The only upside of playing AMO, as my brother calls him, is we are winning by a lot. Other than that, he’s terrible. Absolutely terrible.
sTsays
That is just hilarious, indeed. Along with Kurt’s previous comment, I am very happy and in an up swing of a mood tonight. Let’s just keep this going with a Laker win over Houston.
haroldsays
Mbenga, Adam, Sasha… we need an H to complete our Mash Unit. Where’s Horry when you need him…
Speaking of AMMO, we should have our own cool stat that we can use to judge how we thoroughly outplayed the other team, and call it AMMO – measured in minutes played by Adam.
A win will probably be around the 1-2 AMMO, a good win around 2 – 5 AMMO, and a total beatdown be round 6 – 10. Anything more? A game that was a laugher.
Anderssays
This reminds me of Bogut´s hilarious high fives to no one in particular:
My god that just vaulted Ammo to #1 on my Goofy White Guy list. Right above Matt Bonner and Brian Scalabrine.
imposibolsays
seeing ammo on the floor could either be good or bad. he could be the human victory cigar or the human white flag. hopefully the former would be the one we’ll see often. no more close games, it may kill my dad. 😀
Wayne Winston is a professor at Indiana University and for nine years was Mark Cuban’s stat guru for the Dallas Mavericks. He had an interesting take on the Lakers on TrueHoop today.
“If Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant, Ron Artest and Lamar Odom are healthy they should have no problem. Lakers are great when at least three of these guys are on court. They have two great lineups: The Big Four with either Shannon Brown or Jordan Farmar. These lineups play more than 40 points better than average, and nobody can match this. With Fisher as the fifth player they play 20 points better than average.”
This morning I realized that with Pau and Artest out the Lakers basically beat down the Mavericks on Sunday with a depleted form of 2006-2007’s lineup.
sbdunkssays
I saw that Wayne Winston article as well; perfect timing for the endorsement of the Farmar or Brown starting over Fisher argument. However, Winston was also the guy who said he would not take Durant on his team for free (prior to this season), also I’m sure he played a large part in trading away Harris for Kidd (an iffy trade). Cuban regularly touted “their numbers” to defend the move.
I’m not down with the Fish bashing, the man has definitely done his part for our last four championships; but I do agree in part with Aaron and others. The main line of defense of Fish starting seems to be, well… Farmar, Brown and Sasha haven’t stepped up to take the starting job away from him. The problem with that is, is that we’re compare their play, primarily with other bench players, to Fishers play, primarily with the starters. That’s comparing apples to oranges. We can’t compare them until they get meaningful minutes with the starters. Lately they (particularly Farmar and, to a lesser extent Sasha) have got more meaningful burn and have played well.
PJ likes to experiment, let’s do it. Give Farmar a few games starting at point. Give Sasha a few games starting at point. Fishers touted as a leader and a steadying hand on the court, wouldn’t he be a better fit to lead the more inexperienced second unit; I mean, c’mon, with Kobe and Pau on the court together, do we really need much more leadership? The benefit would be twofold – one, Fish would lead the bench and make sure they run the offense correctly, plus he’d be matched up with the oppositions backup, and naturally less talented, PG.
Seriously, how many people think Jordan or Sasha would play worse than Fish if they started??
Then I will have successfully enacted 3 different themes/motifs to this season.
sbdunkssays
Haha, Zephid, I knew you’d like that. Sasha would actually be my first choice if it was up to me. He’s long and quick, and always plays better with Kobe on the floor. As long as he’s in control, he plays pretty good D, I think sometimes he just gets too excited when he gets playing time and is overaggressive. He’s shown that he has the capability to be a knock down shooter, he may be our best in that regard. And we definitely need good outside shooting to space the floor and keep the opposition from packing the paint.
Winston was fired from the Mavericks because of the quality of his advice. As SBdunks said, this is the man who was bashing Durant all summer long. He also supported the Devin Harris/Kidd move and other steps the Maverick’s have taken that have left them with a roster that can’t win a title. All of which is to say, I’m not sure how much stock you want to put in his comments. He lives by adjusted +/-, which is another debate entirely.
The Mavs also had the highest payroll in the NBA last year, by far. If Cuban was relying heavily on this guy’s stats to field this current team, no wonder he was let go. Although, in the pres-season I did pick the Mavs to lose to us in the WCF’s, you don’t spend that kind of money unless you’re keeping guys that have already got you a Title. Kind of like us.
Aaronsays
Kurt,
These aren’t opinions he is giving. And this isn’t one players plus/minus. This is the best way to compare how the Lakers do with Fisher playing with our best players as compared to Farmar and Brown. And the Lakers play twice as well with either Brown or Farmar. The only argument to these stats is that Brown and Farmar play with that unit mainly against bad teams.
I’m not going to get into the adjusted plus/minus debate again. Suffice to say that within the basketball statistical community there are differing opinions on its effectiveness. So I don’t see his numbers as an open and shut case.
j. d. hastingssays
Aaron, just yesterday you were poo-pooing +/- when it benefitted Fisher. Now suddenly Winston’s is the “best method?”
Do you even know what his methodology is? The answer is no, because he “adjusts” all his +/- data in ways he keeps secret so that he can control its usage. And those secret adjustments once proclaimed that Jason Kidd is the 2nd best player in the league and Odom is better than Kobe.
Continuing to point out anytime someone agrees with you doesn’t prove anything other than that you are really really strangely devoted to the need to make others believe the same as you do about Fisher- even though none of us are Phil Jackson or Mitch Kupchak so even if we did agree it wouldn’t matter.
I’m putting my trust in the guy with 10 rings. No offense.
Aaronsays
Kurt,
I don’t see any statistical evidence resulting in an open and shut case with basketball. However when so many different ways of statistically looking at the game point to fisher being being worse than the Lakers other PG options (including the eye ball test) it is an open and shut case.
J.D.,
Am I the only one that went to college? Plus/minus is apples and oranges with Fisher compared to Farmar and Brown because Fisher plays only with the first unit. When comparing Fisher on the first unit to Brown and Farmar on the first unit that is apples to apples. And when you compare the Lakers are plus 20 with Fisher and plus 40 with either Brown or Farmar.
Pinkysays
Very interesting that many of the top players in plus/minus are very good players who happen to play with great players.
chris hsays
geez, I feel like the father of a teenager who won’t stop arguing with me trying to convince me that he is right and I am wrong. their goal is that they never quit, it’s a constant barrage and verbal assault to try to wear you down so you just plain ol’ give up and concede.
if this would work, then..
Aaron, you have convinced me, Fisher is the worst PG in the league, you are either PJ or his equal, and I am going to listen to you and agree with you no matter what you say from now on.
OK? will that do it? can we let it rest now?
sorry for the sarcasm… probably you should delete this Kurt.
13) sbdunks,
“The problem with that is, is that we’re compare their play, primarily with other bench players, to Fishers play, primarily with the starters.”
The problem with Brown, Vujacic, and Farmar is their style of play (i.e. poor decision-making) and their inability to hit open shots. That should not be a function of who they are playing with.
Anonymoussays
“#85.
Aaron wrote on January 4, 2010 at 10:00 pm
J.D.
The reason Fisher is the Lakers only PG to have a positive plus/minus is because he only is allowed to play with the starters.
”
“Aaron wrote on January 5, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Kurt,
These aren’t opinions he is giving. And this isn’t one players plus/minus. This is the best way to compare how the Lakers do with Fisher playing with our best players as compared to Farmar and Brown. And the Lakers play twice as well with either Brown or Farmar. The only argument to these stats is that Brown and Farmar play with that unit mainly against bad teams.”
Is using +/- the end all stat only if it applies to certain situations? At any rate, I am curious as to what Winston “adjusts” for his +/- calculation. Does he adjust it for whether a player plays against the other’s team’s full starting lineup, a partial starting lineup, a full bench, etc.?
Maybe we can make taking a charge an adjustment to +/- to Fisher’s benefit.
Jsays
Good G%d are we still on the Fisher debate? Can we talk about something else? I’ll toss something out semi-related to this post for discussion.
Forget salary, forget his draft status, let’s just look at today and going forward. Is there any way AMMO can be a solid role player? I ask because I’ve been shocked at how JJ Redick has managed to climb out of purgatory and become a solid role player.
Just like AMMO, JJ had the same athletic weaknesses. Same strength as a good shooter. In last year’s playoffs, I thought JJ did a creditable job on D even against Kobe. He’s never going to be a stopper but he’s not a complete liability either. Now you through in that stroke and he’s a solid NBA player. How many Laker fans would kill to have him coming off the bench. Decent D and killer stroke. Basically a better version of The Machine circa 2007, D and shot.
JJ worked hard, improved his body and learned how to play goood D. Does Ammo have that potential? How much did that knee injury rob him? Can his stroke be lethal enough? Is he smart enough to play good Team D using his length at the SF position?
This has become comical. And you know why I’m laughing? Based off Winston’s analysis, the Lakers are 20 points better than average when Fisher plays with Kobe/Ron/LO/Pau! I’m wondering why that’s not good enough. Because another set of guys plays 40 points better? I know that our own Pat Riley was talking about something entirely different, but that, right there, is the definition of “the disease of more”.
Regarding the Winston/Abbott article: didn’t anyone here notice that Winston mentioned that Kobe isn’t one of the top MVP candidates? He said Dirk is the unquestioned MVP of the league so far, with Luol Deng mentioned as one of the top runner-ups! Luol Deng, people. I couldn’t resist commenting about that one with my “concern troll/sarcastic dude” persona. Naturally, I assume that Henry agrees with Winston here, since he usually posts his own thoughts when he disagrees with his interviewee and he didn’t mention Kobe/Deng. Anyway, my comment is below:
——————————————-
“Have to agree with Winston and Henry here. In no way, shape, or form, is Kobe Bryant an MVP candidate, while Luol Deng unquestionably is a top candidate. Adjusted plus/minus is the only metric that should be used here. Whether or not your team wins games should NEVER be considered. Can’t you people see that? I would have to nominate another candidate not currently mentioned by Henry or Winston because of the small sample size (but who is surely a more valuable player than Kobe Bryant), and his name is Yi Jianlian. Look how much better the Nets have played since Yi returned! I’m fully confident that Henry and Winston will be pointing this out after a few more games are under Yi’s belt. Remember, winning doesn’t matter when it comes to discussing MVP voting. It’s adjusted plus/minus that matters, and this is also why the 2009 NBA Finals MVP should have been awarded to the most effective player on the Orlando Magic in that series, measured by plus/minus, and that’s Dwight Howard. Sure, he missed two FTs that would have clinched Game 4, but plus/minus doesn’t penalize him for that, and winning games doesn’t matter, either.”
——————————————–
It’s hard to take anything Winston says seriously when he makes the argument that Luol Deng is a legitimate MVP candidate and Kobe Bryant isn’t. However, the best argument favoring less playing time for Fish is that our backups haven’t been given a chance to play with our full or nearly full complement of starters. We’ve all noticed that Phil has been giving Jordan many more minutes with the rest of the starters over the past few games. I believe that this trend will continue, but it’s highly doubtful that a healthy Fish will lose his starting job this season. I still see Jordan finishing a lot more games with the starters in the future, though.
The Dude,
I noticed what he said about Kobe. “People forget that Kobe has great teammates.” That line seriously made me laugh. I mean, really? People forget? I’m pretty sure they haven’t forgotten.
On a completely sidetracked note, when Dwyer wrote over the summer that Duncan was the best player of the past decade, I really didn’t disagree with him. You know why? – double teams. Duncan draws a ton of double teams ( and has done so his entire career) and ultimately, that’s how you make teammates better. You make more than one player guard you and create an advantage for your team. When you create a 4 on 3 situation for your team, you’ve done your job plus some. Whether it’s through establishing the post or playing the P&R or collapsing the paint on dribble penetration, you make two players guard you and that’s gonna make a difference regardless if you’ve got crappy teammates or not because these are all pros and most of them can either make an open shot or make a move when wide open to create an even better shot for someone else. I say all this becasue over the past few seasons, Kobe has been getting double teamed more and more to the point that I can’t recall another wing man (since Jordan) that commanded a double team as frequently as Kobe. I think back to the Denver series and how the games became less competitive (in our favor) when George Karl started to double Kobe whenever he caught the ball and Kobe just demolished their defense with pin point passes to cutters and wide open jumpshooters. And Kobe did the same thing to Orlando when they tried to double team him. Out of all the things that make Kobe great, this is one of the things that rarely gets mentioned. So, I thought I’d say something.
Anyways, just a random thought. Proceed with whatever you were talking about before.
themojojedisays
Most basketball analysts out there are aided by statistics and formulas, others are ruled by them.
To their detriment, both Wayne Winston and Kelly Dwyer tend to slip into the latter category on more than the rare occasion. The result is often making incorrect or irresponsible inferences due to being blinded to what the numbers are actually telling you.
For Wayne Winston, his “Kevin Durant’s +/- sucks and I wouldn’t sign him for free” blunder has been well documented and to his credit he made a post on his blog rewording the conclusion he should have drawn from Durant’s +/-.
Kelly Dwyer’s Behind the Boxscore columns reveal his talent for observing and reporting on basketball activity. When it comes to making rankings or lists however, I find that he drinks from the well of PER all too regularly.
The most recent example, Tim Duncan over Kobe in today’s MVP column. Note that the top 5 candidates he mentions are, in exact order, the top 5 in PER. Chris Paul he knocks off for missing too many games and Bosh’s defense takes him out of contention.
But Dwyer then sticks to PER and ranks Duncan’s value ahead of Kobe, not in spite of Duncan playing 6-7 fewer minutes per game, but BECAUSE of it. PER suggests Duncan is more efficient than Kobe, not more valuable or productive overall. So if Duncan is roughly 7% more efficient than Kobe according to PER, but Kobe works for 20% longer per night then who is actually adding more value to his team?
He also makes a case that there is a huge distinction in defensive impact but doesn’t make a case to support it. If the individual defensive rating on Basketball-Reference is any indication the difference is minimal (Duncan’s 100.1 rating compared to Kobe’s 100.7). Either way, any difference in defensive impact would also need to be significant enough to overcome the value Kobe is adding to his team by playing so many more minutes.
And don’t get me started on his comment about the slow pace of LeBron’s team meaning his stats suffer. I do not buy for a second the “woe is he”/ pace as a linear constraint interpretation. Pace is an efficiency modifier, employed by coaches to accentuate the strengths of their team and the star player is the biggest beneficiary. This includes fast pace teams like the Suns maximising the talent, efficiency and production of Nash or slower teams like Cleveland,Portland and New Orleans (moreso in previous years) slowing possessions and having players like LeBron,Roy and Chris Paul benefit statistically from being the primary offensive focus and having a centralisation of decision making.
Berniesays
Have to agree with The Dude about the ridiculousness of Winston’s plus/minus system when there are so many examples of him being completely off-base.
However, say what you want on the tenets of adjusted plus/minus, at least its an ethos. That one is for The Dude!
Chise says
The only upside of playing AMO, as my brother calls him, is we are winning by a lot. Other than that, he’s terrible. Absolutely terrible.
sT says
That is just hilarious, indeed. Along with Kurt’s previous comment, I am very happy and in an up swing of a mood tonight. Let’s just keep this going with a Laker win over Houston.
harold says
Mbenga, Adam, Sasha… we need an H to complete our Mash Unit. Where’s Horry when you need him…
Speaking of AMMO, we should have our own cool stat that we can use to judge how we thoroughly outplayed the other team, and call it AMMO – measured in minutes played by Adam.
A win will probably be around the 1-2 AMMO, a good win around 2 – 5 AMMO, and a total beatdown be round 6 – 10. Anything more? A game that was a laugher.
Anders says
This reminds me of Bogut´s hilarious high fives to no one in particular:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zc11PUnFgkQ
Zephid says
My god that just vaulted Ammo to #1 on my Goofy White Guy list. Right above Matt Bonner and Brian Scalabrine.
imposibol says
seeing ammo on the floor could either be good or bad. he could be the human victory cigar or the human white flag. hopefully the former would be the one we’ll see often. no more close games, it may kill my dad. 😀
wondahbap says
Ammo was going to switch sides again, and remembered he already did that. So, he was caught off guard by the high five and thought it was for him.
I don’t think it was an attempt to be funny. It was confusion.
I’d really love to know what Tim Thomas could possibly have been jawing about.
Igor Avidon says
That was SO awkward.. he totally thought he was getting high-fived haha
themonkey says
Let enjoy these moments until we reach the horrid road schedule with so many back-to-back it isn’t even funny.
Darius says
Go check out Dwyer singing the praises of Kobe Bean and Timmy Duncan. Good stuff…
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Kobe-and-Duncan-are-still-better-than-you?urn=nba,211932#remaining-content
Aaron says
Wayne Winston is a professor at Indiana University and for nine years was Mark Cuban’s stat guru for the Dallas Mavericks. He had an interesting take on the Lakers on TrueHoop today.
“If Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant, Ron Artest and Lamar Odom are healthy they should have no problem. Lakers are great when at least three of these guys are on court. They have two great lineups: The Big Four with either Shannon Brown or Jordan Farmar. These lineups play more than 40 points better than average, and nobody can match this. With Fisher as the fifth player they play 20 points better than average.”
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/11993/ten-weeks-in-ten-questions-for-wayne-winston
j. d. hastings says
Deep thought for the day:
This morning I realized that with Pau and Artest out the Lakers basically beat down the Mavericks on Sunday with a depleted form of 2006-2007’s lineup.
sbdunks says
I saw that Wayne Winston article as well; perfect timing for the endorsement of the Farmar or Brown starting over Fisher argument. However, Winston was also the guy who said he would not take Durant on his team for free (prior to this season), also I’m sure he played a large part in trading away Harris for Kidd (an iffy trade). Cuban regularly touted “their numbers” to defend the move.
I’m not down with the Fish bashing, the man has definitely done his part for our last four championships; but I do agree in part with Aaron and others. The main line of defense of Fish starting seems to be, well… Farmar, Brown and Sasha haven’t stepped up to take the starting job away from him. The problem with that is, is that we’re compare their play, primarily with other bench players, to Fishers play, primarily with the starters. That’s comparing apples to oranges. We can’t compare them until they get meaningful minutes with the starters. Lately they (particularly Farmar and, to a lesser extent Sasha) have got more meaningful burn and have played well.
PJ likes to experiment, let’s do it. Give Farmar a few games starting at point. Give Sasha a few games starting at point. Fishers touted as a leader and a steadying hand on the court, wouldn’t he be a better fit to lead the more inexperienced second unit; I mean, c’mon, with Kobe and Pau on the court together, do we really need much more leadership? The benefit would be twofold – one, Fish would lead the bench and make sure they run the offense correctly, plus he’d be matched up with the oppositions backup, and naturally less talented, PG.
Seriously, how many people think Jordan or Sasha would play worse than Fish if they started??
Zephid says
13, Sasha will most certainly take up the mantle!
Start Sasha! Start Sasha!
Then I will have successfully enacted 3 different themes/motifs to this season.
sbdunks says
Haha, Zephid, I knew you’d like that. Sasha would actually be my first choice if it was up to me. He’s long and quick, and always plays better with Kobe on the floor. As long as he’s in control, he plays pretty good D, I think sometimes he just gets too excited when he gets playing time and is overaggressive. He’s shown that he has the capability to be a knock down shooter, he may be our best in that regard. And we definitely need good outside shooting to space the floor and keep the opposition from packing the paint.
Kurt says
Winston was fired from the Mavericks because of the quality of his advice. As SBdunks said, this is the man who was bashing Durant all summer long. He also supported the Devin Harris/Kidd move and other steps the Maverick’s have taken that have left them with a roster that can’t win a title. All of which is to say, I’m not sure how much stock you want to put in his comments. He lives by adjusted +/-, which is another debate entirely.
wondahbap says
To add on to Kurt comment…
The Mavs also had the highest payroll in the NBA last year, by far. If Cuban was relying heavily on this guy’s stats to field this current team, no wonder he was let go. Although, in the pres-season I did pick the Mavs to lose to us in the WCF’s, you don’t spend that kind of money unless you’re keeping guys that have already got you a Title. Kind of like us.
Aaron says
Kurt,
These aren’t opinions he is giving. And this isn’t one players plus/minus. This is the best way to compare how the Lakers do with Fisher playing with our best players as compared to Farmar and Brown. And the Lakers play twice as well with either Brown or Farmar. The only argument to these stats is that Brown and Farmar play with that unit mainly against bad teams.
Kurt says
I’m not going to get into the adjusted plus/minus debate again. Suffice to say that within the basketball statistical community there are differing opinions on its effectiveness. So I don’t see his numbers as an open and shut case.
j. d. hastings says
Aaron, just yesterday you were poo-pooing +/- when it benefitted Fisher. Now suddenly Winston’s is the “best method?”
Do you even know what his methodology is? The answer is no, because he “adjusts” all his +/- data in ways he keeps secret so that he can control its usage. And those secret adjustments once proclaimed that Jason Kidd is the 2nd best player in the league and Odom is better than Kobe.
Continuing to point out anytime someone agrees with you doesn’t prove anything other than that you are really really strangely devoted to the need to make others believe the same as you do about Fisher- even though none of us are Phil Jackson or Mitch Kupchak so even if we did agree it wouldn’t matter.
I’m putting my trust in the guy with 10 rings. No offense.
Aaron says
Kurt,
I don’t see any statistical evidence resulting in an open and shut case with basketball. However when so many different ways of statistically looking at the game point to fisher being being worse than the Lakers other PG options (including the eye ball test) it is an open and shut case.
J.D.,
Am I the only one that went to college? Plus/minus is apples and oranges with Fisher compared to Farmar and Brown because Fisher plays only with the first unit. When comparing Fisher on the first unit to Brown and Farmar on the first unit that is apples to apples. And when you compare the Lakers are plus 20 with Fisher and plus 40 with either Brown or Farmar.
Pinky says
Very interesting that many of the top players in plus/minus are very good players who happen to play with great players.
chris h says
geez, I feel like the father of a teenager who won’t stop arguing with me trying to convince me that he is right and I am wrong. their goal is that they never quit, it’s a constant barrage and verbal assault to try to wear you down so you just plain ol’ give up and concede.
if this would work, then..
Aaron, you have convinced me, Fisher is the worst PG in the league, you are either PJ or his equal, and I am going to listen to you and agree with you no matter what you say from now on.
OK? will that do it? can we let it rest now?
sorry for the sarcasm… probably you should delete this Kurt.
exhelodrvr says
13) sbdunks,
“The problem with that is, is that we’re compare their play, primarily with other bench players, to Fishers play, primarily with the starters.”
The problem with Brown, Vujacic, and Farmar is their style of play (i.e. poor decision-making) and their inability to hit open shots. That should not be a function of who they are playing with.
Anonymous says
“#85.
Aaron wrote on January 4, 2010 at 10:00 pm
J.D.
The reason Fisher is the Lakers only PG to have a positive plus/minus is because he only is allowed to play with the starters.
”
“Aaron wrote on January 5, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Kurt,
These aren’t opinions he is giving. And this isn’t one players plus/minus. This is the best way to compare how the Lakers do with Fisher playing with our best players as compared to Farmar and Brown. And the Lakers play twice as well with either Brown or Farmar. The only argument to these stats is that Brown and Farmar play with that unit mainly against bad teams.”
Is using +/- the end all stat only if it applies to certain situations? At any rate, I am curious as to what Winston “adjusts” for his +/- calculation. Does he adjust it for whether a player plays against the other’s team’s full starting lineup, a partial starting lineup, a full bench, etc.?
Maybe we can make taking a charge an adjustment to +/- to Fisher’s benefit.
J says
Good G%d are we still on the Fisher debate? Can we talk about something else? I’ll toss something out semi-related to this post for discussion.
Forget salary, forget his draft status, let’s just look at today and going forward. Is there any way AMMO can be a solid role player? I ask because I’ve been shocked at how JJ Redick has managed to climb out of purgatory and become a solid role player.
Just like AMMO, JJ had the same athletic weaknesses. Same strength as a good shooter. In last year’s playoffs, I thought JJ did a creditable job on D even against Kobe. He’s never going to be a stopper but he’s not a complete liability either. Now you through in that stroke and he’s a solid NBA player. How many Laker fans would kill to have him coming off the bench. Decent D and killer stroke. Basically a better version of The Machine circa 2007, D and shot.
JJ worked hard, improved his body and learned how to play goood D. Does Ammo have that potential? How much did that knee injury rob him? Can his stroke be lethal enough? Is he smart enough to play good Team D using his length at the SF position?
Thoughts?
Darius says
This has become comical. And you know why I’m laughing? Based off Winston’s analysis, the Lakers are 20 points better than average when Fisher plays with Kobe/Ron/LO/Pau! I’m wondering why that’s not good enough. Because another set of guys plays 40 points better? I know that our own Pat Riley was talking about something entirely different, but that, right there, is the definition of “the disease of more”.
The Dude Abides says
Regarding the Winston/Abbott article: didn’t anyone here notice that Winston mentioned that Kobe isn’t one of the top MVP candidates? He said Dirk is the unquestioned MVP of the league so far, with Luol Deng mentioned as one of the top runner-ups! Luol Deng, people. I couldn’t resist commenting about that one with my “concern troll/sarcastic dude” persona. Naturally, I assume that Henry agrees with Winston here, since he usually posts his own thoughts when he disagrees with his interviewee and he didn’t mention Kobe/Deng. Anyway, my comment is below:
——————————————-
“Have to agree with Winston and Henry here. In no way, shape, or form, is Kobe Bryant an MVP candidate, while Luol Deng unquestionably is a top candidate. Adjusted plus/minus is the only metric that should be used here. Whether or not your team wins games should NEVER be considered. Can’t you people see that? I would have to nominate another candidate not currently mentioned by Henry or Winston because of the small sample size (but who is surely a more valuable player than Kobe Bryant), and his name is Yi Jianlian. Look how much better the Nets have played since Yi returned! I’m fully confident that Henry and Winston will be pointing this out after a few more games are under Yi’s belt. Remember, winning doesn’t matter when it comes to discussing MVP voting. It’s adjusted plus/minus that matters, and this is also why the 2009 NBA Finals MVP should have been awarded to the most effective player on the Orlando Magic in that series, measured by plus/minus, and that’s Dwight Howard. Sure, he missed two FTs that would have clinched Game 4, but plus/minus doesn’t penalize him for that, and winning games doesn’t matter, either.”
——————————————–
It’s hard to take anything Winston says seriously when he makes the argument that Luol Deng is a legitimate MVP candidate and Kobe Bryant isn’t. However, the best argument favoring less playing time for Fish is that our backups haven’t been given a chance to play with our full or nearly full complement of starters. We’ve all noticed that Phil has been giving Jordan many more minutes with the rest of the starters over the past few games. I believe that this trend will continue, but it’s highly doubtful that a healthy Fish will lose his starting job this season. I still see Jordan finishing a lot more games with the starters in the future, though.
Kurt says
Lakers/Rockets preview up:
http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2010/01/05/preview-chat-the-houston-rockets-8/
Darius says
The Dude,
I noticed what he said about Kobe. “People forget that Kobe has great teammates.” That line seriously made me laugh. I mean, really? People forget? I’m pretty sure they haven’t forgotten.
On a completely sidetracked note, when Dwyer wrote over the summer that Duncan was the best player of the past decade, I really didn’t disagree with him. You know why? – double teams. Duncan draws a ton of double teams ( and has done so his entire career) and ultimately, that’s how you make teammates better. You make more than one player guard you and create an advantage for your team. When you create a 4 on 3 situation for your team, you’ve done your job plus some. Whether it’s through establishing the post or playing the P&R or collapsing the paint on dribble penetration, you make two players guard you and that’s gonna make a difference regardless if you’ve got crappy teammates or not because these are all pros and most of them can either make an open shot or make a move when wide open to create an even better shot for someone else. I say all this becasue over the past few seasons, Kobe has been getting double teamed more and more to the point that I can’t recall another wing man (since Jordan) that commanded a double team as frequently as Kobe. I think back to the Denver series and how the games became less competitive (in our favor) when George Karl started to double Kobe whenever he caught the ball and Kobe just demolished their defense with pin point passes to cutters and wide open jumpshooters. And Kobe did the same thing to Orlando when they tried to double team him. Out of all the things that make Kobe great, this is one of the things that rarely gets mentioned. So, I thought I’d say something.
Anyways, just a random thought. Proceed with whatever you were talking about before.
themojojedi says
Most basketball analysts out there are aided by statistics and formulas, others are ruled by them.
To their detriment, both Wayne Winston and Kelly Dwyer tend to slip into the latter category on more than the rare occasion. The result is often making incorrect or irresponsible inferences due to being blinded to what the numbers are actually telling you.
For Wayne Winston, his “Kevin Durant’s +/- sucks and I wouldn’t sign him for free” blunder has been well documented and to his credit he made a post on his blog rewording the conclusion he should have drawn from Durant’s +/-.
Kelly Dwyer’s Behind the Boxscore columns reveal his talent for observing and reporting on basketball activity. When it comes to making rankings or lists however, I find that he drinks from the well of PER all too regularly.
The most recent example, Tim Duncan over Kobe in today’s MVP column. Note that the top 5 candidates he mentions are, in exact order, the top 5 in PER. Chris Paul he knocks off for missing too many games and Bosh’s defense takes him out of contention.
But Dwyer then sticks to PER and ranks Duncan’s value ahead of Kobe, not in spite of Duncan playing 6-7 fewer minutes per game, but BECAUSE of it. PER suggests Duncan is more efficient than Kobe, not more valuable or productive overall. So if Duncan is roughly 7% more efficient than Kobe according to PER, but Kobe works for 20% longer per night then who is actually adding more value to his team?
He also makes a case that there is a huge distinction in defensive impact but doesn’t make a case to support it. If the individual defensive rating on Basketball-Reference is any indication the difference is minimal (Duncan’s 100.1 rating compared to Kobe’s 100.7). Either way, any difference in defensive impact would also need to be significant enough to overcome the value Kobe is adding to his team by playing so many more minutes.
And don’t get me started on his comment about the slow pace of LeBron’s team meaning his stats suffer. I do not buy for a second the “woe is he”/ pace as a linear constraint interpretation. Pace is an efficiency modifier, employed by coaches to accentuate the strengths of their team and the star player is the biggest beneficiary. This includes fast pace teams like the Suns maximising the talent, efficiency and production of Nash or slower teams like Cleveland,Portland and New Orleans (moreso in previous years) slowing possessions and having players like LeBron,Roy and Chris Paul benefit statistically from being the primary offensive focus and having a centralisation of decision making.
Bernie says
Have to agree with The Dude about the ridiculousness of Winston’s plus/minus system when there are so many examples of him being completely off-base.
However, say what you want on the tenets of adjusted plus/minus, at least its an ethos. That one is for The Dude!
The Dude Abides says
Bernie, so is National Socialism.