Laker fans are understandably anxious to find quick evidence of two things as the season begins:
- Can Luke transform the way the team plays to create meaningful schematic advantages (like other great coaches), after suffering through two years of Byronball?
- Are the young players, individually and as a group, making the kinds of developmental strides that are critical to the team turning the ship around?
While the preseason admittedly is an imperfect medium for assessing fundamental questions of this nature—given the sample size and quality of play—I saw glimpses of progress on both fronts that offer real hope. And those observations were supported by a few trends in the team’s preseason statistics, which are highlighted below. As always, I’m sure others saw more interesting things.
Offensive Indicators
When speaking of Luke’s capacity to change the Lakers, Laker fans perhaps most frequently discuss the hope that we will move beyond Byron’s static, isolation-heavy offense to (eventually) the kinds of free-flowing systems we’ve seen from Golden State, San Antonio, Atlanta, and effective teams. And Luke and his staff have certainly said and done things to encourage this vision – an offense with thoughtful spacing and pace, quick-hitting actions that flow from each other, and all tailored around the strengths of our players.
As we all know, the Lakers were one of the least effective and imaginative offenses last year, finishing second to last in offensive efficiency, last in assist ratio (and every related team passing statistic), last in TS%, first in isolation frequency, etc. (as we highlighted at the end of last season).
The team has an eternity yet to go, but we’ve seen a few signs of progress in approach this preseason, even if the results are still not where we want them to be. For example, here is where the Lakers came out in a few high level offensive team statistics this preseason compared to last year:
| Statistic | 2016 | 2016 rank | 2017 preseason | 2017 rank |
| TS% | 50.9% | 30th | 53.4% | 15th |
| Pace | 97.99 | 16th | 104.5 | 5th |
| Assist % | 51.3% | 30th | 57.7% | 18th |
| Off. Eff. | 98.6 | 29th | 99.6 | 16th |
| Fast Break Pts | 12.2 | 17th | 19.0 | 4th |
| %FGA 3PT | 29.0% | 14th | 33.9% | 6th |
| 3FGM %AST | 73.4% | 30th | 82.1% | 21st |
| 3FGM | 7.8 | 22nd | 10.5 | — |
If these statistics hold as we see a reasonable sample size during the season, then I will be very encouraged, as they already confirm substantial improvement in key metrics. The team is shooting better, surely as a result of getting better shots through attacking more thoughtfully. The team is playing more quickly, which makes sense given their young/athletic roster, jumping to 5th in pace and 4th in fast break points.
Unsurprisingly, the team is favoring the 3 point shot more than under Byron, making nearly 3 more threes a game, and jumping to 6th in the percent of field goal attempts that are threes. Significantly, we also see a nearly 10% improvement in the number of three point shots that are assisted, which is critical given that we were last in assisted threes last year.
In short, while the team has looked admittedly sloppy for stretches this preseason as they show youth and pick up Luke’s new system, we appear to be seeing immediate payoffs in the kinds of shots and efficiency the offense generates.
Defensive Indicators
The team has also shown marked improvement on the defensive side of the ball. As we all know, the team was a disaster defensively last year, finishing last in defensive efficiency (109.3). While I expect the team to have serious issues defensively again this year, the preseason has shown signs of improvement, with the team finishing with a 101.7 rating, was 20th in the league. While being bottom ten is nothing to brag about, I would be thrilled with that kind of improvement at the end of the year. A few defensive statistics stood out:
- The team was pretty solid at chasing the other team off the 3 point line, as allowed the 8th fewest 3 point attempts per game and were middle of the pack in 3FG% allowed.
- They continue to foul too often, allowing the 6th most FT attempts per game, which should be a relatively easy issue to correct.
- They forced the 10th most turnovers per game, which suggests they are learning how to use the youth and athleticism of the roster.
- They continue to let other teams get to the basket, allowing the 2nd most FG attempts per game within 5 feet of the basket, and finishing with the 6th least blocks.
I believe defense is the area where the team can show the quickest gains this year under the new coaching staff and roster. While most experts predict the team will be a bottom 2-3 defensive team—and this is certainly possible—I would not be surprised if the combination of better coaching and individual effort leads to a far better outcome by the end of the year.
Individual Indicators
The individual player statistics were about what we all probably expected – Russell showed massive improvement, Ingram was inconsistent but showed flashes, Black looked liberated without the coach trying to ruin his career, and Nick Young was the best player in the league.
Much has been said already about Russell all over the Laker blogosphere as we are all obviously enamored with his talent and excited to see him progress, so I will just highlight a few things that stuck out to me:
- His overall stat line was fantastic (per 36 min): 21.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.5 ast, 2.0 stl, 2.9 threes, 45.1%/36.5%/77.8%. And he looked this good.
- His TS% was 56.9, which would be an elite rate for the year. Last year, that would have been good for 7th among PGs, and better than such players as Lillard, Butler, Isaiah, Anthony Davis, Paul George, Dirk, Westbrook, and most shockingly, Roy Hibbert.
- He got to the line 4.1 times per 36, which is okay and an improvement, but we need to see continuing progress there if he’s going to be a lead scorer at an efficient level. He seems to have a real gift for drawing fouls in the post, but I’d like to see more foul drawing from aggressive penetration.
- The turnovers were a real problem (4.6 per 36 min), and he absolutely must clean that up. Obviously, he’s going to be a high turnover player give his role and aggressiveness, but many of the turnovers are the result of him being cavalier with the ball, not an aggressive play that didn’t work out.
- I was encouraged by his off the ball work, and nearly 70% of his 3s were assisted, in contrast with last year’s isolation tendencies.
All of the guards and wing players shot the three with enormous frequency. Per 36 minutes, Russell shot 7.9 threes per game, up from 4.5 per 36 min last year. Clarkson shot 8.7 (up from 4.5), Lou shot 6.8, and Nick Young shot 9.9. These are extremely high rates and very encouraging. Consider that if Russell actually shot at that rate over a full season he would have finished 4th last year in total 3 point attempts; Clarkson would have finished 2nd only to Curry.
Also note that increasing his three point attempt rate was a key driver in Curry becoming a more efficient scorer, and could be a key factor in the Lakers as a team sharply increasing their offensive efficiency. If, for example, Russell shoots 35% from three, that works out to 1.05 points per possession; 38% equals 1.14 points per possession; 40% equals 1.20 points per possession.
Golden State led the league at 1.13 in points per possession last year. Thus, under the reasonable assumption that Russell is somewhere over 35% (what he shot last year), we want him shooting as many threes as possible. Indeed, every time he shoots a makeable three, the Lakers are scoring at a league-leading pace. The same holds true of Clarkson, Lou, and Young if they shoot at expected %’s. It is encouraging that the better shooters on the team are letting it fly from three, and something to keep an eye on as the year progresses.
Ingram looked like a rookie and the numbers bear that out. But there were signs of real promise, even amidst the inconsistency:
- He shot 39% from three, and attempted 3.4 threes per 36 (which will rise).
- He got to the line 5.4 times per 36, which is surprising given that strength is his biggest issue.
- He showed real activity/effectiveness on defense, generating 1.1 stl and 1.5 blk per 36. As we saw in the second GS game, he flashed superstar potential; the key will be steady development to create consistency.
Nance continues to look like a key piece, and his statistics confirmed steady production. As expected, he was a defensive force, generating 3.0 stls and 1.2 blks per 36, which would be one of the highest combined rates in the league. Overall, his per 36 line was 14.7 pts, 8.0 reb, 2.0 ast, 3.0 stl, 1.2 blk, on 48.0 FG%. I’d like to see more than 1.5 threes attempted per 36, however.
Our centers were surprisingly effective. Black’s per 36 line was about 15/10 with 59% shooting and a ton of free throw attempts. If you combine/average Black and Mozgov’s production into 48 minutes, you have an extremely productive big in today’s league: 18.1 pts, 12.3 reb, 1.4 blk, on 55% shooting. Getting production at this rate, without having to soak up any post ups, would be a great boon to the team.
* * *
Taking too much from the preseason statistics would obviously be a mistake. We’ve seen players and teams flash amazing results before only to come down to earth once the season started. And, of course, the Lakers did NOT do anything amazing, finishing 2-6. While that record was disappointing, the games were close, and the team finished with a net rating of -2.2, which would be a massive improvement on last year’s disaster (league worst -10.7). And, more critically, we saw signs and patterns of progress in key areas that suggest Luke and his staff are making real inroads in teaching the young team how to play the right way – better passing, more threes, quicker pace, creating turnovers, etc, etc.
Given where the team stands right now, I found the preseason to be a resounding success and to offer genuine hope for the future.
A Horse With No Name says
This is a great post. Sample size is small and from the pre-season. But for anyone who watched these games, these big statistical gains jibe with what was apparently taking place: the incubation of a team offense and defense that will prove transformative. We won’t smell the playoffs, but we will win more games (25-30?), and we will be entertained and encouraged by their individual and collective growth. I’m stoked man.
bluehill says
Out of curiosity I took a look at last year’s preseason. I couldn’t find all the stats shown above, but here’s what I found:
TS%: .533 – 8th
Pace: 95.9 – 24th
Assist%: 55.6 – 25th
Off. Eff.: 105.4 – 5th
3FGM: 7.9 – 17th
Def. Eff.: 107.5 – 3rd (highest)
The TS% and Off Eff surprised me, but since Kobe was playing in the preseason he may have been skewing the results. In any case, things obviously worsened during the regular season even the defensive rating.
new rr says
Good informational post. As a couple of people pointed out and as DS suggests here, point differential is one basic, but important, thing to look at with this year’s team.
mindcrime says
My main concern is the absence in the “improvement” category of any mention of Randle. I haven’t looked at the stats, so I don’t know what they bring to the table in this discussion. I do know that the “eye test” has suggested something is “off” with him. I don’t know if I agree with some that have said that he’s truly regressed, but the fact we are talking more about Nance and Black than JR is troubling.
bluehill says
Re: Randle, all his stats at the link below (and better formatting). Preseason-wise his offense declined y/y.
http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Julius-Randle/Summary/24301
Season/ Team/ GP/ GS/ TS%/ eFG%/ ORB%/ DRB%/ TRB%/ AST%/ TOV%/ STL%/ BLK%/ USG%/ Total S%/ PPR/ PPS/ ORtg/ Drtg/ PER
2015-16/ http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/teams/Los-Angeles-Lakers/13/Rosters/Preseason/2016
8/
8/
.526/
.486/
7.53/
20.95/
14.20/
21.25/
19.89/
1.76/
1.51/
26.96/
119.48/
-5.00/
1.20/
96.6/
105.1/
19.45
2016-17/ http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/teams/Los-Angeles-Lakers/13/Rosters/Preseason/2017
8/
8/
.504/
.500/
5.46/
25.54/
15.25/
15.12/
21.92/
1.79/
0.37/
19.83/
97.37/
-3.99/
1.13/
89.6/
102.2/
11.73
Darius Soriano says
new rr This post was actually written by Reed. I have fixed the author that is properly reflected.
Darius Soriano says
Drorvodka Wish I could say the same about your comment.
_ Robert _ says
“Taking too much from the preseason statistics would obviously be a mistake.”
Indeed
Last year in the pre-season, we ranked 5th in Off Eff and 7th in TS%.
The preseason in the NBA is about as meaningful as it is in the NFL.
That said – there are some reasons to be mildly optimistic (mostly due to what we are comparing to).
I think we have a “chance” to win 35 games which would put Luke in the COTY conversation.
The Lakers and Luke have certainly won the expectations game. If the Lakers win north of 30, Luke is going to be a total hero (and I would take the over on that). If we win south of 30, then people will say – it is OK as long as the youngsters are developing (which is statistically assured). It is really hard for me to envision a scenario where Luke is being criticized harshly during this year.
Then again way back in 2012 when I was complaining about having the “6th” best team in the league, I would have never envisioned the scenarios that were about to take place.
Clay Bertrand says
mindcrime
I agree that of all the promising pieces and off season ravings, Randle has been the one who has somewhat underwhelmed.
I believe this has to do with what the coaching staff is asking of him. His jumper hasn’t been on although I expect him to eventually find some consistency with it. Though he has worked on his offhand, his handle seems very lose with a lot of high dribbles.
I think that the coaching staff is asking Randle to do EVERYTHING. Defend multiple positions, rebound, push the ball up the floor, playmake, and do it all at a frenetic, energized, high motor pace. They are trying to get him to push himself into the areas that Dray Green handles in GState. His first preseason game, he got into foul trouble—guarding DeMarcus Cousins. Understandable. Other games, he has had turnovers with his ball handling and hasn’t been able to get a consistent offensive flow.
I feel that this will come. There is an empty trough this season with No Kobe and all the players are trying to find where they eat. Randle, being a non back court player, may take longer to find his effectiveness because Russell is still finding his and he is going to be a high usage player who has the ball in his hands on offense.
I started to see Randle put some things together the last couple of games. His rebounding numbers don’t seem to be what they were in the double digits but this may be a result of what they are asking him to do.
He has a pretty unique skill set for his size so it’ll take more time but we’ve got plenty of that!! I’ll be troubled if we are still seeing Randle sputter by mid season.
_DPeterson_ says
Great post. This kind of stuff makes me a smarter fan of the game. Thanks, and keep it coming.
LordMo says
We should be taking nothing away from the pre-season numbers period. It is an evaluation period and from that perspective alone it should be viewed. Given that there is optimism that the young players will trend up. Kobe is gone so the numbers will definitely go up but the better question is who out of the young core will “Step Up” and ascend to take control of the team.
LordMo says
mindcrime
I think Lakerdom should quit assuming that Randle will be a star in
this league. No guarantee that any of these guys will be Lakers in the
future let alone even in the league. The FO is guilty of the same
also… I think they have in their minds as to who they think the future
stars are and are trying to tailor their games to fit some preconceived
notions of how they should be playing. Young players obviously want to
be teachable and are trying to comply with the direction given.
Case
in point … Randle is not Lamar Odom… hell he isn’t even Robert
Reid. I don’t see a future for him in this league as a ball-handler,
point forward or stretch four. Really more of an iso-type player which
in todays game if your not the featured player or your not an elite
defender then you are a ROLE player. Nance by the definition of the
positions requirements is the better fit. But the Lakers are trying to
hand this thing to Randle so hopefully he gets a jumpshot ( which I have
noted several times… he had a whole off year to develop a 15 footer! )
and learns to be a decent defender. Terminal case of “His Arms are to
short to box with God!” with lack of true size might make the decision
to move him sooner if he does not make some big progress this year. So
far the Lakers are selling the sizzle on this kid… He might be what he
is (my belief) which don’t get me wrong is a good NBA rotation
player… its a good living!
LordMo says
_ Robert _
” The Lakers and Luke have certainly won the expectations game.”
You are right and Luke buys them another year of tanking! This team wins under 30 games because right now they really cannot consistently compete at a high enough level night in and night out. And everyone with the exception of the 76ers are better than us… even the Suns! That being said the “2017 Lottery Pick” is secured and the true rebuild will be underway.
FredP says
I hope these analyses continue as the season progresses. Yes, the preseason is fraught with small sample problems but it is still revealing the direction the team is heading under Luke. The offensive sets that look the best are the ones that begin with a drive and dish. Russell and Ingram are very good and Randle would be if he would take the open jumpers he is given. The motion offense that looks kind of like the Princeton offense is sketchy and it shows that the players are still in the early learning stages. It does not mean that they will not get there eventually. On defense, there is actually defense on the wings and shooters are being chased off screens. They still have issues preventing secondary actions but are communicating and figuring out what they are doing wrong in real time. Again, this could be a very different team by the All-Star break.
LordMo says
FredP
Yes, if you mean All-Star Break 2020!
This team is headed for the Draft Lottery, unless the Spurs and others outsmart us and tank the year. Great draft coming up in 2017 and Pop knows it. Think he’s been snooping around USA Basketball for nothing?
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/theres-some-smoke-about-the-spurs-considering-trading-lamarcus-aldridge-but-is-there-fire/
http://nesn.com/2016/10/nba-rumors-spurs-could-trade-lamarcus-aldridge-by-end-of-season/
matt24 says
Good stuff, what stood out to me was assist %, because last year was all iso ball, which was frustrating to watch, in preseason the ball is moving, players without the ball are moving, d’angelo is constantly moving which is what his game needs, as far as dlo turnovers his usage rating is way up so hence the increase in turnovers, I still can’t understand the critics that are still out there regarding russell he’s playing great. The team should excel as they learn to run new stuff.
MT87 says
The biggest question I personally had coming into the season was how much of last year’s poor performance was attributable to B. Scott and the Kobe farewell tour and how much was due to the talent level of the young players. I think that what the preseason numbers show is that our young core was better than they performed last year. The defense in particular looks much better than development alone would indicate. I think the offensive numbers are only going to get better as the year goes on as well although consistency is going to be a major issue.
This team is going to take a lot of L’s in the first half of the season but they give every indication of exceeding expectations after the all-star break and into next year. This isn’t yet a playoff team, but I’m not nearly so sure that the Lakers will keep their pick as I once was.
FredP says
LordMo FredP The Spurs are still in a win it all now mode. The Lakers will be in the lottery but will also show they are on their way out of it. They need all around players and their roster looks pretty solid in that regard. I would not trade the Lakers’ roster for the Spurs roster. I prefer watching this team develop.
matt24 says
29% from 3 as a team , seems ok. But I’m not a fan of them shooting too many 3s, the 2nd preseason game vs Sacramento it felt like every shot was a 3, it was ridiculous, there are too many streaky scorers on the team, we gotta mix it up, layups in between, if your on a cold streak of 2/14 from 3, you gotta stop that
matt24 says
Game tomorrow is on espn
LordMo says
FredP LordMo
Agreed … I like the youth movement also.
I believe the next decade will be some classic Lakers/Celtics and 76ers matchups but beware the T-Wolves and Suns.
lalaker14 says
Like you said there is still a lot that needs to be cleaned up but overall the team definitely made progress and are headed in the right direction. Excited for the season to get started. Go lakers!
JuanJ says
LordMo mindcrime
Sobering thoughts Mo.
IMO, Julius will come around as he settles into what he´s expected to do (see Clay´s post above) –
I admit, however, that i may have been influenced by our FO´s evident hope of future greatness in Julius.
Time´ll tell…
JuanJ says
fine piece, thanks
matt24 says
Spurs beat the warriors by almost 30
Spurs bench 64
Warriors bench 16
matt24 says
Correction
Spurs bench 54
bluehill says
Possibly one reason why the FO has been looking at all these mobile big men.
https://theringer.com/warriors-spurs-2017-season-opener-center-518990244675#.nwpitaeqg
“The Warriors weren’t just replacing Harrison Barnes with Durant; https://theringer.com/andrew-bogut-australia-dallas-mavericks-c9b02a958dad#.2wjk2z3k6.
Bogut never got enough credit for all he did for the Warriors. He was
instrumental to what they did on both sides of the ball, and they
clearly missed him against the Spurs. Bogut is one of the best rim
protectors in the NBA, and he’s also mobile enough to slide his feet and
guard in the pick-and-roll. On the offensive end, he’s great at setting
screens, passing the ball, and rolling to the rim. The Warriors’ best
lineups feature Draymond Green at center, but he can’t play that
position for 30 minutes a game over the course of the regular season.
They need someone who can hold the fort and eat some minutes there.”
_ Robert _ says
Another year where the Spurs are one of the elite(maybe 3 teams have a real shot this year).
Guys aging, retirements, league CBA changes, style changes –
nothing matters.How do they do
it?
Of yea – Holt, Buford, and Pop.The rules of the natural highs and lows of
sports franchises do not seem to apply here.
I hate the Spurs.
LordMo says
Clay Bertrand mindcrime
Everyone has to realize that Randle’s supposed best asset the Lakers FO keeps crowing about his ballhandling is really not that unique in today’s game.
Look at all the Point Forwards now and even bigs that can handle and you will see it more and more. It is really nothing more than a product of the AAU skills training the young players do 2 to 3 times a week even the bigs… which was not the case years ago. Which is good so don’t get me wrong but the Lakers are analyzing it the wrong way it is just the maturation of the AAU programs which are like mini-college programs. The big-time players play more AAU than school ball now and some even forego the school teams. Karl Anthony Towns is another example that comes to mind.
So, yes bigs can handle better nowadays but that does not mean Randle should be distributing the pill or initiating the O. What it should mean is that he should grab the board take a few good dribbles and get it up and out to one of our primary ballhandlers so Randle can fill a lane for the throw down. That’s what should be happening. I think Luke will make the subtle adjustment. But small things like that change turnovers into baskets.
Lakers Future says
_ Robert _
You and me both. Those guys just don’t miss a beat.
LordMo says
_ Robert _
Don’t like the Spurs but I respect their organization. What you see is an organization on the same page on and off the court… totally in sync! And Pop is the focal point so there is no doubt about who makes the calls basketball wise.
The Allies won WWII in part to the planning and infrastructure laid down by the great General George Marshall. Who understood the organizational aspects needed to be successful. Spurs and Patriots are great example of organizational excellence which more often times than not breeds success.
J C hoops says
I appreciate any team that plays hard and succeeds.
I’ve enjoyed the Spurs and Warriors the last few years.
I never miss a Laker game and I still bleed purple but great basketball is great basketball. I don’t care what color the jersey is.
J C hoops says
And Jazz