D’Angelo Russell is having an elite rookie point guard season, particularly for a teenager, but it appears to be going largely unnoticed outside of Lakerland.
In many ways, Russell is a victim of the combination of high expectations and the power of first impressions. Lakers’ fans, desperate for a savior—or, at least, a reason to hope—thrust upon him the expectations of the next franchise star. And those are very real expectations for this organization, the franchise of Kobe and Shaq, Magic, the Logo, and so many others. I was admittedly not immune to those hopes, pouring hundreds of hours into pre-draft reading/watching/debating, flying out to Vegas for summer league from across the country, etc. And I was passionately pro-Russell for the pick.
For several reasons—some easily identifiable and some not—Russell had a rough start, failing to burst out of the game like Kristaps Porzingis and Karl Anthony Towns, and has as a result largely been overlooked. Something about Russell’s summer and November just felt off. Maybe it was conditioning, or Byron, or his attitude, or learning the point guard position, or being 19, or Kobe’s insane start, but Russell was clearly out of sorts. He played tentative, with no aggression or confidence, never attacking the basket, and just generally looked lost. There was a lot of fan panic and as the Lakers spiraled, the league’s attention naturally focused on several of the more immediately successful rookies.
But Russell has gradually and unequivocally turned his season around and has put together a sustained stretch of brilliant play for a 19 year old rookie point guard. Statistically, he has gotten better every month. The eye test has shown a truly radical transformation; he’s just a different player now than he was in July or November. Many have written about this recently from different angles, and I’m sure much of what I say will be duplicative.
In an attempt to add some value to the conversation, I have focused this analysis on comparing Russell’s statistics at different points in the season to those of other first year rookie guards over the last decade or so. The table below lists the statistics for 30 such rookie guards. A few preliminary notes, and then my takeaway conclusions will follow:
- I used three different snapshots for Russell: (1) season long, (2) January/February (23 games, so over a quarter of the season; throwing out the one game he left after 7 minutes due to injury), and (3) February (10 games).
- I tried to pick the 30 most relevant comparisons from recent years, but surely forgot a player or two. Thirty is admittedly a big group, but I wanted the comparison to be as accurate and thoughtful as possible.
- The players are arranged in descending order based on PER.
- I added age because I think that’s a critical factor when considering where Russell is at on the developmental curve vs. other players. Obviously, Dwyane Wade at 22 was at a different developmental point as a rookie than Russell is now.
- I used per-36 minutes states to make it a true apples to apples comparison.
- Note that, other than steals, I did not include defensive statistics, including some of the helpful advanced defensive statistics. That analysis would be illuminating and important, but I decided to focus primarily on the offensive side of the ball in this post. Surely, defense is critical to understanding the overall value of a player, and is Russell’s current greatest weakness.
Player | Age | PER | FG% | TS% | USG | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | 3s | TO | FTA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D Russell (season) | 19 | 13.7 | 42.1 | 51.3 | 23.2 | 16.4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
D Russell (Jan/Feb) | 19 | 15.5 | 44.7 | 55.2 | 23.8 | 17.9 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 3.9 |
D Russell (Feb) | 19 | 18.8 | 45.9 | 58.3 | 22 | 18.5 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 4.9 |
C Paul | 20 | 22.1 | 43 | 54.6 | 22.2 | 16.1 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 6 |
K Irving | 19 | 21.4 | 46.9 | 56.6 | 28.7 | 21.8 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.5 |
I Thomas | 22 | 17.6 | 44.8 | 57.4 | 19.8 | 16.3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 4 |
D Wade | 22 | 17.6 | 46.5 | 53 | 25 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 5.3 |
C Payne | 21 | 16.5 | 43.6 | 52.8 | 20.5 | 16.1 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2 | 1.1 |
D Lillard | 22 | 16.4 | 42.9 | 54.6 | 24.2 | 17.8 | 2.9 | 6 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
S Curry | 21 | 16.3 | 46.2 | 56.8 | 21.8 | 17.4 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3 | 2.5 |
D Rose | 20 | 16 | 47.5 | 51.6 | 22.6 | 16.3 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 3 |
J Wall | 20 | 15.8 | 40.9 | 49.4 | 23.8 | 15.6 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 5.4 |
M Carter-Williams | 22 | 15.5 | 40.5 | 48 | 25.7 | 17.4 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 5.5 |
R Westbrook | 20 | 15.2 | 39.8 | 48.9 | 25.8 | 16.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 5.8 |
K Walker | 21 | 14.9 | 36.6 | 46.4 | 25.2 | 16.1 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 4.3 |
K Lowry (*2nd ) | 21 | 14.3 | 43.2 | 53.1 | 18.6 | 13.6 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 6 |
J Harden | 20 | 14 | 40.3 | 55.1 | 20.4 | 15.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 5 |
E Payton | 20 | 13.8 | 42.5 | 45.6 | 18.3 | 10.6 | 5 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
R Rondo | 20 | 13.1 | 41.8 | 47.2 | 16.5 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
M Conley | 20 | 12.6 | 42.8 | 50.2 | 18.8 | 13 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.2 |
T Burke | 21 | 12.6 | 38 | 47.3 | 21.8 | 14.2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
D Williams | 21 | 12.4 | 42.1 | 50 | 20.3 | 13.5 | 3 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
R Hood | 22 | 12.3 | 41.4 | 52.9 | 19.6 | 14.7 | 4 | 2.8 | 1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
T Parker | 19 | 11.7 | 41.9 | 49.7 | 17.7 | 11.2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 1 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
B Knight | 20 | 11.7 | 41.5 | 51.1 | 21.7 | 14.3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
J Teague | 21 | 11 | 39.6 | 45.9 | 19.1 | 11.4 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
M Smart | 20 | 11 | 36.7 | 49.1 | 15.1 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
G Dragic | 22 | 9.8 | 39.3 | 48.7 | 19.7 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
R Jackson | 21 | 9.2 | 32.1 | 40.8 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
J Grant | 23 | 9.4 | 34.9 | 43.5 | 18.7 | 10.9 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 3.7 |
E Mudiay | 19 | 8.2 | 33.6 | 40.5 | 25 | 13.3 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
D Exum | 19 | 5.7 | 34.9 | 45.7 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
- The first thing that stands out is comparing Russell to himself – he’s simply getting better as the season goes along.
- His PER for Oct/Nov/Dec was about 12.9, his PER for Jan/Feb is 15.5, and his PER for Feb is 18.8.
- 15.5 is better rookie PER than Westbrook and Harden. 18.8 is better than everyone but CP3 and Kyrie.
- His points/36 min and TS% went from 14.1 pts and 48.8% for November to 18.8 and 58.3 for February.
- Note that getting steadily better through a rookie season is not automatic. Porzingis, for example, has tailed off a little; he shot out of the gate with a 20.0 PER for November, which fell to 17.8 for February (still solid). Many rookies hit a wall, but Russell is getting substantially better each month.
- If you throw out Russell’s first phase of the season, which is probably justified given the perfect storm nightmare of Byron’s antics, Kobe’s insane first month or two, and being 19, his stats show elite production compared to the list.
- His PER for Feb is 3rd overall, and his Jan/Feb PER ranks 10th.
- His scoring and three point shooting are elite.
- For points/36 min: 7th on the season, and 2nd for Jan/Feb and Feb. Russell’s 17.9 per 36 for Jan/Feb is better than Curry, Harden, CP3, Rose, Wade, Lillard, and Westbrook. Only Kyrie scored better than Russell has over the last two months.
- For 3s: tied with Curry for 2nd for all time periods. He’s making substantially more 3s per 36 than some of the league’s elite shooters did as rookies, like Lillard, Harden, Kyrie, and Thomas. Only Cam Payne is higher, and he’s a spot up shooter playing 11 minutes a game next to Westbrook/Durant.
- His shooting efficiency has risen to elite levels.
- While his TS% is 12th for the season (a solid 51.3%), his Jan/Feb rank 4th (55.2%), and his Feb ranks FIRST (58.3%).
- This allows for him to score at the elite levels noted above while not being a usage hog (9th on the season and 9th for Jan/Feb).
- I included FTA to highlight his improvement in that area, especially because it was a source of real concern.
- He began the season with an anemic taste for the paint, but has completely done a 180 over the last two months, showing a real talent for drawing fouls in his own unique ways (either at the rim or with a defender on his hip in the midrange).
- His Jan/Feb ranks 11th in FTA, and his Feb ranks 8th. For example, his 4.9 FTA for Feb compare favorably to eventual foul-drawing magnets like Harden (5.0) and Wade (5.3), and is better than others like Rose (3.0) and Lillard (3.6).
- Russell’s assists are on the low side, admittedly, at 25th on the season and 24th for Jan/Feb. But that is something that just doesn’t concern me given the context, and I’m trying hard to not just explain away numbers I don’t like… Both in college and this year, he has shown that he possesses special vision. The passing talent is there. But he has clearly been hampered by the brutal combination of Byron’s (non) system, not having any semblance of a pick and roll big (Hibbert might be the worst in the league and Randle just doesn’t have this skill yet), and usually having poor spot up shooters (cough, Kobe). I am not sure he’ll be a Westbrook, Rondo, or Wall in terms of assists per game, but I do think he can create for others in an elite way.
- When you factor in Russell’s age, his stats become even more impressive.
- The only other 19 year olds on the list are Kyrie, Parker, Mudiay, and Exum, and he’s been better than all of them but Kyrie (who put together one of the top two rookie PG seasons of the last decade).
- 15 of the players on the list were 19 or 20 as rookies. If you rank within that group, Russell’s stats really stand out. Comparing his Jan/Feb numbers to those 15 players, Russell ranks 5th in PER, 2nd in TS%, 2nd in Pts, 4th in USG, and 1st in 3s.
- After CP3 and Kyrie at #1 and 2 in PER, the next 5 ranked players were either 21 or 22 as rookies. For example, Wade and Lillard were 22 and Curry was 21. Age matters, and given Russell’s in-season development, just imagine what his production will be in two years – an eternity from now (and, hopefully, from Byron Scott…). I’m confident he’ll be putting up stats that compare with anyone on this list.
- By any measure, he’s put together an excellent year. He’s light years better than several other highly touted rookies – Mudiay, Smart, Exum, etc. And he’s been comparable to several eventual all star level players – Deron Williams, Parker, Harden, Lowry, Westbrook, etc.
- Russell’s Feb stats are on par with just about anyone – 3rd in PER, 1st in TS%, 2nd in Pts, 11th in Ast, 8th in Stl, 1st in 3s, and 5th in FTA. Put that all together and it’s probably better that everyone but CP3 and Kyrie.
So where does this leave us? What will Russell ultimately become? Well, we have no idea, of course. But the point of this analysis, I believe, is that we can rightfully look forward with hope for a truly special player. He’s shown enough sustained production at such a young age, and in such a toxic environment, to believe that he will be doing amazing things when 25 years old with the right teammates and coach around him.
He can do everything on the offensive end. He can shoot from 3, the midrange, and is increasingly crafty in the paint (despite the lack of explosiveness). On the last point, note that he’s currently ranked 40th among guards in FG% within 5 feet of the rim at 58.9%. That’s a higher percent than more notable guards such as Wall, Harden, DeRozan, Kyrie, and Westbrook. He has a pretty remarkable touch around the basket already, even if he’s only dunked once.
Plus, as discussed before, he is growing in his ability to draw fouls, and is already making 3s at an elite rate. He’s a beautiful pick and roll passer, especially when Black (the only competent rolling big) is on the court, and has shown an ability to make the speed pass to three points shooters like Clarkson, Williams, and Young. He has shown signs that he can one day be the engine of a great offense, and there aren’t many players in the league that rise to that level. I would not be surprised to see him averaging something like 23, 5 and 7, with extreme high volume in 3s (2+ makes per game), and solid efficiency (45/40/80, and a TS% between 55-60, which would be elite).
While this is sunny outlook offensively, a critical part of his overall development will be improving on defense. And while I did not focus on defensive statistics in this post, it is clear that Russell is largely a weak defender now that must substantially improve. That said, his defensive deficiencies, to me, seem largely rooted in habits rather than tools.
He has shown pretty solid on the ball tendencies – better than our other guards (which isn’t saying much, I know) – and has the length to disrupt shots and deflect passes (as shown by his solid steal rate). He also has shown the ability to be a strong defensive rebounder for a point guard. But he has somewhere between awful and horrific team instincts right now, regularly getting back cut, overly digging down to offer unnecessary post help (leaving his man open for endless open threes), ball watching too often, etc. This is an area where strong coaching and a few years of development should make a huge difference.
All of this underscores the need to make sure he maximizes these gifts through the right environment, resources, and coaching. I do not believe Byron is the coach to inspires, preferring he be replaced by someone who can inspire Russell to take this team over, rather than constantly doing drive by media shootings. He needs an elite pick and roll center (Whiteside would be perfect … on paper…); Randle needs to round out his game; need a Brandon Ingram (type) at SF.
Spending the first few years of his career in a toxic environment with outdated schemes would be such a shame. I love all of our young players, but Russell is the one that can really carry us places, and the team needs to set him up to find that greatness.
Anon#1 says
Jerry West joined Marc Stein, Brian Windhorst and Amin Elhassan and mentioned that his team has “another gear”. Also mentions that the Warriors goal was to play like the Spurs. Says that the current NBA is a ‘centerless’ league.
Sigh…just would feel better if he had a seat at the Lakers table.
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/playPopup?id=14866959
A Horse With No Name says
A great post. Excellent analysis supported by meaningful stats. Thank you, Reed. D’Angelo’s passing skills will begin to truly dazzle when he is surrounded by talent that can cut and catch his whizzing passes (sorry Roy). We already have seen some of what lies ahead for him as a play maker when he is paired with Tarik Black, who is a good dive and finish big.
Comrade says
Great article and very encouraging. For me, he has always passed the eye test and I’ve definitely noticed he’s gotten better each month. Nice to see some stats backing that up. Hopefully better days are ahead
Anonymous says
WHAT IS TS%
Darius Soriano says
TS% is shorthand for True Shooting Percentage. It’s a shooting stat which takes into account the value of three pointers and free throws into a single shooting percentage.
W says
Saying he is having an elite season is REALLY pushing it.
Marques says
80 percent of the games are non competitive. That’s not not a knock on Russell, but blowout numbers are irrelevant in my opinion.
The games are over midway through the second quarter.
Absent a few games when the bench brought the team back after the opponent let up, it’s been one beating after the next.
the other Stephen says
Hey, it’s a Reed post. Neat!!
Mike says
Thanks! I knew Russell was getting better and he has looked very good recently, but it’s nice to see actual numbers quantifying his improvement.
Michael h says
I don’t give to much stock to the whole got their numbers on a bad team argument. Every player on the list that Russell was compared to were on bad teams, wit Wade and Lillard as the exceptions. Generally speaking most top draft picks are drafted by bad teams unless the team was lucky enough to trade with the Nets.
Fern says
Great article excellent!! DAR is improving and like Michael h said, the vast majority of the comparison were in really bad teams too when they started. He is been improving steadily trending upwards and that’s exactly what we like to see. In 2-3 years and better talent around he could be something…
Mikey says
So, when Russell put up poor numbers on the Lakers… THAT was a good indicator ? But the great numbers are not ?
That’s broken thinking. The kind of numbers that don’t matter are Michael Adams numbers, if you remember the 1980s-1990s Nuggets. It’s volume, not efficiency that can be faked.
If you are drilling 3 after 3, and shooting over 55%, as Russell is doing lately, I don’t think the rim is going to be replaced with a smaller one once you start getting wins. Of course, defensive coverage will be more intense, but so will Russell’s physical development, maturity, skills development, AND having a coach who creates schemes, such as tons of high pick and rolls, to get him those easy buckets.
I see a guy who reminds me of James Harden, BUT who lacks the shoot first mentality, and disconnected lonerism that ruins Harden. True, he lacks Harden’s degree of dribbling skill, and tempo control, but more than makes up for it with his shooting ability, and passing skills.
We scored. It won’t even be a debate next Thanksgiving.
My ignorant .02 cents.
R says
22 games to go then the Kobe bashers will have to find something else to fixate on. I’m confident they will find that something!
Marques says
I’m not saying the numbers don’t mean anything at all, but given the fact by the end of the first quarter they are down by 10, by the middle of the second down by 15 or 20 every night you can’t gage his effectiveness
Because when teams decide to play defense and push the lead they so it with ease. You can’t be an offensive juggernaut when it comes in extended garbage time.
I want to see if he can keep some of these last games close, hold his own for more than a few minutes. Get blown out in the 4th not the 1st.
Anonymous says
22 games to go then the Kobe bashers will have to find something else to fixate on. I’m confident they will find that something!
__
Not if Jim goes out the door with Kobe.
Fern says
I find it amusing that most of DAR bashers are people that wanted Okafor or Miudiay. If our defense is horrific now with Okafor would had been, i don’t know a word that could describe our defense with him at the middle. And Miudiay i think he is going to be good down the line but if the Lakers drafted him and he put the numbers he is putting in Denver? People would be rioting in the streets and setting Staples on fire. Outside Towns the best player available was Russell, not many people thought Pozingis would be this good coming out of the gate and he has hit a rookie wall lately but he will pretty good too. We got this pick right at least. I hope we keep this summer pick and are able to add someone like Ingram…
TempleOfJamesWorthy says
I’ll admit my joy at the Lakers having drafted DAR was tempered at bit when he did not play very well at the start of the season. I didn’t think he’d be a bust, but I was worried his ceiling was more Solid Rotation Player than Potential All-Star. It’s nice to see the numbers back up my subjective impression that DAR is going to be more than Just A Guy in the NBA.
And one thing that the numbers can’t capture is the Steve Nash Factor. By that I mean having a team led by a unselfish pass-first player is infectious. It makes the game fun and easy for other players, so other players WANT to play with a Steve Nash…or a D’Angelo Russell.
How long has it been since the Lakers have had a prominent player that other players WANTED to play with? Since Shaq left in 2004?
No, DAR by himself is not going to make someone like Kevin Durant want to join the Lakers. But won’t those recruiting pitches be so much easier when it’s DAR explaining to All-Star Free Agent, “here’s where I can get you the ball so you can score easily” instead of The Narcissist Snake explaining, “Yeah, you’ll be our 4th option on offense?”
A Horse With No Name says
As a Cal alum, I’ve been watching Jaylen Brown this season. He is going to be a very good or better nba player. I would be thrilled to get him if we get the third pick. (Hoping…)
KO says
Good news.
Watching the quick, young Nets vs Kobe and Brook Lopez vs Roy they should beat the Lakers tomorrow. Easy.
Vasheed says
I was very pro-Russell before the draft and in hindsight I am very happy with him. I don’t know if he will be the next Kobe or whatever but, in Russell the Lakers have a legitimate building block to work with.
Darius Soriano says
Marques,
Not that I care to convince you — you have your mind made up on Russell similar to commenters like Sid when talking about Kobe — but since you continue to try and move the goalposts and talk about situations without bringing any evidence to back up you claims I’ll just say that in the last 5 minutes of games that are within 5 points, Russell is shooting 43% from the field and 40% from behind the arc. During any portion of the game when the margin is between 1-5 points Russell is shooting 45% from the field — though his 3 point shooting dips to 30%. When the game is tied at any point during the game, Russell is shooting 37% from the field, but has made 50% of his 3 pointers. These stats are publicly available, so I’m guessing you just haven’t bothered to look because who needs to look up stats when their mind is made up?
KevTheBold says
Brilliant assessments Darius !
Once we can surround D’Angelo with dependable shooters, I believe his assist ratios will soar, and we will have our super star.
Imo his detractors, are more interested in being right about their original assessments, than the future of our team; thus I am learning simply to pity them.
KO says
Is Brook Lopez the best center in the NBA?
One of two with 20 plus and 10.
J C says
Russell seems poised to make huge strides in the next two years. Making passes like the one featured in the previous thread is the hallmark of a special player.
He can shoot, pass, post up and rebound (for a guard) with the best already.
His penetration seems to be improving but I’d like to see more of that. Also like to see his FT% improve.
That should happen over time as it often does for good players.
Big Russell fan since Day One.
rr says
How long has it been since the Lakers have had a prominent player that other players WANTED to play with?
—
Artest came here in large part to play with Kobe and said so in public several times. Guys want to win. Howard left so he could be on a better team.
Also, for you and Sid: Kobe’s legacy is set in stone: 5 titles, 3rd on the scoring list, 2 Gold Medals, 2 Finals MVPs, 1 NBA MVP, 1st ballot HOF, 2 jerseys in the rafters at Staples, and a statue. The last three years of his career will matter about as much to KB historically as Jordan’s Washington years matter to Jordan historically.
You can post whatever you want to of course, but Kobe’s career is over, except for the goodbye in Game 82. So you and Sid might consider moving on—you lost the argument that you are still trying to have a long, long time ago.
rr says
I said when Russell was drafted that I saw his ceiling as being a guy as valuable as Ginobili or Harden, and it is looking more like he can do that. That’s good.
Baylor Fan says
Nice article, thanks for doing all the research. I was hoping the FO saw more in Russell than the fancy passes with no one guarding him. It looks like they made a choice they can be proud of.
Why says
All this told me is that Russell is worse than 60th pick I.Thomas. That’s bad.
rr says
All this told me is that Russell is worse than 60th pick I.Thomas
—
Then you need to read it a little more carefully.
BigCitySid says
– Nice little piece on how a sharp NBA front office works: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14870954/miami-heat-buyout-beno-udrih-several-teams-upset
– Pertaining to Russell’s development, thanks for including the following as a factor: “The passing talent is there. But he has clearly been hampered by the brutal combination of Byron’s (non) system, not having any semblance of a pick and roll big (Hibbert might be the worst in the league and Randle just doesn’t have this skill yet), and usually having poor spot up shooters (cough, Kobe).” Keeping it real, when was the last time ball dominating Kobe played with a talented point guard who could do more than just spot up? For the over-sensitive, that’s not a knock, just a question. (I think the answer is Van Exel…who for some reason was traded, hmmm).
– At this point, I really have no clue how good DAR will be. Whether the team will be built around him, or if he’ll be a complimentary piece. Whether he’ll be be the 1st or 2nd scoring option, or the sixth man. Maybe some feel confident they’ve seen enough in his rookie season to make that decision. Playing alongside a ball dominating HOF off-guard in his last year, his hand picked coach and for a franchise playing to lose, I just find it difficult to get a good feel.
– Now EVERYONE knows Kobe’s positive stats, many don’t know his negative ones, and most who do prefer to act as if they don’t exist while having no problems mentioning the shortcomings of other NBA immortals like Shaq, Duncan, and LeBron.
– Question to ponder: what statistical category is Kobe the career leader in? Kareem is the scoring leader, Wilt: rebounds, Stockton: assist, Jordan: PER.
mindcrime says
BCS you have officially crossed the line from “unhealthy obsession” to “pathetic pathology” with the kobe hatred. It’s almost simmons-esque. But simmons has the excuse of being a fan of the evil shamrocks.
Marques says
Darius, I don’t need convincing, he can play…that’s not the point.
There is large difference between playing games and keeping them close, and scoring points while getting blown out.
Games have context, if your points don’t impact the game, then they are empty.
He may very well be an all star next year, I don’t feel any way good or bad. Seems like you guys have some intimate attachment to Russell.
I’m just saying what I see during the games, I know he is the top pick but geesh
KevTheBold says
None so blind, as those that Will Not see !
The intimate obsession is on Marques’s end, a relentless and twisted negative attraction.
Vasheed says
@Why as RR was pointing out, Russell is trajecting to be better than Thomas by age 22. In recent play his PER is higher than Thomas. The only player who beats Russell at 19 is K. Irving and C. Paul holds a better PER than Irving but was 20 years old at the time. Not bad company to be in.
I believe today is the last day for buy outs? Wondering if the Lakers will do something to open a roster spot.
T. Rogers says
Excellent breakdown, Darius.
anon says
Marques: This is kooky: There is large difference between playing games and keeping them close, and scoring points while getting blown out.
Did you fail to understand what Darius laid out in his reply to you? Dude, you keep getting nutmeged on this board . . . .
Nik Kannan says
Wondering how he compares to a 22 yr old Brandon Roy roookie.
Drizzy says
I think D’Angelo could be something special. Especially if this summer goes fairly decent in terms of the development of both him and the team. Should Julius Randle’s jump shot come along and Jordan Clarkson continue to develop as a slasher and spot up shooter, he will instantly be poised for improvement. That’s not to mention the potential of taking a chance on a fish like Whiteside or a vet like Horford to run P&R with. And then there is the draft, where a scoring wing like Ingram would be in the perfect situation to grow individually and as a group with the team. Here’s hoping to a brighter future
Chris J says
Is Brook Lopez the best center in the NBA?
——–
Close, but if given a choice, it’s tough to pass on Cousins as No. 1 at the five spot.
Vasheed says
@Fern,
I have watched more video of Ingram. I’m on board with you drafting Ingram. I like his shooting, rebounding, and that length shot blocking. He would be a perfect compliment to Randle and add size to our front court. However, he isn’t as NBA ready as Simmons and I believe our F.O. will draft Simmons if they got the number one pick.
As for the 3rd pick I think I prefer Brown slightly over Bender. I weigh them about equally but the Lakers would be better served with a SF. However, I would personally love to trade down if the Lakers got the 3rd pick if they could deal him for a package of Luwawu and Labissiere. I wanted Luwawu last year but he pulled out when no one promised to draft him in the first round. Since then he has only gotten better greatly improving his 3pt shooting. He is also a great solid defender and can play SF.
Labissiere had earlier on been predicted to go fairly high in the draft but has disappointed on production. However he has a great tool set. He has size and speed to play PF/C. Has a nice mid range jumper. Finally he has shown enough speed for a big man to stay in front of guards out at the perimeter. As a mid or late first round pick I think he is a worthwhile gamble..
Raj Vir says
It could be useful to show the Jan/Feb splits for the other players listed, too. I’d guess that a lot of rookies get better in January and February, so comparing 2 months of Russell to full seasons of other point guards might not paint an accurate picture.
Kareeme says
Raj, you could very easily do this research on your own. James Harden by month has stats all over the place. April of his rookie year was his best, but between January and March, there was much variability. Dwayne Wade had his best months in December-January but started to regress in March and April. I randomly picked two guards on the list, have your try if you want to test further. Look up “[player name] season splits stats” and find where they break it down by month. Your theory doesn’t seem too promising. In fact, the “rookie wall” and “Sophomore slump” are common metaphors for the late season struggles of young players.
Anonymous says
Interesting article about Portland rebuilding without hitting bottom:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14877651/chemistry-commitment-blazers-ahead-schedule
Todd says
2016 Draft
Simmons = Ingram > Bender > Brown
I think Simmons/Ingram comes down to fit and intangibles that come out during the draft review/courting process. Bender is a Center with range (a stretch 5) which I like over Brown who is a SG sized Small Forward.
Fern says
@vasheed im glad we agree about Ingram BUT, i think he is more NBA ready than you think. If we draft Simmons, that would be great too but for me Ingram is the better player and the better fit. Simmons has zero outside shot whatsoever not even a mid ranger and his game at this stage would clog the interior with Randle and whoever is our next center,(please let it be Whiteside)cough cough lol. Plus his defense is horrendous and i think we all can agree we have enough of that. With Ingram we can spread the floor and even though he is still skin and bones he is still growing and he is not afraid of contact. With a wing like that running and spreading the floor DAR passing could do wonders.Beyond the second pick i agree with your choices if we get the 3rd pick but I wouldn’t trade down for projects. But let’s hope we get the ping pong balls bounce our way.
don ford says
Van Exel: My memory is that it was CANCUN! and Shaq’s complaining about it that got Van Exel shipped out.
Nick was the prototypical player I usually dislike — inconsistent, poor FG%, showboaty, merely adequate-passing point guard, etc … and I just loved watching him play, pumping up the team. Go figure.
minorthreatt says
NVE would probably fare poorly in a lot of analytics, but I loved watching him play too. Dude was fearless. Remember Game Five against the Spurs in 95? Fun series, fun team. I’d be happy with some of that kind of excitement out of this current bunch in a couple of years.
Marques says
Anon
Nutmegged, how so?
Your start with a bogus pretext, saying things like he’s 19, as if rookies are any other age since the one and done era started…
Then you go on to call someone a hater for pointing out his defense was absolutely horrible
Then you say it’s OK him for to pop off at the mouth at the coach as a “19 year old” because well…you hate Byron
Then, you rattle off stats that don’t matter and say oooh, he told you, while at the same time knowing even when the games get close the other team never feels threatned, they go on to blow us out….
But with all that said, what’s worse, what I can’t understand is grown people calling somebody a hater
Tell me he plays great defense, tell me the games are close, he’ll tell me the other rookies are 24 and older, but don’t tell me I’m a hater when he is doing everything I say he’s doing.
He’s 19 is not a valid argument, especially when you use it to justify the bad and highlight the good.
Clay Bertrand says
Marques,
Did you even READ the stats posted for all the players??
Do you acknowledge that a good number of the players listed also played on crappy teams??
Do you acknowledge that crappy teams tend to get beaten handily and even BLOWN OUT??
Do you therefore acknowledge that the other players’ numbers listed are also subject to your “if the points don’t come in a close game they are EMPTY” philosophy??
Do you acknowledge that the players on the list being compared to DAR are/were quality NBA players if not SUPERSTARS???
Can you at least ACKNOWLEDGE that based on the stats provided that DAR is in good company SO FAR???
I don’t think you’re a Hater. You just don’t seem to know how to back up your statements/arguments with any EVIDENCE. You’re on record calling DAR a “BUST” and you prefer to frame your posts to maintain that position even in the face of increasingly emerging contrary evidence.
As a Laker fan, you should be HAPPY that you’re WRONG bro!!! We all are!!!!! : )
Mid-Wilshire says
Tonight Hassan Whiteside’s numbers were as follows: 26 pts. (8-11 shooting, 10-11 FTs), 14 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 1 assist in 33:01. Miami beat Chicago 129-111.
Miami, BTW, is right at the luxury threshold. Reportedly, they will not be able to retain Whiteside. He’ll be too expensive.
matt says
Darius,, you totally geeked out, thank you
Niko says
Darius’ article precipitated a hurricane of a night from Russell. A good omen, it was.
Anonymous says
He’s having a good season, far from elite.. article is nothing but a huge misinterpretation of the stats
Jim C. says
It’s been a while since I commented here but I just wanted to say excellent post and analysis.
Clay Bertrand says
8:31am was Marques………brother has gone ROGUE……
P. Ami says
I think Simmons is, far and away, the best player available in this draft. He and DAR in a pick and roll would become a devastating force. I assume that Simmons will become a good shooter and may extend out to the 3PT line. I like Ingram too, but Simmons is the guy in this draft.
matt says
He’s saying an elite rookie point guard year….. it’s too bad 4 year olds are now on the internet