Yes, this is a Lakers site but I am a basketball fan first and foremost. And today, the Finals begin and the tug-of-war for the championship will commence. To be clear, I have no horse in this race. Those who know me personally know that my wife has ties to the Warriors and, thus, is a fervent fan of theirs. So, if the Dubs win, my life is easier (happy wife, happy life, as the saying goes). But, beyond that, I really don’t care who wins. I just want a good, competitive series befitting of these two excellent teams.
I especially want this now, after these playoffs. Collectively, this postseason has been basura. The Warriors and Cavs have played, probably, a combined one or two compelling games in 25 total contests to this point. And while there have been some other good games (and a few excellent ones), I can’t think of one memorable series; one matchup that I will actually remember a year from now. I hope the Finals changes that. As basketball fans, I think we’ve earned it. After all, we were told this series was coming for the past 9 months. Now it’s here. Time to live up to the hype.
As for this series, I am on the fence as to who I think will actually win. I’m not big on predictions, though I do enjoy being right (as we all do).
I understand what the conventional wisdom is. The Warriors should win and do so handily. The most common prediction I’ve seen is that the Warriors will win in 5 games. This makes sense. Last year they were up 3-1 in the series before a Draymond suspension set the wheels in motion for the Cavs comeback. Add Kevin Durant to the mix and this version of the Warriors is even better. They’re also almost fully healthy (Iguodala is dealing with some knee issues that cost him time in the WCF) and are playing exquisite basketball. They are a juggernaut and it’s difficult to see any team beating them 4 times in 7 games.
That said, I cannot shake the sense that these Cavs are ready to test them and turn this into a competitive series. LeBron James is an all-time great. He’s the rare generational talent where just having him ups your odds at not just competing, but winning any game against any opponent. Add to him Kyrie (who is evolving into one of the better “big game/moment” players in the league) and Kevin Love (who is playing the best he has as a Cav) and the talent gap between this team and the Warriors isn’t so large.
I mean, I look at it this way: if picking a team from both rosters heading into this series, I would probably select them in this order: LeBron, Durant, Steph, Draymond, Love, Kyrie, Klay, Tristan Thompson. I know some might rank Klay higher, but he’s been struggling with his offense all playoffs and while his defense is strong (and super important) that cannot overshadow that he’s been well below his normal standards offensively. So, with that ranking above, the Cavs have 4 of the top 8 players in the series — including the best player. Believe me, I get that KD/Steph/Draymond in the 2-4 spots can (will?) overwhelm. After all, those guys are also top 5 players in the entire league, not just this series.
But, even when considering all that, the talent gap isn’t as large as I think it’s being made out to be. Especially with the way Love is playing and Kyrie’s penchant for scoring and shot-making in big moments.
From an X’s and O’s standpoint, the Warriors do have clear advantages in their favor. Their offense is, essentially, unstoppable and is primed to attack the Cavs’ specific weaknesses. Their off-ball screening and cutting actions are incredibly difficult to track without air-tight communication and their passing ability and general IQ leads to the type of quick ball movement from strong to weak side which has given the Cavs problems these playoffs. If the Cavs mishandle a switch or over-help, the Warriors are equipped to pounce.
Defensively, the Warriors are also the superior team due to their versatility and high level individual defenders. Draymond is the likely DPOY winner this year and with Durant, Thompson, Iguodala, and Livingston they have length, athleticism, and switchability in abundance. The Warriors can, and will, switch most every screen (on or off ball) and make the Cavs work in isolation both from the perimeter and via post-ups at the elbows and mid block where help will be lurking.
Still, though, this Cavs team has potential answers to these problems other Warriors opponents could not muster. LeBron and Kyrie are fantastic isolation scorers and shot creators for themselves and teammates. Love can create for himself in the post against smaller players. They also have smart screeners and an excess of shooting to capitalize on any help which has to be deployed due to an earlier switch. I expect the Cavs to use LeBron to screen Steph often, to either force a switch (ideal) or to get the Warriors to try to help and recover in ways they have not had to all playoffs. I also expect the Cavs to use LeBron and Love at the elbows a lot, putting the defense into those hard choice situations where helping is so enticing they can get caught ball watching or put into rotations against lineups with multiple good shooters.
In other words, I don’t look at the Cavs like I do the other opponents the Warriors have had to face these playoffs. In fact, I don’t look at the Cavs as a normal opponent at all. They have LeBron and as specific roster to attack the (relative) weak links of the Warriors defense. They will target Steph with screens and attack him in switches. They will target JaVale in the P&R. They will pick on Ian Clark. They will make David West defend the rim and make rotations to the arc to contest threes. For all I know, none of this will matter or all of these guys will prove capable. The Warriors are so good, it really wouldn’t surprise me.
But I cannot fully escape the feeling that some of these things won’t just go smoothly for Golden State. That even if their stars have it going, some of their role players will show enough cracks to disrupt rotations and plant some seeds of doubt. That some of these games will be close and, with that, LeBron/Kyrie/Love will be as up to the challenge as Steph/KD/Draymond/Klay will be. And that, ultimately, the former will be able to make some winning plays for their team.
This isn’t to say the Warriors won’t win. Even a competitive series can only go 5 games. I remember the 2009 Finals clearly. The Lakers won in 5, but several of those games were down to the wire. Golden State could end up just like those Lakers, winning a close series in a number of games which implies differently.
But, for some reason, I just don’t see that happening. I envision a series going 6 or 7 games. And, honestly, I could even see the Cavs winning it all. I’m not going to say that will happen, but if you were to ask me which I thought was more likely: a Warriors win in a walk or a Cavs win in a grueling 7 game series, I’d probably say the Cavs winning makes more sense to me.
In the end, though, maybe that’s just me projecting what I said I wanted at the top – a competitive series. After all, we’re due for one, right?
Alan says
LeBron is in a class by himself, currently the best player in the NBA. Unfortunately, he can’t beat the Warriors by himself. The Warriors have a defense that can shut down anyone, especially when they play the same team on consecutive nights.
The Cavs showed they were mortal against Boston. If both teams play to the best of their ability, I expect the Warriors to win the series going away. The addition of Kevin Durant puts the team over the top, plus they are playing for injured Coach Kerr…”win one for the Gipper…”
There is a good chance Draymond Green will want to make up for his poor judgement in last year’s series, expect he or Durant to be be MVP candidates. I hope this is a great series.
Regarding Lakers, newspapers are reporting the team might have doubts about drafting Ball, his workout will have a large bearing on their decision? Looking forward to the draft in a couple of weeks, and trades that are sure to follow.
CraigW. says
The two most dominant players in NBA history were Wilt and Lebron. Even Wilt couldn’t win it all by himself and only won one championship competing with the Bill Russell all-stars.
That is why – IMO – the GOAT tag simply doesn’t mean very much. Really dominant players will get almost any team into the playoffs, but then you must have talent, chemistry, and some kind of system (coaching) to win it all.
Adam (@adamv37) says
I hope you’re just talking about physically dominant players. Even then, a guy named Shaquille O’neal might have something to say.
CraigW. says
No, really I took Shaq into account. Shaq was perhaps the most agile 7’er in history, but athletically both Wilt and Lebron were simply much better on both sides of the ball. Wilt was a track-and-field all-American high jumper (a-la Jim Brown being a lacross all-American) and Lebron is simply Lebron – and we get to watch him every year.
It is always unfair when fans can’t see a player actually play. Wilt simply did anything he wanted to on the court and Lebron is the closest to this in today’s game. Shaq was a fantastic talent, but he simply enjoyed life too much to concentrate on every game. All I will say is that Shaq could have been in the category with Wilt and Lebron, but he chose not to.
Fern says
I wonder where you leave that #23 scrub that used to play for the Bulls. Too bad he wasn’t dominant…
Anonymous says
I don’t think LeBron is in a class by himself anymore. 3-4 years ago yes. Not now and not even close TBH.
That said, while he isn’t the best player in the league through 82 games, he most CERTAINLY can be the best player in the condensed season that is the NBA playoffs. The man is simply a genius on the court who has mastered the invite ins and outs of how to win games in the playoffs. And his guys believe in him. That’s what will make this series interesting.
Fern says
I wouldn’t even venture a guess. I would think GS is the favorite but Cleveland has Kevin Love finally contributing in a big way. That didnt happen the last two post seasons. He is an x factor. If he keeps playing like he did against the Celts it would be very tough to beat the Cavs. But boyyy GS has some real firepower too.
teamn says
I agree too many people are calling the Warriors in 4 or 5 games. That seems suspect to me. Probably more like 6. If it goes 7, then look out for the Cavs.
R says
Warriors win the rubber match. They could be hungrier than Cavs & KD may have a chip on his shoulder – deservedly so.
Will say that LBJ knocked my socks off last year with his crunch time block on Iggy.
Clay Bertrand says
I just hope everyone stays relatively healthy for this series. Too often we see injuries play a bigger role in a series than any player does. The Clippers lose a key guy EVERY year in the playoffs…..the Spurs were totally ravaged this year. Here’s hoping at least both teams are at Full Strength.
I think this is a 6-7 game series and I think Cleveland’s Defense is the wild card but I give the Ws the edge. They are just deeper and have more overall talent. If Cleveland can somehow bewitch a couple of the Ws shooters though and keep them slumping for a few days, the Cavs can roll.
I’d like to see the Cavs prevail but its a pretty tall order. They have a much smaller margin for error IMO than do the Ws.
Bingo Cimo says
Why would any Lakers fan ever root for the Cavs and their owner Dan Gilbutt – CP3 Trade veto came after his tantrum. From that point on the Cavs may as well be the Celtics.
Adam (@adamv37) says
I can’t wait for these Finals to be over. I hate the LeBron being compared to Jordan narrative. Like he’s passed Magic, Bird, Kobe, Shaq and Russell already? The same guy who has a losing record in the Finals? As for the Warriors, I love watching them play and I have them winning the series easily, but I can’t stand their fans. As a Laker fan living in the Bay Area, the past 3 years has been miserable. Let’s get the 2017-18 season started already!
Anonymous says
I’m a laker fan who moved to the bay recently, and I couldn’t agree more with what you’re saying. Sick of the LBJ narrative, and of the Warriors fan base. I’ve been rooting against this matchup for the past two years. Didn’t want to see the rematch, let alone the rematch of the rematch. However, if I have to pick one, I’d rather GS takes it. They’re a west coast team, and it would help to quell the Lebron sycophants.
81Witness says
Exactly. I live in Sacramento. Where are all the throw back jerseys to the TMC era? Nowhere to be found. It’s like the Warriors were an expansion team from 2010.
The fanbase are a bunch of bandwagonners. It disgusts me. As an avid Lakers and Rams fan, I have no problem supporting my team in losing seasons.
drrayeye says
I’m actually surprisingly indifferent. I expect the warriors to win, but both teams can really play lousy basketball from time to time, so I don’t expect a sweep. Thinking more about the draft and trades . . .
Tar Baby says
I don’t know….if Harrison Barnes can hit the side of a barn GS wins in 6 last year. Now they have KD.
It won’t be a blow out, but I just don’t see them losing this series.
ED says
I hope it doesn`t turn on a key injury or suspension. It doesn`t take much when two teams are evenly matched in a limited series.
KevTheBold says
There is no excuse for the Warriors not to take this. They should have won it last year without Durant.
I usually side with the west side, but this year I’m rooting for the east.
Alex Halikias says
Tonight was the Cavs’ Week After Memorial Day Massacre.
CraigW. says
The question is whether the Cavs’ can change their style to be more effective against the Warriors. The Lakers didn’t change their stripes; only painted them on their body more clearly and upped their play. The problem is that that won’t be what the Cav’s need to do to beat the Warriors.
Alexander says
I think you’re spot on…
This could look like the 2001 Lakers run. The other team’s superstar has one epic game, series goes 4-1.
TempleOfJamesWorthy says
I note with some amusement that Mike Brown, whose hiring by the Lakers was often cited as evidence of the incompetence of the Jim Buss/Kupchak management team, seems to be able to coach a championship-level team just fine.
Funny how talented athletic players who are willing to execute within a system make coaches look good. Funny how past-their-prime ball-hogging prima donnas (note: this description applies to multiple members of the 2012-2013 Lakers) make coaches (and the management who hired the coaches) look bad.
RR says
As the KBros and so many others have said: the NBA is a talent league. Some people make too big of a deal out of coaching; others make too big of a deal out of “ball-hogging.”
It is also worth remembering that the Lakers went 41-25 and won a playoff series under Mike Brown. There was luck involved: Bynum stayed healthy and the team beat their PYTH by five games, but still, results are results.
TempleOfJamesWorthy says
I may have the year wrong. I’m referring to the Kobe/Gasol/Howard Lakers who collectively quit on Mike Brown, then won five straight games for interim coach Bernie Bickerstaff before the Lakers hired D’Antoni.
Most people blamed Brown for that season’s 0-fee start when in fact his players quit on him.
Tar Baby says
In all fairness, a lot of those critics were drinking the Phil Jackson kool aid…Mike Brown just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
West Coast Ram says
As a Lakers fan I love watching GSW play. It is the way basketball was meant to be played. Moving players and basketball, I was tired of the ISO game years ago. I’m sure the GSW fan base can be tiring but the team was so bad for so long that I don’t even mind them getting some time in the sun.
Warriors in 5, with the games not really in doubt.
R says
Ram, you have an excellent point about the Warriors being so bad for so long. Top to bottom terrible, really.
I’m fine with their excellence, even as a long time Bay Area resident and even longer time Lakers fan. If nothing else, they serve as a stellar example of a team turn around. The Warriors at their worse were IMO far worse off than the Lakers are now.
Alexander says
Hey R, I’m also in the Bay Area, in SF. Remember taking my son to GSW games and buying tickets there at discount to face value(!) It’s a special time for us now, having an exciting young Lakers team to root for while also watching the local team being one of the GOAT’s.
The long term recipe for NBA team greatness seems simple enough: start with good owners, add Jerry West, wait two years.
R says
Alexander, will that formula work for the Clippers? :0)
LT Mitchell says
The comparison between LeBron and Durant reminds me of the Emmit Smith and Barry Sanders debate. Emmit has all the stats, records and rings…but imo, Barry was the better running back. Emmit was just fortunate to be on a great team with an incredible offensive line. Sanders on those cowboys teams would have done some serious damage.
I feel the same way with Durant. Without a high usage PG that the ball filtered through, Durant would have been a triple double threat every night. We saw his potential stat wise the past few years when Westbrook was injured. Durant also never had the luxury, like LeBron, of playing in the East, with a historically easy path to the finals year after year….or being on any superteams until now.
Unlike last year’s finals, Iguadala is not playing on one leg, Curry is 100%, GS did not lose their starting center, Draymond has not been suspended…..oh and replace GS’s biggest liability, Barnes, with Durant? This series is a sweep folks. The best player on the court plays for GS.
Alan says
Barring injury, the Warriors have this series, “in the fridge, the milk is cold, butter’s getting hard…”, per Chick. Now we look closely at the team the Lakers must reinvent themselves to beat. The GSW!
Defense, defense, defense is the place to start. From there, GSW have great passers, cutters, shooters and rebounders. I can see why Magic feels Ingram might be the only untouchable. All the young player, ” might be good someday…”, at the moment, they play like college Juniors. I’m not a big supporter of the one and done players and would certainly encourage the NBA to look at some D League participation for the youngsters. There are very few LeBron or Kobe ballplayers out there.
Nance and Nwaba demonstrated they might be able to work hard and improve their defense, the rest, I’m going to have to reserve judgement.
What to do? Play hard this season and figure out a way to clear up Moz & Deng contracts. Think long and hard about free agent role-players and or starters that can a least come off the bench, defend and shoot. Clarkson can’t do both, trade him while there is value, try him to Moz or Deng and take next step.
By the end of the season, all players will be fully evaluated, at that point the team will know about Paul George and other players like Westbrook, Butler etc etc. Hire at least two starters from the list and mix them on to a team of young players who are left, start the next year with 50% youth and veteran players and see what transpires.
Maybe GSW comes back in skills a little bit and the Lakers move forward a little bit and we can get a better idea if the “plan” is actually working?
Enough brainstorming for tonight, your thoughts on how Lakers catch GSW? ?
Anonymous says
For once I might agree with you but I would rank Kyrie before Draymond. But this is on Love. His offense and rebounding has to be better than Draymond’s overall game in this series. LeBron & Irving = Durant & Curry so thats a wash so now we look at the next level of players. If Love & Smith –> Green & Klay then the Cavs can win this series. My prediction is the winner of game 5 wins this series…going to be fun to see who that is going to be!
CraigW. says
Not if defense has any value whatsoever!
Alan says
Draymond Green”s first job on offense is to distribute the ball to cutters from the free throw line. Once that is done, he heads to the top of the key in the event a wide open shot is there to be had. From there he’s back on defense only guarding players down low.
It’s defense first, push the ball second, find the cutter for easy baskets third. The Cav’s play a lot of one on one basketball, the clock winds down leaving tough shots. That works for some opponents, not the Warriors. KD, Clay, several others are not going to let players like Love have easy shots, leaving him to be a rebounder. Kyrie will not be able to help, leaving the heavy lifting to LeBron, again.
Lakers need to watch closely, it’s a recipe for success. Can Ball, Russell, Deng, Mozgov, or anyone on the Lakers shut anyone down? If they are unable to defend after being in the league three plus years, my feeling is they are not getting it. Move feet and hold up hands should not be to much to ask on defense? Leonard went out for Spurs and the team continued to play well. The guard (Thomas) for Boston went out, the defense got better and the team was competitive without heroics.
Lakers, it’s defense first, offense second. Thanks for indulging me ??
Busboys4me says
The Lakers need defense but they will draft Ball because his talents are too many to ignore. It’s backwards but it can work if they can add someone like a Dion Waters to hide his defensive weaknesses.
Busboys4me says
The Lakers really need another (one period) defensive stopper. We will draft Ball but Jackson is so intriguing.
Anonymous says
You take Lonzo because he makes you better. And he contributes without having to score. I dont think many of you saw him enough this year. There is nothing wrong with his defense. Shut down Fultz head to head both times. Calipari knew Lonzo was banged up and went at him … Good coaching if anything.
Hey Cleveland! Slow down the pace and post LeBron or move him to the high post. Got to limit GS possessions and put pressure on their D. Also, stop the advancement of the ball extend that D! You cannot run with GS got to make them execute in the half court and make the clock long on them every possesion.