Used to be that a game between the Lakers and the Spurs was appointment viewing. Back in the day, this was a battle between perennial contenders and a preview of what could be a heated playoff match up that would determine which team would likely represent the western conference for the league championship. And while some of the principles remain — Kobe, Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Popovich — this game is no longer that. Instead, you have the Spurs, still one of the league’s best and the reigning champs, against the 1-7 Lakers. Just typing that made an already depressing season even more so.
While they are still the champs, the Spurs don’t come into this game at anywhere near full strength. Yes, their big three + Kawhi Leonard (more on him in a bit) are all healthy, but starting Center Tiago Splitter and key reserves Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli are all out. This may not seem like a big deal to the Borg-like Spurs, but these guys are all key contributors who make several of the Spurs’ key lineups hum. Mills’ absence has seemed to especially affect this team as his scoring and ability to run Gregg Popovich’s motion-weak offense has been a major asset whenever Tony Parker is on the bench.
In saying all this, however, let’s not get all weepy for this team. While their record is only 4-3, they are coming off back to back road wins over the Clippers and the Warriors — two of the supposed contenders to the Spurs’ supremacy. In the game versus the Clipps, the Spurs offered a clinic on closing, coming from behind with a furious run in the final minutes to show once again that they cannot be counted out under any circumstances. The Warriors’ game, meanwhile, was simply the Spurs being the Spurs as shooting, key defensive stops, and overall smarts turned what was a close game into one that was decidedly not by the time the final whistle blew. In other words, this team may be missing some pieces and is not yet firing on all cylinders, but they are still very dangerous with an ability to turn it on at a moment’s notice.
What this means tonight is that the Lakers will have even less margin for error than their normally nearly nonexistent one. There is probably no team who is less inclined to forgive mistakes than San Antonio, so the Lakers mustn’t make many (any?). This starts with Jeremy Lin and Kobe Byrant.
Lin will need to avoid turnovers while still playing fast enough to try to compromise the Spurs in transition defense. He must push the ball and have nearly flawless decision making when getting into the teeth of the defense to attack. His shot/pass choices must be quick and sharp; his passes must be on time and on target. There are few teams who can be as disciplined within their team defensive schemes as the Spurs, so Lin will need to be aware of not just his man or the second line of defense, but of how his movement influences the Spurs’ defensive rotations and then make the right choices instantly. If this sounds hard, it’s because it is. We’ll see if Lin is up to it.
As for Kobe, he too must be at his best. The Spurs will throw Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard at Kobe all night and both offer quickness and smarts. Green will try to pester Kobe into taking tough shots all night and will hedge off and recover with speed to try and keep Kobe off balance. Kobe may have success against Green in the post, but will need to act quickly lest the help come and throw off his attack. As for Leonard, he brings everything Green does but with more size, better length, and extreme dexterity. He can challenge Kobe’s shots without having to be in great position but has the foot speed and anticipation to always be where he is supposed to be. Kobe would do well to try and get Leonard off balance in the P&R, but even that isn’t likely to deter the reigning Finals MVP from defending well.
What this means is that the Lakers will need to get some strong performances from others to be able to score enough points to stay in this game. Jordan Hill will need to knock down his jumper and do his normal work on the offensive glass. Ed Davis will need to be his normal efficient self, but while finding a way to use a few more possessions. Carlos Boozer will need to hit his jumpers and try to get to the line more than his normal output. It would also be nice of the “new” Wes Johnson hit a few threes.
Even if all this happens, however, the Lakers will still need to get stops. The Spurs punish defenses with expert ball and player movement. They make passes in rhythm and score at ease when defenses sleep off the ball. Further, when plays break down, Parker, Ginobili, Duncan, and Leonard can all isolate and score at an efficient clip. For every team in the league, this can turn into a nightmare scenario. For the worst defensive team in the league, they may be done before the game even gets started.
In saying all this, however, the Lakers will need to compete and let the chips fall. Every night this group plays hard. If they can combine that with more smarts than they have displayed in obtaining their 1-7 record, this game could be closer than anticipated. But even if it’s not, at least I get to see Kobe and Timmy on the floor together again. After all these years, that will still get me to tune in.
So maybe it’s still appointment viewing after all.
Where you can watch: 7:00pm start time on ESPN and TWC Sportsnet. Also listen on ESPN Radio 710AM.
agree says
There is something to be said for continuity of personnel. The spurs are just fun to watch. Great ball movement and the team first against the back-drop of over-paid egocentric stars is a nice change of pace. Listening to stars whine all the time, while they make more money per game than I could hope to ever make in a year doesn’t sit too well with me. Some of these guys need to wake up an realize how blessed and privileged they are to play a game for a living and make mega-bucks doing it.
When Tim Duncan and Kobe retire that will be the end of an era for me. I grew up watching Showtime in the 80’s but I was too young to appreciate basketball like I did in the 90’s. I do wish Kobe would have gone the Tim Duncan route and taking a bit of a pay-cut to sign on more talent. Kobe being overpaid from a basketball perspective at this point and the utter loss of 10mill to our wounded canadian pg hurt. Some of the names some of you have offered up could have been paid easily with the Nash salary plus say 6Mill less a year from Kobe. And please don’t tell me Kobe and his aggressive personality couldn’t have forced the issue and taken 18Mill/year instead. But whatever, we can be the next Hoosiers right? Except our “Jimmy” needs to start shooting 45%plus from now on, or start taking 20 shots or less from now on. Would you let Josh Smith shoot 25 shots a game? Not if you want to win, no you wouldn’t.
I pray Kobe doesn’t try and shoot 30 shots against Leonard/Green b/c those guys can play some good D.
BigCitySid says
-Yes D, seeing Kobe & Timmy on the same court at the same time is what tonight is all about…if Timmy plays tonight. You can never tell w/ Pop.
– I could be wrong but if the Lakers lose tonight and go 1-8, I believe it’ll be the franchise’s worst start thru nine games. The ’57-’58 team that started 0-7 won their next their next two games, thus going 2-7 thru nine.
-For those still interested in what’s going on w/ Phil Jackson, he says he’s going to give the Knicks until Thanksgiving to show they can work the triangle…and if not, changes will be made. Wonder what that means?
Jo Houston says
@Agree, When Duncan took the $30 Million for 3 years everyone thought he was done. No team in the NBA would have paid Duncan that money. He eventually changed his diet and lost weight. Also, please explain to me who the Lakers would have signed with that less money??? Here is the reality, if Phil Jackson had become the Coach and stayed on, Dwight Howard would have stayed and Kobe would have willingly taken less money and so would Pau. Kobe is underpaid and has been under paid all through his career. Say what you want about Kobe but he is playing big minuted and leading the league in scoring. Don’t blame Kobe for not taking less, the conditions weren’t such for him to take less. That is why management approached him and offered him the deal they offered him. As for the people who keep talking about Kobe had no options, lets be clear, the Lakers needed Kobe more than Kobe needed them. The Bobcats would have signed Kobe (S&T) this offseason if he hadn’t signed his extension. Please note too that with California’s high State tax rate even a $15 -$18 mill a year salary would have been equitable.
Robert says
Kobe Alert: At tip off, KB will tie Paul Silas for 24th in all time games. Since the last Alert, Kobe moved by MJ in all time FGAs and is now in 3rd on that list. He is also closing in on MJ in all time rebounds. Kobe made his 8,000th FT (needs 521 more to catch Moses in 2nd). Kobes notched his 422nd thirty point game and needs 7 more to get to reach KAJs 4th place rank there. So KB is moving by and trying to catch MJ, Moses, and Kareem. He must be good. KB needs 373 points to eclipse MJ.
Aaron says
I don’t know who that Jack guy was on the last thread but apperently you guys don’t need me anymore as long as he is around. I’ll check back every now and again to make sure someone here knows what they are talking about.
PurpleBlood says
Robert,
thanks (again) for the Kobe Alert, & the post on the last thread –
KO,
from the last thread as a response to you:
! wish i could be your attorney, i´d probably get a kick out of listening to you gripe about my fees! 😀
As for tonight´s match up, & by the way Darius, another great write up, i´ll go way ou on a plank and predict the following: Our boys in Purple drop a two-pointer at the buzzer to steal (mightily) a W ! (so…call me nuts!) GO LAKERS!!
Robert says
Agree: ” I do wish Kobe would have gone the Tim Duncan route and taking a bit of a pay-cut to sign on more talent.” I do not disagree in part, however I would put it a different way. I do wish the Laker FO had managed the Kobe extension better and done it more like how the Spurs management team of Holt/Buford/Pop handled the TD extension. By the way, Holt’s role – was to stay out of the way and to shake everyone’s hand at the end of the deal. He executed the role perfectly.
BCS: The Knicks, like the Lakers are likely to move from the Triangle to a Box and 1. On offense ! Melo and Kobe fill the role well !
Aaron: I liked Jack’s post as well, and he did not imply that the Lakers got in the hole by design. He merely stated (as we all are), that the choices are few and the path forward at this point is somewhat obvious in the short run.
bryan S. says
Aaron: You were separated at birth. No, really, Jack was spot on.
Jack says
No, I am not Aaron. However, I appreciate the comments.
T. Rogers says
“Listening to stars whine all the time, while they make more money per game than I could hope to ever make in a year doesn’t sit too well with me.”
It sits perfectly well with me. I couldn’t do what LeBron or Dirk does in my wildest dreams. And no one would ever tune into a telecast to watch me play. There is a reason they get paid what they do. They draws eyeballs that allow advertisers to reach consumers. And even with that both of them are still underpaid relative to what the generate.
always a triangle fan says
jack, you’re much better off on your own. aaron’s about as right as the cubs winning the word series. btw aaron, is pat riley still coming back to the lakers?
Chearn says
Part Two Continued from the last article-
Kobe. Kobe, Kobe, Kobe. This man has not played more than 60 games since…. The majority of people on this board and no doubt the NBA commissioner wishes to evanesce him into the annals of time. Now there’s a question, “Should Kobe deserve more money than Duncan?” Duncan would have retired years ago if not for Popovich, Parker, and Ginobili. Spurs owners judiciously added to this base by doing their due diligence in finding personnel to complement their core players. The Lakers did no such thing. Even though Kobe and Pau were suited for each other in temperament and on court play the Lakers alienated Pau by continually exploring trades for him. Pau could simulate Duncan’s stats while Kobe replicated Ginobili that would have left the Lakers with a search for a Parker type player and counterparts that suited Kobe and Pau. Pau needed a player like Hill (or Bynum) to augment and supplement his play. Meanwhile, Kobe remained with the organization (self-serving, yes) through years that had him on the court with players like Smush, Walton, Cook, et.al. Kobe also had the best to play with in Shaq, Fisher, Horry, et.al. So what! Kobe is the only player censured for winning a championship with others while players like Lebron, Bird, MJ, Duncan, Hakeem, Kareem, and Magic are lauded for their rings.
So does Kobe deserve more money than Duncan? Indeed he does! And, and I speak from the perspective of a person that (occasionally) pays to sit a few rows from the floor by the Lakers bench. Kobe played through the flu, hand injuries, hamstring, court appearances, groin, knee injuries, broken nose, shoulder injuries, ankle problems, and made two free-throws with a torn Achilles. After Kobe, retires and the Lakers next superstar misses games like Vince Carter, I just hope, I’m still around so I can decide whether or not to say, “I told you so.”
Scenarios with intentionally tanking are the team drafts a player like Rose, Odem, Daugherty, Ming, Manning or Bowie and they show all the signs of being a star, but injuries derail their career. So the team enters the draft the next year and erroneously chooses a player like Adam Morrison, Anthony Bennett, Andrea Bargnani, Kwame Brown, or Michael Olowakandi. Now your trajectory to a winning platform is on a six-year plan because you’re in your third year of hoping to find the next franchise player via the draft. Plus, it’ll take another three years for the players to learn how to play and win in the NBA as a team. The Clippers, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Charlotte, and New Orleans have been in the draft multiple years. In particular, the Clippers in Los Angeles have taken a decade to assemble close to an approximation of a contending team. Will fans wait 6-7 years for the team to climb to the top of the leader board via the draft?
Ko says
Why is Johnson on any NBA team. He is a zero.
Lil pau says
At the game. My section 35 percent empty. Maybe 1/3rd of people in the section cheering for the spurs. We really have become the bizarro-clips. There MUST be a price to pay in terms of jersey sales, concessions, etc, right?
Ko says
On the court now us a bad D-League team. Nice job Mitch.
Kobe showing all what happens when he won’t shoot. Replay of Sun game 7 years ago.
Anonymous says
Kobe is acting like a real punk on national TV.
Chearn says
Either he shoots too much or not enough, lol.
Has anyone ever considered that Kobe associates being assertive in a game as shooting? No one can make Lin be more aggressive with words, so it’s obvious that a player is who he is based on his mental model. Kobe has to shoot…period!
Ko says
Where is everyone tonight?
Earth to Lakers fans????
Tim says
Lakers have yet to lead at the half. Boozer probably leads the league in offensive fouls, looking forward to Nick Young coming back soon.
Chearn says
My comments are stuck in moderation. But I also don’t have anything to say that other’s haven’t said more eloquently.
Still waiting for one person on the team to act like they care about the purple and gold.
Is R. Kelley back for good or will he be out another two-three games after playing tonight? I’m happy to see him back on the floor, though.
Is there a way we can get Tony Wroten, I sure like the way he competes.
R says
Robert, thank you for the Kobe alerts. The only bright spot in this dismal season is likely to be Kobe continuing his pedal to the metal assault on all time NBA standards.
Yes, you are right: he must be good.
Now, if only he had taken a little less money …
LKK says
Matt Bonner just beat Carlos Boozer off the dribble!! Wow! I’m not going to pile on. At this point, what’s the point? The Lakers have created a lot of good shot opportunities tonight, but talent makes shots. We all know talent doesn’t reside in the Lakers’ locker room right now. The wheel will turn.
rr says
At the game. My section 35 percent empty. Maybe 1/3rd of people in the section cheering for the spurs. We really have become the bizarro-clips. There MUST be a price to pay in terms of jersey sales, concessions, etc, right?
—
I have always been a little skeptical of the Kobe-will-draw-them-in stuff. He is 36 now, and if the team is bad enough, people will tune out and stay away. Certainly, they are more of a draw with him than without him, but I think the effect will be more limited than many observers seem to think it will.
Ko says
Nice game Kobe. He look 56 tonight. Was he sick before game? Worst game he’s played ever offensively.
Ko says
rr TW will still send those $$$ mil checks regardless each year
Ko says
Glad Sacre is on the team.
Tony says
Where are the Boo Birds at Staples? The front office needs to hear it every home game.
Ko says
By far the worst team in Laker history.
Shame on you Mitch and Dimmy.
Kevin T says
At least when Kobe scores the game is a little fun to watch, I am completely bored tonight, I don’t know if he was told to be pass first shoot second but I enjoy watching the volume shooting Kobe better, the hell with the record I need Kobe to score damn it.
rr says
rr TW will still send those $$$ mil checks regardless each year
—
Wasn’t talking about that. Like LilPau said:
There MUST be a price to pay in terms of jersey sales, concessions, etc, right?
Aaron says
Shame on you Ken for wanting an 8th seeded team this year instead of a championship team in three years
Tony says
Here is the deal. In the past watching a Laker game was something that I did as a release, an escape from the daily grind. 70 to 75% of the time, for my entire life, the Lakers delivered. Now that I am a grown man with a wife and 2 kids, a small business, and working towards a graduate degree, I rely on on watching the Lakers 2 to 4 times a week to blow off some steam and be satisfied a quality experience. The product the Lakers have put on the floor for the past couple of years is not worth trading for time with the wife and kids… its just been more frustration. I know its just a game, but damn this is a baaaaad basketball team. This is not what I am used to and I cannot justify investing the time and money into something that does not deliver… at all. I would love to have the luxury to be able to waist time watching this crap, but I don’t. I love the Lakers… these are the Fakers. Hope we get a lottery pick back so that I can explain to my kids where I have been wasting my time…
Ko says
Yea your right Aaron but I also play the lottery and I know that is a loser.
Hope is all we have.
Where is Jeery West when you need him?
CEO at Time Warner must be in hiding.
Kris says
It’s not Kobe’s fault! It’s everyone else shooting 10% from the field!
LKK says
It’s plain that Kobe was way off his shot last night. But the Spurs team defense had something to do with it as well. Every time Kobe had the ball, he faced not only his man but 4 other Spurs who were cheating off their own man. Kobe did a lot of good things last night but his teammates’ lack of productivity is dragging him down. It’s hard and frustrating for him playing with this group.
TeamN says
A championship team in three years? That’s delusional.
rr — agree on the doubt regarding Kobe as a draw. I think an awful lot of myths have been put out there to rationalize bad decisions.
BigCitySid says
– The Spurs are who we thought they are
-On Duncan becoming only the 19th player to pass the 25,000 point mark: Spurs: Duncan’s teammates weren’t impressed by his latest scoring milestone: “Well, when you play 48 seasons…” Ginobili said with a laugh. Just made me wonder…could you imagine the reaction in Lakerland if a teammate said that of Kobe?
-It’s amazing how so many want to minimize Kobe’s connection to the worst start in franchise history at 1-8. Sorry, but numbers don’t lie. Kobe’s negative stats are increasing game by game. They are what they are and can’t be ignored.
-In Kevin Pelton’s simulations, he’s projecting the Lakers to win 21 games this season. Kobe Bryant is currently averaging 27.5 points per game. Only 3 players have ever averaged 25 points per game for a team that won fewer than 20 games. Kobe could join this list if he maintains his scoring average and the Lakers fall somewhere near Pelton’s projection.
[-]
Worst Team Record For Player With At Least 25 PPG – NBA History
W-L PPG
1961-62 Walt Bellamy 18-62 31.6
1959-60 Jack Twyman 19-56 31.2
1958-59 Jack Twyman 19-53 25.8
1984-85 Purvis Short 22-60 28.0
2008-09 Kevin Durant 23-59 25.3
*Elias Sports Bureau
-It’s part of “The Kobe Package”…five NBA titles, scoring titles, 81 point game on the positive side and possibly being on three of the worst Laker teams, record holder of most missed field goals in history and a growing list of other possibilities…it is what it is.
lakafan says
So Kobe was sick last night, and still BS rides him like seabiscuit! 37 minutes per game last 7 games. Unacceptable!! Give some of those minutes to the rookie Clarkson. Develop these youngsters. Everything bout our Lakers stink right now. Mgmt, coach & the players. Lose more for Okafor!!
Craig W. says
One thing I noticed watching the game last night. Whenever a player had the ball there was very little movement, never mind cutting. It was as if the other 4 players expected the person with the ball to do all the work until they could find a passing lane. The only person who moved much without the ball was Kobe, and he wasn’t without the ball that much.
Craig W. says
This is positively ridiculous. Good luck Darius.
Darius Soriano says
Craig, For the last time, I do not control the filter that holds comments for moderation. You’re not the only one who gets comments held consistently. Trust me, I know, I am the one who approves every single comment. I can understand your frustration, but I approve comments as quickly as I can considering I have other commitments in my life like a full time job and a family with two children under 4 years old. If you can’t step away and see the big picture on stuff like this, it probably is better that you don’t comment — I can only assume that’s what you mean when wishing me good luck. So, yeah. Good luck to you too.
Oldtimer says
Hard to watch last night, we used to own SA Spurs. I don’t know the current health of these players at this time but if they can still play, field Bynum, Kwame, Odom, Vujacic, Shannon add here Jamieson and Earl Clark with Kobe, I believe we will beat the hell out of this current roster. The former were swell head jobs but they put up a better defense or offense than the players created by Mitch and Jimbo referred as “rebuild” to do the tanking job. Tank you Mr. Jim Buss!
Ko says
Although it’s not my business(never stopped me before) looking at the 2 posts a minute apart by Craig I am guessing he meant the drugary of writing about this dismal team this year. It’s painfull to watch and one can only imagine how hard is must be to keep up the spirit and strength to write about this disaster daily.
You deserve a Pulitzer Prize for your efforts Darius.
Darius Soriano says
KO,
Nah, I’m nearly positive he was talking about his comment being stuck in moderation.
rr says
If Craig was talking about something other than the filter, I think it was probably all the negative stuff being said about the FO, which, as he has made clear many times, is a line of conversation that he finds both presumptuous and annoying.
The filter can be a little tiresome, but it is not a big deal, and the site is
a) good
b) free
So it is nothing to complain about.
Ko says
I like the filter. Gives me more time to retract my dumb posts.
Todd says
I know, as we all have previously discussed, that the FO can’t be honest about the team’s true likelihood of success. However, I would feel so much better if it were leaked that Jeanie was livid about this season being a culmination of all of Jim’s poor basketball decisions. I’d like to know that she’d fire Jim today if it were not for the promise she made to their dad to give Jim four years after his passing to turn this around.
I just want to know that someone in the front office has at least one foot in reality and that the mess the Lakers are will not be tolerated. Can someone please leak this information to FBG.
jerke says
Just following Darius’s tweets this am Re kobe and minutes – just the same as the Lakers and their fan base looked at the Charlotte game as being a possible “schedule win” or at least a potential tossup – Scott shouldve looked at the spurs game as a scheduled loss – and given that by halftime it’s obvious kobe is laboring and not having a good game, he shouldve just shut kobe down early. I can fully understand MDA having to ride kobe hard down the stretch two years ago to insure they got into the playoffs – but we’re not even 10 games into the season and kobe is being played high mins in games that aren’t really that close and where the reality is that the Lakers aren’t even a real threat to upset anyways. Just wish someone – Scott, kobe, mitch would just stop w the championship talk and just be straight about the realities of the situation. We get LA isn’t the 76ers – but the self delusion or trying to sell visions of grandeur that are diametrically opposed to what’s actually happening on court is just embarrassing.
Aaron says
rr,
I’m still waiting to hear your strategy to build a championship team. As you have said numerous time you don’t like my plan (the FO plan) of tanking to aquire draft picks (assets) to attract and/or trade for the best players in the game. I’m assuming you have been coming up with one the last week? The only other way to build a team in a sallary capped system is to sign above average players and hope they turn into great players. Since you can’t trade guys like Isiah Thomas and Lance Stevenson for star players.
rr says
I’m still waiting to hear your strategy to build a championship team
—
It isn’t strategy as much as it is execution. Anybody can come up with a strategy; the NBA is not, in some ways, all that complicated. The execution is the hard part. Everybody knows that the way to win in the NBA is to get a Top 5 guy and an All-Star or two with him, or to have a team with a bunch of very good and good guys 1-9 and a really good/great coach (1970-73 Knicks, 1988-90 Pistons, 2004-05 Pistons and arguably 2013-14 Spurs). Everybody knows that most champions have at least one high lottery pick in the lineup, and that therefore high lottery picks are very valuable. The trick is getting the right pick in the right year and taking the right guy with it–IOW, execution.
So, in terms of this idea that the FO is stealth-tanking, as Robert and some other people have pointed out:
a) They haven’t executed it very well, at least up to now.
b) It guarantees nothing.
I would add a
c) The NBA is always changing in some ways (even though some things never change).
and
d) I don’t entirely agree with you about what draws FAs (and each FA is a different guy with a different story).
e) There is always a strong element of luck involved.
You talk about guys like Thomas and Stephenson as if they would be obstacles to getting a top-dog FA, but I don’t think that is necessarily true. That is like arguing that Elden Campbell, Nick Van Exel, and Cedric Ceballos were obstacles to getting Shaq. FAs want to join a team with an infrastructure in place, and that usually includes some guys like Stephenson and Thomas.
So it is not that your strategy is bad per se. It is that I do not think that it is the only viable one, and I think that it is going to be very hard to execute–and that you talk about it as if it were a done deal and inarguable. Well, I don’t think so. Even if Julius Randle recovers and turns out to be good and the Lakers snag a good guy in the 2015 draft, I don’t think that will make Kevin Durant or Anthony Davis immediately think that the Lakers are the team that they want to commit to. And so on.
Aaron says
rr,
Nothing gueruntees anything. It’s about improving odds. Star pkayers now want to play with other star players. If you have players like Stevenson and Thomas on your team you wont have cap room to bring in even one star player because that star player will want to come with one, two, or three other star players.
So today Van Exel, Ceballos, and Cambell would prevent Shaq from coming. Unless they were all on cheap rookie cost controlled deals which is why accumulating draft picks is so important in today’s NBA.
J C says
Great thread.
Craig, we love you.
Come back soon!
Before we completely throw the coach and ownership “under the Buss” – (I’m so clever!) let’s remember that injuries to Nick Young and Julius Randle are definitely having an lingering effect…not to mention the loss of whatever Nash may have had to offer the team this season.
That being said, the loss of Dwight (by not retaining Phil) and now Pau (performing very well in Chicago) can be attributed directly to management and by extension possibly Kobe.
I think our current ownership will sell the team if they aren’t able to right the ship in the next 2-3 years. This would fit in with Jim’s self-imposed deadline.
If the team can’t win, why not sell and take the money? That’s a lot of hats and cameras for instagram pics.
That’s the scenario I see playing out.
Imagine what the Laker franchise would sell for.
rr says
So today Van Exel, Ceballos, and Cambell would prevent Shaq from coming. Unless they were all on cheap rookie cost controlled deals which is why accumulating draft picks is so important in today’s NBA.
—
Sure, but you are missing a key point: max salaries. No matter how mach cap space the Lakers, or anybody else, clears. they can only offer so much to any one guy. That being the case, FAs want to come to teams with a solid, projectible talent core.
As far as odds, you are missing two points:
1. What are the odds of nailing multiple lottery picks in a row, even if the Lakers are in the right draft spot?
2. What are the odds of multiple stars coming here, and who do you think they are going to be?
Like I said, it is really easy to talk about all this stuff in general terms. Specifics–execution–are the hard part.
Aaron says
rr,
Of course execution is the hard part. The easy part is the strategy. Everyone knows tanking for pics is the best strategy. There is luck (where you end up after the lottery), there is the draft class (how many good players in the draft), the talent evaluation (can the FO spot the best players), and the free agents available before you have to re sign your draft picks to big deals (killing your cap space). If the Lakers get the gold players in the draft there is litterally almost a one hundred percent chance the star free agents would rather join up to play in LA which is the best NBA market for many reasons (weather, life style) and with the Lakers you have by far the biggest earning potential as they have the most fans world wide. The chances of that plan succeeding is much greater than the odds good players in the mid 20’s like Stevenson and Thomas become great players.
There are a number of great players who will be free agents in two and three years. But having high lottery picks means you can also trade them for star players. Either way tanking for pics is the best way to go in a system that rewards losing.
Aaron says
… And yes. Free agents want to come to a good young talent core. That’s the point of tanking to get the best possible draft picks. I have already said this. If you have cost controlled good players on rookie congrats you can afford to sign the star free agents. If you sign the Stevensons and the Thomas’ of the world you have the supporting players but then you can’t afford to sign the super star players.
This is how Cle/Chi are the fav in the East and GS/SA are the favs in the west. Cle aquired multiple top picks in a row that allowed them to have cap room to sign LeBron while also giving him a good young core. Chi nailed their top draft picks in Noah and Rose and then built around them. The Warriors nailed their lottery pics in Curry and Thompson. The Spurs tanked to get Duncan after being bad enough to draft Robinson. This has been the model in the NBA for quite some time.
Years ago it was possible to draft players late in the first round because kids were coming out of HS or international players were not properly scouted. Those days are over.
Anonymous says
I think we’ll see max offers this summer to Monroe and Reggie Jackson. Those two plus a healthy Randle and a top five pick should put us on solid ground for an elite FA in 2016 or 2017.
Robert says
rr: Aaron is trying to take credit for something that many have talked about. In fact – you and I discussed a multi-year tank many times in the past. I even discussed letting Kobe go a couple of times. You were not opposed to the tank, you just thought that the Lakers were not going to go that route. And I do not think they did except unintentionally and very recently. When you have nothing of value to trade and no options, the multi-year tank is the only direction. The Sixers are doing it – does that make them brilliant? Of course not. And both you and Aaron are correct in term of the “odds”. The deck is stacked against us (your point), but there are things you can do to improve you odds – Aaron’s point. And lastly – but most importantly – you need to get lucky. I have seen no evidence of improving our odds when we could have last year (could have dumped a few players and had a better lotto position), and I see no evidence of any luck from this front office. Hence I tend to align with your thoughts. As dismal as they might be : )
R says
Well, the Clips, Warriors and raptors- and the Blazers were bad for years and now are light years ahead of the Lakers although I’d guess they are all still championship long shots. The lakers may be out of true contention for a generation.
harold says
I think it is fairly safe to assume that once Kobe’s contract clears, Lakers will get to sign anyone they want. The key is just to fill the roster with one year contracts that are just dying to prove themselves and may want to be part of Kobe’s retirement tour.
Oldtimer says
Anonymous, – let’s see the lowest 5 in the standing today are: Sixers, Lakers, T’wolves, Knicks and Nuggets. I think Lakers will improve by end of this year, most of its injured players will be coming back except Nash and Randle, more communication and chemistry developed under Scott coaching and the schedule will be on their favor. However, I think Lakers will be in the lowest 10. Therefore that Suns pick will remain with the Suns while we retain the Houston’s 1st d/p. Lakers salary will only be 36M (Kobe,Young, Randle, Kelly, Sacre and Davis). perhaps FO will hit the luxury tax (no more excuse of being on the repeater luxury tax category). After two bad seasons, the market will compel them to spend more or else a team fire sale. Well LA is just like NY, you are in a megalopolis pressure cooker, fans pay good but you got to be productive! If the Lakers have 50M budget who can they get? No need of going with the marquee players again like James and Melo, Lakers should just aim in improving the team based on positions and talents desired.If marquee players wants to come, let him join the treasure hunt once Kobe retires. Retain Davis, Price, Clarkson, Ellington and Randle and then rebuild by adding talent not subtractions. Drop all 1 year contracts and try to package Sacre, Kelly and Hill. for a better exchange.
Tanking is not a good objective based on team’s personality, history and location because it takes time before a draftee becomes seasoned. I don’t see any Bird or Magic or a franchise player from the college ranks today, I see a lot of Jabari type, Wiggins type who are merely averaged players once they play in NBA.
Hale says
The two Mikes soured me so much that I’m numb to the losing this year. It’s sad that my only emotional connection to this team is now hoping that they play Boozer 40 minutes a game. I mean, I don’t want that pick going to Phoenix at season’s end.
Aside from that, getting Clarkson and Kelly minutes is imperative. They really need to see what they have so that there might be a foundation for next season. Everyone else’s skill set is known.
Byron is starting to bug me a bit because he’s coming off as hard headed and this team is still not moving much on offense. They’re reminiscent of pee wees ball watching on the court – Very few weak side cuts and screens. That’s on the players but it’s mainly on him for not pulling their cards if they won’t comply.
dxmanners says
Lakers have become 76ers west. Really too bad about Julius R., he could have filled some valuable minutes this year. Rebuilds are painful, better to be bad at this point than mediocre for a decade. My crystal ball says Kobe and Lakers somehow get him out of here after Jan. 1.
Would like to see more Clarkson and Kelly. Nick Young will not help this, he may be moved as well-no, that’s wishful thinking, who would take on him and his contract?
These will be known as the Sacre years, when he is gone we can be considered serious again.
Not serious contenders, but a serious franchise.
lordinfamous says
darius you a diva bro…lol playing…this team man is tough to watch but i do have faith in swaggy p his ability to light it up is exactly what we need…scott needs to realize this “defense” stuff is a joke looking at this roster i mean its literally the worst possible roster of defenders imaginable i dont think the lakers win 20 games this year
lordinfamous says
hey darius just noticed your twitter feed on the side of the page…like the stuff about scott and kobe and love the notion of the possibility of phil being wary of coaching an aging superstar…kobe no less…never thought of that until now
rr says
>>>The chances of that plan succeeding is much greater than the odds good players in the mid 20’s like Stevenson and Thomas become great players.
—
That’s not what I’m saying. What I am saying is that if you have guys who have established themselves as #2-5 type guys, that
a) It is possible to clear enough cap space and/or leverage those resources to go for a big FA, especially since the cap is is supposedly going to go up a lot.
b) Some FAs will probably like having some established talent better than having a couple of 21-year-olds who are still developing.
>>>If the Lakers get the gold players in the draft there is literally almost a one hundred percent chance the star free agents would rather join up to play in LA which is the best NBA market for many reasons (weather, life style) and with the Lakers you have by far the biggest earning potential as they have the most fans world wide.
—
Sorry, no. This isn’t 1974 or 1994. You spent two years pushing the LA part of this narrative about LeBron James, and he went home to Cleveland without giving the Lakers a look. Media are different, the CBA is different, and again: each FA is different. Basically, there are only two guys out there who really are at the level that you are talking about: Durant and Davis. There is very little reason to think that Durant will want to come here. Davis–no one knows, and he may just re-sign in New Orleans for his first re-up, like most guys have. Westbrook has ties to LA, but he does not hit FA until 2017, has the injury history, and is more of a #2 guy. Marc Gasol is already pushing 30 and is more of a #2, and he will have better options than the Lakers if he wants out of Memphis. LaMarcus Aldridge is a Texan, and is in a good situation in Portland, playing for a guy who is worth billions.
As to the other element of your plan, Julius Randle is not a super prospect and is out for the year with broken leg, and at some point, another Lakers pick is going to PHX. Furthermore, there are not, as far as I know, any lock-and-load franchise anchors in the 2015 draft.
If the draft was set up the way it was in the early 1980s and there was a Shaq or a LeBron or a Kareem or a TD in the 2015 draft, I would like your narrative better.
rr says
Robert,
Well, there is nothing wrong with a multi-year tank/rebuild per se but:
1. As you suggest, they probably needed to go all-in on the strategy–try to dump Pau/Kaman/Hill last year, to try to go 18-64 instead of 27-55, not bring in Nick Young, and let Kobe walk.
2. I am, as noted, not convinced that in today’s system, that Aaron’s plan is the only route to contention. I think a team with, say, Greg Monroe, Reggie Jackson (a current teammate of KD’s) Julius Randle, and another lotto pick might be one that Durant would look at.
I think it is important to learn from history and I think it is important to have a plan. I also think it is important to be aware of what is going on in the present and to be flexible. And, looking at the franchise player chessboard, the Lakers may have to try to get back to where they were in 1995 before they have a shot to land the next franchise player.
LKK says
X. Henry and Jordan Clarkson were assigned to the D-fenders on Saturday night and scored 33 & 28 points respectively in a 130-108 loss. Apparently the D-fenders are poorly named.
karen says
Now that the 3 point shot is the big winner in todays nba, where are the voices of fanboys magic johnson, worthy who savaged mda for trying to win with the 3 pointers because he new the team buss assembled for him were bad otherwise. Oh yah scott says teams win championships by going inside the paint. How’s that working out for you scott.
BigCitySid says
How much of a role did Kobe play in Dwight’s decision not to re-sign with the Lakers…read the following interview then decide:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2265821-dwight-howard-was-hurt-and-disappointed-by-kobe-bryant-in-la?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=los-angeles-lakers
rr says
X. Henry and Jordan Clarkson were assigned to the D-fenders on Saturday night and scored 33 & 28 points respectively in a 130-108 loss.
—
I said in preseason that I thought Clarkson should probably go to the DLeague…but only if Nash could go. Since Nash is done and the team is 1-8, I think that Clarkson should be getting his reps here. Ditto Henry.
R says
Aaron, you’ve mentioned how LA is going to be such a draw for FAs wanting to come here.
Well, first of all, even if true, fyi, there’s already a successful LA franchise in place, and you know what? They are also playing in Stapels!
Leaving that aside, what is the particular draw of LA, the dirty air or the impossible traffic? Or perhaps FAs are eager to play for an ownership that shows every sign of not having a clue?
Leo says
rr: I am, as noted, not convinced that in today’s system, that Aaron’s plan is the only route to contention. I think a team with, say, Greg Monroe, Reggie Jackson (a current teammate of KD’s) Julius Randle, and another lotto pick might be one that Durant would look at.
—
While not a unique tactical execution, I also proposed that approach above, under Anon. Seems to me that a pure rebuild through the draft and prolonged tanking is far from a sure thing and likely would create some bad blood between the Lakers and their sponsors and fans.
I envision Monroe signing a one year max next summer with the Lakers so he would be free to take advantage of a rising cap the summer of 2017. In any event he’s young and can play the 4 or 5. Reggie Jackson is more of a 2 but I would definitely pursue him as we are thin at guard and in overall team talent. He would likely take a 3 year plus deal to make OKC let him go. The Thunder are more averse to the tax than any of the contending teams.
I agree with your comments above that the only two elite FA available in the next few years are KD and AD and neither are a sure bet to hit the market or consider the Lakers. So the home run strategy may require more patience than the Lakers can afford. I’m fine with hitting doubles as I think the lineup we envision with Randle, a top five pick, Monroe and Jackson can not only compete but gives the Lakers more than a punchers chance to land an elite FA in the near future.
Chearn says
I recently viewed a fascinating documentary regarding the rise and fall of the Raiders and its owner Al Davis. It seems that he alienated so many people in the Commissioner’s office and between owners that when his team started losing, they ganged up on him.
The Raiders have never gained the popularity they were previously afforded, and the previously storied franchise has become perennial bottom-dwellers. Though there is a faction of Raiders fans that persist to this day hoping that the team will rise out of their doldrums and regain a spot at the top of the leader board. It’s been longer than 10 years since the Raiders were even 7-9.
Are the Raiders a harbinger for our Lakers?
Aaron says
Robert,
I am taking credit for nothing. I said before last season started the Lakers are in the midst of a three year tank job until Kobe’s contract comes off the books.
rr,
———-
That’s not what I’m saying. What I am saying is that if you have guys who have established themselves as #2-5 type guys,
———–
Your second and third best players on a championship team are Max star players. So I am confused how you think the Lakers would attract those kinds of players without having cost controlled star or semi star players on rookie deals through the draft?
You say there is little reason to think Durant and Davis will come to the Lakers. If the Lakers hit on their draft picks and are sitting on two or three very good players in their early twenties and nothing but cap room for Davis, Durant, and another max pkayer there is little reason to think Durant and Davis would be willing to go anywhere else but Los Angeles. Whatever team has the best young talent and three max slots available is going to get the next big three. If that team is the Lakers its a no Brainer for the top free agents. If the Lakers have Lance Stevenson and Isiah Thomas and room for only one max player there is almost a zero percent chance of getting Davis or Durant.
You still are not explaining how clogging up yor cap space with above average to good players (taking away the possibility of drafting top talents because the team won’t be in the lottery) is even an option. Teams can’t dump a big portion of their roster for nothing like the Lakers did in 96 to sign Shaq. And talk about a risk. The team almost ended up with nothing. But those are the educated risks you need to take to aquire championship type talent. The Lakers aren’t in the second round business. They aren’t in the runner up Oakland business. They go all in. It’s Los Angeles. They want to win championships. It’s championships or bust. If the team has a twenty perfent chance of signing Davis and Durant they will do everything they can to get those odds up to twenty percent. Just like the team traded away an a star center and half their rotation to give them the off chance of bringing in Shaq while praying Kobe Bryant developed into a super star. Because guess what? Shaq won’t win you a ring by himself. It wasn’t till Kobe developed into a super star that the team won.
Lots of things have to happen to aquire the type of talent that wins you championships as I have noted in previos posts. You need to have cheap cost controlled quality rookies and you need to keep your books clean to have a chance at signing the superstar players. That or you just hope you have a high enough pick when a superstar player is available in the draft. But if you’re a smart team like the Lakers you play both sides. You hope to draft that kind of talent while also being available to sign that type of talent.
In today’s game signing above average talent take you out of both. You can’t draft the superstar and you dont have enough cap room or the gravitational star already on your roster to attract the additional star players.
The first or second round treadmill is the worst place to be in the NBA. You are an astute judge of talent but it seems your aren’t cracked up to be a GM.
Aaron says
rr,
———–
I am, as noted, not convinced that in today’s system, that Aaron’s plan is the only route to contention. I think a team with, say, Greg Monroe, Reggie Jackson (a current teammate of KD’s) Julius Randle, and another lotto pick might be one that Durant would look at.
—————
I like how you throw out (another lotto pick). These lottery picks wouldn’t be here if the team was signing Monroe and Jackson type players. Now as I have said it is possible they don’t want to chance not getting a top three pick next year. In which case I am sure they will try to trade for an actual star player this summer instead of paying max money for a semi star/above avg player.
There is no way Durant would even think of joining a team with that little talent. Why would he leave a team with significantly less talent than the one he is on. He would of course join that team of it had enough cap room to sign Anthony Davis the following year. But of course that would not be possible if you are wasting money on that kind of above average talent.
Aaron says
rr,
Sorry last quick post. My point about what really is risky is this… it’s riskier to sign guys like Reggie Jackson and Monroe because not only does it decrease your chances to zero of landing the three max free agents you need to compete for and win championships… but it completely wipes away the possibility of obtaining those types of players in the draft. If you strike out on your draft picks (there for striking out in free agency) you are bad enough to have more tries in the lottery to eventually hit those draft picks there for having more attempts of winning in free agency. You’re still in the game.
Your route you have that one long shot try. If you fail you then are basically forced to resign your lottery picks and that completelty wipes away the little cap room you had.
Robert says
Aaron: You did say that. However if the Lakers were trying to tank last year – they did a bad job of it. And no it was not all MD’s fault. Did I just say that? : ) They probably are tanking now, but they have no choice, we put ourselves in a hole. By the way, I agree with many of your points. I prefer to go the route of the mega super star. The Lakers have always won that way. We will not be the 2004 Pistons, so why even go down that path. However, going all in (just like in poker) can be painful. For example if you go all in on a line up of DH, Nash, Gasol, and Kobe, you could be left with a 20 win team.
Chearn: Yes – your Raiders comparison is good. Our ownership emulates – Jerry Jones, Al Davis (RIP), or George Steinbrenner (RIP). Meddling owners who also want to manage and play fantasy sports. It is a thing of the past. All of the three mentioned won titles and then got completely full of themselves. Not sure how that happened with the current ownership as titles are zero.
BCS: Kobe deserves some blame for a few things, but you are way too focused on him. He did not offer himself the contract extension, he did not lose DH (although he was not a plus), and he did not set up a situation where he is the only top notch player on the team. Further, your desire to have a Kobeless Lakers will eventually be here, with or without your urging. You should join me on my quest, as the wait for my goal is far less certain : ) And I do not want to wait 3-4 more years : )
Chearn says
Oh no, Aaron Gordon out indefinitely for a broken bone in his foot. He was the player I wanted the Lakers to draft based on his athleticism…too bad. This draft class is injury prone, Embiid has not even taken the court.
rr says
Aaron,
Only one team has signed three max free agents at the same time: the 2010 Heat, and that was a totally unique set of circumstances, two years in the making. The other team that will have three max guys next year will be, again: LeBron James’ team, assuming that Love stays in Cleveland. No one else has three max guys that actually deserve max deals under contract. That works if you have James, since he covers enough skills by himself that you can use roster spots on guys who can do one or two things, like Mike Miller. Failing that, you are playing a different game of team-building like the Spurs, Warriors, Bulls, and Clippers are.
One of your biggest problems is that you don’t really understand the history of the Lakers, or the circumstances that brought Wilt, Kareem, Shaq, Pau, and Howard here. The Lakers’ champions/contenders have always been anchored by an inside/outside combo of HOFers:
Mikan/Martin
West/Baylor
West/Chamberlain
Magic/Kareem
Shaq/Kobe
Kobe/Pau
So, Buss and Kupchak apparently realized this, and decided to make the next pairing Paul/Howard. They came close to pulling it off, but they didn’t, and the quadruple-whammy of the Veto, the Nash deal, Howard’s walking, and Kobe’s contract have put the franchise in the toilet. But notice something: they didn’t set up to get Paul and Howard by tanking and praying for awesome lottery picks–they used stuff/players they had on hand to trade for them.
The Lakers have never, at any time, actually done what you are suggesting they are doing now. That doesn’t mean it is not a good idea, but it does show that you don’t really know your Lakers history. There was no “gravitational star” when either Kareem or Shaq came here. What West did was leverage players that he had acquired to make the Lakers attractive to Shaq, including using Vlade to get the rights to Kobe.
So, you are assuming that guys like Monroe, Jackson, etc., are dead-ends. They’re not. They can be plusses, if leveraged correctly. But you miss that because you buy into memes and your thinking is too linear.
As to Durant and Davis, again: learn your history. Chamberlain came to LA at a time when it really was the place to be in the NBA, the Forum was new, TV stars attending games was a big deal, the NBA was just getting heavy national TV exposure, and Jack Kent Cooke paid Wilt 250K in an era when Jerry West was making 100. Kareem wanted to be in NY, his hometown, or LA, where he had attended college. He had already won at every level, so he was OK joining a bad team. Shaq wanted to be in show biz, and joined the Lakers in the pre-internet era, when it was a lot easier to be in the movies if you played here. That is not the case now–in the digital age, any player with enough money and face recognition can get himself on screen. Pau and Howard were also traded here, again, by using stuff the Lakers had on hand.
Now look at Durant. He is very connected to OKC, and to DC. He has no ties of any kind to Los Angeles. There is already speculation out there to the effect that he will either stay in OKC or go home to DC. He has already been in a movie. I will make one claim: if he goes elsewhere, it will be to join a team that he thinks can win RIGHT NOW–not to a team that has a couple of pretty good young guys and will be one of 15 teams clearing cap space to make a run at Anthony Davis in a year or two. And as to Davis, he may break the pattern of recent young stars and hit the market sooner than other guys have been doing, what with the new cap space opening up. But again, he has no ties of any kind to Los Angeles. He grew in Chicago and went to college at Kentucky. There are three all-stars who do have LA connections, none of whom seems likely to come here: Love, who will probably stay in Cleveland; George, who is rehabbing and who has already re-upped in Indiana; and Westbrook, who will not hit FA until 2017 and has already suffered several injuries.
So, I am not seeing why you think that playing for the Lakers will be some big draw for either Durant and Davis. You tried to sell this once already, and you were wrong.
To be clear here, I am not saying that the Lakers should necessarily go out and sign Monroe and Jackson, or that you are wrong about what they should do. What I am saying is that there is more than one way to look at the situation, and that your theory has a lot of holes in it.
rr says
Aaron,
Randle is one lotto pick; the guy coming this year is the other one. Or do you need three?
Long reply stuck in mod.