Welcome to a new off-season series focused on how players currently under contract with the Lakers can improve their games from last season to this one. Whether they are young players or veterans, there are always things that can be bettered withing the context of what the Lakers want to do on both sides of the ball. Our first installment is on Larry Nance Jr.
For Larry Nance Jr. it did not take long for fans to go from “who is he?” on draft night to one of their favorite Lakers from this past season. From the highlight dunks to the hustle plays to his team first attitude, Nance has a lot of redeeming qualities that fans ate up. But with a higher profile comes higher expectations and fans will be looking for Nance to make positive strides in his second season.
And while Nance came into the league as a 22 year old (and will turn 24 next January), he still has areas in which he can grow. Some will point to his age as a negative in that regard, but the fact that he came to game late and did not develop physically until after his crohn’s disease was diagnosed in highschool, his age is not too much of a negative in my eyes. Still, though, the ability to develop — even at a more advanced age than most 2nd year players — doesn’t mean it will actually happen.
But Lakers fans have high hopes it will. By all accounts Nance is a hard worker who takes to coaching well. Where that work is best directed is another question, especially in the wake of Luke Walton’s hiring and how that might translate to an adjusted role. With that, let’s take a deep dive.
Below is Nance’s shot chart from this past season. It looks like a fairly typical chart of a PF who played in a traditional offense.
A couple of general observations:
- Nance took most of his shots in the restricted area and finished well. His 65.1% rate from that distance is better than Paul Millsap (61.6%) and a tick below Anthony Davis (67.7%).
- Nance showed a nice ability to hit jumpers from the left baseline and elbow areas. These are classic release points for big men who camp on the weak side while middle or strong side P&R’s are run. They also serve as the drop pass point for pick and pops run from the left wing going middle.
The rest of Nance’s chart starts to give us insight into areas where he can improve. Per NBA.com’s stats tool, Nance only shot 32% on catch and shoot jumpers. Further, Nance only produced .83 points per play and 44% shooting as the roll man in the P&R. This tells me Nance did not do a lot of hard rolling to the rim, instead settling into the mid-range where he would end up shooting a jumper.
Also, Nance only attempted 10 total 3-pointers all season and only made one. The game after he hit that lone three, we discussed Nance’s offense and why he was becoming a fixture in the Lakers’ lineup. I stand by the root of that analysis, but as the season progressed what became evident was Nance still showed a bit too much hesitation on shooting the long ball and continues to need to work on his jumper in general. Improved confidence from increased reps should help that, but it will still need to be carried over to the court.
With Walton coming on board for next season and his desires to run an offense similar to what the Warriors run, it becomes more clear Nance will need to shore up some of the above areas.
His ability to be a threat as a dive man in the P&R will need to improve. Some of that will likely come with improved health (Nance nursed an achy knee post-All Star break), but even more will need to come with consistent aggressiveness when playing in those actions.
He will also need to show more assertiveness as a shooter and continue to try and stretch his range beyond the arc. Nance was known to work on his 3-point shooting after practices and that will need to continue through this summer and into next season. I don’t think anyone is saying he needs to be a 35%+ shooter from distance next season, but the willingness to take that shot with confidence will help open the floor for himself and his teammates.
Nance may never end up being anything more than a fine rotation player/3rd big man or a role-player type of starter who does the dirty work and has the occasional highlight play and nice scoring game. His work on the glass, defensive instincts, and plus-athleticism already give him a nice foundation to become that exact type of player.
But if he can really grow his offensive game to include a reliable jumper and, even better, a jumper with range beyond the arc, he can be even more than that. Add to that an ability to leverage his athleticism into being a better P&R finisher and his ceiling raises a notch or two. I’m sure both the Lakers and Nance are hoping more for the latter, even if the former would still be quite useful.
Shaun says
I think a lot of what we hope from Nance will really depend on his knees. We saw him miss time at the end of the year because of them and it was a concern of every team during the draft.
Craig W. says
Watching him play, his biggest downside is his hesitation before he shoots. It is as if he has to think about the court before any decision is made. This is indicative of someone who came to basketball late. Compound this with Byron’s 1-on-1 centric offense and I totally understand why he would never take a shot as a first option.
Luke will look for spacing and taking a shot if you are in a comfortable position. Larry was the dominant player on his college team and took them to ‘the dance’ for the first time in a while. This means he has experience with being the focal point of some things. Luke should be able to get him more comfortable with his shooting.
Given what I have said above, I really expect a big jump from him this year and we should have an indication of his value by the all-star break. This gives the team some time to make trades as the talent distribution of the team becomes evident.
Archon says
Love Nance’s basketball I.Q. That along with his athleticism already makes him a rotational player in the NBA. In fact if he could ever develop into a league average shooter from 3 I could see Nance starting at the 4 and Randle being put on the trading block.
Anonymous says
Larry Nance Jr 2015 NBA Draft Scouting Video – Weaknesses:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZJbaERUoeQ
He looked like he improved a bit last year over his senior year in college. Still, I don’t think he will ever be an offensive force – a bit mechanical in his movement.
I think he’s a rotation player and that’s fine.
matt says
My intuition tells me dragen bender will fall to Orlando at pick #11
A Horse With No Name says
Larry’s explosiveness is very high level. His coordination isn’t. As I’ve noted before, he’s a bit clumsy: mistimes jumps, fumbles around a bit. I agree with Anonymous that he looks a bit mechanical; somewhat reminiscent of Harrison Barnes. In fact, if his knees hold up, a very good ceiling comp would be Harrison Barnes. That would be great: if he gets the corner three down, moves without the ball, cuts to the rim, and uses short dribble drives to get to the rack he’d have a solid role playing offensive game. Where he could really exceed Barnes is on the defensive end by disrupting passing lanes and blocking shots with his absurd length. He could end up being a valuable piece on a very good team. (He should go to Germany for the Kobe knee voodoo.)
A Horse With No Name says
Matt: I like your reasoning self.
Lakers & Law says
In addition to his shot, I would like to see him improve his handle to the point where he could spend some time as a 3 in a big lineup. He has the athleticism to guard 3s if he could improve that area of his game.
Warren Wee Lim says
I like Junior alot. I believe he is our long-term solution at PF. Much hype on Randle, but I think eventually he goes out in a deal or becomes the leader of the 2nd unit ala Lamar Odom.
Junior is a highly-skilled player but his ceiling isn’t very high. He is almost made up, being a senior in College and 24 years of age. But his game can evolve alot under the right circumstances. Under Walton, he could be a SF for all I care.
He has the tools, he has the work ethic and he has the body to be successful. For what its worth, he has the right attitude too. Expect him to get the starting nod. Either as PF or SF.
matt says
Lakers nailed the pick on nance jr, no one picked after him seems to be any good
LKK says
Here is a great article about the architect and coach of the Lakers’ first dynasty, John Kundla. As we ponder the ramifications of the increased salary cap and the millions of dollars that all that involves, I enjoy looking back and learning about the roots of the league. As we anticipate the future, we can always learn from the past.
“Almost 100, ‘Forgotten Legend of Basketball’ Still Marvels at the Game – NYTimes.com”
http://teamstre.am/1WyBc12
matt says
Larry nance jr,
season high
points 17
Rebounds 14
Also remember who coached last year
Improvement is coming for all our players most importantly teamwork
If coached correctly nance can be the bully on our team, hitting opponents with tuff fouls
Anonymous says
in that case we should bring Byron back as a toughness coach to work specifically with LNJ
Fern says
I think Jr is a glue kind of guy, long term solution at pf?No he is not Draymond Green so stop it. Randle is a better player than him. He is a good hustler player with a good engine but let’s not get carried away. In other news the Cavs are in trouble when Steph and Klay stink up the joint and still lose by 15. I loved Steve Kerr breaking the board, the way i see it, don’t get me wrong i love Luke and i think he will be great but since he is the coach of the Lakers now he tried to tell Kerr what to do and Kerr went the Rock on him like ” know your role and shut your mouth jabroni” That was for Luke make no mistake about it, i like my coaches to look composed but not like robots or at the edge of a heart attack like the Van Gundys. That was hilarious…
Anonymous says
The lakers biggest problem is their defense.. The Warriors were a top notch offensive team but until they hired Ron Adams for defense, there wasn’t a championship. I am reminded of the amoeba zone that Boyd Grant and Ron Adams used at Fresno State. Every year they were top 10 in defense. That is with 2 and 3 star recruits. I hope Kupcake gets fired this year. Why does he put his stamp and picture on everything lakers and that includes the assistant coaches. Old school coaches are who they say they are. Bring in a new head coach and hire whomever they choose as assistants.
Renato Afonso says
He an obviously improve but unless Randle’s development is non-existent on the defensive side, Nance can’t play starters minutes on a conference finals team. He needs to improve his coordination, thus improving his finishing on the PnR, and rather than improving his 3 point shot I’d rather have him develop the elbow and shot baseline jumpers even more. If he becomes automatic from those spots, like it is stated above, he will have his minutes either as the pick setter or the weakside big on PnR actions.
On the defensive side, while he is explosive I think he’s missing a little bit of lower strength to hold his own against more physically imposing bigs. We must assume his rotations will keep improving, so man to man defense should be his main concern. With more lower body strength you don’t need to try and block every shot, using angles and court position to bait the opponent into bad shots.
Also, let’s stop with this “he can play the 3 if he learns how to shoot 3 pointers” non-sense. He doesn’t have the skill to be effective on the wings. People think about 3 and D players for the SF position but keep forgetting that those players have great shooting mechanics and have very nimble feet when guarding opposing wings. He is a pure PF and, due to his lack of coordination, should improve at that. Having him improve other stuff before he can totally master what he’s already good at would be cutting his ceiling lower than already is. He can be a solid rotation player for years to come. A very good pick by the FO.
Vasheed says
Nance wasn’t even 100% healthy last year after coming off an ACL injury in college. So he will only get better. He isn’t a liability on either end of the court. If he can extend his range out to the 3 point line he would be a very well rounded starting PF.
He does have a weird looking shooting stroke with the elbow coming forward. He seems to get it to work but, I think he may need to rework his mechanics to become a 3 point shooter.
PurpleBlood says
Thanks for the link LKK
___
Love Jr.! Hope he can raise his level of play, and more importantly perhaps, that his knees don´t betray him.
Craig W. says
Exactly why do posters want LNJ to become something he is not – that is like trying to improve Steph Curries’ rebounding? Let him become who he is. Maybe he will expand a little beyond that, but we are trying to make every player perfect. None are, none will be. Shaun Livingston doesn’t shoot 3ptrs, but you don’t see the Warriors trying to make him a 3pt shooter – they take what he does well and integrate it into what other talent they have.
Stop trying to make chicken salad out of roast beef.
Fern says
Amen Craig!!!
Fern says
People here think this is edit a player in 2k16. Its becoming ridiculous.
Baylor Fan says
The player I would like to see Nance learn from is Shaun Livingston. Nance looks like he is over thinking almost every play. He catches the ball and then decides what he is going to do. Defenses do not give players the luxury of an extra second to make decisions. Livingston looks like he is playing in pick-up games; looking for holes in the defense and exploiting them. He is not hesitant and is very fluid. Nance will be a good project player for Walton to develop.
Anonymous says
Livingston has a handle. Nance not so much.
J C says
I was noticing Sean Livingston last year.
What a perfect piece for that team.
Very steady and effective.
I was even fantasizing about having him on the Lakers until I realized he’s on the wrong side of 30.
Livingston is a great example, though, of “older” players or veterans being a vital part of a successful program.
He’s the type of midtier player we should consider when building the roster.
matt says
If the thunder would’ve eliminated the warriors it would’ve been a disaster for the nba, they have too much invested in Steph curry
Clay Bertrand says
Larry could blossom into a multi tool role player or glue guy-do a little of everything starter (Like a super impoverished man’s version of Draymond Green). He certainly has weaknesses like all players. I don’t see anything wrong with him trying to extend his range and work on his handles but I certainly agree with Craig W that players strengths should be maximized to the team benefit.
There’s a fine line between EXPANDING a players game and CHANGING who he is as a player or trying to make him something he’s not. We want guys to push their abilities and become proficient at as many things as they can. We do not want a guy to ABANDON his inside game and desire to finish close in favor of camping out or constantly seeking out the three point line to launch threes. We don’t want to take away from what he already does, we just want to augment his game and add where appropriate and possible. At the end of the day we want a NET GAIN in productivity.
I would add that DEFENSIVELY, Larry is the most fundamentally sound and the most astute player under contract IMO. He understands containment and he has an uncanny knack for knowing the position to be in to keep a perimeter player stuck between shooting and driving. I also think he is the only player who has an advanced understanding of team rotations. After all, he was a decorated defender at Wyoming. Certainly something he can continue to build on that WON’T take away from other parts of his game.
rr says
Exactly why do posters want LNJ to become something he is not
—
At whom and at what comments in this thread are you directing this? Same question for Fern.
Clay Bertrand says
“I hope Kupcake gets fired this year. Why does he put his stamp and picture on everything lakers and that includes the assistant coaches. Old school coaches are who they say they are. Bring in a new head coach and hire whomever they choose as assistants.”
________________________________________________________________
This seems to be somewhat out of left field. What exactly is this comment referring to?? Mitch Kupchak is not trying to “put his stamp” on the Laker’s assistant coaches much less “everything Lakers.” Brian Shaw is Luke Walton’s first choice for the Lead Assistant position. They’re relationship dates back to when both were players (I believe Walton was a rookie in Shaw’s last season) and when Shaw was an assistant under Phil Jackson while Luke played. It’s even been a bit awkward for the organization to accept Shaw back because of the acrimonious way he left but they have done so at the behest of Luke.
Clearly, if Mitch Kupchak was doing the coaching hires for all the assistants without input from Luke Walton, THEY WOULD ALL BE HIRED ALREADY. Instead, we are all waiting on Luke to finish with the Ws so he can get his coaching staff in order.
While there have been ample opportunities to criticize the Front Office over the past few years, I don’t see the most recent developments as worthy of negative criticism.
Craig W. says
Kevin Love is a fantastic 3pt shooter, rebounder, and passer. One of the real problems with his time in Cleveland is they put him in a position that he can’t use all his strengths and want him to be something else. It is hard to be both a 3pt shooter and an excellent rebounder. If you are going to employ Kevin, however, don’t stand him out at the 3pt line and nullify both his rebounding and passing talents. It takes real thought to evolve a system that takes advantage of your player’s skills; if it didn’t then Byron would have been much more successful.
A couple of posters here commented that LNJ could play the 3, if he only would develop a 3pt shot – probably ain’t gonna happen. This desire to change players’ personality has been present in any post where we have discussed our young core.
david h says
darius: for some of us, this is what we we’re doing back in the 60’s. for some of you this is what your parents were doing back in the 60’s. and for some of you, this is what your grandparents were doing back in the 60’s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI-skRgvtZ8&index=1&list=PLZuQgph8utVtcezLI3amUmUcJ6toZ1r3J
can’t help but look at what Luke Walton is doing during warriors games and picturing him as lakers head coach next year…..gray hair I would imagine.
keep up the good work darius. at least we got the nba finals to keep us amused.
Happy Friday.
Go lakers
Clay Bertrand says
Craig W,
I understand your point and I agree to an extent. However, I think that you are referring to two different concepts:
1.) Teaching an Old Dog New Tricks/Skills like having Kevin Love, an established NBA Vet and 3 time All Star, do things that he didn’t do before when he was playing at an ALL STAR level.
VS.
2.) Teaching a Young Dog New Tricks/Skills like having a second year player in Nance continue to expand his range and his handles as he continues to grow into his NBA potential.
These are totally different scenarios—two different dogs. Perhaps your example just isn’t a perfect one for illustrating what you mean. Love is established and his strengths are a known commodity. He carved out his game for years in Minny and then was placed into a different mold in Cleveland. Another similar example closer to home is D’Antoni having the supremely talented post player Pau linger around the 3 point line and space the floor. Can Pau shoot a 3 here and there?? Sure. Is it his strength or even something he does at an average clip?? NO. Did it totally reduce his post touches and ability to create and pass out of the post reducing his overall effectiveness?? Absolutely.
I see where some discuss Larry at the 3. We have to understand Larry at the 3 is a versatility move–its merely an option depending on match ups. I don’t see Larry at the 3 as any kind of permanent position for him because he isn’t a natural wing. I don’t think the Lakers have any illusions that he is a primary wing player.
I think people need to realize cross match ups and non positional basketball a little more to grasp guys playing multiple positions. For example, I think Larry can guard some 3s and match up pretty well with them ON D. However, as a space making wing in a space and pace offense where others are the offensive threats, Larry would need the shooting range to be a threat and create the necessary floor space.
Since Larry doesn’t have that range, he straddles the SF (3) position as he is capable on the defensive end, yet not an ideal 3 on the offensive end (at least, not right now). He is a 4 who can slide to the 3 on D only or to 3 on both ends in certain match ups. If he can add more consistent shooting and more range, it just helps the floor spacing regardless of if he plays the 3 or the 4.
I don’t want Larry leading fast breaks, driving and kicking, or covering point guards. I just want him to broaden his shooting skills to allow for more positional flexibility and I want him to be more of a threat Offensively. I really think he will do these things over time. Kawhi Leonard was always a hesitant shooter until he added that element of confident (and effective) shooting to his game. Larry will come around similarly IMO (not that I’m saying he will reach Leonard’s heights).
Craig W. says
david h,
Being one of those who lived that era – thanks! It was really fun.
Gary says
I don’t see Nance being anything more than a rotational big/spot starter – in my mind there is nothing wrong with that.
Depending on the opposing match up he could play 10 minutes or 25 minutes on a given night. He has the quickness to be a very good defender, but let’s not forget he’s a SF sized PF (closer to 6’8″ and 225 pounds). His offensive game limits his upside. He can hit the open mid range jumper, that’s a very good thing, but he’s not going to create his own shot on a regular basis.
He’s going to be a valuable role player for the Lakers. I don’t see the huge upside that some of you see.
Clay Bertrand says
Gary,
“He’s going to be a valuable role player for the Lakers. I don’t see the huge upside that some of you see.”
____________________________________________________________
Nance will be a versatile supporting/role player. Every good team needs em. As you say, “nothing wrong with that.” Nothing indeed!! Just ask Golden State…..Their role players got them game 1 against the Cavs while their stars were not aligned!!
Vasheed says
Many fans want Nance to try the SF position so that the Lakers can play both Randle and Nance. Fans want to see Nance play because he is a good player. Outside of situautional circumstances though I don’t think this is a great idea. This goes back to as I’ve stated in previous threads how some the Lakers have redundancy in that some of their best players essentially play the same position.
Nance may not be a first or 2nd option on offense. However, he is a nice glue guy who does everything well that you could want. Nance may provide enough at the PF position that you want to trade Randle to fill in another position where the Lakers are weaker.
Fern says
Nance can’t play the wing because as it’s already been stated. He don’t have the shooting touch and he don’t have the speed and athelticism to be chasing after modern day wings. In a way he is a throwback he is a poor’s man version of Blake Griffin. The Lakers need to make sure he work on his strengths. Yeah let’s put him on the wing and have him chase the likes of KD and Paul George, let’s see how that’s gonna work out. He can be a pretty nice role player/glue kind of guy and hopefully is going to be part of the core that we are developing…
Craig W. says
If Luke Walton is to be our coach (he is) and he is able to bring some of the concepts of flexibility that exist with Golden State (I hope), then all this talk about position is really limiting ourselves.
LNJ is an athletic 6’9″ banger who hasn’t been playing basketball as long as some of the other players – never mind who his father is. I think he should develop some of his instinctual skills and reactions more than his shot. If he is more fluid, then he will fit the somewhat position-less offensive game the we think Walton might favor.
I don’t want any of our players hanging out on the 3pt line, but constantly moving, based on defenses and other player’s movement. This would fit with LNJ and I could easily see he and Randle working together for stretches in a game – it doesn’t have to be 20 min stretches, just 7 minute ones. More like hockey lines than NBA teams. Think outside the box.
Clay Bertrand says
“Welcome to a new off-season series focused on how players currently under contract with the Lakers can improve their games from last season to this one.”
_________________________________________________________________________
I can’t be the only one waiting with bated breath for the Swaggy P write up………… ; )
rr says
matt June 2, 2016 at 7:41 pm
Lakers nailed the pick on nance jr, no one picked after him seems to be any good
—
You need to Google Nikola Jokic ASAP.