I truly believe Ben Simmons is going to be the #1 overall pick. Simmons is too talented, has too much star potential for the 76ers to pass on him.
Philly has been waiting for the moment to grab this type of player for too long; they have suffered trusted the process through too much. But Brandon Ingram may tempt them. Just as he’s the best of both worlds prospect for the Lakers, he offers the same appeal to every other team in the draft, including Philly.
Even if the odds are low the Lakers end up with the chance to draft Simmons, it’s worthwhile to explore him as a prospect and his fit on the team.
There is a reason Simmons has been considered the top prospect in this draft since before he was even a freshman at LSU. Physically, Simmons already has an “NBA” body. Standing 6’10” and weighing 240 pounds with a 8’11” standing reach and a 7’0.5″ wingspan, Simmons has really good physical tools. Combine those tools with his superior athleticism and the result is the type of rarely seen specimen whose potential jumps off the screen when you watch him on tape.
Simmons runs like a gazelle and jumps out of the gym. The way he changes ends, with or without the ball, is phenomenal and leads to the types of open court chances he thrives on.
This really cannot be overstated: Simmons ability to push the ball with speed dribbles or fill the lane on the wing and be a high level finisher in either scenario, at his size, creates the types problems defenses have a hard time solving. As he gets even physically stronger by further filling into his frame, the type of fear he will incite in the open court has the chance of mirroring what players like Westbrook and LeBron inspire.
Besides leveraging his athleticism in the open court offensively, he also can do so on the other end on the backboards and defensively. He’s shown a good ability to step out and defend on the perimeter, both when guarding his own man or when stepping out in the pick and roll. He has shown good instincts and anticipation in the passing lanes and can turn opponents’ hasty decisions into easy baskets going the other way.
His most special trait, though, isn’t is size, ball handling, defensive potential, or ability to finish in the paint. It’s his passing. Simmons possesses the rare combination of being a willing and instinctive passer, but with the size of a power forward. It’s one thing to find players like this at point guard or even in pure wings, but Simmons is a PF/SF who can pass in the open court, out of isolation from the top of the floor, and from the post when working the block. He can see plays developing ahead of time and has shown that rare court sense of being able to pass his teammates into open shots.
Simmons is not without weakness, however. At this stage of his development, his jumper is not good. Be it because of an over-reliance on his ability to get to the rim, a lack of confidence, or a combination of both, Simmons showed little inclination to be a proactive jump shooter at LSU. He often turned down open shots to try and force his way to the basket and when he did end up shooting the results were not great.
Beyond his shooting woes, in the 2nd half of his college season, questions about his motor and commitment started to surface. Jonathan Givony of Draft Express and The Vertical expressed many of those concerns (and more) back in March and some of those concerns persist with only a week until the draft.
As I write this the NBA Finals are headed to a game 7 mostly on the back of the competitive drive and skill of LeBron James. Many look at Simmons’ size + skill combination and like to compare him to James, but if there are questions about Simmons’ drive to win or to be a great player (and not just a highlight machine), those are not critiques which have hounded James — especially not in the early portion of his career.
Do these things give me some pause? Of course. But I am a big believer in talent. And when the proper structure is provided to nurture and develop that talent, those concerns start to melt away.
For the Lakers, then, I would embrace Simmons. Yes, his future is likely at power forward — the same position Julius Randle plays. No, his shooting is not refined at this point which leads to questions about spacing. Further, he’s a player who is at his best with the ball in his hands which is also true of Russell, Clarkson, and Randle (not to mention Lou Williams and we haven’t even gotten to free agency yet).
His fit, at this point, is not ideal and there would be a fair amount of kinks to work out, long term, for the Lakers and Simmons to mesh in a way where the roster would be optimized with him as a focal point. And while this matters, it doesn’t particularly phase me all that much.
Because whether or not you believe Simmons is the type of generational talent who can transform a franchise by himself (I don’t know how anyone would know this for sure, by the way), his skill set is fantastic and unique while his ceiling is incredibly high. The key attributes he possesses — the athleticism, passing, feel for the game — aren’t really things you can teach. The things he currently lacks, skill wise — namely, his shooting — are things you can improve.
This doesn’t mean he will improve, of course. But, I’d bet that he does and I’d be more than happy to have the opportunity to see him get the chance to do so on the Lakers.
DancinMarkMadsen says
Nice write up.
Ryan Smith says
The lakers really have the easiest spot in the draft, take whoever the sixers don’t between Ingram and Simmons. While I prefer Ingram I am completely fine with Simmons and Luke’s free flowing system would ease his fit alongside Randle.
John Citizen says
Although i really dont like Kevin Ding, i think i will watch out for him couple days from now as he was the first to say last year that the Lakers will Take Russell.
Adam says
Although I’m like most and think Simmons goes #1 and Ingram #2, I too have thought about a potential Lakers team consisting of Simmons, Randle, Clarkson, and Russel. Having those four on the court with a mobile 5 could be a brand of basketball that we’ve never seen before. All 4 have the ability to handle the ball and be play makers or attack the basket.
It would be so fun to watch these guys run a fast break. Randle can gobble up defensive boards and either take the ball himself or outlet it to 3 other guys to lead the break. If Walton can build an offense around the off-the-ball movement and quick passing principles that make the Warriors so fun to watch, these Lakers could be even more fun.
Tone Desh says
Great write up. I totally agree with all your points about Simmons. I think Ingram is the better pick for the Lakers but if by chance Philly takes him at 1, I’ll still jump for joy for Simmons in a Lakers jersey.
Renato Afonso says
Nothing to add here. I think everyone agrees that we’ll be more than happy to select the player left on board. Selecting Simmons will most likely require a trade further down the road. Selecting Ingram does not.
Comrade says
Good point. And I think with Simmons history with Russell and the fact that he grew up a lakers fan and has been seen in public wearing a magic jersey, he wants to be a laker. So, if he turns out to be a generational talent we can always sign him in free agency later down the road. I personally think he will end up being that type of talent. Ingram could be special too. We could end up with both later down the road
matt says
Much respect to lebron cuz he’s killing it.
Steph curry’s wife tweeted “the league is rigged”
david h says
Thanks Darius; props to you on your Simmons analysis. Six more days and we’ll soon find out.
Happy Father’s Day.
Go Lakers
macster says
I just think that something is up. It wouldn’t surprise me if Simmons ended up as a Laker. Stranger things have happen. Now the most worrisome part is this, will the Lakers pass on him for someone else?
M~
matt says
With the earlier talk of giving derozan a max deal, makes me think, who would you rather have derozan or simmons on a rookie contract, both are not the greatest shooters.
I would go with simmons.
DancinMarkMadsen says
Please, please, no Derozan. He’s a poor man’s Kobe (inefficient volume shooter) and no one needs that to win games.
Alex says
I agree with Adam’s and others’ points on BSimmons and our team composition. Darius – The question I keep asking myself about Simmons is, can he just play the 1 full time, like Magic, especially if you have another similar mobile player with handles playing the 4? Both Simmons and Randle can defend smaller players, but smaller players would not contain those two, 500 lbs of racing/post-up horsepower. Stretching the floor could be an issue, but with decent mid-range from the 1/4 and a couple of strong 3pt shooters on the floor, this could be a non issue. The Greek Freak thrived last season and will in the next with playing the 1 even in today’s league, Ben should be even better. What are your and the forum’s thoughts on Ben playing the 1?
Baylor Fan says
Simmons will need to play the wing in the NBA. That would emphasize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses with the huge exception of his lack of outside shooting. His reluctance to shoot is like Nance’s hesitation on steroids. I agree that he can improve in that area but it will take time. His free throw percentage is above hack a Shaq levels suggesting that he can shoot better than he has shown. Everyone on the floor is going to love him on offense since he is reluctant to shoot and is so expert at delivering the ball.
Gian says
Nice write-up. Lakers win either way unless the FO gets crazy.
KevTheBold says
Great analysis Darius !
As I said before, though I prefer Ingram, I would be excited to snag Ben, and hope that my concerns are unfounded.
@ Alex, I don’t see him at the 1, as he lacks the ability to stretch the floor.
Vasheed says
Problem with having Simmons and Randle,you have zero floor spacing unless they also had a Center that could drain 3’s. Not sure if it would work as a line up but, it would be “interesting”.
If Ingram goes first though, no question the Lakers should draft Simmons.
John L says
I’m not sure why the consensus is that if the Lakers draft Simmons that means they’ll have to trade Randle. If you’ve watched the Warriors they pretty much have a position-less system. Draymond even plays the 5. And the idea that Randle, Clarkson, Russell, and Simmons would all need the ball in their hands doesn’t make sense if the Lakers plan on running the Warriors system since it’s predicated on not only ball and player movement but most importantly playing off ball and getting wide open shots and lanes to the basket with all the off ball screens that they set for each other. So many times we hear Draymond talk about not going into hero ball. I would think this philosophy is what Luke would bring which means it would deter Russell, Clarkson, Julius, and Simmons going into hero iso ball. If D’Angelo develops into the shooter that was was been projected to be based on his Ohio St days and Jordan improves his 3 ball another 3 percentage points they should be fine. If the Lakers draft Simmons, just like Draymond, I would actually play him at the 5 on D since he’s 6’10” and will likely be 250 lbs by the start of the season. I would then just get another tweener that can D up the 3’s and 4’s and shoot, perhaps Marvin Williams. This would allow the Lakers to play a similar style of D that the Warriors play in which they could switch everything. Many forget that before the position-less Warriors there were the Showtime Lakers in which Worthy switched between the 2, 3, and 4, Coop played the 1, 2, and 3, and Magic played any of the 5 positions. And they too, before the Warriors, would always set off ball screens allowing Magic to find the open cutters. And Magic rarely ever held on to the ball more than 3 seconds in the half court. Like the Warriors and Spurs, that ball was always moving and teammates were always setting off ball screens and cutting to the basket. Because of Magic’s size he could easily see over the defense and hit the open cutter. If the Lakers get Simmons I would expect Luke to play him the same way. Therefore, no trade is necessarily required. But we’ll probably get Ingram so this is all moot.
DancinMarkMadsen says
The fit with Randle keeps coming up in these comments. At this point, Julius has prolific rebounding ability and a solid handle, but nothing else. He is a terrible shooter, doesn’t stop the ball at the point of attack, gets lost on rotations, can’t protect the rim and doesn’t use his handle to create shots for teammates. Until he develops at least one of his minuses into a plus, he is a bench player.
bleedpurplegold says
I agree with kev in regards to simmons playing the 1. He will have the ball in his hands most of the time anyway like wings such as lbj or harden, plus i wouldnt bench JC or dlo…
I really dont care whom we gonna get, we can only win with either simmons or ingram….same with philly by the way, those 2 top picks will both be superstars…
Dom says
A point regarding Philly. The Colangelo’s cant risk passing on Simmons. That’s the best part of the Lakers having the number 2 pick. After the tanking fiasco, the unceremonious dismissal of Hinke and the ire of the Philly fans they have to take Simmons. What’s really scary that we haven’t talked about is Simmons reluctance to take open jump shots. In the NBA with defenses geared to take away your strengths you have to be well rounded. Simmons has a fantastic handle, amazing vision, was a very good rebounder for a college player. His strengths are amazing but so are his weaknesses. If the 76’ers passed on Simmons and he became a star in LA the Colangelo’s would be run out of Philly. I believe their hands and future are tied to Simmons. Last point a bad locker room is infectious. The culture surrounding Philly is one of losing and from Noel, Okafor, What happened with Carter-Williams no one wants to play their. Okafor essentially quit on them and i see Simmons doing the same. I think its a moot point as i cant see Philly passing on Simmons. Ingram is a seamless fit but in any case the team cant lose with either. With Simmons i can see a shooting coach helping and a healthy culture helping his development. As far as DAR and Randle if for some reason we ended up with Simmons i think both are on the trading block. As previously mentioned the lack of pure shooting and floor spacers becomes a major problem. trading DAR and Randle could bring in assets immediately that would be a better fit with Simmons. Given as mention the fact that DAR, JC, LouW, Randle and then Simmons are all ball dominant, this current roster doesnt seem to work at least to me with Simmons.
Archon says
Take it for what it’s worth but I have some (second hand) inside information that 76er scouts believe Simmons shot is completely broken and that there is no guarantee at all it can be fixed. If that’s the case his ceiling is closer to Lamar Odom and while Odom was a fine player he wasn’t exactly a franchise game changer.
Anonymous says
There’s a video out there that shows a chiseled Simmons draining deep Threes. Now, it could have been just a really hot 10 shot sequence but he had great height and mechanics on his shot.
If Simmons falls to us I’d be more than happy.
Berdj Rassam says
The Lakers are well-poised to make a solid addition to their 2016-17 team in the upcoming draft.
MG says
I’m always wary of a guy who develops relying on natural talent to the point he doesn’t even bother to learn how to shoot a jumper. We are seeing in NBA Finals even LeBron is a far more effective player when his jumper is falling than when it isn’t. Agree, though, he could develop it, but does he want to? And therefore, if he were the Lakers’ pick, probably won’t be, but if he were, why mortgage Randle, Clarkson AND Russell on him, if you are saying he MUST dominate the ball, making all three less effective? What good is a huge talent if he makes your other players worse or less effective, or forces you to give up on them? I don’t think he fits the current Lakers unless he could comprehend how to play with them. Russell is a gifted shooter and passer. Do we want him spotting up in corner, and Randle coming off bench? Why couldn’t a kid who can run and leap and pass play SMALL forward? only think preventing it is lack of a jumper. It would be on him to develop it. And can he defend anyone at the next level? Ingram, by contrast, seems not only multi-skilled in all areas, he seems truly interested in getting better in all areas, and multi-positional, and capable of playing with or without the ball, and capable of being a quality long defender who can shoot lights out. If I had my choice of either, for this Lakers team, I would take Ingram right now.
smokedaddy says
After reading Givony’s report, I gotta say I would seriously consider passing on the kid even if he were available. And that’s saying something given the problems with the rest of the lotto class other than Ingram.
On his talent, yes Simmons is special. He’s another Magic or Lebron. Really. Watch this ESPN piece and see if you don’t agree… http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2016/story/_/page/Coach15602825/ben-simmons-nba-ceiling
This report argues that his shot is not that bad and can improve and that his strength, hands, and lateral quickness will actually make him an exceptional defensive player.
On his fit, yes this is a problem but not something that by itself couldn’t be dealt with. When we drafted Magic it was not the best fit with Norm Nixon already at the point. Magic’s shooting got better too although it was never as bad as Simmons’ appears to be.
Where this pick looks to be a big mistake concerns the kid’s character. Read Givony. Pads his stats, pouts if he’s not the center of attention, refuses to take direction, simply refuses to put in the hard grinding work it takes to become a good shooter and defensive player. Off the court as well his record in Australia and LSU is a big red flag when it comes to leading and getting along with his teammates.
Now, sometimes kids can change their character. My experience is this tends to follow a really bad life experience which it can take a while for 1st round picks to experience and reflect on.
matt says
Reported that the 76ers had a meeting with simmons last night
Chibi says
My Simmons comp is Blake Griffin.
Michael says
I’d prefer Ingram over Simmons solely based upon character. As a coach I get the best results based upon players with the best attitude and character. Think of all those times when coaches and G.M.s say “Good locker room guy.” Ingram may not have as high of an overhead as Simmons, this will most likely be the truth. Ingram will always strive for self-perfection and never as for recognition. He will not be the one to make waves with team mates or staff.
Warren Wee Lim says
If we do end up drafting Simmons, I wouldn’t be disappointed at all. But the ability to build a balanced team will require a little bit of creativity. I am not convinced that Simmons and Randle cannot coexist, but Clarkson and Russell better be splashing threes for that lineup to have success. Also, factor in who we possibly sign in FA, coz the pool of players we can sign are in the PF range.
If we do end up picking Ingram, the lineup will have more balance and it would look more like what Luke has envisioned. I would propose signing Evan Turner and Ryan Anderson. We do need that center so we should consider looking for big men from other teams. I also like Allen Crabbe a lot.
Joe A says
Speaking of Clarkson splashing threes:
https://mobile.twitter.com/EGTBasketball/status/743522085352308736
Josh Hardin says
For me I think Simmons is the guy I want. I like Ingram and certainly won’t be disappointed when we grab him but Simmons is the typical first overall pick that can become a superstar. I don’t believe it would hurt Russell’s development mainly because they have played together in high school. They respect each other’s game and honestly after Simmon’s contract is up in Philly (Assuming they take him) he’ll probably come to LA anyway. I don’t believe we’d trade Randle if we got him but if we did, I would be a lot more okay with picking up a guy like Butler whereas at this moment I don’t want to trade for him.
Anonymous says
In his latest mock draft, Chad Ford intimates that the Lakers have expressed interest in Chriss and Brown, not with the 2nd pick, but by trading into another top 5 pick. Is Chad being Chad — and making stuff up or is there real desire by The FO to get another young stud?
That would mean the Lakers are open to moving Randle. I had not heard anything about such a deal. Would likely mean something is up with Boston or Phoemix who own the 3rd and 4th picks.
Anonymous says
Both are great players with a bright future. But I’d really like to see Ingram to LA cuz that’s who I think would impact is us the most for our future and better fit with how the team is built and vice versa with Simmons and 76ers, I really don’t see 76ers picking Ingram over Simmons because of how their roster is built, the pieces fall in place on its own. LA should also get a big man who plays aggressive and isn’t afraid to drive the ball in and can protect the rim, I’d love to see whiteside come to La. A roster with Russell, clarkson, randle, Ingram and whiteside would be very interesting and pick up Ezeli from GSW for his defense off the bench.
Fern says
Nice one Darius. I think there is some kind of consensus among some comenters here that while we prefer Ingram we would be perfectly fine if we land Simmons….
J C says
I’d like to see
Russell
Butler
Ingram
Durant – (might be enticed once the other pieces are in place)
Whiteside
Make whatever moves are necessary to get Butler as long as we retain Russell and our #2
Busboys4me says
TMac stated that Simmons walked into a room with him, Vinsanity and Bill Russell and didn’t acknowledge anyone. He just kicked it like he was the star!!!! Simmons later tweets about seeing Russell but nothing about the others….I don’t like this kid. He and DLoading on the same team is a bad mix. Two Immature, arrogant, lazy, entitled, nouveau riche brats!!!
KevTheBold says
Hey Busboy, Simmons may be spoiled, but though immature, Russell is a hard working kid with a great and respectful attitude.
Busboys4me says
If Simmons were forced upon us, I would offer Randle for Nerlens Noel to create a speed team. Finding a shooting SF would them become a priority. To tell the truth if I got Noel, I would truly believe KD would become a possibility if we (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) get Russ the following year. We would have a younger, more physically active and deeper team than he now has. End of Dream Sequence…
KevTheBold says
From the latest reads, the hint is that the 76ers will change their approach this time, taking ‘fit’ over ‘best player’.
This could mean that they are angling to take Ingram.
I hope not, as, I prefer ‘fit’ as well and we all know that Ingram fits us like a glove.
Busboys4me says
No!!!
KevTheBold says
Check it out, this may mean Simmons at our doorstep;
http://www.burlingtoncountytimes.com/sports/sixers/sixers-sixers-altering-approach-to-nba-draft/article_92872a96-32a1-11e6-a1d6-7bc59aaad5df.html
George Best says
The Sixers are taking Simmons. They can’t afford not to.
KevTheBold says
I hope so George, yet the ‘can’t afford not to’ mindset that they’ve had for the past few seasons hasn’t worked for them, so now they are considering a change.
KevTheBold says
George, If you read the article, they are seeking to create an open, flowing offence,.. something that only floor stretchers can bring and that Ingram offers to their clogged up sink.
Still, you may be right that once again, the pressure to hit the star jackpot will prevail.