As we outlined in our free agency primer and our podcast on potential plans once July 1st hits, the Lakers’ plan to chase stars in the summer of 2018 impacts what they can do in free agency this summer. When you need every spare penny to sign two max salary players a year from now, whatever you spend now needs to be carefully counted for then.
Even if this wasn’t simple math, the front office came out and told us as much on Thursday. Mark Medina has the intel at the OC Register:
“We’ll be very strategic to keep the cap space in 2018,” Pelinka said after the draft. “We’ll be very sacred about that. We worked very hard to get into that position. So we’ll be smart in free agency.”
To be smart in free agency, the Lakers also have set their eyes on two realities. The Lakers are not expecting to acquire George from the Indiana Pacers amid their insistence on keeping Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram. With their hopes set on George becoming available next summer, the Lakers want to pursue players who fit specific criteria that would accelerate the young roster’s development…
…But at what cost? The Lakers want to minimize multi-year contracts, but they are open to spending a bit more as a way to compensate for a one-year deal. As much as they want to attract elite stars again in 2018, the Lakers are also intent on acquiring veterans who will have a positive influence on their young roster.
First, let’s talk Medina’s last point about limiting 1-year contracts. As we’ve discussed plenty, this is to be expected.
The Lakers simply do not have the financial flexibility on their roster to add salary which runs through the summer of 2018 without having to cut that same money (and more) to open up the space needed to chase the stars they covet. Taking this approach will impact their negotiations and reduce the number of viable targets they can sign, which many in the local media are taking to mean the team simply will not be very active when the bidding opens at midnight eastern July 1st.
Expecting a nice, quiet weekend on the free agency front for the Lakers. Nice of them to ease me into the world of NBA free agency.
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) June 29, 2017
As for the team not expecting to trade for George, I read this a bit differently.
First, I do believe the Lakers are not willing to include Ingram or Ball in any deal while knowing that’s pretty much the entry point to serious conversations with the Pacers. Multiple reports have the Pacers asking for greater returns than the ones received in trades for DeMarcus Cousins, Jimmy Butler, and Chris Paul, so how likely is it they’ll make a trade with the Lakers that doesn’t include (at least) one of Ingram or Ball? Regardless of how realistic that is for the Pacers, if that’s the price, the Lakers are smart to say what they are.
There is also a different angle here. Zach Lowe spelled out part of the Lakers’ dilemma with George (and something I touched on too) in his column leading up to free agency:
Maybe Indiana is playing this perfectly, and L.A. will yield on Ingram if they sense Boston or Cleveland might pounce. Maybe the Lakers have full confidence that George and Superstar X are coming in a year, a double dip that would have almost certainly required jettisoning Russell (along with Randle and Clarkson) anyway.
If they’re wrong, the Lakers are engaged in a delicate dance. Without George, they will be bad again, with little to sell beyond a vague and fading allure. With George in exchange for Randle and Clarkson, they would still top out as mediocre.
Let me pivot, for a moment. In a perfect world, I believe the Lakers would like to move Clarkson, some non-guaranteed salary (Tarik Black), and a future pick (or more) in a trade for George. My reasons for this are 3 fold:
1. Randle still has value to the Lakers on a roster with George and, in the long term, I think the team still believes in him as a potential key contributor. Keeping him into his second contract would take some cap maneuvering with Luol Deng’s contract, which will be difficult, but I think they’d like the chance to try. This is a big year for Randle and, my sense is even if the team decides they want to move him later, they want to get real value on him and not just use him in a salary neutral deal for George that leads to a roster that may not be as strong as they need it to be (as Lowe explains).
2. Clarkson is more expendable with George around. There are only so many minutes available on the wing/perimeter and I think the Lakers want more shooting and/or defense than what JC provides. Also, Clarkson’s contract is enough ballast to anchor a deal for George AND will need to be moved to clear the cap space to chase another big free agent to pair with Paul. Again, this would take moving Deng for pure salary relief, which is difficult (but could be easier next summer).
3. I’ve hinted at them above, but the salary math comes down to two major points. 1). The Lakers need to dump Deng and, assuming that happens, 2). The Lakers will need to decide between Clarkson and Randle. Clarkson’s salary in 2018-19 is $12.5 million, Randle’s cap hold for 2018-19 is $12.3 million. If the Lakers do not trade for George and do not add any long term money to their books this summer, they will have roughly $38.5 million in cap space next year (assuming a cap of $101 million – which is slightly conservative). Remove Deng ($18 million) and one of Randle or Clarkson and you have an additional $30 million in cap space. The team will need around $65 million to sign George and a 2nd max player, so you can do math and see how that works (38.5 + 30 = 68.5 or just enough room). If the Lakers trade for George now and add his cap hold to the mix, this changes things, but the team could still make it work and keep Randle, though it would be tighter and more difficult.
Considering all this, I think the Lakers are trying to signal that 1). they understand their offers are not up to the Pacers standards and 2). that they have the means to means (i.e. cap space) to chase George in free agency. If this gets them some leverage in the process, great — the team has surrendered some of that lately with the leaks of other team’s interest and the perception that no one wants any of the team’s young guys not named Ingram or Ball.
Snatching back some of that leverage with the proposition of “we’re the Lakers, we have cap space, and we have that Magic Johnson guy now to close on the player who already said he wants to play here…” is one of their only plays left and they’re doing it right now.
And when you add that approach to the stance they’re taking in free agency, it turns out we may just be doing a lot of waiting and seeing other teams do all the dirt. Which is fine. I could use a bit of free time!*
*Just typing this means that something big is going to happen and I won’t get any free time at all. That’s how this stuff seems to work. Haha.
Stephen says
I’ve been pretty insistent w/my Laker fan friends that LA should be trading for George this summer.
(FWIW,I’m a Rockets fan living in LA.)
However,I wonder if Magic and Co. aren’t right after all in not making a “Godfather” type offer.
What if the Lakers really mean it when they say this yr is a development yr? After all,George wants to be The Man and what if the Lakers are worried his presence THIS yr would hinder the growth of Ingram and the development of Ball. Might they be worried of a rerun of Kobe’s last yr when it was pretty clear that Kobe’s presence crippled Russell’s growth.
R says
I think PG would be more helpful to have on the team than Kobe was in his last year – I think Bean was a massive distraction who didn’t contribute much on the court. Well, except for the final game of the season; that was pretty impressive. Otherwise, though, not really.
Pbz06 says
Giving up valuable assets will be a horrible idea, something Jim Buss or Knicks would have done. If they take Randle, they better take Deng too. Randle is barely 23 and still developing.
Ideally Lakers only lose Clarkson and late draft picks. Unfortunately that’s just not enough. Clarkson is who he is at this point at 25, horrible defender, dribbles with his head down and goes iso. His PER is around 13 which is below average. For some reason, lots of Lakers fans see him as a rising star.
fern says
Im all for rolling the dice. Under NO circunstances the Lakers should get PG if it means gutting the team of its future. I know there isnt a lot to gut but im with Darius in that this can be a big year for Randle. Him and Clarkson are the trade assets but im more than willing to let Clarkson go. He stalled and thats why his value isn’t that high. Ingram and Ball should be untouchable. If it means missing out on PG next season SO BE IT. If Randle can have a solid season and Ingram who i expect to improve tremendously and Ball come right out of the gate producing and Lopez doing what he does ( i never really was a fan of his game but he is WAY better than Hibbert and Mozgov) we might have something going on and something to show to next summer free agents. So far im good with almost everything the new regime is doing. Im still kinda sore about how the DAR trade went down but i understand the rationale and im glad they are finally finally looking for guys in short term deals that can *gasp* defend, something so freaking simple that the old regime couldn’t grasp. I read people here talking “so the end game is getting two max players isnt that what the old regime did?” well, thats what EVERY team does. Triying to get the money to sign TALENT. The key is how you go about it. Unless your extremely lucky the chances to build a contender thru the Draft are almost zero. If somebody tell me that the Warriors knew they were drafting a dinasty i tell them they are liying. I expect improvement PG or not. We have some nice pieces in play finally and if our FO display common sense and hold to their strategy we might have a really improved team once the season starts. Since the first time since 2011 the dark clouds are starting to part. To think people here wanted PJ to run the team LMAO. GO LAKERS…
Fern says
Is being reported that George is telling the people close to him that he is still coming to LA in 2018. So why would the Lakers make a move? The Lakers are looming large on any deal any team wants to make…
Robert says
“Quiet Free Agency”
This locks in the fact that we will improve over last year’s Free Agency period.
Things are already looking up. We have quit digging !!
Old Timer says
Nothing to add and more to deduct barring unforeseen trade of PG will not materialize. There are currently 16 players in the roster including Tarik, Ennis. If Bryant goes to G League and Deng is shipped out after July 1st, then one vacancy from other Summer League applicants. Dozier was signed for duration of SL. Travis Wear PF improving but not much on D; then the other two guards that I like who are good in 3 pt. shooting: Alec Brown and Gabe York. I don’t see any merits in adding a new FA who might be a ball dominant being a veteran, becomes only a liability in stalling the game in the short run stay. The focus is now with the coaching staff on how they can load different strategies capitalizing the strength of the roster.
LordMo says
Well it is not often that you get a ReDeaux! Great understanding of the cap so far by Magic/Pelinka. Maneuvering for PG13, WestBrook and maybe LeBron and to be in play again is brilliant. They should get the execs of the year just for getting rid of that Boat Anchor of a deal that Mozgov has. Now we will see Magic do his thing because if he calls you and asks for a meeting then you do not say “No”. Might not sign with the Lakers but they will be some interest which we had gotten to the point were no top FA was taking our calls. I believe we get the 2 LA guys and thats what I have been saying for a long time …. Bring the LA boys home and let’s see then!
Keeping Lonzo in LA was just Phase 1 … I like that fact there seems to be a tangible vision with well thought out steps… Good Stuff!
LAkersfan1 says
My fellow Lakers brethren, no way anyone much less the Pacers will take on Deng’s contract unless there are multiple first rounders involved which we do not have. If you were the Pacers, why would you be saddled with another 3 years @ 18 million per. for a player that you would have a hard time moving while trying to rebuild around Myles Turner.
I bet none of us would be willing to accept that contract/ player unless multiple 1st rd picks are involved and a star player or a couple of solid starters type in return.
Some of you guys think JC, Randle and some rookies would be enough. People around the league don’t value these guys or else teams would be trying to include themselves into a three team trade scenario. Hart, Kuzma and Bryant have potential but until that potential is realized and have actual impact on the court, they have no real value right now.
We have to operate as if there is no PG, LeBron, Westbrook or any other potential 2018 UFAs on their way. We have to continue team building through the kids’ growing pains. Most of these guys can’t even legally buy a drink in LA, so let’s be patient and give the kids court time to grow and mature into their potential, rather than making up unrealistic situations of how we can obtain those superstars.
We still have to face the Warriors, Spurs, Houston, Utah and the other top West teams. The learning curve will be about 2-3 years for our guys before we can even sniff the playoffs as a lower seed on a consistent basis and in between, hopefully our guys will be enticing enough to generate other team’s interest and can swap for star players during those formative years.
So let’s keep it REAL and trust the new FO, they’re already doing an outstanding job in a matter of 2-3 months as opposed to the last 5 years. That’s what I’m excited for when the new season starts and we get to see how the rookies and the vets gel throughout the season. I’m really hoping that Lonzo can energize the team with his unselfish style of play, I believe that the ball will move well and finding the open man will be a beautiful sight to behold. We still need shooters though, hopefully the scouts can find some hidden gems after roster cuts as the regular season nears.
On to the Summer League in Vegas!!!
drrayeye says
I think that the Lakers have played the Paul George opportunity just right. They can still muster a credible trade all the way to free agency 2018. Meanwhile, they have been improving the team for next year.
The three Lakers that will remain in my trade basket (and not just mine) are Clarkson, Deng, and Randle–but there’s no rush. They provide the biggest strategic challenge to Magic/Pelinka starting now through the trading deadline.
CraigW. says
Sitting tight this summer has a different feel.
Perhaps it is that we now have a roster of youngsters that have a style of play that is common to them all – except for Jordan Clarkson, and we will see how that works out.
Randle is the other odd fit but, not only do I sense something different in what he is doing this summer, but his driving to the paint will be easier with Lopez replacing Mozgov.
George Best says
We really need to manage our cap space to set ourselves up for the free agents in 2015, 2016, 2017, and now the latest 2018. You know who will be available and they will want to come to the Lakers.
Meanwhile we try to recover from the bad deals of prior leadership and tank so we can acquire top picks and get ready to mix together a team of top young players and free agent superstars.
It’s been Groundhog Day in LA for the past few years and Paul George isn’t coming here next summer when the team with assets is willing to give them up this summer and can offer him more to resign next summer.
Magic knows this but he also knows he needs to make a splash and get rid of a bad contract so he trades an asset to reduce the talent level of the team and to make the fans think that we have all this cap space and that a trade for George is coming on his terms because George wants to be in LA. Wrong. It’s a win now league and the Celtics, Spurs, and Cavs et al aren’t holding pat even if they get George for just one year.
Magic is now stuck. He will now either include Ingram or Ball and get George and we now have our superstar and maybe that helps lure some other superstars but who! LeBron? Just stop. Westbrook? Okc will have him signed soon before too long. Who else? Nobody who isn’t on the wrong side of 30, overpaid, or both. This is why players like Deng and Mozgov get those deals. The Knicks and Lakers are the teams most likely to have to make these signings.
So how does it play out? Either the Lakers get rid of two out of three of Ingram, Ball, and Randle and with some luck get 2-3 superstar types when mixed with what’s left makes us a conference finalist at best while we wonder what if as our yoUng players show something elsewhere. The other option is we don’t pull the trigger on George now and out of desperation use this new found cap space on players that at best don’t make us more than a fringe playoff team or worse a team with more bad contracts minus DAR who we then hope plays his way into a reduced role because of laziness and attitude to justify a trade we made too early.
Magics ultimate mistake will not be first acquiring George before he traded DAR. The trade of DAR would be understandable to get George or to get cap space once we had George. Now he’s left knowing none of his options are good and his legacy could very easily end up being the guy who didn’t make the Lakers better while also being the first GM to have the Nets get the better of him in a trade in the past 10-15 years
I guess Magic
adamv37 says
I think a quiet summer is the best option. I know we’re all excited about getting George in a Laker jersey ASAP but we still have a ton of guys who need to develop and a Warriors team that’s still bringing back 4 all-stars for the next few years. Let’s give the young guys..
And as I’m typing PG to the Thunder!?!?!?!?
So yeah, let’s let the young guys develop and see what we have a year from now.
Fern says
So they traded PG to the Thunder, making his arrival on the Lakers next summer all but a certainty…
Clay Bertrand says
OKC??? Rental???
Tra says
PG13 to OKC. Nothing being reported, thusfar, in regards to him agreeing to eventually sign on long term. So it looks like OKC decided to roll the dice, while also getting out from under the contract of Oladipo. Somewhere, Magic & Pelinka are smiling.
Clay Bertrand says
The return for INDY is PALTRY. It’s clearly a gamble trade. There is even a little upside in cap space if PG does NOT re-sign. As soon as I saw that “haul” for Indy, I knew its not some done deal that he is signing long term at this point.
Could he change his mind??? NO. Its OKLAHOMA. I have family from there. It SUCKS. Tornadoes from hell, and with all the fracking, they have more earthquakes than Cali. AND if you happen to have Cannabis on you, its almost a Death Sentence there. Just sayin.
Not very cosmoPAULitan.
Never eat seafood in Oklahoma.
I don’t care what their record is, it’ll surprise me if PG re-signs there.
Joe Black says
Awesome night for the Lakers. PG13 will never sign an extension with OKC. This clears the road for the Lakers to retain all players going into the all important 2018 free agency. We can all more confidently say we are one year away.
Chris J says
I don’t know the man or what he or his family is thinking. But from a distance it sure looks like a Godsend that George was dealt to Oklahoma City and not a place like Boston or Cleveland, or worse, San Antonio.
The Thunder don’t have much to offer beyond playing with Westbrook, which (as of now) isn’t a given beyond 2017-18, plus whatever added money they’d be able to offer George next summer as an incumbent player. Sure an extra $50 million is a lot, but George will still receive a nine-figure offer from L.A. a year from now, and he should seemingly have some younger talent around which to build as a Laker.
Throw in the added appeal of playing closer to home, and living in L.A. near the beach rather than on a frozen tundra — it just seems like an ideal deal that sets the Lakers up in a great position next summer; much better to see him with the Thunder than risking that he’d grow to like playing in Boston or San Antonio.
RR says
Could see George and Westbrook coming here, or could see them going to the Clippers if the Clippers FO can figure out a way to get them both on the payroll with Griffin, or could see them splitting up. Hard to picture both of them staying in OKC, though. One thing I am pretty sure of: people on this board will continue to make assertions about what George is going to do.
Arguably the two best non-James wings in the East…are now in the West.
Old Timer says
That was a great news George did go with the hated Danny Ainge nor Mr. Small Market – Dan Gilbert. This could accelerate James plans something to think about residing in the West Coast and form a trifecta with George and his recruit Westbrook. Jeanie, can you open your purse again in 2018? If it does not happen in ’18, for sure George will team up with Mychal’s son, Klay Thompson in ’19 while our youngster will be reaching their peaks. This dream is more realistic than the longshot horse racing style of Jim Buss since 2011.
The next agenda is to sign Tarik Black one year only, he is much better than Ike Anigbogu who excelled in the Bruins Ball Alley Hoops. I’m sure Rob Pelinka is using his selling technique in offering Luol Deng to teams who have been gutted out without a star. They need a veteran for their roster. I read somewhere that Lakers are signing Tyler Ennis for another year, will that happen tomorrow?
RR says
One thing to keep in mind: George could get traded at the deadline. I assume that Westbrook has a NTC, but I don’t know.