Where are we? How did we get here? And where are going?
The fundamental questions of theology hang over this Lakers season, particularly as the losses mount. The team is in the midst of perhaps their most interesting rebuild, at least that most of us have experienced. Through a perfect storm of disasters, lottery luck, and drafting prowess, the team has gathered a deep and diverse collection of young players, who we now watch find their way through fascinating and usually frustrating games.
This season feels like the critical moment in the rebuild, when we mostly transition from asset gathering to asset evaluation and development. In other words, we likely either have the primary pieces of the next contending era already in place, or we are halfway (gulp) through a vicious cycle back to the beginning.
This year will tell us much about which direction we are heading, which makes the answers to the posed questions all the more important. Those answers will also, I believe, reveal something about whether the front office is capable of leading the team into the future, which is a question that Jeannie apparently isn’t going to let die.
Let’s start at the beginning.
How Did We Get Here?
Most Laker fans, and even NBA “experts” (whatever that means in the twitter age), agree that the Lakers are set up for a promising future. The team has hit, at least to some degree, on three straight lottery picks, and, perhaps more critically, uncovered impact players each year late in the draft. The result is a collection of numerous extremely young, talented players – Ingram, Russell, Randle, Clarkson, Nance, Zubac. The team also appears to have finally found an impact coach/staff that embraces all the advantages of modern NBA thinking.
So how did the team arrive here? Well, honestly, through much tribulation and sorrow. Let’s retrace the principal events:
In 2009 and 2010, the Lakers won the championship, bringing Kobe his 4th and 5th titles. The next season, after winning 57 games, the team was swept in the conference semis, and Phil Jackson resigned. The team mostly stumbled through their first season under Mike Brown, losing again in the conference semis.
But then fortunes appeared to turn in the summer of 2012, when events appeared to conspire in accordance with the Lakers longstanding destiny to get whatever they wanted. They were able to trade a quickly deteriorating Bynum plus picks for Dwight Howard, and then work out a sign and trade of additional picks for Steve Nash. Suddenly, the team entered the 2012-2013 season as the heavy favorite, leading even the great Lee Jenkins to do this:
Of course, Dwight struggled physically, professionally, gastrically, and in every other way, ultimately taking his talents to Houston; D’Antoni replaced Brown; Nash’s body immediately stopped working; and Kobe shredded his Achilles at the end of the season while trying to carry the dysfunctional team into the playoffs. And nothing has been the same since. Kobe suffered injury upon injury, Byron replaced D’Antoni, and the team won 27, 21, and 17 games from 2014 to 2016.
Since the ill-fated summer of Dwight and Nash, the front office has managed to progressively make things worse off the court, compounding those disastrous acquisitions with a series of unfortunate events.
In 2013, with Dwight leaving, the Lakers responded by signing Nick Young, Chris Kaman, and Wesley Johnson, and drafted Ryan Kelly. The team won 27 games the next year, largely through D’Antoni’s coaching magic. Pain.
In 2014, D’Antoni was forced out and replaced by Byron. The Lakers had saved towards their first significant cap room in years (approximately $28M), but chose to flail around unsuccessfully chasing Melo. After that predictably failed, the team quickly used up their cap room to sign Jordan Hill and Ed Davis, assume Jeremy Lin, and make a (winning?) waivers bid on Carlos Boozer. Due to the time spent chasing Melo, the team passed on Kent Bazemore, who had emerged as a young impact contributor on a cheap contract. The team also passed on Isaiah Thomas, who desperately wanted to sign with the team, ultimately signing with Phoenix for 4 years, $27M (perhaps the best non-Steph Curry contract in the league now). In the draft, the team took Randle at #7, and purchased the rights to Jordan Clarkson at #46. The team proceeded to win 21 games in Byron’s first year, a then-franchise low. Suffering.
In 2015, the team again had significant cap room (approximately $25M), and was fortunate to keep the #2 pick in the draft (which would have gone to Philly if later than #5 due to the Nash deal). Instead of learning from the prior summer, the team chased LaMarcus Aldridge, badly and publicly flubbing its pitch, and then used its cap room to acquire Roy Hibbert, Lou Williams, Brandon Bass, and the Catalyst. Due to the time spent chasing Aldridge, the team lost Ed Davis, another young impact player, to a team-friendly contract with Portland. In the draft, they landed Russell at #2, and at Nance #27. The team proceeded to win a franchise worst 17 games. Tribulations and rock bottom.
This last summer, with the salary cap dramatically rising due to the influx of TV money, the team was positioned with approximately $65M in cap room, the most it or any team has ever had. But, after years of embarrassing incompetence, the leading FAs would not even meet with the team, and it settled quickly on Mozgov and Deng at massive salaries to much league-wide mocking, and added Calderon, Tarik Black, and other filler. Walton replaced Scott, much to the fans’ universal relief. The team drafted Ingram #2 and Zubac at #32.
It’s important to really understand that over the course of the prior three off-seasons, the Lakers were armed with over $115M in cap room to make signings, trades, etc. Think about that. Think about how many owners/general managers/coaches would salivate to utilize those resources in the LA market.
And what does the team have to show for using those resources? Lou, Nick Young, a disastrous Mozgov contract, a worrying Deng contract, and nothing else. At this point, it’s not a stretch to assume the Lakers would have to PAY teams to take Mozgov or Deng in a trade. Perhaps a team would trade a late first for Lou (Lakers twitters’ favorite pastime), or perhaps not. Critically, the Lakers do not have a single meaningful long term asset/player as a result of spending $115M+ in salary cap money the last 3 summers.
Indeed, given the costs of moving Mozgov or Deng, the prior 3 FA summers resulted in a NET NEGATIVE asset return. Ie, if trying to trade the remaining players added through free agency, the Lakers would end up having to pay more in picks/assets than would be acquired. Whoops. Instead, that money was burned chasing wholly unrealistic megastars, and is now sitting in the investment accounts of Roy Hibbert, Jordan Hill, Jeremy Lin, Carlos Boozer, and Mozgov. This is painful, but it is undisputedly true. And it demonstrates some combination of negligent, incompetent, and/or arrogant management of the team.
At the same time, however, all of that mass incompetence resulting in three years of horrific losing, and that losing led to lottery picks. And on this front, it is undisputedly true that the front office drafted brilliantly, and we must give them fair credit for this. Randle would likely go a few picks higher than #7 in the 2014 draft; Russell was a bold, brilliant, and unexpected decision; Ingram was the right call; and Nance, Clarkson, and Zubac will far outperform their draft slots. In 3 straight drafts, the team netted six real NBA players, and perhaps their eventual starting 5 for the future. This is drafting brilliance.
How do we evaluate these moves altogether? It boggles the mind that the same front office that so disastrously and completely botched the FA decisions could at the same time so consistently nail the draft. But running an NBA team is complicated business. And as discussed more fully below, where does that leave me in terms of trusting the front office to maximize this window? Torn, but concerned.
Where Are We?
Despite the free agent stumbles, the team appears to be in tremendous shape for the future, on the strength of the last three drafts and the hope that Luke can make the best of things. Where exactly does that leave us now? It is simply too early to tell, but a few thoughts.
There are real signs that the Lakers have gathered an enormously talented young core. Consider the following:
Russell (age 20)
The first obvious point with Russell is that he’s already producing in a meaningful way, even with the maddening (and recent) inconsistency. His current per 36 stats jump off the page: 19.7 PTS, 5.1 REB, 6.1 AST, 1.7 STL, 2.7 3PM.
In addition, he is near the top of the historic leaderboard in several areas for his age:
- #3 highest PER (15.4) for age 20 & under PG (Irving, Rose, Wall)
- #1 highest 3PM/g (2.0) and 3PM/per36 (2.7) for age 20 & under player
- #4 highest AST/per36 (6.1) and #5 AST% (27.5) for age 20 & under player
- #4 highest USG% (27.2) for age 20 & under player
- #4 highest REB% (7.8) for age 20 & under PG
Russell isn’t a great PG yet, but he’s clearly one of the best PGs for his age ever to play. He may be the single best under 22 PG in the league. And he is already showing the capacity to carry the primary load of an NBA offense for significant stretches, ranking in the top 30 in the league in USG%, ahead of ball dominant stars like Paul George, Durant, Butler, Conley, etc. And he’s able to do something with those possessions – to score from all three levels, make 3s at a historic rate for his age, be a force from the post, increasingly get into the lane and finish, and zip creative passes to finishers in efficient spots (a recent article found that his passes increased teammate shooting efficiency by 6%).
When looking forward, it’s important to remember that Russell won’t BEGIN his prime for 5 years, allowing for an enormous amount of time to grow. This is critical because his weaknesses are largely a matter of approach rather than talent – figuring out when to attack, when to dial it back, when to look for his shot first, how to read complex defenses, team defense, and so forth. The physical attributes plus skills are there, however, and the question is whether he will put in the work to maximize them. At worst, the Lakers should have a solid lead guard who can score 20+ from all over the court and engine the offense for years; at best, they have the next great PG who will take the mantle from Curry/Westbrook/Harden/Paul when they move on. Which side of that line he ends up on could determine how high the team ascends in this era.
Ingram (age 19)
Ingram’s current status is very different from Russell’s. His overall statistics are a mess. He is the second youngest player in the league, younger than a significant number of the players who will be drafted in six months. And yet he’s having sustained impactful stretches on the court and flashing the ability to do things that very, very few players can do and things players of his age probably shouldn’t be able to yet.
While his season statistics are poor by any metric, Ingram has really turned the corner of late. Over the last 8 games, he has averaged 12.4 PTS, 4.1 REB, 2.8 AST, and 1.4 3PM, on 49/48/65% shooting. This is a small sample size, of course, but it shows that he’s starting to string solid games together, which is encouraging given his age. For instance, how many teenagers have averaged 12 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST, and 1 3PM over a season? None… Luke clearly trusts him to play heavy and critical minutes, and to play a central role on both sides of the ball.
What really grabs me about Ingram is how broad his skill set is for a player of his length. Ingram has a 7’3” wingspan and 9’1.5” standing reach (higher than ANY non-traditional big in the entire league other than perhaps Giannis, who we don’t have measurements for). His reach, for example, is higher than for Durant, Bosh, or Towns. Now consider how Ingram’s skill set projects with a few years of development. It would be surprising, for example, if he did not average 17+ points, 4+ assists, 1.5+ threes, and 1+ blocks in his prime. How many players 6’9” or taller have reached these metrics together at any point in their careers? Just Durant and Cousins.
Taken a step further, and focusing on three core areas, how many players with somewhat comparable length have been able to (1) make plays off the dribble (for themselves and others), (2) shoot from 3, and (3) defend at a high level? It’s a very, very short list – Giannis (being generous on the shooting), Durant, George, perhaps Batum, and Odom? It is just incredibly rare to be that tall and able to handle the ball, shoot, and defend on the perimeter. The league now places a premium on versatility – being able to defend multiple positions on defense, and being able to shoot plus create on offense. Ingram is cut right out of this mold, and appears capable of eventually defending 3-4 positions (including at the rim), making 3s at a high percentage, and creating offense for others. This kind of player is usually a superstar.
Ingram is going to be able to do these things in time, he seems driven to work and understands the game at an intuitive level, and that’s why I value him more highly than any other member of the Lakers young core.
Randle (age 22)
Randle is one of my favorite players to watch, and someone that I really have no idea how to evaluate or project as his profile is so unique. Even with the recent struggles, he’s having an amazing season for a 22 year old second year player, averaging 13.2 PTS, 8.6 REB, 3.9 AST, with a much improved 48.4 FG%.
He’s already one of the most effective rebounders in the league – one of only three players to put up 10+ rebounds per game in his first season since 2000 (KAT, Griffin). His best offensive quality is his ability to handle the ball on the perimeter, drawing interior bigs out to clear the lane for cutters, with an eye for setting up 3 point shooters in transition. He averages more assists for made threes than anyone on the team (2.2), and is averaging 5.0 AST/g over the last 15 games, better than any traditional big except for Green, Cousins, and Jokic. After a disastrous year shooting from the perimeter last year, he’s shown significant improvement from midrange this year, making 50% from 10-19 feet. Yet, he only shoots 53% at the rim (below league average). On defense, he has the physical tools to be effective in covering ground, particularly to stick with guards on the perimeter, but he’s largely a mess, without a fundamental understanding or approach to defensive spacing and team principles.
What will Randle become? What is a 6’9” PF that can handle the ball like a guard, set up 3 point shooters, rebound with anyone, but who struggles to finish inside or defend anyone? I have no idea. But it will be fascinating to watch him work through his weaknesses, and he’s already shown significant improvement from last season to this one. If he can turn into a positive defender—which is a real question and not going to just automatically happen with time—he can certainly become an all star big. If not, he may perpetually disappoint. We’ll see.
The Rest
Beyond those three, the Lakers have also landed three impact rotation players late in the draft with Nance, Clarkson, and Zubac. All three have shown flashes of the ability to play at a high level.
Clarkson has the physical tools and skill set to score at a high level, particularly against the opponent’s bench guards. He can get to the rim against anyone and is making progress from 3. He does not seem to have a great feel for the floor game, or defensive principles, and that may limit his ultimate role. We all love Nance, who is probably already the team’s best defensive player and someone who understands the nuances of the game at a veteran level. He won’t be a star, but he should be an extremely valuable third big, or spot starter, who can help win playoff games some day. Zubac is my favorite of the three and has the potential to be a solid starting center some day, which would be amazing value for the #32 pick. As we saw against Denver, he has great floor instincts, soft hands/touch, and can rebound and defend the rim. There are likely going to be issues with defending the perimeter, but he can play, and I’m extremely excited to see what he becomes after a few years of development.
Together, these six players provide one of the deeper stables of young players in the league. Credit to Mitch, Jim, and the scouts for hitting on nearly every draft pick. Other than Nance, all of these players need several years to reach their potential, but the team very well may have a couple of all stars, most of the starting five for the future, and six solid rotation players.
Where Are We Going?
Where is this all leading? Given the ages of our core players, we really have no idea at this point, but a few thoughts.
First, if the Lakers commit to the young core and let them become whatever they will become—which is clearly the best course forward—then this team is SEVERAL YEARS away from doing anything serious. History has demonstrated without any real exceptions that veterans win championships. The 2015 Warriors were the youngest team to ever win a title, with Curry 26, Klay and Green 24, and Barnes 22. But even then, they were surrounded by key seasoned veterans – Bogut at 30, Livingston at 29, and finals MVP Iguodala at 31. And, of course, we need to remember how far the Lakers’ core is from even being 24 or 26… Ingram is 19, Russell is 20, and Randle is 22. They are still maturing physically, have miles to go in learning the game, need to develop and maximize their skill sets, and figure out how to blend together in a way that brings out the best in each other. This is not going to happen this year, or next year, or probably the year after. Lakers fans need to be patient and let this simmer. And the front office needs to do the same, which I do not have perfect confidence in given the always tense Buss sibling dynamic.
Second, while it will take a long time for this team to contend (unless a superstar or two decide to join the party), we can still take great joy in the ride if we maintain perspective. There is a tendency to want immediate returns; to blow up and advocate quick fix trades when the team hits rough patches; to second guess the coach’s rotations or decisions; etc, etc. This is part of being a fan.
But if we are patient, we can find real sports joy in watching this team grow together. I have not seen many teams gather so many interesting, unique, uber-talented young players. Seeing a special young player find his way and break out is among the most satisfying things to participate in as a fan, and it is something we have not experienced frequently as Lakers fans given the nature of contending year after year. But some of my most enjoyable memories from the post-Showtime era is watching players like Eddie Jones, Van Exel, and Bynum grow from raw rookies to all stars. And, of course, the greatest experience I’ve had as a fan is seeing Kobe do this on a mind blowing level. It will be a blast to watch each of the young core find themselves and break out.
Third, even if these players all reach their potential, there is no guarantee that the Lakers become a perennially contending team. The league has been flooded with dynamic young stars the last few years, and several other rebuilding teams are situated with budding superstars and deep young cores.
Minnesota has KAT, Wiggins, Lavine, and Dunn. Milwaukee has Giannis, Jabari, and Middleton. Philly has Embiid, Simmons, and possibly two lottery picks coming. Denver has Jokic, Murray, Mudiay, and Harris. Boston gets the next two Brooklyn picks to add to a deep collection of real young players. Phoenix has Booker, Bender, and Chriss. The Jazz are already a playoff team, but their core players are all under 26. And other current powers have stars that aren’t going away anytime soon – GS (Curry and Durant are 28, Green and Klay are 26), OKC (Westbrook is 28, Adams is 23, and Oladipo is 24), Houston (Harden is 27), SAS (Kawhi is 25). Not to mention single-star teams that could figure it out – Cousins, Davis, etc.
In other words, competition is going to be stiff for years, contending is not easy, and it’s no sure thing that the Lakers break through as a title level team even if Russell and Ingram become blue chip stars. But even if this is the case, I am certain that this group, under Walton’s influence, will be worth watching, studying, and caring about. Which is all we can ask as fans.
The final question is whether the front office is up to the task. As already discussed, they should get credit for collecting this young core. I doubt that any other general manager would have come away with the strength of assets the Lakers did from the draft the last three years. But, at the same time, they’ve shown a consistent inability to develop assets from free agency or trades. If the team is going to emerge from the pack at some point, it is critical that every avenue to improve the team be maximized, and I do not have perfect confidence that the current front office are prepared to make that happen. I imagine that Jeannie is smart enough to see all of this, and her moves over the next year will be fascinating.
However it plays out, it won’t be boring.
–Reed (@reed_nba)
FredP says
You make many great points. What has been jarring for me in regards to Randle and Russell is their apparent lack of practice playing defense before they turned pro. They routinely do not come down the court with a sense of purpose defensively and get burned in transition. However, their offensive games are amazing at times, enough to make you believe that they will be difference makers. Ingram has everything except an ability to get wet in a shower. Those three will be lethal once they step their games up.
The inability to get impact players in trades or free agency shows a lack of vision by the FO and not knowing what they want from those players. That should change after this season now that the young players have had a chance to show what they can do.
The biggest need remains the Buss brood getting their act together; meaning no more ridiculous vows of playoff runs and no more threats of making Jim step down. The continuing FO drama undermines Luke’s ability to coach. If Jeannie is serious about making a management change, then do it so the players can focus on being a Laker.
The Lakers have been fortunate in the past few drafts and the players can at least be entertaining while they develop into grownups.
new rr says
Very thorough and well-supported summary. Thanks for the work. I agree with about 85-90% of it.
John Citizen says
very nice article, thanks. With the new CBA, whether we like it or not, we will be stuck with the current young group. So we might as well go full strength on develoment.
My issue with Russell is he competitiveness. I hope he have some stronger motivations as he matures.
My issue with Ingram is his strength and confidence. Somehow i feel he is gonna be great in 3 years.
For me all the rest are nice but with clear un-fixable shortcomings. In my view and from what i seen, only Russell and Ingram have a complete or near complete basketball skill set and can develop some plays or moves that simply unguarded.
Zubac, i am hopeful with, if he works on his feet. Randle, i will like him a lot if he learn how to defend, all the time. Nance, if he find a way to limit injuries. JC if he stop going 1 on 4 and learn how to defend.
wwlofficial says
Just an amazing post Reed. Post more.
_ Robert _ says
Reed: Very nice. Well done. I agree with your “How did we get here” and if anything – you are a little harsh as most play the VETO excuse, the injury excuse, and the Dwight/Pau were babies excuses. You did not. Well done. With regard to the Draft: I agree with the fact that we have done well more or less however I disagree that we have totally “nailed” this. Here is why. As you state – six picks and all look like they will have careers so yes kudos to the FO for that. The problem comes in that all of these picks are not equal. The bottom three are all nice picks, but late first and second round picks – even as good as these are – will only move the needle slightly. How many good second round picks would it take to make up for taking Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan? : ) Clarkson at $13 million is no total bargain to me so in the long run – other than to say – “nice find” – this does not give us a huge ROI the way that 1st round picks can (obviously right). So moving to the important 1st rounders. Ingram was an obvious pick. There is no credit for “nailing” this. It is what it is. Randle was also the consensus pick in his slot, and he might be projected a couple of notches higher – so OK – this was good but hardly Earth shattering. Which brings us to the all-important DAR. The consensus was Okafor and he has now slipped to 10-12 or so in the ratings – so potential disaster averted (we will see). But DAR has also slipped and if the draft were held today – he would probably go 5-6. More over 5 years from now if there are Super Stars in the 2015 draft (there may or may not be), we did not get any of them in spite of having the 2nd pick! That can’t be considered “nailing” it. Let me know your thoughts as your article is very well constructed. As far as the future – your appraisals are good – perhaps a little more optimistic than I would state – but what does this mean? Are we moving forward with the theory that the “core” is the focus and we don’t need much else? Or are we going to “position” ourselves to be able to strike when the big targets become available? This question seems to be a macro issue that then dictates many other specific issues. Thanks
KevTheBold says
Brilliant Reed, and entertaining yet informative Read !
I agree with the vast potential we have,..and admit getting impatient at times.
However, like a parent with kids that were born with amazing gifts, it frustrates when they are not using those gifts, because we know,that like in life, the NBA has discarded a large pile of gifted players, who for some reason or other reached their potential.
You are so correct however to remind us that we won’t know for sure for another few years, thus I must keep reminding myself to stay patient, and take my comfort in the little steps,..while also knowing that it’s not a straight trajectory, but a graph that will move up and down, finally ending where it will end, when it gets there.
A Horse With No Name says
Should be saved here as a de facto handbook for getting through another trying season. There is much to be encouraged by and the serious missteps that may result in heads rolling are readily acknowledged. Very fair and balanced–oh wait–never mind the fair and balanced phrase–you know what I mean. Anyway, the trade for Nash was the most egregious mistake made by Mitch and Jim. You just don’t give up many valuable assets for an old point guard with a history of injury. Terrible move that is still biting hard.
new rr says
_ Robert _
I would add that it is pretty well-established that Sam Hinkie was planning to take Russell, and the 76ers were disappointed that the Lakers did. In the last few days leading up to the draft, there was a lot of coverage in the media saying that the Lakers had moved towards Russell. In addition to being further evidence against the dated “The Lakers FO never lets anyone what they are up to” narrative, this also suggests that taking Russell was not a shocking or bold move and draft day reaction reflects that.
That said, it looks like a good move, but the WOW move at 2 would have been taking Porzingis, not Russell.
I agree very much with Reed, and have said as much, that Russell is doing well for a PG his age. With the exceptions of Chris Paul, Magic Johnson, and to a lesser extent, Kyrie Irving, if you look at the track records of many very good-to-great PGs, you do not see ASG performance right out of the gate.
Travis Y says
Excellent post Reed. Let’s enjoy OUR process. As you mentioned, most fans have a what have you done for me lately attitude. If you’re not winning, then I’m not going to bother watching.
Yet, as reality sets in, we realize that the all time greats win just 25% of the time (Kobe 5 ring: 20 seasons) and that expecting your team to be a finals contender is not reasonable. With expectations low after dismal seasons or how you like to call “How we got here,” we started out 10-10 and had hopes of the playoffs.
Some injuries, youth, and an obvious lack of defense has peppered our expectations and now our expectations are back to where the season started.
I’m hoping for more progress and steps in the right direction.
My priorities for the rest of this season would entail:
1. Defense! Find rotations that play defense. Nance being out has been very noticeable.
2. Play for each other. Less one on one, more team ball movement.
3. Get on the same defensive page. Too many times, Mozgov rotates help and his man ends up with a dunk or offensive rebound.
Reed_nba says
_ Robert _ Really helpful thoughts and an interesting way of seeing things — thanks Robert. I guess where I differ from you is that while Clarkson types may not move the needle dramatically, most picks after the lottery don’t pan out, so getting three rotation players is a much better return than expected, and I give the FO credit for that. I also happen to think that Nance and Zubac are going to end up as really impactful long term players, and thus far outperform their draft positions. As for Russell, I do think he’s going to end up an all star — the production for his age is off the charts, and he will get significantly better the next few years. Going Okafor there, as was consensus, would have been a franchise-changing mistake, and none of us realized that at the time. So I give them a lot of credit for that pick. But good thoughts and I enjoy the discussion — that’s what makes this site great. Thanks.
Reed_nba says
FredP Agree regarding the Buss’s being a primary issue for the team going forward, and I was trying to highlight that. It’s a complicated situation, and we really don’t know enough to evaluate how they are running the team from where we sit, but if I were being honest I’d admit that I’d prefer a change in the front office. I have lost confidence that Mitch and Jim can consistently make positive decisions when roster building, especially now that we are largely transitioning from the “draft years” of rebuilding to the “flesh out the roster” years.
new rr says
Reed_nba FredP
This is pretty much where I am, I think, although I am also concerned with clarity as well as direction.
LKK says
A convincing argument for patience in developing the youngsters. The statistical analysis of them given here flies in the face of what some of us see with the old “eye test”. The young players are the team’s biggest assets and must be used properly to propel the Lakers into a brighter future. Just as important a question as “How good can the young core be?” is “who will be in the front office moving forward and can they get the job done?”
DieTryin says
Reed, kudos man. This is a great read! I agree with the broad conclusions you draw. So the goal as it relates to the FO. Retain the pieces (Mitch?…maybe, but likely deeper down in the org) that are responsible for work in the draft. Remember it’s not just the lottery picks but the Ckarkson’s and Zubac’s of the world that add luster here.
And jettison the author of our abysmal track record with free agents. Both those we struck out with (although no sleep lost over missing out on Carmelo) and more recently those we signed. The Mozgov & Deng signings are in a word, BAD.
Not easy to ferret out who did what here but the results have been so mixed that it is really important for Jeannie to figure it out.
Reed_nba says
LKK Agree. I think the question of who is running the team the next 5 years is the second most important question for the next 5-10 years, other than do Ingram/Russell become superstars. I’d be ecstatic if Jeannie went and got a younger GM that meshed well with Walton — someone in the mold of Bob Myers, Sean Marks, or Masai Ujiri (who are all different, but seem newer school in approach).
Alexander_ says
Excellent piece Reed.
I believe Zubac’ ceiling is quite higher than Nance’s or Clarkson’s, and as high as anyone else’s on the team. His size, mobility, length, skill level, intelligence, good hands and timing, Laker passion, determination to be better, youth, coachability, emerging skyhoook, are all very positive indicators.
To Robert’s point about 2nd round picks – you could add Lebron or Kobe to Bowie and I’d still take Jordan, so that’s an extreme argument. But Ben Simmons over BI or KAT/Porzingis over DAR is not the same dropoff, and what if the 2nd rounders were Dre Green or Marc Gasol?
LKK says
@Reed…
I think it is time for Jim Buss to live up to his self imposed deadline and step aside. Even though he was part of the team’s most recent success in ’09 & ’10, his fingerprints are all over the 3 worst seasons in Lakers history, going on 4. In addition, his league wide credibility has been severely damaged by the frequent attacks from the Stephen A. Smiths and Magic Johnsons of the world. Unfair as some of that criticism may be, anything parroted long and hard enough becomes accepted as fact nowadays. I think a fresh start with new leadership will benefit the franchise. The length and amounts of the Deng & Mosgov contracts have also underscored the need for change in a big way, IMO.
mattal says
Reed_nba LKK
I concur with your suggestion of bringing in a young GM from the outside. My complaint of the recent Lakers is that they are so insular. Sometimes you just need to let fresh air into the room and be open to a new perspective.
I had heard that Jeanie was a fan of Sam Presti. While he is entrenched with the Thunder — perhaps his top lieutenant, Troy Weaver is a possibility.
I am truly torn about Mitch. I think absent his ‘tied to the hip’ association with Jim, Mitch would be in line for the VP of basketball operations title and we’d be talking about back filling his GM role with a young up and comer. Just as Die Tryin mentioned its not easy as an outsider to know who really was responsible for the drafts and for the decision to sign Mozgov/Deng.
new rr says
mattal Reed_nba LKK
Yeah, if I were running the Lakers (a nightmare concept for many posters here) one of the first conversations I would have after a settle-in period would be asking Buss, Kupchak, and Walton to walk me through the Deng and Mozgov signings.
I suspect, as I have said, that Walton and Shaw were very much in favor of these moves. Shaw had Mozgov in Denver, and Mozgov played well for him, and the Lakers signing Mozgov so fast indicates to me, as I said at the time, that the Lakers decision-makers thought they knew something about his value that most people didn’t.
As to Deng, I think he fits the “positionless” idea and also Walton’s stated idea that “culture is everything.”
But of course we don’t know and how that came about is IMO a pretty big issue.
mattal says
new rr mattal Reed_nba LKK
Agreed. Coaches always want to win now so Walton/Shaw pushing for an immediate infusion of veteran bodies is not shocking. However, management is supposed to grasp the big picture and take into account the varied nuances associated with the long term health of the organization.
_ Robert _ says
Alexander: Nice comeback !!! Love it. Yes Jordan is a bit extreme. So how about some of the 13 guys who were chosen in front of Kobe as an example? : ) And yes the drop in 2015 is “probably” not as significant, but the point is we selected at #2 so we are supposed to get the 2nd best player if it goes true to form. Way too early to tell right? Way too early on most of these guys (especially Ingram). So how is this nailing it? The jury is out. If we had taken Porzingis (which I can totally forgive them for not doing) – that might be where you say “nailed” it. But taking Russell at #2 and now he is 5-6 and that is “nailing” it ? No – not for me.
LordMo says
Ok nice read but let’s not act like the team planned this rebuild or had a strategy. This website is always “Sunny Side Up” be nice to deal in some facts. Basically, they backed or stumbled their way here accidentally. They were trying to win with Kobe and still thought they had enough pieces to get into playoff contention at the beginning of last year. So, really they collected the core due to their ineptitude and mishandling of their roster. They had nor have any vision and FA’s like Aldridge said so as they choose to try to sell him on “Marketing Potential” instead of Championships which is how I measure franchises apparently he does too. I do agree it is time for a front office change and to get someone in here that truly knows Basketball. As for the “Young Core” you can show all the numbers you want but besides Ingram I do not see it. Randle and Russell should both be better but clearly they are not and neither gives a dam about defense so you will never advance far in the playoffs if you are depending on them to get you there. All your stats pertain to offense with the exception of rebounding. But all I know is opposing PG’s go around Russell at will and Randle has problems guarding legit bigs (see the SA game). Both have had enough time to adjust and should be better than they are now. Ingram I have no problems with and he has clearly gained the trust of Walton. He plays the 4th quarter Russell and Randle do not…that says it all!
Alexander_ says
_ Robert _ Definitely the jury is still out on all this, but we haven’t nailed anything, just avoided blunders. Years after drafted and in the NBA, Nash or Curry could have turned out MVP or just stayed at near all-star, it wasn’t that clear. DAR is similar, he’s way too skilled and will not be an Adam Morrison bust, but where he ends up we can’t yet know. I was huge on Porzingis in the days close to the draft after watching much tape on him, so personally very disappointed we passed on him, but DAR is a promising player and potential star for us. btw, other than Porz and KAT, I don’t believe other 2015 draftees are shown better than DAR, more on similar tier perhaps. Time will resolve this argument.
I am high(est) on Ingram. Last year at Duke, he started slow and tentative, then half way through the season he figured things out and started improving by leaps and bounds. I vaguely recall a similar pattern of slightly-delayed blooming mentioned by his HS coach in a draftexpress interview. The desire, physical advantages (sans bulk), and bball skills are there already, I believe BI can surprise all of us by being the first to pull ahead of the rest of the youngsters, maybe late this season, maybe start of next. Luke keeps saying how much more BI shows in practice, which bodes well for my theory.
mattal says
LordMo
Yep, we tend to forget that had the FO executed their plan our core, for last year’s team would have been: Carmelo, Aldridge and Kobe. Drafting the kids is a byproduct of not being able to recruit max free agents and assembling teams built on expiring and one year deals.
Now, I will say that the team has a brighter future than if the FO was successful with Melo and Aldridge. However, you are accurate in saying that the FO is not successfully executing some grand plan.
MT87 says
LordMo You don’t think this team had any strategy?
new rr says
MT87 LordMo
You didn’t ask me, but I will reply since this seems to be an appropriate thread to go back to these points. After Howard walked, I think the Lakers tried to do what Dallas has been doing the last few years: stay competitive around an aging star, while having enough cap space to go after max FAs. Jim stated publicly back in 2013 that the “pitch” was “two max free agents.” Mitch stated publicly after the 2014 season that the FO had thought that the 2013-14 team, which had Nash, Kobe and Pau all still on the roster, could “win in the 40s.”
The FO extended Kobe at a massive price, offered Pau a two-year deal which he turned down to go to Chicago, and supposedly made major plays, as noted here, for Anthony and Aldridge. They also extended Young, and signed Williams, Deng, and Mozgov.
So, none of that suggests that the FO has ever been in all-in on a ground-up rebuild. The KBros have talked about this a lot, suggesting that the Lakers have been like a wealthy family that lost all their money but still pays for a maid and gardener to keep up appearances while fooling no one. Unlike Dallas’ FO, the Lakers’ FO failed to put decent teams on the floor and so got the lotto picks and successfully added to them with the late picks. But I do not think that was part of a plan.
The alternative theory of course, which is more popular at other sites than it is here, although I have seen it pushed here, is the infamous Stealth Tank, which holds that hiring Scott, extending Kobe and some other moves were all done to appease sponsors, fool ignorant fans, fight off Magic Johnson’s Tweets, and play season-ticket holders, while all the time Jim and Mitch took unwarranted abuse and shrewdly drafted the core of the next dynasty. I have never been a conspiracy-theory guy, so I don’t buy it, and as suggested, all the backdrops for that are gone now. Kobe is gone. Byron is gone. Phil and Jeanie are not engaged. Magic Johnson no longer holds any position with the Lakers, not even a ceremonial one.
And yet, the now unencumbered FO spent a lot of money on a couple of third-tier FAs in their 30s, the team is still losing with numbing regularity, is still dead last in the NBA in DRTG as per Bask Ref, and as Reed notes, the very brightest young stars in the NBA are on other teams.
So, the backdrop of the discussion has changed, and I am not seeing as much Stealth Tank stuff around as I was last year.
In any case, I think the current FO should either be changed out this year or should be in the saddle until 2020 to play out this hand. I would lean towards the former but either way clarity is needed.
_ Robert _ says
Alexander: Ingram is my fav as well. I think he has the best potential for stardom and I simply like him more. DAR gets on my nerves. I will still root for him, but he better watch out when I am behind the bench if he brings that “entitled” crap to a game he is going to get an earful from me. With regard to the “time will resolve the argument” : Indeed. Time will show the results. But “nailed it” is way premature as u clearly agree
_ Robert _ says
new rr rr:
“the team is still losing with numbing regularity, is still dead last in the NBA in DRTG as per Bask Ref, and …the very brightest young stars in the NBA are on other teams. ”
What year did you write this? Could have sworn we were saying the same in 2016, 2015, 2014
“Numbing regularity” Nice – I am putting that down right next to
“Unmitigated disaster”
LordMo says
_ Robert _ new rr
Ouch! But the truth hurts!
LordMo says
MT87
I do and that is exactly what scares me…lol. Jimbo really thought he had a playoff team on his hands. How else do you explain the splurging on Moz and Deng? His failure to evaluate talent and how far along the talent is really has hurt this franchise and maybe for years to come. The worst thing that ever happen in the FO was that Jerry West was forced out and Jimbo had some marginal success picking Bynum. He really thinks he has it figured out and that’s scary…really scary. Like I posted before if Jeanie was truly smart she would force everyone to the Owners Suite and find someone to run this Franchise. They would still have the joy of Ownership and I’m sure they could find jobs around the Franchise to keep themselves busy. Apparently, there is one exception as one of the younger Buss boys is supposed to be really sharp … so he needs to be brought in under Mitch and the new GM and mentored. He is probably the future of the FO.
LordMo says
Alexander_ _ Robert _
Devin Booker is better than DAR…hands down! And my prediction is if the Lakers keep their pick this year then the Russell experiment at PG is probably over. Every top PG in this years draft is better than him more athletic and better suited for the position at the pro level. This would result in DAR moving to the SG and would instantly make our backcourt more potent. But again the Lakers seemed fixed in their mindset to make this kid a star because he throws lazy “no look” passes. This is not the 80’s and we know he is not Earvin! The kid can shoot and really has a nice stroke…SG is where he needs to be. It is analogous to having an College QB who could play the position at that level but has to move to WR or QB at the next level. There is nothing wrong with putting your players in the best position to succeed.
KevTheBold says
LordMo
Is that what you got from the article?
For me it was that even though they screwed up, they were pretty darn proficient at picking drafts, and I agree.
As for the future of our core, though my enthusiasm has waned, I still know enough not to make any firm assessments, as to what they can, or cannot become.
If flashes tell us anything,.. The Potential is There !
LordMo says
The FO is a disaster the roster is poorly constructed these are facts. They did not mean to be in the draft lottery. Everyone keeps preaching the kids will be alright but really the chance that all of the young players will pan out traditionally is not the case. Really we are just excited to see new faces more than anything. But again I would love to be wrong Kev. I truly believe we are in for another couple years of lotto ball until we find that generational player.
ZoranJovanovic says
This was great analisys.
Maybe you could compare LAL to last year Wolves.
They had 8-8 start then fell of the cliff.
wwlofficial says
I’m not one to apologize for the front office, but is it really their fault that this team is still not in the playoffs? Its getting kinda old and its been beaten to death in discussion.
What I do know is there are posters here that can never be made happy even if we landed the 3 best players in the last 3 drafts.
In short, they’re going to complain no matter what.
Pbz06 says
Great article. Spot on analysis with context, especially towards DAR. I think a lot of these novice emotional “fans” are missing an opportunity to enjoy what’s in front of them and instead spend a lot of energy towards never being happy.
Pbz06 says
As I said in the last article, I’d like to see a detailed analysis on the bottom 10 teams in defensive efficiency and other ratings. I see a lot of complaining and whining about the Lakers’ defense and subjective adjectives randomly thrown out (i.e. lazy, effort, grit, blah blah) and act like it’s some critical failure either in coaching, the players, or whatever.
To no surprise to the guys that really follow the game as a whole, all the young teams are bunched together (Minny, Philly, Pho, Den, etc). You know, the teams with the prospects you guys are all jealous of and wish we had instead of DAR/Ingram/Zu/Randle 😉
FredP says
Pbz06 I agree with Reed’s assessment of the drafts over the last few years. I also do not think it is a coincidence that Ryan West helped scout the players. However, it is clear watching the games that Russell and Randle have never been held accountable for their defense. Remember that they have played basketball continuously for their schools and AAU. Basic defense like how to stop a fast break and who to pick up in transition should be muscle memory by now. Watch Nance play defense. Those are learned skills honed by practice. That is what Russell and Randle need to learn to get to the next level. The Lakers have excellent player development coaches and they have their work cut out for them. The team will be fun and frustrating to watch as they how to play at the pro level.
Pbz06 says
FredP Pbz06 That’s a very good and fair point, and I tend to agree with that. I have faith that these are the things that the staff are working on (hence their frustration sometimes). But in general, this is normal growing pains and I can guarantee you that it’s happening in Minnesota, Philly etc as well, hence their defensive metrics.
new rr says
Pbz06
Philadelphia is actually 10th in DRTG as per Bask Ref. With Noel and Embiid both available at last, it is no surprise that metrics show them as one of the very top NBA teams in terms of rim protection over the last month.
Coaching matters in the NBA. But all roads lead back to talent.
rafisher1 says
In Defense of Mozgov Signing
The Lakers had a huge hole at Center and they needed someone who was willing to come to a rebuilding franchise. They also had drafted Zubac who will need those four years of Mozgov’s contract to develop. Further, Mozgov and Zubac are both from Slavic cultures and Moz will help Zu make those cultural adjustments, which is way more important than most understand.
Looking strictly at basketball games, I can see why people are so upset with the Moz signing, but another point that is missed is the huge increase in cap money the league experienced. So the FO has this huge hole to fill, a huge pile of cash they have to spend and can’t spend it on the kids per the rules, after years of trying the FO realizes no big names are coming to the rebuild, and have a hugely promising Slavic center to raise. So who else than Mozgov that you had to sign right away so you could move on in the early hours of the draft?
If Zubac’s jersey ends up hanging in the rafters after his career is over, then that 64 mill was well spent – if not – it was a good try.
Vasheed says
rafisher1
I think Moz is the player that he has been through most of his career. The same guy that initially helped stabilize the Cavs defense. The problem is that for the reasons that he no longer fit the Cavs line-up he doesn’t fit in with the Lakers. The Lakers play better when they have someone in the Center who is more mobile.
The other problem is that Zu although still early looks like he might be ready sooner rather than later. It’s very awkward to pay Moz 16 million to be Zu’s backup or even Black’s backup.
I’m ambivalent about the Mozgov signing. There were clear reasons to sign him but, at this point his contract is awkward to justify going forward and looks difficult to unload.
rafisher1 says
Vasheed rafisher1
Right now he fills a need, and as time goes on and the CAP goes up, a trade is more likely. I hear you that Zu might be ready sooner, but historically it takes the trees longer to bloom, so from that viewpoint, Zu’s being ready may align closer to Mosgov’s departure than you think.
On the money, the projected CAP for 20019-2020 at the beginning of Moz’s 4th contract year, his 16 mil will 14.7% of cap, so a trade can be done.