Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail BlazersWed Feb 11, 10:00 PM EST – TWSN, KGW Line: POR -13.5, O/U: 196.0 Moda Center at the Rose Quarter – Portland, OR Recent Matchups |
|
Ranks
|
Latest Results |
Leaders
|
|
|
Ranks
|
Latest Results |
Leaders
|
|
In a way, you have to hand it to the Lakers as they keep finding creative ways to lose. After losing late leads to the Bucks and Magic and then losing in overtime, the Lakers decided to forgo OT altogether against the Nuggets and lose the game by simply surrendering a game they pretty much controlled the entire time in regulation. The Nuggets scored the last nine points of the game and to win by 10 going away.
The star of that game was Ty Lawson (32 points and 16 assists), who the Lakers simply could not contain off the dribble in isolation or out of the pick and roll. This, of course, does not bode well in tonight’s game with Damian Lillard lurking. Lillard has absolutely tormented the Lakers, averaging 36.5 points (on 56.8% shooting, 50% from behind the arc) and six assists in the two previous meetings between these teams. And it’s not like Lillard was gunning for the entire game to get those numbers, either. Most of his damage was actually done on the 4th quarter of both games where he simply blitzed the Lakers, scoring 37 points in only 18 minutes of action over both wins.
So, yes, the Lakers are in trouble tonight. And I’d say that even if Lillard wasn’t going all Beatrix Kiddo on the Crazy 88’s whenever the Lakers are the opponent. Though they went through a rough patch (but still playing over .500 ball) with Robin Lopez out, the Blazers are still one of the best teams in the west and offer a deep, versatile lineup that is simply more talented than the Lakers. If lining up both rosters tonight side by side for a draft, you would likely select six or seven Blazers before even considering taking a Laker.
The fact that the Lakers are playing on the 2nd night of a back to back make things even more challenging. But, if they are to compete tonight, a few things need to happen:
- The Lakers’ bigs must control the backboards and limit LaMarcus Aldridge’s effectiveness. LMA can be a deadly jumpshooter and has enough of a post game to be a matchup nightmare. But, if he can be guarded closely and forced into misses, the Lakers have a better shot to win. I expect Robert Sacre to get the first minutes against LMA and hopefully his strength can keep the Blazer off his spots and limit his shot making.
- The wings must make shots. The Blazers are a proficient three point shooting team and if the Lakers are going to keep pace they too will need to make some jumpers. The charge will need to be led by Wayne Ellington and a slumping Nick Young, who are both capable of getting hot. Jordan Clarkson will also need to hit a few jumpers — something that will also help his ability to get into the paint.
- Carlos Boozer will have to hit his shots. Boozer has been a very nice offensive player since moving to the bench and that will need to continue tonight. If he is hitting his 15 foot jumper, it can help buoy the second unit’s offense.
Of course, even if all these things happen the Lakers are likely to lose. But, those things working out in their favor give them the best chance.
Where you can watch: 7:00pm start time on TWC Sportsnet. Also listen on ESPN Radio 710AM Los Angeles.
Calvin Chang says
The Lakers best chance to sniff a win and make things close is to lull the opponent to a false sense of security and over-confidence. I would advise the Laker players to pal and joke around with the Blazer players, throw in some zone defenses, and get the Blazers out of rhythm and hope they play a bit sloppy. If the game is close in the 4th quarter, then they can double Lillard and let someone else beat them. Don’t poke the bear and give the Blazers any incentive to get motivated. Lol
Calvin Chang says
By the way, credit to you Darius. It must be hard writing these previews when we know the Lakers aren’t really trying to win. And in fact, winning honestly is not in their best interest. They cannot lose that draft pick. When the season started, we were making fun of some other commenter at a different site when he said “Jahlil = ringzzzz”, Now I’m saying it. Jahlil = Ringgzzzzzz
Ko says
This should be close. 25 to 30 points.
Chearn says
At this juncture, why not opt for top three in the draft as opposed to position 7-13? Who cares, ticket holders will not get face value for the balance of the season for their tickets. May as well retain season tickets for next year to get a look at the draft pick, the return of Randle, and the off-season improvement of Clarkson and Black. And, the return of the Mamba!
For this season, the milk is out of the bottle and no matter how many rolls of Brawny one uses will recapture the spilled milk.
Let the Lakers that the team designates as returnees next season play and sit everyone else.
Aaron says
From last thread…
I don’t know guys, Magic would be very valuable in the Lakers FO. Treat him like George Castanza… Hear what he has to say and just do the opposite.
Tim says
Nick Young is hurt, hope it is not serious.
Ko says
Baggie P’s act is getting way , way old. Not too funny when he is shooting 29% in 2015. Not interested in watching his act for 2 more years. Guy stinks. Another bone head foul for him. . Future working in a shoe store though.
Guy needs to be gone with Kelly soon. Another brilliant signing by Jimmy. Man this organization in incompetent.
George says
Regarding the Magic article – rr commented, “It doesn’t really matter what Magic says unless he really is a proxy for Jeanie”.
You understand that if Magic is a proxie for Jeanie then the Laker FO is more of a mess than we all think. Such an assumption would mean that there indeed could be a power struggle between the Buss kids. Such a battle would likely drag the team down further before it’s resolved.
Tim says
The injury to Nick Young is a left peroneal tendon strain. The injury bug bites the Lakers again.
BigCitySid says
-Minny & Philly are improving while Lakers and Knicks are getting worst.
-Knicks & Lakers will be going head to head in the free agent market this summer, rookie GM Phil vs Mitch the vet, Dolan vs Little Jimmy B.
-Free agents will have the choice of playing 2nd fiddle to Kobe or Melo…
rr says
You understand that if Magic is a proxie for Jeanie then the Laker FO is more of a mess than we all think.
—
Pretty much. I have no idea, at all, of course, if Magic is speaking up for someone who doesn’t want to show his/her hand or if he just giving his own opinions, or some of both.
Todd says
Regarding Young: Guy needs to be gone with Kelly soon. Another brilliant signing by Jimmy. Man this organization in incompetent.
—-
Young’s production, age and contract length make him relatively undesirable. It’s why so many of us were scratching our heads when the terms if his deal were announced. I always thought he was a ‘nice to have’ — the Lakers, for some reason, felt he was a ‘need to have’.
Lawrence says
You know we’re not trying to win anymore, right? I feel like I’m in some parallel universe where losing is winning. In other words, for the first time in my life, I understand what it’s like to be a Clipper. God, I hope they miss the playoffs.
the other Stephen says
That tank game…so strong.
G says
Nick Young’s contract isn’t so bad especially when the new Cba kicks. Ryan Kelly isn’t a sf so he’s playing out of position(which is why he looks so lost)I think he’s got some potential as a stretch 4. Lakers should trade one of their bigs so he gets a chance at the 4. He was decent last year as a rook, so was Nick….this is just a lost season where we tank and keep our pick. Lets just give the Lakers the benefit of the doubt. If they cannot make this team at least entertaining next year and playoff bound the year after that, then we should all petition for Jim Buss ouster.
Renato Afonso says
Are we still talking about Kelly as a keeper? Are we sure about this? The man can’t rebound, is clueless on defense and his only upside is three point shooting. He’s a 11th or 12th roster player at best and those we can find easily elsewhere… We should focus on setting the 6th-10th roster spots with the guys we have and then try to get a decent starting lineup.
Ko says
G
Oh G. Please stop with Kelly!
Playing 20 minutes a fame. Shooting 32% from the floor with 2 RBs and 1 asst. AND HE STARTS?
Last night he missed a wide open 5 footer by 2 feet, had 4 other wide open shots, got beat in D 6 times, Small forwards big forward, point guard, layup line moniter it matters none. This guy plays like a soft high school girl. No other team would have him on their roster and no team in Laker history would start this clanker. .
Nice guy but not an NBA player. Starting him shows how badly Scott is being forced to lose every single game.
Ryan Kelly us an embarrassment to all Laker fans who understand the game.
ENOUGH,
pat says
Agreed RA: R.Kelly is 11-12th man at best.
R says
Tanks for the memories
Robert says
“Such a battle would likely drag the team down further before it’s resolved.” Indeed – however that or something like it might be necessary. I do not think Jim is capable of leading us to a title. Could he get us moderately better – yes – but that will just prolong his tenure. Sometimes things need to get worse before they get better. Unfortunately – I think we will get moderately better however our records of not being out of the Finals for more than 8 years, and not having more than 11 years between titles will both be broken.
Chearn: “Let the Lakers that the team designates as returnees next season play and sit everyone else.” Problem is that we need to keep 5 guys on the floor : )
Aaron: “Hear what he has to say and just do the opposite.” Well – there are a couple of others involved with the Lakers who this would apply to and unfortunately unlike Magic – they have actual power over the team.
Vasheed says
Kelly is a niche stretch PF. So I don’t wildly disagree with Kelly being a 10-12 guy. Hes a pretty good defender who does not have great speed who is currently being asked to guard quick SFs. He spends half his time sitting at the 3pt line so low rebound numbers are not unexpected. He hits 3 at a good clip and for a guy who is making 1.5 million as a niche guy off the bench who plays smart its hard to complain about him. Yet I read complaints constantly about Kelly as though he should be Nowitzki.
Looking into the future I see something like this barring a trade in the next week:
Starting Line Up:
Hill
Top 5 Pick
Free Agent
Free Agent
Bryant
Reserves:
Randle
Young
Black
Clarkson
Kelly
Sacre
Houston Pick (1st Round)
Lakers 2nd Round Pick (top 40 protected, Orlando)
Just looking at existing contracts, draft picks, and I would hope 2 free agent signing to the starting line up already gets up to 13 players before possibly adding Davis.
Calvin Chang says
Lakers need to get Jahlil. He’s the next Tim Duncan, Patrick Ewing. Jahlil = ringzzzz! Legit low post scorer who will draw double-teams.
Darius Soriano says
Regarding Ryan Kelly, I’ve said this a hundred times before, but will repeat it again now: the only things we’re learning about Kelly now are things we already knew. He’s not a SF, can’t be asked to guard quick perimeter oriented players in space, and will struggle when wings who are used to guarding players beyond the arc are his primary defender.
What we’re not learning is whether he can actually play the role he *should* be asked to play — a stretch PF who spaces the floor while being defended by bigger players who have other defensive responsibilities. I’ll write on this soon, but players who defend at the PF position are, in many defensive schemes, asked to be the secondary helper when the primary big man has to be the initial help. There is a reason why stretch PF’s are valuable and it’s because when their man has to help, defensive schemes either require a wing to play two men (his own man and the weak side big) or have the secondary big man helping dig into the paint and then recover back to his own man.
Kelly is not getting the benefit of being guarded by that defender. Instead, he’s being defended by a wing who is 1). generally quicker and able to help/recover with more speed and 2). has mostly perimeter based rotations responsibility where his primary goal is to stay home with shooters first and make a rotation to the weak side second.
So, basically, I don’t see how anyone can make definitive claims about what Kelly is or is not based on how he’s playing this year, in this system, while playing a position that is not the one he is suited to playing long term in the NBA. Remember when, under Mike D’Antoni, Wes Johnson played all those minutes at PF and had to guard guys like Zach Randolph in the post and got obliterated in the paint and on the glass? This Kelly situation should be viewed the same way. We knew Wes wasn’t a full time PF then, just as we know that Kelly isn’t a full time SF now.
I’m not saying Kelly is a sure thing. I do think he’s a rotation player in this league as an 8th-10th man (essentially a 3rd or 4th big man on a team) who can contribute good minutes. I base that off his skill set, the way the league is trending, and the fact that he’s a smart player who doesn’t make many mistakes while on the floor. But what I’m not basing that off are his minutes this year which are, essentially, a waste of time based off the role he’s being asked to play.
Brandon Burkhart says
As a Spurs fan, I’d love for the Lakers to give up on Ryan Kelly so the Spurs could pick him up as a Matt Bonner replacement. Pop could make a solid 8th man out of Kelly.
Anonymous says
What the team needs now is to keep losing. We need our picks. Getting mad over the losses is pointless. You can’t expect this group of bums to be a title contender. This off season and next will determine whether this team remains under the Buss ownership or not.
But even if the team were to be sold to Elon Musk today and he were to come in dancing and screaming “money is no object – let’s get that trophy!”, the reality is that the best outcome for this season is a terrible record and cap space, and then hope for good draft picks and free agent signings in the next two season, followed by the hiring of a coach that actually knows what he is doing and can handle today’s NBA superstars (hint: its not Byron Scott).
Jesse says
Thank you Darius! and to anyone else who sees that criticizing Kelly’s game is pointless as he’s playing completely out of position where his weaknesses are exposed and his strengths are absolutely not utilized.
He really had some solid games as a rookie last year (remember that one crazy play – the gif was posted a lot- where he filled about 5 different slots on the stat sheet in one play, lol).
I feel sorry for the young man: injuries to start the season and now, when you have a chance to get a lot of serious minutes, you’re doing so at completely the wrong position. Turning into a lost season for him.
Brandon, I’m a huge Lakers fan, but for Kelly’s sake, I’d love to see him get to a team where he has a real chance to reach his potential….you’re right about the Spurs. It’s not going to happen for him with BS as the coach.
the other Stephen says
@Vasheed,
I think it would be wise for the FO to move Hill next week, unless it believes that he can continue extending his range out past the three point line, or that he can be drawn back to playing towards his strengths/can curtail the habits he’s picked up this year. I like that he’s worked hard on refining his offensive game, but he’s taking 49% of his total shots from 10-22 feet (a huge jump from last year’s 23%), and is making only 38% of those shots. This has made for a lot of ugly basketball this year.
From a strategic and roster construction perspective, the Lakers have a glut of front court players, and may have even more incoming next year (2+ strong PF/C prospects where we might pick in the lottery, a returning Randle, and Kelly at PF if the coach ever wakes up). If anyone wants to jump in and add some big-picture considerations, I’m happy to hear them.
He’s started and been showcased in every game, and I think he could do well under a good coach and system.
R says
I’d love to know what the lakers ownership has in mind …. Is there any evidence they even have a plan? I’m sure any potential star FA would want to know as well ….
Aaron says
Usually when the military or a sports team has a plan they tell everyone. So I’m guessing they don’t have a plan.
“There is a big difference between winging it and seeing what happens… Now let’s see what happens.”
-MacGruber
Todd says
the other Stephen: I have also expressed concern/interest about our front court glut. Consider that a prime target on the FA market (UFA Greg Monroe) and 7 of the top 10 players in the draft (per ESPN) are front court players as well. If the criteria for a starting five were Centers and Power Forwards we would be unstoppable.
Darius Soriano says
IMO, the Lakers’ two biggest needs are at C and PG. Should the Lakers keep their pick, one of the Okafor/Towns/Muiday/Russel foursome will be on the board. One of the top SF prospects (guys like that will likely rise near the draft) should also be available. So, theoretically, if the Lakers are able to draft with their pick (fingers crossed) they should be able fill a major need in the draft and then look to fill another need in free agency with a key signing while also adding some other role player types to help fill out the roster. Then, in 2016, they can chase another big fish in FA when Kobe’s salary comes off the books.
If I were building a roster, this would be an approach I would strongly consider viable. And a roster could look like this next season:
PG: draftee/FA/Clarkson
SG: Kobe/Young
SF: FA (likely a mid-tier guy making 3 – 5 million per)
PF: Randle/Kelly
C: draftee/FA (Davis?)/Sacre/Black?
A lot will depend on which FA’s the Lakers’ target and if they keep their pick. But I would not be surprised if they do keep their pick that they try and deal the pick they got from Houston for another veteran player who can either play good minutes on the wing who can be an asset in team building for future years. And then you rinse and repeat in the summer of 2016.
Vasheed says
@the other Stephen,
In an ideal situation would I like to see Hill traded? Yes but, then I have to ask what is being offered. It would seem unlikely that a contending team would not want to shed that much salary unless the contracts being sent were either injured players or poor performing contracts. Typically contenders have low 1st round picks. So assuming the Lakers got an expiring contract the guy they replace Hill with is not likely to contribute in the short term. Hill’s contract is also structured in a way that he can force the other team to pick up his 2nd year if they really want him which makes him less palatable. Perhaps he would wave that right to a contender but I don’t think that is likely. A lot of teams have interest in Hill but there are so many pit falls dealing Hill that I’m not convinced that is likely. Trading away Hill also makes filling out a starting line up next year 1 more position more difficult.
I’m also fairly impressed with Hill’s improvement this year. Hill’s strength is rebounding and as such ideally he would be under the rim as much as possible. With most typical centers though it gets clogged in the paint if the PF cannot step out and hit a jumper. I don’t think a PF has to be a stretch PF but he needs to be able to keep his defender honest from 15 feet out. perhaps Hill should shoot less of these shots but, it is a milestone development in his game that we are even discussing his jumper.
The Lakers do have a huge glut at PF as you said. The guy I’ve been looking to move though would be Davis. He is a low budget guy who other teams can get without sending back significant salary. He is off the books next year and he is not a restricted free agent so there is little value to holding on to him. He is still enough of an impact guy that getting back a low first rounder wouldn’t be unreasonable imo.
rr says
Darius,
What do you think of Greg Monroe?
Stuart says
Darius:
If you knew that Greg Monroe would come if you offered would that change your draft pick to preference to either Muiday or Russel? I would assume that if the Lakers drafted Okafor or Towns they would not pursue Monroe.
My thinking is that the Lakers could fill two major holes with an elite FA signing and their top 5 draft pick versus just one if they only made the pick and sat on their cap space. So far the only known unrestricted elite young FA worth pursuing is Monroe. Of course, I suppose it would matter if you saw Monroe as only being elite as a PF an not as a Center.
Additionally, I do see the Lakers making minor FA acquisitions. When I mention rolling cap space forward it means forgoing a multi year/large dollar signing.
R says
Thanks Darius sounds plausible and as you say keeping the first rounder this year is looking good. “Their” first rounder is top three protected in ’16 so they would have to be terrible again next season but I have faith they can do it.
Darius Soriano says
I really like Monroe as a talent. I wonder about his defensive abilities as a guy who can anchor the back line, but that’s going to be true of a lot of guys. One of the questions I have is a fit next to Randle, which is one of the many reasons his injury was bad. One of the things I hoped to learn about Randle this past season was not only what he did well on the floor, but what type of players fit well next to him. The perception of Randle coming out of college is that he needs a big, shot blocking C to cover for him defensively. Without any evidence to contrary coming from this season, that perception remains.
That said, I’m a firm believer in getting talent and figuring the rest out. If Monroe were willing to come to the Lakers, especially at less than his max (which would be 25% of the cap), I’d definitely want him. To me, if you have a PF/C rotation of Monroe, Randle, Davis, Kelly you have a young, versatile group of players who could interchange in various lineups and play well offensively. Whether the defense would be there is another story…
In saying that, though, if the Lakers end up with an ability to draft Towns or Okafor, I don’t know if Monroe is really the answer. I might still pursue him, even if it’s to trade him a couple of years from now should you need a better fitting piece. This is why I say you grab the talent that is available to you and go from there. Especially if you know that guy can play and he doesn’t have a lot of question marks about character/work ethic/etc.
Aaron says
The Lakers have four needs. They currently have one starting caliber player (Randle) on the roster and he is a SF who at times can play PF. We dont have to worry about needs at this point… We need everything.
Todd says
Darius:
Follow-up question. Do you think the Lakers will make sufficient moves that will push them up in the standings? Or, will they simply make their top 5 pick, roll salary forward and look to be awful again next year in an effort to keep their top three pick.
My gut says that, the FO will feel pressure to move up in the standings. I think they will be active this summer in a sincere effort to improve the team.
the other Stephen says
@Vasheed,
Good points. Regarding Hill, he has mentioned putting up threes with confidence in practice, but has held back in games, “because we have got our three-point shooters on the team.” I’d rather see if he can take one step back and take the three at around 38%, rather than the two at the same clip.
“’If I took 100 threes right now, I would say I could make close to 50,’ Hill told me. ‘Probably 40.’ I pointed out that would point him in Stephen Curry territory, and that he is thus far 0-for-11 from the arc in his career. Hill smiled. ‘I can shoot threes,’ he said. ‘I can definitely make them. I am just not worried about making threes right now because we have got our three-point shooters on the team. But I know I can knock them down if I have the chance.'” – http://bit.ly/1J57o6d
Robert says
Brandon Burkhart (Spurs): Let me ask you a question. Do you ever under any circumstances, root for the Lakers? I ask because there are people here who actually root for the Spurs after the Lakers are out. Crazy right? It is not me. I hate the Spurs (2nd only to the Celtics). Which I think is more of a compliment to your franchise than me actually rooting for them under any circumstances as a Laker fan.
Ano (with regard to Byron): Yes – we get the roster first – then the coach. Bringing a new coach into this would not be smart. Who else other than Byron could do this now? Who would want to?
Todd: That is the question and I think you answered it. Logic would say, get the pick, make the pic, and only sign FA in the summer of 15 if they are an absolute steal and good for the long term. However if the heat is felt just to improve for improving sake, then we could set ourselves back more years. Mine and your fear.
Darius Soriano says
Todd,
A third straight year of being awful is something I’d imagine the FO wants to avoid. Even if their big push is going to be in the summer of 2016, they must know that they have to establish a foundation to attract some talent before that point. I don’t think they spend all their cap space next summer, but an investment in two rotation players to go with Kobe, Randle, Young, Clarkson, Kelly, and/or Sacre/Black is a step in the right direction. Likely not a playoff team, but not 25 wins bad.
Chearn says
@Robert, LOL.
@Brandon Burkhart, you’re not just right you’re darned right! And that, of course, would sicken me. It’s just difficult to judge a role player in a starter’s position for anything more than a game or two for injuries. I’m convinced Kelly will be a substantial role player with the Lakers for years to come. Guarantee if the Lakers release Kelly he’ll have plenty suitors, including the Knicks, Clippers, and Spurs amongst others.
LKK says
I’d love to see the Lakers secure a real center. Someone that can hold down the middle defensively. That would make everyone on the team better. So much depends on how the team’s finish impacts their draft position. If the chance to draft a good big is there, I’d take it. Otherwise, Greg Monroe should be on the radar. The FO should also be on the lookout for under-utilized players throughout the league. Guys that are good, but may be caught in a numbers crunch.
R says
As noted by Darius, Aaron and others the lakers have holes everywhere in essence so I would think seeking the best player available in any given situation makes the most sense.
I wouldn’t expect much from Kobe next year, other than an overwhelmingly likely 4th straight season-ending injury. Hope I’m wrong.
History suggests otherwise.
LKK says
Am I the only one who thinks the ASG should be held closer to the actual midway point of the season? This years affair is more notable for who’s injured than those actually playing. The week long break is good, though. I’d like to see a similar break at season’s end before the start of the playoffs. This could easily be accomplished by consolidating the first round of said playoffs. The first round is way too drawn out. Perhaps, a week of rest at season’s end would minimize the “resting” of players during the season. “Rest” of star players raises concern amongst the paying customers. It also raises eyebrows about playoff positioning and “tanking”.
Bryan S says
Greg Monroe’s obvious attributes are being a easy double double guy: very good scorer and rebounder. What isn’t so readily understood is that he is a terrific passer out of the post; a nice mix of creativity and skill. He played center in college in aPrinceton offense where he was able showcase these skills. Hasn’t played in anything
close to that system since. This is where BS’ Princeton offense might be attractive to Monroe. Like others, I am concerned about the fact that he is no rim protector, which may be the most important skill for a center in today’s game. To pair him with Randle, they would need a shot blocking stretch four, with Randle playing a power three. Saying all that, if the lakers keep their pick and it is a top three selection, I would take Towns in a heart beat and dance all night, ’cause that guy has Tim Duncan like upside…
Chearn says
I hoped that Tony Snell would stay hidden in obscurity until the Lakers could pluck him from that Bulls team.
Mid-Wilshire says
There are some excellent comments above which leads to an important discussion: how can the Lakers dig out from their current quagmire and return to true relevance in the NBA? There are three (3) primary avenues for becoming competitive again: 1) the draft, 2) Free Agent signings, and 3) trades. Because the Lakers have so few trade chips at present, all the focus will be on the first 2 alternatives — the draft and FA signings. This limits what we can do. And it may lenghen the process. But it won’t make the goal unachievable.
Because the Lakers are in such a deep whole at present and because their asset base is low, I believe, as I mentioned in a prior post about a week ago, that it will take a good 4-5 years (starting with this year) to rebuild the team. If it happens more quickly, I’ll be delighted. But let’s not be shocked if after another 2 years, the Lakers still have not won more than 40-44 games in a season.
In the corporate world (and I realize there are differences between a major corporation and a sports franchise), almost all companies have a good, solid, extremely detailed 5-year strategic plan. A good strategic plan must begin with a vision. It must answer the question: what kind of team do the Lakers want to be in another 4-5 years? A defensive force? A collection of 3-point shooting assasins? A young, athletic team that will run other teams into the ground? Or some combination of the three? The answer to this question will help determine whom the Lakers pursue in the upcoming draft and in free agency.
For example, if the Lakers decide to establish themselves as a defensive juggernaut, then they will draft players like Karl-Anthony Towns of Kentucky (7-0, 250 and a legitimate rim protector with a huge upside) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson of Arizona (a 6-7, 220 SF who is one of the premier wing defenders in the NCAA). And they may very well pursue Draymond Green of Golden State in free agency who, his coaches think, would be the actual defensive player of the year if the voting were held today.
Players such as these (or others) could transform this team almost overnight and make them a very different team from the one that we’re looking at every night.
With that, I still believe in the viability of a 5-year plan (which includes this year). That plan, outlined below, would include 3 overlapping stages: 1) acquiring talent, 2) developing talent (especially the younger players), and 3) molding them into a team. Golden State and Atlanta — the two teams with the best records in the NBA — are currently in the 3rd stage. But they both began at stage number #1. And it’s taken them a good 4 years to get to where they are now. Nothing happens over night. Not any more. Below is the plan that I have in mind:
2014 – 2015 Acquire new, young, athletic talent (Clarkson, Randle, Black); begin developing that talent; give them substantial playing time. Number of wins: 20.
2015 – 2016 Acquire more new talent (2-3 draft choices, 2 strong FAs and other FAs, and retain the best of the current team that fulfills the Lakers’ vision); continue to develop that talent. Number of wins: 30-34.
2016 – 2017 Acquire more talent ( the” final” pieces of the team as envisioned by the GM); continue to develop the younger players; begin molding the various players into a strong team. Number of wins: 40-46.
2017 – 2018 Finish molding the players into an outstanding team; return to the playoffs; compete for the conference title. Number of wins — 50-54.
2018 – 2019 Compete for the NBA title with one of the finest teams in the league. Number of wins: 56-60.
As I have said above, I would certainly be delighted if all of this were to happen faster. Acquiring an elite FA or 2 would hasten the process. But right now, the Lakers just aren’t going to be very interesting to the Goran Dragic’s (or even the Greg Monroe’s) of the world.
Therefore, it’s one step at a time. We’re at the beginning right now. But if we do all the right things, we should get there. But be forewarned, it probably won’t happen over night. That’s just the way of the world.
LKK says
Great post Mid-W!….
As painful as it may be, patience is the key. Another factor that may hasten the process would be a new CBA that is enhanced by a new TV deal. Although I have a feeling that there may be a labor struggle along the way.
Chearn says
Mid-Wilshire-had the Lakers developed a near-term and long-term strategic plan three years ago, the team would be near the end of the rebuild. With a visionary leader, maybe, just maybe the team would not have handicapped itself with the gargantuan contracts to Kobe and Nash. Even more noteworthy, no billboards for D-Ho.
rr says
Perhaps tangentially related to FA stuff: LeBron James has a part in the new Judd Apatow movie.
G says
Darius that was a nice assessment of Kelly I completely agree with you. Chearn maybe if Snell continues to play like this we can snatch butler instead…
Renato Afonso says
I’m sorry about coming back to the Kelly issue, but I strongly disagree with Darius here. While stretch PF’s are something almost every team has or covets, the fact that Kelly plays that position doesn’t mean he’s good at it.
Basketball IQ is measured in a number of ways and none that we can properly quantify. However, that basketball IQ is usually translated in both sides of the court and not only on offense. Yes, Kelly knows when to pass, when to shoot and when to put the ball on the floor but we’ve never seen a defense focus on him. And while I agree that he’s playing out of position this year, last year he was playing under MDA as a stretch PF on offense (and sometimes only big on the floor) and yet his rebounding numbers stayed low. I’m not asking for offensive rebounds since he usually stays outside the three point line but defensive rebounding numbers.
Last season there were several moments where Kelly was the main help in the painted area and he turned his back to the ball to look for his man. There were moments when he didn’t bother to box out. There were moments when he didn’t try to stop the drive and stayed with his man. This season he’s playing out of position but he’s still really dumb on the defensive side of the floor and those are not traits of a high basketball IQ. He shows no signs of improvement in any part of his game and “we” still believe in him for some reason unknown to me. Maybe it’s just me but I’ve seen dozens of Kelly’s around European leagues and most of them don’t make it to the NBA.
Maybe Kelly should develop a quicker release to help him score more 3 pointers. Maybe he should’ve bulked a little more to be able to handle opposing PF’s on defense. Maybe he should be able to read the opposing offense and be in the right place when providing help defense. Maybe he should learn more about the angles of 3 point shots to better position himself for the rebound. Maybe he should box out better. Maybe he should have more lateral quickness. Maybe he should be a better shooter when he’s wide open.
However, let me tell you one thing. He’s cheap, he doesn’t seem to cause problems and I’m totally ok with him being on the roster. But only as the 5th big to be used sparingly (11th-12th man status) against specific opponents. If he has a role larger than that, I would say we have a problem in our roster.
Lakafan says
Marc Stein: “The Los Angeles Lakers, who have also coveted Dragic for some time, are likewise presumed to be intent on testing the Suns’ resolve when it comes to their Slovenian point guard, since sources say L.A. plans to chase Dragic with an expected max four-year contract offer this summer valued at an estimated $80 million.”
No way I would pay Dragic $20M per year!! He’d be nice to have at $10-12M per year.
Calvin Chang says
Renato: That’s why it would have been good if Byron was playing RKelly at the 4 using this season to test if he can thrive as a stretch 4. He will definitely fail as a 3. As a role-playing stretch 4, he could be like Channing Frye or Ryan Anderson. Those players are useful for spacing out the defense – something Byron doesn’t seem to get. Like Brandon Burkhart said – if Pop had RKelly, he’s be used as a Matt Bonner replacement.
BigCitySid says
-Dragic @ $20M per? Is Kobe going to let him run the offense?
-@ least I’m glad they won’t be wasting time & effort attempting to sign Marc Gasol. At age 30, why would this low key guy even consider leaving a serious contender which can offer him more money to join a team going nowhere w/ a dysfunctional ownership group for less money which recently disrespected his brother big time in hiring MDA?
T. Rogers says
Calvin,
Kelly would work as a Bonner replacement only because the Spurs already have Parker, Leonard, Duncan, and Ginobli to draw all the attention. Pop is great at developing players. But it works because his core is set.
I may be ready between the lines on the the Kelly back and forth here. I think those who see what they think he can become are thinking of a team that already has cornerstone players. The ones dissenting like Renato may not be impressed because, without cornerstone players, guys like Kelly just aren’t worth much to a team. More over, he’s probably thinking a team without core talent has no time to wait to see what Kelly will become. We aldready know he not the next Dirk or LaMarcus Aldridge. I lean more in Renato’s direction. But I can see why some want to give Kelly a chance.
Darius Soriano says
Renato,
You’re damn right we disagree. Haha. But, since you went down this path, I have a couple of thoughts on what you wrote…
Rebounding, while an individual statistic, is understood also as a stat that is strongly related to your team and your teammates. Said another way, there are only so many rebounds available while on the floor. This year, for example, Kevin Love’s individual rebound totals have dropped off, but that was bound to happen when he’s sharing the floor with LeBron and Mozgov (and before that Varejao) and Tristan Thompson. Love’s not a worse rebounder now than he was in Minnesota. This is why rebounding numbers should also be judged off how well your team rebounds when you are on the floor. Since you brought up last season, last year the team had a better defensive rebounding rate when Kelly was on the floor (72.2%) than when Pau (71.0%) or Hill (70.4%) were on the floor. Kelly is not the same individual “rebounder” that Pau or Hill are, but the team performed better at this task when he was in the game. Mind you, this is in 1300 minutes, so it’s not like the sample is small.
Also, you’re telling me that a rookie big man who missed summer league and all of training camp got lost on defense? I am shocked! Playing good back line defense as a big man is something that nearly all young players struggle with. I saw Anthony Davis get lost his rookie season plenty of times. I’m not trying to compare Kelly to Davis, but I make the point to explain that the jump from college to the pros is a big one and understanding how to operate on the back line of a defense against NBA offenses whose goals almost always include putting primary and secondary big men into difficult help positions takes time to learn
This year Kelly has been better at these things, but, again, he’s playing out of position so it’s difficult to judge how much he is advancing, if at all. And this is my biggest issue with your analysis. It’s not that your thoughts on him won’t end up being correct, it’s that they come at a point in and within the context of a career that has been affected by injuries and improper role usage. In other words, you seem ready to bury him after what has been, essentially, a season’s worth of games into a career with half of those games coming in a role he should not even be asked to play.
Forget whether or not that’s fair (it’s not), and just ask yourself if you’d do that for any other player in the league. If your answer is yes, then I’m glad you’re not a personnel evaluator for any team that I root for.
Oldtimer says
Hard to tell what will be the future of Kelly but he’s 7 ft and good in 3 pts shooting but weak on defense and rebounds? However, being young, he can improve as years go by, not bad for a contract of $ 1M and 13th man on the bench. In the same token, I would also consider Boozer as 12th man on the bench next year at $3M extension of 1 year only. He has the offense, experience but terrible on defense. He is a veteran and a cool leader that could promote camaraderie among the newbies.
I would therefore favor the ff to be on our roster next season: Kobe, Randle, Clarkson, Black, Davis, Hill, Kelly and Boozer. Lakers need at least 6 good players from the draft, F/A to fill up positions as “starters” depending on Kobe’s condition on his last year. As starters Kobe as SG, Hill as PF, therefore Lakers need marquee players for PG; SF and Center. Without those inclusions, Lakers will have a hard time to compete in the West.
Oldtimer says
Oops, I forgot Ellington on the post above. That makes 9 you need only 5 more players to complete it to 14 players. I intentionally omitted Young, Johnson, Lin, Price.
Aaron says
Dragic is too old and too above average to spend anything over the min rookie contract on.
The analytics now show rebounding numbers are not important. Scraping rebounds off the floor or chasing down meaningless balls with nobody around is of no consequence. What matters is how much better your team rebounds with you on the floor. GMs say one of the best rebounders in the NBA the last few years has been Roy Hibburt. Even though Roy only pulls down 7-8 boards a game.
Whoops… Just saw Darius already covered this.
Calvin Chang says
TRogers – It’s more about core system than core players. RKelly could be just as effective on the Hawks, Suns, Cavs, Celts – basically, teams that value floor spacing and use a penetrate and kick-out game. He’s a potentially good role-player.
Calvin Chang says
On a separate note, I read that Robert Pera – Grizzlies owner – was going to participate in the All Star Celebrity game. Having no idea what he looked like, I thought “why would a 60 yr old corporate executive even bother to join this”. I was surprised to see some clips of him practicing on SBNation. Turns out he’s only 36 years old, and he’s got game. Very good form on the catch and shoot jumper. I thought I was watching a college player running through shooting drills. Cool to have an owner who still plays and has a good looking jumper.
bryan S. says
Aaron: agree 100% on your assessment of Dragic. He is aging and too much of a ball-dominant guard for today’s ball movement game. For much less, Clarkson can penetrate and kick out to shooters (when there are better shooters on the squad). Plus Dragic isn’t a very good defender. I want 2-way players for our big contracts.
BigCitySid says
As the trading deadline nears, which Laker has the most trade value? The least? Following is one reporter’s opinion:
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/dg0J6?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=los-angeles-lakers
Chearn says
Darius, your analysis of Kelly was excellent.
Aaron, I’m with you please no Dragic particularly for $20 million. Plus, I for one hope the Lakers never make a trade or deal with Phoenix ever again.
Renato, there are tons of players in Europe with similar skills as Kelly; however, the Lakers don’t have scouts. And if the player’s not going to be better might as well retain Kelly.
Another observation is that Kelly has not been able to work out during the summer as he’s been injured. His injury history is more of a concern on his career arc than his ability to improve on the court. Kelly’s missed two summers of individual workouts, two summers of summer league, and two pre-season camps. Causing him to reflect a stagnant margin of development. As long as he remains injury free the remainder of this season and can go into the summer healthy enough for weight-training and offensive and defensive drills he’s categorically worth a return next year.
Lakers fans are pretty quick to pull the trigger on first and second year players whose statistics and on-court errors fail to jibe with their preconceived notions of a player. Sometimes it takes players a few years to decipher the nuances of the NBA. Most players enter the league with a boy’s body /mind and are then asked to play against men. Of course, they’ll struggle playing against grown men. What is worth noting is a player’s willingness to listen to corrections and whether or not they have a hunger for the game, and an intense dedicated work ethic. Those measures are more indicative of NBA success.
Brandon Burkhart says
Robert: I grew up in San Antonio but I’ve been living in LA since 2000, so I’ve seen my share of Laker games over those 15 years. (One of my early experiences as a new Angeleno was watching the news coverage of “celebrating” Lakers fans setting trash fires and flipping over a news van. Quite a culture shock. We just honk our car horns in San Antonio.)
I’ve been watching Laker games to root against them and to trash talk my friends who are Laker fans. Until two years ago, that is. Now I feel sorry for the Lakers and actually root for them. The train wreck is fascinating to watch. I’m obsessed with Lakers Line on 710 ESPN, ever since the D’Antoni era (always knew D’Antoni was a terrible hire, from all the years I watched my Spurs beat his Suns). Listening to depressed Laker fans on 710 is like witnessing the collapse of the Roman Empire.
In short, I know about as much about the Lakers now as any Spurs fan possibly could. I try to attend either the Lakers/Spurs or Clippers/Spurs game once a season (and my Spurs always win, so maybe I’m good luck?).
My hate for the Lakers had primarily stemmed from disliking Kobe, Phil, and Shaq. So of course, now it’s like watching a whole new team without those three. And as I’ve matured, I’ve grown to appreciate Kobe as a competitor, instead of just blindly hating him as a cocky Spurs killer. It helps that Kobe always says nice things about the Spurs; he’s very respectful towards my team. However, I still think of Phil as a smug jerk and I’m enjoying the schadenfreude of his failure in NYC.
Stuart says
If Jim and Mitch use cap space to sign age 30’ish players then all of this pain for the last 2 plus years would have been for nothing. Using last summer as an example – sure Melo would have been a marketing dream but his age and contract would have put the Lakers in the same mess as they are with Kobe. Can you imagine a 32 year old Melo as the cornerstone of the team? It would constantly put them in a position to win now, which is the exact opposite of what this team should be thinking.
Randle, Clarkson and the top five pick give the Lakers three rotational players with a long term horizon. FAs like Greg Monroe, who is 24, will still be a year away from his prime — even if it takes the Lakers three years to get a competitive team on the floor. Someone like Dragic would be 33 in three years and his production and health would likely take a hit.
We should sign a petition to ensure that the FO can’t sign any FAs that are over 28.
rr says
We should sign a petition to ensure that the FO can’t sign any FAs that are over 28.
———
Yeah. I sent an email to Robert talking about this, and I said that Monroe is probably the only UFA whom I would make a big play for if I ran the Lakers. The problem with that, however, is that next year’s pick is only Top-3 protected, so the team could be really bad again and lose the pick.
The fact that a Spurs fan is here talking about how he feels sorry for the Lakers and is rubber-necking ESPN 710 is one of those little anecdotal data points that shows where the team is. For me, this is in the same category as the media coverage of that zany Swaggy P. The Lakers are a joke.
Calvin Chang says
Brandon: Thanks for sharing your views on the Lakers. Very interesting to see what the train wreck looks like from a different angle. I was a Steve Nash fan (from his Santa Clara days) who became a Laker fan after Nashty was traded to LA. Unfortunately, he was already too old and broken down when the Lakers got him. I used to dislike Kobe because I thought he was full of himself. (but always tried to copy his moves) But the past few years, Kobe has opened up and I grew to respect and appreciate his personality and wisdom. Behind that mask of cut-throat competitiveness, he’s actually a very smart guy who understands and respects the game and his opponents. I also admire that he actually learned Spanish and enjoy listening to his efforts to entertain interviews in Spanish.
Big respect to your Spurs. Pop established a winning system and really has them playing the right way.
If I were the Lakers GM, I’d see if Becky Hammon has learned enough from Pop and make a huge splash by making her head coach in a year or two.
rr says
As to Kelly, I think both sides are right.
>Kelly should be playing the 4; Scott is misusing him. At the same time, the FO should never have signed Boozer to begin with, partly because of issues like this perhaps arising, as so many of us said at the time. There was never any reason to have a guy like Boozer on this team. That is of course not Boozer’s fault; Boozer has actually done a nice job this year.
>Kelly’s ceiling IMO is 9th-10th man, and developing him is not a huge deal (which is not to say that they shouldn’t do it). I don’t think that he has Frye’s athletic ability (and Frye has never really been that good anyway) or Anderson’s shooting skills. Anderson was good enough to be in the NBA at 20, which is an important difference between him and Kelly.
As to the system/talent issue, the NBA is a talent league. San Antonio wins because Duncan, Ginobili and Parker have lasted a long time and because the Spurs have acquired an excellent young player in Leonard and a pretty good big in Splitter. That is a nice five-man core.
That said, San Antonio obviously does an excellent job with health/minutes management and injury prevention (I posted a link to an article about injury analytics here several months ago), and with putting players in position to succeed. These things, along with Popovich’s adaptability, which was the subject of an article not too long ago, are all integral to San Antonio’s success.
Brandon Burkhart says
It’s been satisfying seeing the Spurs get some much-delayed love over the past two years. It took beating an organization that people hated more (the LeBron James Miami Superteam) for many casual fans to finally give the Spurs some compliments. My team went from “old floppers” to “they’re fun to watch and Coach Pop is a genius” practically overnight on ESPN message boards, etc.
Being a small market team, we Spurs fans have a persecution complex and have always felt like the hotshot Lakers get all the breaks. Even Coach Pop, who never whines, complained that it wasn’t fair when the Lakers got Pau Gasol. It now feels like the Bizzaro NBA with the Spurs on top and the Lakers in the trash heap. I also had to spend a decade cringing at Lakers fans basking in the glow of Derek Fisher’s 0.4 seconds miracle shot. I literally turned off the TV when Tim Duncan hit a shot to take the lead, sure that the game was over. Then I heard joyful screams erupt from the Lakers fans in the apartment next door, and I was totally confused …
I still have the Sports Illustrated with Dwight Howard and Steve Nash gleefully mugging in their new Laker uniforms on the cover. It’s hilarious to look at it now.
I used to enjoy watching Steve Nash play, but he really screwed the Lakers over and, in my mind at least, completely destroyed his reputation with his moneygrubbing ways over the past year or so.
Brandon Burkhart says
Oh, just to kiss some butt for a second — I really enjoy the intelligent posts at FB&G. I’ve been lurking on here for a couple seasons. It’s my second sports blog stop after Pounding the Rock. Y’all set the bar high, as far as fan discussions go.
rr says
in my mind at least, completely destroyed his reputation with his moneygrubbing ways over the past year or so. Do any of you Laker fans still have warm and fuzzy feelings about ol’ Steve?
—
Nash didn’t do anything wrong, and he was very honest about wanting the money–money to which he was and is contractually entitled. Some Lakers’ fans resent him, which is understandable if misguided, but this is just your Spurs/Suns stuff from the MDA era talking.
But, as the losses pile up, more and more people are starting to focus on the FO, which is where any fan base supporting a 13-40 team with no elite healthy young talent that owes a lot of draft picks, should be looking.
LKK says
“The analytics now show rebounding numbers are not important. “….
Hmmm…. Sorry but I can remember when the Lakers’ failure to secure a defensive rebound allowed Tim Thomas and the Suns to steal a playoff series. The same scenario occurred in the 2013 Finals when Chris Bosh’s offensive rebound allowed Ray Allen to be the hero that sent SA packing. Analytics has its place but broad generalizations never make much sense.
LKK says
@ Chearn…
Great points about being patient with young players, especially when they have been injured. Not long ago, Stephon Curry was “oft injured and fragile.” Now he’s an MVP candidate. John Wall was “immature and didn’t get it.” Now, he’s in the conversation as the league’s best point. Sometimes the wine needs a little aging.:)
Calvin Chang says
Brandon: Rest assured that basketball purists appreciate and respect the genius of Pop and the humility and wisdom of Duncan, Manu and Tony. Great job beating Lebron last season. My wish for the Lakers and Byron is that they learn the importance of floor spacing, corner 3s, and quick ball movement. Hopefully, Kobe can return healthy next season and play a triple-double style with a pass-first mentality. I don’t want to see him go out with a 25 win team on his last season.
LKK says
Dragic is a nice player. I don’t think he’s $20M/yr. nice, though. OKC’s Reggie Jackson is also a nice player. Younger, too.
LKK says
I would say this is a significant development:
…….From Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports:
LeBron James has been elected first Vice President of the NBPA, league source tells Yahoo Sports.
This moves James into senior leadership of the Players Association. Voting is underway at this hour in an NBPA meeting in New York.
NBPA president Chris Paul had been pushing LeBron James to join him in No. 2 spot in union, sources tell Yahoo. Significant 1-2 punch……
Wow! If this is true, it’s a strong move for the players. They really seem to be entrenching themselves for the next CBA. Stay tuned!
rr says
The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers are among many teams expected to try to persuade the Phoenix Suns to part with star guard Goran Dragic before Thursday’s NBA trade deadline, according to league sources.
—
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12320318/houston-rockets-trying-work-trade-phoenix-suns-goran-dragic-sources
Robert says
Brandon: Good for you that you did not u did not switch teams when you moved. I am of the opinion that you should never switch teams. I am a Laker for life. I think I can pay a better compliment to the Spurs by telling you that I despise them, and I savored the playoff victories over SA (only exceeded by Finals victories over Boston). I always root against SA in the playoffs unless they were to play Boston. Take all of that as a compliment. I like the fact that you said you thought MD was a terrible hire from the beginning. If you have been lurking hear for 2 years, then I need not tell you my views on that subject. By the way, everyone speaks about Pop, but I will compliment Peter Holt. Without Peter Holt staying out of the way, there could be no Pop or RC Buford. What is Peter Holt’s title? Is it Super Executive President in charge of all things basketball in San Antonio? I am thinking it is not : )
lil pau says
Re: the Dragic rumors, what could we possibly have that Phx would want? Our assets, as I see them, in decreasing order (obviously subjective):
Randle
1st round pick from Phx
Clarkson
1st round pick from Hou
Davis
Nash’s expiring
Lin’s expiring (very tough with poison pill as others have said)
2nd round picks
Black
Hill
Kelly
Ellington
Swaggy (would be higher based on skillset but a lot of time and $ left on his contract)
I’m intentionally omitting Kobe as well as players who I can’t imagine anyone coveting (Price, Wes, Sacre)
I can’t imagine we could make this work. What does Phx need? Maybe I should be thinking 3 team, which wouldn’t be allowed here and is too hard to surmise anyway, but I can’t imagine a straight up deal. am i missing something?
—
Brandon: intelligent, non-baiting fans of other teams are always welcome here. personally, I find it a welcome breath of fresh air. I consider myself a Lakers fan first and a basketball fan second, but I have never been able to summon any animosity towards the Spurs. TD, Manu and later Leonard are too likable and their style of play is so easy on the eyes. Plus Pop is a crack-up, the last old school curmudgeon since Sloan retired. I know many here disagree…
Craig W. says
Count me among the fans that think Goran Dragic is a very good player, but not deserving of a max contract and cornerstone of the Laker franchise – especially when I see a couple more years of development, when Goran would be 32 or so.
Stuart says
While Dragic is a year younger than I thought (he will be 29 this off season) I don’t understand why the Lakers would pursue him. With our pick this summer we will have a core (Randle, top 5 pick and Clarkson) that will be 22 and younger. By the time that core gets it and we fill in around them Dragic will be at the back end of his five year deal (assuming we sign him after trading for him).
I don’t do that deal. We are years away from competing. You’d go after Dragic (or Rondo for that matter) if you were close. The Lakers are not. Reggie Jackson is a better player and he’s only 24.
J C says
One of the best threads ever.
As usual (lately) FBG rises far above the level of the team it supports.
So many interesting viewpoints expressed here it’s tough to address all of them.
Re Dragic, he looks very good from where we’re currently sitting. i expect the FO to land at least one decent FA this summer and he may be the best available. I don’t agree with those who suggest he’s too old. The Lakers need good players, pronto.
I’m not as familiar with Monroe’s game but if he’s a young big man who knows how to pass the rock well, he sounds like a great catch too.
Brandon, as a Laker lifer I’ve always enjoyed and appreciated the Spurs from afar. Especially Manu! Welcome.
Todd says
I hope ESPNs Stein is grabbing at straws when links the Lakers with Dragic. Here is how this plays out. Jim trades for Dragic and proclaims that the Lakers have found their PG moving forward. Dragic elevates the Lakers’ play and we finish strong — so strong that we lose our top 5 pick (any wonder why the Suns were open to dealing Dragic to a division rival).
Jim, trying to save face, signs Dragic to a max 5 year deal which means he will be under contract through his age 34 season. Next year with Dragic and a healthy Randle the Lakers finish 11th in the west. In summary we lose our top 5 pick this year gain a pick in the high teens next year.
Dragic plays well for 2 years before injuries and age begin to take their toll. The Lakers miss the playoffs for the rest of the decade.
Aaron says
rr,
Clearly an attempt by the Suns to get more from the Rockets.
Aaron says
LKK,
I guess you need to re read my post. You clearly didn’t get the point Darius and I made. The gross stat of overall rebounds by a player isnt a great indicator of how effective he is at helping your team rebound.
rr,
100 percent correct on Nash. IM also happier with the FO decision making when it came out they wanted Sessions over Nash but Ramon didn’t want to play off ball with Kobe. I still was against the move at the time as I thought they could have gotten a better PG for what they gave up. But at least it wasn’t as bad.
LKK says
Aaron, I read it. I just disagree with the premise.
Aaron says
LKK,
What do you think my premise is? Rebounding is very important. I’m saying someone’s rebounding totals is not the best way to judge how good of a rebounder they are (for many reasons). It’s like judging someone’s scoring ability on PPG. I don’t understand where you disagree with me yet.
I get the impression people don’t know what analytics are. And because there is a little math involved it scares them away. Again… Analytics isn’t as good yet as the Aaron eye test. But it’s much better than it was ten years ago and five years ago as a way to show people that don’t have the Aaron eye what exactly is happening on the floor.
rr says
I can’t see any deal for Dragic happening, either from the PHX perspective or the Lakers perspective. If it were to somehow occur, it would just be a sign that the Lakers FO is jittery and too worried about internet noise. I think most of the fanbase just wants to take the lumps for another 29 games and then focus on the draft.
Houston is another matter, though. That I could see; Dragic can play off-ball enough to work with Harden, and I think that Morey and McHale probably really want to win a playoff series.
G says
I prefer Reggie Jackson over Dragic. Not as good offensively and playmaking skills needs work….but he young and has more upside as a two way player. Plus he’ll be a lot cheaper and the left over money can be used to pick up a solid wing player…..If we’re lucky enough to land okafor or towns, the Lakers have a chance to be competitive next year. Don’t trade for Dragic Mitch!!!
LKK says
@Aaron…
I disagree with your phrase “analytics now”. 50 years ago, Red Auerbach discounted the fact that a player might put up a great sounding statistic like 10 rebounds in a game where 7 of them were easy gets off of missed free throws. All I’m saying is that statistics must be taken in context. Combined with a discerning and knowledgeable eye, stats or analytics are great. I just don’t think that one has to have an advanced degree in NBA analytics to understand a player’s value or to appreciate a player who has a nose for the ball and is a good rebounder.
Azzemoto says
My thoughts exactly Todd. Make the wrong move here and we get set back 10 yrs
Aaron says
LKK,
Perfect. So as I thought we agree one hundred percent and you didn’t undertand what I was trying to say. That’s the point of analytics now. To put stats in its proper context instead of just saying because someone grabs ten rebounds a game they are a good rebounder.
Robert says
“Make the wrong move here and we get set back 10 yrs” Indeed, and this is after the 5 years we have already wasted. This is why the FO conversation is paramount even though some do not like to discuss it. Debating what positions people play or who should get minutes is fun, however it does not have the impact of big moves like getting/losing DH, trading for Nash, hiring/firing coaches, signing huge contracts, or making top draft selections. Our next big moves are the pick and what we do or do not do in the summer of 15 FA. I do know that as of right now, the same people will be making those moves who made our last half dozen or so major moves. I am hoping somehow for better performance.
R says
Well Robert hope is all we’ve got. At least we aren’t Raiders fans.
Craig W. says
With no recent moves and absolutely no comments from inside, just how does the fan-base know how the front office thinks? Hopefully the Laker braintrust learned at least as much as the ‘talking heads’ did from the recent moves. IMO – to presume they learn nothing from recent events only exposes your impatience that nothing is happening quickly enough. To listen to Magic’s outcries is equally nonsensical.
You don’t have to be a big front office supporter to recognize the inability to see anything good is as much a comment on the fan as what the fan is commenting about.
rr says
just how does the fan-base know how the front office thinks?
—
I don’t really care how they think except for how it is reflected in what they do. Here is what they have done lately:
1. Kobe’s deal
2. Not find a way to trade any of Pau, Hill or Kaman
3. Young’s deal
4. Hill’s deal with its high price, team option, and its tradekicker
5. Lin trade
6. Signing Boozer–whom they cannot trade
7. Signing Davis
8. Drafting Randle
9. Getting Clarkson
10. Hiring Scott
As to the Magic stuff, there is now a pattern established:
1. Magic goes off on Jim Buss
2. High-Profile Lakers Internet types Blog and Tweet angrily about it
What Magic says is pretty much irrelevant unless it reflects Mitch or Jeanie’s opinions as well. I seriously doubt that any FA is going to say, “I would have gone to the Lakers, but Magic’s comments on First Take scared me off.” Anybody worrying about what Magic says is like a guy watching his house burn to the ground while complaining about his mouthy neighbor.
Also, notice that your post has no specifics or content; you are simply complaining again about stuff other people say that bothers you. There is a reason for that: the Lakers have the worst talent/roster situation in the NBA. As long as that is the case, the Jim Buss FO is going to take criticism and is going to be hard to defend.
Finally, if Jim is actually worried about what Magic is saying, Jim has some options: invite Magic for a chat/lunch, look into getting him on the payroll as a consultant, etc. If he’s not worried about what Magic is saying, he should just ignore it and focus on the deadline and the draft.
rr says
You can add:
11. Decided not to bid on RFAs in Summer 2014.
Darius Soriano says
RR,
I disagree with this:
“What Magic says is pretty much irrelevant unless it reflects Mitch or Jeanie’s opinions as well.”
Magic is a franchise icon and has an opinion that a large set of fans seem to respect. His continuous piling on Jim Buss contributes to the negative perception of Jim’s ability which undermines him publicly. While we’ll never know how much (if at all) this negatively impacts Jim’s ability to do his job well, we know it doesn’t help him. And if it’s not helping, what’s the point?
Magic is entitled to his opinion. But as someone who swears his loyalty to the franchise and that he wants to the team to do well, he should be making the connection that his public displays of questioning the VP of Basketball Operations’ doesn’t help the team’s cause to actually do what he says he’d want them to do.
So, calling it “irrelevant” seems like a huge stretch.
Robert says
Darius: I disagree with rr also however for different reasons. Magic represents huge groups of us Laker loyalists who feel Jim is not the right man for the job. If Jim is actually impacted by Magic and others saying this, then this proves he does not have a thick enough skin and this is another reason he is not qualified. This is no different than criticizing a politician. Those supporting him say it is unpatriotic to criticize someone in high office, while those doing the criticizing just want someone else in. Magic clearly does not see this ship righted with Jim at the helm and I agree with him. Therefore what Magic says is very relevant. As to the rest of rr’s post, it is right on target as usual.
rr says
Darius,
One mental leap that FO defenders, both here and around the net, IMO have never been able to make: there are people, and Magic may be one of them, who deeply believe that the way to get the Lakers moving forward again is to either
a) Remove Jim Buss from his current position entirely
or
b) Pressure him to bring in some more help immediately
When you look at comment boards hammering Magic for this, there are always presumptions that Magic is either trying to set up some kind of coup or is just an old clown running his mouth. These people never suggest that maybe he says these things because he is worried about the franchise and thinks that saying stuff like this in public, is, in fact, the way to help.
As to how relevant it is, sorry, I disagree on that. I don’t think FAs care much about what Magic says, and any FA with multiple offers who actually seriously considers coming here will presumably visit the Lakers and meet Jim, Jeanie, Byron, Mitch et al. I think it is safe to presume that those decisions will be made based on money, PT, and roster construction, and it will be up to Jim and Co. to make those pitches and deal with Magic if the topic comes up. And like I said, if Jim is worried about it, then he should try some more outreach.
And as to fans…so, let’s say Magic backed Jim in public. Some people would say, “That’s nice. Good to see Magic is loyal. ” But the team would still be 13-40, it would still owe Kobe 25M next year, it would still owe Nick Young money through 2018, it would still owe draft picks to PHX and ORL, Julius Randle would still be in rehab, and it would still have no front-line talent. Those are Jim Buss’s real problems, and the criticism will lessen only if and when he starts solving them.
Darius Soriano says
RR,
If Magic doesn’t understand that by undermining Jim publicly he is at least potentially doing harm, he is not smart. I, for one, do not believe that a person as successful as Magic on & off the court could not make this connection. Also, it’s not what you or I think matters to free agents. It’s not even a matter if it actually does hurt Jim’s ability to recruit. It’s a matter of it even being a possibility & then asking why continue to do it if he is the guy in charge? Whether it’s to pressure him to do well or to resign, doesn’t matter, if it has potential to do harm it’s probably bad.
Robert, I don’t care about how Jim feels about any of this, per se. It’s a matter if what I said to RR. If it in any way hurts the team’s ability to improve, then it’s a problem. I don’t see how this is arguable unlesd you’d rathet the team stink just to get Jim Buss to no longet have his job. I don’t doubt some feel this way, but if they do it’s bettet to say thay rather than act like you want the team to do well. Because if the latter were the case, doing anything that could potentially undermine Jim wouldn’t be on the table.
Robert says
Darius: Thanks for the response. Just like with tanking, I and many have mixed emotions. I root for the Lakers even though I know losses are better. I think you have mentioned this paradox in some of your writings. The same is true with Jim. I really feel he is bad for the Lakers, so while I root for him and us, yes there is a sinister side of me that wants all to fall apart so he leaves, thereby leaving us better off in the long run. It is totally parallel to the tanking argument. This is not question of loyalty or undermining, it is a question of what is good for the Lakers. And like the fact that there are multiple political parties all of which can by loyal to the country, there are multiple opinions about the Lakers that are all still 100% devoted to the team. Jim loves the Lakers and so do I. Neither of us are the right man to be the head of basketball operations.
rr says
If Magic doesn’t understand that by undermining Jim publicly he is at least potentially doing harm, he is not smart
—
Well, Magic may believe that the long-term harm of the FO continuing to be set up and run as it is and decisions being made as he (Magic) believes that they are being made far outweighs any short-term harm, to FA recruitment or otherwise, that may come from criticizing Jim in public.
You said a couple of weeks ago that you still believe in the FO’s ability to evaluate and get players; you just don’t like their coaching hires. Some people don’t agree with that–they think that the verdict is in on Jim Buss, and he cannot and will not be able to get the job done, now or ever. Magic may be in that group.
I personally am not; I have not entirely written off the Jim Buss FO. But the evidence against it is mounting, and Jim needs some stuff to start going his way.
Craig W. says
Actually the evidence that Jim Buss doesn’t know what he is doing is not mounting. Nothing has gone on since the beginning of the year – and IMO before – that would indicate Jim is particularly bad at his job. What has happened is that some vocal Laker fans and the ‘talking heads’ – always an intelligent group – have decided it is time to continually ‘pile on’ the Laker front office.
Magic is a part of this group and this only diminishes both the front office and Magic himself.
If the Lakers make a trade or a signing that the fans don’t like then, by all means, voice your opinion. Continually banging on the organization because they don’t 1) advertise what they are thinking/planning and 2) don’t respond to all the inane comments floating around – like from Magic – would seem the path a Laker hater (i.e. Celtic fan) would take. How about a breather in all the vitriol until the organization actually does something?