…and I am not doing too well. Sure, I’ve tried to tell myself a few lies in the past few days. These lies were mostly told to try and make me feel less anxious or nervous. Now that the days has come, these lies have failed me. FAILED ME, I SAY.
Anyways, we’ve already discussed some of the consequences of today, so I won’t get into that much further. This pick is important and I would greatly prefer the Lakers keep it than lose it. Yes, there are a couple of silver linings should this pick fall outside the top-3 and go to Philly, but that’s like saying a silver lining to breaking your leg is that while you wear a cast one of your shoes doesn’t get any wear and tear on it.
So, let’s just stick to the numbers of the night and go from there…
The Lakers have a 55.8% chance of keeping their pick, but it’s important to remember that number is actually made up of smaller percentages which are allotted to each potential draft slot:
- 19.9% chance of getting the #1 pick
- 18.8% chance of getting the #2 pick
- 17.1% chance of getting the #3 pick
- 31.9% chance of getting the #4 pick
- 12.3% chance of getting the #5 pick
Two things of note from those numbers:
- The Lakers actually have better chances of drafting #1 than they do of staying put in the 2nd slot.
- The scenario with the best individual odds is the Lakers falling to the #4 pick and losing it to Philly. This is what happened last year when the Knicks fell from 2nd to 4th.
If you’re looking for more numbers, here is the history of what has happened to the team who was slotted into the 2nd best chances:
— Jack Jook (@jackj00k) May 11, 2016
If you’re looking for hope in these numbers, every 10 years since 1996 the pick has either moved up to #1 overall or stayed put at #2 overall. With it being 2016, maybe the 10 year trick works again!
The numbers, though, do not paint a great story. So, it’s back to hoping things work out. We’ll know more tonight. Follow along with us this evening and we’ll update you as soon as we know more.