To many of their fans’ dismay, the Lakers have won 3 straight games. The most recent came on Friday night, pulling out a close game on the stellar play of Julius Randle and key shot making by D’Angelo Russell. Randle’s 25 points paced the team and while his 6 rebounds were below his regular output, 5 of those came on the offensive glass where he created second chance points which were key to the win.
As for Russell, he only shot 4-10 from the field for his 14 points, but he hit both of his 4th quarter shots and scored 7 points in the final period. Both shots were big ones, the first a three pointer with the team trailing by 1 with under three minutes to go. In a back and forth affair that was ready to be taken by whichever team clamped down or hit the key shots, Russell’s 3 was a key basket.
But it was Russell’s other basket which stood out even more to me. With the Lakers again trailing by one and now less than a minute in the game, the Lakers ran a “screen the screener” set they went to a lot in the period in order to get Russell the ball. After a Clarkson/Nance P&R, Russell set a back screen for Nance on his roll, then popped out to the top of the key to create in isolation.
After making the catch, Russell went to work. In cases like this most of the season, Russell has either called for a pick or worked out of the triple-threat to take a long jumper — mostly to mixed results. This time Russell wasted little time and instead attacked the paint. Using the threat of the same jumper he hit just two minutes earlier, Russell swung through, drove hard to his left hand, and finished at the rim over the contesting big man to give the Lakers a lead. The basket proved to be the winning one as the Kings wouldn’t score again.
That drive by Russell was one of his most assertive plays of the season.
— Darius Soriano (@forumbluegold) April 8, 2017
The above tweet was my immediate reaction to Russell’s assertiveness. And whether that play is an indicator of where his game is going or not, seeing him actually do it is a step forward. Further, it’s indicative of the type of play I was thinking about when I wrote that these final games are important for the young players even when the backdrop is a season where wins are not only fewer than expected, but now impacting lottery odds in May.
Despite that, though, I couldn’t help but smile. As I noted after the game, isn’t that exact play (not to mention Randle’s superb play and Ingram’s continuing upward trajectory in the 2nd half of the season) what this season was about?
Lakers pulling out wins w/ their young guys making plays. What so many folks wanted all year. Until now. I'm just gonna enjoy these guys.
— Darius Soriano (@forumbluegold) April 8, 2017
I mean, it sounds crazy, but if I can't enjoy these guys playing well/making good plays to win, what the hell am I even watching for.
— Darius Soriano (@forumbluegold) April 8, 2017
I don’t want to get into the psychology of any of this. And I’m not going to tell anyone else how to feel about anything. There are arguments on both sides of the tanking discussion and no one needs to explain the lottery odds to me. I’m pretty capable of not only understanding the math, but also of playing out the scenarios about the 2017 and 2019 picks + how another top pick helps in team building.
What I will say, though, is pretty simple: I’m just going to compartmentalize these things the best I can.
When the Lakers win, I’m going to be happy for these players for doing the thing any of us would want from them — no, what we actually did want from them heading into the season. They’re playing well and, in the last three games, have made winning basketball plays. That may not matter to some, but it matters to me. And if the Lakers lose their pick, I’m going to be disappointed about that. Because that’s actually the thing to be disappointed about.
I’m not dumb. I understand there’s a connection between these things. That by winning the Lakers are locking themselves into the 3rd worst record. I understand that with that slot, the odds of them retaining their pick are lower than if they had the 2nd worst record. These things are true and the math is real.
Whether ends up mattering on lottery night is a parallel and different discussion, since, you know, it’s a lottery. The odds matter but odds are defied or reinforced with these things every single year. The Lakers know this as well as anyone since they defied them two seasons ago when they jumped from 4th to 2nd in the draft where they secured Russell.
Ultimately, though, what happens on lottery night happens. What I’m not going to allow to happen is me feeling bad or upset over the players who I want to play well actually playing well. Life is too short for all that. Being a fan of a bad team is too crappy already for that. So, I’m going to enjoy watching these kids make winning plays. And I’ll feel how I feel about the next thing too, just as I know you will.
TempleOfJamesWorthy says
Well said. It’s tough to both pull for the Lakers to win while recognizing winning games could cost the Lakers two crucial draft picks. I guess compartmentalization is the best coping strategy.
RR says
I would be frustrated by the win streak if the Lakers were winning because of Young and Williams. But since the org. did the right thing and traded Williams and has shut down Young/Deng/Mozgov, I am not that upset. As I said the other day, if a few wins come because of young guys getting reps and fringe guys hustling, so be it. Since Brewer is 31 and his deal for next year is locked, I am not as sanguine about him, but while he has the money, he is trying to establish that he is worth a little PT, here or elsewhere.
A Horse With No Name says
Darius above: “Being a fan of a bad team is too crappy already for that.” Can I get an amen, brother?
Robert says
Kev: Many of us have made predictions, and we are correct sometimes and incorrect sometimes. However – in the last thread you did something few on this board ever do. So – kudos to you. Also, we can still hope that we have a 2-3 starters or 6th man types, so that when we get the SuperStars, we will have the next tier guys on the roster already.
KevTheBold says
Robert, appreciate the kinds words, and I agree, I hope as well.
KevTheBold says
Great Read Darius, and logical to a degree which only mindless emotion could find fault with.
Definitely improved my view, and my feelings, and though I still hope we can land a top 3 pick, I suppose I could find satisfaction with our current core without hopes of a return to greatness.
Satisfaction is good, but being a greedy 4 plus decade Laker fan, I’m always wishing for more than satisfaction, towards, happiness.
Thus if we lose our pick, may Magic and Pelinka have rabbits to pull from their collective hat.
Alexander says
My sentiments exactly Darius. Let’s recall the beginning of the season, where hope was burning bright and our collective anticipation was not around getting the top-3 pick but around youngster development. The pick was assumed gone by most of us. Then we started 10-10, and everyone ratcheted up their aspirations to include a shot at playoffs. Then injuries broke our chemistry, the team got more lopsided with LWill becoming Kobe Jr, and the losses piled up, sort of as we were expecting them at the start. Every one of us it seems wrote back then, “I don’t care how many we win or lose, as long as the youngsters develop”. Well, throughout the season but especially post the All Star break, our team has been developing nicely. BI is starting to look like a true future star, DAR too. Zubac, Randle, Nance, Clarkson, all showing NBA starter potential. We now have at least one pick in the draft, a coin toss chance at a top talent, and a max FA slot. The Mitch-Jimmy duo we loved to hate (I still love Mitch btw) is gone, replaced by savvy, charismatic newcomers Magic and Rob. Despite an unusual and trying season, I believe we are ahead of even our best expected scenarios seven months ago.
I hear you, the Moz-Deng were disaster signings. Yet, let’s not forget our max exposure (if we decide to stretch both because they are untradeable and useless) is ~14m salary cap hit, reclaiming another $20m of cap space, in addition to $20m from Brewer, Young, Black – all coming off before PG13/Boogie become UFA’s.
And we picked up David Nwaba from the garbage heap. IMHO, Nwaba maybe a rotational player for us for a decade, with crazy all-NBA defensive potential and passable offense. He is a force already – an infectious glue guy, our new Kurt Rambis in today’s perimeter oriented NBA. The kind of guy you can only hope your late 1st round pick becomes.
Even if we don’t get the top-3 pick, this will prove in retrospect to have been a good season. If we do get it, a great one.
Craig W. says
We are establishing a deeper well of talent among all our young players. This can only help us when it comes time to evaluate who we want to keep next year and who can bring us what we want through any trades we might make.
Other clubs have these games as well and they have more film to evaluate and determine if that player we might be willing to ‘throw in’ could help their club in the near future. All our young players playing and playing well only helps us in this area.
drrayeye says
If you want an example of knowing how to win and when to hold back, look to San Antonio. Don’t look to the Lakers.
Craig W. says
The rules for the Lakers and San Antonio are somewhat different. The fan bases are different and the cities are greatly different. Not trying to say anything about better/worse, just different. The Lakers long history in a large market has also made them a target when new CBAs are introduced/bargained for, i.e. their methods have been specifically targeted. This has had an uneven impact on the club, but – when paired with the death of Jerry Buss – it cannot be denied that the league has taken actions that were targeted to hamper how the Lakers have done business in the past.
There is absolutely no doubt that San Antonio is the measure by which all front offices are measured, but each club must also understand which players will be happy in the respective cities – it varies throughout the league. This difference also guides what these players will demand from the clubs.
grumpy says
I was a little more upset with some of the other wins, but ultimately, I’m trying not to let it bother me. The lottery is so unpredictable that the third spot could end up being the most valuable spot depending on how the ping pong balls are feeling that day. Obviously, by staying in third, the Lakers are not putting themselves in the best statistical odds, but you never know what could happen (good or bad). Can’t really fault the players for doing what they are paid to do.
Also, reading some of the other threads, I think some here are a little too quick to assess that we don’t have any star talent on our roster. It’s extremely rare that a guy can come in and be a high level contributor within his first few years in the league. I think it’s also worth mentioning that Ingram in particular is a very, very young player. To put it into perspective, he’s actually very close in age to some of the upcoming freshmen lottery picks (he’s younger than Josh Jackson and he’s two months older than Lonzo Ball).
mattal says
I am not as optimistic about the kids as I was before the season started. I think only Ingram has an All Star future. Randle and Russell are so inconsistent which is worrisome, even at their young age.
I agree with Robert we have 2 to 3 starters and some nice rotation guys. We are ripe pickings for two young elite FAs to come in and rocket this thing forward.
That’s why the Mozgov/Deng signings are such a killer. Had we the $65 mil in cap space we had last summer I’d be more positive about the near term — even without the picks.
I think this is a critical summer. If we get the pick we are likely adding a future All Star that might make the team attractive to an elite FA. Losing the pick will be a shot to the organization and as Anon in the previous thread said ‘everyone and everything’ is likely to be in play.
My gut says Magic/Pelinka are not tied to the kids like Mitch was. Keeping the pick may give the new FO reason to let this play out ‘as is’ with the kids for another season. Losing the pick will hasten the execution of their plans to improve the team.
Anonymous says
Ingram been very inconsistent too.. he’s averaging more mpg than Russell rookies year but yet Russell averaged more across the board.. people need to start holding Ingram accountable just like y’all do Russell.
Justin says
Ingram’s consistency has been much better since the all star break. And it’s still his rookie year. And he is 19. That’s why he gets a little more leash than players who have been with the team the last couple of years. I’m excited to see what he brings next season.
Phil says
Show me any rookie, even top tier, who hasn’t been inconsistent. Inconsistency is part of being a young player. Towns is a machine and even he had consistency issues last year. What are we supposed to be “holding Ingram accountable” for? 14ppg on 50+% from the field since the all star break, with increased usage and aggressiveness? I’ll gladly hold him accountable for that.
As for Russell, young guards in particular are always inconsistent and he hasn’t exactly had a normal first two year development for a potential star player. Byron and competing for the ball with Kobe/Lou has stunted his development. Luke isn’t blameless either. But since the all star break he’s been much more consistently effective, even when he isn’t shooting well. I’ll judge them both based on their continued development next year, but for God’s sake stop treating these guys like scrubs.
KevTheBold says
I admire your faith Phil, I really do, and hope for the best, especially for Russell who has been on the unfortunate side of circumstance.
For me personally however, though I have always recognized his undeniable talent, I have waited patiently two seasons, for his heart to burst through and remain.
Though I may be premature in this, I no longer believe that he has the heart of a champion; and the greatest of talents without that lion heart to go with it, equals an occasional all star, but not the super star we require to propel ourselves back to the top of the NBA.
But keep the faith. A part of me will be with you.
Craig W. says
Back in Michael Jordan’s day you mostly had to play 4 yrs of college before ‘being allowed’ to enter the NBA. Absolutely huge difference in physical and mental development and a much better college game from which to measure the incoming talent.
Now it is a real crapshoot to draft any player, never mind we fans demand that player impact the NBA in his rookie year. Russell, Wilt, Oscar, Jerry, Kareem may have been able to do this in their time, but only Lebron has been able to change the game in his rookie year.
To make definitive statements about Russell or Ingram at this time is simply folly. Julius is old enough and developed enough to make some valuations, but the others are simply too green to say, with real knowledge, that we know what their future holds. Let me know how many people could have predicted superstardom for Steph Curry towards the end of his 2nd year – yea right!
RR says
I have explained a few times why the Curry comp doesn’t work. Curry was hitting .437 from the arc even as a rookie and has .535 EFG as a rookie. In his second year, at 22, he was at a 19.4 PER. What has happened since then is that he continued to up his 3PA while not losing efficiency–this actually started under Mark Jackson and went to another level under Kerr. The other thing that has happened is that his % at the rim has spiked under Kerr; Curry was at .696 last year and still at .643 now. This is presumably due to GS’s amazing array of weapons on O opening up the floor.
Russell OTOH had a .478 TS last year and is at .485 now. He shot .351 from the arc last year and is at .354 now. Simply put, Curry is probably the greatest long-range shooter in NBA history, so he is useless as a comp for Russell. And, it is pretty clear that Russell does not have the athleticism of Wall or Westbrook, nor the size and foul-drawing skill of Harden.
That said, if things go well for him, Russell can be as valuable as a guy like Kemba Walker, Mike Conley, or even Damian Lillard, and maybe Ingram can be a guy who is as valuable as Nic Batum or even Paul George. And if that happens, the Lakers will have something and may be in position to leverage that base into a contender. So there is hope.
RR says
The .478 and .485 on DAR are EFG, not TS.
Craig W. says
It isn’t that Russell is Curry; it’s that we don’t know what Russell will be. Probably not a superstar, but he could be a periodic all-star. That would be enough for us to want to keep him for a run as a contender. We need more than one superstar to make this thing go.
RR says
This is pretty much what some of us have been saying all year. It is not that Russell is a bust or that he is useless; he is neither. For a PG his age, he is, as I have said, doing pretty well overall. It is that he is almost certainly not going to be a cornerstone guy, so the Lakers still need to get that guy. What the Lakers actually need is a guy with HOF-level skills (like say Anthony Davis) and an ASG-level guy (like say Paul George). But short of that, they need one top-10 guy or two Top-25 guys.
And that, as mattal points out, brings us back around to the financial reality of the Deng and Mozgov deals. When you combine the weight of those deals with the fact that the team is still down draft picks, that will make it harder for Magic and Pelinka to make those moves, since they have fewer picks and less money to work with to try to get them done.
RR says
I agree with most of this.
I have a higher opinion of Russell than Robert does, and I like Ingram in spite of the shaky metrics. Ingram has done much better in some key areas the last 15 games or so. But I ultimately do not think that the 2020s will be remembered as the Brandon Ingram/D’Angelo Russell Era of Championships. But I like both guys and think that they will be good to very good players.
As to the FO, one point about the picks: if the team loses the 2017 pick, then they have the 2018 pick unconditionally and they lose the 2019 pick, unconditionally. So, that would incentivize waiting to make big moves. Ride 2017-18 out with the young guys, get another lotto pick in 2018, then try to sign George and maybe another guy if they can one of the Dengov deals off the books in the summer of 2018 so that the Lakers are at least a borderline playoff team in 2019 when the pick is gone anyway.
RR says
BTW my post at 509 pm is addressed to Mattal.
mattal says
RR — my line of thinking was that if we keep the pick the FO would be fine with organic growth next year. The players at the very top of the lottery are projected to have impact as 1st year players (Fultz/Ball/Jackson). It’s not a huge reach that any of these three would be the best player on the floor for the Lakers next year.
Losing the pick would require the FO to make a move/moves to bring in talent to dial up the win meter. And I think Magic/Pelinka are mandated to do just that — win more.
While I see your point that the 2018 pick is all ours — I don’t envision the organization will risk enduring another season that puts them in the running for a high lottery pick.
RR says
You may be right; I was talking about what I think the FO should do if they lose the pick, not what they will do. Jeanie seems to subscribe the Great Man Theory of Lakers History. Reportedly, the guys she was looking at for Pres of BBall Ops were Jerry West, Phil Jackson, Kobe Bryant, and, ofc. Magic Johnson. So she may think that having two charismatic big-name guys like Magic and Pelinka in charge will make The Lakers back into The Lakers in fairly short order. But the league is very different than it was in her father’s time, and the Lakers are in a deep crater. So if the pick is lost or even if they keep it, I think the logical course for 2017-18 is to mend nets rather than trying to reel in the big fish. We will see.
Finally, I don’t claim any special draft acumen, but I will be surprised if Fultz/Ball/Jackson are high-impact out of the gate. As one-and-dones who are not skilled bigs, I expect that they will, like most other lottery guys of that type taken in the last few drafts, have serious learning curves.
mattal says
RR– As one of the most astute contributors on this site, I always appreciate your insight.
Like you noted, I was also speaking from what I think the FO will do. My sense is that there is great impatience and pressure on many fronts for the Lakers to be more competitive sooner than later.
My preference would be to roll with most of the kids another year. Even without the pick I think we could still keep things intact. I’d target acquiring young players with upside (Oubre and Portis) to fill holes. In other words I’d do everything I could to keep the competitive window open for as long as possible. I fear trades for older players that would shrink that window.
Of course my plan would not get us to the 8th seed next year but would improve our defense, add assets and hopefully change the trajectory of the team in a positive way.
Clay Bertrand says
I think it could be a reckless philosophy for the FO to see losing the Top 3 pick as a reason to go in FULL TRADE mode to bring in more talent. The notion that with LESS assets, the FO should go into the market to somehow bring in MORE talent just makes no sense.
It makes more sense purely from a team building perspective to do the exact opposite. If they KEEP the pick, perhaps then they go into the market.
Its like finding out you got a pay cut and then going on a shopping spree.
This looming potential desperation is worrisome especially with Queen Jeanie whining for an All Star to go with the All Star Game LA is hosting. I really hope that Pelinka and Magic won’t just dump the kids and the pick in a block buster for George or Jimmy Butler just so we can have an “All Star”.
Mozgov, Deng, Nwaba, Ennis and Paul George and NO CAP ROOM.
I don’t dig this scenario…..
Alexander says
No kidding. Next year’s FA batch is very good, we’ll have a good pick in 2018, and one max FA slot. Plus, the kids will be better and therefore more valuable in trade, or turn into keepers. Gutting the team now for any star is idiotic. What’s the rush anyway? We ain’t beating the GSW with PG and the South Bay Lakers.