First of all, happy new year to all of you. I’ve said this before, but those of you who come to this site for Lakers’ information and analysis, contribute in the comments, and generally support our efforts are what make me running this site rewarding. For your support — be it continued or new — I thank you all.
As for today’s game, the Lakers are back in Los Angeles after a three game road trip which saw them go 1-2. Losses to the Grizzlies and Hornets were almost all but forgotten, however, after that win against the Celtics in the trip’s final game. That win has the potential to spark a little run of wins, too, as the Lakers enter a (somewhat) friendly part of their schedule. After playing the 76ers today, they play the free-falling Suns (who just lost Eric Bledsoe for the season), and have 6 of their next 7 games at home.
It is not inconceivable the Lakers could play the Warriors on Tuesday owners of a 3 game winning streak. Sure, it’s a bit sad to discuss a three game win streak as a big deal, but considering the team has 6 wins all season, it would be their best stretch all season by a wide margin.
Of course, no win is a given for this team so let’s not get ahead of ourselves. After all, the Lakers have already lost to the Sixers, giving them their first win of the season. Further, the Lakers will be short handed tonight:
Kobe will not play tonight vs. Philly because of a sore right shoulder.
— Mike Bresnahan (@Mike_Bresnahan) January 1, 2016
Missing Kobe is not a minor thing. Not with how he’s been playing in the last few weeks and how much he’s been able to help control the flow of the game when he’s been on the floor. NBA games can often turn on a key 5-10 minute stretch and Kobe has been instrumental in the team’s recent wins by helping impact the game in those stretches. Him being out doesn’t just mean finding a player or two to help fill the void in production, but to have someone who can impact the game by drawing the defense’s attention and be a ballast for the team’s attack.
While it might be a lot to ask of one of the young players to actually fill this role, this is an opportunity for one (or more) of the Russell, Randle, or Clarkson trio to make his mark on this game. All three have the ability to positively impact games for short stretches and not having Kobe in the lineup gives them more leeway to try and seize the reins and do just that.
The other key to getting a win versus the Sixers will be managing the pace and winning the battle of the three point line. Philly isn’t particularly good at many things (that’s how you only win 3 games while losing 31), but they are 11th in steals, 1st in blocks, and 6th in 3-point field goal attempts on the year. This team has the ability to create turnovers and will try to exploit openings around the arc. Considering the Lakers can be sloppy in their three point defense and can struggle in transition defense at times, these are areas they will need extra focus in.
Ultimately, though, there is no more of a winnable game than one against Philly. Despite them already beating the Lakers this year, they are the worst team in the league, record wise, for a reason. This is a game the Lakers should be looking forward to — for revenge and to get their first 2-game win streak of the year. Let’s see if they can get it.
Where you can watch: 7:30pm start time on TWC Sportsnet. Also listen on ESPN Radio 710AM Los Angeles.
tom rickard says
Actually since 76’s got Smith their play has improved a lot, not only did they get much need help at pg, but finally a little bit of veteran leadership.
Mitchell Johnson says
Great post. I believe the Lakers will not only get the win, but Deangelo will have his best game of the season.
Brian Z says
The point guard matchup between Ish Smith, one of Philadelphias newest additions, and D’angelo Russell will also be intriguing. Both of these young players are able to improve their teammates games while they are on the floor. Like Smith, Russell also has the ability to make consistent passes or hit the 3.
Jim C. says
Pretty pleased that Kobe will be out this game personally.
Laker home fans will have plenty of extra opportunities to see him play. Philly is a weak team that the youngsters have a chance to put up big stats against to pad their season averages. And if Kobe just happens to not be there for a five to ten minute stretch that costs the Lakers the game, well, that’s not an entirely bad thing either. It basically counts as catching up two games on Philly since it locks the tiebreaker to the 76ers if they end up with tied records at the end of the year.
Really, this is one of those games where there’s no real point to Kobe playing, and a lot of upside to him not playing.
Not going to lie. I’m hoping for big stats from the youngsters (including BIG MINUTES) and a Laker loss in this one.Call it sacrilege if you want, but this ain’t Boston here. Finding a way to add 10% to the chance of keeping their top-3 pick isn’t a bad outcome.
And if the Lakers happen to win? Well, a win is a win and that’s worth being happy over too.
Really the only thing that will make me unhappy in this game is if Byron Scott logs heavy minutes for the veterans plus a gimpy Nance while Russell and Randle get about 22 minutes apiece.
KO says
Well guess I can’t blame it on 2015.
KevTheBold says
Thus far, Russell’s game is off. I suppose the Okafor comparison pressure is not working in his favor. If so, he needs to get used to it, and either block it out, or learn to use it as fuel.
KO says
Lakers undefeated when Slow Roy plays less minutes then Nance and Bass.
Its called a fast break offense.
Fern says
Hey Byron, two game winning streak, two as two middle fingers..
KevTheBold says
Not a pretty game, but revenge is always sweet.
Thank goodness for Lou, Clarkson & Randle being on tonight enough to get the job done.
DAR, had a setback in shooting and turnovers, but helped out in assists, rebounds and even a block.
Good to see Nance back on that ankle, and his hustle play helped as well.
All in all, a great beginning to the new year !
Hoping to see Tarik, and maybe even Upshaw one day soon.
Fern says
i would blow a gasket if we lose this one…
Pat says
For Ben Simmons sake, you better hope that the ping pong balls don’t fall Philly’s
way.
Fulofunk says
Final stats for Lou W. looked ok, Hibbert’s were dismal, but it’s getting increasingly harder to watch both get so many minutes. Not sayin I have much of an IQ, but it doesn’t take much of one to see that minutes need to be used better. This was an ugly game and even though a win is a win, it did not feel very good. We can play so much better…..just sayin.
KevTheBold says
Agree it was an unpalatable, and not at all satisfying meal. Then too, our pick just faded a bit further into the foggy mist.
However, from the vantage of developing a winning mindset, losing twice to the worst team in the league, would have shouted damaging echoes of doubt, through the chambers of potential champions.
As well, it’s good omen to start a new year off on the right foot.
KevTheBold says
This is the best play of the play of the night, and worth the price of admission.
http://www.insidesocal.com/lakers/2016/01/02/lakers-dangelo-russell-throws-behind-the-head-pass-to-julius-randle/
A glimpse of our amazing potential future, and solid reason for optimism !
Anonymous says
Russell’s pass to Randle was sweet.
Clay Bertrand says
The Lakers now have 2 fewer wins than the Nets……..TWO. The only thing worse than losing our pick would be losing our pick AND THE CELTICS moving up via the Nets pick. We could have another win against the Kings this week…..maybe even the Suns before that and then we have a ton of games at home. LOSING the pick altogether looks VERY possible……
Todd says
This is where Jim’s leadership falls flat. Chasing meaningless wins is fools gold. Yet here we are — vets who won’t be part of the future are helping secure victories that only push the future further away.
The FO should move Williams, Bass, Young and if possible Hibbert.
stats says
Todd – Agree with for all but Bass. He’s not young, but he’s playing well even out of position. He hustles and has shown versatility. I’d keep him around. For Young, for every time I think he’s turned a corner, like his defense in the MN game, he regresses back to boneheadedness — witness the ill-considered three early in the clock near the end of the game last night. Just stupid. My wife figured I’d gone nuts yelling at him while we were up double digits. 🙂 In fact, I’d even be ok with keeping Lou, so long as he is used sparingly/effectively.
I’m hoping they’ll move Hibbert. Seems like a good dude, works hard, etc., but just too slow. In another thread, Lil Pau was kind enough to set me straight on his potential desirability with an expiring contract. (Thanks, Lil Pau!). Let’s deal him now, because I can’t see resigning him next season… goodness knows we don’t want Sacre starting, but to me he’s improved enough that we don’t need Hibbert as bench insurance.
Robert says
Todd – this is not directed at you – as you know I often agree with you. However, this board is just like the front office. One day we are worried about losses and how the coach is allowing our players to learn losing ways, then we win a couple games and we are worried about the pick. In the summer, people were talking about “playoffs” and a surprising team, and then 2 weeks into the season, the tank talk started. We talk about developing youngsters, yet some lauded the signings of Lou, Nick, Hibbert and others. The board mimics the FO – no consistency and no plan. And we are where we are.
KevTheBold says
@Todd, this win out of all, is anything but meaningless: That is if the internal pride of our young and impressionable core means anything to you.
To throw it away chasing a lotto ball, not only damages our goal to develop a winning culture, but sends a message to our kids that we don’t consider their future potential adequate for the job.
One look at Philly, tells the story of how chasing draft picks above all other considerations, leads to rot & ruin.
Todd says
I am just being pragmatic. If the goal is to win and be truly competitive then we need more talent. I am not confident that free agency will be beneficial and without another draft pick then we are looking at only organic improvement for next year with filler for the roster because 2017 free agency will be our only hope for an infusion of real talent.
In my mind this season is lost in terms of what Jeanie, Jim and Mitch hold to, ‘We compete for championships.’ Then finishing with the fourth worst record versus the second worst record is not the moral victory that I take pride in. This team is simply not talented enough to win.
I have always had a ‘let’s not beat around the bush’ approach. If there’s pain involved, and rebuilding is painful — then let’s get it over with as soon as possible. Finishing with the second worst record gives us a 55% of keeping the pick. That goes down to 45% if we finish with the third worst.
My gut says that the fear of bottoming out is going to impede our ability to get back to the top. The cap goes up but so do players salaries. My fear is that this FO will get impatient and spend space on the wrong players (eg: Melo and Aldridge). It’s hard to get out of finishing 6th – 10th once you are caped out.
Look, the FO created this mess. I’m just saying they need to have the balls to finish it. We need one more foundational draft pick. I sincerely believe that to be true.
Mid-Wilshire says
Todd,
You bring up an important topic: the fact that the Lakers need “one more foundational draft pick” and, as a result, must do everything in their power to secure it (i.e., lose as many games as possible so as to hopefully retain their draft pick).
I would caution you, however, about thinking that this important piece is necessarily available through the draft. You see, the draft is a crap shoot. Anything can happen. A few days ago I posted a note on FB&G that cited the 2014 NBA draft. As a reminder, the top 6 picks from that draft were as follows:
1) Andrew Wiggins
2) Jabari Parker
3) Joel Embiid
4) Aaron Gordon
5) Dante Exum
6) Marcus Smart
Number 7, of course, was our own Julius Randle. So, out of those top 6 picks, which ones, other than Wiggins, would you say are “foundational”? The jury is still out on Jabari Parker. But right now he seems to be a nice player for the future perhaps; but he is certainly not the next Karl Malone. Embiid may never play for all we know. (I hope he does.) Gordon, Exum (who is injured), and Smart are struggling merely to get playing time.
The point is obvious. Counting on the draft is, to a large extent, like counting on winning the lottery (no pun intended). Perhaps the next crucial piece will be not a draft pick but Demar DeRozen who is currently averaging 22.9 pts. per game, 4.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists. Or perhaps the next crucial piece will be Hassan Whiteside, a 7-footer who is averaging 12.8 ppg, 11.2 rebounds, and 3.9 blocks per game (which leads the NBA). Would you rather have Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker or Demar DeRozen and Hassan Whiteside?
Perhaps, then, the best strategy is to begin winning and to make the Lakers — with their very appealing youthful core of Clarkson, Randle, Russell, and LNJr — attractive to the forthcoming wave of FAs. Perhaps the Lakers should diversify their investments, so to speak, by drafting wisely, doing a better job of appealing to FAs, making timely trades, and growing organically.
For what it’s worth, I still feel that the Lakers will finish in the bottom 3. (Whether or not they hold on to their pick is another matter. There are no guarantees, as you know.) But I am simply cautioning you — and everyone — that the NBA draft is not a panacea. It is fraught with risk. You can loose a zillion games and end up with Nik Stauskas.
If the Lakers suddenly put everything together, they should not be discouraged from winning. We should root them on. Who’s to say what that will bring?
rr says
Pick/tanking: The Lakers are 29th in ORTG and 30th in DRTG, so I think it is likely that they will finish with 2nd-worst record no matter what they do with Scott or with the personnel. I wrote a lengthy post at another site pointing out that the Lakers match up well with Boston, and last night, our guys played the only team in the league that is worse than they are. That said, tomorrow’s opponent, Phoenix, has dipped to 12-23, has internal issues, weak ownership, and has lost Eric Bledsoe for the season. Brooklyn has no incentive to tank, but as I said a couple of weeks ago, Denver, Phoenix, Portland, and Minnesota are all teams that could off-load veteran talent and start chasing Ben Simmons.
WADR to Todd, though, I am not a big fan of trying to finesse the tank. Guys who are good enough to be in the NBA, whether a young prospect like Randle or a veteran role player like Williams, are going to play well sometimes. The only way to ensure the tank and market the team anyway would be to have a team comprised of Kobe and 11 guys who are no better, or actually worse than, Sacre. The root of this situation is that the Lakers gambled big on the Nash and Howard deals, lost both gambles, and are still paying the debt. So, while I agree that Black and Brown should be playing more, and that the vets from the trying-to-be-Dallas plan should be off-loaded, I don’t know doing that that would lead to fewer Ws.
Development of the core: again, we don’t really know how or if playing for Byron is affecting the career arcs of the Lakers young players, and I don’t see much persuasive evidence that Clarkson, Russell, Nance, and Randle are underachieving relative to their ages and skillsets. The players may well have as much contempt for Byron as some people here do, but I am not convinced that is true, and even if it is, I am not convinced that it will negatively affect these guys’ career arcs.
76ers: The story of Hinkie’s grand experiment is far from reaching its climax. If they win the lottery and the Lakers get the 4th pick, then Philly will get two guys in the next year’s Top 4. I am not a big fan of what Hinkie is doing, but the 76ers probably still have a better shot at being good in the next three years than the Lakers do.
Fern says
I been pretty consistent, I don’t give a rats behind about the pick, it’s a protected pick so even if the Lakers finish with the second worst record in the league, a wrong ping pong bounce a bam you end up with the fourth pick and have to give it to Philadelphia and everything was for nothing and have to start from scratch again, if we get it fine but I don’t count on it, successful rebuilds are the exception not the rule, The Cavs were triying to rebuild thru the Draft and despite being given the 1st pick twice they weren’t much better than when they started, and it took Lebron James to made them relevant again, the Sixers have been rebuilding for ever and don’t have a damn thing to show for it, we have a young core, four players that can be the future, people talk about Ben Simmons, im not sold on him, he is in a crap team and he has some glaring holes on his game and the talk is that he is fading as the top pick, so no, he is not going to come in and somehow save the Lakers, like i been saying, the Lakers are entering a new era and will have more capspace than any other team and to make this team enticing you have to win games, I’m not saying that the Lakers can win 40 games but we need to win more games than last year, i love this team and the losing is tearing me inside and i never ever will root for loses, what I believe the Lakers should do is embrace the young core and next summer we don’t need the Home Run free agent, what we need is a new coach and players that can complement our young guys especially DAR, the Draft won’t fix anything, I don’t want to spend another season discussing rookies and how best to utilize them and then dreaming about another damn pick…
A Horse With No Name says
No team will out tank Philly. The realistic position is to finish in the bottom three and hope the ball bounces our way. If the Lakers finish outside the bottom three it is still possible to move into the top three with a lucky ball. Greatest threat to overtake us in the race to the bottom is probably the Nets, even though Boston has their pick. They are that bad. I see the Pelicans improving and the Suns setting. They will likely change positions.
Watching the game last night I entertained the very real possibility that we could lose the pick as the youngsters continue to improve. Surprisingly I felt optimistic in spite of it. Both Randle and Russel are going to be very good, possibly great players. Clarkson is going to be very good. Nance is going to surprise and be a valuable rotation player. Even Anthony Brown might be a solid contributor with his defensive skills and IQ, Adding a quick shot blocker, another two-way swing man and a better coach could change the team’s fortunes as soon as next year.
rr says
BTW, Brooklyn beat the Celtics 100-97 in Boston today. I am sure the BKN fans enjoyed that one.
Fern says
Nick Young had the best season of his career and signed with the Lakers for less than his market value at the time, Roy Hibbert is an overpaid bum and he is here because he is an expiring contract that will free a boatload of cap money next summer, that were is real value is. I scratched my head about Lou Williams, i saw it as the FO desperate to sign something, anything after the FA fiasco, but he is earning his money and is playing well enough most of the time, and his salary is not a cap killing contract.At 7 million he will be the biggest contract in the books next season, which is peanuts with the cap raise, all these players aren’t perfect, and this league is filled with overpayed bloated contracts that are a hundred times worse than this, you can’t have your cake and eat it too
Robert says
“If the goal is to ” Well exactly. What is the goal? If the goal is to rebuild, then over the next couple of years:
1) We should not trade out any picks. Not even a second round pick – those are almost firsts for us. So as I said on the Hibbert deal – mistake.
2) We can take short term salary dumps if we can handle them – if and only if we get an incoming pick.
2) We should do almost zero long term deals with vets (Lou, NY – not good).
3) We should not have guys who dominate the ball and take the ball away from the youngsters. Again Lou and NY are nightmares. That is how this convo got started in that Lou was “the man” in the win.
4) We should trade out any vets for picks if possible (even if they are second rounders). We failed to do this miserably as our FA walked out the door. Unfortunately guys like DH and Pau were a lot more attractive than Lou, Hibbert, and NY. So if there were no deals to be had then, then think of what there will be this time.
The exception to all of this is if you can sign one of the top 3 guys in the league which is very unlikely.
This all seems pretty obvious to me, yet over the past couple of years we have done the exact opposite.
Mid-Wilshire says
Vander Blue, a point guard whom the Lakers looked at briefly last year, has been tearing up the D League. A few nights ago (12/30/2015) he went for 37. His highlights are worth a look-see:
http://dleague.nba.com/games/20151230/ladrap/
Kevin says
Mid — chasing meaningless wins in 2014 might have cost us a chance at Wiggins. Meaningless wins at trend of last year might have cost us a chance at KAT.
As much as I like Randle/Russell I like think Wiggins/KAT moves the Lakers forward quicker. Don’t discount the draft.
Mid-Wilshire says
Kevin,
Thanks for your reply. Actually, I’m not at all discounting the draft. I’m just putting it in perspective. For every Andrew Wiggins, there are 12 Nik Stauskases (no offense to Nik Stauskas).
My point is that stealth tanking is a dubious strategy. It’s dangerous, too. Just look at Philly. How many FAs want to go to Philadelphia? You can tank so much that you can end up damaging your brand. That limits your options for re-building your team. (FAs end up scratching you automatically off their lists.)
Wiggins and KAT are the exceptions, not the rule. If a team wants to build through the draft, and only the draft, then they’re skating on thin ice.
Why not go for the Demar DeRozen’s of the world? He’s proven, young, accomplished, and averages nearly 23 ppg. Eventually, a team has got to stop losing and start building a winning culture.
Otherwise the players start accepting losing as a way of life. That way lies madness.
I say that we let nature take its course. If the Lakers end up with a top 3 pick (which could happen), then capitalize on it. If the kids suddenly start figuring things out and end up the season with a 12-game winning streak, don’t fight it. Go with the flow. That, too, could have huge benefits. There’s more than one way to re-build a team. We should use all possible avenues. The draft is only one. And it’s to be viewed warily.
J C says
I predict another win tonight against the fading Suns, who are in free-fall right now.
This sort of winning streak threatens our tank.
It also keeps Byron around a bit longer.
Grin and bear it. It’s nice to see the young guys progressing regardless of wins and losses.
It’s nearly impossible to navigate a tank anyway.
The more we win, the more attractive we are to the next FA class.
Todd says
Mid — free agency is not a sure bet either. Witness our FO recent record with players of note. FO gravitas and organizational competency as well as winning on the court matter.
The Lakers have a two/three years to get this together before keeping the kids (Randle/Russell/Nance) start to get expensive. Clarkson’s price tag goes up staring next year — although his cap hit is controlled until year three.
Are any of these paths in front of us ideal, no. But we have possibly 4 rotation players to build on ( the kids — and two of them are already 23). We need arguably 2 to 3 more talented players, preferably close to the same timeline as our current core, to make progress.
I don’t see the Lakers being able to attract any free agents this summer. (Yes, Derozan would be nice as he’s 27 and plays a position of need. But he’s already on a winning team and the Lakers will be competing with 20 teams with cap space for his services.)
I don’t see how we trade for talent this off season without giving up a kid, which doesn’t help us. In my mind the draft offers the best hope for acquiring needed talent– this summer. The fact that they would be cost controlled is an added bonus.
Absent that, we are looking at the prospect of losing the pick and having essentially the same team on the floor next year — still looking for additional foundational talent to fill out the roster.
This year is lost in terms of competing. Why not trade the vets play the kids a lot more and yes likely lose.
Everyone knew that once Kobe tore his Achilles the Lakers were treading water as an organization. These kids are chomping at the bit to create their own identity. Trading the vets and having the FO give them the reins, this year, is not creating a culture of losing. It’s telling them that they are the future and that future starts now.
In an effort to keep moving this forward I still say keeping our pick and adding another foundational talent is the best course.
KevTheBold says
@Mid & Todd,
Both excellent points!
I agree however with Mid.
There is no way, to ensure a loss, even if we trade away our vets. Our kids are green, yet talented, thus we are bound to win some games.
Mid brought up a sage point regarding our brand. We are the Lakers, not the 76ers.
We could no more deliberately lose, than a lion could be a lamb.
Yes, if we end up falling to 2nd worst, then so be it, but we should go down fighting all the way.
Kevin says
My fear, and what makes me want to side with Todd, is that the Lakers will find themselves peaked out in no-mans land — an 8th seed capped out team.
Look, if form holds the FO will pursue KD and Horford this summer. KD is not coming but Horford might. He’s a soon to be 30 player who has missed 2 of the last four years to injury. A nice player who has peaked we’d be paying max dollars for likely one good year and three average ones. In other words he’s a bad fit.
Add another bad fit in 2017 and then the kids 2nd contracts start to kick in and voilĂ your maxed out. Yes, part of this. Is my complete lack of faith in Jim. But, letting the chips fall where they may now, when there is the ability to control the future (to some degree), may result in a situation when there is no control — maxed out 8th seed.
I’d try to keep the pick. I like options and the ability to trade it or keep the player is better than not having those choices.
KevTheBold says
@Kevin, we would all like to keep our pick, yet the question remains; how do we go about doing that?
A Horse With No Name says
Much has been made of the dearth of quality free agents available this coming summer, and that if we lose our pick this year, there will be few opportunities to improve the roster. I beg to differ. Here’s a couple of targets: (1) Evan Fournier: 6’7″ 210lbs. 23 years sf/sg Orlando Magic. In case you’ve missed it, this guy has emerged as one of the best players on the young Magic roster. An efficient shooter and play maker, excellent length and feel for the game. High IQ and clutch. Would be great with DAR and JC. The Magic surprised a lot of people (well, me at least) when they signed the good but not great Tobias Harris to a 16 mil per season deal. Fournier is a better player than Harris and may command a deal that proves to rich for the historically frugal Magic. (2) Nic Batum: A very skilled 2-way true sf, well known to Laker fans. Still relatively young, he’s the kind of veteran who could really help the young Lakers develop.
(edited for trade speculation)
Don’t chase: Harrison Barnes. He’s a limited player and not worth big money. Both Randle and Nance have higher ceilings.
A Horse With No Name says
Ok, sorry Darius. But yeah, Roy’s expiring *should* be considered with the trade deadline not too far away….
LordMo says
Canada has like 50% tax most players that have high market value leave … Demar is Audi!