is a pro-league, meaning that it’s a JOB. No matter how ‘big’ the game is, I think it loses some of its luster after a while, and it’s easy to just mail it in, or at least lose focus a bit. And in high-level games, a tad bit extra focus and effort can translate to a couple baskets in the span of 48 minutes. Multiply that by the number of players on the court, and i think we can get a blowout.
…
D’Antoni, I think he just got sick of getting all the blame after, what, taking the team at least to the conference finals and otherwise having the team compete in the ultra-competitive west. Compared to Sloan, for example, I don’t think D’Antoni did any worse; but we really don’t hear about Sloan’s system not working in the Playoffs. This is DESPITE having all sorts of bad breaks, from Joe Johnson to Stoudemire to suspensions…
And he’ll do well in any surrounding just because players will respect his cred. The fact that he’s just as good massaging egos is just a bonus (not as accomodating and manipulative as PJ, perhaps, but he gives players numbers).
…
This NCAA thing seems too forced and too arbitrary. Have universities cut deals with agents to have their entire roster represented, allow them to get sponsored and whatnot as a team and divide benefits.
It will help ease pressure on students to declare and make money asap, while educating them with life after college with agents and whatnot. Surely it will cost the NCAA, but they’re making too much money at the students’ expense.
…
Farmar just raised his standards a bit earlier, so yeah, he has earned as much flak as the praises he got. He’ll come through. Kobe had his back earlier in the season, and that probably means Farmar is a hard worker. Hard work will pay off, especially if you’re as talented as Farmar.
…
Interesting bit from the Daily Dime:
Kobe had 33 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds in the Lakers’ overtime loss at Utah. Bryant has posted at least 30 points, six assists and six rebounds in each of his last five games, the longest such streak for any player in NBA postseason history. Michael Jordan (1993 to 1995) and Oscar Robertson (1963 to 1964) had four-game streaks which spanned playoff years.
LakerFan says
Kwame A knows what im saying. Lakers have a real shot this year and they cant just bank on the “oh we will be good in the future so it doesnt matter that much” mantra that Craig is. You have to take maximum advantage of your present opportunities. Nothing is guaranteed in future seasons anything can happen.
Palani says
Re anybody defending that farmar (26th pick 2006) is still a 2nd year player, look at rondo, who is 21st pick 2006.
Stephen says
I think a “perfect storm” of events has combined to make the home court edge humongous.
1)The NBA ref corps has had alot of the old guard retire over past few yrs and has an abundance of young refs who are both intimidated by vocal home crowds and have maybe bought into the “home teams get the calls” shtick that they’ve heard over the yrs.
2)Young teams. LA,NO,Utah,Atl are among youngest teams in League. As pointed out on TRUE HOOP recently,increasing minutes are going to young role players. Young players traditionally play better at home and w/hyped home Playoff crowds they get plenty of motivation. On the road they’re not yet mentally tough enough to ignore hostile crowds,bad plays,bad calls,etc.
3)Fans.The attending fans are really into the games early,esp the teams that are in for first time(Atl,NO,Philly)and they are giving a huge energy boost to their teams.(Look at how many teams get an early jump at home and basically ride that lead thru the game.)
4)Lack of Playoff tested veteran teams. SA,Detroit and Utah are the only teams that have been together for at least a couple of yrs and have had successful Playoff runs. Not too suprising that they have won on the road in Playoffs.(Even tho Utah is very young,they at least had a run last yr w/essentially same team.)
5)Superstars that aren’t.The old conventional wisdom was that an elite player could take over and win a game on the road. What we have been slow to realize is that smart coaching staffs-and making the Playoffs demonstrate some coaching intelligence-can create a defence that will prevent that elite player from doing so. Coaches are designing and teams are implementing schemes that are designed to make the role players beat them. As noted in #1,often those role players are young and play so much better at home.
6)The vanishing Third Option. Teams would like to have 3 scoring options so if the defense concentrates on #1,there are two other players who can be reliably counted on to score,so if one’s cold the other isn’t. Most of teams in this yrs Playoffs don’t have an established third scoring option. Either it’s from injury(Hou,Wash),didn’t have one(Den,Cleveland,Dallas,Atl,Tor,Philly)or never established the heirarchy(Bos,Pho),too many teams have to have everything go right to score-and that’s extremely tough on the road.
Or it just could be the East Media obsessing over the Celts and ignoring everybody else. To date the Pistons have 3 rd wins,the Lakers,Jazz 2 and NO,SA,Hou,Philly,Orl and Cle have/had 1.
Snoopy2006 says
Here’s something that ties in (a little) to the home court point: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/news/story?id=3392778
The most interesting thing about that story to me was that I actually agreed (and I’m 20, so no, I’m not a senior citizen). I find it incredibly annoying to watch a Celtics game where the smoke hangs in the air the entire first half, and the TV screen is a little hazy because of it. I realize Boston has had nothing to celebrate in basketball for decades, but seriously. Rockets and fire before every game? That’s taking it a little too far.
Maybe I just hate the Celtics, idk…
Snoopy2006 says
I noticed a comment about the upcoming draft….who would you guys take #1?
I’ve said since last December that I would take Rose over Beasley. I think Beasley will be an amazing pro, and that his off-court issues will not be a problem. However, you win championships (for the most part) with 1s and 5s. Swingmen are very easy to come by. Beasley will have a much better rookie season that Durant because of his body/strength. And Rose might have a bit more of a learning curve. But I think in the long run Rose will be a champion, while Beasley will end up in the Carmelo mold.
That’s not saying Beasley can’t win a championship, as long as he has the right management. But I think it’s easier to build a championship around a PG than a SF/PF.
pw says
In the playoffs, till now almost 75% (44 of 59) of the games have been won by home teams. In the NFL, where weather and indoor/outdoor stadium types play a big role, the home team wins around 60% of the games. I do not see any such factors for home team advantage in the NBA and I do not see any reason why NBA’s homecourt advantage should be more than NFL’s. However, assuming a probability of 0.6 that home team wins (same as NFL), the probability that you have 44 or more home team wins in 59 games is 0.01. That is really, really small.
This implies that there are other factors at play than just the “home court”. Having seen most of the playoff games this year, I can visually vouch for that the fact that home teams have a distinct advantage in terms of officiating (Maybe someone can look at foul rates and rationalize this theory). Biased officiating is possibly the only reason why there is such a wide difference between what should be observed (home team winning around 60% games) and what is actually observed (home team winning 75%).
Now, it’s debatable whether the officiating in favor of home teams is something controlled by NBA management or just coincidental.
Overall, it plays into the league’s advantage if the home team were to win. Ticket sales would increase if the home team were to win more often than not. Who wants to go see a team which loses most home games. Playoffs series are extended as even a weak home team has a chance to win against a stronger opponent. Longer series is better for the NBA because it creates a better image and also television viewership/popularity is higher. More importantly, ticket/TV/ad revenues for each additional playoff game is so high that it makes sense to play as many playoff games as possible. Think about when the Spurs lost to the Suns in Game 4, lot of people speculated that it was intentional so they could play one more home game.
If I were David Stern, I would do as much as possible to make the officiating as competent and unbiased as possible (especially after the Donaghy scandal). Why do you want to fuel all these conspiracy theories? Plus, there is so much more grumbling about officiating in the NBA than in any other league.
anoni says
31 Defending Bibby and Boobie/West is nothing compared to defending Deron.
Kurt says
31. Palani, you really think Rondo is all that great? He was nearly given up on, but this year he broke out shooting 49.1% (eFG%) for the year, Farmar shot 55%. Rondo shot 26.3% from three, Farmar 37%. Rondo turned the ball over on a slightly higher percentage of his possessions.
Now, as Anoni pointed out, Rondo is covering and being covered by a stiff, Jordan has had to face up on one of the three best PGs in the game. I think a better question is, how much of a hero would Farmar have been in Boston if he had Rondo’s role this year?
Stephen says
PW,
while I agree officiating has a role,it isn’t the sole -nor do I think even the most important-reason. While we are seeing important role players in foul trouble,we have rarely seen team’s best player in trouble-and these are the guys who are supposed to win games on the road. Further,home teams are getting out to big leads early-way before mounting FTs and foul trouble can have an effect.(Not to mention NFL refs are atrocious and their calls can affect a game far more than NBA refs can. Get a holding call on 2,3 down and that drive is killed. W/less than 20 drives per game that one call has a much greater impact than a call on one of 75-80 NBA possesions.)
I just saw study of the 2 seasons 02/03 thru 03/04 and it had some interesting results. The home team’s biggest pt edge was FIRST Q. By quarter the home team averaged 1.28(1Q),1.07(2Q),.89(3Q) and .45(4Q)more per game than the visitor. This suggests something more than refs. I suggest home crowds that are energetic have more of an impact than is thought. In the Playoffs the home crowds are esp. amped.
carter blanchrd says
One more theory about this increasingly bizarre trend: the self-fulfilling prophecy. We know from all those scoops from the likes of Thorpe on TrueHoop that confidence and self-doubt play a much bigger role in performances than you might suspect. So maybe with a team like Utah that tells itself it doesn’t lose at home can become convinced of it to the point that it becomes true. Conversely, maybe after that first loss in Atlanta the Celtics start to think, “maybe we don’t have what it takes to win on the road in the playoffs” and that self-doubt grows and grows as it proves itself true. I don’t know. I still hold it doesn’t make total sense.
eyeGore says
Every Laker fan has a right to chew out players who are fading in the playoffs. Radmanovic has faded as well, but no one has done less than Farmar. Given how much he plays, he’s given us next to nothing as of late. At least Radman gives us some hustle. Jordan seems to have just completely broken down mentally, he looks like he doesn’t think he can accomplish a thing out there. I’m actually a big fan of his, and that’s why I care so much for his disappearing act. I want him to do well.
Kurt says
40. Everyone does have a right to criticize Farmar, and you will be hard pressed to find people on this site that think his minutes should remain as high as they have been recently. We’ve all been on the “more Sasha” bandwagon for a while now.
But (and this is not aimed at you), that is totally different than suggesting “Farmar sucks” and (something not broached here but on other Lakers sites) that he should be traded because he will never amount to anything. I would say he already has, but is now slumping as young players are prone to do. Plus, if someone wants to come to this site and thrash Farmar they are going to have to make a cogent argument that can be debated. I’ve already deleted a few “Dude, Farmar just sucks” posts and will continue to do so. We welcome a difference of opinion and debate, but people need to make that argument.
By the way, this was not directed as an attack on comment 40, eyeGore. Your comment was good. I just wanted to set a few ground rules as the commenting around here increases and passions go up during the playoffs.
Kurt says
26. J.D. Hastings, I agree that everyone in their right mind understands that revamping the Knicks is a multi-year process (whoever you bring in to coach) and that the winning will not be immediate. But, this is the New York media we are talking about. How long before Post columnists and WFAN hosts start tearing him up for not winning? How long before that impacts the fans?
Scot says
Unfortunately, the Lakers are in an untenable situation. They have a guy in Farmar who likely is the team’s future starting PG whose confidence is shot and who needs his team to have faith in him so he can work out of this awful slump, grow and be that reliable go-to guy for years to come. However, the team is deadlocked in a tight series, and they really can’t afford to put him on the floor when DFish is out and let Utah go on runs that ultimately are insurmountable. While statistics sometimes lie, Farmar’s -19 +/- is quite reflective of the damage he did to the team while he was on the floor yesterday (if not the whole series).
Although I respect the point of view that this Lakers team has a bright future and the “win for now” approach might have some potentially negative consequences down the road, I nevertheless side with that approach and support the benching of Farmar in favor of Sasha. Because the fact is, despite all signs pointing to an optimistic outlook for the Lakers the next 5 years, we simply don’t know what the future holds. Kobe could blow out an ACL next year. Bynum might not fully recover from his injury. Lamar might go elsewhere when his contract soon expires. Please remember that the Clippers looked like a young and upcoming team less than 2 years ago (and just one poor defensive substitution away from the Western Conference Finals), and now they are just a shell of themselves. Yes, it’s the Clippers (with their history of self-destruction) and not the Lakers, but even the Clips can’t be responsible — nor was it predictable — for Brand and Livingston to both go down with catastrophic injuries. So the point is, the Lakers have a realistic chance of getting to the Finals THIS year. And if that means benching Jordan, even if he takes a big hit to his development and confidence, the Lakers have to do it. Because despite the optimistic view that he will work his way out of this slump, there simply is no evidence that he will. And the Lakers don’t have the luxury of letting him try. If Williams continues to run roughshod over Farmar when DFish is on the bench, the Lakers’ season ends on Friday night. Prematurely and unnecessarily.
Stephen says
The home team dominance is really a Second Rd thing. Four of eight First Rd Series had home teams losing an equal number of games as they won. All the series except Boston/Atl had a home loss. Overall about 1 out of 3 First Rd Home games were losses.(Take out the Celts/Hawks and the home team won @62% of the time-which is close to the NFL stats PW pointed out.)
So why is the Second Rd so lopsided? First,it hasn’t finished-the Cavs/Wiz saw the road team win the last three games-so we don’t know what will be final results. Perhaps the teams are so evenly matched that an outside factor-like the home court-can tip the balance.(If the teams were playing on neutral courts they’d split however many games they’d play-whereas the edge a home court gives-crowd,refs,rest,whatever-is just enough that a team playing at home would almost always beat the other.
As to Knicks,other than Randolph’s killer contract,there’s enough there to work w/.Crawford could be useful to a couple of teams in the Playoffs(Cleveland,Orlando). Portland has a ton of young talent and they want a solid vet to provide an example-Malik Rose perhaps. I could easily see them trading for Diaw and buying the late Seattle First. Convince D’Antoni to play the kids,let Marbury expire,if have to buy out Randolph. The “impatient” NY fans have put up w/bad teams for how many yrs now? Give them hope and a future and watch them come back.
eyeGore says
I gotcha Kurt. I’m not even sure where the whole trading Farmar thing came from, I like him and a poor playoff series in one of the toughest conferences ever is certainly not going to outweigh a season worth of good work and solid play in my mind.
Personally, I’m more outraged at the fact that Kobe was in the game for so long leaving us playing 4 on 5 basically. The team was playing well, and while he did help us get to the overtime, there is no way Utah would be foolish enough not to patch up things quickly between the 4th quarter and OT.
I hope we get some fair refereeing (Ronny should not have been ejected) and most importantly a healthy Kobe for Wednesday night. Maybe Vlad and Jordan can shake loose, too.
eyeGore says
Speaking of the Knicks.. isn’t Walsh the GM who can somehow magically make bad contracts disappear? And no matter how much skepticism D’Antoni is facing since he won’t have Nash, he is an upgrade over Zeke. The Knicks fans would have taken anyone, really, just to end that whole era.
As much as I hate to admit it, It’s too early to write off the Suns. 1) They have a load of talent on that roster, and some of their nice pieces are still young (Amare, Barbosa, Diaw). Coupled with the vets Shaq and Nash, the right coach can keep them contending. 2) I never understood the Shaq trade. Brian Skinner was playing very well for them earlier in the year, why didn’t they use him at center and move Amare to his natural power forward spot where he’s shown to be nothing short of amazing? Skinner at 5, Amare at 4, and Marion at 3 makes for a scary line-up.
lakerfan101 says
The article about O.J. Mayo in the ESPN site was very interesting indeed. We all knew this kind of activity was being done. Make sure and follow the story through the links to Truehoop and the Pat Forde discussions.
I hope nothing bad happens to USC over this. As Forde says about what the NCAA could do:
“they’re not likely to ever again disband a program for a year after the smoking crater it left at SMU.”
That ‘s true with what happened at SMU.
Anyway, the Lakers should win 2 of 3 games to go on.
lakerfan101 says
For those of you who don’t know, he was talking about SMU football in 1987, the program was destroyed for twenty years.
Wenzel says
39 i’m with you on this – the self fulfilling prophecy, but not only for the home team but also for the away team, the refs and the crowd. It is recognized as a given that the home team wins so there are less questions asked afterwards, the game went as it was to supposed to. And then – to put a little conspiracy theory into the mix – i think that the nba is eager to see the home teams win to strengthen the importance of the regular season so that winning 60+ suddenly doesn’t mean anything like it was with Dallas last year
Melvin Mason, Jr. says
The OJ Mayo situation is nothing new, but it is new on the level of in-depth reporting done on this particular case.
When I heard about OJ Mayo allegedly receiving “gifts” from some sports agency in return of becoming his representation in the NBA, I first thought that OJ was the bad guy. I began to think and realized that if I was in his shoes I probably would have done similiar things. Especially if I did not put any importance on going to college and get a degree, but just wanted to jump to the Pros.
He knows and others do, at least up to now, that he is a gifted basketball player. He was never going to go to college for 2-3 years to mature as a player. He wanted to go straight to the NBA. Everybody, including USC, knew that.
The blame should go to his parent(s) who, I am just assuming, allowed these “leeches” to hook onto him in middle school.
The NBA and David Stern is at fault for the one-year of college rule that prevents young players from becoming eligible for the draft. The “one year” rule only helped perpetuate the “one and done” scenario of some college players. Maybe if it was a “two or three year” rule like in the NFL, then it would have been better because then the players at least would have to go to class.
Also, the NCAA and this “student-athlete” system is at fault. The NCAA should not be the minor league for the NBA, even though it seems to be. If the NBA really wanted to make changes, then they should setup Basketball Academies like in other countries where the players learn how to play basketball with the help of professional coaches and players.
One solution is to have the colleges offer a Sports Degree program where your sport is your degree program. This would keep the spirit of the “Student-athlete” while at the same time the players would not be taking courses like Communication and Ethnic Studies which they don’t plan on ever using.
Does anyone think with OJ Mayo and Reggie Bush that USC is about to fall like UNLV did back in the 1990s?
tonex says
Hi,
Maybe you meant Lee and Curry (not Chandler)?
Craig W. says
The O.J. Mayo and ESP N thing. I hear everyone just assuming all the allegations are true and following up with discussing who is at fault — the kid, the coach, the school, the NBA.
First: we haven’t seen the evidence; we are making assumptions based on our opinion that this is continually going on. Then we we make extrapolations based on our like/dislike of the school. Finally we blame the NBA because we don’t like their rule of not letting players just out of high school into the league. I am going to respond to the last point, because this is an NBA blog.
The NBA has a right to make rules regarding eligibility requirements to get into the draft process. These are employment regulations that any employer can make, as long as one group of people are not favored over another (don’t bring age into this because it doesn’t fly). This has nothing to do with the NCAA or the individual kids involved. While we can argue whether or not this is a good business decision, we shouldn’t fall into the trap of saying the kid has a ‘right’ to be drafted – that’s bunk.
As to how the NBA should be looking out for the NCAA or the individual people, that is also not the NBA’s responsibility – unless you want to view the NCAA as an official minor league.
Just because us fans want something, doesn’t make what we want either right, just, or legal.
Kurt says
51. No, I meant Wilson Chandler, one of the young guards on the team (out of DePaul). Only played like 15-18 a game most nights and was not terribly impressive in the current Knicks offense, except when Nate Robinson and Lee were in the game and the tempo picked up, then he looked more comfortable. New Yorkers complained that the kids never got a fair shake, I’m curious what happens under the new regime.
50. Here’s the thing I really want to know about Mayo: How different is his case from Derick Rose? Beasely? Love? Bayless? Eric Gordon? Not to unfairly tar any of those guys with the same brush, but I think what happened to Mayo is more common than not.
Allan Aaron Katz says
There seems to be a rule on the street if someone insults your mother you are obligated to throw all sanity out the window and physically attack the person. The logic is ridiculous, but anyone with any street life experience knows that you have no choice. Similarly there is a rule that you have to protect your home turf. You don’t have a choice, it’s a statement of your manhood. You are expected to triumph. This expectation results in a strange confidence that encourages athletes to play even above themselves. That’s why rookies have the largest disparities between home and road. Now I have seen this blow up in certain situations, the Lakers and the Montreal Canadiens can be like that. Where the pressure of the home court advantage, knowledgeable fans and intense media presence can reverse the situation and make road games somehow feel like huge weights off their backs. But generally and it seems in these playoffs the demand on one’s manhood to protect home turf results in underdogs coming back after whippings to dig deep inside in the absolute knowledge that they must persevere. The alternative would be being tied down to a chair and be forced to listen to yo Mama jokes about yo Mama and that is too much to bear.
harold says
problem with the NCAA is that it’s not about going to school. it’s about promoting the school, and so the one year rule is actually for the league, both leagues, not the players.
so i think the system needs to change so that it’s actually worthwhile for athletes to attend college. get them some income. Teach them about proper methods of self-diagnosis and remedies for injuries or things that may become injuries. Teach them about contracts and the system so they’re not abused. Give them classes in coaching, so that some may return to junior/high schools to coach.
The Fanalyst says
Yes, and look at the New York Giants Super Bowl run. They won almost all their away games during the regular season (with a mediocre home record) and then swept through the playoffs completely on the road. All the while, at least most of the time, the NYC media establishment was ripping them mercilessly. I’m no Giants fan, just thought I would follow AAK above with my own two cents. Go Lakers!
Warren Wee Lim says
Is it ok to be speculative on the Knicks?
Well its the Knicks and MDA’s uptempo small ball will be a very welcome change. They will soon realize that there is indeed a basketball God and that paying this man 6m per will put fans in the seats (although not wins yet with the current makeup).
If you go around trade boards, you’d find out that the Knicks are the most famous trade partners. Everyone, me included wants a shot at GM-ing the Knicks to supposedly make that franchise relevant again.
If its anywhere illegal, may I?…
The Knicks would be running from the get-go. This is MDA’s assurance and it will bring an exciting brand of basketball to the country’s financial capital. This, however will not happen with Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry.
So the Knicks might be better considering trading ZBo for KMart. Kenyon Martin runs the floor very well and has somehow recovered well from this microfracture surgery. Both have identical ugly contracts with some 46m left in 3 seasons after this one. Denver was rumored to be interested in ZBo and they could not wait to get their hands off KMart’s albatross contract. The Knicks save an almost insignificant amount but the benefit they get is the more mobile and uptempo PF they will have in KMart.
Eddy Curry is another question mark. Rather than make him rot on the bench (some claim he is best fitted for an uptempo team that does not require him to rebound), I think giving him to Riley works with a Blount + Daequan Cook deal. Blount’s contract has a year less and would fit very well to their 2010-get-LeBron cap space plan. In contrast, if Miami ends up with the #1 pick and does this deal, they’d have a lineup of: Rose, Wade, Marion, Haslem and Curry. Ain’t too shabby.
Finally, the Knicks need to be lucky in the draft. They are pegged to be picking 5th – with the odds stating they have a 7.6% chance at landing that #1. This is about a percent higher than what Portland had last year. While many will like Mike Beasley for their #1 pick, the Knicks sorely need a guy like Derrick Rose. How fitting would it be to have a new GM, new coach and a new franchise player all in one off-season.
Kurt says
New post up, talking a little Lakers.