What you see here is a venn diagram. It is a simple thing you are likely familiar with. You probably used these in elementary school to learn about all types of things.
If you’re not familiar, well, each circle represents a quality and the overlapping portions of those circles means whatever person/place/thing you’re applying the diagram to has more than one of those qualities. The sweet spot is that small triangle looking part in the middle where all three circles overlap.
Got it? Good.
Now, the venn diagram above represents player traits I think are important for any player the Lakers acquire moving forward. Again, this is pretty straight forward, but if you have questions about this, here’s why:
Shooting: Shooting creates spacing which creates more distance for defenses to travel which opens up how a team can play offense and how easily they are defended. Shooting doesn’t just mean creating a math problem for your opponent (3 > 2), but creates logistical problems. How many times can you recover from the paint to the three point line effectively? How easily can you close out without giving up dribble drives against that close out? How disciplined can you be when covering screen actions run for a really good shooter? The answer to these questions is often “not very” over the course of a full game when you’re dealing with a team that has a bunch of really good shooters. Right now, the Lakers are not one of those teams. I would like that to change.
Passing: A talented passer not only delivers passes to an open teammate, he actually passes a teammate open. If you don’t understand the difference, watch a handful of Warriors possessions when Draymond Green or David West is operating at the elbow while Klay Thompson/Steph Curry/Kevin Durant set screens for each other. Also, talented passers operate as natural ball movers — they see the game a beat ahead and, due to this, rarely have the ball stick with them. The Lakers currently have very few players like this. Russell and Ingram stand out, here. Nance is good. Randle shows potential in this area, but his instincts often leave him holding the ball as he explores for an opportunity for himself first. Zubac shows good instincts here, but is an unknown. And..that’s it. The Lakers need more passing. Especially with Luke Walton as their head coach.
Defense: The Lakers are terrible at defense. Defense is half the game. They need more and better defensive players. I’d say more, but it’s really not more complicated than this.
Moving forward, then, I think it’s wise to look at every player the Lakers are even considering through the prism of how they might fit into the diagram above. Ideally, you want a player who is in that sweet spot, even if they don’t do those things at more than a “role player” level. I mean, when the Lakers were winning championships in the early 2000’s, guys like Rick Fox and Robert Horry were only “role players” but they still fit right into that sweet spot of guys who could do all three.
However, if you can’t do all three, that’s fine. Two is still very good and those guys can still be very important contributors. Look at the Warriors and guys like Shaun Livingston or Andre Iguodala. They’re not “shooters” in a traditional sense, but they’re very good/great defenders who are also excellent passers. Even if you only do one of those things well at an elite enough level, you can end up being a contributing player.
And, of course, there is a spectrum within these qualities. In going back to the Iguodala/Livingston examples, the former can hit the open 3 pointer at a good enough level to make defenses pay (on a good day). Livingston doesn’t stretch the floor to the 3 point line, but can hit 16-18 footers and has a strong post game. These skills supplement passing/defense to make a more complete player can contribute to a top team.
So, for the Lakers, I don’t think the diagram should be an end-all, be-all but, rather, more a guide for how they look at players they are interested in. And, considering they lack a lot of guys who check off more than two of those traits (and most of their players don’t hit the “defense” one at all), I hope they do really invest in this trinity of skill sets this summer and beyond.
Minor Threatt says
If the pick is Ball, and absent another move, they need to nail #28 with the kind of 3&D swingman we hoped Anthony Brown might be. Or just plain D. Josh Hart would be worth considering if he’s there.
Minor Threatt says
If Ball is the pick, and absent any other move, they really need to nail #28 with the kind of 3&D guy we hoped Anthony Brown would be. Or just plain D. Josh Hart would be worth considering, if available. Polished, steady, potentially ready to fight for a rotation spot.
Travis Y. says
Andrew Sharp from SI details the reasons why Fox is the better path to relevance.
http://amp.timeinc.net/si/nba/2017/05/19/nba-draft-lakers-lonzo-ball-deaaron-fox-kentucky-ucla?source=dam
Minor Threatt says
I can see this argument, though I worry Fox is Mudiay 2.0…a great athlete/slasher who will probably never crack 40 percent shooting in the NBA, and isn’t a good enough distributor/defender to make up for it. I know both shooting and defense can be taught…but I’m more skeptical of obtaining value by wishing for the former, than the latter.
Vasheed says
One of the early indicators of future shooting is free throw shooting. Mudiay was a terrible free throw shooter. Fox is better than Ball from the charity stripe.
Mikey says
The reason why free throws are often looked at, in lieu of 3 point shooting is because many college players will only shoot 25-50 shots over the course of a season. Ball shot about 5 and a half shots per game, meaning over 150, and nailed 41% of them. At that point the sample size is large enough to allow for projections.
Also, Fox hit 31% of his pull up jumpers, and 20% of his catch and shoot attempts, on the season.
He’s also 6’2″ with a 6’6.5″ wingspan, which means he’s tiny for a wing defender. Marcus Smart has a 6’9″ wingspan. That’s how you get it done. Not Fox. He’s never going to aspire to anywhere near what Ball does on the floor…
Vasheed says
College players often take many 3pt shots. However, the NBA 3pt line is 4 feet further out which distorts statistics. The free throw line tends to indicate good shooting mechanics. I have my doubts Ball can get his shot off at the NBA level without being wide open. As for size Fox has decent size for a PG. You were taking his height without shoes.
Ryan says
Fox is overrated on the defensive end. He plays hard on that end which is great and a sign that he could get a lot better, but his foot work and instincts are bad. He often finds his momentum going forward which will allow’s players to get a step on him. In Colleges he used his speed and athleticism to make up for this, but in the NBA giving up that little bit of space to allow a player to get past him will allow most pgs to get straight to the basket.
He doesn’t seem to be a terrible shooter though. He’s decent off the dribble but pretty bad in catch and shooting and long distance. His form seems inconsistant, which is something he can improve on.
He’s also not a great playmaker. He can make the simple read, drive and pass to the open man. He’s going to a very ball dominant player. On this venn diagram he has the potential to be a good defender and I think he can improve as a shooter but he will never be a good passer. He’s not going to be a guy who moves the ball well. He’ll be a guy who can break down a defender of the dribble to get to the basket and then be able to make the simple play to an open teammate, but I don’t know if he will work well in a motion offense where he’s going to asked to work off the ball alot.
I don’t think he’s a great fit for offense Luke wants to run, but if they think he’s the best player available they will have to adjust the offense to make it work.
drrayeye says
Darius,
I’d like to see you develop this a bit further, both in terms of our existing roster, and in terms of the draft. I think your “trinity” presupposes size, reach, and athleticism. You need to expand your discussion. You don’t mention basketball IQ at all–which was a factor in our earlier selection of DLO for sure, and probably Nance as well. I expect basketball IQ to be stressed much more in the emerging Magic era Laker team. Also players with that “it” factor.
I wonder how much the passing and defense parts of your trinity count in a first round #2 pick for the Lakers.
Activities toward the end of last year and the earlier acquisition of veterans by the FO had defense and passing in mind–Brewer, Mwaba, Mozgov, Deng, MWP, Robinson, and Black for defense; Tyler Ennis was undoubtedly brought in as a younger pass first alternative to Huertas and Calderon at pg.
Here’s what’s happened so far: MWP is gone for sure–and almost all of the remaining players are marginal or threatened.
Our logic is strained: even though Deng can pass, shoot, and play better defense than Randle at the 4, we played Deng out of position at the 3 to develop Randle–despite our financial investment in Deng.
Blaming the me-first scorer may have been unfair: After Lew Williams was traded, Clarkson, DLO, and Randle all took over his one on one role on various occasions. The passing game didn’t suddenly spring up.
Only in the final spurt did many defense and passing guys play–and the Lakers won.
If we draft a two way defense oriented player like Josh Jackson, how much will he play?
Tar Baby says
“If we draft a two way defense oriented player like Josh Jackson, how much will he play?”
=========
I think this diagram probably applies more to trades and free agency than the draft, where you typically take the best player available.
I know Magic said he wanted to save his cap space, but the Lakers have nearly $20m coming off the books in Young/Brewer/Black – they could theoretically sign a mid-tier player this offseason and still have enough space for a top-tier player next.
I think it should be Patty Mills myself – good range, solid defense and championship experience to backup Ball or whomever the Lakers commit to at the point.
Chris Jones says
On court fit in L.A.? Sure. But Patty Mills would wish to leave San Antonio (and a chance to play in the Conference Finals or possibly NBA Finals every year) why?
Tar Baby says
My pitch would be:
1) Spurs have an again roster that’s not getting by the Warriors as currently constructed and doesn’t have the cap space to sign impact FAs this summer (especially if they have to pay Mills).
2) He will have to sit behind Parker for at least one more year – who knows what happens after that? Pop isn’t getting any younger…if they can’t reload he may just call it a career, at which point they will need a complete rebuild and he may not fit into the future vision.
3) The Lakers’ an offer him a nice raise without jeopardizing next year’s cap space and a chance to compete for the starting position next year…even if they draft Ball.
4) The Lakers have a young, talented roster supplemented with a #2 overall – they will be entering their prime just as GS is exiting theirs and the Spurs are rebuilding. HC and new management aren’t going anywhere and are committed to Mills.
Tough sell to be sure, but I think it could work…
A Horse With No Name says
Dude, you should have just quoted DX and attributed your source.
Pbz06 says
I agree with everyone so far about Fox. Stay away. Fultz and Ball should really be the only choice at the top. I can see a case for Josh Jackson but that is it.
Fern says
A Vern diagram… i can see why you need to bring it up LOL
TempleOfJamesWorthy says
While the Venn Diagram is a useful tool for thinking about player acquisition, it has two shortcomings.
The first is doesn’t account for magnitudes of the various factors. A Venn Diagram won’t tell you that mediocre shooting and below-average defense combined with ne plus ultra passing = Magic Johnson. Similarly, the Venn Diagram would not have told you superior defense + adequate passing + terrible shooting = Kawahi Leonard or, at least, it wouldn’t project MVP Candidate Kawahi Leonard. The Venn Diagram can’t tell you how to weight those factors or how they might change over time.
The second shortcoming is the synergistic effects some player skills have. One of the oft-cited characteristics of superior passers is their play encourages teammates to improve their own passing awareness/execution. Similarly, a dominant defensive player can be the catalyst for a team’s overall defensive improvement (e.g. Tony Allen in Memphis).
I don’t know if Lonzo Ball, DeAaron Fox, or someone else would be the best draft pick for the Lakers (or if trading the pick for an established player would be more valuable). Even with Venn Diagrams, composing an NBA roster is an inexact science.
A Horse With No Name says
https://theringer.com/2017-nba-draft-los-angeles-lakers-lonzo-ball-76ers-d9f529dc1437
Very good discussion on whether or not Ball should go at #2 to the lakers.
Alexander says
Loved the use of Venn for the skills trifecta! The one thing that it doesn’t depict well however, is intensity/quality of the skill. Magic wasn’t a great shooter or defender, but was truly elite in passing and its related effect, controlling the game’s tempo. Watching Ball UCLA highlight vids brings back memories, this kid sees the game faster than others and can react with great creativity. Magic, Cousy, Kidd – Ball’s predecessors are in the HOF.
I am more concerned that the Celtics pick Ball than the Lakers passing on him if available. Ball is going to transform our team’s play starting in his first practice.
Anonymous says
Ball is going to transform our team’s play starting in his first practice.
___
And if not, Lavar will blame the FO, the coach and Lonzo’s team mates.
If the Celtics want Lonzo there’s not much you can do about it. I happen to think Fultz would be a better fit with the Lakers anyway.
Anonymous says
Ball will change any team he goes to. But LaVar worries me too – reminds me of Doug Christie’s obnoxious wife! However, the Lakers (and the league) have some powerful levers against any out-of-line player/agent/entourage. I presume Lavar wants to get in good terms with the LAL FO, not start a fight and get his ass oakley’d. The NBA is a professional league, where the drafting team holds all the cards. Which is also why if Boston decides to pick Ball, they get Ball, and it’s end of story. Besides, Fultz is a stud, so I won’t be heartbroken if we don’t get Ball in that case.
Alexander says
The Anonymous post at 2:42 was my (Alexander) reply
FredP says
I like the venn diagram to remind us of the need for well rounded players. Here is a nice description of the Warriors motion offense along with video examples: The Beautiful Chaos Of The Warriors’ Offense These clips highlight how difficult it is to evaluate players in isolation. There needs to be a trigger man who can make the pass, a cutter who spends the energy running around the weak side players, and a screener who can pick out a defender and slow him down. The venn diagram becomes a team diagram to account for all of these actions.
The Warriors clips also show how far the Lakers need to evolve their offense and how difficult it is to evaluate their talent. They did not use weak side motions and preferred to have their weak side players stand around on the perimeter of the 3 point line. It remains to be seen how effective they could have been if they were allowed to make a move (I am thinking of Redford as the Sundance Kid). This offense creates open looks without having to stretch the floor with 3 point shooters. So for the existing players, I think they need another year to show what they can do. Players coming in need to be able to pass so the offense can be run by multiple players.
LT Mitchell says
The Warriors offense is a thing of beauty, but it works well because they are loaded with talented offensive players with high basketball IQs. The same goes for their defense. If the Lakers want to mimic Golden State, they have to find a way to add talent (and subtract liabilities) on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. Lonzo Ball and Ingram will make a solid foundtaion. Let’s hope the new front office surrounds these players with players who have overlapping skills in the Venn Diagram.
Tar Baby says
I made a case above for/to Patty Mills as a free agent target this offseason….even if they draft Ball. I’d even overpay to get him as the Lakers desperate need an experience PG.
Offer Mills $7m – that would double his current salary put the Lakers’ roster at $70m guaranteed going into 2018/19, which should be enough for a max FA:
PG: Ball/Mills
SG: Russell/Clarkson
SF: Ingram
PF: LNJ/Deng
C: Moz/Zub
(no order)
The only thing I’m not sure about is Randle – I believe the Lakers can go over the cap to re-sign him? If so, they can pay the tax in 2018/19 and avoid the “repeat offender” tag when they clear Moz/Deng in 2019/20.
Tell me I’m crazy.
(and then tell me if you think this is a good idea)
Alan says
If you could take a blank piece of paper and list player names you think would make a good blend of veterans and youngster, who would you list? Paul George and Russell Westbrook are rumored to want to play for the Lakers?
If that was validated, would you trade 2/3 of the players on the current team, including Moz and Deng and this year’s number two pick to aquire them? Which five players on the team would you keep, recognizing good players would have to go to get rid of expensive contracts. Example: maybe Clarkson and #28 pick help get Moz or Dengs contract off the books?
Getting players that line up with the Venn diagram is going to require assessment of current players and a blank piece of paper, it’s not simply getting George.
In the off season, current NBA players are going to be sitting in a hotel room somewhere plotting how to get two or three players on a team to make a run at a ring. What do the Lakers have to do in order to be the team of choice?
I think it will take three or four years, but with the right message, the Lakers can do it.
Mikey says
The TRUTH about De’Aron Fox vs. Ball.
Guys, please, this one ain’t close. We’re better than that. De’Aron Fox is an undersized, super athletic, terrible shooting, point guard with subpar play creation skills. If you are in love with Elfrid Payton, or Toney Douglas, or Rajon Rondo, then he’s your guy. If you want an actual quality player he’s not, and here’s the facts to prove it.
1. He can’t shoot. He’s a terrible shooter. Aside from obvious flaws in his shooting form, he shot under 25% from 3, which is better than the 20% he shot on catch and shoots in the halfcourt. Of course, he shined in his pull up jumpers, nailing 31%. Now, yes, he’s a great athlete, and he was able to kill in transition and on some drives. But he can’t shoot, and he’ll need to shoot to be a quality guard, ergo, he won’t be a quality guard.
2. He’s hugely undersized to be a quality NBA defender. Perhaps you noticed he was measured a few weeks ago at the NBA combine. He came out at 6’2″. That’s not too terrible, but his wingspan was only 6’6.5″. That’s terrible. Marcus Smart has a 6’9″ wingspan. Elfrid Payton was 6’2.5″ with a 6’8″ wingspan, and he’s borderline sizewize. Tony Allen has a 6’9″ wingspan. Lonzo Ball has a 6’9″ wingspan and is at least a couple of inches taller than De’Aron Fox.
3. He’s a mediocre passer. While Fox can push the ball, he’s not anywhere near elite in transition the way that Ball is, and there’s never been a guard who was an elite half court passer who couldn’t shoot the ball, for the simple reason that your teammates have to play 4 on 5 since you can’t draw a defender. Everyone remember Kobe guarding Rondo in the 2010 finals, and sinking down below the free throw line ? Yeah, well that’s how LA won the series. Boston has much better defense, but Kobe being able to play zone and crowd the middle effectively shout down Boston’s offense to the point that the defenses cancelled out.
It would be a huge, huge, huge mistake to pass on a league leading transition player, and passer, who has elite length, an already good outside shot, and the cutting and catch and shoot, and post up or lob ability… in ADDITION to having above average defensive skills (go to draft express… Lonzo Ball… the video called ‘physical tools’ and look for the section starting halfway through demonstrating his great footwork, shadowing, staying on his man, fighting to recover after screens, etc.). And if you’re going to do it, you don’t do it for an undersized, undershooting, under half-court playmaking guard whose primary attribute is to guard anyone who is short enough to be hampered by a 6’2″ guard with short arms.
It’s Ball baby. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of history.
Clay Bertrand says
I’m not a Ball hater……..I just want the Lakers to obviously pick the best player possible.
Don Maclean says Lonzo Ball’s closest NBA comparison isn’t Jason Kidd………He says its Kendall Marshall………….(I personally think that’s a bit insulting to Ball…..)
Just sayin there are a range of opinions on Ball. It would be interesting to hear Bill Walton’s take as a guy who covered the PAC-12. This was a point mentioned on Spectrum SN I believe……….He has certainly seen him play more than Luke.
I think that the closest NBA comp in terms of Ball’s awkward shot is Kevin Martin but even Martin is not as odd of a shooter as Ball. At least Jamal Wilkes and W.B. Free had awkward releases way back over their heads making the shot tough to block. It’ll be interesting to see if he can at least tighten up his delivery even if they can’t change his shot altogether. We see how DLo’s effortless delivery has helped him create his shot without being a crazy athlete.
If Ball can’t get by guys without an elite first step and he can’t shoot over them because of the low and slow, Cross-Body, Sling-Shot delivery, that’s gonna be a problem.
LT Mitchell says
Kendall Marshall??? That is a hilarious and haterific comparison. Their passing game is somewhat comparable, but Ball dominates Marshall in athleticism, shooting and defense. Ball is more Jason Kidd with 30 foot range, but most importantly, he is one of the rare players who I would define as a ‘culture changer’. Culture changers like Kobe and Lebron transform the mindset of the entire team and organization with sheer will power. They have a mysterious vibrational energy that infects those around them. Call it being the chosen one, or the force, or whatever. Players like, Kyrie and Stephen Curry, who are elite and amazing players, would not be considered culture changers in my book. Draymond Green is someone I would consider a culture changer. Fox? Marshall?? Please. Ball is the easy no brainier pick, and there is no way on God’s green earth that the ultimate culture changer, Magic, will pick anyone else. Book it.
KevTheBold says
Agree totally. Fox may be a hustler, but his talent is sub-par.
A Horse With No Name says
Mikey: Don’t be surprised if Fultz and Jackson go in the first two picks. Jackson is that rare, high athleticism, skilled passer, evolving shooter, two-way 2/3 who might end up being a superstar. High floor, can’t miss prospect. Ball has worrying flaws that might not be fixable, plus he’s a bad paring with DAR, who is going to make a leap forward this season. Jackson please!
Clay Bertrand says
Horse, much like 2 years ago, there is true intrigue to a degree with the Laker pick. Last year was pretty obvious perception at least that there was Simmons, Ingram and then a drop off in talent. With the #2 pick, we knew we were getting one of those guys and most likely, Ingram.
This year, the likelihood of the Celtics taking Fultz is about the same high % it was for the Sixers to take Simmons last year IMO. The intrigue will come with the Laker pick—OR it won’t if Ball as a Laker has been Spoken into Existence. Jackson IS similar to Kawhi in that he is a higher motor wing who plays D and is athletic. He is also similar as an unfinished product on offense with a shot that needs work and some improvement on his handles.
Much as Kawhi has drastically improved both his ball handling and his shooting, if Jackson can develop along the same lines, he could be a very effective and well rounded player.
These player workouts will apparently be very important to figuring out who to take. Let’s hope they don’t have Byron there to tell them who NOT to draft……………..
Renato Afonso says
From the very few games I’ve seen from the top 5 prospects, I don’t get the Fox vs. Ball discussion. Assuming Fultz is unavailable at the #2, the discussion should be Ball (good passer, very high upside, no defense to add up to DAR and JC’s terrible defensive backcourt) vs Jackson (good athlete, a slightly lower upside than Ball and the much needed perimeter D). I’d probably even rank Tatum ahead of Fox…
Clay Bertrand says
Personally, I think that the Ball vs. Fox head to head is an overrated point of contention as to who is better. Some guys just are a nightmare matchup for other guys and seem to be their personal nemesis. If this is the case here, Ball and Fox will play each other 2-11 times in a given year.
Its not necessarily whose better head to head. Its whose better to lead the current Laker team. I feel like of the two players, Ball would be better in that capacity.
Although I like his game somewhat, I just don’t think Fox is the #2 player in this draft.
drrayeye says
Between now and the actual draft there are numerous possible scenarios that will work themselves out that go beyond the direct one on one player comparisons we’ve been making. We could surrender the #2 pick as part of a trade for a veteran player; we could trade down as part of a trade for a veteran player; we might acquire an additional pick–even the #3 pick–in trade for one of our veteran players–keeping the #2–getting Lonzo and Jackson.
Alternately, we might sign a free agent (like Jrue Holiday) that overlaps with the point guard position–leading us to sign Jackson. Or, we might sign a free agent like Jrue Holiday, draft a point guard, and then trade that point guard to the Pelicans to replace Holiday.
The possibilities are endless.
R says
That weird shot Ball has is a concern and it looks like he cant even shoot off the dribble vs. college competition (!) plus his FT % is painful to contemplate for a guy who supposedly will go to the line a lot. Its said his FT shooting is fixable fine then why isn’t it fixed already?
Pbz06 says
Umm, because he’s a 19 year old PROSPECT. Last time I checked, even guys like Lebron, Kidd, Wall, Leonard couldn’t shoot early on. It’s called development, people. So many fans judge and over analyze young guys like finished products.
The whole “doesn’t play defense” thing is a little overplayed too. The 1 and done players are such due to their upside, and frankly you get drafted that high based on your talents. Defense can be taught and is a team system. College D is a little misjudged by fans because they confuse hustle and scrappiness as defense. Fox ain’t coming to the NBA and shutting down anyone, especially with that frame. Good luck guarding Curry, Harden, L illard, McCollum etc (not good defenders either, lol, but you all would draft them and pair them with DAR).
R says
A PROSPECT, eh? Well, yeah one that may get drafted at #2 (to continue your emphasis on the obvious). A “prospect” who has exhibited reason for concern in two areas related to “shooting”.
Hope this helps explain the super complicated point I was trying to make, haha!
R says
Oh and you aren’t seriously comparing Ball to LBJ are you? LeBron was a consensus #1 coming out of HS.
Alan says
The Venn diagram shows shooting, passing and defense. Vegas money is probably on Ball going to the Lakers, time will tell.
Shooting: Clearly Ball can shoot from afar and around the hoop. Can he stop 20′ from the basket and hit a contested 2 in the pros? It seems he would rather pass to another player. From the free throw line he only shoots somewhere around 65%, that concerns me because many analysts equate free throws to shooting in general.
Passing: That is the thing the world is buzzing about. He has clearly demonstrated at UCLA he can do that very well, making everyone on the team better. He does have a tendency to turn the ball over, but if you handle the ball every play, that is sometimes the case.
Defense: To me this is a glaring deficiency. He doesn’t seem to care very much, just follows his man around the floor. If this was a weakness in college, it will become worse in the pros where players are bigger, stronger and faster.
Summary: The jury is out on his shooting. I hope he can demonstrate during summer league that he can knock down the three with regularity. That’s what distinguishes Hardin, Curry and others from average guards. That shot is what the NBA is about today. If he can draw people outside to guard him at the three point line, it will open passing lanes. If not, players will pull back and clog the lanes guarding against the pass. I seriously doubt he will be very good at defense, that is a shame because defense wins games in the playoffs which is the goal of the Lakers. He’s not alone, most of today’s players don’t move their feet and keep their hands up, a skill taught at the high school level.