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The Draft Lottery Is Here…

by


…and I am not doing too well. Sure, I’ve tried to tell myself a few lies in the past few days. These lies were mostly told to try and make me feel less anxious or nervous. Now that the days has come, these lies have failed me. FAILED ME, I SAY.

Anyways, we’ve already discussed some of the consequences of today, so I won’t get into that much further. This pick is important and I would greatly prefer the Lakers keep it than lose it. Yes, there are a couple of silver linings should this pick fall outside the top-3 and go to Philly, but that’s like saying a silver lining to breaking your leg is that while you wear a cast one of your shoes doesn’t get any wear and tear on it.

So, let’s just stick to the numbers of the night and go from there…

The Lakers have a 55.8% chance of keeping their pick, but it’s important to remember that number is actually made up of smaller percentages which are allotted to each potential draft slot:

  • 19.9% chance of getting the #1 pick
  • 18.8% chance of getting the #2 pick
  • 17.1% chance of getting the #3 pick
  • 31.9% chance of getting the #4 pick
  • 12.3% chance of getting the #5 pick

Two things of note from those numbers:

  • The Lakers actually have better chances of drafting #1 than they do of staying put in the 2nd slot.
  • The scenario with the best individual odds is the Lakers falling to the #4 pick and losing it to Philly. This is what happened last year when the Knicks fell from 2nd to 4th.

If you’re looking for more numbers, here is the history of what has happened to the team who was slotted into the 2nd best chances:

If you’re looking for hope in these numbers, every 10 years since 1996 the pick has either moved up to #1 overall or stayed put at #2 overall. With it being 2016, maybe the 10 year trick works again!

The numbers, though, do not paint a great story. So, it’s back to hoping things work out. We’ll know more tonight. Follow along with us this evening and we’ll update you as soon as we know more.


Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. A Horse With No Name says

    Breathe. Let go. Breathe. Close your eyes. Smile. Let go. It is beyond your control. Be at peace with all outcomes.

    Go Lakers!

  2. barry_g says

    The next few hrs are gonna be an eternity for me. Let’s get this over with already.

  4. R says

    Keeping the pick or not, I hope the Lakers are a little more creative this off season than signing a hodge poge of mis matched vets and rolling cap space forward.
    At least they will have a more promising HC roaming the sidelines – let’s hope he gets something to work with!

  6. BigCitySid says

    – Bottom line:

    If the Lakers land the 1st pick, everything is beautiful, the tank worked.

    If the Lakers land the 2nd pick, most of us will be fine.

    If our Lakers pick 3rd, this site will be very divided on what to do.

    If the pick falls out of the top 3, the front office stinks for making such a bad deal and causing us to endure such a lost season.

    This is Laker fan life right now.

  9. Mid-Wilshire says

    I have all my lucky charms lined up on my desk. But I’m not letting anyone in my office because they’ll think I’m nuts.

  11. JeffT says

    I just played the espn draft lottery game 8 times in a row. The first 7 times, the Lakers ended up out of the top 3 every time. The 8th time, we got the #1 pick. I hope I just eliminated all of the bad luck.

  12. Clay Bertrand says

    Worst Lakers pick can be is 5th not 6th as I had originally thought……for whatever that’s worth….

  14. karen says

    The odds are terrible to get pick #1 thru 3. Tanking was not worth it, if indeed they did. All this forum all yr long talked about was this pick as if it was a given.

  15. 24hrx. says

    The worst they can pick is not picking; anything later than #3 and the pick goes to Philly.

  16. Fern says

    @karen I didn’t, i said not long ago that of the last 20 years the 2nd worst got a top 3 pick only 8 times. I got some flak for it. I also said it’s not the end of the world if we don’t get it. But i sure hope we do. Im nervous as hell…

  18. Joel says

    Dropping out of the top 3 would be the perfect coda for this debacle of a season.

  21. Tim says

    Lakers keep their pick, will it be #1, #2 or #3?
    It’s the second pick in the draft.

  38. KenLeon says

    Great. Result for the Lakers. Not only do they keep the pick but they draft in the easiest spot possible. Just pick Simmons or Ingram.

  41. Steve says

    So nervous when I realized I left my Chick Hearn bobblehead at home.

    Kind of prefer having the 2nd pick. Let the Sixers draft Simmons and have him bust.

    -S

  43. George Best says

    Quick turn around now. With Ingram or Simmons and a couple free agents.

    Do not trade the pick

  44. lil pau says

    what a relief. i think it’s 50-50 this pick gets traded, but i certainly prefer to have options…

    otherwise, i’m good with either of the two big names…..

  45. Fern says

    Ingram should be the pick. Simmons is the “sexy” choice. I take the better player…

  46. Robert says

    “Just pick Simmons or Ingram” I said the same thing last year. However : )

  47. rr says

    Well, I think all the people who think Ingram fits with Randle will get to find out. I will be surprised if the pick gets moved.

  48. DieTryin' says

    Stressful but a very good outcome. The one thing that made it a little more bearable was that they read the names quickly and you could see the logos before the team name was called. The first cut was making it to the Top 3. The next was avoiding the #3 hole. 2/3 ain’t bad guys!

  49. Fern says

    So far we are having 2 pretty good weeks. This new era looks promising. I sure hope we don’t move that pick. I think this is a case of we can make our cake and eat it too. We can get a stud thru the Draft and have tons of money to improve the team. We need to take advantage of that.

  50. Mid-Wilshire says

    …and we have the #32 pick. You can still find a good player at that position (or draft someone and stash him in Europe).

    In any event, the Lakers are accumulating assets…and talent.

    This is a good thing.

  51. Dom says

    76ers have Okafor, Noel, Embiid, they need a distributor not another big. Given Simmons package they almost have to take him. They have no one to get the ball to their bigs. What they Sixers really need is guard help. Someone to facill]itate their offense through. That is not Ingram. I also like Ingram’s pedigree. I like his killer instinct in the ACC and in the tournament. Simmons may rebound and assist well in the SEC but he lacks any outside game. I watched him many times and he excelled againts cupcakes but he seemed to shrink againt better competition. That being said i think the sixers given their current roster cant afford to pass on Simmons which bodes well for us.

  52. Patrick Lanigan says

    Byron gone. Luke hired. Pick retained. Offseason off to a roaring start. Now just draft Ingram, sign DeRozan and Whiteside, and extend Clarkson.

  55. KevTheBold says

    Fantastic !!

    ….and the rebuild slides into 2nd gear ~!

    I wonder who philly will snag ?

  56. Tra says

    Extremely happy that we were able to maintain the pick. Say what you will, but after the worst year, record wise, in franchise history, I, for one, definitely wanted something to show for it. Hopefully, they hold on to it.

    Phase 2 of the rebuild is now in the books. With Phase 1 being the hiring of Luke. Now on to Phase 3, which is Free Agent acquisitions. As Fern stated, the New Era is off to a solid start.

  57. Ed says

    Much easier decision than last year, take the one Philly passes on. I`ll have to look at some tape and get a better idea about these guys which seems to be all about potential down the road.

  58. rr says

    Any chance the 76ers draft Ingram?
    —

    Seems unlikely, but you never know.

    As suggested above, the Lakers FO now has a pretty obvious path: draft Ingram, sign a 5 (presumably Whiteside or Ezeli), bring back Clarkson and go with

    1 Russell
    2 Clarkson
    3 Ingram
    4 Randle
    5 Whiteside/Ezeli

    and add a couple of youngish guys/and maybe one vet to fill out the rotation while keeping cap space.

    Also, the draft pick/lottery watching is almost certainly not over. It just switches to the 2017 pick and what is owed to Orlando for Dwight Howard.

  59. J C says

    If Lakers get Ingram, i assume that rules out signing Batum since he plays the 3.
    Which in turn means they keep Randle to play 4.
    They could still sign Derozan to play 2.

    Russell
    DeRozan
    Ingram
    Randle
    Whiteside or Ezeli

  60. Sean Is says

    OK, No.2 pick + something for Pau George or No.2 pick for Jimmy Butler, who says no?

    I like Whiteside and Biyombo, but not Derozan and Ezeli.

  61. Mid-Wilshire says

    Sean,

    I could be wrong but I believe the Lakers will keep their pick. If it had been a #3 pick, then they would have shopped it. But I think they’ll hang on to either Simmons or Ingram. (Of course, you can never tell.)

    In any event, next year the Lakers will be VERY young.

    The youth movement continues. (This includes the coach.)

  62. stats says

    Well, I’m cautiously optimistic. It was a joyful moment when I subconsciously thought, “well whomever we pick, at least Luke will try to improve their game and play to their strengths”. That didn’t happen under BS.

    Personally, I’m hoping for Ingram. Simmons = some awkward ugly shots. Question: Will they both try to tank interviews to angle for draft by Lakers over Sixers?

    Another good thing this offseason: DAR got only one vote for ROY, and only 3rd place at that. It that doesn’t light a fire, what will?

  63. Gary says

    Young and talented is something we can live with and grow with. Just look at the conference finals OKC and GS — those are really good teams. We’re not there yet so let’s take our time and do this right. Things are starting to take shape.

  64. LT Mitchell says

    What a relief!

    I read that Simmons wanted to be a Laker. I’m wondering if he will try to force his way to LA somehow.

  65. Tsig says

    And we beat the leprechauns again. Haven’t felt this much emotion for the team in three years. Keep all the youngsters! Mitch is ice cold. Not a muscle on his face moved when the picks were announced.

    And for all the criticism of BS4, the ship really does feel like its back on the right course. Look how good Cleaveland is since he left! Hope is alive!

    Never been in this position as a Laker fan. But now there’s possibilties for growing into something great again. It’s about the journey over the destination.

  66. Fern says

    DAR, Julius, Clarkson, Nance and Ingram/Simmons and Luke. Thats a outstanding young core to me. Potentially the best in the league…

  67. Anonymous says

    You got to give credit where credit is due, thank you Byron Scott for being a terrible coach and putting us in a position to get this pic

  68. LKK says

    Whew!!

    The complete lottery results:

    1. Philadelphia 76ers
    2. Los Angeles Lakers
    3. Boston Celtics (via Nets)
    4. Phoenix Suns
    5. Minnesota Timberwolves
    6. New Orleans Pelicans
    7. Denver Nuggets (via Knicks)
    8. Sacramento Kings
    9. Toronto Raptors (via Nuggets)
    10. Milwaukee Bucks
    11. Orlando Magic
    12. Utah Jazz
    13. Phoenix Suns (via Wizards)
    14. Chicago Bulls

    The FO has some tools. Let’s see what they build with them.

  69. bluehill says

    Draft express has Ingram at 1 and Simmons at 2. They say this is a “deep draft” which I hadn’t heard before.

    As for Philly, they have new mgmt and a log jam upfront. Would not surprise me if they moved one of those players and took Ingram.

  70. TempleOfJamesWorthy says

    While it’s always nice to have the #1 overall pick for maximum flexibility and trade leverage, the #2 pick is in some ways ideal for the Lakers this year.

    If, as expected, Simmons goes #1, the Lakers get the player who is the best fit for their immediate needs and without the evident bust potential (I worry about Simmons’ drive/motor/competitiveness). Ingram might not pan out, but the hype and lamentations will be 1/10th what they would be with the #1 overall pick.

    If the 76ers decide to go with Ingram, then the Lakers are in essence “forced” to gamble on the potential of Simmons and, again, if Simmons doesn’t develop, the wailing and gnashing of teeth over a wasted draft pick will be 1/10th that of a #1 overall pick bust.

  71. R says

    Fern, appreciate your enthusiasm but check out the T Wolves roster. Nance is a rotation guy and DAR learned something this past season – well, we can hope.

    LT, I saw the article too … interesting its all about the shoes isn’t it?

    I doubt Simmons has any leverage to force his way to LA although I can see why it would be a preferred destination to Philly.

    rr, I like your plan!

  72. Busboys4me says

    What a relief!!! Philly please draft Simons!!! We need a wing to play D and who can shoot. Philly would be the longest team in the league with Simons. Great for them. I’ll take Russell, Clarkson, Ingram, Randle, Whiteside any day and twice on Sundays. The bench with Sweet Lou, Bass (pay him), Nance, Anthony Brown and Free Agents will work quite well for the time being.

    I don’t see anyone other than LaBrawn and KD as max players. Derozan’s shot is broken and he is too inconsistent (I don’t want him). Azeli (uh never). I would shoot for Whiteside and Allen Crabbe (Portland). I would overpay for both of them. Poison pills if necessary. I would also love a point guard who would stay in Russell’s ear and on his behind and get him to where he needs to go as a professional. Huertes is good, but he’s slow and didn’t really command Russell’s respect. Price would have been perfect to teach the kid some semblance of defense. World Peace can be a coach for Randle. I don’t know if we still need him as a player. Lastly, I hope Thon Maker is available with the 32nd pick. Now that kid just needs seasoning and strength training. He’s going to be special. He, like Karl-Anthony Towns (KAT), can do everything. He would be our entry into the new era of Ball. Anthony Davis, KAT, Prozingis and Maker are the New Era big men.

  73. Fern says

    Wencan criticize the FO all day bit they been wise on the Draft. This should be a no brainer. But like Robert mentioned we thought the same last year. But i think the talent gap between the top 2 and the rest is more pronounced than last Draft.

  74. BigCitySid says

    -This has been the best month of the season. 1st Walton, then the #2 pick. YES!

  75. Mid-Wilshire says

    For those of you still fixating on DeRozan (I, myself, was very interested in him at one time), I would add a word of caution: he ain’t leaving Toronto.

    Even though the Raptors are getting stomped on right now by Cleveland, Toronto is, after all, in the Eastern Conference Finals. He may not want to give that up…especially for a chance to play with a bunch of post-adolescents.

    I believe DeRozan will stay put. Durant, too.

    If DeRozan really misses LA, he can always come home during summer.

    Whiteside, on the other hand, is get-able, although there’ll be a bidding war for him.

    We’ll see what happens.

  76. Anonymous says

    Fern- Roberts arguments conveniently leave out the inconsistent playing time Byron gave him and Byrons lack of leadership with the young guys in he squad. The fact our rookie did as well as he did not withstanding the poor guidance he received from Byrin is actually pretty impressive.

  77. Robert says

    I would only trade the pick for a ridiculous overpayment. Otherwise – just continue with the youth movement with vets sprinkled in for a bit of stability (Young and Williams are not in that category).

  79. Fern says

    @Mid im with you. All this KD and Derozan leaving was pending how deep their teams went.Unless some cataclysmic locker room imploding choke job in the first round happened they weren’t moving and with the rising cap both teams specially the Thunder can add that 3rd wheel they sorely need. Even if both teams don’t make it to the Finals they have to feel good about their future. KD is an all time player but Derozan? he is not in that level.

  80. Fern says

    Changing the subject briefly, I can’t really measure how good the Cavs really are when all they have faced are pushovers. The East is so weak. Don’t get me wrong the Cavs are a good team but all those other east teams would had been either lower seed teams or miss the playoffs if they were in the West. The West is like a gaunlet from hell specially in the playoffs. This Cavs “dominance” looks like smoke and mirrors to me.

  81. A Horse with no name says

    I’ve looked at a lot of tape on both Ingram and Simmons. I like Ingram for fit with the players we have and his potential in Luke’s offense. Both guys have very high ceilings; Simmons probably has the highest upside. He is a reliable jumper away from stardom. I think Philly would have a very difficult time passing on Simmons, because of his star potential and ability to step in and run the team immediately. Ingram’s upward path will take longer; I still expect the lakers to spend on veteran wings if they draft and keep Ingram, as he won’t be able to contribute much his rookie year. I hope they keep their pick, but I would be okay with trading for a high level, 2 way wing if availabile. Whatever happens, keeping the pick will prove huge on speeding up the rebuild.

  82. Alex says

    There is no way the Lakers trade the #2. Reason is, it’s not only two great young assets (such as Ingram and Russell) for a now-better one (such as George or Cousins), but also the difference in salary you’re absorbing, about $8M, which is a third rotational player.

    Unless Pacers accepted a lesser offer, like #2, Clarkson, and Nick or Lou, which preserves our best youngs and the salary swing goes the other way, freeing up more possibilities on the FA front. But then, for the reasons from Indiana’s perspective, highly unlikely.

    76ers will be tempted to take Ingram, but will probably take Simmons and leave us the better player at a lower cost.

  83. Alex says

    I would also think that we just got pretty attractive for any young veteran, like Whiteside or Derozan, who can go be with a talented group close to him in age if slightly younger, and no higher pecking order yet. That’s going into the Kobe role in Los Angeles, with a bunch of quality young players around you, with potential to play together for a decade. What’s better than that, take a pay cut to stay in Miami?

  84. Fern says

    I have to agree with Alex, the Heat asking Whiteside to take a paycut when he can get a max elsewhere, I don’t think he is Spurs stupid. I don’t think that can sit well with him specially after he had to earn his payday the hard way. Basically coming from nothing. If Saint Riley do that consider him gone…

  86. Chearn says

    Did you ever doubt that the Lakers would retain their pick? Three of basketball’s major markets were 1, 2, and 3.

    Simmons basketball IQ is otherworldly. This kid will not be a bust even if he never develops a jump shot because he has all the other requisite offensive skills. He’s 19 athletic and is a willing defender. A good player on a horrible college team is exposed when playing against the upper-echelon college teams that are dominated by a high-caliber coaches’ system tend to appear ineffective. That was Simmons. While watching LSU, Quarterman the point guard had no concept of running a college program, and shot the ball at every opportunity. The coach’s offensive schemes were anemic at best. LSU didn’t play defense were sloppy and undisciplined.

    Just wait till Simmons gets to the open court of the NBA with players that know how to make an entry pass into the post so he can dissect the opponent similar to LeBron.

    I like Ingram also, but his frame is scary. Let’s hope he remains healthy and is more like Durant and Reggie Miller before him because that kid is rail thin with a beautiful stroke.

  87. Dom says

    Now that the pick is in place time to look at fits for Luke’s style and culture. One thing about GS their players seem to have high basketball IQ’s. That lets Whiteside out. I am leery when Miami who has PRiley as the decision maker, didnt sign him to an extention. HUGE red flag. Im watching Derozan play right now against the Cavs and he doesnt have an above average perimeter game. In fact it seems as though Lowry is the real driving force.m Also Derozan seems to be a step slow on the defensive end. The Lakers need shooters. Randle has shown limited range and need room to operate in the low post. Having a Whiteside type who seems to be a traditional big would just seem to clog things up on the offensive end. GS runs a lot of high pick and roll, I can see Whiteside thriving there but there are other just as effective or more effective options that arent head cases. I still like Ezeli, and HBarnes even though both are RFA. Still the best UFA is AHorford in terms of the Lakers needs at center. Horford hits the 3, rebounds has a great veteran presence.