Will today be the day that a little bit of luck interjects into the lives of Lakers’ fans? We can only hope.
Really, hope is all we can do. This isn’t like a big game where actual performance of professional athletes will determine the outcome. I remember the lead up to game 7 in the 2010 Finals and being a wreck, wondering if any one of a thousand variables would shift the game towards the Celtics. This is not that.
Tonight’s outcome will be determined by a machine spitting out numbered lottery balls to create a number sequence that determines the winner. That’s it.
No adjustments or pep talks or random role player performance will tilt the result. This doesn’t make it less stressful, but it does make it different. We’d all feel somewhat better if the Lakers’ pick would be theirs for sure, but, alas, we all know that is not the case.
For now, though, let’s detach ourselves from the anxiousness and review some of the key numbers and the odds of where the Lakers’ pick will land:
- The Lakers have an 82.8% chance of retaining their pick
- Odds the Lakers stay at #4: 9.9%
- Odds the Lakers drop to #5: 35.1%
- Odds the Lakers move up to #3: 13.3%
- Odds the Lakers move up to #2: 12.6%
- Odds the Lakers move up to #1: 11.9
Of course, if the Lakers have an 82.8% chance of keeping their pick, they have a 17.2% chance of losing it to the 76ers. Those odds break down like this:
- Odds the Lakers fall to #6: 16.0%
- Odds the Lakers fall to #7: 1.2%
Of note from all these numbers: The single most likely individual result is that the Lakers fall to #5. The next likely is that the Lakers fall to #6 (WELP). After that, however, there is a better chance that the Lakers move up to #’s 3, 2, or 1 (YES, PLEASE) than stay at #4.
So, based on the above, if you take comfort in numbers, you are still stressing the hell out. Yeah, I actually think I liked the feeling before the 2010 Game 7 better than this.
We’ll be back later with the results. ‘Til then, don’t mind me, I’ll just be sitting over there in the corner sweating this thing out.
Warren Wee Lim says
Prediction time.
The Lakers have had a stroke of bad luck in the last couple of seasons that some good luck is bound to happen. Part of that good luck was Jordan Clarkson and him taking the 1st step towards stardom.
The next part, is very crucial. Julius Randle, who we were robbed off last season due to injury, is bound to play better with a Jordan Clarkson beside him. He attacks and he is very similar to Lamar Odom in terms of pushing the ball on the break. Him running beside Clarkson would be a thing of beauty.
The last part, is simply keeping the pick. As Darius mentioned there is a 17.2% chance we lose the pick. That would be a disaster.
By retaining the pick, even with just the 5th (worst possible we can drop where we keep it) can assure us one of: Towns, Okafor, Russell, Mudiay, Winslow. Assuming its 5th and its Winslow, well consider me a very happy camper. The only name I don’t like among the four is Mudiay. That’s because I don’t like the Brandon Jennings route of getting to the NBA while not dominating in Europe (or China) anyway.
Anonymous says
Never thought I’d be so jazzed to watch the NBA lottery…. haha…
–Laker for life–
devean george forever says
What I don’t get about the anxiety over losing the 1st round pick this year is if that happens it will be because the Lakers would have gotten the 6th or 7th pick. Which would be nice to have of course but that would likely mean the Lakers would not have received a game-changing player anyway. And there’s a decent chance the Lakers will be bad enough to try their lottery luck next year when they definitely will keep the pick. Also, I haven’t heard that this draft is much better than next year’s draft. So hope for the best Lakers fans, but don’t stress out too much if it doesn’t go our way.
R says
Of the lakers miss out on win, place or show they must make a pitch for DeAndre Jordan. I know, I know why on earth would he take a pay cut to move across the haul to a much worse situation? Well, if a miracle occurrd and they snagged Jordan, they better find some elite FT shooters to surround him.
Craig W. says
And hire Rick Barry.
david h says
hey darius: pretty funny; picturing a puddle there in the corner; figuratively speaking of course.
in the event lakers retain one of the top 4 lottery picks; with coach Byron scott present tonite, then come June 25th’s nba draft day could once again prove eventful and telling as to the direction the laker organization can begin to take for the upcoming laker season – 2016.
by tonite, bloggers here can begin to give their take as to whom they would want the front office to choose come draft day. in the interim, depends goes a long way in defining the moment.
Go lakers !!
lil pau says
I woke up in the middle of the night completely anxious about this, then decided i was completely out of my mind until I went to drop off my daughter at school this morning and some other dad was wearing his lucky elgin baylor jersey.
we need this pick so bad which is why I thought darius was a little tough in the last thread on the poster who began a discussion about game theory and the possibility of dropping down for a guaranteed pick. I know it’s not going to happen, but I can see the argument for it, especially if one feels there’s not a huge talent drop off after pick 2 or 3.
we’re due for some good luck: Clarkson, Randle, and maybe Black were step one. This is an enormous game-changing step two. GO LAKERS!
The Penberthy is Mightier says
Don’t have good faith knowing that Byron Scott is representing us instead of Jordan Clarkson or Julius Randle. But I’ll be wearing every Laker jersey I have for good juju today.
All odds aside, it should be noted that in the last 31 lottery appearances, the team with the #4 worst record:
Stays at #4 2 out of 31 times (6.45%)
Wins the Lottery 3 out of 31 (9.68%)
Gets the 2nd pick 2 out of 31 (6.45%)
Gets the 3rd pick 5 out of 31 (16.13%)
Gets the 5th pick 9.5 out of 31 (30.65%)
Gets the 6th pick 8.5 out of 31 (27.42%
Gets the 7th pick 1 out of 31 (3.23%)
(Half numbers are years 2 teams were tied for #4)
So if we’re going off of previous lotteries, Laker fans should be more worried since the #4 drops to #6 or #7 roughly 3 out of 10 times. Or maybe the law of averages should balance out and we should move into the top 3! Either way, keep your fingers crossed and pray to St. Chick for a good pick!
R says
Craig W. May 19, 2015 at 11:11 am
“And hire Rick Barry.”
—–
Excellent idea! Think he’ll play for the veteran’s minimum?
R says
Before Game 7 of the 2010 Finals …. man o man that was tough to deal with.
Pre game, I was driving around, looking for a good spot to watch the game with some co-workers in the Bay Area, most but not all of them were rooting for the Celtics (I know, what a bunch of creeps).
At one point, I was in a shopping mall parking lot, heard a soft plopping sound, then the sounds of at least a hundred seagulls. A hawk had dropped a pigeon and the gulls were circling, eager to take the kill away from the hawk. I struggled to find meaning to this apparent omen …
… I ended up yelling my head off in a small bar peopled by not terribly pleased basketball fans as the clock ticked off the final seconds and it was clear the Lakers had shaken the monkey off their back.
… I wish this lottery thing was over.
P. Ami says
Today is a big, big day. Losing this pick would be a huge blow. That said, if we keep the pick, there are a number of potential impact players. Towns, Mudiay, Herzonja, Russell, Okafor, Turner, Winslow, Dekker… I’m not saying these are all franchise players. I do think this draft will have 2-3 franchise guys with a chance of maybe 6-7 guys being top-tier players. Somebody picking at the 5 spot will either nab an eventual all-star or will have passed on one. I promise you that.
Aaron says
To be honest… since I always follow the money… I’m not too worried the Lakers are going to lose their pick.
“Tonight’s outcome will be determined by a machine spitting out numbered lottery balls to create a number sequence that determines the winner. That’s it.”
And that machines is programmed by a business that wants the Lakers to be good. And the small market owners aren’t the programmers.
bryan S. says
lil pau: Thank you for your comments re: my post on trading down. I was dismayed by Darius’ dismissive take. Believe me, I don’t want to look smart on this one. And yes, the prospects 6-12 are starter material and have similar upsides.
Aaron: I want to believe you. I agree the NBA has a history that isn’t above scrutiny. But I could easily entertain other conclusions than the “follow the money” course. To whit, for the first time in league history there are many deep pocketed small market owners who got into the game for ego as much as anything else. They want to win and have reached a critical voting mass: the veto being the prime example. These guys brought Stern to heel. Further, the Cavaliers jump to top pick following LeBron’s return is statistically defying. These facts should give one pause.
R says
Aaron, I’m not convinced the powers that be are all that concerned with the lakers being good. They are all about spreading the wealth among the owners. These playoffs have been plenty successful without the Lakers’ participation.
Aaron says
Bryan,
Most owners only care about money. That’s why Harden is no longer OKC even with a billionair owner.
R,
The better the Lakers are the more money is spread around the league in TV/luxury tax revenue. Remember what pissed the owners off after the CP3 deal was the Lakers would be paying less money in luxury tax.
R says
Well, it is possible to flip heads (or tails) 5, 6 or 7 times in a row, and the odds of the next flip being heads or tails remain 50/50. The coin doesn’t “know” it’s past history and adjust its behavior accordingly. Likewise, if the ping pong ball process is on the up and up, nevertheless a team could still win the top slot two or more times in a row. That sort of result is not uncommon. In fact, stock mutual funds often tout their superior coin flipping ability!
Ko says
If they don’t get s top 5 pick I am going to Steve Nash’s house and toilet paper it. Also I am wearing my Kwame Brown uniform for good luck.
barry_g says
man, the lakers losing their lottery pick tonight is really gonna screw w/ the rest of my week. pls, bball gods, let us have this one!
BigCitySid says
– @ D, “Will today be the day that a little bit of luck interjects into the lives of Lakers’ fans? We can only hope.” If you’re speaking about moving up to the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick you’re correct. No luck needed to stay in the top 5, odds are on our side.
– Point to consider: if Randle played last season and was any good, we wouldn’t be having this discussion…Lakers wouldn’t have one of the five worst records, thus wouldn’t have a 1st round pick …unless he was a bust.
– I like Mudiay at four if both bigs are gone and he’still available. Takes a lot of maturity for a 18 – 19 year old to go to another country half way around the planet, with a different culture, different language, different foods. Takes a special guy.
Chibi says
We did it.
Shaun says
Yaaassssss top 3 FU philly
Chris J says
So far, so good… Knicks fans must be ready to riot.
Shaun says
Yaaassssssssss #2
Tim says
Lakers get the #2 pick.
Lil pau says
Sweet!!!!!
G says
Nice
Lil pau says
Glen Taylor: vampire?
Ko says
Thank you. Hope is alive!
don ford says
#2 ? YAY !
Joel says
Easiest pick ever.
the other Stephen says
GREATSUCCESS.GIF
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r13riaRKGo0
Shaun says
Sooooooo Okafor? ….. thoughts everyone?
Anyone think minnesote would trade #1 for 2 and 27 or 34?
Philly is drafting russel for sure – mudiay to new york
I think having randle and okafor is kind of a bust for us … both have bad ft%, limited defensive ability. .. all offense
anyone think we trade down if we could get a killer player and a good pick?
If only the knicks or philly had better assets we cohld drop 1-2 spots and pick something up but both teams have nothing too offer
I think its a lock that we trade 27 and 34 to move up amd get someone higher in the 1st
We didnt lose it …. amazing
grumpy says
Woohoo!
Vasheed says
Well at number 2 assuming Towns is off the board I would pick Russell. I think the combo of Okafor with Randle would be horrible. I would also strongly consider trading down for WCS.
Busboys4me says
Missed it by one…. Dang!!! Wanted Karl-Anthony Towns. If Okafar had dropped and we were at four then we would take him, but I agree with Shaun two bad defenders does not a champion make.