All-star caliber big man.
One can argue how accurate that is — Lopez has made one All-Star game in his 9 year career — but that was how Rob Pelinka described Brook Lopez when explaining some of the reasons the Lakers decided to part with D’Angelo Russell as a means to unload Timofey Mozgov’s bloated salary in order to acquire the Brooklyn big man.
It’s hard to know if the Lakers still would have done this trade if a player of Lopez’s quality wasn’t coming back in return (my guess: it would have), but the fact the Lakers are getting such a good player back is meaningful, even if it doesn’t fully erase the sting of losing a young player of Russell’s caliber. Regardless of how much a sect of fans don’t like this deal, it’s done. Lopez is the Lakers’ starting center next year. So, what do they have in him?
Lopez toiled away on the league’s worst team last season, so it might be easy to dismiss his quality and impact on the game. Lopez, though, has long been one of the league’s better scoring bigs and that continued last season. In just under 30 minutes a game last year, Lopez scored 20.5 points while hitting 53.6% of his 2-point shots on 34.6% of his shots from behind the arc. That accuracy from distance wasn’t really a fluke, either. He took over 5 attempts a game and showed some real ability on the left side of the floor and the right corner:
This long range shooting was an entirely new dimension to Lopez’s game last season. As you can see from the chart, he took 387 attempts from distance in 2016-17 after only taking 31 total 3’s in the first 8 years of his career combined. This shooting ability, specifically from their starting C, should help the Lakers in a variety of ways.
First, it will give Lonzo Ball (and every other ball handler) a pick and pop partner who draws big defenders out of the paint. Lopez’s shooting will open up driving lanes all over the floor, but especially out of P&R situations where it will be difficult for teams to play the bracket coverage of chase and drop which has the screeners big man play well below the screen to contain the dribble while the ball handler’s man fights over the top of picks. Teams will have to decide how to either hedge and recover, switch outright, or send help from the wing to close out on Lopez. These simply haven’t been choices defenses have had to make against Lakers teams running the P&R with its previous stable of bigs.
Second, Lopez being able to effectively space to either corner creates an outlet in isolations or pick and rolls run with the PF as the screener. In other words, as much as this might help Ball, the other player who should benefit greatly from playing with Lopez is Julius Randle. Be it via isolation or when operating as the roll man in the P&R, Randle often had to manage a crowded lane with a second big man lurking to contest his shots. With Lopez spacing to the opposite corner, Randle should see more freedom on his drives and his rolls to the front of the rim. And if the help still comes, Lopez offers the type of release valve who will reward that kick out pass.
Beyond the shooting skill and subsequent spacing, Lopez can also be a pure bucket getter as a primary scoring option in isolation. Lopez posted a 29.2 usage rate last season as a fulcrum of the Nets offense. He’s effective as a pure post up player 18 feet and in, offering a nice turn and face game when pushed out to the edge of that range and a nice back to the basket game when establishing the deep post. Lopez shot 52.3% on post ups this past year, 3rd among players who shot out of post ups at least 4 times a game. When the shot clock is at 10 seconds, you can get him the ball and he can create a viable shot for himself. This has value even if it’s not the way the Lakers want to play most possessions.
Of course, even with all these positives, Lopez does have his flaws. He’s not the most fleet of foot big man, hampering him in transition and, more importantly, on defense. He offers next to no switchability defensively and will get taken advantage of in space by most NBA wings with any sort of capable off-the-dribble arsenal. When teams go small, he can be schemed off the court as he’s not going to get on his horse to contest shots beyond the arc nor is he going to prove capable of changing ends in transition and marking quicker players who can rim run or stay wide by running to the corner.
Lopez can protect the rim defensively — he averaged 1.7 blocks a game and when he was the primary defender on a shot players only shot 47% against him. Further, the Nets were better defensively with Lopez on the floor than with him off — though, to be clear, they were a bad defensive team either way. Ultimately, though, Lopez’s deficiencies on this end will be difficult to manage and his pairing with Randle can get ugly even if, in theory, Lopez has some tools to help cover up for him in similar ways many (including me) hoped Mozgov would this past year.
He’s also not a very good rebounder, as witnessed by his poor raw numbers — he only averaged 5.4 rebounds a game, with only 3.8 of those coming on the defensive glass. His defensive rebound rate was only 13.3 last season, which compares more favorably to a perimeter player than it does to a big man (for comparison’s sake, Jose Calderon’s was 13.2 for the Lakers last year). Even if you want to argue that playing with Julius Randle will help mitigate some of these rebounding woes, I think you still need better work on the glass than what Lopez has shown he’s able to provide the last few seasons.
Even when accounting for the ways I think this could go poorly, I still think Lopez will help the team overall. His offensive skills are that much of a positive, he fills a key hole as a primary scoring option in the half court, and he complements some of the team’s key contributors in ways that the holdover Centers simply can’t. The Nets were a better team with him on the floor both offensively and defensively next year and, in theory, he can do similar work for the Lakers next year. Yes, this team will have to live with his issues defensively and on the glass, but the hope is that others can help cover up for his weaknesses while he does the same for theirs. That’s probably asking for too much, but that’s why I said hope.
Lastly, and I won’t dwell on this too much, even though I like Lopez and believe him to be a reasonably good fit, it cannot be overstated that he’s only a 1-year stopgap. The team’s front office spoke openly about wanting to bring in two max level free agents next summer and the only reason that’s possible is Lopez’s contract comes off the books next July. If he’s back on the roster next season at any contract besides the “room exception”, the Magic and Pelinka have failed to add the players they really wanted to. That’s not a knock on Lopez, it’s simply stating the truth.
So, enjoy Lopez for what he is this upcoming year: a really good offensive player who can help the team in a variety of ways for a season management hopes is a transition year into a new era of Lakers success. He’ll get buckets, block some shots, and be a good veteran presence in the locker room. He’s been “the man” before and can moonlight in that role again this season. I won’t pretend to like the nature of the deal that brought him to the team, but I can appreciate him still being a darn good player and believe he’ll be helpful.
Adam says
I don’t like it either, but it was the results of the sins of the fathers so to speak, it a hard pill to swallow I guess
Joshua says
I don’t really like the trade because I felt we departed with DAR at a time when his value was IMO a bit too low, but I think some people have been really unfair in their negative portrayal of it (for example, a podcast that could be abbreviated as lol :P).
At the end of the day, every trade means you have to give up something in order to gain something. The evaluation of this trade hinges on how good DAR will be in his prime. Nobody can be sure about that, but at the same time people will have their opinions (that obviously includes the people who have been around him almost every day for the last two years). It’s still possible that he might turn into a superstar, but the GMs (and their scouting departments) who were offered DAR for a lottery pick apparently didn’t think so.
Pete’s careful projection of him making the all-star team one day (which may or may not come true but is kind of reasonable) puts him in roughly the same territory as Lopez. They are both highly gifted offensive players with great length for their positions but slow feet. Of course they don’t play the same position, each of them comes with particular advantages and disadvantages.
They’re also on different timelines. DAR is closer to the other core players. Lopez is closer to George (they are two years apart), who everybody wants to be on the team. On top of that we don’t have to re-sign him if we can get someone better or want to preserve cap space. As Darius points out, it’s not like this is totally worthless. I wouldn’t even necessarily see it as a failure if we do end up re-signing him (he’s a local kid, too). It depends on the context.
Thiefneck says
Why doesn’t anyone talk about possibility of trying to sign Hayward lakers have a sg slot Open
Slappy says
“I won’t pretend to like the nature of the deal that brought him to the team…”
.410/.447/.351/.507/.478
.405/.447/.352/.518/.483
And so the tiniest of progressions. Is otherwise down .60 from his one and done 3P% at The OSU, and his vast improvement is .001. Now read what you yourself wrote re Lopez, 31 total 3’s in the first 8 years of his career combined, and he put up. 346 over 387 attempts (after going 2-14 and 1-10 the two seasons prior).
Lastly, for other numbers
PnR ballhandler: .76 PPP, 41st percentile
Transition: .93 PPP, 21st percentile
3P%: .352, with league average of .358
And that’s why he’s gone. Thank Deity for small miracles, with the small miracle being that instead of a box of rocks in return, they got Lopez, a pick, and unloaded one of the worst moments of the prior regime.
Tar Baby says
You do realize that the Lakers won’t re-sign Lopez unless he inexplicably decides to take a HUGE pay cut?
Lakers17 says
I agree. Lopez is NOT in the Lakers future plans. If he were, I would be incredibly sad. If he were worth any value whatsoever, he could have won at least 30 games for the Nets just on his own.
Anonymous says
Unless we sign two max deals and then using his Bird rights sign him, to a smaller but still good contract, and pay the luxury tax.
Barath Sundar says
He will have a large Cap hold that will prevent that. Cap hold will be released when you waive rights or sign the giy
Basically, if you are signing him to a smaller salary, you will be better off doing that first, before other free agents
If you are signing him to a much larger salary, you can do so with bird rights..
drrayeye says
Thanks for your initial analysis of Brook Lopez.
The Lakers have already replaced two of our starting five from last year–and it’s only June. I’m very excited that one of them is Brook Lopez. I expect him to work very well in tandem with Ivica Zubac–with Black/Nance coming in for small ball (if they’re still here). I wouldn’t count on Randle being here too much longer, but I’d expect Brook to adapt constructively to working with Julius and any of the others at the PF or SF position–currently Deng, Nance, Kuzma, Brewer, or Ingram (or anyone else we might trade for). Any player who can completely transform himself into a 3 point shooter in one year can make necessary adjustments.
So far, I’m very pleased with what the Lakers have done this summer, and hope that they remain cautious and pragmatic.
Nils says
Darius. First time poster here. I been following your site from you took over and love it.
Mr. Lopez is a nice one year addition but I am more concerned with the trade itself – like you seem to be- even though a generel concensus among basketball commentatiors seems to be emerging that it was a good and necessary trade made by the new front office. Mr. Johnsons comments about how he needed a leader and, therefore, Russel had to go even though he is a tremendous talent makes no sense to me. I cannot see the connection between the two. Is Russels leadership abilities the only reason he was on the team? Can the Lakers only have one leader? For instance, they could have told him that they needed him to be a scorer from the 2 guard position and see if that worked out. If not, a similar trade could probably have been made later.
I know there were other reasons, eg. maturity issues, but still in my experience bad arguments are usually an indication that something is not as well executed as it is made out to be. And that worries me because I fear that the front office now have put themselves in a position where improving through trades will be more difficult. Selling low to begin with shows other front offices that Lakers management is impatient and does not believe in their own draft picks. Hope I am wrong.
CraigW. says
For some posters the feeling was that DLO ‘s value was not going to materially increase next year, his maturity was questioned, and he showed some resistance to direct criticism. With this in mind, when it came to being able to trade Mozgov’s contract, Russell was a reasonable asset to include to get the deal done. With all of that we also got back a one-year rental of a decent starting center and a draft pick.
Trying to pick apart the individual components of the trade and evaluate them does not do justice to the entire trade. Russell’s leaving was not a decision made in a vacuum, as it would be if we waived him.
Tar Baby says
But that’s the problem – the only reason Russell’s value is low is because he was benched last season and the Lakers have been leaking stories about his maturity, or lack thereof.
Tar Baby says
They’re getting an expiring contract that they can move after July 1…that’s IT.
I mean really – it ain’t rocket science.
Serik says
It’s amazing how Lopez is totally forgotten as being a part of the trade by some fans and analysts. The guy is 20 PER player, when did we have those the last time? As was noted higher, the fact that he has added a 3pt shot to his game in his 9th (or whatever it is) year of his career tells you that his game can still grow and adapt. Can he be a part of our future? Why not, bigs age better than guards.
david h says
Darius: having a veteran center who’s career free throw shooting hovers around 80 % is going to help more than hinder the progression of laker’s young core. I too think he will bring a steadfast influence to the laker’s next season. He also brings to the lakers an ingredient we haven’t seen in recent years; a center.
Thanks Darius for your fine assessments of a young man still in his nba basketball prime.
Go lakers
CactusDave says
Seriously Darius, are you going to get over this trade sometime soon?
I still have a longtime Laker friend who reminds me every time I talk about the 1980 teams that trading Norm Nixon for Byron Scott and Swen Nater was a bad move by the Lakers despite everything that unfolded afterwards. It’s just silly.
I get that you’re probably in the grieving stage and since its the offseason, you’re entitled. But get over it by October with the start of the season. We don’t need a downer to remind us every time the team goes through a difficult patch that all of it might’ve been avoided had this trade not been culminated.
Darius Soriano says
Haha. I’m pretty sure I’ll write what I want since it’s my site and you’ll either read it or not. Either way works for me. Thanks.
Sean says
Dude, get over yourself already. Everyone has an opinon on something and just because you have your own site, it certainly doesn’t validate your opinion more so anyone else’s. Are you serious with that? You and that other clown on the Lakers’ site are nothing more than some scared fools, always talking about this draft pick and every other draft pick that the Lakers have. Dude, I wouldn’t even trust you to put my little cousin’s Lego Set together or even park his Big Wheel in the garage. What are you an ‘expert’ in because it sure as hell isn’t in basketball? Lmao. The fuckery is real up in here, y’all! ???
Darius Soriano says
LMAO. Thanks for taking the time to visit my site and for taking the time to comment. Have a good rest of your day.
Lakers17 says
Sean,
If you don’t like the site, what are you doing reading and commenting?
I think this is one of the best Lakers fan sites on the internet.
The content in this site is quoted on many other sites, and rarely in the national media.
So you have zero idea what you’re talking about.
Idiot!
KevTheBold says
Just the kind of posts those who enjoy a cerebral atmosphere, come here to avoid.
I’m surprised that Darius allowed that graffiti in here, but it just goes to demonstrate how fair he is.
JeffT says
Sean, your comments represent exactly why I read this site over most others.
Tar Baby says
What friends thought trading a redundant point guard (Nixon) for the 4th overall pick (Scott) was bad???
Samsinister says
Ha! I’m not Cactus Dave’s “friend”, but I was a huge Nixon fan and hated to see him go. (Recent 30 for 30 dredged that back up for me!) That Scott guy worked out alright, though, gotta admit…
Kareeme says
I heard on the Real GM podcast (I think) that Lopez is likely to move before the trade deadline for picks or a longer term salary (or both). I’ve been trying to think of teams that might fit the description, and I can think maybe Detroit. Thoughts?
Mid-Wilshire says
I think that one of the real beneficiaries of this trade could be Iviza Zubac. Something tells me that Zu may not be quite ready to be an NBA starter. The acquiring of Brook Lopez (who is more than a decent player) will buy Iviza time to develop. Zubac should use this season to really develop his game and build up his body.
In another year or two, Zubac should be ready to take over. All of this should be good for him.
Rob says
Why don’t these big, slow centers see the handwriting on the wall, slim down, run, and get faster and quicker. I remember when Golden State won their championship in 1975 with Rick Barry, et al, that their centers were Clifford Ray and George Johnson, and both consistently ran the floor like a guard. Same for Bill Walton and the ’77 Blazers. 7-footers don’t have to be ponderously slow. Lopez has a summer to work-out to change his body and bring it into line with the current NBA game. A running center with the ability to knock down 3-pointers would be a pretty devastating weapon.
A Horse With No Name says
Rob: Good points on centers needing to develop the type of conditioning needed to be relevant in today’s space and pace game. (Apparently Demarcus Cousins has lost a ton of weight and has been working with the trainer Julius has been using.) There’s a real limit on improving quickness, but learning to run hard end to end is mainly a function of being light enough, and developing your wind. That’s what the lakers told baby Zu, and he’s been working very hard to become a capable rim running big. Now we have Bryant, who is already apparently in great shape and was running like a guard in his workout. Plus, he’s already has an excellent jumper from the college three line. (This is a very under rated pick, and again, must be viewed as part of the value of the deal with the Nets–as Craig points out above.) As far as Lopez, he’s a guy who’s struggled with foot injuries so he has to be careful with his running load. Probably should use the low-gravity treadmill to improve.
Goofcat says
I lik many believe we sold low on DLo, but value is what the market will pay. And if non of the other 29 GM’s thought he was worth a lottery pick this year, that is his value. Going to the Nets will hurt him. Immature player in an unprofessional directionless team don’t get better.
Lopez is as soild as a stretch 5 as there is, I’m actually hoping he is not a one year rental. Pair him next to George and another high level vet and our young guys with another year under them, we got a playoff team.
Ric says
Thanks for the write-up Darius. I’d be interested in a deeper dive into the Nets’ team rebounding percentages when Lopez is on the floor. I was originally in your camp with regards to being disappointed with Lopez’s rebounding, but from some initial research, it seems like he eschews chasing rebounds in order to block out his man (usually the biggest guy on the floor). I don’t have the data to back that up, but if the numbers do support it, I could see that allowing guys like Ju, BI, and Lonzo to snatch rebounds off the glass quickly without fighting an extra big man and jump-starting the break.
Also, I think Lopez’s inability to play against small-ball lineups is kind of a blessing in disguise for the Lakers. It allows us to see Nance and Julius play together more, something I’ve always wanted Luke to experiment with to see if it’s feasible on a somewhat long-term basis.
Darius Soriano says
The Nets were a better rebounding team with Lopez on the floor than when he was on the bench:
Lopez on: DReb % 77.5, Overall Reb % 49.0
Lopez off: DReb % 74.3, Overall Reb % 47.2
So, the argument could be made Lopez helps their rebounding. The context here, though: the Nets were the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league last year. Even if you took Lopez’s numbers and forecasted them out to the rest of the league, they’d be in the bottom 10 in the league in overall rebound % (22nd overall).
So, even if you want to argue Lopez made them better, the Nets were still bad overall which I think Lopez contributed to with his own poor numbers. How much is the ultimate question and I don’t think you can decipher that with the numbers.
Anonymous says
Looking at other perimeter bigs, Lopez is still one of the worst rebounders. Cousins, Ibaka, Myles Turner, Townes, Marc Gasol, Aldridge… you get the point. That said, he is the highest scoring perimeter big outside of Cousins and Townes. Definite trade off.
ED says
I have questions about Lopez on the defensive end including RB. On offensive he`s a plus and working with Lonzo should produce some open looks and spacing which will really help the offense.
Clevree says
All great points guys, but maybe his rebounding is so low because of one of the knocks about him Darius wrote in his piece? If he is as slow and unable to contain perimeter players as Darius has mentioned (and he is with all due respect), then you can best believe that between teams playing small ball (to attack him offensively and cover him on the perimeter defensively) and putting him in PNR schemes (to allow their perimeter players to attack him or simply pull him away from the rim) its quite possible that it was the opposition that kept him from being able to get to the ball? With more athletic personnel on the floor with him, maybe the Lakers can find a scheme to keep him near the rim? As for DLo, his interest in being the face of the franchise seemed to waver. They made him the leader and it looked to me as if he accepted the title but not the role. He took nights off and didn’t seem to make his teammates better. I loved the pick when they drafted him and I think he is a good player, but based on an overall analysis of the young core, it’s because he had so much potential that he was the choice in the trade. I doubt it was because they didn’t believe he’d be a star that he was in the trade. It was because of his tremendous potential to be a star that he was involved so they could unload that horrible Mozgov deal. IMO it was a great trade for now and it will be an awesome trade if the rumored returns (PG13, LeBron) come to fruition. They are proven veterans and already “stars” that have reached a height that DLo’s potential may not project to reach.
rasputinslovechild says
Good trade. I like Lopez.
Alan says
If Lopez can stay healthy, he’s twice the center Mozgov is because he can shoot. How nice is that? I’m looking forward to watching him mentor Zubac and the newly drafted center. I understand he has a terrific clubhouse presence which is really nice, thank goodness the team is rid of the negativity following the aloof Russell around.
Vasheed says
I think Lopez is an improvement over Mozgov. However, I am concerned there won’t be minutes for Zubac, Luke will start Lopez in deference but he likes to play a lot of small ball. An ideal center for Luke would be a guy like Cauley-Stein or Noel (to lesser extent). A center who is highly mobile but large enough to still be a defensive presence. Zubac got lighter to run up and down the court last year. I love Zubac’s game so I would like to see Zubac’s game and Luke’s ideal of a center converge as much as possible.